Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

This blog will pay for itself.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

An almost top 10,000 blog!

I’d try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Tick tock motherfuckers!

It’s the corruption, stupid.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Despite his magical powers, I don’t think Trump is thinking this through, to be honest.

I know this must be bad for Joe Biden, I just don’t know how.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 356: A Brief Update Tonight

War for Ukraine Day 356: A Brief Update Tonight

by | 57 Comments

This post is in: , , , , , , ,

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I’ve got a particularly busy and mental energy consuming week this week. So this week’s updates are likely to be more bare boned than usual.

Here’s the whole video:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below and English transcript after the jump:

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is the day of another Ramstein, a meeting of the group of military support for Ukraine. 54 partner countries. This is the ninth such meeting. We have got regular strong decisions on protecting our country and strengthening our warriors.

Our partners have confirmed more air defense systems, more tanks, more artillery and shells, and more training for our military. As we heard today, Ukraine must be successful. And here we agree: there must be success.

Of course, not everything about Ramstein can be reported in public. Much of the agreements and discussions should be kept behind closed doors of the Contact Group. But I can say for sure that the basic trends remain unchanged. Ukraine and its partners are doing everything together to make the terrorist state lose. And to make it happen as soon as possible.

We can see now that the Kremlin is trying to squeeze all possible aggression potential out of Russia. They are in a hurry. Because they know that the world is still stronger, but it takes time to accumulate its strength.

Therefore, speed is very important. Speed in everything. In decision-making. In the implementation of decisions. In delivery. In training. Speed saves lives, speed brings back safety.

And I thank all our partners who realize that speed is important. I thank all of our American friends for their leadership and systematic coordination of the Ramstein meetings, as well as for the personal participation of Mr. Lloyd Austin, Secretary of Defense of the United States, and Mr. Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, in the meetings.

Today I met with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada, who was on a visit to Ukraine. The topic of our conversation was also, so to speak, “Ramstein-based”. First of all, defense support, new weapons for Ukraine, and new sanctions against Russia. I thanked Canada for the support it has already provided. And we discussed in detail with the Minister what is needed now to continue to oust the occupier from the Ukrainian land.

We are actively preparing for the foreign policy events of the second half of this week. We have to go through the week in the tone set by Ramstein for it. Accumulating results for Ukraine.

Today we have very good news from a group of our rescuers working in Türkiye. On the ninth day after the devastating earthquake, they managed to rescue a woman. Our SES rescuers pulled her out of the rubble and handed her over to doctors.

It is very important not to lose hope under any circumstances and continue to fight for life. I am thankful to our entire rescue team!

And, of course, today, just as every day, I stay in touch with our military, with the commanders. I had several meetings. The situation on the frontline, especially in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remains extremely difficult. It is literally a battle for every meter of Ukrainian land.

We must understand the significance of these battles. Every meter won there is a defense of our entire country. Every day that our heroes endure in Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Maryinka and other cities and communities in Donbas means the reduction of Russian aggression for weeks. That is where the unprecedented destruction of Russian potential is taking place now. Everything that the enemy loses in our Donbas, it will not be able to restore. And this is exactly the potential of Russian aggression that the leadership of the terrorist state expected to destroy our entire Ukraine.

Glory to everyone who is now fighting for Ukraine!

We are doing everything to give our warriors more weapons, longer-range weapons and greater might for the offensive we are preparing.

And… today is Valentine’s Day. I sincerely congratulate everyone who is in love on this holiday, on this day. And I congratulate all those in love with Ukraine!

Together we will win!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Bakhmut and Kreminna:

 

Bakhmut:

Here’s further details from The New York Times: (emphasis mine)

A Times analysis suggests that an intentional strike, not an indiscriminate attack, most likely killed Pete Reed. It is unclear whether the attackers knew he was with a group of aid workers.

Roughly a minute after an American paramedic, Pete Reed, and a team of aid workers began tending to a wounded civilian in the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on Feb. 2, they were attacked. Mr. Reed, a former U.S. Marine volunteering on the war’s front lines, was killed, and several of his colleagues were wounded.

Volunteers at the scene initially attributed the strike to indiscriminate Russian shelling. But a frame-by-frame analysis of a video taken at the location — and shared with The New York Times — shows that Mr. Reed, who was unarmed, died in a targeted strike by a guided missile almost certainly fired by Russian troops.

It is unclear if the Russians knew the group was made up of aid workers. But its convoy had markings that should have signaled to the Russians the type of vehicles they were hitting. One of the vehicles was clearly marked with a red cross, and the type of weapon used in the attack — a laser-guided antitank missile — is usually fired when a gunman sees and selects a target.

Still, the target in this case, a white Mercedes-Benz van, did not have any clearly visible medical markings, and while the aid workers were unarmed at least one medic was wearing military-style camouflage.

The footage appears to show that the strike involved a Kornet antitank guided missile, which has a range of around three miles. Mr. Reed and the aid workers were at a slightly elevated position along a street that led toward the Russian front line, around two miles away.

Mr. Laidinen said that his vehicle’s dash camera had also recorded the episode, and that the footage showed a second missile strike, which was aimed at another vehicle but missed its target. The footage has yet to be made public.

A volunteer named Roma, who was standing near Mr. Reed when the missile struck and who was wounded in the blast, told The Times in an interview that there had been no military units nearby. One of the vehicles at the scene was clearly marked as an ambulance, he said.

He provided only his given name because of safety concerns.

A photograph published by The Wall Street Journal shows an injured Norwegian medic running from the scene of the attack. It also shows the ambulance marked with a red cross on a white background across the street from where Mr. Reed and other volunteers were attacked.

Experts said the type of weapon used should have enabled the attacker to identify the nature of the target. With weapons such as these, “you have an expectation that the firer is going to have the ability to differentiate between a medical worker and a combatant,” said Marc Garlasco, a war crimes investigator who is in Poland training Ukrainian teams investigating war crimes.

Mr. Garlasco added that the episode required further investigation, but that on its face it was a “potential war crime.”

A video of the aftermath shows the aid workers’ white van destroyed by the attack. Debris is strewn around the area, and a body is lying lifeless on the ground.

Much more at the link!

Also, they’ve posted the video of this war crime in the article at the link. It has a warning on it and doesn’t autoplay on my computer, but just keep that in mind before you click through.

Kharkiv to Bakhmut:

Speaking of, Kharkiv:

Finally, The Washington Post has reporting on the Russians fleeing Russia:

YEREVAN, Armenia — As Russian troops stormed into Ukraine last February, sending millions of Ukrainians fleeing for their lives, thousands of Russians also raced to pack their bags and leave home, fearing the Kremlin would shut the borders and impose martial law.

Some had long opposed rising authoritarianism, and the invasion was a last straw. Others were driven by economic interest, to preserve livelihoods or escape the bite of sanctions. Then, last autumn, a military mobilization spurred hundreds of thousands of men to run.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has set off a historic exodus of his own people. Initial data shows that at least 500,000, and perhaps nearly 1 million, have left in the year since the invasion began — a tidal wave on scale with emigration following the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991.

Now, as then, the departures stand to redefine the country for generations. And the flood may still be in its early stages. The war seems nowhere near finished. Any new conscription effort by the Kremlin will spark new departures, as will worsening economic conditions, which are expected as the conflict drags on.

The huge outflow has swelled existing Russian expatriate communities across the world, and created new ones.

Some fled nearby to countries like Armenia and Kazakhstan, across borders open to Russians. Some with visas escaped to Finland, the Baltic states or elsewhere in Europe. Others ventured farther, to the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Thailand, Argentina. Two men from Russia’s Far East even sailed a small boat to Alaska.

The financial cost, while vast, is impossible to calculate. In late December, Russia’s Communications Ministry reported that 10 percent of the country’s IT workers had left in 2022 and not returned. Russia’s parliament is now debating a package of incentives to bring them back.

But there has also been talk in parliament of punishing Russians who left by stripping them of their assets at home. Putin has referred to these people as “scum” and said their exit would “cleanse” the country — even though some who left did not oppose him, or the war.

With the government severely restricting dissent, and implementing punishment for criticism of the war, those remaining in the depleted political opposition also faced a choice this year: prison or exile. Most chose exile. Activists and journalists are now clustered in cities such as Berlin and the capitals of Lithuania, Latvia and Georgia.

“This exodus is a terrible blow for Russia,” said Tamara Eidelman, a Russian historian who moved to Portugal after the invasion. “The layer that could have changed something in the country has now been washed away.”

While Ukrainian refugees were embraced in the West, many countries shunned the Russians, uncertain whether they were friends or foes, and whether, on some level, the entire country was culpable. Some nations have blocked arrivals by imposing entry restrictions or denying new visas, at times spreading panic among Russians already abroad, especially students.

Meanwhile, the influx of Russians into countries such as Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, which have long sent immigrants to Russia, set off political tremors, straining ties between Moscow and the other former Soviet states. Real estate prices in those countries have shot up, causing tensions with local populations.

Nearly a year after the start of the invasion — and the new outflow of Russians — Washington Post journalists traveled to Yerevan and to Dubai for a close look at how the emigres are faring, and to ask if they ever plan to return. Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, a former Soviet republic, is a destination for Russians with lower financial mobility — an Orthodox Christian country where Russian is the second language. By contrast, pricey Dubai, in the Persian Gulf, is predominantly Muslim and Arabic-speaking, and attracts wealthier Russians seeking either glitz or business opportunity.

Much more at the link!

I want to make two quick points. The first is that Professor Eidelman is wrong. There is no evidence whatsoever that the Russians who have fled fled because they’d like to see a change in the way Russia is governed. Rather all of the evidence we do have, largely from Levada Center polling, is they fled because they didn’t want to serve in the war and, most likely, get killed or wounded. Secondly, there has not been one anti-war protest organized by any of these Russians who have fled to safety in the stans, the Arab gulf states, or anywhere else that it might be safe to do so.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Here’s the TikTok version if you prefer:

@patron__dsns

Написав пісню про любов! Усім любовний валентинковий лизь 👅💘 #песпатрон

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

The caption machine translates as:

I wrote a song about love! A love Valentine’s lick for everyone 👅💘 #песпатрон

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

57Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Just me or has the volume of Russian drone attacks gone down?  Are RU switching to all-human-meat-shields, all-the-time now?

    And what’s the RU reserve of Su bombers like that they can lose 5+ a week? I keep waiting to see signs that RU forces are down to rocks and harsh language.

  2. 2.

    zhena gogolia

    No place is safe for Russians to organize an anti-war protest. I don’t understand why you keep saying this. And have you ever had to uproot yourself and flee to another country? If so, did you have time and energy for organizing protests? Even if you didn’t have family left in that country who could be retaliated against?

    It’s very easy to sit in safety in the U.S. and prescribe what other people should be doing.

  3. 3.

    Heidi Mom

    Greetings from Carlisle, Adam!  I just wanted to say thanks for always including us on your to-do lists.

  4. 4.

    Princess

    When I was in Austria in November, I had the sense I was surrounded by Russians — heard a lot of what sounded like Russian. Also the shops in Vienna …. Iota more jewelry shops and high- end stores than I felt the economy warranted. I had the feeling I was in an oligarch playground.

  6. 6.

    Anonymous At Work

    @zhena gogolia: There are thousands to tens of thousands of young and male Russians in Yerevan, ARM right now, with nothing to do but wait for something back home to change.  “Critical mass of unemployed and unengaged young men” is what makes Chinese leadership, pardon the expression, shit their pants in their sleep.  It’s the recipe for unrest.  And I can’t imagine that Armenia has the space/housing to soak up all the Russian AWOLs without packing them in tightly.

    No sign of protest means none of the refugees blame Putin or Russian officials for their refugee status.

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    When articles say it’s not clear if the firing orc knew Reed was a medical worker, my only thought is…as if it would’ve made a difference? They don’t care who they kill. They just want to kill. That’s been the story from the beginning.

    I’m always moved by Zelenskyy’s addresses, the way he covers so much information and is so clear and open (at least, when it’s appropriate to be so) and always sounding so resolute and steadfast while also calm. And then he manages to do such a smooth emotional switch and say something sweet like “And I congratulate all those in love with Ukraine!”

    And they will degrade further:

    Russia has degraded to the point of openly admiring and glorifying an illegal mercenary group practicing suicidal human wave attacks by convicts, as well as sledgehammer executions.
    That’s at the level of state officials and parliamentarians.
    Just think about this for a minute.
    — Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 13, 2023

    Thank you as always, Adam, especially for your two points at the end. Hope your week isn’t too stressful.

  12. 12.

    Traveller

    @zhena gogolia: ​
     
    I appreciate seeing your thoughts in these regards. As you note, it is not easy being an émigré and there is a lot of anti Russian sentiment out there, (and you can count me among those), but I have also had ties with immigrant communities and so I know the truth of which you speak. Best wishes to you and yours.

  13. 13.

    Anoniminous

    I dislike the emphasis on Bakhmut. I think it’s a mistake. In Modern War it is foolish to get too emotionally invested in holding a tract of real estate.​ It can too easily end-up costing too many casualties when the smart move is to retreat.

  15. 15.

    Jay

    I wrote about the most-overlooked part of Wednesday’s Oversight Committee hearing: The revelation that “thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands” of Russian disinformation accounts are still active on the platform, waging an ongoing war on reality. https://t.co/nIB0FGkCLT— Caroline Orr Bueno, Ph.D (@RVAwonk) February 13, 2023

  17. 17.

    Lyrebird

    @Anonymous At Work: …with nothing to do but wait for something back home to change

    That raises an important point, but it doesn’t speak to @zhena gogolia: ‘s point about retaliation.  Ditto for Adam’s thought of where the young men ar.

    Where are their moms, girlfriends, younger brothers?  I am not saying these guys are necessarily heroes, just trying to underline something important.

    Several weeks ago one of the DKos writers posted something where a RU protestor was tortured, maybe for putting flowers in front of a monument.

    The two RU journalists who recently made anti-war statements are in other countries but not allowing people to say which country.

    ETA: I know nothing, pretty much, but it seems really clear that the sooner UKR can WIN, the better for the whole world.  I am glad Uncle Joe is leading Uncle Sam with that in mind.

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    Adam, the problem is generalization. Making a statement like

    There is no evidence whatsoever that the Russians who have fled fled because they’d like to see a change in the way Russia is governed. Rather all of the evidence we do have, largely from Levada Center polling, is they fled because they didn’t want to serve in the war and, most likely, get killed or wounded.

    …is a really coarse overgeneralization, unworthy of a social scientist. I’ve been unable to locate a Leveda Center poll of Russian emigrès, but whatever it may have found, even if a majority left for fear of being drafted, then by definition the minority did not. And denying them the dignity of their choice because of their nationality is not defensible.

    By the way, where is that poll?

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    TheMoscowTimes (from January 12):

    […]

    One October evening, a Russian friend in Yerevan had a small party at his apartment where all the guests were recent arrivals from Russia. Discussing the war, I told them about an experience I had in Tbilisi meeting some friends from Kyiv. The café where we met was full of Russians who seemed completely oblivious to the war, which made my Ukrainian friends very angry. They asked me why Russians didn’t protest against their government even in the safety of Tbilisi. One said: “I’m angry that Russians can continue to live as if nothing has changed, but Ukrainians do not have that option. The war has affected us all, whether we’ve left the country or not. It’s not fair.”

    I asked the other party guests what they thought about this statement. One said that “we” weren’t capable of influencing anything, while another said that Russians didn’t want to protest and preferred to simply live in peace, while a third defended himself by going on the attack, saying he had “donated money to the Ukrainian army.”

    The three different answers represent a good cross-section of anti-war Russian society, and show how difficult it is for Russians to unite, even against an aggressive, pointless war started by their own government.

    Living in Yerevan, I understand that I can’t regularly protest here against the war, or against Putin. We are migrants to our country’s former colonies. These societies have their own conflicts to worry about, and protesting against Putin would mean appropriating their agenda for our own purposes. In every post-Soviet nation, people have their own attitude to the war in Ukraine, and also toward Russians, regardless of our political views. Many of us emigres find it difficult to accept that we are now “enemies” at home as well as uninvited guests in countries still traumatized by Russian imperialism.

    While I have made Yerevan my home, for many Russians who have fled abroad, the Armenian capital is just a transit point on the way to Europe. If I can understand why protesting against the war is a complicated issue in countries like Armenia, it is a different situation for those Russians who have managed to relocate to Europe.

    I would like to ask migrants from Russia who live in Europe: Why don’t you join anti-war protests there? After all, there is no personal risk — and no risk of appropriating the local political agenda. Ukrainians have posted photos on social networks showing thousands of Iranians in the center of Berlin protesting against the regime in their own country, followed by photos of empty Berlin streets with the comment “This is how Russians protest against the war.”

    Recently some of my friends in Berlin organized a protest calling for an end to Russian imperialism. But hardly anyone turned up…

    I think this anonymous writer gives a decent picture about the various issues involved, but I think misses an important one – the power of the domestic press.

    Google tells me that the first big national protest against the Vietnam War was at the Pentagon in October 1967. By that time, the US was already on the way to suffering nearly 20,000 dead.

    How many Americans who fled to Canada protested the war there?

    It takes time for the public to change its opinion.

    VVP controlling the press and much of the information that Russians have received for going on 23 years makes it easier for him to control how people react. And how they think about what’s going on in the world…

    Ultimately, this is VVP’s war. He’s responsible.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  21. 21.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Another Scott:

    Ultimately, this is VVP’s war. He’s responsible.

    Vladimir Vladimirovich is not firing artillery or launching cruise missiles, and is not raping and torturing children in Kherson or Mariupol.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: These are first-rate points. Not only is there a greater diversity of outlooks than can be captured by generalization to “all Russian emigrès”, but the proportions are certain to change over time.

    And to those in the West who believe that they would find it easy to choose to resist Putin were they born Russian, all I can say is that as a statistical matter, in all likelihood you delude yourselves. And your faculty of empathy is in need of repair.

  23. 23.

    Traveller

    @Anoniminous: ​
     

    Dear Anoniminous, I tend to agree with you in not investing some super meaning to Bakhmut, and yet, The Ukrainian Command Seem Unusually Secure in their Confidence to Hold Bakhmut…like you, I think the situation very problematic…and the surrender of this whole pocket of troops would be disastrous…but I do not presumed to know more about the situation on the ground than the Ukrainians.

    There may be factors we are not sufficiently aware of…eg finding, fixing and holding the enemy when you are in a superior position to inflict causalities….(I don’t know)

    See here:

  24. 24.

    frosty

    @zhena gogolia: I agree with Carlo, your perspective is valuable and appreciated. If you’re out for tonight because of the comment above yours it’s understandable. I hope you’re not out of these threads for good though.

  27. 27.

    Chetan Murthy

    The Russian Federation contains more than  *Russians*, and the non-Russians are treated pretty poorly there by all accounts.  Here’s one of many interesting little snapshots of what non-Russians in the RF think: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/02/kumyk-activist-wants-non-russians-to.html
    Staunton, Feb. 11 – Not only have Russian liberals reacted more negatively than the Kremlin to the meeting of the Forum of the Free Peoples of Post-Russia in Brussels, Kharun Sidorov says; but their negative comments have provoked responses from the non-Russian and regional activists that show just how deep the divide between the two camps now is.
                The Prague commentator points out that the comments of Russian liberals were so hostile and dismissive – they labeled those at the Brussels meetings “freaks” and denounced them for helping Putin by raising the specter Russia is about to fall apart make it entirely understandable that regionalists and non-Russians have reacted so strongly (idelreal.org/a/32266000.html).
                Just how angry many non-Russians are about these liberal attacks is reflected in comments by the Free Kumykia telegram channel (t.me/freeQMQ/651) and by the words of Oyrat-Kalmyk activist Daavr Dorzhin both on his telegram channel and in an article posted on Kasparov.ru (t.me/daavrta/595 and kasparovru.com/material.php?id=63E28EC7A8162).
                The Free Kumykia telegram channels says in response to liberal criticism that “we must not miss the chance to finally shut up the Russian opposition on the issue of the indigenous peoples. They have gotten used to the idea that if they oppose the regime, then they can do anything they like.”

  30. 30.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Traveller: Briar Rabbit, don’t try to take the ruined city in the valley, pre-sighted by our artillery in the hills.

    UA is making a deal out of it since they need to grind RU forces hard and tie down mobik forces to preserve the lines to the south and the north.  Rail lines matter more than by-foot interior lines but needs breathing room in the east to move supplies in the south, and potentially hold Crimea.

  32. 32.

    Anoniminous

    For what it is worth ….

    Norway And Estonia Agree: Russia Isn’t Going To End Its War On Ukraine

    “The intelligence agencies of Estonia and Norway in recent days both have released strategic reports. Both came to the same conclusions about the war in Ukraine.

    Yes, Russian forces have performed very badly in the first 11 months of the wider fighting. Yes, the Russians have suffered staggering casualties.

    But no, that doesn’t mean the Kremlin is about to order a retreat. Every indication is that the Russian army will draft more men, recondition more old tanks … and keep fighting. Indefinitely.”

  34. 34.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Anoniminous: In my opinion, no better-informed than anyone here on actual UA thinking: I don’t believe that the UA accords any more strategic or political value to Bakhmut than they did to any of the Donbas town that they have retreated from. But the UA does have a history of profiting from Russian political obsessions that distort their strategic thinking.

    Bakhmut checks that box to a T. It is the perfect grinder of Russian hamburger. To the extent that strategic concern has turned to managing the influx of Russian manpower, finding opportunities to trade casualties at favorable exchange rates is a very sensible choice. Michael Kofman noted in the WotR podcast last week that the UA was holding Bakhmut with National Guard and similar second-line troops, indicating that they are, again, husbanding strength for use after the Russians exhaust themselves. This, incidentally, was the same approach that the UA took to the defense of Severodonetsk and Luhansk. It paid enormous dividends in Kharkhiv and Kherson.

    I expect that, just as they did all last Summer, the UA will hold on until they calculate that the benefit no longer outweighs the cost (possibly long enough to deny the Russians the gift of Bakhmut for the first anniversary of the war), then perform yet another orderly withdrawal to the next prepared defensive line, where they can grind up more Russians.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:
    at this point in time, I would not class UNG or Territorial Defence as “second class”,………

    Slava texted me on Sunday. He’s in Poland, training on Leopards. His Commander said that “this tank” was his. #2 from Canada.

  38. 38.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Carlo Graziani:

    This, incidentally, was the same approach that the UA took to the defense of Severodonetsk and Luhansk.

    Of course I meant to write “…Severodonetsk and Lysychansk…”

  39. 39.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Anoniminous: 

    The major problem with Ukraine liberating Crimea is the Isthmus of Perekop. Any assault has to go along geographically determined axis thus straight into kill zones.

    As a random internet fool, I always figured that the UA would simply cut the supply lines to Crimea. There are only two high capacity routes. The bridge and the land bridge rail line.

    I don’t think Ukraine will cut the water supply, but the soldiers will get hungry. Maybe the Russian army will be allowed to withdraw peacefully.

  40. 40.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Anoniminous: 

    But no, that doesn’t mean the Kremlin is about to order a retreat. Every indication is that the Russian army will draft more men, recondition more old tanks … and keep fighting. Indefinitely.”

    Russia’s income from oil related exports has dropped way down. They might have to look around for financial sponsors to keep going.

  41. 41.

    Roger Moore

    Orthodox Christian country where Russian is the second language.

    Armenia is not Orthodox!  The Armenian Apostolic Church split from the Orthodox church after the Council of Chalcedon.  If you want to count them as orthodox, you’d have to include pretty much any Nicene church as orthodox.

  42. 42.

    Redshift

    For what it’s worth, I think you’ve misread the context of the quote when you say this, Adam:

    The first is that Professor Eidelman is wrong. There is no evidence whatsoever that the Russians who have fled fled because they’d like to see a change in the way Russia is governed.

    The quote from Prof. Eidelman directly follows this:

    those remaining in the depleted political opposition also faced a choice this year: prison or exile. Most chose exile. Activists and journalists are now clustered in cities such as Berlin and the capitals of Lithuania, Latvia and Georgia.

    So I don’t think it was a comment on the general Russian exodus. But since the article is about the larger exodus, I can see how you might have read it that way.

  43. 43.

    J R in WV

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I would suggest that VV Putin actually is raping children in Ukraine, that he is personally responsible for every death, every explosion, every murder and war crime!

    One of my oldest and best friends since 1969 is the grandson of what I thought were Russian Jewish immigrants living in Philadelphia. I met his grandmother,  tho even after 60 years in Philly she spoke Yiddish or (now I know it was Ukrainian) what at the time I assumed was Russian. They came to America to avoid the Tsar’s draft and the Cossack pogroms.

    Mike is a retired ER doctor in Colorado now. We resisted the Vietnam War together back in the Nixon years,  just like his grandparents resisted the Tsar’s  wars in the late 1800s… so things change while they repeat history over again.

    Mike’s kid joined the Marines and was in gthe ‘Stan’s for Bush’s stupid wars…

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    @J R in WV:

    I would suggest that VV Putin actually is raping children in Ukraine, that he is personally responsible for every death, every explosion, every murder and war crime!

    I would suggest that what G&T is saying, is that while certainly Vova is giving the ultimate orders that produce all these wear crimes, in every case there is some soldier who is committing the actual crime: the actual rape, the actual torture, the actual targeting of civilians with bombs, the actual kidnapping of children.  Those soldiers, those Russians, are also guilty.  And we know that the pattern of war crimes that the Russians are committing *today* is continuous with the Russian way of war, going back at least a century and probably even earlier.  This is how Russia fights, this is how *Russians* fight.

    Saying “oh, they’re not all like that” doesn’t explain how every single neighboring country has the same widespread stories of murder, rape and pillage, of entire populations being deported to Siberia.  Every single neighboring country.

    The behaviour we’re seeing from Russian soldiers isn’t an aberration: it’s *policy*.  And policy means that at every level, including at ground-level, it’s supported.

  45. 45.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Since we have discussed the spy balloon saga in these posts, the Biden Administration is now saying the unidentified flying objects in 3 most recent shoot downs are “civilian” & “benign”.

  46. 46.

    daveNYC

    My opinion on the lack of pushback on the war on the part of the Russian populace, both in Russia or in the expat community, is that it’s mostly learned helplessness.  Putin has been Putining it up for a couple decades and nothing has stopped him or even slowed him, so why bother trying?  The one Russian poster on another board basically said that the Russian opposition’s plan for dealing with Putin was to wait for him to die, just because nothing else was working.  Then he went and pulled a major land war in Europe on them.

    What’s interesting is how the population of Iran manages to be so feisty in comparison to Russia.  Both governments have zero compunctions about killing protestors or sending them to super-torture-prison.

    Crimea: Retaking it will be slow and difficult because, I assume, Russia will have mined every inch of the place; but driving the Russians out will be easy since Ukraine would be able to control all access to the place and also the water supply.

  47. 47.

    Geminid

    @daveNYC: Russia will still have sea and air access to Crimea even after the rail and road connections are cut. For Russia, that could mean an evacuation of non-essential civilians.

    Ukraine will never assent to Russian control of Crimea. The government’s attitude was expressed by Defense Minister Resnikov after the frigate Hetman Ivan Mazepa was christened at a Turkish shipyard last October. The ship must be fitted out and will not be delivered until 2024; its home port, said Mr. Resnikov, will be Sevastopol.

    I guess the question is, will Ukraine stop fighting without retaking Crimea, if it has liberated the rest of the country? Would it agree to a ceasefire once it has forced Russia out of all other territory seized last year and in 2014? That in principle will be up to the Ukrainian government, but as a practical matter its allies will have a say.

    Ukraine will never sign a peace treaty that cedes Crimea to Russia. Most wars, however, end with a durable ceasefire. A treaty might follow within days or weeks, but it can also take years or decades.

    All that is to say, this war could end with Crimea still in Russian possesion, and the Hetman Ivan Mazepa’s first home port may be Odesa..

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @daveNYC: Regarding the difference between Russian and Iranian protests: I would not say the relative age of the two nation’s population makes the difference, but the fact that Russia’s median age is 38.8 years, while Iran’s is slightly under 32 may make a difference.

  50. 50.

    Gin & Tonic

    @J R in WV: I normally respect and appreciate your comments, but this is straight-up bullshit. Putin is not out there duct-taping a crying baby to its dead mother with a live grenade in between them; he is not dropping his pants in some dank basement to anally rape a 10 year-old. Individual russians are doing that, and blaming Putin is an absolution these animals do not deserve.

  51. 51.

    Another Scott

    @Gin & Tonic: We’re talking about different things, I think.

    The war crimes in Ukraine will quickly stop when VVP withdraws his forces.  russian forces having a change of heart and obeying the rules of war is probably a generational or longer process.

    The officers and leaders at the Nuremberg trials probably didn’t personally murder untold thousands, but they were responsible.

    My $0.02.

    Hang in there.  Victory is coming.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  52. 52.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Another Scott:

    We’re talking about different things, I think.

    No, we aren’t. I can read and understand English, and I think I write it reasonably well. I understand what I read, and I wrote what I meant. I will not tolerate people making excuses for the bestial behavior of russian soldiers in Ukraine. Yes, the war is being waged on Putin’s orders, and it can end with one phone call from him, but the war crimes are being committed by officers and men on their own initiative.

    I am friends with a Ukrainian, from eastern Ukraine, who served honorably in the (USSR’s) Red Army (post WWII, of course) and rose to the rank of colonel before retiring; for various reasons I’ve spoken with him at length about military issues. The kind of behavior we are seeing in Ukraine is not doctrine. They are not being ordered by Putin or Shoigu to behave like animals. They are choosing to do so, and those choices need to have consequences. I prefer that be a slow, painful and humiliating death, but will accept trial and punishment. Not absolution.

  53. 53.

    J R in WV

    @Gin & Tonic:

    OH, come on G&T, I’m not absolving the actual perpetrators of these vile crimes by trying to establish Putin’s total guilt. Not at all.

    I’m just trying to include all levels of leadership between the private holding the grenade and Putin managing the war from his tidy office in the Kremlin.

    Just as in the late 1960s we accused McNamara and LBJ of killing kids in Vietnam. They weren’t doing the murders either, they were just ordering the killers around and pretending they didn’t intend for kids to get killed. I protested the war until the draft board came for me, then I joined the Navy, which seemed to ignorant me much less liable to be involved in war crimes and the swamps of SE Asia.

  54. 54.

    Sally

    @Gin & Tonic: I am inclined to agree with you, G&T.  War tends to dehumanise everyone who fights.  No one can kill people without it changing them, affecting them in ways I can’t imagine.  But things like duct taping an infant to its mother with a grenade, raping babies and children (anyone, really), booby trapping food and toys in homes,  these are improvised acts of cruelty.  Thought up on the spot by individuals.  It is widespread, is not stopped by officers, or other soldiers.  There is other ample evidence too, that this Ru army is an undisciplined mob.  With support for what they do from wives, mothers, girlfriends back home (see Dimitri translated intercepted calls).  Opportunistic sadism.

  55. 55.

    Ruckus

    @Chetan Murthy:

    It is not necessarily supported, it may just not be given a shit about. If the same activity is allowed by (IOW not stopped/slowed way down) military for decades, it is condoned. It seems to me that the russian military really isn’t any different than it was in WWII. Which wasn’t a whole lot different than WWI.  Tactics have remained similar, makeup of the military is similar or the same, which is rigid top down, almost zero enlisted leadership, something this country has changed from for over a century. Sure it’s still top down and always will be. But there are levels and have been for a very long time. I was part of that intermediate leadership when I served. Orders came down by levels, sure the captain was still the ultimate in charge of the ship, but I was in charge of a department that cared for all the navigation equipment, any ships information not part of other departments equipment, all interior (only onboard) communications equipment and function, specialty power generation for our equipment and other departments that use the same power (440V 400HZ). All departments were like that, enlisted men in charge. Without us the ship didn’t work. Just over 300 men, 15- 20 were officers, maybe 20 were senior enlisted.

  56. 56.

    Ruckus

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I am going to assume that even in Russia everyone is responsible for their singular actions. Sure you might do something that the state tells you to do but in every human on the planet, we have at least some level of internal responsibility to the other citizens of where we live and breathe. The state may not give a rats ass if you rape someone, you are still raping them.

  57. 57.

    Ruckus

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Having served in a military (US) I think a lot of the problems is that Russia does nothing to stop it’s military members from treating the civilians in it’s stolen countries like they are things that can be used and tossed away. The US military takes any member acting like that as a major problem that is solved as soon as possible. Now in a war zone that is different than in an occupied country because there might be less consideration given civilians, not that there should be but in a war zone you are killing or being killed, not just walking down the street. Of course you also have less time for cavorting around, survival being considered slightly important.

Comments are closed.