Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

The willow is too close to the house.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the GOP

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Take your GOP plan out of the witness protection program.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

People are complicated. Love is not.

Infrastructure week. at last.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 354: Just a Quick Update Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 354: Just a Quick Update Tonight

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier this evening. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

This is another sanctions step by our state against the nuclear industry of the terrorist state. By my decree, I put into effect the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to impose sanctions on 200 people working for the Russian nuclear industry.

We are doing everything to make sanctions against the Russian nuclear industry part of global sanctions against Russia for the war.

It is not easy. There is some resistance. But there was a time when other restrictions against Russia seemed difficult to implement as well. They did. Now they are already in place. For example, on oil and oil products from Russia.

All elements of the Russian system that are involved in the war, in providing terror and financing aggression must be isolated from the global system. This will be done!

This is all the more true for those who participated in the seizure and illegal actions at our Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Russia’s radiation blackmail of the world must be punished.

This is also something we will be discussing at various diplomatic levels next week.

This will be an equally important week for our international positions.

We are already preparing for the planned communications and negotiations. We will not interrupt the diplomatic marathon we have launched to strengthen armed and other support for Ukraine for a single week.

Today I would like to personally praise everyone who is restoring the energy capabilities of our country. Today and yesterday, the majority of Ukrainians spent without many shutdowns.

Of course, unfortunately, there were still restrictions in some districts and cities. Where the degree of destruction is too significant. Of course, with the start of the new week, consumption will increase, and therefore there will be outage schedules. But the very fact that we can have such calm days in terms of energy after the constant terrorist attacks with missiles and Shaheds, after the massive missile attack this week proves the professionalism of our power engineers and the extraordinary dedication of everyone who works on the provision of our energy system.

I am grateful to all Ukrainian power engineers, all repair crews, employees of the State Emergency Service, utility workers, regional and local authorities who helped. And to the businesses that have been involved in the relevant work.

We must realize that this is not yet a decisive victory on the energy front. Unfortunately, there may be new terrorist attacks from Russia. There may be new restrictions if there is new destruction and consumption growth. But today and yesterday are yet another proof that by working together and helping each other, Ukrainians are doing great things.

So let’s stay united! Do not waste a single day or a single week! All for the sake of Ukraine!

Thank you to everyone who works for our country! Glory to each and every one who is in combat!

Glory to all those who are defending Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Chasiv Yar, Maryinka, Avdiivka and all other directions in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as along the entire frontline!

Resilience, unity and mutual support are our strength!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Vuhledar:

Bakhmut:

Vuhledar:

Kyiv:

Kharkiv:

Grozny:

The Guardian brings us the details of how Iran is getting their munitions to Russia for use in Ukraine:

Iran has used boats and a state-owned airline to smuggle new types of advanced long-range armed drones to Russia for use in its war on Ukraine, sources inside the Middle Eastern country have revealed.

At least 18 of the drones were delivered to Vladimir Putin’s navy after Russian officers and technicians made a special visit to Tehran in November, where they were shown a full range of Iran’s technologies.

On that occasion, the 10-man Russian delegation selected six Mohajer-6 drones, which have a range of around 200km and carry two missiles under each wing, along with 12 Shahed 191 and 129 drones, which also have an air-to-ground strike capability.

Unlike the better-known Shahed 131 and 136 drones, which have been heavily used by Russia in kamikaze raids against Ukrainian targets, the higher-flying drones are designed to deliver bombs and return to base intact.

The disclosures demonstrate the increasing closeness between Iran and Russia, which share a hostility towards the US, since Moscow launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine a year ago.

Last August, US officials said that Iran had begun showcasing the Shahed 191 and 129 drones in June to Russia, and said they expected Tehran to sell them to Moscow. Mohajer-6 drones have been downed in Ukraine since September, with officials displaying one in November to the Guardian in Kyiv.

Increasingly short of missiles to sustain its brutal bombing campaign of Ukraine’s towns and cities, Russia has turned to Iran and also North Korea to replenish its stocks. Many in Ukraine fear Russia plans to launch a major attack around the time of the one-year anniversary of the war in less than two weeks.

Meanwhile, the US, the UK and other western governments have been monitoring the arms cooperation keenly, partly in an effort to prevent it from escalating. Moscow has also sought to buy ballistic missiles, although there is not any public evidence that Tehran has agreed to send them.

Russia may have been keen to obtain the more advanced drones, loosely comparable with the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, because Ukraine has become increasingly effective in stopping the smaller suicide drones, which have to fly in low before striking.

In October, Kyiv was hit by a Shahed 136 drone attack, which killed five when one got through and exploded on a house near the city’s railway station. But in January, Ukraine’s air force said it knocked out 45 of 45 drones after a mass attack timed to coincide with the new year.

More at the link!

What’s American air defense doing?

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

40Comments

  2. 2.

    Elizabelle

    May Patron get his jet fighter(s).

    And yeah, re the electrical workers.  Although they’ll be plenty in demand at home, too.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Ponomarenko’s second tweet is *chef’s kiss*.

    I am once again just in awe of what the Ukrainian army has done and continues to do. Reading these updates from Bakhmut and Vuhledar, it makes me think (and forgive me for mentioning the fucker) that old Rumsfeld quote about going to war with the army you have, not the army you want…like, Ukraine might be the one place where those two options are one and the same.

    One year ago today, mass rally in Ukraine against the looming invasion.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Anonymous At Work

    Four objects in a week.  Really polarizing between “Crap! We made a mistake in some calculations!” and “Let’s keep the US Secretary of State from visiting!”  Probably too early to know but since Objects #2, 3, and 4 seem small, it feels like China is either trolling us or feeding the Fox “News” trolls.

  5. 5.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Alison Rose: UA would want a few hundred thousand more troops at least.  It feels like RU has no bottom and even Vuhledar’s burn-rate isn’t going to slow them down.  Russia is gaining ground with Pyrrhic victories and might have enough mobiks to win the war.  RU will lose the peace because they are burning their workforce at both ends, via conscription or flight to neighboring countries.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    @Anonymous At Work: Well, sure. Obviously they’re outnumbered in the technical sense. That’s not what I was talking about. I was referring to their grit and bravery and strength and ingenuity and all of that. That in every way imaginable, their troops, just like Zelenskyy, turned out to be the exact right people for the job.

  7. 7.

    Bill Arnold

    @Anonymous At Work:

    Four objects in a week.

    According to this reporting, basically (doing some reading/guessing between the lines), an airspace defense sensory system is an intrusion detection system that consumes an enormous amount of data, looks for anomalies, and filters out events that are considered safely ignorable. After the first balloon shootdown, the filters were relaxed to cover (at least; might be more relaxations) weather balloons drifting along at wind speed at certain ranges of altitudes. The details of these filters are not generally talked about for national security reasons; some of the balloon activity is very possibly probing of these systems.
    New unidentified ‘cylindrical’ object shot down over Canada – NORAD and military aircraft spotted and tracked the latest object, as search continues off Alaska for aircraft downed Friday (Dan Lamothe and Alex Horton, February 11, 2023)

    The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that sensory equipment absorbs a lot of raw data, and filters are used so humans and machines can make sense of what is collected. But that process always runs the risk of leaving out something important, the official said.
    “We basically opened the filters,” the official added, much like a car buyer unchecking boxes on a website to broaden the parameters of what can be searched. That change does not yet fully answer what is going on, the official cautioned, and whether stepping back to look at more data is yielding more hits — or if these latest incursions are part of a more deliberate action by an unknown country or adversary.

  8. 8.

    Bill Arnold

    This is just depressing. A (the?) Russian Foreign Ministry spokewoman sounds very much like an arrogant ignorant American authoritarian rightwinger willingly locked in a false-reality epistemic bubble. Apparently never taught actual facts about  Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, or Lend-lease, or etc. Considers transphobia-spreading more important that most other things. Is worried that Russia will have to deal with “non-humans”. (That last was weird. Some additional cultural/narrative translation might be needed.)
    Russia’s Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman denigrates Western alliance in WWII (Russian Media Monitor, Youtube, 9:23 – Maria Zahharova)
    (via)

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    @zhena gogolia:
    Been seeing that construct (looks very much like person X, but is saying stupid clueless things) around the last several weeks at least.
    Will be increasingly edgy as generated/”deep fake” videos continue to improve.

  18. 18.

    UncleEbeneezer

    Adam, have you written anything yet about Seymour Hersh’s (I assume bullshit) claims that the US was responsible?  I’ve been seeing it picking up steam on social media and I suspect Russian disinfo campaign.  I notice that no reputable foreign policy/IR people are buying it.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anonymous At Work:

    @Bill Arnold:

    The relaxing of filters will almost certainly generate a lot of false alarms. Given the current political climate, it is safer to shoot unknown/unidentified flying objects (when it is safe to do so), rather than let it go on & find out it is a surveillance platform later.

    The object shot down over Alaska likely came from Russia (based on wind pattern), if it was not a NWS balloon. The one shot down over Yukon likely came from China. The octagonal object shot down over Lake Huron seems to be more likely a drone than a balloon.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @UncleEbeneezer: The entire reporting was based on 1 anonymous source. I don’t think it can be taken seriously at this point. (& this is disregarding Hersh’s credibility issues over the years.)

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    “The enemy made another fruitless attempt to advance with several tanks through the minefield.”

    Because that always works out so WELL !!!!

    Jesus Christ on a Diesel Powered Pogo Stick …. we are plumb bobbing the depths of military incompetence.

  23. 23.

    Anoniminous

    @Alison Rose:

    If the 2022 Ukrainian Army was the 2014 Ukrainian Army the Russians would be in Kyiv tonight.  Credit General Valerii Zaluzhnyi and others who faced a horrendous job in changing the Ukrainian Army from a joke into a force capable and willing to defend their country in eight years.  That is a unique achievement in modern military history.

  25. 25.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     

    They were a Soviet Pattern Conscript army, riddled with pro-Russians, corruption and compromised communications and command.

    Sounds like a pretty good definition of “A Joke” to me.

  28. 28.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    denigrates those who fought.

    Ukraine, despite everything only broke into the top 20 in Global Firepower Review in 2011. Canada has always been in the top 20, and Russia has almost always been #2.

  29. 29.

    EZSmirkzz

    At the risk of irritating some of you, back in 2003 when we were trying to stop the war on Iraq we became familiar with the concept of logical fallacies which seem to blossom like flowers in the spring, ht during war time. War as you know is politics by other means. But don’t discount its’ efficacy in day to day political discourse.

    Definition of a ‘Fallacy’

    A misconception resulting from flaw in reasoning, or a trick or illusion in thoughts that often succeeds in obfuscating facts/truth.

    While learning this stuff, it may be used as a sword, it is most useful as a shield.

    I’m not posting this as accusation of anyone,( that would in fact be a fallacy in its’ own right,) but as a useful tool in any debate or discussion that you may find yourself engaged in. .

  30. 30.

    Anoniminous

    @Jay: ​
     
    Something gearheads and airheads never understand is

      equipment only gets you so far

    .

    When it came to ground force equipment France and the UK were heads and shoulders above Germany in 1940. The majority of Germany armor was the Panzer I and Panzer II. The first had a machine gun and the armor protection of aluminum foil. The second had a 20mm gun and a machine gun. The most common French tank was the Renault R35 with a 37mm gun surrounded by 43mm of armor. The next was the Hotchkiss H35 with 40mm armor and a 37mm main gun. Then there was the Char B1 with a 75mm main gun in a sponson and a 47mm gun in a turret. On paper there’s no contest, the allies should have won. What defeated the allies was the “software:” the battle doctrine of the Heer, the Command and Control Systems that applied the doctrine in battle, and the training of the German frontschwein to implement the tactical doctrine.

  31. 31.

    charon

    @Anoniminous:

    Your analysis lacks a few details:

    A)  The Germans had a number of mechanized infantry formations, while all French infantry could only move by marching.

    B)  The Germans had air superiority,  The Stuka dive bombers were very effective tank killers.

  32. 32.

    Andrya

    @Anoniminous:  I write with some humility, as I have no military experience, but I would argue that the main reason for the fall of France in 1940 was the almost unbelievable incompetence of the higher up French generals.   To wit:

    1. They failed to extend the Maginot line to the sea, instead having the Maginot line meet up with the Belgian equivalent.  WW1 should have told them that Germany would attack France through Belgium, and commonsense should have told them that Belgium (very small and densely populated) could not stand up to blitz type bombing.
    2. They assumed the Ardennes forest was impassible without ever sending a few tanks through to verify if that was true.
    3. They had an extended front- they knew the Germans could select the point of attack and would therefore have local superiority of force- but had no reserves behind the line.  (In Churchill’s “History of the Second World War” he mentions that he was absolutely incredulous at this.)
    4. (Relatively minor, but still.)  In Marc Bloch’s “Strange Defeat” (which I highly recommend) Bloch used his position as a logistics officer to collect data on German troop positions/movements and sent them to the French General Staff.  Who promptly locked them away in a safe and refused to share them, because this was TOP SECRET HOT STUFF!!!!  The irony being that the Germans KNEW where they were and where they were going, it was French line officers who needed this information.

    The lesson appears to be that more troops and better equipment will not compensate for an incompetent and dysfunctional officer corps.  Thanks be to G-d that describes the upper officer corps of the russian military.

    By the way, although I have a different perspective, I thoroughly enjoyed your comment.

  33. 33.

    Carlo Graziani

    @EZSmirkzz: If you prefer not to come across as a coy humblebragger, perhaps you should consider writing what you mean in a form less inscrutably-connected to the conversation in progress.

    Or did you really merely intend to make a statement concerning your approval of reason and scorn for unreason? If so, well done, good for you, always nice to meet partisans of reasoning faculties. But stating it is akin to motherhood-approval, hardly the bold rebel stand that you appear to believe to be.

    For the record, in 2002 I was aware that Bin Laden and Hussein loathed each other more than either hated the US, that the WMD hunt was a charade, and that the Iraq invasion was destined to be a strategic own goal. I really fail to see what connection those facts bear to the current conflict in Ukraine. Please enlighten us.

  34. 34.

    charon

    @Andrya:

    The lesson appears to be that more troops and better equipment will not compensate for an incompetent and dysfunctional officer corps.

    Or the limitations of poor doctrine. the French, organizationally, attached the tanks to infantry formations, limiting their ability to be moved around – bear in mind all French infantry was foot mounted. The German tanks were good enough when there were no French tanks in the area.

  35. 35.

    Andrya

    @charon:  I seem to remember that during the 1930s, Charles de Gaulle wrote an article advocating for the use of tanks in massed formation.  No one in France paid any attention to this.  Unfortunately, Gerd von Rundstedt did.

  36. 36.

    Geminid

    @Andrya: The French high command paid enough attention to mark DeGaulle as a troublemaker. Later, when the French government made DeGaulle Defense Minister the Army leaders threw in the towel. They knew DeGaulle would fight and they did not  want to.

    I got a sense from reading  histories of the fall of France in late Spring, 1940 that the highest echelons of thir army were not just incompetent, but were ambivalent as well. Churchill’s anecdote of asking a French army commander, “where are your reserves?” and being told “there are none” was telling, I think. Why would a high command that intended to fight not establish a reserve?

    I think this leads to the question of the social and political resentmens that divided pre-war France. There was a component of the French upper class who thought Hitler might be the lesser of two evils, the greater one being their own Socialists and Communists. I think the Army’s high command inclined towards that view.

    A similar faction existed in Great Britain. The choice of Churchill , instead of Halifax, to succeed Chamberlain marked a defeat for the accomodationists.

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