Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Fight them, without becoming them!

This country desperately needs a functioning Fourth Estate.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

“woke” is the new caravan.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

It’s a doggy dog world.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” is supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Somebody needs to explain to DeSantis that nobody needs to do anything to make him look bad.

Let’s finish the job.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Let there be snark.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 335: A Few Odds and Ends

War for Ukraine Day 335: A Few Odds and Ends

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First off, my official Ukraine national team hockey jersey has arrived! Looks great, fits great, I’m thrilled. I cannot recommend the Ukrainian Music and Gift Shop, as well as its owner Andrey, enough! Click across and do some shopping if you’re interested.

I just want to deal with a couple of things in the comments from last night/this morning before we get into the meat of the update. First up Wvng:

As a member of Clan McPherson I say ” Meow!”

My housemate when I was doing my first masters in Scotland was a Lees, which is part of Clan McPherson. Which is why I knew the clan motto and used it last night.

Next up some guy named Carlo:

Meanwhile UA officers are getting lectured by the academic stars of the US Army War College—the modern counterpart of the Prussian/German General Staff pros—on combined-arms operations and tactics, weapons, logistics, intelligence, etc.

I am sorry to have to disabuse you of this lovely notion, but no one at US Army War College is lecturing anyone on any of those things except, maybe, logistics and intelligence at the strategic level. It is not what is done there. The US Army War College is the Senior Leader College (SLC) that focuses on the strategic application of landpower. While I’m sure there have been curricular changes since my assignment there ended, the core resident course is Theories of War and Strategy, National Security Strategy and Policy, Strategic Leadership, Theater Strategy and Campaigning, Defense Management, and a Regional Studies elective. They may or may not have put Strategic Thinking or something equivalent back into the curriculum rather than distribute the lessons throughout the rest of the core. Everyone has to take a regional study course, the elective is the students get to pick which one they’re interested in. And then the students all take several electives. And they do a strategy research project (SRP), which is sort of equivalent to a masters thesis. The curriculum is directed via the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 1800.01f/The Officers’ Professional Military Education Policy (OPMEP). The Senior Leader Colleges provide Joint Professional Military Education Level 2 (JPME2) education. You can find the requirements for what must be taught in Enclosure A pages A1 through the top of A6 of the OPMEP. Some of the commanders of the US military elements that are training Ukrainian personnel are US Army War College graduates or the graduates of the other Senior Leader Colleges. I taught Theories of War and Strategy, National Security Policy and Strategy, did lesson blocks covering my specialty in several of the Regional Studies electives, taught my own elective on culture for strategy and policy, and did lesson blocks in other electives, as well as the specialty Advanced Strategic Arts Program and National Security and Strategy Program courses.

Here is President Zelesnkyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is a day of extremely good news for Ukraine. There is a tank coalition. There is a decision to launch the supply of tanks for our defense. Modern tanks.

I started this day with a conversation with Chancellor Scholz, primarily about Leopards for Ukraine. And this is exactly the kind of conversation we expected.

I thank Mr. Chancellor, all German politicians and public figures for their willingness to strengthen the defense of Europe!

There is a very powerful step by the United States – this is how the day begins in America. Ukraine will receive Abrams, thank you for this decision.

I personally thank Mr. President Biden, I thank the Congress, I thank every American family for the tangible strength of American global leadership!

I am grateful to all our allies for their willingness to provide us with modern and much-needed tanks.

All this proves the most important fact for the world today – the fact that freedom is only getting stronger. And the way we are all working together to strengthen freedom, to defend Ukraine and Europe, is a historic achievement of the leaders who are working now.

The key thing now is speed and volume. The speed of training of our military, the speed of supplying tanks to Ukraine. The volume of tank support.

We must form a tank fist, a fist of freedom whose hits will not let tyranny stand up again.

We can do it. Together and only in the same way as we are making decisions today. Important decisions.

It is very important that there is progress in other aspects of our defense cooperation as well.

Today I spoke with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. We have to unlock the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine, it is important for us to expand our cooperation in artillery, we have to achieve the supply of aircraft to Ukraine. And this is a dream. And this is a task. An important task for all of us.

The more defense support our heroes at the front receive from the world, the sooner Russia’s aggression will end and the more reliable the security guarantees for Ukraine and all our partners will be after the war.

The terrorist state must lose. The right to life must be protected. And it will be so.

There are two more important decisions today. The first is from the ECHR. The second is from UNESCO.

The European Court of Human Rights has announced its decision on the admissibility of the case concerning Russia’s seizure of the territories of the east of Ukraine in 2014 and the occupiers’ large-scale violation of human rights.

This is still an interim legal decision. But thanks to this decision, we have become closer to the day when Russia will be held accountable for its aggression, and on the same scale from a legal point of view as Russia has invested in this evil.

UNESCO has inscribed the historic center of Odesa on the World Heritage List. Moreover, on the List of World Heritage in Danger. Danger because of the war unleashed by Russia.

This international step will help us defend our Odesa. Ukraine and the world give protection. Russia can give nothing but terror and strikes. These are facts.

Today I had a meeting with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. The conversation was primarily about our people who were forcibly deported to Russia by the occupiers. These are both adults and our children. The world needs a global mechanism of influence in such situations.

We need a mechanism to protect and return such people, to bring to justice all those responsible for deportation.

I am confident that the UN institutions can show their leadership in resolving this issue.

Today I would like to praise our units that continue to hold back the occupier’s attacks in the Donetsk region. This is where Russia is constantly trying to break our defense. Dozens of enemy attacks every day. And at least hundreds of examples of heroism of our warriors every day.

I thank the warriors of the 110th separate mechanized brigade, 79th separate air assault brigade, 35th separate marine brigade and 55th separate artillery brigade. Thank you, warriors, for your resilience and courage, which inspire the world to provide more and more assistance to Ukraine!

And one more thing. I would like to express gratitude for the very touching words of support and congratulations that I have heard and seen from so many different people. From the military. From the leaders and ordinary people. From all Ukrainians and foreigners. From colleagues now and colleagues before. Thank you all!

I think we have the same wish, in fact. A common wish. This is victory. We will do it. We are doing everything for the sake of Ukraine’s victory. And it will happen. I know it will.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is, or was in Ukraine as it is tomorrow there already, President Zelenskyy’s birthday. First Lady Zelenska had some birthday thoughts:

President Zelenskyy has to be the first person to get tanks for his birthday.

Putin, of course, did not take the day off to celebrate:

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Kremenna and Bakhmut:

Berdiansk via the Military Center:

Around 4:00 p.m. on January 24, a car was blown up in Berdiansk. It belongs to Valentyna Mamai, an ex-city council member from the Opposition Platform – For Life political party.

Ivan Fedorov, Mayor of Melitopol, reported on this.

“A warm greeting in the form of the exploded car was received by a local lover of the Russian world, Valentyna Mamai. She gladly welcomed the invaders, held a pseudo-referendum, and betrayed the patriots of Berdiansk,” he wrote.

Valentyna Mamai was in the car at the time of the explosion. Her current condition is unknown.

Here’s video of the car after the explosion.

Switzerland via Reuters republished at YahooNews:

GENEVA (Reuters) – A Swiss parliamentary body proposed on Tuesday waiving a re-export ban that prevents ammunition it manufactures from being re-exported from another country to Ukraine.

The recommendation passed with 14 in favour and 11 against and will require later approval from parliament.

“The majority of the commission deems that Switzerland should make a contribution to European security, which includes providing more aid to Ukraine,” a Swiss parliamentary committee said in a press release late on Tuesday.

Switzerland has previously rejected appeals from Germany to allow it to re-export Swiss-made ammunition to Ukraine, saying such a move would violate its neutrality. But pressure has been rising for Bern to review its policies, including at the World Economic Forum it hosted in Davos last week.

The committee added in the statement that its proposals did not violate Swiss neutrality rules since the arms would go via another country and not directly to a conflict zone.

Regardless of the justification and rationalization, this is an encouraging development.

Morocco:

Interfax-Ukraine has the details:

The Moroccan army has handed over to Ukraine about 20 T-72B tanks that have been upgraded in the Czech Republic at the repair line of the Excalibur workshops, MENA Defense, an information magazine on military issues of the Maghreb countries, reported on Sunday.

“About twenty units were sent to the battlefield a week ago and they were visible during the visit of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala to the workshops of the Excalibur Army company in Sternberk, which had carried out their refurbishment,” the publication reported.

The exact number of units of transferred equipment is unknown. According to the publication, the Moroccan army had 148 T-72s, 136 T-72Bs and 12 T-72BKs, which the country purchased in two batches in 1999 and 2000.

“Morocco’s decision to deliver arms to Ukraine was taken, almost under duress, during the Rammstein summit for Ukraine which took place on April 26, 2022 and which was hosted by the United States. At this summit, Tunisia and Morocco were the only two countries to represent North Africa. Tunis had dispatched at the time two cargo planes to Rzeszow airport in Poland, which centralizes logistical aid to Ukraine and there Morocco seems to have followed suit by sending not humanitarian aid but outright weapons,” the publication said.

Israel, once again never missing an opportunity to miss an opportunity, via Axios:

The Biden administration asked Israel for the old Hawk anti-aircraft missiles it has in storage in order to transfer them to Ukraine, three Israeli and U.S. officials told Axios.

Why it matters: Israel has so far rejected most U.S. and Ukrainian requests to provide advanced and defensive weaponry to Ukraine over concerns that such a move could create tensions with Russia and harm Israeli security interests in Syria.

  • Ukraine has repeatedly asked Western countries for such weapons to help it defend itself against Russian strikes.
    • A U.S. official said similar requests were made to several other countries that had the system in active service or in storage.
    • The senior Israeli official said an Israeli Defense Ministry official told their U.S. counterparts there is no change in Israel’s policy not to provide weapons systems to Ukraine.
    • According to the Israeli official, the Defense Ministry official said Israel’s Hawk systems are “obsolete” and can’t function because of how long they’ve been in storage without maintenance.
    • But the Israeli officials say that the response wasn’t accurate. They stressed that while the launchers might be completely dysfunctional, the hundreds of Hawk interceptors Israel has in storage can be refurbished and used.
    • The Israeli Defense Ministry reiterated to Axios in a statement that the “position of the Israel security establishment [on giving military aid to Ukraine] hasn’t changed. Every request is being reviewed on a case-by-case basis.”Between the lines: Russia holds enormous influence in Syria but allows Israel to operate freely against Iranian activity there.Behind the scenes: Senior Israeli and U.S. officials said the Pentagon reached out to the Israeli Defense Ministry two weeks ago and requested the Hawk systems that are in storage in order to transfer them to Ukraine.

More at the link!

For those of you interested in logistics and acquisition, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) did a recent exercise to examine how the US defense industrial base would be able to respond in support of Taiwan if the PRC invaded. Here’s the summary:

The U.S. defense industrial base is not adequately prepared for the international security environment that now exists. In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—the U.S. use of munitions would likely exceed the current stockpiles of the U.S. Department of Defense. According to the results of a series of CSIS war games, the United States would likely run out of some munitions—such as long-range, precision-guided munitions—in less than one week in a Taiwan Strait conflict. The war in Ukraine has also exposed serious deficiencies in the U.S. defense industrial base and serves as a stark reminder that a protracted conflict is likely to be an industrial war that requires a defense industry able to manufacture enough munitions, weapons systems, and matériel to replace depleted stockpiles.

As timelines for a possible conflict in Asia shrink, the goal should be to support the production capacity required to enable the United States and its allies and partners to deter and, if deterrence fails, fight and win at least one major theater war—if not two. “Just in time” and lean manufacturing operations must be balanced with carrying added capacity. The U.S. Department of Defense, in coordination with Congress, should develop a plan now that involves taking steps to streamline and improve production, acquisitions, replenishment, Foreign Military Sales, ITAR, and other policies and procedures. A revitalization of the defense industrial base will not happen overnight for the United States or its allies and partners. It is time to prepare for the era of competition that now exists.

Here’s the video about the simulation:

And here’s the link to the pdf report that presents the exercise and the results.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

При зйомці відео жоден Патрон не постраждав🙃 #песпатрон

♬ sonido original – Dania Alvarado

The caption machine translates as:

No Patrons (cartridges) were damaged during the video shooting 🙃 #песпатрон

That does not sound like revelry to me. It does sound like:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

98Comments

  2. 2.

    SpaceUnit

    Starting to feel like another Cold War.  Maybe tepid.  I wanted to think humanity could get past this bullshit.

  3. 3.

    Parfigliano

    1)  US Army War College teach/train Ukriane to destroy Russian military good.  Bonus if they also listen to Ukraine on how to do it cause they doing it.

    2)  Maybe its time for the US to reevaluate whats in the US and only the US interest when decieding questions regarding Israel.

  4. 4.

    Kent

    It seems to me that the crucial decision points for all of these weapons is the initial decision to send that particular class of weapon.  Once the US or Europe decides to send Abrams or Leopards or Bradleys the die is cast.  And future resupply with more is a far easier and more automatic decision.  Now that we sent 50 Bradleys to Ukraine I would imagine that sending the next 50 or 100 is a far easier and less newsworthy decision.

    For example, it was a big deal 6-9 months ago when we started to send M777 artillery and 155 mm shells to Ukraine.  Now we can probably do it without anyone much even noticing.  And probably are.  Because that precedent has been set.  Remember the hand-wringing about logistical problems because NATO shells won’t fit into Soviet guns and vice versa?  Right,

    That is why the decision to send a particular class of weapon is more important than the initial quantity frankly.

  6. 6.

    Kent

    When this is all over, Ukraine is going to have the biggest standing army in Europe outside of Russia.  And they will maintain the largest standing army in Europe for a very long time.  And decisions about what kind of weapons they will be buying and using for the next 20 years are being made right now.

    If Germany wants Ukraine to buy 500 new Leopards in the future they better act now.

  9. 9.

    OB-118

    I noticed that the last couple of posts on the Abrams, Chieftan, and Leopard tanks to be delivered to Ukraine included discussion on the number of companies or battalions that could be equiped with these tanks. The 14 Chieftans could, for example, form a complete company. But that would only be the initial organization. Once the company of Chieftans enters combat there will be losses both in tanks and crew. Should some of those 14 tanks be held back for training replacement crew members or for filling the gap when one or more tanks are destroyed? I would think there would be some level of complications (supply, maintenance, tactical ability) if Abrams or Leopard tanks were mixed in a company of Chieftans.

  10. 10.

    Bill Arnold

    Here’s another on the Israel/surplus Hawk missiles story.
    Israel said to rebuff US request for old anti-aircraft missiles to give to Ukraine – Defense official tells Biden administration Jerusalem has not changed policy against providing weapons to Kyiv, report says (Times of Israel, 25 January 2023)
    Still not clear to me what the outcome of the US ask will be. (The Israeli government should be walking on eggs, given its loathsome current ruling coalition, but arrogance may prevail, short term.)

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: The colors are much lighter than in the pictures, so the blue and yellow are the ones on the Ukrainian flag, not the darker blue and deeper yellow in the pictures. Which doesn’t surprise me at all. Very, very happy.

  15. 15.

    Martin

    Here’s the video about the simulation:

    I’ve never felt more seen. Thank you, Adam. Thank you for all of your updates.

  16. 16.

    Anoniminous

    The notion China is going to invade Taiwan anytime in the next ten years is stupid.  The Formosa Strait is 130 – 180 km wide.   Using modern anti-ship missiles by the time an invasion fleet cleared the harbor to the time it almost reached the landing beaches the ships would be fish habitat.

    Basically Millennium Challenge 2002 For Realz.

    Here’s War Nerd’s classic:  U Sank My Carrier!

  18. 18.

    Kent

    @OB-118:I noticed that the last couple of posts on the Abrams, Chieftan, and Leopard tanks to be delivered to Ukraine included discussion on the number of companies or battalions that could be equiped with these tanks. The 14 Chieftans could, for example, form a complete company. But that would only be the initial organization. Once the company of Chieftans enters combat there will be losses both in tanks and crew. Should some of those 14 tanks be held back for training replacement crew members or for filling the gap when one or more tanks are destroyed? I would think there would be some level of complications (supply, maintenance, tactical ability) if Abrams or Leopard tanks were mixed in a company of Chieftans.

    I think you also have to distinguish between offensive and defensive operations.  There is a big difference between using a formation of Chieftains in a big battle group as part of some major offensive.  Versus using a small formation of Chieftains to defend some highway or strategic location against an offensive column from the enemy.

    A lone group of 3 Chieftains may not be super useful as part of some big offensive.  But it could be a crucial line of defense at some crucial intersection.

  20. 20.

    Anoniminous

    @Poe Larity:

    China is talking about building a chunnel.

    Taiwan Strait Tunnel Project

    “The project is not considered viable due to a lack of interest from the Taiwanese, staggering costs and unsolved technical problems.”

    So not going to happen anytime soon.

    And initiating invasion down a chunnel so everybody can drown when Taiwan blows the thing up is even more daft then sending an invasion fleet.

  21. 21.

    cain

    @SpaceUnit: Very unlikely – if there is a country that has more influence than Russia, it’s Israel. They are like a jealous boyfriend, always watching us to see if we’re gonna cheat on someone.

  24. 24.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Kent: If Germany wants Ukraine to buy 500 new Leopards in the future they better act now.

    I think that ship has sailed. Poland ordered the K2 from Korea. As part of that deal, Korea will build a facility in Poland to produce the K2. Poland may become a distributor of K2s and they are good pals with Ukraine

  25. 25.

    Jay

    ℹ️ "We will use all appropriate tools to pursue the Wagner group in order to oppose its destabilizing actions, its destabilizing influence both in the Ukrainian context and in the wider context," – said the spokesman of the US State Department, Ned Price, during a briefing#NAFO pic.twitter.com/zqJI6fsCEj— Ukraine War Now ✙ (@uarealitynow) January 24, 2023

  26. 26.

    lashonharangue

    @Kent: In the long term, would it make more sense for NATO to establish Ukraine as a major production source for 155mm ammunition?  It would be a source of revenue for the country and reduce the competition with other needed investments in the U.S. defense industrial base.

  27. 27.

    CaseyL

    Israel must be doing a lot for the US that no one knows about, because they sure as hell aren’t doing anything for us that is easy to see.

    As a Jew, it disgusts me to see the corrupt, RW, religiously fundamentalist thugocracy Israel has become.

  28. 28.

    Aussie Sheila

    @cain: At this point Israel is treading a very dangerous path. Hitherto it could rely on slavish US support for every terrible policy.
    It’s prevarication regarding Ukraine’s right to exist will not be forgotten by democrats everywhere.

    I just hope that Ukraine gets whatever kit they believe they need to drive the Russians out of every corner. Their victory is important not just for them (of course the important thing), but for everybody who wants to live in a democracy. I hope I live long enough to see Russian war criminals hauled before The Hague, and Ukraine join NATO.

  29. 29.

    NutmegAgain

    @caphilldcne: Oh Ma Gawd, so it is. I’d better get out the single malt. Water of life!  my clan motto is “sweeter after difficulties” to which I’ve always said, “gee, thanks. :/  “

  31. 31.

    Michael R

    That Empty Bins video spoke about consuming the weapon stockpiles: fair enough. But I notice it didn’t say anything about the ability of the other side to absorb such weapons for. Presumably there should be some result, otherwise the weapons are not helping anyway.

    It all weapons are fired in a week, at the end of that week, are there any ships still available for counter attack? Anyone care to weigh in on that?

  32. 32.

    kalakal

    @NutmegAgain:

    to which I’ve always said, “gee, thanks. :/  “

    Could be worse, mine is “The Boar’s Rock”. I have yet to experience a situation in which it is of any way helpful

  34. 34.

    FelonyGovt

    @CaseyL: Same here. My late father loved and admired Israel and I believe it would pain him to see what they’ve become now.

    ETA that message from Mrs. Zelenskyy made me cry.

  35. 35.

    piratedan

    well…. jeez, why don’t we clear out the State of Alabama, I’m sure that they have all of the small and medium arms that Ukrainian forces might need, plenty of ammo too.

  36. 36.

    Subsole

    @Parfigliano:

    Yeah, I must be missing something here, because Israel seems to really, really suck as a friend.

    I don’t dispute the necessity of the place, but Good Lord, do they treat all their friends like shit? Or just us?

     

    @SpaceUnit: That ain’t happening. Too many rightwing hyperchristians afraid Jeebos the Vengeful will lock them out of Heaven (TM, I am sure) for supplying insufficient suction to Netanyahu’s puckered somethin’orother…

  37. 37.

    kalakal

    @Kent:

    A lone group of 3 Chieftains may not be super useful as part of some big offensive.  But it could be a crucial line of defense at some crucial intersection.

    Very good point and very much in keeping with their design. BAOR (British Army Of the Rhine) was pretty much designed to be a super tough roadblock. It was meant to blunt and delay a Soviet invasion while NATO got its act together via programs like REFORGER, not invade the Warsaw Pact. Chieftans ( Challenger 2s these days) are very tough, very heavy ( Challengers weigh 83 tons) tanks. The idea was to yield ground to the Soviets slowly, and for the Soviets, very painfully.

    They’re obviously more than capable of being used offensively but they’re forte is stopgap defense.

  38. 38.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Carlo Graziani: No worries. Almost the entire US population, including most people in the military, just don’t know what the war colleges do. Also, it’s USAWC. AWC is Air Wa Colleges.

  40. 40.

    dmsilev

    @Anoniminous: When the Chunnel was built, there was speculation that the British had taken …precautions in case it became an invasion route by restored Bonapartists or something. Mostly a joke at the time, but now that we’re post-Brexit, I wonder.

  41. 41.

    Carlo Graziani

    @NutmegAgain: Isn’t “water of life” “usquebaugh” to your lot (whence “whisky”)?

    It’s “aquavit” in Eastern Europe, “aquavite” occasionally in Italy, although it manifests as grappa there.

    What a bunch of drunks wet life-lovers we are…

  42. 42.

    Kent

    @lashonharangue:@Kent: In the long term, would it make more sense for NATO to establish Ukraine as a major production source for 155mm ammunition?  It would be a source of revenue for the country and reduce the competition with other needed investments in the U.S. defense industrial base.

    Long term it makes sense for Ukraine to produce those things it is best at producing and import those things it is not efficient at producing.   Whether that is shells I have no idea.

  44. 44.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Jay: As I posited in an update post when the attacks happened. Didn’t name a group, just stated this was a Russian op.

  46. 46.

    David Anderson

    What countries besides Morocco have a mostly NATO equipped military with a substantial Warsaw Pact component?  Those are the next sources of ammunition and major capital goods including tanks and anti tank weapons … Egypt, and anyone else?

  49. 49.

    Carlo Graziani

    The CSIS wargame is probably the best explanation of the true reason that Ukraine is unlikely to receive a single ATACMS munition, unfortunately. Those are the poster children for “very limited supply”—600 or so in the Army inventory, so far as I could ascertain from the on-line sources mining extremely closely-held data, and no plans or pipeline to make more. There are some budget documents detailing the development and procurement of a next-gen system, but they were pre-February 2022, and the timelines and quantities obviously reflected very leisurely and dispiriting peacetime planning.

    Thank Reason the GLSDB munition appears to be a real thing. Best guess is the US will also be buying a stock of those to tide the Army over the potential munition famine.

  50. 50.

    Jay

    @David Anderson:

    a quick google search a couple of weeks ago found that there were over 124 manufacturers of 125mm smoothbore ammunition of various “levels” in 64 countries.

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: Favorite reply:

    And Fellas, Archivist also wanted to remind you that taking a photocopy of your tushy and stamping it as classified may be fun but the archivist would like to receive fewer of these documents. They had to get a bigger cabinet already.

  52. 52.

    CaseyL

    @Kent: I have a lot of thoughts and hopes for what Ukraine will be after it wins the war, reduces Russia to a hollow shell eating itself, and finishes reshaping global alliances.

  53. 53.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous:

    The notion China is going to invade Taiwan anytime in the next ten years is stupid.  The Formosa Strait is 130 – 180 km wide.   Using modern anti-ship missiles by the time an invasion fleet cleared the harbor to the time it almost reached the landing beaches the ships would be fish habitat.

    I felt the same way, but apparently there are some war games exploring novel tactics available to the PLA, using saturation numbers of plain commercial-style hulls, that have sobering outcomes, including secure lodgments for assault forces on the Island.

    It’s still hard to see how resupply required for sustainment and ultimate conquest of the island would work. But the fact that OVERLORD itself looks comparatively easy nowadays given current tactics and tech is really eye-opening.

  54. 54.

    Bill Arnold

    @Carlo Graziani:

    The CSIS wargame is probably the best explanation of the true reason that Ukraine is unlikely to receive a single ATACMS munition, unfortunately.

    Though a small but ambiguous number (e.g. 10-30) would force the Russians to worry more about very high value targets in range. A few showcased demonstration fires at targets of high military significance, and the rest in reserve, or very slowly used. There would be pressure for more, though.

  55. 55.

    OB-118

    @kalakal: “… Chieftans ( Challenger 2s these days) …” I sit corrected :-). Thank the Cat I didn’t call them Centurions or Cromwells, that would have really showed me age.

  59. 59.

    Draco7

    @Poe Larity: I’m assuming you’re referencing the airport code – if so, then this looks like a good link for those who can assist. As an aside, I checked out a number of organizations (e.g., IRC) a few weeks ago to see if I could provide refugee housing and learned that my standard of living was too low. To quote Johnny Carson: “I did not know that!”. Slightly disappointed, slightly amused – I’ll have to clean up my act, apparently.

  63. 63.

    Kent

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I felt the same way, but apparently there are some war games exploring novel tactics available to the PLA, using saturation numbers of plain commercial-style hulls, that have sobering outcomes, including secure lodgments for assault forces on the Island.

    It’s still hard to see how resupply required for sustainment and ultimate conquest of the island would work. But the fact that OVERLORD itself looks comparatively easy nowadays given current tactics and tech is really eye-opening.

    That is the key.  You might be able to insert some light forces.  But modern warfare is extremely heavy and without resupply you are nothing but sitting ducks.  Look what happened to all the Russian special forces that managed to land at the airport in Kyiv.  Didn’t matter how good they were, they were massacred because they were on an island with no heavy weapons or support.

    The only amphibious assaults that had a prayer of success during WW2 were the ones in which the allies had uncontested air and sea superiority.  And even then it was a hellacious deadly slog.  The Russians couldn’t even fjord a small river in Ukraine without getting slaughtered.

  64. 64.

    Feathers

    The IOC has announced that Russian athletes will be allowed to compete in the 2024 Paris Olympics. This is bullshit. Had written a post which got eaten (totally my fault). Need to get to sleep. Will type it up tomorrow to post tomorrow night. Just total corruption.

  66. 66.

    CaseyL

    @Kent: I’m not sure the Russian example fits precisely, since the initial attack was badly planned and equipped.  If the structure of Chinese command and control is as sclerotic and corrupt as Russia’s (a possibility; I don’t know much about China’s armed forces, other than they’re great at fighting unarmed civilians), then there are useful parallels

    Come to think: when is the last time China’s armed forces fought an actual battle?

  67. 67.

    Martin

    @Kent: Are we overlooking that the US is currently keeping three (3!) carrier groups in the waters around Taiwan, plus an expeditionary force and an amphibious force. I’m not sure what the US commitment to defend Taiwan might be or not be, but I can’t imagine anything China fields would last 48 hours if the US decided to actively defend.

  68. 68.

    Martin

    @CaseyL: Guessing Vietnam in the late 70s. Basically long enough ago that any institutional knowledge is long lost. So operating on theory alone.

  69. 69.

    Kent

    @CaseyL:Come to think: when is the last time China’s armed forces fought an actual battle?

    They invaded Vietnam in 1979 and more or less had their asses handed to them by the Vietnamese.  Or at least underperformed.

  70. 70.

    Kent

    @CaseyL:

    @Kent: I’m not sure the Russian example fits precisely, since the initial attack was badly planned and equipped.  If the structure of Chinese command and control is as sclerotic and corrupt as Russia’s (a possibility; I don’t know much about China’s armed forces, other than they’re great at fighting unarmed civilians), then there are useful parallels

    Wasn’t saying the situations are equal.  Just that an amphibious invasion without massive and constant resupply is going nowhere against a prepared enemy.  You blow through a phenomenal amount of supplies in combat.

    You know that Taiwan has all kinds of fixed defenses and massive amounts of equipment and supplies stockpiled all over at every strategic point on that island.  They will be good to go for months while any force invading by sea will be lucky to have a day or so of supplies before they run out.  If that.

  74. 74.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Kent: I’m pretty sure that analogizing the PLA to the Russian military is a major error.

    For clarity’s sake: I’m unconvinced that a realistic military conquest option exists now. I’m even less convinced that the CPC seniors have a schedule set for exercising such an option.

    However, I am a bit shocked that the lessons from the truly risky OVERLORD/NEPTUNE 100-mile assault crossing no longer control military thinking.

    And I do worry about the CPC’s leadership ability to totally misread the risk of an invasion of Taiwan. YY_Sima Qian and I have a standing disagreement on this point. My view is that the CPC seniors espouse an outlook that blinds them to the fact that no US office-holding politician (or Western politician, for that matter) could ever safely back off from a military confontation with China over a Taiwan invasion, even if the PLA somehow arranged circumstances guaranteeing massive Chinese operational advantage. The argument about defending a democracy from being overrun by a despotism, which resonates at the marrow level for Americans, sounds like stupid pointless rhetorical excess to Xi’s coterie. To the extent that the risk of a war is real, this is the core political dynamic that drives it, in my opinion.

  75. 75.

    piratedan

    concerning the comparisons between what Putin is doing in Europe and the possible parallels between China and Taiwan…

    Putin has knocked off young countries that were mostly in his sphere of influence and any modern military tradition and trade was skewed in favor of Russia, which means that he’s had the benefit of 5th columns, easier transport and against countries that have not developed much of a relationship with the West.

    China has been free to do the same on its land borders with little pushback because of many of the same reasons in the West simply because there hasn’t been a lot of relationship building in Bhutan, Nepal and Tibet and the West…. and they do skirmish with India who I’m sure that the Chinese keep close tabs on.  The idea that they would look to throw down with Taiwan does seem incredibly shortsighted… yet.

    The whole problem is there is no one to disabuse Putin from doing what he’s doing, does the same hold true for Xi?  Does Xi look to bring Taiwan in to “restore” China to its former greatness?  While I think that would lust after what Taiwan has built itself into, the thought that the US, Japan and Australia would simply roll over seems to be evident that it wouldn’t happen.

    The wrench to all of this is that dictators can get high on their own supply and not every decision will be a rational one, but we’ve not seen that Xi has shown the same willingness to go all in as Vlad did and it’s now looking like Vlad has underestimated the hand that Ukraine is holding.  I assume Xi is taking notes.

  76. 76.

    Another Scott

    @Kent: Yup.

    China and India have also had border skirmishes which have turned deadly at times. It seems to be China’s tactic to keep pushing over the decades to impose its will on what it thinks the border should be. It’s harder to use that technique on a waterway, but not impossible (and I’m sure the US Navy is aware).

    “These have always been our territorial waters, so us having battlewagons 3 miles off the Taiwan coast is no threat to anyone…”

    :-/

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  77. 77.

    Kent

    @piratedan: I think the big difference between Putin and China is that the Chinese are playing a very long game.  They have no existential internal threat that requires any sort of splashy thing like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  They are solidly in power and can afford to wait decades and decades if they want.

    Meanwhile they relentlessly undermine Taiwanese independence through every soft method.

    I can’t think of any reason for them not to stay the course.  The existence of Taiwan allows them to keep a world class military and state security apparatus.  And it gives them an external enemy to keep Chinese riled up about and not looking too inward.  In a sense they actually need Taiwan as a foil.

  79. 79.

    Ksmiami

    @Parfigliano: Yes…  Israel has been yanking our chain for far far too long. Plus, they are a Democracy in name only that is reinforcing an apartheid state.

  80. 80.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Kent: 

    They invaded Vietnam in 1979 and more or less had their asses handed to them by the Vietnamese. Or at least underperformed.

    I saw a YouTube video about this a few weeks ago. Vietnam was getting uppity towards China, so China wanted to teach them a lesson. They planned for about a two week incursion with no air support, as they wanted this to be done and finished without the Soviet Union becoming interested.

    The PLA was able to advance and take a few strategic towns, some with human wave assaults, before they withdrew.

    Vietnam did not peruse the withdrawing PLA.

    China was not able to brush aside the regional militias as they had expected, and I think the fighting was winding down about the time Vietnam’s regular army was ready to get involved.

    —

    No doubt someone with deeper knowledge of the region’s history will correct me.

  82. 82.

    Aussie Sheila

    @Feathers: Re IOC. It is a totally corrupt institution with a long and dishonourable history of cooperation with fascists.

    There needs to be a big, noisy campaign against its decision here, and the campaign should focus on ‘cleaning up’ its corruption as well as its malfeasance.

  83. 83.

    Aussie Sheila

    @piratedan: No one should be under any illusion about Xi’s drive for personal power at home.

    However I believe that he will think hard about giving his domestic enemies a stick to beat him with. The Chinese government may be arrogant at times, but the regime is not suicidal. The Chinese political elite is quite ‘plugged in’ to various governments in the region. Even ‘sympathetic’ governments know that any attempt to do a Putin over Taiwan would spell the end of peace in the region and would unleash economic ruin for any nation cooperating with such adventurism.

    I am confident that the Chinese political and economic leadership would prefer not to plunge the country into a conflict it knows it can’t win. Xi may think it a smart gambit if he gets in trouble at home, but I believe if he tries he will find himself an ex Party leader, fast.

  84. 84.

    Carlo Graziani

    Time to place some new bets.

    My previous bet on a UA December offensive in Svatove-Kreminna was a bust, although I plead unseasonable mud weather. I still think that had the mud frozen on schedule, the UA could have struck hard coming out of the Kherson conquest before the Russians had time to get set to welcome them.

    Not to be, though. Now the analysis consensus appears to be that the Russians are setting up for a Spring offensive in Luhansk Oblast, in an effort to reverse the setbacks that they suffered in the fall Kharkiv offensive. Indications are that the Russian regular army (i.e not-Wagner) is building up the necessary assets near Svatove-Kreminna, acoording to today’s ISW campaign assessment.

    It seems unlikely to me that the UA would allow such a campaign to unfold by waiting passively for the Russians to make their move. Far more likely the UA General Staff is pondering a spoiling offensive to seize the initiative. Where and when is the question.

    I have a candidate, based on my admitted fascination with Russian rail-bound logistics, and my conviction that much of the course of the war has been determined by the struggle over rail nets and nodes. The place where I think the UA may be considering an assault is a border town called Troitske, which is the rail stop on the Ukrainian side of the border across from Urazovo, where the rail line to Starobilsk leaves Russia. It is well north of current operations in Luhansk Oblast, so not in the direct vector of active Russian defenses at the moment.

    There aren’t any usable roads that go to Troitske from UA-controlled territory. But the temperatures have been at mud-freezing levels for a couple of weeks now, so off-road thrusts are possible, for now. They will cease to be possible by sometime in March, April at the latest. So if the UA wants to punch the Russians in the nose before they can get their Big Set Piece Battle all lined up, the clock is ticking now.

    As a reminder, that rail line is the final connection between the Belgorod supply depot and the entire theatre that it is supposed to service. So this sleepy little town actually sits on the Russian carotid artery…

  87. 87.

    Ruckus

    @Martin:

    China is far better than Russia. China still runs top down but they do understand that the people at the bottom, AND in the middle serve a very valid need. We’ve covered this here before so I’ll give it a light touch. Everything in Russia runs from the top. The economy, the military – every damn thing, runs from the top down. And the top is so far separated from the bottom and they depend only on each other at the top that things happen only sporadically and badly. Every damn thing. Military equipment, equipment inventory, resupply, food, every damn thing is lied about because no one asks or trusts the people doing the work. And there is nothing but survival at the bottom, the middle exists to steal from the bottom and some from the top. People fight and don’t back others up all the time because that’s survival of the individual. There is very little of having each others backs, it’s not part of the culture. And if you don’t support the top, even when the top is killing you, the top will have you killed by someone else in the bottom, who will do this so they can survive. It’s not even communism, it’s basic theft of a nation and anything resembling humanity.

  88. 88.

    Geminid

    I’ve been reading a Reuters report of a new cruise missiles attacking Ukraine today, with most shot down by Ukrainian defenses. It had been a while since the last one, which may indicate Russian stocks are getting low and they can only challenge Ukrainian air defenses periodically.

    This would change if Iran started delivering the ballistic missiles they were reported last October to have agreed to provide. They have not provided them, and I am curious as to why.  Adam suggested they are afraid we or another country would disrupt the shipments. Or it’s possible we’ve let them know we would destroy the factories also.

    That would be a big step, and four months ago I would not have believed it a likely option. The danger large shipments of ballistic missiles would pose to Ukrainians is great though, so maybe we’ve let Iran know this is a red line they cross at their peril.

  89. 89.

    Geminid

    @Aussie Sheila: Regarding the CSIS report on insufficient US weapons stocks, I don’t think its a response to an immediate threat of a Chinese war on Taiwan. For reasons you and others point out, that would be a gamble China is unlikely to take any time soon or even this decade.

    There is a war heating up in Congress right now though, with a radical Republican faction threatening an assault on the US budget including its military military component. Their own strategic vulnerability is the exaggerated China threat that has become the central foreign policy tenet of their party.

    In this context, the “Empty Bins” video and CSIS report could be seen as “spoiling attacks” on the ambitious budget cutters.

  90. 90.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: A recent report in Aljazeera says that the missile attacks killed one Kyiv resident and injured two others.

    Anothe Aljazeera reportfrom ~20 minutes ago said that French Foreign Minister Catherine Collona has arrived in Odesa for a meeting with her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba. The report said her arrival was delayed because of missile attacks on that city.

  91. 91.

    Barry

    @Kent: “When the Chunnel was built, there was speculation that the British had taken …precautions in case it became an invasion route by restored Bonapartists or something. Mostly a joke at the time, but now that we’re post-Brexit, I wonder.”

     

    The idea that the Chunnel would be a good invasion route was always ridiculous.

  92. 92.

    Geminid

    @Martin: We are not keeping three Carrier battle groups in the waters around Taiwan. The Nimitz and its strike group were exercising in the South China Sea a couple of days ago. Right now it’s at Singapore. The Reagan is currently at Yokosuka, Japan.

    A good source for locations of carrier strike groups and amphiious strike groups is the fleet tracker feature at news.usni.org.

  94. 94.

    Geminid

    @Baud: It’s an interesting site. For instance, I saw that the George H.W. Bush is at Marseilles, France right now. A good place for shore leave, I expect.

    Now I want to head down to Norfolk and take the tour at the navy base. I’ve glanced at it from a distance when I’ve taken the Hampton Roads bridge-tunnel. I usually saw two or three carriers at their docks. I’ve heard the tours are good.

  95. 95.

    Another Scott

    @Baud: I assume they turn off the trackers when things get hairy.  Like one can occasionally see GlobalHawks flying around near Ukraine on FlightRadar24, but they turn the transponders off most of the time.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  96. 96.

    NutmegAgain

    @Carlo Graziani: Yes, indeed, whisky = water of life. Between the cuisine (haggis! deep fried anything!) and the climate, it’s necessary. I can see the case for aquavit/vodka, but you guys (Italians) have both the balmy climate and the amazing food. Why do you need grappa?? /jk

  97. 97.

    NutmegAgain

    @kalakal: I don’t even understand that! I swear whoever made that stuff up was utterly stoned out of their gourds on, uh, water of life.

  98. 98.

    Ruckus

    @Baud:

    I have sailed side by side with a full sized American aircraft carrier, in a ship with a mast about the hight off the water about the height of the flight deck of said carrier. The forward deck area of the destroyer class ship I was stationed on is lower than the lowest opening on the side of that aircraft carrier by about 15 ft and which was their refueling area, which is what we were doing about 75-100 feet away from the carrier, hooked up by steel cables, going forward tied together refueling. My station during refueling was the forward station. Aircraft carriers are huge ships, nearly 1/5th of a mile long.

    You don’t hide one. Ever. And the point is you don’t want to hide one. You want everyone to know that a fleet of planes larger than the air force of some countries can travel within easy range of them.

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