(Image by NEIVANMADE)
If you’re going to spend hours arguing about average incomes in Russia, just do us all a favor and click through to ROSSTAT, which is the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia. Make sure you use a VPN and a secure browser. Here’s the link to the English language site. If you scroll down under Indicators you’ll see the “Average monthly accrued wage of employees for the Russian Federation, October 2021” is 54649 roubles. You can also just scroll down this page and download the XLSX files if you want to have the data for whatever. Though if you do, please note the average real income is presented as a percentage of the previous year. Which is why for 2021 all of Russia is listed as 103.1. As in the 2021 average real income was 103.1% of 2020’s. I don’t cook Russia’s books, I just tell you about it. Enjoy!
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
The world is aware of a fundamental role of our maritime grain exports for food security – address by the President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
31 May 2023 – 22:53
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
Today I am on a working trip to our Odesa.
Here I thanked our warriors for defending the region and the whole of Ukraine. In particular, I visited a hospital and our wounded defenders. I wished them a speedy recovery. I was honored to present state awards. I thanked our doctors.
I held a special and lengthy meeting in Odesa on the security and social situation in the region. The regional leadership, military, law enforcers.
The region is a priority from all points of view. It is Odesa region that is one of the pillars of security for our entire south, and therefore for the state.
The Security Service of Ukraine has achieved very important results in Odesa region in countering Russian saboteurs.
General Moskalov delivered a report on the situation in the areas of responsibility of the Odesa operational and strategic groups of troops. We analyzed in detail how to strengthen the defense.
We also discussed economic issues, jobs, and social security in detail.
I also held an offsite meeting of the Staff. Constant attention to the front. Reports from the commanders of Khortytsia, Tavria, and the Commander-in-Chief. Special reports from the heads of the Main Intelligence Directorate and the Security Service. Details will follow later. Special attention is paid to our grain corridor and security in the Black Sea.
The world knows the fundamental role of our maritime grain exports for food security. In general, security in the Black Sea, the effectiveness of international law on navigation is a globally important security factor. All the maritime countries of the world see now what could threaten their ports and their water areas if Russia gets away with blocking navigation in the Black Sea.
Let me give you just one example. Currently, out of the 3 ports that have been agreed upon as part of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the Pivdennyi port is actually blocked. More than 1.5 million tons of agricultural products have been accumulated in Pivdennyi alone. And this grain is expected by at least ten countries, including Türkiye, Egypt, Bangladesh and China. Obviously, the less food is supplied to these countries, to these regions, the higher the food prices are, the more people in these countries lose from their family budgets.
That is, the blockade of one port in Ukraine creates extremely severe risks for different nations. In particular, for those countries relations with which Russia is also trying to speculate on.
I thank everyone in the world who helps us increase the security space in the Black Sea, who puts pressure on Russia to unblock food supplies.
Today in Odesa, I also held a meeting on the development of our port infrastructure.
And one more thing.
We are working to make the second half of this week meaningful for our relations with partners. Our international team is doing everything to ensure that this week ends with the news Ukraine needs.
And now I thank the United States of America, President Biden personally, both parties of Congress and every American – everyone who values freedom – for a new defense package for our warriors. Missiles for Patriots, rockets for HIMARS, artillery and other strongly needed weapons. Needed right now!
Glory to all our warriors who are now in combat for the sake of Ukraine, who are at combat posts, on combat missions. I thank everyone who works for our country!
Thank you, Odesa, for this day!
Glory to Ukraine!
The war for Ukraine is finally coming home for the Russians. The Financial Times published a deep dive today. Here’s an excerpt:
Elena Yurgeneva awoke at home on Tuesday in Rublyovka, a gated community for Moscow’s elite, to a loud bang from a drone attack, shaking walls, and a big shift in client demand.
“A lot of people seem anxious and are asking about properties with a bunker or at least a basement,” said Yurgeneva, an estate agent who specialises in luxury property.
It is a sign of the times for Muscovites that one of the houses on Yurgeneva’s books has a 200 square metre ferroconcrete bunker, allowing its owners “to get through any unforeseen events safely and even quite comfortably”.
Tuesday’s drone strikes, among the largest in Moscow since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, have underlined how vulnerable the country has become to blowback from the war.
More than a year since the assault began, Russia is further away from a battlefield victory than ever and making plans to beef up Moscow’s air defences instead of triumphantly taking Kyiv as President Vladimir Putin had planned.
The mounting attacks deep inside Russian territory pale in comparison to Russia’s assaults on Ukrainian cities. But they have spooked even Moscow’s beau monde hitherto insulated from most of the war’s consequences, despite the prominent recruitment posters on Rublyovka.
Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said a defensive Kremlin had been forced to “act like this is routine”. “The goal is not to inflame the situation,” she said. “Nobody in the Kremlin wants the people to wake up.”
In Moscow, most locals continued to go about their business in the hours after Tuesday’s attack. “We haven’t heard anything, and the city appears unchanged today: restaurant terraces are open, and people are enjoying Aperol Spritz,” said one resident who lives three kilometres from a building on Leninsky Prospekt in southern Moscow where one of the drones crashed.
But Ukraine’s apparently growing capacity to strike deep within Russia has rattled nerves.
Last week, 52 per cent of respondents to a survey by Kremlin-friendly pollster FOM said their friends and family were “anxious” rather than “calm” — the highest result in January and the first shift since Russia wound down a mobilisation drive at the end of last year.
Tuesday’s attacks were the latest in a series of drone strikes, cross-border raids, and sabotage behind enemy lines that have increased in recent weeks ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for any of the attacks. But they appear targeted at sapping Russian morale and redirecting resources away from the frontline — moves that help Ukraine roll back Russia’s advances.
Much more at the link!
Here’s some analysis by the Center for New American Security’s (CNAS) Samuel Bendett on the same topic. First tweet from the actual thread with the remainder from the Thread Reader App.
1/ As the Russian government and its president try to downplay the significance of this drone attack on Moscow, a new realty is emerging where the drone mission success is measured by its ability to actually strike intended targets while the constant appearance of such UAVs over… https://t.co/G1w9rflG50
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) May 31, 2023
2/ In other words, the Russian government and many Telegram-based commentators are discussing adversarial drone presence overhead as something to be expected, without resorting to panic, and to worry only if such drone attacks cause significant – not minor – damage.3/ That’s not to say that there isn’t a concern – there is a lot of concern, but also a nearly fatalistic recognition that Ukrainian drone presence over Russia can become so commonplace as to cause concern only in specific cases where they cause significant destruction.4/ The May 30 attack is spurring a lot of debate about Russia’s air defense, EW and CUAS abilities in general, and around Moscow in particular. Many Telegram-based commentators are pointing out their “I told you so” arguments that Ukraine will start retaliating with UAVs starting… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…5/ This “acceptance” is a product of Ukraine’s sustained drone counter-attacks against Russia’s numerous targets. Some commentators are saying Russia is not ready psychologically, hinting that at some point the country must accept this new reality.6/ What’s to be expected? A lot of public activity, followed by an attempt to invest heavily in domestic CUAS technologies, and to purchase even more of those already on the market. In this case, Rostec emerges as one of the beneficiaries of this regality, given its CUAS/EW… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…7/ This may be matched by heavier legislative measures aimed at controlling drone activity in the country, while making exceptions for some drone manufacturers/testers over others. Again, some clear winners may be those companies closer to the Kremlin (i.e. Rostec).8/ The Russian government is currently pledging support for the domestic drone industry, aiming to build it into a powerful economic force. This is certainly an area to watch if drone attacks become more common across Russia the longer Moscow is staying in Ukraine.
Those who criticize UAV attacks in Moscow often fail to grasp one point. Russian elites are willing to sacrifice millions of voiceless and voteless NPCs to preserve their lifestyle. The more war comes knocking on their doorstep, the more they'll start reconsidering their choices
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) May 31, 2023
The Economist published an analysis of the effects of the war on Russians by RAND’s Dara Massicot. Unfortunately it is paywalled. So here’s the tweet thread version. First tweet from her thread with the rest from the Thread Reader App.
The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine. I explore this topic in my piece for @TheEconomist, linked in tweet below. /1 pic.twitter.com/K36UTsyG55
— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) May 31, 2023
In my newest piece for @TheEconomist I explore the Russian military’s looming twin crises of retention and veteran mental health problems. 2/
Dara Massicot believes that Russia faces twin personnel crises in its armed forcesIt will struggle to hold on to fighters and to treat traumatised veterans, says the American defence analysthttps://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/05/31/dara-massicot-believes-that-russia-faces-twin-personnel-crises-in-its-armed-forcesRussia’s wartime personnel policies mask the war’s impact on retention. Since September, *all* Russian forces (except PMCs, perhaps Rosgvardia) in Ukraine are serving in a compulsory status once mobilization began, according to decree. /3..Officers, professional enlisted, and mobilized have had their contracts extended indefinitely until presidential decree ends mobilization. /4
Currently, the only ways out of military service (apart from being killed in combat) are reaching mandatory retirement age, receiving a medical discharge, or imprisonment. Or refusals and desertions, which are also on the rise. /5
Soldiers are not rotated out regularly and do not always receive proper rest. They face prolonged exposure to combat stress and intensifying feelings of helplessness and anger at their situation. Anecdotes from the front suggest some want to resign when restrictions are lifted./6Not all soldiers will want to leave the military when they are able, of course. Some may want to remain in service. Some may need to stay due to the money or housing benefits for themselves and their dependents. /7Then there is the matter of PTSD. Just as there was “Afghan syndrome” and “Chechen Syndrome” to describe veterans with severe PTSD who struggled to adapt to civilian life, it is a matter of time before “Ukraine syndrome” emerges in Russia. Most soldiers are not home yet. /8Even now, Russia’s medical system is straining to care for those with physical and mental wounds. Russia doesn’t have enough veteran psychiatric care facilities. Some are discharged without care for severe PTSD or sent to other facilities with inadequate staffing or care. /9Like this facility, not designed to receive combat trauma, with little ability to care for physical or mental combat wounds. Some mothers come to care for their sons. Other soldiers buy alcohol off site and drink alone to sleep or numb themselves. /10
‘He survived war but not rehabilitation’ An employee at a rehab center describes caring for Russian soldiers returning from the front — MeduzaOriginal story by Anna Ryzhkova for Verstka. English-language version by Emily Laskin.https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/03/18/he-survived-war-but-not-rehabilitationThe 2020s are different from the 1990s, so veteran care may not be as shabby as before. The Russian government can spend more on veterans, Russian society is more stable than in the 1990s, and there is institutional knowledge about PTSD (a term they now use in Russia). /11Some Russian medical professionals estimate 20-25% of returning veterans will have PTSD, and 100,000 will need professional help. While soldiers are deployed the Kremlin set up a “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund” to create regional centers for veteran care. It’s very new /12But there are problems: the scale of the problem is different (97% of Ground Forces/Airborne units) are in Ukraine which makes it different from Afghanistan and Chechnya. Secondly, the environment in Russia criminalizes anything seen as “discrediting” the military. /13When veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya returned home, those with severe and untreated PTSD struggled with employment, family life, were more prone to criminal activity, and had health issues. The Russian population avoided them, making their isolation worse. /13I lived in Russia during the second campaign in Chechnya. I saw a soldier of that war standing on the street once. He was a few years older than me, but I’ll never forgot how old his eyes looked. No Russians looked at him…. /14 washingtonpost.com/archive/politi…… yet, not long before that, I had seen an entire bus leap up at one time to help a WWII veteran stand. What I understood was that pride was only for some wars and some veterans, and shame was for others. /15Currently, Russia is grafting the iconography of WWII onto soldiers of this war, calling them ‘liberators’ , curating an image of these personnel as defenders. In some ways, this might differentiate veterans experiences when they return home from ‘Afghantsy’ or Chechnya vets/16I want to note that, Ukraine is also facing severe challenges with PTSD, not only in its armed forces but their civilian population too. They were invaded, and they urgently need support. /17
Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the way they mistreat their own personnel, will likely cause lasting problems with military retention and a ticking time bomb of veteran mental health disorders. For now these issues loom on the horizon (no one can resign), but the fuse is lit. /endMany thanks to @TheEconomist for asking me to write.
dsfafa
From Russian TV, more on the struggle to define what victory actually means. https://t.co/H8NUwRA1Uq
— The Lookout (@The_Lookout_N) May 31, 2023
There seems to be movement in France regarding the future of Ukraine:
If…Macron were to take the lead on the question of 🇺🇦's membership of NATO, he would not only transform his reputation in Central and Eastern Europe but also strengthen his case for European defence more credibly framed as a pillar of NATO
— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) May 31, 2023
Here’s more from The Guardian:
He said that in the meantime evidence against Russia and its leaders should be assembled.
Pressing his case for greater European defence spending and coordination, he said “our security and stability should not be delegated and left at the discretion of US voters”.
Referring back to his claim three years ago that Nato was in the throes of “brain death”, he said Putin’s invasion of Ukraine had been a wake-up call to which Nato had responded well. But he pointed out that some Nato members – without directly mentioning Turkey – were not imposing sanctions on Russia.
He acknowledged that in the past western Europe had not been sensitive to the requests of the east. “Some said you had missed an opportunity to stay quiet. I think we also lost an opportunity to listen to you. This time is over,” Macron said, to applause in the audience.
He was alluding to a remark in 2003 by former French president Jacques Chirac, who said eastern European nations which sided with the US and Britain in their decision to invade Iraq that year, opposed by some major western allies including France and Germany, had missed a “good opportunity to stay quiet”.
Referring to the division of Europe enforced in the east in the wake of the second world war, Macron said Europe must not allow eastern Europe to be kidnapped by Russia a second time, adding that the enforced estrangement had weakened the whole European family.
Macron predicted that the coming Nato summit in Vilnius in July would not be able to reach a consensus on Ukraine’s future membership of Nato, but said “we need to build something between security guarantees provided to Israel and full-fledged Nato membership. We need something tangible, clear and concrete. We need a path to membership”.
He added that Ukraine must be given sufficient means to stop further aggression and “we must be able to guarantee they are tangible and sustainable”, because it was protecting Europe.
Each country, he said, should have a right to pick its allies. Russia’s invasion had been a geopolitical failure that had aggravated mistrust all its neighbours. “There is no space in Europe any more for imperialistic delirium,” he said.
But he also made an appeal to central and eastern European countries not to see greater European defence cooperation, spending and partnerships as a way of reducing Nato’s influence, insisting a strong European pillar in Nato was of benefit to everyone.
The Biden administration has announced another tranche of security assistance to Ukraine:
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
May 31, 2023Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s thirty-ninth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. It includes key capabilities to support Ukraine’s air defenders as they bravely protect Ukraine’s soldiers, civilians, and critical infrastructure amid Russia’s continuing air strikes killing civilians across Ukraine. This security assistance package also contains artillery, anti-armor capabilities, and ammunition, including tens of millions of rounds of small arms ammunition, valued at up to $300 million to help Ukraine continue to defend its sovereign territory.
The capabilities in this package include:
• Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
• AIM-7 missiles for air defense;
• Avenger air defense systems;
• Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
• 105mm tank ammunition;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• Zuni aircraft rockets;
• Munitions for Unmanned Aerial Systems;
• AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Over 30 million rounds of small arms ammunition;
• Mine clearing equipment and systems;
• Demolition munitions for obstacle clearing;
• Night vision devices;
• Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment.
The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
At night, drones attacked the Afipsky Oil Refinery in the Krasnodar Territory. The attack took place around 4-3 am, after which a strong fire started at the site. One of the fuel oil distillation units caught fire. pic.twitter.com/EueQJRGUK2
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 31, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns 🥹❤️
Open thread!
japa21
Thanks again, Adam. In your opinion, were the drone attacks on Moscow by Ukraine or dissidents within Russia? If by Ukraine, aren’t they jeopardizing some of the Western aid?
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: It was Ukraine. MG Budanov of the GUR/Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence made it clear he was going to retaliate for the Russian bombardment.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks. I have no problem with it and cheer them on. Even if the damage is minimal, it shows the weakness of the Russians and always good to remind the aggressor that they can’t always sleep soundly.
Freemark
@Adam L Silverman: It’s no wonder the Russians and the Republicans are such good comrades. They have their extreme hypocrisy in common. Hearing the Russians whine about the Ukrainian ‘terrorist’ attacks…I truly can’t find the words to describe that level of bullshit.
Adam L Silverman
@Freemark: Consistency, hobgoblins, little minds…
Chetan Murthy
I’ve read elsewhere (perhaps it was in Denys Davydov’s video) that the drones that struck Moscow had barely if any explosives. That those that hit apartment buildings didn’t cause any damage except by kinetic energy, and that more damage was caused by air defense missile debris. In short, that this was a “demonstration”, not an actual strike. I wonder if this is accurate. For sure, I look forward to a swarm of a hundred drones attacking Rublyovka. Fucking oligarchs.
coin operated
Thank you Adam.
@Chetan Murthy:
I can believe that. If we’ve seen one thing out of Ukrainian Intelligence it’s their ability to psych Russians out.
Carlo Graziani
Any idea of where those drones are launching from, and what their real range limits are? Some notion of payload capacity would be gratefully accepted as well.
Gvg
After this war is over, Russia will be ripe for …some kind of internal violence it sounds like. Putin should be worried. Could be coups, revolutions or just rising criminal activity. I am reminded of many bits of history like Germany after wwi, France pre revolution and a lot of places in the great depression if trends continue.
A basement sounds like a good idea. Maybe even a secret one. Of course i am a soft American and we haven’t had that kind of danger for a long time.
Mike in NC
@Chetan Murthy: Consider the Doolittle Raid on Tokyo in April 1942. Not much physical damage resulted, but it freaked the hell out of many of the Japanese people as well as their government, who never saw it coming. Perhaps the Ukrainians understood the psychological effect.
Carlo Graziani
The guys who use this stuff will have some real war stories to tell…
japa21
@Carlo Graziani:
A lot of offensive gear.
Alison Rose
Couldn’t think of a better place to rain down hellfire on.
Nice video from Zelenskyy’s FB page of his visit to wounded soldiers in Odesa. I love seeing how present and personable he always is with them, taking time to listen to them, take photos, etc. It’s so genuine and you can see they feel the same about him. This is what a real leader looks like. (BTW to G&T or another Ukrainian speaker…around the 1:55 mark, what does the lady in blue say to him when she hugs him in the hallway and then is shaking his hand for a photo right after? She just seems a bit overcome and I’m curious (aka nosy).)
Thank you as always, Adam.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: Since I don’t know what a lot of the weapons and ammo and such are, I usually scroll somewhat quickly past these lists. At first when I scrolled by this portion up top, my eyes read it as “mice clearing equipment” and I was like…if they got mice in the trenches, isn’t that what all their cat friends are for???
Rocks
@Mike in NC: And led to the Japanese military finalizing their decision to launch the attack to capture Midway and destroy the Pacific fleet, which turned into a disaster of biblical proportions for them (four main fleet carriers sunk, three of them in an hour). It was the turning point in the Pacific War, though there was a horrific amount of misery and death for everyone before it was all over.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: The mice explode. They need special imported cats.
Anonymous At Work
So, Russian statistics, Sicilian methodology, imported from “Communist” China? At what point does “authoritarian statistics” become the fourth type of lie?
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
I know you won’t have a clear answer to this, but I just want to float the idea and see if it has any resonance. Was the “invasion” of Russia preparatory for Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory? I’ve been thinking about the logistics and troop morale a lot. The prior two Russian revolutions happened when front-line troops went “Nope!” and turned on their officers. Yelstin survived the coup d’etat and the Eastern Front collapsed (Tannenberg helped, obviously).
So, all that said, would an attack into Russian territory do much to break Russian morale and led to their military splintering? Or is that too quick and easy? TO say nothing of costing Ukraine a lot of ersatz allies, obviously.
Feel free to rip this to shreds, all. I’m trying it out loud rather than bang it around in my head.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: I don’t know and will have to think about it a bit.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: Obligatory quote from Dr. Strangelove:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/quotes/?item=qt0454447&ref_=ext_shr_lnk
Kong: Shoot, a fella’ could have a pretty good weekend in Vegas with all that stuff.
Librarian
@Adam L Silverman: There’s been speculation that the drones were a Russian false flag operation. I assume that you disagree with this.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: Throw ’em at the russians!! Exploding mice as war weapons sounds like a Monty Python sketch.
Anoniminous
@Anonymous At Work:
Ukraine has more important things to do than waste limited, thus precious, military equipment, supplies, and bodies invading Russia – like liberating Crimea. Just getting across the Perekop Isthmus into Crimea proper is enough of a task for the UAF.
Adam L Silverman
@Librarian: I do.
Another Scott
@Anoniminous: There was a tweet a few weeks/months ago showing a map with arrows looping around the Sea of Azov to cut off VVP’s forces and in the process liberate Crimea.
The tweeter seemed to be a fan of Stormin’ Norman and his “first we’re going to cut it off, and then we’re going to kill it” school of tactics.
Not that I think that is going to happen, but having VVP’s generals think that it might is probably a decent way to keep them even more off-balance.
FWIW.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Librarian: Anders Puck Nielsen had an “educational video” about how to recognize RU false-flag operations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jabKKr3pstU
The big one that jumped out to me, is that if it’s a false-flag operation, RU media are going to hype it. And in both the two drones over the Senate, and this drone attack on Rublyovka, the media really did downplay it. He has other points to make, but this was the big one for me.
Quote: “the way the mainstream media deal with bad news, is that they bury it in other stories”. A-yup.
I will confess that I thought the first one was a false-flag operation. But … I stand corrected. In the light of this new attack, and Anders’ arguments (which are quite convincing), I’ve conclued that they were genuine UA attacks.
cain
@Librarian:
I was thinking the same.w
That it could be a false flag operation. But Adam did. It think so.
Thank you Adam for this update and engaging with us in the comments.
Anonymous At Work
@Another Scott: More, I suspect, is avoiding Melitopol in a direct attack, taking Bednarsk and putting Kerch Bridge in range of HIMARS and Stormshadows. The break-through could avoid the strongest of Russia’s static defenses, no matter the actual quality. It would also signal to every Russian troop that they were about to get cut-off, again, and they needed to retreat with full speed.
Ukraine’s not going to win by grinding it out, or with amazing kill ratios. Ukraine wins when Russia retreats, either in rout or in admitted defeat. Making the Russian conscripts decide to turn on their officers or give up en masse are the best methods for that.
Anoniminous
@Another Scott:
God save us from Operational ignoranti with small scale maps.
NutmegAgain
Just checking the Guardian last thing, and it looks like the Russians are striking Kyiv again. Two children reported died, and also adult(s). Damn those Russians to some awful place.
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: Perhaps this might help?
So many things can go wrong with a bold, dashing strike thru Russian territory. Not least: having RU cut your supply lines.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: It’s odd, but I had the exact same line going through my head.
The Moar You Know
The Germans were fine with Adolf’s “territorial expansion” until Berlin got their first bombing raid. It did very little damage. But suddenly, the populace realized that Germany was not immune from the consequences of their actions. Did that help? Not really.
It took another six years after that, and the entire world getting dragged into the war, to end the Nazis. Hitler never faced a real threat from his own people (his officers were a different story) and had he not made the suicidal decision to attack Russia, he’d have been in charge of all of Europe (excluding the UK) for the rest of his life
There is a hard lesson here for those who think that Putin is somehow going to go away easy. Or be deposed by his own people.
Bill Arnold
@Anonymous At Work:
Mixed.
ROSSTAT is how we know (for sure) that the Russians lied by a factor of 3-4 about their COVID-19 mortality statistics; the mortality numbers were clean and showed excess deaths at a rate about 4 (later 3) X higher than the published COVID-19 mortality statistics. (A separate COVID-19 task force issued the COVID-19 statistics, presumably absurdly low so that wealthy Russians would not have to suffer the indignities of travel restrictions.)
There was a period (July-Sept) in mid 2021 where Russia was reporting daily death statistics with almost no variance[1]; they were clearly lying, and perhaps deliberately insulting statisticians.
[1] See the daily deaths chart Coronavirus in Russia: The Latest News (Moscow Times, piece was often updated.)
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Anders Puck Nielsen is an incredible source of both facts and analysis. I cannot recommend him highly enough. If he is representative of the Danish navy, I am not going to start a career as a pirate in the Baltic Sea!
Nielsen mentioned one other way to recognize a russian false flag operation- bad production values. The fsb doesn’t even try to make their fakes look realistic. This reminded me of the time the fsb purported to discover the “lair” of a team of Ukrainian assassins: the “lair” contained a bright red t-shirt with a prominant swastika, three copies of “The Sims” video game, and a green wig. (link) (Right- if I set out to do an assassination in Moscow, I’m going to wear a conspicuous swastika t-shirt and a green wig. No one would ever notice me!)
Since the production values of the drone attack on the elite apartment building were reasonable, that makes it likely that it is not a false flag by russia.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: Sweet Reason protect us from the Twitter strategists and their arrow-annotated maps.
(And no, that’s not a dig at Pfarrer, who at least attempts to describe current operations, not propose them…)
Sister Golden Bear
@Chetan Murthy:
Omitting explosives would also presumably extend the range of the drones due to the lesser weight.
dr. luba
@Alison Rose: You need a russian speaker to translate that. Much of Odesa is still russian-speaking.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: Kerch is in Storm Shadow range now—Zaporizhzhia to Kerch is 300 km as the crow flies, and those missiles have a 550 km range. And a concrete-penetrating 2-stage 450 kg warhead. The Crimean supports of the Kerch Bridge are as good as gone. The only remaining issue is timing.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: First, as the missile flies, there’s a lot of contested airspace and electronic interference. You don’t launch at front lines but behind them.
Second, never cut off all hope of retreat unless you are prepared to kill an army to the last man. The idea is to make every Russian between Mariupol and Dnieper and ZNPP think that a panicked flight over the isthmus is their only hope of survival. *Then* you take away their hope of retreat. You want RU to think of their trucks as gas-limited, their rifles and ammo as burdens, and their comrades as competitors in the race to safety.
That’s the operation I’d draw up. When where and how to launch teh first strikes and maintain supply lines and tackle Melitopol by using but not abandoning the insurgency there, that’s the question. Russia famously egged the Polish insurgency on during its march to Moscow, only to “pause” and let the Nazis kill the Poles first.
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work: Heh, I read your comment and thought “UA should air-drop packages of civilian clothes and food, the better to aid RU mobiks’ retreat”. Not really, just …. y’know, it’s what your comment evoked!
Alison Rose
@dr. luba: Ahh okay, thanks. I’m not always good at discerning the two, especially in a quick and slightly muted clip like that.
Geminid
@Mike in NC: I read that the Doolittle Raid influenced Japan’s decision to launch their disastrous strike on Midway. They felt impelled to create a strong outpost there that would plug the gap that the Hornet(?) sailed through.
Carlo Graziani
@Anonymous At Work: A 550 km range gives a lot of margin for a concentrated, multi-vector attack on the bridge designed to overwhelm defenses.
As to panicking the Russians: I have no doubt whatever that the UA has studied the Kharkhiv campaign very closely to abstract the factors that allowed them to get the Russians to run away. But those were rather special circumstances—the Russians had declared Kharkhiv an “economy of force” theatre, having concluded that there was little risk of action there, so that they left it largely under-garrisoned, allowing the UA to use a diversion of the forces engaged around Kherson to exploit there. It seems doubtful that a similar effect can be accomplished now barring a major breakthrough and exploitation (this is why I still like Bakhmut as the schwerpunkt—a breakthrough there leads into far less-developed defensive lines than elsewhere).
The other consideration is that the UA needs to choose (has certainly chosen by now) between clearing the Southern theatre and clearing the Donbas. They almost certainly don’t have the resources to do both. Either has a valid rationale. As a punter (and not as a general who takes real risks) I’d bet a larger stake on clearing the Donbas as having the more attractive combination of (a) achievability, and (b) correct sequencing—in that clearing the Donbas would make the Russian defense of the coast extremely difficult, whereas taking the coast would leave the Russian position in the Donbas essentially unchanged. This is the other reason that I like Bakhmut for a schwerpunkt.
But we’ll find out soon enough. Full moon is June 5, after which the opportunities for night ops start becoming real around June 12 (5 hours of full dark, 37% illumination moonrise at about 0130). If the UA decides to exploit an advantage in night vision gear for a breakthrough event, wherever that should happen, that’s when shit should start getting real, in my opinion.
Anonymous At Work
@Chetan Murthy: “Treasure Maps to vodka storage sites” might work better, but anything to separate the mobiks from officers. Going through/over mobiks wastes time, ammo and gasoline required to eliminate the professional soldiers left in RU and their officer corps. So, remove the mobiks as possible.
Chetan Murthy
@Anonymous At Work:
I wonder how big a parachute it takes to air-drop a “handle” of vodka (plastic bottle, for sure)
ETA: surely a drone could do the job. The only problem is that UA has outlawed alcohol during hostilities. Which, for UA’s sake, I support.
Anonymous At Work
@Carlo Graziani: I take your points, but I prefer taking the coast to free the Dnieper for crossings and shorten the front lines for UA forces. Keep the RU forces near Bakhmut being ground down and force to attack and living in fear of the sharp sudden thrust.
Putin’s monomaniacal focus on historical Russian territory would create a second concentration point in Crimea and defending the Isthmus, arguably some of the worst ground to defend in static fashion. I’d also use Stormshadows and HIMARS to “say hiya neighbors” to the Black Sea fleet.
Finally, it would free and restore Bednarsk and Melitopol to Ukrainian control, giving them better recruitment. Joyous celebrations of freeing towns, especially the soldier greeting his mother after liberating her village, would be a major boost for the time ahead.
All that said, taking Donbas back would remove the Russian population and either hamper Russian defenses or send a wave of ethnic Russian refugees into Russia proper. The coastal routes to keep the Dnieper marginally closed and ZNPP locked down would become increasingly untenable. And I think that RU are hurting for artillery rounds, of which they should have a large portion near the Bakhmut front lines.
However, my primary worry is that the offensive would create a pocket that a few ten thousand dead Russian could close up and trap UA forces.
Whatever we are thinking has been thought and discussed and debated. Hence my “attack Russian territory” idea of trying to surprise RU forces. Sever the rail-lines into Lushank region and force everything to detour into Rostov-on-Don to create a worse bottleneck.
Enough armchair generalizing tonight. We’ll have to see. I think we’ll see something before June 12th, since I’d want to hit them at night when they are least alert and THEN let the UA advantage in night vision extend the success. Make the RU jumpy, jittery and sleep-dep’ed sooner/longer.
Jinchi
@Chetan Murthy: I assume you mean alcohol is banned while on duty or when they’re at the frontlines.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: According to the ASR-Pioneer company, “The U.S. Army G-11 Cargo Assembly can deliver from 2,270 to 40,000 pounds (989 to 17,420 kg”. A handle of vodka is estimated at about 6lb (I think glass bottles are standard). Suppose conservatively that one gives up 25% of the payload to padding. That leaves 30,000 pounds, which is 5,000 handles per drop for the lucky mobiks.
Chetan Murthy
@Jinchi: i had read that under martial law many Ukrainian cities had banned the sale of alcohol. But Just now I Googled, and it seems those restrictions are getting relaxed in some places. If the vodka is available, I cannot see a better use than to drop handles of it on manned Russian trench fortifications.
Chetan Murthy
@Carlo Graziani: haha, but the problem is if you drop it in large increments like that, then officers can control the distribution. Whereas, if UA use drones to drop it all over the front line it’s got a better chance of getting to the soldiers who really need it.
But this is all joking, I’m sure there’s no way Ukraine would do that. Too much danger of some of the vodka getting detoured and consumed by their own troops.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy: Eh, whatevs. The Royal Navy used to serve astounding daily quantities of rum to seamen in the form of grog, and their combat efficiency never suffered much from the practice.
Captain C
@Mike in NC: IIRC the Doolittle Raid played a part in Japan’s decision to attack Midway, as they felt they needed a wider defensive perimeter in the Pacific
ETA:
@Rocks:
I see you beat me to it.
Mallard Filmore
@Anonymous At Work:
That might be the assignment of the Russian rebel units. It would keep Ukraine’s allies from yelling FOUL.
For the UA night vision, would the UA want to start the fight with a full moon, or no moon?
YY_Sima Qian
Brynn Tannehill has a good Twitter thread on the challenges & opportunities for the Ukrainians in breaching Russian prepared defenses in the coming offensive. However, keep In mind that she was a flier, so this may be outside of her domain expertise.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Anonymous At Work:
I don’t think the Russians have constructed prepared defenses along the border w/ the Kharkiv region. Not sure the Russian Army has enough reserves (what they do have may be poorly positioned) to counter a thrust in that direction. Outflank the defensive lines and collapse the Russian position in Luhansk. Or feint there & cause the Russians to panic & pull reserves from elsewhere along the line.
An unknown is whether such an offensive into Russia would turn Russian sentiments from mostly apathetic to staunchly pro-war (& help Putin in mobilization). One can also be sure that Putin will be waving the nuke card like crazy. Probably reason enough for DC & Brussels to veto such a move using western equipment.
Traveller
@YY_Sima Qian: There are probably a number or roads to Luhansk, to include Carlos’s, that being starting out of Bakhmut and ideal for his reasons given…The problem I see is, once you’ve won Luhansk, what do you do with it?
Luhansk is a substantial city with a population of 397,000 people, most of whom are arguably strongly pro-Russian. Like the dog that finally catches the car he chases every day…what happens when he catches it???
I simply have not seen this question explored or analyzed anywhere…though I am certain the Ukrainian General Staff have some thoughts on this…Can Ukraine subdue the city, can they manage it, can they provision the civilian population?
I grant that taking Luhansk would be a great propaganda victory….but if they capture the city and can’t manage it well, this could be a real propaganda loss also that could resonate to all un-liberated territories. This would be the ultimate loss.
There may be good answers to these worries…but until I hear and can evaluate them, I will still more support a southern offensive, though I like best taking Bednarski even for all the defenses already put in place.
Chetan Murthy
@Traveller: I saw an interesting snippet of an interview with some Russian propagandist or muckety-muck, who said that Russia had pretty much exhausted the supply of military-age males in the LDNR — they were all either killed, wounded to the point of no longer being able to participate, or in the military. That makes me wonder if perhaps the population might not be so inimical to returning to Ukrainian control. And that assumes that the many residents of these regions who opposed Russia’s takeover have all fled (which one supposes isn’t complete true, since in some cases, they were too poor to do so). I’ve also read that the administration of these regions was pretty much indistinguishable from a mafia state, with rampant state-sanctioned criminality.
So maybe they might not actually oppose Ukrainian control.
Traveller
@Chetan Murthy: Good points all….I suppose the Ukrainian General Staff knows the situation in Lunhansk…and if you are correct then I would prefer North, secure it, then swing south to the Sea of Azov.
Thanks for pointing out that I may be wrong in my natural caution towards Luhansk…maybe oddly, but I appreciate being shown to maybe being wrong.
Of course, both of us have avoided the actual preferred course of action…(Fill up the Tank, we’re going to Moscow…lol) Best Wishes, Traveller
HeartlandLiberal
The monthly wage in rubles works out to be a grand total of $8,105.52 annual income. I presume that is for the average or median worker, not for the oligarchs. If they are included, the average wage for the proletariat is even LESS.
Another Scott
@HeartlandLiberal:
On a “purchasing power parity” basis, as of 2021, russia is less than half the US, and below Puerto Rico and The Bahamas.
It’s probably much worse than that now.
I remain a master strategist. – DarthPutinKGB
Cheers,
Scott.
Uncle Cosmo
(Polishes spectacles) Amateur Great War buff here.
A (if not the) major reason why (and where) Germany’s last great push against the Allied lines (Operation Michael, March 1918) stalled was consumables. Specifically, food and drink,
The British blockade of Germany had put the entire nation on short rations, and though the Reichsheer‘s frontline soldiers fared better than the civilians they were still half-starved when they rushed forward to crash through the Allied lines. Until they reached the supply dumps. Where they were to a man astonished at the bounty they found – not just foodstocks in massive quantities but alcohol. Entire formations ground to a halt while the guys in Feldgrau gorged themselves on gourmet** grub & drank themselves into stupors with bottle upon bottle of good*** French wine. Which gave the Limeys and poilus just enough time and space to slow the advance while the first raw but enthusiastic Yanks rushed up to plug the gaps at Belleau Wood, Château-Thierry, etc. Just sayin’.
** Ehhhh…more like gourmand. Hungry troops aren’t picky troops, after all…
*** Ehhhh…more like marginally potable. Thirsty troops ain’t picky either…
Carlo Graziani
@Uncle Cosmo: I have to say, I rather like the idea of air-delivering vodka to Russian troops. There really ought to be a special artillery munition for that purpose.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: The area around Kharkhiv does lead to that last rail line South from Belgorod to Starobilsk, and cutting that line would knock the Belgorod supply depot out of the war, which really would put the cat among the pigeons. But the road net around there isn’t very dense, and clearing Luhansk Oblast would still require breaking down organized resistance at points South.
So, not an impossible scenario, but if I’m betting my own money I’d say more likely for a diversionary feint (of the best sort: impossible for the Russians to ignore).
I like this spinning out of scenaria. It has value, beyond just being windy in BJ comments, because having worked through such possibilities may help us frame and understand what actually winds up happening when offensive ops begin.
Anonymous At Work
@YY_Sima Qian: Sorry I missed this “last night” (aka 2 am my time). The swing in sentiment is what I am going for but from “apathetic” to “anti-war”.
And I would agree that prepping the Russian insurgents with better basic gear, explosives, intel, and maybe vehicles would be in Ukraine’s best interest IF their attacks didn’t seem to be all hat and no cattle. I’d want my Moran’s Raiders to do better than the Morgan or the St. Albans raids did. So far, all they’ve done is moon Putin. When will they, in the words of Texas Governor Ann RIchards also, “Blow [him] a kiss” while they are at it?