(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
This is another sanctions step by our state against the nuclear industry of the terrorist state. By my decree, I put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on 200 people working for the Russian nuclear industry.
We are doing everything to make sanctions against the Russian nuclear industry part of global sanctions against Russia for the war.
It is not easy. There is some resistance. But there was a time when other restrictions against Russia seemed difficult to implement as well. They did. Now they are already in place. For example, on oil and oil products from Russia.
All elements of the Russian system that are involved in the war, in providing terror and financing aggression must be isolated from the global system. This will be done!
This is all the more true for those who participated in the seizure and illegal actions at our Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia’s radiation blackmail of the world must be punished.
This is also something we will be discussing at various diplomatic levels next week.
This will be an equally important week for our international positions.
We are already preparing for the planned communications and negotiations. We will not interrupt the diplomatic marathon we have launched to strengthen armed and other support for Ukraine for a single week.
Today I would like to personally praise everyone who is restoring the energy capabilities of our country. Today and yesterday, the majority of Ukrainians spent without many shutdowns.
Of course, unfortunately, there were still restrictions in some districts and cities. Where the degree of destruction is too significant. Of course, with the start of the new week, consumption will increase, and therefore there will be outage schedules. But the very fact that we can have such calm days in terms of energy after the constant terrorist attacks with missiles and Shaheds, after the massive missile attack this week proves the professionalism of our power engineers and the extraordinary dedication of everyone who works on the provision of our energy system.
I am grateful to all Ukrainian power engineers, all repair crews, employees of the State Emergency Service, utility workers, regional and local authorities who helped. And to the businesses that have been involved in the relevant work.
We must realize that this is not yet a decisive victory on the energy front. Unfortunately, there may be new terrorist attacks from Russia. There may be new restrictions if there is new destruction and consumption growth. But today and yesterday are yet another proof that by working together and helping each other, Ukrainians are doing great things.
So let’s stay united! Do not waste a single day or a single week! All for the sake of Ukraine!
Thank you to everyone who works for our country! Glory to each and every one who is in combat!
Glory to all those who are defending Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar, Maryinka, Avdiivka and all other directions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as along the entire frontline!
Resilience, unity and mutual support are our strength!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Vuhledar:
BAKHMUT AXIS /1630 UTC 12 FEB/ UKR continues to hold the urban area of Krasna Hora. RU forces have maintained a salient N of the village, threatening the M-03 / T-05-13 junction. UKR forces are in contact North of H-32 HWY near Chasiv Yar. pic.twitter.com/TLSenld0Sx
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 12, 2023
VUHLEDAR /1445 UTC 12 FEB/ After the RU defeat at on 10 FEB, local Ukrainian forces counter attacked and dislodged Russian units who had advanced west of Vuhledar. On 12 FEB, UKR forces are reported to be in contact south of the urban area. pic.twitter.com/9UlT1d5pGD
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) February 12, 2023
Bakhmut:
Magyar from Bakhmut: from tomorrow, the city administration closes access to civilians and press to protect their safety. The enemy continues with regular attempts to encircle the city, but the city remains under Ukrainian control. pic.twitter.com/TjT1CZKiZD
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 12, 2023
Update on the Donetsk Oblast offensive, 12 February: very heavy fights, the Russian large-scale offensive is already taking place, with the area north of Bakhmut being the most challenging. But we are holding the line, inflicting major losses on the enemy – Kiyanyn. pic.twitter.com/vkdP5ObM90
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 12, 2023
Vuhledar:
12.02 🇺🇦Vuhledar – 17:30 update
The enemy made another fruitless attempt to advance with several tanks through the minefield. Throughout the day even more vehicles and assaulting infantry groups have been eliminated, few POW's were captured.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
🧵Vuhledar🇺🇦 update:
1/9 This thread includes additional details about the battle of Vuhledar and satellite imagery that helps to understand and visualize the situation better. I had to break this into several parts, so I can publish more imagery of russian losses later. Part 1 pic.twitter.com/uzxXd0i6YC
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
3/9 Battalions from the 36th and 72nd (russian motor rifle) brigades tried to advance alongside the 155th and 40th brigades but also failed. Special forces partially lost control when the commander of the 14th Spetsnaz Brigade, colonel Sergey Polyakov was killed. pic.twitter.com/iDGXcAYNov
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
5/9 Not that many people are fit to be in the forward vanguard assault groups that face an enemy first. It takes a lot of experience, courage, or stimulants to attack and act effectively when you know that your chances to be killed or wounded in the assault are almost 90%. pic.twitter.com/SoUcU6neRA
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
7/9 After staggering casualties of the VDV forces in the battle for Kyiv, it took them a year to restore assault capabilities partially, which we can see in the Kreminna area. It will take as long for marines to restore assault capacities, especially after a catastrophic failure pic.twitter.com/StmBWiAK2C
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
9/9 I am planning to publish imagery of infamous armored vehicle columns in the coming weeks, so if you don't want to miss it, make sure to follow and retweet, as Twitter algorithms might not be in favor of war-related information.
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) February 12, 2023
A man that looks like Putin strangely declares that the Pacific and North Fleets marines are "fighting heroically, right now". The same marines that drive over each other on BMPs and run around aflame near Vuhledar. Is this person aware at all of what's going on in the war? pic.twitter.com/Ewp8B2JJVJ
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) February 12, 2023
Kyiv:
I have no idea how they do this, but tomorrow it will be the second day in a row with no planned power cuts in Kyiv and the region.
At least that’s what our energy monopoly says. And it’s frosty now, and there was a massive missile attack just recently.— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 12, 2023
The funniest thing is that the cold season is drawing to an end already. Neither Ukraine nor Europe is not even close to begging Putin for peace on their knees in the dark and cold, but the Kremlin motormouths can’t stop masturbating their hourly-paid rage.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 12, 2023
Kharkiv:
Russian S-300 missile hit Kharkiv central park on Tuesday.
📷 Serhii Kozlov
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 12, 2023
Even after almost a year, this Kharkiv feels surreal to me. pic.twitter.com/8Xh2vhIq3x
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 12, 2023
Grozny:
"We will take Odesa, Kharkiv and Kyiv and reach Poland,"
I have to admit Kadyrov has a really good sense of humor.— Ivana Stradner 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ivanastradner) February 12, 2023
The Guardian brings us the details of how Iran is getting their munitions to Russia for use in Ukraine:
Iran has used boats and a state-owned airline to smuggle new types of advanced long-range armed drones to Russia for use in its war on Ukraine, sources inside the Middle Eastern country have revealed.
At least 18 of the drones were delivered to Vladimir Putin’s navy after Russian officers and technicians made a special visit to Tehran in November, where they were shown a full range of Iran’s technologies.
On that occasion, the 10-man Russian delegation selected six Mohajer-6 drones, which have a range of around 200km and carry two missiles under each wing, along with 12 Shahed 191 and 129 drones, which also have an air-to-ground strike capability.
Unlike the better-known Shahed 131 and 136 drones, which have been heavily used by Russia in kamikaze raids against Ukrainian targets, the higher-flying drones are designed to deliver bombs and return to base intact.
The disclosures demonstrate the increasing closeness between Iran and Russia, which share a hostility towards the US, since Moscow launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine a year ago.
Last August, US officials said that Iran had begun showcasing the Shahed 191 and 129 drones in June to Russia, and said they expected Tehran to sell them to Moscow. Mohajer-6 drones have been downed in Ukraine since September, with officials displaying one in November to the Guardian in Kyiv.
Increasingly short of missiles to sustain its brutal bombing campaign of Ukraine’s towns and cities, Russia has turned to Iran and also North Korea to replenish its stocks. Many in Ukraine fear Russia plans to launch a major attack around the time of the one-year anniversary of the war in less than two weeks.
Meanwhile, the US, the UK and other western governments have been monitoring the arms cooperation keenly, partly in an effort to prevent it from escalating. Moscow has also sought to buy ballistic missiles, although there is not any public evidence that Tehran has agreed to send them.
Russia may have been keen to obtain the more advanced drones, loosely comparable with the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, because Ukraine has become increasingly effective in stopping the smaller suicide drones, which have to fly in low before striking.
In October, Kyiv was hit by a Shahed 136 drone attack, which killed five when one got through and exploded on a house near the city’s railway station. But in January, Ukraine’s air force said it knocked out 45 of 45 drones after a mass attack timed to coincide with the new year.
More at the link!
What’s American air defense doing?
Senior administration official says the object shot down over Lake Huron today was over Montana last night. NORAD "re-acquired" radar contact today and tracked it over Wisconsin and Michigan.
Was shot down at an altitude of about 20K, lower than previous similar actions.
— Dan Lamothe (@DanLamothe) February 12, 2023
Cylinders are so passé: “The [Lake Huron] object was octagonal in structure, unmanned and traveling at about 20,000 feet, the official said. There is no indication of surveillance capabilities but the admin cannot rule that out.” https://t.co/E3ecZpThwZ
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) February 12, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I met @RishiSunak a few months ago. And we had a pleasant conversation. Damn, I should have asked for F-16, not a royal corgi pillow! 🫢 How to go back in time? Does anyone know? pic.twitter.com/7TLSURIHM5
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 12, 2023
@Number10cat , could you please do something? Rishi will not be able to say « no » to you☺️
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 12, 2023
Typhoon! Not F-16! Made a slip
— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 12, 2023
Open thread!
Martin
Texas should hire those Ukrainian electrical workers when the war is over.
Elizabelle
May Patron get his jet fighter(s).
And yeah, re the electrical workers. Although they’ll be plenty in demand at home, too.
Alison Rose
Ponomarenko’s second tweet is *chef’s kiss*.
I am once again just in awe of what the Ukrainian army has done and continues to do. Reading these updates from Bakhmut and Vuhledar, it makes me think (and forgive me for mentioning the fucker) that old Rumsfeld quote about going to war with the army you have, not the army you want…like, Ukraine might be the one place where those two options are one and the same.
One year ago today, mass rally in Ukraine against the looming invasion.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Anonymous At Work
Four objects in a week. Really polarizing between “Crap! We made a mistake in some calculations!” and “Let’s keep the US Secretary of State from visiting!” Probably too early to know but since Objects #2, 3, and 4 seem small, it feels like China is either trolling us or feeding the Fox “News” trolls.
Anonymous At Work
@Alison Rose: UA would want a few hundred thousand more troops at least. It feels like RU has no bottom and even Vuhledar’s burn-rate isn’t going to slow them down. Russia is gaining ground with Pyrrhic victories and might have enough mobiks to win the war. RU will lose the peace because they are burning their workforce at both ends, via conscription or flight to neighboring countries.
Alison Rose
@Anonymous At Work: Well, sure. Obviously they’re outnumbered in the technical sense. That’s not what I was talking about. I was referring to their grit and bravery and strength and ingenuity and all of that. That in every way imaginable, their troops, just like Zelenskyy, turned out to be the exact right people for the job.
Bill Arnold
@Anonymous At Work:
According to this reporting, basically (doing some reading/guessing between the lines), an airspace defense sensory system is an intrusion detection system that consumes an enormous amount of data, looks for anomalies, and filters out events that are considered safely ignorable. After the first balloon shootdown, the filters were relaxed to cover (at least; might be more relaxations) weather balloons drifting along at wind speed at certain ranges of altitudes. The details of these filters are not generally talked about for national security reasons; some of the balloon activity is very possibly probing of these systems.
New unidentified ‘cylindrical’ object shot down over Canada – NORAD and military aircraft spotted and tracked the latest object, as search continues off Alaska for aircraft downed Friday (Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton, February 11, 2023)
Bill Arnold
This is just depressing. A (the?) Russian Foreign Ministry spokewoman sounds very much like an arrogant ignorant American authoritarian rightwinger willingly locked in a false-reality epistemic bubble. Apparently never taught actual facts about Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, or Lend-lease, or etc. Considers transphobia-spreading more important that most other things. Is worried that Russia will have to deal with “non-humans”. (That last was weird. Some additional cultural/narrative translation might be needed.)
Russia’s Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman denigrates Western alliance in WWII (Russian Media Monitor, Youtube, 9:23 – Maria Zahharova)
(via)
zhena gogolia
So I guess they think this isn’t really Putin?
that is definitely Putin
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: He (and others) uses that wording often, when putin is saying things that are demonstrably untrue or ridiculous or stupid. I don’t think he actually thinks it’s not putin.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: I thought it was referring to theories that he has a double
Bill Arnold
@zhena gogolia:
Been seeing that construct (looks very much like person X, but is saying stupid clueless things) around the last several weeks at least.
Will be increasingly edgy as generated/”deep fake” videos continue to improve.
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: Oh. I mean, maybe, but in this case, I don’t think it’s that. I think he’s being cheeky.
zhena gogolia
@Bill Arnold: Okay, but Putin always lies and says stupid things, so nothing unexpected there.
Jay
Jay
Jay
UncleEbeneezer
Adam, have you written anything yet about Seymour Hersh’s (I assume bullshit) claims that the US was responsible? I’ve been seeing it picking up steam on social media and I suspect Russian disinfo campaign. I notice that no reputable foreign policy/IR people are buying it.
YY_Sima Qian
@Anonymous At Work:
@Bill Arnold:
The relaxing of filters will almost certainly generate a lot of false alarms. Given the current political climate, it is safer to shoot unknown/unidentified flying objects (when it is safe to do so), rather than let it go on & find out it is a surveillance platform later.
The object shot down over Alaska likely came from Russia (based on wind pattern), if it was not a NWS balloon. The one shot down over Yukon likely came from China. The octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron seems to be more likely a drone than a balloon.
YY_Sima Qian
@UncleEbeneezer: The entire reporting was based on 1 anonymous source. I don’t think it can be taken seriously at this point. (& this is disregarding Hersh’s credibility issues over the years.)
Andrya
@UncleEbeneezer: Adam handled this on his Feb. 10 update (comment #43). Bottom line: not reliable.
Anoniminous
“The enemy made another fruitless attempt to advance with several tanks through the minefield.”
Because that always works out so WELL !!!!
Jesus Christ on a Diesel Powered Pogo Stick …. we are plumb bobbing the depths of military incompetence.
Anoniminous
@Alison Rose:
If the 2022 Ukrainian Army was the 2014 Ukrainian Army the Russians would be in Kyiv tonight. Credit General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and others who faced a horrendous job in changing the Ukrainian Army from a joke into a force capable and willing to defend their country in eight years. That is a unique achievement in modern military history.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
the 2014 Ukrainian Army was not a “joke” force. They were a Soviet Pattern Conscript army, riddled with pro-Russians, corruption and compromised communications and command. They also had a lot of soldiers and lower level commanders, along with volenteers, willing to fight. They, Ukraine, also had minimal outside support, politically, economic and military.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyborgs_(Donetsk_airport)
Anoniminous
@Jay:
Sounds like a pretty good definition of “A Joke” to me.
Manyakitty
@Martin: oof. Those heroes deserve better than Texas!
Manyakitty
@Jay: that’s what I’m talking about! Excellent news.
Jay
@Anoniminous:
denigrates those who fought.
Ukraine, despite everything only broke into the top 20 in Global Firepower Review in 2011. Canada has always been in the top 20, and Russia has almost always been #2.
EZSmirkzz
At the risk of irritating some of you, back in 2003 when we were trying to stop the war on Iraq we became familiar with the concept of logical fallacies which seem to blossom like flowers in the spring, ht during war time. War as you know is politics by other means. But don’t discount its’ efficacy in day to day political discourse.
While learning this stuff, it may be used as a sword, it is most useful as a shield.
I’m not posting this as accusation of anyone,( that would in fact be a fallacy in its’ own right,) but as a useful tool in any debate or discussion that you may find yourself engaged in. .
Anoniminous
@Jay:
Something gearheads and airheads never understand is
equipment only gets you so far
.
When it came to ground force equipment France and the UK were heads and shoulders above Germany in 1940. The majority of Germany armor was the Panzer I and Panzer II. The first had a machine gun and the armor protection of aluminum foil. The second had a 20mm gun and a machine gun. The most common French tank was the Renault R35 with a 37mm gun surrounded by 43mm of armor. The next was the Hotchkiss H35 with 40mm armor and a 37mm main gun. Then there was the Char B1 with a 75mm main gun in a sponson and a 47mm gun in a turret. On paper there’s no contest, the allies should have won. What defeated the allies was the “software:” the battle doctrine of the Heer, the Command and Control Systems that applied the doctrine in battle, and the training of the German frontschwein to implement the tactical doctrine.
charon
@Anoniminous:
Your analysis lacks a few details:
A) The Germans had a number of mechanized infantry formations, while all French infantry could only move by marching.
B) The Germans had air superiority, The Stuka dive bombers were very effective tank killers.
Andrya
@Anoniminous: I write with some humility, as I have no military experience, but I would argue that the main reason for the fall of France in 1940 was the almost unbelievable incompetence of the higher up French generals. To wit:
The lesson appears to be that more troops and better equipment will not compensate for an incompetent and dysfunctional officer corps. Thanks be to G-d that describes the upper officer corps of the russian military.
By the way, although I have a different perspective, I thoroughly enjoyed your comment.
Carlo Graziani
@EZSmirkzz: If you prefer not to come across as a coy humblebragger, perhaps you should consider writing what you mean in a form less inscrutably-connected to the conversation in progress.
Or did you really merely intend to make a statement concerning your approval of reason and scorn for unreason? If so, well done, good for you, always nice to meet partisans of reasoning faculties. But stating it is akin to motherhood-approval, hardly the bold rebel stand that you appear to believe to be.
For the record, in 2002 I was aware that Bin Laden and Hussein loathed each other more than either hated the US, that the WMD hunt was a charade, and that the Iraq invasion was destined to be a strategic own goal. I really fail to see what connection those facts bear to the current conflict in Ukraine. Please enlighten us.
charon
@Andrya:
Or the limitations of poor doctrine. the French, organizationally, attached the tanks to infantry formations, limiting their ability to be moved around – bear in mind all French infantry was foot mounted. The German tanks were good enough when there were no French tanks in the area.
Andrya
@charon: I seem to remember that during the 1930s, Charles de Gaulle wrote an article advocating for the use of tanks in massed formation. No one in France paid any attention to this. Unfortunately, Gerd von Rundstedt did.
Geminid
@Andrya: The French high command paid enough attention to mark DeGaulle as a troublemaker. Later, when the French government made DeGaulle Defense Minister the Army leaders threw in the towel. They knew DeGaulle would fight and they did not want to.
I got a sense from reading histories of the fall of France in late Spring, 1940 that the highest echelons of thir army were not just incompetent, but were ambivalent as well. Churchill’s anecdote of asking a French army commander, “where are your reserves?” and being told “there are none” was telling, I think. Why would a high command that intended to fight not establish a reserve?
I think this leads to the question of the social and political resentmens that divided pre-war France. There was a component of the French upper class who thought Hitler might be the lesser of two evils, the greater one being their own Socialists and Communists. I think the Army’s high command inclined towards that view.
A similar faction existed in Great Britain. The choice of Churchill , instead of Halifax, to succeed Chamberlain marked a defeat for the accomodationists.
EZSmirkzz
@Carlo Graziani:
Your opening statement and follow on merely prove my point. However I am quite sure my intended audience is hearing me loud and clear.
Chetan Murthy
@EZSmirkzz: I’m with Carlo on this one: your comment was indecipherable.
Andrya
@Geminid: Thanks, most interesting!
UncleEbeneezer
@Andrya: Thanks I figured as much.