THAT PHOTO!
Measured by national polls, TV attention and search interest, DeSantis's campaign launch didn't move the needle. https://t.co/BQP16fVNjM
— Philip Bump (@pbump) June 14, 2023
I’m not the only person who immediately thought ‘Minion presents alien overlord with fresh luncheon’. But the Washington Post has to take DeSantis seriously:
There are two primary outcomes that politicians desire when they announce their candidacies for a party’s presidential nomination.
The first is the formalization of their campaigns with the Federal Election Commission. There are legal boundaries to seeking the presidency, and filing paperwork with the FEC both demonstrates compliance with those boundaries and marks the point at which candidates can begin receiving money.
But that’s the boring stuff. The central desired outcome is to begin the campaign with a bang, ginning up attention and contributions that mark an initial surge toward the eventual nomination. Candidates choreograph their announcements precisely with the intent of maximizing the amount of attention they can generate and to begin gaining ground in their push toward election.
On that latter metric, the recently announced candidacy of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the Republican presidential nomination was not a success…
FiveThirtyEight compiles a running average of national support for the Republican candidates. On the day DeSantis announced, he trailed former president Donald Trump by 33 points. The week before his campaign launched, he was averaging 20.8 percent in the FiveThirtyEight average.
Now, he trails Trump by 32 points and sits at 21.6 percent in the polls. That does not qualify as a “surge.”…
Nor did it yield a big surge in media attention. On the day of DeSantis’s announcement, he was mentioned more frequently on Fox News than Trump, as he had been on the two preceding days. (The gray columns indicate how much more often Trump was mentioned than DeSantis on a given day.) But that was it. Since the day of the announcement, Trump has consistently been mentioned far more often…
The advent of Google has provided a different way to measure post-announcement interest: the number of searches for a candidate. Google provides that information on a scale from 0 to 100, where 100 represents the most interest seen over the given time period.
So, on the day of DeSantis’s announcement, search interest in him peaked. Now, it’s well below where it was in the week before he formally launched his campaign…
None of this means that DeSantis can’t eventually beat Trump, of course. The advent of last week’s indictment could reshape the contest significantly.
But Trump was outperforming DeSantis on all of these metrics even before the indictment was announced. If the indictment doesn’t derail Trump — as so many issues have failed to do in the past — it seems unlikely that DeSantis’s launch put him on a trajectory to surpass the front-runner…
Senior Team Desantis staffers:
“He always looks awkward and needs to get out and meet more people.”
“If his wife is a former TV reporter and she can’t teach him, who can?”
Had to coach him on “when to smile.”https://t.co/bl0XkKRcw7
— Ron Filipkowski (@RonFilipkowski) June 11, 2023
But that’s normie talk; DeSaster is absolutely, positively negatively chasing the Extremely Online Weirdo vote:
championing the principles of diversity, equity and inclusion in the worst and weirdest possible way by honoring a gigantic loser general of a gigantic loser army who only gigantic losers still even care about https://t.co/NIgltyuxXJ
— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachi) June 10, 2023
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) took aim at former President Trump’s Supreme Court picks, vowing to “do better” than his 2024 rival. DeSantis said his picks “will be along the lines of a Sam Alito and a Clarence Thomas.” https://t.co/OTTxiEyM8N
— The Hill (@thehill) June 12, 2023
Wait for it:
This is going to be a very hard issue for Biden to hit him on. If there's one group of people Americans love & respect, it's car dealers https://t.co/s0N42gpMFW
— chatham harrison is tending his garden (@chathamharrison) June 14, 2023
NotMax
Turns out “Wokety woke woke woke” doesn’t have much of a beat and you can’t dance to it.
//
Mel
It does appear that he’s about to unhinge his jaw and eat that baby.
Mel
@NotMax: Why am I now picturing that as a Lawrence Welk Show number, complete with accordians, beehived backup singers, and a balloon drop finale?
”And a-one, and a-two… “
gene108
@Mel:
I’m not the only one who sees the photo this way. Swallow the baby whole, like a snake, in one big bite.
Amir Khalid
I haz a mystified. With such piss-poor political strategy and human-interaction skills, how did Ron DeSantis get even this far?
Mel
@Amir Khalid: It’s utterly baffling.
Mel
@gene108: DeSanaconda?
Mel
@Amir Khalid: It’s the Ted Cruz conundrum all over again. They aren’t even capable of faking basic humanity, much less mustering any of the usual sociopathic smarm and charm routine, and yet…
Sister Golden Bear
I’m alternately between schadenfreude that DeSantis’ genocide against trans people hasn’t brought him much success in his presidential ambitions, and burning with the rage of 10,000 suns that his reign of terror was/is all for nothing.
@gene108:
I was picturing more like Alien, with the inner pharyngeal jaws about to extend out and drag the baby to its doom.
Amir Khalid
@Mel:
His “war on woke” is particularly baffling to me. As I understand, a solid majority of Americans reckon wokeness is good. Campaigning against it would seem like campaigning against Mom and apple pie.
Geminid
@Amir Khalid: DeSantis’s big win in Florida was a bright spot in a disappointing Republican midterm election. There was also a real thirst for a better candidate than Trump, among Republican and media elites.
I think DeSantis polled fairly well around New Years Day and that’s when he decided to jump in the race. DeSantis has kept screwing up ever since, though. Now the spotlight on the national stage has exposed his weaknesses, and his popularity in Florida is dropping also.
Mel
@Amir Khalid: He’s throwing soundbytes to the rabid, hypervocal crazy bigots to rev up their awfulness and to get media coverage.
A huge problem is, in my opinion, that while the majority of people in the U.S. oppose the MAGA hatred and bigotry, we are not being loud enough, visible enough, to outshout them and derail their media deluge. They are relying on dragging the ignorant, the naive, and the fearful into their nasty web of hatred and lies.
The enormous damage they are causing to people’s lives, to communities, to basic human connectivity and caring, is going to take decades, if not generations, to repair.
sukabi
@gene108: why not? that’s what he’s doing to the state…when he’s done with it, 15 flushes out into the ocean / gulf…
Tony Jay
RoDS – “What is this lifeform?”
STAFFER – “It’s a baby. Remember we talked about this at the intervention?
RoDS – “Bay-Bee… it is weapon?”
STAFFER – “It’s.. no… it’s a… look, people will be bringing you these. You have to know how to interact with them.”
RoDS – “Nourishment!” (unhinges primary jaw)
STAFFER – “NO! Shit on a… (shouts) get the Candidate some salt water and a pudding cup! Sir, listen to me. It’s not food. It’s a… a small person. People love these. You have to show that you love them too.”
RoDS – “It small. Where eggs go? Here?”
STAFFER – “You..? No, ‘love’ as in like, as in affection. You have to show affection to win votes.”
RoDS – (Nods sagely, pokes baby) “Small person vote me? Accede to demand? Affirm?”
STAFFER – “That’s not what I…”
RoDS – “Bond with jollity!” (Bends over baby’s face. Unleashes staccato ‘laugh simulation’.)
BABY – “WAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!”
STAFFER – “Oh Christ!”
RoDS – “Affirmation logged. Political connection established. Success?”
STAFFER – “……….”
RoDS – “Agreed. Bring more Bay-Bee!”
STAFFER – (under breath) “Better than Cruz my ass.” (louder) “You heard the Candidate! Who’s got a baby?”
sukabi
@Tony Jay: and scene!
are you the fly on that wall?
Tony Jay
@sukabi:
I took some time off work to volunteer for his campaign. All of the pudding cups now have little cameras on them.
I’m going to call the eventual tell-all docudrama “A Series of Unfortunate Campaign Events“
sukabi
@Tony Jay: lol
Betty Cracker
Whenever I read about an embarrassing DeSantis face-plant, I feel a sense of joy and relief because what he’s done in Florida is staggeringly awful, and I loathe him so deeply. But I also get that nagging feeling that my glee and celebration are premature, like when the terrorized townspeople in a horror movie are congratulating each other for surviving the rampage as movie viewers scream, “No, dummies, he’s sneaking up behind you with a butcher knife!”
I won’t relax until he’s politically staked through the heart, shot with a silver bullet, doused in holy water, dismembered, burned and the ashes buried at the crossroads of I-75 and I-10.
PS: The bill DeSantis signed to ensure Florida car dealerships still get to rip citizens off has a carve-out for exploding carmaker Elon Musk. As a prominent DeSantis supporter, it’s still okay for Musk to sell ‘splody cars directly to Floridians
@Tony Jay: Bravo!
Tony Jay
@Betty Cracker:
You really get the feeling with RoDS that he’s only capable of bringing the hurt down on targeted groups through the misuse of Gubernatorial powers, which strokes the MAGOP Base in Florida, which wins him elections there. But when it comes to actually making MAGOPs want to vote for him, personally, when he’s in a fight against other Rightyshitees and they’re all barking from the same Gospel of Hate… he ain’t got much of an arsenal to draw on.
His milquetoast pokes at Trump aren’t going to break any barriers, especially if Christie manages to make the cut and is allowed on stage to verbally dump failure-sauce over Trump’s head. That’ll be entertainment, bloody, brutal, GOPitorial combat that the cameras won’t be able to look away from.
In that environment RoDS can’t shine. He’s the kind of cold, lifeless fish who couldn’t entertain a room full of actual real voters if he was spotted a dozen blue pills and a box of Real Girls.
Baud
He really does need to do something about that mouth.
piratedan
is waiting for the next bill to escape the FLA lege, making it illegal for Dems to hold office and also not allowing them to leave the state. Gotta have “someone” left to abuse in order to please the colleseum attendees….
WereBear
@Tony Jay: thanks for that, it was great!
Chris Johnson
Gilbert Gottfried, but as a bad person…
Tony Jay
@WereBear:
I’d rather point and laugh at your political scene than be in the same country as ours.
Tony Jay
@Chris Johnson:
I thought that was French Stewart?
ETA – SNL need to give him a call. His RoDS impression would be a delight.
lowtechcyclist
I’m just here to say I’m bummed that I missed the discussion involving Cantor’s diagonalization proof a couple threads back!
Some are mathematicians, some are carpenters’ wives…
Geminid
@Amir Khalid: DeSantis’s centering of social issues is a primary strategy. At least, reporting for Axios Is that his team believes there are a lot of very conservative voters that SeSantis can swing away from Trump. So he’s trying to run to Trump’s right, and pounding social issue seems like the best way to do that. It may not be a good general election strategy, but DeSantis has to beat Trump first.
A better strategy might be to run over Trump rather run to his right. Punch the bully in the nose, so to speak, and keep punching. That would win DeSantis respect among some Independents. One problem here may be the DeSantis is himself a bully. a small town bully afraid of the big city bully.
Another problem with this approach is that DeSantis needs to beat Trump without alienating Trump’s voters. They are a very vindictive bunch, and DeSantis can’t win in November if they stay home.
bjacques
Caption: DeSantis DESTROYS opponent in wokeness debate!
On the army base, could we compromise and rename it Ft. Fragg, from “Dopin’ Dan”?
Rebel’s Dad
Neckbearded minion: “Your weekly sacrifice, milord…”
De Ssssssantisssss: “Issss it your firsssstborn?”
“Ye-yes, milor-…”
“SSSSSSSSILENSSSSE! You dare to lie to me? I ssssseeee your wife with two older children in the audiensssse!”
*DeSantosaur grows 10 feet taller and swallows neckbeard with baby in one gulp
ETtheLibrarian
There was a real interesting Slate piece about the GOP and car dealers.
And then there’s
And
And directly tied EVs and direct to consumer so I think it does make sense in a GOP sort of way
Chris Johnson
@Tony Jay: Alternately, ‘they couldn’t get the real Gilbert Gottfried, because he’s dead’ (too soon?)
Old Dan and Little Ann
@lowtechcyclist: It’s never too early for some Dylan.
hueyplong
@Betty Cracker: Aren’t you taking a chance, burying the ashes in Florida
It’s sloppiness like that that has put you in your present situation.
Frankensteinbeck
Also important in this story: Trump may be winning, but he’s got about 50% of the primary voters, even with only one opponent who has better than “I think I’ve heard of him…” national name recognition. Definitely not an unbeatable monolith who owns the party.
@Amir Khalid:
He’s a sadistic asshole who is running to the right of Trump and focusing on bigotry issues. He has a proven record of punching down on minorities harder than anyone else. The Republican primary voters adore that. He was doing great until Trump started punching him and DeSantis’s only response was “Thank you, sir, may I have another?” It totally spoils the ‘meanest bully on the block’ appeal.
Tony Jay
@Chris Johnson:
This is Ron DeSantis’ quest to overtake Donald Trump in the race to lose to Joe Biden in November 2024 we’re talking about. A dead comedian sounds about right for that analogy.
Princess
The car dealers will still all vote for Trump.
No one is going to out-Trump Trump. Their only hope for a different nominee is to go after him and attack him. Sure, his base will stay home but you’ll get some independents and very serious centrists — and the media — if you do it right and are relentless. So far as I can see, Christie is the only one with the slightest chance.
Rebel’s Dad
@hueyplong: DeSantis is the political equivalent of South of the Border, so that seems a fitting place for his ashes.
Ascap_scab
GovRonDeSantis signs car dealership protection bill banning most direct-to-consumer auto sales
Hahahaha, yeah. That’s what E-loon gets for tanking his Twitterverse launch.
Petty vindictive asswipe.
different-church-lady
@Amir Khalid: Florida.
Baud
@Ascap_scab:
Read ahead. Carve out for Musk.
different-church-lady
@Baud: Shutting it would be a start.
SFAW
@Tony Jay:
Bless you, child, for providing me with excellent laugh-type response.
Tony Jay
@SFAW:
I see my role as facilitating a bringing together of soul-draining icons of mendacity with the cleansing power of dismissive mockery. 8-)
SFAW
@Betty Cracker:
Co-sign on your first two paragraphs.
Because I was (and continue to be) a curmudgeonly asshole, I remember the 2016 campaign, and being annoyed-as-shit that numerous people here were talking/salivating about the coming Hillary administration, up-to-and-including Election Day.
Until DeathSantis is officially (so to speak) consigned to the Port-A-Potty* of history, I ain’t getting my hopes up that he’ll go away any time soon.
But then again, some here consider me an Eeyore, so I’m almost certainly wrong and should be ignored. Again/still.
* Tony Jay: do they have these in Old Blighty? “Port-A-Loo” seems like a name for a cheap wine or something.
SFAW
@Tony Jay:
Ah don’t know what that all means, hoss, but you shore talk purty.
Tony Jay
@SFAW:
Sounds like you’re getting in character to enter the race to unseat Cruz?
Count me in, Candidate!
JML
I’m always amazed that political journalists still just accept at face value that a GOP presidential candidate can tack hard to the right and embrace the extremists to win the endorsement and then pretend that never happened in the general as a functional political strategy. (Of course it helps that the media will also pretend that when the GOP frames themselves in nicer language without changing any of their policies that they’re actually tacking to the middle…)
Tony Jay
@SFAW:
Oh, yeah. Concerts and Festivals couldn’t function without them. Great place for complete strangers to take drugs, defecate, throw up and fornicate – often at the same time.
SFAW
@Tony Jay:
Interesting idea, hadn’t considered it. Hmmm.
But seeing as how I’d have to move from MA to TX, and that I probably couldn’t survive a debate with him*, I’ll probably have to take a pass.
* Because I’d either be puking my guts out from being around him, or because I’d strangle him and then get shot by Texas Rangers. And although many Americans would be grateful for the latter option, I wouldn’t get to enjoy the aftermath.
SFAW
@Tony Jay:
Well, that certainly explains how you barstids took over three-quarters of the world. Or something.
Tony Jay
@SFAW:
I dunno, this is Cruz we’re talking about. Strangle him just right and those Texas Rangers might raise you on their shoulders and parade you around Austin.
Hell, his kids would probably start calling you Nice Unkie SFAW.
Yup. Multi-tasking!
SFAW
@Tony Jay:
You ARE one sweet-talking sumbitch. Almost had me convinced. Almost.
Ken
@Betty Cracker: Oh, of course. So the law for now has absolutely no effect.
I also confidently predict that if other manufacturers start direct-to-consumer sales, their lawyers will find some way around it — say, buying the vehicle in Georgia, after which the company delivers it to you in Florida. Georgia will appreciate the extra sales tax income, I’m sure.
Wilson Heath
@gene108: Okay, I could see that. But I was thinking he was yelling at the guy “How am I supposed to eat that without tartar sauce?!”
Frankensteinbeck
@JML:
If you think of politics solely as a game, then of course Republicans don’t mean the shit they tell their primary voters. They’re just waiting for that moment to rise and become presidential. Why, all that overturning Roe vs Wade is just to con the rubes into voting for them! They would never do it.
WaterGirl
Oh my god, the photo in that first tweet. That baby is going to have nightmares and possibly night terrors for years without realizing that the terrible huge mouth that is coming to destroy him belongs to DeSantis.
Man, DeSantis really needs a firmware upgrade!
SFAW
@WaterGirl:
We can only hope. Because that worked so well for Mittens.
Chris
Republican voters don’t want Diet Trump. Republican voters don’t want Trump 2.0. Republican voters don’t want Trump Who Can Chew With His Mouth Closed. Republican voters just want Trump. DeSantis won’t make it for a whole host of reasons, but neither will anyone but Trump, until Trump is out of the picture for real and they’re forced to look elsewhere.
Juju
Why is he screaming at that baby?
Daoud bin Daoud
@Tony Jay: by Baphomet’s balls, sir, your writing is a marvel!
Spirula
@Amir Khalid: Gerrymandering as a rep. His first Gov term he only won by ~37K votes running against a black democrat. The second term he won big but against (former Repub.) Crist (FFS!)
Tony Jay
@Daoud bin Daoud:
Thank RoDS. He’s a frigging inspiration!
BeuceFromOhio
@Tony Jay: This is hilarious.
BeuceFromOhio
I can’t tell if this satire or not.
Miss Bianca
@Amir Khalid: That’s what I’m wondering: “How did this freaky-ass cross between an anaconda and a Westworld animatron get elected to anything higher than a water and sewer board commissioner, much less Governor?
@Tony Jay: OMFG, I am dying over here. How do you do it? How do you do it?!
Bill Arnold
@Sister Golden Bear:
Paul in KY
That’s the 1st time I have actually seen the ‘baby photo’ and he was definitely tamping down his natural reflex to eat the kid.
karen marie
@Amir Khalid: It sure is a mystery.
I want to know if repeatedly wiping his nose with his full hand and then smearing it on his clothes and touching people with that hand is a regular feature. Because that is revolting.
Paul in KY
@Amir Khalid: It is a corruption of ‘woke’ that he is running against. Also, he’s totally consumed by the primary campaign and the crazies he has to fire up.
Paul in KY
@Tony Jay: I have gotten high in many a fine portajohn. BTW, they are soooooooooo much better than your average one from 1975 or thereabouts.
Tony Jay
@BeuceFromOhio:
@Miss Bianca:
I live to serve. [;~>
Tony Jay
@Paul in KY:
Well, at least one thing’s improved since then.
Citizen Alan
The thread’s probably dead, but I feel like venting.
So anyway, I’ve talked about my RWNJ sister, but I never mentioned her husband. We have never once discussed politics, and I hope we never do, because my impression of him is that he’s a really good guy and a saint for putting up with my sister, and I’d hate to have all my good feelings about him ruined by a political discussion.
I mention it now just because he used to be in a family-run car dealership, which his father sold off when he retired. I have no idea how much they got for it, but my BIL’s share of the payout was enough to completely pay off my sister and BIL’s huge five BR house with a swimming pool and also pay for all three of their children to go to Mississippi State without taking out any student loans.
I elected not to mention any of that a few weeks back while my sister went on a crying jag about how I was “looking down” on her (I wasn’t) because I was going off to make $100k a year (I didn’t correct her to say it was more than that) while she struggled by for 30 years on $25k a year as a teacher in Mississippi. And as she sat their squalling, all I could think about was how inviting that swimming pool looked through the glass doors behind her.
Paul in KY
@Citizen Alan: Good luck on your new job! Hope you will be out of MS.
kalakal
@Mel:
You really don’t want to see the photo where he sheds his skin
Jim Vandewalker
Regarding the renaming of Ft Bragg, Grant tells this story about Bragg as a company commander at a frontier post where he also served as quartermaster. He submitted a requisition for supplies for his company, then, as quartermaster, declined to fill it. As company commander, he resubmitted the requisition, giving additional reasons for his requirements, but as the quartermaster, he denied the request again. Realizing that he was at a personal impasse, he referred the matter to the post commandant, who exclaimed, “My God, Mr. Bragg, you have quarreled with every officer in the army, and now you are quarreling with yourself!”
Grant said it was probably apocryphal.
VOR
@Mel: It’s negative partisanship. They aren’t voting FOR Cruz or DeSantis, they are voting AGAINST the strawman Cruz and DeSantis have built as an opponent.