This morning in Bovary, Ukraine a helicopter carrying Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrsky, his deputy Yevhen Yenin, and state secretary Yuriy Lubkovich crashed into a school. The three were killed, as well as several others aboard the helicopter and a number of people on the ground including 3 children.
I can’t believe Minister Monastyrsky is gone. He was at Zelensky’s side before dawn on the day of the invasion, one of the bravest men I’ve gotten to know since then. Devastating loss for Ukraine. My deepest condolences to all the victims’ families and friends. Unbearable https://t.co/I9mhkoUa8E
— Simon Shuster (@shustry) January 18, 2023
Here’s the details from The Financial Times:
Ukraine’s State Emergency Service and interior ministry said 25 people had also been wounded, including 11 children, when the helicopter crashed in Brovary, an eastern suburb. Authorities had initially said 18 people died in the incident, including three children, before revising the figures.
It was not immediately clear whether the crash was an accident or related to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There has not been any fighting in the Kyiv region since April, when Russian troops retreated after failing to capture the capital.
“Today a terrible tragedy occurred in Brovary. The pain is unspeakable. The helicopter fell on the territory of one of the kindergartens,” said Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Telegram. “I have instructed the Security Service of Ukraine, in co-operation with the National Police of Ukraine and other authorised bodies, to find out all the circumstances of what happened.”
Anton Gerashchenko, an interior ministry adviser, said: “The causes of the tragedy are being established. Whether it was sabotage, a technical malfunction, a violation of flight safety rules, we will soon find out.”
The helicopter belonged to the SES, which said the crash occurred at 8.20am. A building belonging to the emergency service, a 14-storey residential building and three vehicles were damaged, along with the nursery school. A fire broke out at the scene but was extinguished an hour later, according to the SES.
Ihor Klymenko, chief of the national police, wrote on Facebook that Denys Monastyrsky, interior minister, as well as his deputy Yevhen Yenin and state secretary Yuriy Lubkovich, a senior ministry official, were killed. Zelenskyy called all three “true patriots of Ukraine”.
Klymenko, who will oversee the ministry until Monastyrsky’s successor is appointed, said all nine adults on board the helicopter, including SES crew members and ministry staff, were among the dead. The helicopter was flying from the capital to Kharkiv when it crashed, according to Volodymyr Tymoshenko, the north-eastern region’s chief of police.
“It’s tragic. So far there is no evidence that it was anything other than a tragic accident,” Ben Wallace, UK defence secretary, told reporters in Belfast. “This does not change our resolve.”
Videos and photographs shared by authorities showed the smouldering wreckage of the helicopter near the entrance of a building and bodies on the ground nearby.
Yuriy Ignat, a spokesperson for the air force, said the helicopter was an AS332 Super Puma that had been given to Ukraine by France. Ignat said the helicopters were intended specifically for the SES and interior ministry and that they had been used for tasks “closer to hostilities”.
Kindergarten in Brovary. Just. Don’t have any words. pic.twitter.com/owxs5I8x4Y
— Oleksiy Goncharenko (@GoncharenkoUa) January 18, 2023
Adviser to Minister of Internal Affairs Gerashchenko published last photo with Monastyrsky, who tragically died in the helicopter crash today.
"The last report of Minister of Internal Affairs to the President on death of civilians in Dnipro. This photo was taken yesterday…" pic.twitter.com/WHILXvtO9W
— UNITED24.media (@United24media) January 18, 2023
The video and English transcript of President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today will be after the jump:
Ukrainians!
Another day of this terrible war, these tragedies that our people are going through, is coming to an end. A terrible day that we must go through, must endure. And we will endure.
The rescue operation lasted almost nine hours in Brovary, Kyiv region, on the scene of the crash of a SES helicopter. Hundreds of people were involved in extinguishing the fire, searching and rescuing the injured, carrying out the initial investigative actions. Our rescuers, police officers, National Guard soldiers, doctors, psychologists, employees of the Security Service of Ukraine.
I thank everyone involved in this rescue operation today.
I would like to thank the educators of the kindergarten on the territory of which the helicopter crashed. Mrs. Ruslana, Mrs. Olena, Mrs. Tamara, Mrs. Kateryna and all the employees of the kindergarten – I thank you! Thank you for your bold actions, for taking the children out.
I would also like to thank the ordinary residents of Brovary, in particular Mrs. Diana, Mrs. Nadiya and others who helped both the children and the wounded.
I am grateful to Hlib and Andriy, the guys who also kept self-control and helped.
25 people were injured, including 11 children. 14 people were killed, including one child. My condolences to all those who lost their loved ones!
The Security Service of Ukraine has initiated a criminal investigation into this terrible event. I have instructed the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, in cooperation with all other authorized bodies, to clarify all the circumstances of the crash.
Today, all the necessary decisions were made regarding the management of the Ministry of Internal Affairs system. We have lost people who were professionals, patriots and reliable managers. Minister Denys Monastyrskyi, Yevhen Yenin, and their colleagues who died in the crash are not people who can be easily replaced. It is a truly great loss for the state. My condolences to the families.
The Ministry will be temporarily headed by the Head of the National Police of Ukraine. The tasks for which the Minister was responsible in the context of our defense operation and ensuring the security of the state have also been distributed. The border, the situation in the frontline area, the participation of the National Guard and the police in the fighting are under control.
As soon as clear facts are established as to what exactly led to the crash, we will provide this information.
Today, as always, we have been in touch with our military all day long. The situation at the front remains difficult, with the epicenter of the most fierce and principled battles in Donbas.
We notice a gradual increase in the number of shelling occasions and attempts at offensive actions by the occupiers.
I am grateful to all our warriors who are holding their positions! I thank the warriors of the 68th separate hunting brigade and the 36th separate marine brigade for hitting the enemy very effectively and for the resilience we need in Donbas!
I also thank the units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine for the actions that reduce the chances of the occupiers.
Today it was announced that Canada is preparing a powerful defense assistance package for Ukraine. In particular, it will include armored vehicles. This is very timely and significant. I thank Canada for its continued support and for the fact that we are preparing together for Russia’s attempt to intensify its attacks. No one in the world today will remain unaware of the plans of the terrorist state.
I took part in the Davos Forum. The message from Ukraine is very simple and honest: no one in the free world has the opportunity to dawdle now.
I know that in the near future there will be new and really necessary steps in support of our defense. We will do our best to ensure that there are as many such steps as necessary to defeat the terrorists.
Glory to all our warriors!
Eternal memory to all Ukrainians who died because of the war unleashed by Russia!
Glory to Ukraine!
Monastyrsky was a decent minister, especially in contrast with his predecessor Avakov.
Very friendly, modest, easy to reach out to, well-informed, particularly regarding his ministry’s combat units in the war zone. I met him quite a few times, and the impression was good.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 18, 2023
I did not know the other two Interior Ministry top officials killed in the crash, Yuriy Lubkovych and Tetiana Shulyak. But they altogether were a good wartime team, way better than what we had before.
R.I.P.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 18, 2023
Here is the statement from President Biden and the First Lady regarding the crash in Bovary:
JANUARY 18, 2023
Statement of President Joe Biden and First Lady Jill Biden on Helicopter Crash in Ukraine
BRIEFING ROOM STATEMENTS AND RELEASESJill and I send our deepest condolences to the families of all those killed in the tragic helicopter crash in Ukraine this morning, including Minister of Internal Affairs Denys Monastyrskyy and other senior Ukrainian government officials. Our hearts are also with the dozens of civilians who were killed or injured, including precious children, and their families. We grieve with all those who are mourning this heartbreaking tragedy. Mr. Monastyrskyy and his team were deeply involved in the preservation of Ukraine’s democracy—both its defense against Russian aggression, and the vital work of reforms to strengthen Ukraine’s institutions through this war and into the future. A reformer and patriot, Mr. Monastyrskyy championed the will of the Ukrainian people. We will continue to honor that legacy through efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s institutions, and in our unfailing partnership with the people of Ukraine to keep the flame of freedom bright. Today, we are praying for healing for the wounded and comfort for those who have lost loved ones. The United States stands with the people of Ukraine in the face of this tragedy, and for as long as it takes.
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessment of the situations in Soledar and Bakhmut:
SOLEDAR MINES /1250 UTC 19 JAN/ The main objective of the RU effort at Soledar was the cutting of the Bakhmut highway. This effort failed. UKR forces maintain control of the vital T-05-13 HWY West of Soledar and continue to hold RU forces short of the rail station at Blahodatne. pic.twitter.com/cpYLnTbcqN
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 18, 2023
BAKHMUT AXIS / 1320 UTC 18 JAN/ RU units continue efforts to cut the T-05-13 HWY N of Bakhmut at Krasna & Podhorodne. While presently contained, the Kurdiumivka salient poses a significant threat to the vital H-32 HWY. UKR morale in the Bakhmut Area of Operations (AO) is high. pic.twitter.com/W04yHhLlfF
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 18, 2023
Bakhmut:
Vydma [Witch] in Bakhmut today. pic.twitter.com/7ZXgpTvyvW
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 18, 2023
Bakhmut and Soledar:
Update from Soledar/Bakhmut, 18 January. Soledar – the enemy is being destroyed in the city. Bakhmut – defense is holding, high command fully aware of the operational situation – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/AvfimJmoYq
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) January 18, 2023
We have some updates on weapons supplies for Ukraine. First up, Canada!
200 Senator armored personnel carriers from Canada to Ukraine. https://t.co/FXg3bNH1lW
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 18, 2023
Next the US, Politico has the details:
The U.S. is gearing up to announce a major new weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, as top military leaders from around the world gather in Germany to discuss how to help Kyiv in its fight against Russia, according to three U.S. officials and another person familiar with the discussions.
While the next tranche will include additional artillery, ammunition and armor — likely Stryker armored combat vehicles — the U.S. is not expected to sign off on American M1 Abrams tanks, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the talks ahead of an announcement.
The Biden administration currently has no plans to send the Abrams, the Army’s 60-ton main battle tank, the people said.
The reluctance is due to the logistical and maintenance challenges of the tanks, and not over concern that their transfer could escalate the conflict, one of the U.S. officials said. This person noted that the U.S. has helped Ukraine obtain Soviet-era tanks and supports the British decision to send around a dozen of its Challenger 2 tanks.
The package will likely include a number of Strykers, an eight-wheeled armored fighting vehicle built by General Dynamics Land Systems, as well as ground-launched Small Diameter Bombs, which have a range of roughly 100 miles, two of the people said. POLITICO first reported last week that the Pentagon was considering sending Strykers in the upcoming tranche of aid. Reuters first reported that Boeing-made Small Diameter Bombs were under discussion.
This package will not include the long-range Army Tactical Missile System that can reach deep behind Russian lines in Crimea or the Donbas, according to two of the people. The Biden administration has balked at sending long-range munitions, despite Kyiv’s pleas, for fear of provoking Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The administration believes Ukraine can “change the dynamic on the battlefield” and repel Russian invaders without those missiles, an offensive weapon that can fly up to 190 miles, said Colin Kahl, the Pentagon’s top policy official.
“Our judgment to date has been that the juice isn’t really working the squeeze on the ATACMs. You never know, that judgment at some point could change, but we’re not there yet on the ATACMs,” Kahl told reporters after a trip to Kyiv this weekend.The White House has not yet signed off on the package, which is still being finalized and could change this week. But officials expect an announcement around the regular Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday, where Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley will meet with their counterparts to discuss new Ukraine aid.
*Strykers.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 18, 2023
More from the US, from The NY Times:
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials say.
The stockpile provides arms and ammunition for the Pentagon to use in Middle East conflicts. The United States has also allowed Israel to access the supplies in emergencies.
The Ukraine conflict has become an artillery-driven war of attrition, with each side lobbing thousands of shells every day. Ukraine has run low on munitions for its Soviet-era weaponry and has largely shifted to firing artillery and rounds donated by the United States and other Western allies.
Artillery constitutes the backbone of ground combat firepower for both Ukraine and Russia, and the war’s outcome may hinge on which side runs out of ammunition first, military analysts say. With stockpiles in the United States strained and American arms makers not yet able to keep up with the pace of Ukraine’s battlefield operations, the Pentagon has turned to two alternative supplies of shells to bridge the gap: one in South Korea and the one in Israel, whose use in the Ukraine war has not been previously reported.
The shipment of hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from the two stockpiles to help sustain Ukraine’s war effort is a story about the limits of America’s industrial base and the diplomatic sensitivities of two vital U.S. allies that have publicly committed not to send lethal military aid to Ukraine.
Israel has consistently refused to supply weapons to Ukraine out of fear of damaging relations with Moscow and initially expressed concerns about appearing complicit in arming Ukraine if the Pentagon drew its munitions from the stockpile. About half of the 300,000 rounds destined for Ukraine have already been shipped to Europe and will eventually be delivered through Poland, Israeli and American officials said.
Arming the Ukrainian military with enough artillery ammunition is part of a larger American-led effort to increase its overall combat power by also providing more precision long-range weapons, Western tanks and armored fighting vehicles, and combined arms training.
The United States has so far sent or pledged to send Ukraine just over one million 155-millimeter shells. A sizable portion of that — though less than half — has come from the stockpiles in Israel and South Korea, a senior U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters.
Much more at the link!
Germany…
Obtuse, perverse and idiotic. “Germany won’t allow allies to ship German-made tanks to Ukraine to help its defense against Russia nor send its own systems unless the U.S. agrees to send American-made battle tanks, senior German officials said on Wednesday” https://t.co/K6uthyawdh
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 18, 2023
Anyway the obvious answer is for the WH to supply an entirely token number of Abrams to undercut this ridiculous excuse for inaction (and obstruction) https://t.co/txUgGCNufr
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) January 18, 2023
I was worried about this when a number of notably pro-Russian elites and notables were celebrating the new German Defense Minister’s appointment. This is absolutely stupid. It’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the NATO allies respond to this over the next couple of days. It’ll also be interesting to see whether or not the US calls Germany’s bluff and sends a token number of Abrams to Ukraine.
I would not want to be German Defense Minister Pistorius:
Wheels down in Berlin. I look forward to meeting with 🇩🇪 German Minister of Defense Pistorius and Federal Minister Schmidt, to discuss our shared defense priorities and enhanced cooperation among democracies. pic.twitter.com/JxJ3D0D3Pe
— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) January 18, 2023
Before we get to our daily Patron, I want to put a plug in for someone. I’ve been looking for almost a year for a Ukrainian national hockey team jersey. The couple of sites I found that sold them looked really sketchy. One was actually a US site, linked to a Russian provider, and I could’ve ordered a Black Sea Cossacks hockey jersey. Boizhe Moi! Anyhow, I recently read that Ukraine’s under 20 national team is doing a tour in Canada playing university teams and decided to see what I could find. Not much luck. So I emailed our resident Ukraine expert Gin&Tonic who sent back this reply:
I’m handicapped by the fact that I know approximately zero about hockey, and wouldn’t know an official jersey from a fake. That said, there’s a guy up in Canada who runs a site called the Ukraine Music & Gift Shop that has a large selection of hockey jerseys – but again, I don’t know what’s official and what’s current. Earlier this year, though, when Ukraine was in the World cup qualifying, the only way to get an “official” current soccer jersey was in Ukraine.
Let me know how it works out.
So I clicked through and the first one is for Fedotenko, who played his NHL hockey for the Tampa Bay Lightning. And I start getting exited until I see it’s out of stock. I scroll down and down past out of stock after out of stock and then at the bottom are the current home and away jerseys. I open both windows and they’ve got them in XXL, which is the size of my other hockey jerseys: Avalanche Patrick Roy, Chicago Blackhawks Winter Classic Khabibulin, Tampa Bay Lightning, Calgary Hitmen, US Army. Look, I can stop anytime! No, that’s not a Maori All Blacks, Australian Wallabies Indigenous pattern World Cup, Irish national team, and Team USA Eagles rugby jersey hanging there near the hockey jerseys. Why would you even insinuate something like that…
Anyhow, I order the home jersey in XXL. This morning I get an email from the store’s owner informing me they run really big. As in the XXL is really a XXXL. He recommends the XL, but only has it in the away jersey. I emailed that I’d pull mine out of the closest and take measurements and call him, which I did. The biggest of them is 29 inches across the chest and the smallest XXL is 26 across the chest. He checked the measurements on his stock and the XXL is 31 inches and XL is 28. So I told him I’d go with the XL away jersey. It ships tomorrow.
Really nice guy, great customer service, I’m looking forward to getting it.
If you’re interested Ukrainian music, art, sports team gear, embroidery, and a bunch of other stuff, click across and take a look.
Your daily Patron!
Patron only retweeted the Ukrainian State Emergency Service’s tweet about the Bovary crash. Patron and his human are sappers with the State Emergency Service, which abbreviates in English as DSNS:
As of 12.30 hrs, as a result of the emergency situation, 16 persons, including 3 children, have died.
30 persons were injured (12 children), who were hospitalized (information is being clarified).https://t.co/Ov25XQZcem pic.twitter.com/HUTCnQUbmo
— DSNS.GOV.UA (@SESU_UA) January 18, 2023
Here’s their statement:
Official information of the State Emergency Service on the emergency situation related to the plane crash in the Kyiv region
18.01.2023 16:00
On January 18 at 08:20hrs, as a result of the of the SESU ES-225 helicopter (flight number 54) crash in Brovary city of Kyiv region, the building of a preschool educational institution was damaged with subsequent fire, glazing in a fourteen-story residential building and 3 cars got broken. At 09:06hrs the fire in the building was contained on an area of 500 sq. m., and at 09:28 hrs it was extinguished.
On board there were 9 persons: 6 members of the operational group of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, including the leadership of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as 3 members of the crew of the State Emergency Service.
As of 12.30 hrs, as a result of the emergency situation, 16 persons, including 3 children, have died.
30 persons were injured (12 children), who were hospitalized (information is being clarified).
127 personnel and 30 vehicles from the SES have been engaged in the elimination of the consequences of the emergency. Psychologists of the SES are working at the scene.
As of 15:00hrs, according to updated information after the identification of bodies, 14 dead people were identified, including 1 child and 9 persons, who were on board. 25 persons were injured (including 11 children) and hospitalized (information is being clarified).
Psychologists of the SES provided assistance to 51 persons.65 personnel and 12 vehicles from the SES are engaged, including cynological crew and 3 rescue departments of the Rapid Response Mobile Rescue Center.
The MOG of the State Emergency Service is working at the emergencye site.
As of 3:30 p.m., search and rescue operations have been completed.
Additionally: the SES helicopter ES-225 (flight number 54) was repeatedly engaged in the tasks for the transportation of the personnel to the emergency situations sites. Among the aircrafts of the Ministry of Internal Affairs system, this board was most often used, given the ability to simultaneously transport a sufficient number of people. The crew of the helicopter was trained to perform tasks under difficult conditions, had the required number of hours of flight time on the EU-225 helicopters.The Mobile Operational Group of the State Emergency Service is working at the site of the emergency.
So here’s something a little more uplifting to end on:
Ukrainians, man… 💙💛
Kyiv’s Teatralna metro this evening. pic.twitter.com/7TdElOj1Tt
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 18, 2023
All cats love boxes.#uaarmy #Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #Donetsk
#NewYork #Kyiv #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/e3hG6u7eJB— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) January 17, 2023
Kiss.#uaarmy #Ukraine️ #RussiaisATerroistState #RussiaUkraineWar #CatsOfTwitter #CatsOnTwitter #Bakhmut #Donetsk
#NewYork #Kyiv #StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/dcLVTSaSeW— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) January 18, 2023
Open thread!
Omnes Omnibus
Just remember, choppers crash all the time.
Gin & Tonic
I’m glad you posted that Chris Miller Tweet about dancing in the metro station – saves me the trouble. Teatralna (meaning “of the theater”) station is known for dancing, there’s a commemorative plaque/sculpture there to that effect.
Gin & Tonic
@Omnes Omnibus: I hope they only crash some of the time.
Gin & Tonic
Oh, last comment, for now. The death toll at the kindergarten/day care was revised downward later in the day, to only one child.
Jay
Omnes Omnibus
@Gin & Tonic:
Eventually they all will. It’s what they do.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: Good news. Or, at least improved news.
Jay
Carlo Graziani
Moscow Times story on Russians leaving sorrowful memorials to the dead from the Dnipro missile strike at Ukraine-related monuments around the country, some getting arrested for it.
Jay
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Today’s installment of the Leopard saga is infuriating. However, it is noteworthy that the source is “Senior German officials”, rather than any named minister. Very likely a Bundesrepublik civil servant speaking out of turn, and deeply and needlessly embarrassing his government and its key ally at a delicate time with a boneheaded proposal. Likely recipient of strap marks across the ass, IMO, but we’ll see in the next day or two whether the government owns or disowns that imbecilic statement.
Searcher
In a sane world, a helicopter crashing into a school would be one of the largest tragedies in a country in a year or more.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: Lesya Ukrainka (a pseudonym) was an interesting figure. Born in 1871, she was very much a Ukrainian nationalist – she wrote in Ukrainian, a language that was banned by the Russian Empire at the time, so her works had to be published in western Ukraine, then under the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and smuggled into Kyiv. She was opposed to the tsarist empire from a left perspective, though, and was an avowed Marxist. That’s probably why her monument was erected in Moscow, back when russia pretended to be Marxist-Leninist.
Inconvenient for the Ukrainians=Nazis narrative.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: This latest piece of bullshit really rankles. I mean, for 75 years the US has put our national destruction on the line to protect Western Europe (including Germany) from Russian nukes. And we’ve sent enough weapons that there’s no way Russia doesn’t look at us as their adversary’s chief supporter in this war. And yet that’s not enough? I mean, does Germany really think that if Russia attacks them, we’ll stand idly by? What kind of bullshit is this? When you’re dealing with *allies* you’re not supposed to have to figure out “I know, we’ll send a token number of Abrams, that’ll shut ’em up!” games. Fer crissake.
Ixnay
@Omnes Omnibus: indeed. Airplanes fly. Choppers beat the air into submission.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy:
I don’t know if the leak above is meaningful or not, but there are other voices speaking up in Germany. Opinion piece by Roman Goncharenko on DW:
The Contact Group meeting is Thursday at Ramstein, with press conferences, etc., on Friday. We should know more soon.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
@Chetan Murthy:
There were a couple of posts yesterday on Social Media, bitching about Trudeau’s remarks, and The Netherlands, regarding “free the Leopards”. We have 100 Leopard 2’s C6, bought because our 1960’s Leopard 1’s were way too old in 2000, and we bought less Leopard 2’s than Leopard 1’s we retired. The Netherlands have 16, leased from Germany. Germany had only a bit more than the mid 300’s, operational, and several thousand Cold War veteran’s needing major upgrades, at best, the pipe can be turned on in 2024.
Nobody, but the US has surplus MBT’s in shape to send to Ukraine, and the US has only a couple hundred. The UK’s Challenger II donation strips 1 of 3 tank battalions of tanks. Poland is planning, ( but hasn’t yet filled out the paperwork), to swap Leopard 2’s for K2’s, as the K2’s come “online”, the units “old” Leopards can be set free to roam the steppes.
There is a crapload of CYA and vapourware, going on, piled on by a bunch of Majickal thinking, the “one key trick”,……..
NATO is not going to disarm, to arm Ukraine, not now.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
If this were true, then Germany would grant permission to Poland et al to transfer Leopards, knowing that they couldn’t actually do it. Instead, Germany piles on pretext-after-pretext for doing nothing. And if you’re right, it also means that Germany *also* has no intention of transferring Leopards anytime in the next year, and so again, their piling on pretexts is just obfuscation.
ETA: Am I missing something?
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
Poland has one Battalion of Leopard 2’s made surplus from K 2 deliveries and the K 2 Unit passing “operational status”.
50 Leopard 2’s, but Poland has not done the paperwork to formally apply to Germany to transfer the Leopards to Ukraine.
They havn’t even applied, let alone have the paperwork grind it’s way through the German Bureaucracy.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Jay, again, it seems like one could interpret this one of two ways:
Geez. It’s no wonder the US has to save these lily-livered cowards’ asses every goddamn time they get in trouble.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: As you say. However, the constructive (or at least not passive-aggressive) policy statement by a German government that truly expected to need its MBTs in the near future would be to ask the US to supply Abrams and supporting infrastructure to Germany, as a temporary measure, while they resurrect their Leopard supply chain, so as to make up for the departure of their existing stock of Leopard IIs to Ukraine.
Given that the current threat to German territory, to the extent that it exists at all, is years away, whereas the threat to Ukraine is clear and present, and that Germany is a full-up NATO ally, with experience in the deployment process of new NATO weapons systems, this would constitute an entirely reasonable ask, and not come across as yet another obdurate gesture of obstruction born of an unwillingness in German political circles to divest themselves of the intellectual legacy of Ostpolitik.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
#3, assorted people are getting way out front of the paperwork, given the “Free the Leopards” campaign,
Really,…..really,….. the Netherlands is venal for not sending all 16 “leased” Leopards to Ukraine already,……… they have sent a shit load of stuff they already own and can barely afford to send,………
remember that 2% Reichwing BS from a little while ago, for NATO, that nobody but the US hit, and that was mostly inventory meant for Chyna and the Middle East,……..
When it is starting to look like Russia is going to go “west”, it’s not the time to gut NATO arsenals, when there is no backfilling.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
If this is the real position, then all the talk about Leopards is just that: talk, eh? Nobody actually means to send UA any MBTs (other than those Challengers, I guess). Which …. well, like I said: no wonder we have to bail out these cowards every time they stub a toe. Y’know, I guess I’d understand it and even maybe support it, before TFG. But now that every four years the US risks going Fascist and *joining* Putin, you’d think that Western Europe would, y’know, pull their heads outta their asses and actually act to secure their own defense.
Guess not.
Chetan Murthy
@Jay: Jay, re-reading your comment, I finally understood some of it. Look: ISTM exactly one of the following two statements is true:
If #2 is true, then Germany loses nothing by saying “yes, we will approve all transfers as soon as they come to us”. If #1 is true, then Germany is holding things up.
One of the two *must* be true. You’re telling me it’s #2, but even then, Germany is not helping, and in fact making things, worse, b/c instead of making it clear that NATO needs to get their act in gear (I mean, sure maybe NL can’t send any, but FFS, Spain isn’t exactly in danger of Russian invasion ….) and pronto.
Butter Emails
@Jay:
This is sort of the same BS I see in the US about undermining our own national security by sending equipment built to fight Russia to Ukraine to fight Russia because we might need it to fight Russia except even more nonsensical because the US at least has a military doctrine that anticipates fighting multiple near peers simultaneously.
Every piece of equipment sent to Ukraine means that Russia needs to devote and lose that much more manpower, equipment and resources in Ukraine. That is manpower, equipment and resources that won’t be available to roll across Poland, blitz through Germany and crush Dutch cyclists as it parades up Damrak.
Chetan Murthy
@Butter Emails: Let’s suppose that it’s true. Then that makes it even more imperative for NATO countries to join together and figure out where they can move some tanks that’ll be the safest. E.g. Spain. Not to just spin out a long tale for why they can’t do shit.
Boy howdy the CEE countries are so damn right about not trusting the rest of the EU.
Chetan Murthy
Meanwhile Bulgaria: https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-volodymyr-zelenskyy-kiril-petkov-poorest-country-eu-ukraine/
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: I disagree. I think NATO countries (other than the Baltics & Finland, + Poland as a reserve) have less pressing need for heavy armor now than before 2/24. The Russian military is no shape to take on NATO while the war in Ukraine is still going on, & won’t be for a long time after the war ends. If somehow Putin becomes suicidal & attacks NATO during or after the war in Ukraine, there is always the US Army & National Guard to provide the armored fist, NATO air power will dominate the shambled remains of Russian frontal aviation, & the Baltics/Finland/Poland can employ the same delay & hit & run tactics that Ukraine employed so effectively to stall the initial offensive.
NATO countries do not need to send Ukraine the most modern modern Leopard 2A5/6/7+ models, the Leopard 2A4s (the most numerous model around the world) should suffice. Turkey is a big operator of Leopard 2A4s (~ 300). The A4s are still competitive/slightly superior to the modernized T-72s & T-80s in Russian services, significantly better than the early model T-72s & T-62s that the Russians are digging out of Cold War inventories, & certainly better than the T-64s that the Ukrainian Army is still using. The Ukrainian Army does not need thousands of Leopard 2s. A couple of hundred would be enough to stand up a corps to make a real difference in one theater come summer.
The UK is only sending 10 Challenger 2s, which really is more symbolic than substantive. The US can send 10 M1A1 Abrams as well to please the Germans. Ukraine receiving 100 Abrams & Leopard 2s each will be logistics nightmare, better off w/ 200 Leopard 2s or 200 Abrams, preferably the former due to their diesel engines.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: I so agree with you take on this. The UK paper, The Telegraph, has a Ukraine podcast, and in the recent episode, they interviewed the retired chief of intelligence for the RAF. He said, in an unreasonable summary on my part, UK and Europe should be sending almost everything as this is the war this kit was designed for. Then take the golden opportunity to retool for the 21st century in a coherent effort to co-ordinate all their production and logistics so that they can fight wars in the future with the most effect. I read that Estonia has sent a third of its available equipment, based on fighting the Russians now in UA, not later in Estonia. That’s huge. He added that Russia will be in no position to fight anyone for at least a decade after this has finished, which gives UK and Europe time to modernise. He said the production line for the Challenger MBT’s is permanently shut down making these tanks useless for any future war – ie, can’t be replaced, so just send them, and order tanks that still have production facilities like the Leopards or the Korean K2 Black Panther, that other allies are using. Worth a listen, it’s called Ukraine: The Latest.
Leslie
@Sally: That makes tons of sense. I hope the powers that be will find their way to agreeing.
YY_Sima Qian
@Sally: On the UK, given the crisis it is already in & is expected to deepen further, I frankly do not see it being in a position to meaningfully rearm in the coming years, & the high profile RN deployments to the Asia Pacific is living the old imperial dream it cannot sustain.
However, the UK should still be sending everything it can to Ukraine. Being in the NATO alliance, & being an island nation, the UK can afford to weaken its standing Army, while preserving the RN & the RAF as best as it can. The only times the British Army are used are on pointless overseas misadventures, anyway.
YY_Sima Qian
OT, Adam Tooze has written a tour de force of the UK’s current state:
Chartbook #184 – Nostalgia for decline in deconvergent Britain
His contention is that all the talks of Britain in “decline” is besides the point, since Britain’s circumstances has changed considerably for the worse since the last couple of times the topic of “decline” were prominent – as the empire collapsed in the 50s, & during the perceived malaise of the 70s.
Sally
@YY_Sima Qian: Hah. True. Being RAF that’s probably what he was getting at!
Hangö Kex
There hasn’t really been a good explanation as to why the Germans are holding back the Leopards. One possible explanation would be that there actually are very few of them in immediately usable shape and they’d rather not draw attention to this. There was a curious bit of information in the Finnish media about Rheinmetal (the manufacturer) stating that it’d take a year or so before significant numbers could be had (refurbished from what is left of cold war stocks?) (https://yle.fi/a/74-20013295).
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for this. I read Tooze’s, then Davies’, then Edgerton’s (latter two linked from Tooze’s) pieces. Wow. Tooze’s graphs are …. damning.
ColoradoGuy
@YY_Sima Qian: Wow, those charts are shocking! My direct experience of the UK was way back in 1975. What I saw were brilliant engineers, as good or better than any in the USA, hamstrung by a severe lack of capital. The British banks wouldn’t lend to a business unless someone, preferably the owner, had been to Oxbridge. Otherwise, no money for you.
Very different than freewheeling California where new businesses started every week. I had the definite impression that British banks would much rather lend to a 3rd-world dictatorship than a local business just down the street. This might have been the colonial business legacy of disinvesting in the local economy, in preference to building up the overseas Empire.
Looking at how the national government chased Frank Whittle out of his own company, the astounding mismanagement of British Leyland, the catastrophic privatization and selloff of British Rail, and the society-wide corruption that led to the completely avoidable Grenfell Fire, something is very very wrong with the English leadership class.
At every opportunity, there was the chance to do it right, and Old School Tie chumminess and outright corruption prevailed instead. This just keeps happening over and over again, as one industry after another collapses, and the best and brightest emigrate to more successful societies. Having been educated in a British (Hong Kong) secondary school, I really admire the artistic and intellectual brilliance of the people of the UK, but the aristocracy and the hyper-wealthy have been parasitizing them for far too long.
JR
@Omnes Omnibus: I heard an interview with the actor Marc Evan Jackson once, recalling what a helicopter pilot told him about a film he was shooting: “Don’t fly in a helicopter unless you absolutely have to”.
YY_Sima Qian
@ColoradoGuy: & the Tories just exemplify everything you wrote, & the modern Tories are exceedingly transparent about it.
lowtechcyclist
@Jay:
But that’s silly. If Russia’s army is tied up in Ukraine, what’s the threat by land to NATO nations? Russia’s army in Ukraine IS that threat.
Certainly to properly arm Ukraine may leave NATO with less in the way of tanks, other armored vehicles, and artillery than they’d like to have at home. But it’s not like they’ll have nothing; they’ll still have orders of magnitude more than Ukraine had when it fought off Russia’s initial assault last February and March.
And Russia will have been depleted even more than it’s already been by the war in Ukraine, and NATO arms can enable a much greater destruction of the Russian threat in Ukraine than if those arms are kept at home.
Also, the more devastating the loss to Russia in Ukraine, the less likely they are to try something like this again before a decade or two passes.
Penny-wise and pound-foolish.
sab
@ColoradoGuy: That also was my experience in UK 1975-76. Everyone I knew in university was learning a new language in hopes of emigrating, because, as Fiona Hill’s dad said ” there is nothing for you here.” And these were university students
ETA What a way to run a country. And Republicans are doung that to us now because it worked so wel for UK then.
WaterGirl
Gutted by the loss of these leaders. Even more so by the thought that this could have been Zelenskyy. This takes me back to the earliest days of the invasion, when I looked at the news with trepidation every day, fearing that the Russians would have assassinated Zelenskyy.
Omnes Omnibus
I think that this is the answer.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: I did some poking around last night to see what information was out there about tanks in the US National Guard and Reserves. It looks like the M60s are long gone. I was surprised to see that lots of other countries have M1As (of various kinds). Egypt even had a factory to make some.
There would appear, on the surface, to be no obvious reason why the M1A couldn’t be used by Ukraine if it can be used in those places. Presumably, all it takes is time and money to get the necessary pipeline (and all that entails) in place. Here’s hoping that the time is short!
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
The Tallinn Pledge: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/joint-statement-the-tallinn-pledge
Praise the lord and pass the ammunition!
Slava Ukraini!