Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

It’s the corruption, stupid.

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

He really is that stupid.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Reality always lies in wait for … Democrats.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 477: Russian Life Is Cheap

War for Ukraine Day 477: Russian Life Is Cheap

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

This is Balloon Juice Actual: Be advised that TaMara now has a solar tube (sky light) in her kitchen and is insufferably pleased with it!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Another Ramstein today was quite productive, we are getting even stronger – address by the President of Ukraine

15 June 2023 – 22:31

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

A report for today. First, we have significant international steps that strengthen our position in several areas at once.

The European Parliament has adopted a powerful resolution in support of our nation’s European and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. There is a concrete call to the leaders of the European Union to define a clear path for our country’s membership in the EU.

And on the issue of the Alliance, the European Parliament sets exactly the meaning of our Ukrainian contribution to Euro-Atlantic security, which envisages that Ukraine’s path to NATO and a political invitation to accession should be developed in the context of preparations for the Alliance Summit in Vilnius already. The time for integration and security certainty has obviously come, and I thank all members of the European Parliament and the President of the European Parliament, Mrs. Roberta Metsola, as well as Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk for the constant and effective work with the parliaments of our partner countries.

The second significant international step today is the bill registered in the United States on the confiscation and transfer to our country of the assets of the Russian state – a terrorist state – as reparations. I thank the U.S. Senators for the strong bipartisan support of this issue of justice for Ukraine and all victims of Russian terror.

In dictatorships like Russia’s, money is the highest value. And especially for those who serve the ruling regime or are actually the owners of state structures.

When the terrorist state and all Russian individuals whose collaboration with the Kremlin created the conditions for Russian aggression or who are a public cover for Russian corrupt officials lose their money, a very important goal will be achieved – they will feel what loss is. They do not respect life and do not feel regret when human lives are lost. The Russian ruling class does not value people and is willing to waste human lives by the hundreds of thousands. But they do care about money – the money they have appropriated, by the way. They value their assets. They must lose them completely, and in favor of those who suffered from their aggression, from this terrorist war, in favor of our state, our people.

Today I continued to address the parliaments of our partner countries.

I called on the parliamentarians and people of Switzerland to continue to stand in unity and solidarity with us in the defense of common values and freedom. It is very important that all of us in Europe equally understand that it is only by force of arms that we can now protect the way of life that we all value so much, in all countries – from the Atlantic area to Ukraine, including Switzerland. It is our common task to defend freedom, international law and human life.

I also had phone calls with representatives of two countries – Belize and Costa Rica. We are building new partnerships for Ukraine to support the Peace Formula and our resolutions at the UN in defense of the UN Charter and international law in general. I discussed with Mr. President of Costa Rica and Mr. Prime Minister of Belize the possibility of organizing a meeting between Ukraine and Latin America. Together we can provide much more protection for the freedom and equality of nations in the modern world.

An important report was made today on the situation in Kherson region and in the south of the country, in our Dnipropetrovsk region, after the Russian act of terrorism at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. Disaster relief, humanitarian aid, drinking water supply and all other sensitive and important issues. Prime Minister Shmyhal, Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko, specialized Deputy Head of the Office Kuleba, and representatives of local authorities. Another report was on the situation in Kryvyi Rih and Odesa after the recent terrorist attacks.

And, of course, the frontline. I thank all our warriors, every unit, every combat brigade for today – for today’s battles.

I would like to mention six units in particular. The Khortytsia operational and strategic group of troops – paratroopers of our powerful 80th separate airborne assault brigade. The Tavria operational and strategic group of troops – warriors of our 23rd separate mechanized brigade, marines of the 35th and 37th separate brigades, warriors of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade of Zakarpattia and the 128th separate brigade of the territorial defense forces… Thank you all, guys, for your efficiency! For your strength, courage and for returning Ukrainian land to Ukraine and strengthening our Ukrainian will.

Glory to everyone who is now in combat, at combat posts and on combat missions! Glory to all who train our warriors! Who treats and rehabilitates our defenders after their injuries!

I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps. And by the way, another Ramstein today was quite productive. We are getting even stronger!

Glory to Ukraine!

There was another meeting of the Ramstein Contact Group today.

Maryinka:

Bilozerka, Kherson:

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

russian terrorists killed father Mykola Palagniuk. They shelled the church in Bilozerka, Kherson region, where he was at the time distributing humanitarian aid to the people who suffered from the explosion of the Kakhovka HPP, which was blown up by the russian troops. #russiaisaterroriststate

The Kakhovka dam:

The left bank of the Dnipro:

Bakhmut:

The Arabat Spit:

 

You may be asking yourself what air defense is doing? Here’s a joint statement by Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US:

 Press release

Joint statement by Denmark, the Netherlands, the UK, and the USA
A statement on delivering high priority air defence equipment to Ukraine.

From: Ministry of Defence and The Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP
Published 15 June 2023

The Denmark, the Netherlands, and the UK defence ministries and the United States Department of Defense today announced that they are partnering together to deliver high priority air defence equipment to Ukraine, addressing its most urgent air defence requirements as Russia continues its brazen missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities.

The initiative will deliver hundreds of short and medium range air defence missiles and associated systems required to protect Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure and further ensure the success of counter-offensive operations in coming months. Delivery of the equipment has already begun and should be complete within several weeks.

The initiative was announced ahead of the June 15, 2023 meeting of the U.S.-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels, Belgium. The UDCG brings together some 50 nations providing a variety of military support to Ukraine.

What air defense is doing is being resupplied.

Tbilisi, Georgia:

 

Rostov on Don, Russia:

The Russians demonstrate that Russian life is cheap.

Just as they continue to demonstrate that, for them, Ukrainian life is even cheaper.

I’m not quite sure why this is being reported as a confidential decree as I’ve seen reporting on it for several months, but The Financial Times is reporting that Putin has signed a confidential decree to nationalize Western companies in Russia.

Russia is to adopt powers to seize assets of “naughty” western companies and will make it harder for them to exit the country, as Vladimir Putin seeks ways to retaliate against US and European sanctions.

The Kremlin last week secretly ordered legislation to enable western assets to be appropriated at knockdown prices and is discussing even more draconian measures to fully nationalise groups, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

The insiders said Putin’s economic team wanted the threat of nationalisation to be part of a carrot-and-stick approach aimed at punishing western countries that seize Russian assets while rewarding those that play by the Kremlin’s rules.

The confidential Kremlin decree, seen by the Financial Times, would give the Russian state priority rights to buy any western asset for sale at a “significant discount” so they could later be sold at a profit.

Putin’s order to his cabinet, signed last week, also requires all private Russian buyers of western assets to be fully Russian-held or in a process to exclude all foreign shareholders, further complicating any exit procedure.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, told the FT that western investors and companies were “more than welcome” in Russia but noted others had stopped paying salaries entirely or simply decided to leave the country at a huge loss.

“If a company doesn’t fulfil its obligations, then, of course, it goes in the category of naughty companies,” Peskov said. “We say goodbye to those companies. And what we do with their assets after that is our business.”

People involved in western corporate exits from Russia say the Kremlin’s move opens up a “Pandora’s box” that will inevitably consolidate the state’s control over the economy.

“I think nationalisation is inevitable. It is only a matter of time,” said a senior businessman in the process of selling his assets in Russia. “The state will need money.”

The businessman, who said he planned to “slip through the window” before nationalisation begins, believes commodities groups would be hit hardest, as the Kremlin looks for more ways to tap export revenue for the budget. Technology companies would be less affected because they were “hard to run”, he added.

Putin’s circle has debated nationalising western companies since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year. But it has only used such powers in rare instances.

In deciding whether to expand such powers across thousands of western groups, the Kremlin will monitor what happens to the roughly €300bn ($324bn) of Russian central bank assets frozen in the west.

Russia’s economic officials are worried about losing the crucial role western businesses continue to play in many sectors of the country’s economy. The Kremlin is also eager to find new sources of income for the budget amid falling revenues from energy exports and skyrocketing military spending, which has driven the budget deficit up to $42bn this year.

Under the current criteria, first announced in December, western companies are required to give Russian buyers a discount of at least 50 per cent of the asset’s value, and make a “voluntary” contribution of between 5 and 10 per cent of the deal price to the budget.

More at the link!

The reference to moving forward based on what happens to frozen Russian assets, leads to the next piece of Financial Times reporting:

The top Republican on the US Senate foreign relations committee has introduced legislation authorising President Joe Biden to seize Russian sovereign assets and transfer them to Kyiv for the long-term reconstruction of Ukraine.

The move comes as both parties in Congress are increasing pressure on the Biden administration and its allies to find ways for Russian money to fund the billions of dollars that will be needed to rebuild Ukraine, rather than western taxpayers.

The bipartisan bill was filed on Thursday by Jim Risch, the Idaho Republican senator and the party’s top member of the foreign relations committee, along with Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat on the Senate judiciary committee.

It argues Russia “bears responsibility for the financial burden of the reconstruction of Ukraine” and gives the president the ability to “confiscate” frozen Russian sovereign assets in the US, including Russian central bank assets, so they can quickly be directed to Ukraine.

In addition, it calls on Biden to push for the establishment of a “common international compensation mechanism” with foreign partners as an additional way to funnel the seized Russian money to Kyiv.

The bill has attracted some bipartisan support in the House of Representatives, which would have to approve the measure for it to become law. Michael McCaul, the Republican chair of the House foreign affairs committee, and Marcy Kaptur, an Ohio Democrat who co-chairs the House Ukraine caucus, are backing the legislation in the lower chamber.

Since Russia launched its full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, western countries have seized about $300bn of Russian assets.

On Capitol Hill there is a growing push for the US and its allies to use that money as talks intensify about the funding mechanisms for Ukraine’s long-term reconstruction, including at a conference to be hosted by the UK later this month on rebuilding the war-torn country.

Having Russian money fund a big chunk of Ukraine’s reconstruction would limit the price tag for western allies at a time when there are growing fears of waning political appetite for huge additional economic aid to the country. The legislation would also clarify the US president’s legal authority to take such action, making it harder to challenge in court.

Lawrence Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, and Robert Zoellick, the former World Bank president, have backed the bill, along with Laurence Tribe, the veteran constitutional law professor at Harvard University, and Razom for Ukraine, a Ukrainian-American advocacy group.

However, there are doubts in the US and EU over the viability of transferring frozen Russian assets to Ukraine for its reconstruction, which has made it difficult for western allies to settle on a plan. The EU, however, is considering ways to transfer profits, including interest payments, from Russia’s seized sovereign assets to Ukraine.

The Biden administration is still weighing what it can do with Russian sovereign assets and has not taken a position on the kind of legislation proposed by Risch and Whitehouse.

At a congressional hearing this week, Treasury secretary Janet Yellen said it was “critical that any next steps we take be done via careful consultation with allies and partners” given that most of the frozen Russian sovereign assets were outside the US.

“We’re examining a number of options, including some that we may be able to take under existing authorities,” she added.

Much more at the link!

Jack Watling, the Senior Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), has published a strategic assessment regarding Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

Ukrainian forces are making gains, but the offensive is some way from its decisive phase; we must refrain from premature pronouncements of success or failure.

Ukrainian forces have launched their long-anticipated offensive in an attempt to break through Russian defence lines to liberate the occupied territories. Ukrainian troops have broken through initial fighting positions along a broad part of the front, but remain some distance from Russia’s main defence line. Kyiv has yet to commit the bulk of its forces as its lead elements try to set the conditions for a breakthrough.

The fighting so far has been tough. Russia’s initial fighting positions constituted fox holes and hand-dug trenches, but behind these were complex minefields of anti-tank and antipersonnel mines, covered by Russian UAVs and artillery. The main defence line, still 15–20 km from Ukrainian positions, has properly dug trenches and concrete-reinforced firing posts, tank obstacles, ground-laid cable to coordinate artillery strikes, and even more mines. Behind that are the reserve fighting positions of the third defence line.

The fighting will likely get tougher. As Ukrainian forces penetrate deeper into the defences, they will come into range of more Russian artillery firing posts. Moreover, their own artillery will be able to deliver fewer counterbattery missions, and the Ukrainian lines of advance will become more predictable, as they must follow the breaches identified in the minefields. As Ukrainian troops push forwards, they will also be covered by fewer air defences, and will likely come under greater attack by the Russian Aerospace Forces and aviation.

Given these threats, the Ukrainian military is currently trying to achieve three things. Firstly, there is an intense counterbattery duel being fought, with both sides trying to strike each other’s logistics, command and control, reconnaissance, and artillery systems. The Russians are hunting for Ukraine’s artillery with Lancet UAVs. The Ukrainians are utilising Storm Shadow and GMLRS to try to destroy Russian command and control and munitions stockpiles.

Secondly, the Ukrainians are trying to get the Russians to commit their reserves, moving troops from the third defence line to bolster sectors under pressure. Once these troops are pulled forwards, it will become easier to identify the weak points in the Russian lines, where a breakthrough will not be met by a new screen of repositioned forces.

Thirdly, the Ukrainian military is trying to put pressure across the front to advance through the first line of defences in as much breadth as possible. The reason for this is to increase the options for attacking the main defence line and to keep Russian forces uncertain as to where the main effort will be launched. Furthermore, with such a long front, stretching out Russian troops limits their ability to stack units in depth, pulling more forward.

At some point, the Ukrainians will have to decide where to commit their main assault units, and the offensive will enter its decisive phase. This decision must be conditions-based. It isn’t about adhering to some fixed timeline. When these units are committed, the offensive will either achieve a breakthrough or fail. Success is binary, not linear. The line is either broken or it is not, and Kyiv must shape the battlefield to maximise the probability of a breach.

The extent of a success will be determined by how much progress is made on the other side of the breach. If a breach can be achieved, then the critical question will be how many units Ukraine has in reserve to surge forward and exploit the success. If operations are currently methodical, once a breach in the line occurs, speed will be of the essence.

The uncertain variable in the current offensive is Russian morale. Russian units are currently fighting from prepared positions and their command-and-control infrastructure is mostly intact, though some key command posts have been struck. If Russian units can be forced to reposition, however, the poor training and discipline of Moscow’s forces could see the defence become uncoordinated and susceptible to collapse. Bringing about such conditions would require some significant actions by the Ukrainians to get the Russians moving, but it is possible under such conditions for the strength of the defence to crumble rapidly. Ukraine can endeavour to bring such a situation about, but it cannot be counted on.

For Ukraine’s international partners, the summer is likely to be deeply uncomfortable. Losses will mount and success will take time. It is vital, however, that there is no diminution in the strengthening of the training programmes allowing Ukraine to continue to generate combat units, or the mobilisation of defence industry to put supply to the Ukrainian military on a sustainable basis. However much territory is liberated in this offensive, the critical variable is convincing the Kremlin that even if its defeat comes in stages, it is coming.

There is no more at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

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@patron__dsns

Вперше побував у студії!🤓

♬ original sound – Levin

The caption machine translates as:

Visited the studio for the first time! 🤓

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

47Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    While Putin may want Tbilisi to be in russia, at present it is still in Georgia.

  4. 4.

    Maxim

    Thank you, Adam. I hope some photos from your trip will be forthcoming. Has your head been a shelf yet?

  5. 5.

    Another Scott

    VVP’s forces might be learning that having too much ammunition can be a very bad thing…

    Ukrainian forces reportedly used a remote mining system (Possibly AT2 fired by the German MARS-II MLRS or 155mm RAAM) to mine the area east of Staromlynivka, on the Velyka Novosilka axis.

    As seen here, a Russian transport carrying ammunition hit one of those mines. pic.twitter.com/PoIfak1akT

    — OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 14, 2023

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Thanks, Adam. Enjoy your visit with the kitties and duckies and little horsies.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Maxim: There will, eventually, be photos. No one has used my head for a headrest, but I have had three Danes lounging on me. When I got here Tuesday evening they all pounced on me at once when I sat down on the sofa. My Apple Watch asked if I’d fallen and I needed it to call for help. I also took some duck pics for Cole about forty minutes ago. He called on Wednesday demanding duck pics.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    The European Parliament adopted a resolution urging Ukraine to join NATO

    It also became known that Switzerland is going to sell 25 decommissioned Leopard tanks back to Germany, where they will be upgraded and sent to Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/hC3WpcYUX5

    — NEXTA (@nexta_tv) June 15, 2023

    Hmmm… Interesting.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  11. 11.

    HinTN

    @Adam L Silverman: Mrs H and I will arrive DEN next Wednesday. I’m guessing you will be back at sea level by then. Enjoy the Mile High City.

    Duck pix will be de rigueur.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    Note that the “sovereign assets” described in the Senate bill are the Russian Central Bank currency reserves, which the US controls about $38 Bn of. That’s kind of interesting, because at the moment, those assets are technically still on the RCB’s balance sheet, on the presumption that they are still Russian property, just totally illiquid. Forcing the RCB to wipe that value off their balance sheet could restrict their financial freedom of maneuver to a much greater degree than freezing those assets ever did.

  14. 14.

    Alison Rose

    Good on that activist in Georgia, and I hope they’re okay. I can’t speak to the validity of such protests, but it seemed like a bold and risky thing to do.

    I appreciate that Watling notes we should avoid premature assessments of how “well” the counteroffensive is going. It does seem like some in the media wanted something nice and neat and black and white that would make their reporting easier, and that a lot of non-reporters wanted the same and are irritated with nuance.

    This made me sniffle: a 90-year-old Ukrainian lady who had escaped her flooded home in Kherson worried that her cat and dog had died. But rescuers found them!

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  15. 15.

    wombat probabilty cloud

    @Adam L Silverman: You’ve already gone beyond the call of duty: Hope you have some relaxing time during the visit. And, you have no Danes-and-Ducks! alert apps on your watch? Thanks, as always.

  17. 17.

    Steve in the ATL

    @Adam L Silverman:

    I also took some duck pics for Cole about forty minutes ago. He called on Wednesday demanding duck pics.

    I hope to God that’s accurate and not a typo!

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    Watling’s assessment on the military challenges facing the counteroffensive seems sound at all engagement points along the front except one: Bakhmut.

    In Bakhmut itself, and in Bakhmut’s suburbs, the Russians are not entrenched. They are rather shifting to a more defensive stance from an offensive one, under continuous pressure. The troops in the city itself are newly-arrived MOD forces who are taking over from Wagner under enemy fire. They are relying on a destroyed urban landscape for cover, which is a substantially less challenging proposition to the UA than hitting layered defenses months in preparation.

    Behind Bakhmut, the Russian defensive fortifications are pretty much the weakest of the entire line, consisting of a single roadblock along the T-0504 highway to Popasna, “supported” by positions more than a mile away to the North and South. If the UA should reach that point in force, it will not take long to brush that roadblock out of the way. All this is not that surprising, since the Russians were using that route westwards as a supply line for their offensive ops at Bakhut as recently as early June.

    From Popasna, there’s a fine road net that leads to Luhansk, Severodonetsk, and Starobilsk, among other places. And from there, the Russian reserves in Luhansk would be invited to an encounter battle, rather than to the defensive effort from prepared positions that they would obviously prefer. There is no reason to believe that they would fare well in such an encounter.

    All this time, the Russians have apparently regarded Bakhmut as a kind of nationalistic grudge match, understanding its strategic offensive value to be nil. They do not appear to have thought through it’s strategic value to Ukraine, as a potential insertion point for the fabled unlubed dildo of consequences. One can read that lapse in their neglectful fortifications near Popasna.

    I’ve been wrong more than I’ve been right in anticipating the turns and twists of this war. But nonetheless, I’m keeping an eye on Bakhmut as the likely schwerpunkt. It’s the place where the greatest surprise of the war could come to pass.

  19. 19.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: I think a destroyed urban landscape is even more challenging than field fortifications. Every ruin is a potential strong point, mines/IEDs are more difficult to detect, UAVs can only provide limited situational awareness. Every urban battle against determined defenders (not sure if the new Russian Army troops will be, but the Wagner levies definitely would not have been) has been bloody & time consuming. I have not checked the terrain or infrastructure around Bakhmut to see if the urban area can be surrounded & bypassed.

  20. 20.

    Lyrebird

    I wonder what was going through Gen. Milley’s mind there as the camera showed him and Sec. Austin.

    Looked like heavy thoughts, and he has plenty of reason for them: Ukrainians facing more months of war for survival, BS artists at home making light of Criminal Former Guy’s crimes, fallout from those crimes.  I won’t get to know what he was thinking, of course!  But thanks Adam and thanks to commenters too for the updates and food for thought.

  21. 21.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: I don’t think that’s right. Bakhmut’s urban infrastructure has been largely levelled, and the “city” is basically a rubblescape now. It does not present the same tactical issues as a building-to-building, street-by-street fight in an inhabited zone, and it is far from the ideal trench-firing-position-and-minefield planned defensive position found elsewhere (on the second or third defensive layer). The troops that are there are throwing up improvised defenses from a line that was created haphazardly by an attack that ended only a few weeks ago, by an entirely different fighting force.

    Bakhmut a thin crust with little behind it, as opposed to a planned set of receptions on increasingly fortified and artillery-swept lines, which is what the UA faces everywhere else. Of course it’s not an easy fight. But it is a winnable one with some tantalizing possibilities behind it.

  22. 22.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Bakhmut a thin crust with little behind it

    if your thesis is true, it is not necessary to take Bakhmut, but only to encircle it and ensure that the Russian troops there are bottled up.  Then using the road network to the east of Bakhmut, the rest of your thesis would follow.

  23. 23.

    Sebastian

    Thank you as always, Adam. I hope you get some well needed rest with Danes’n’Ducks!

    @Carlo Graziani:

    I agree that Bakhmut will be a focus point for the counteroffensive, it’s a matter of national pride now and a loss for Russia would have severe and perhaps even fatal consequences for the Putin regime.

  24. 24.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: The road net favors an exit through Eastern Bakhmut, along the T-0504. Exits through the suburban battle sites require a cross-country slog—easy for tracked vehicles, not so much for wheeled logistical support.

  25. 25.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: [Not a military type, not at all, but] Take Berkhivka (which an encirclement would require) and then from Solvyansk it’s a straight shot down down the M03 to the T0504, no?

  26. 26.

    Sebastian

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Still trying to find that article about deliberately targeting and destroying Russian units. No luck so far.

    However, I see reports that the number of Russian POWs has skyrocketed. Also, it looks like Russia is conducting futile counteroffensives after Ukraine takes a settlement, losing a lot of troops and material in the effort.

  27. 27.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: Heh, I’m faking it too. Yes, what you suggest makes sense at the level that I read such matters. I think that Bakhmut would still need reducing to eliminate the threat, though.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Ukraine needs modern SHORAD now!

    Ukraine’s Armor Appears To Have A Russian Attack Helicopter Problem
    Russian Ka-52 attack helicopters’ presence at the front highlights the need for highly mobile and survivable short-range air defenses.

    I think I mentioned this in a comment last week. The US & other NATO militaries have neglected tactical SHORAD, that can accompany advancing mechanized columns, post-Cold War due to taking air dominance for granted (& largely relied upon their air forces for AD even during the Cold War). Cold War legacy SHORAD platforms are AAAs (such as the Gepards) or based on MANPADs mounted on vehicles (such as the Avengers). The newer SHORAD platforms on highly mobile chassis (such as the Stryker based M-SHORAD) are still based on MANPADs. All of them are easily outranged by modern helicopter launched ATGMs, especially in the flat terrain environment of eastern & southern Ukraine.

    What the Ukrainian Army really needs are the modern SA-15/Tor or the Cold War era SA-8 short range SAMs. Unfortunately, Ukraine never had many units of SA-15, & many SA-8s have already been lost. I don’t think the SA-15 were ever inducted into former Warsaw Pact militaries before the end of the Cold War, but many of them should still have SA-8s around. They should go to Ukraine ASAP!

  30. 30.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sebastian: If the Russian Army is dong that, then it is dumb. The idea should be of using the forward defensive line to slow down the Ukrainian attack, identify the strength & the direction of attack, incur as much losses as possible w/ indirect fire missions, then fall back to the main line of defense where the more decisive action will take place. AFAICT, the Ukrainian Army is still probing along forward line of defense, or the areas behind it where it has made more progress, it has not yet attempted to assault the Russian main lines of defense.

    Trying to recover forward positions means the Russian troops will have to assault across their own minefields. We have already seen Russian troops withdrawing from forward positions take loses through their minefields.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: Bakhmut has not been literally flattened. Still plenty of standing ruins that can require building to building close quarter combat, if these aerial photos & satellite images are anything to go by.

    Heh, I’m faking it too.

    All of us commenting outside of our domain expertise are faking it to one degree or another…

  32. 32.

    Sebastian

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Kos has a great article about this topic today. Here is an excerpt:

    Ukraine is pushing down from Velyka Novosilka, and has reportedly gotten as far south as Makarivka, just above that black pointer on the map above. Russia has decided that Staromaiors’ke, on the black pointer, is important. It is the only road up to Rivnopil, to its northwest, which sits on higher ground. If Staromaiors’ke falls, that Russian garrison up there is cut off and would have to either surrender or be eliminated.

    There’s tactical sense in that, if the goal is to hold Rivnopil. But …

    This is me screaming: Why would you defend open territory when you have perfectly good prepared defenses just a few kilometers south?

    Why on god’s green earth are they fighting up there? Ukraine’s push south has been stopped the last several days because—get this—Russia has sent multiple waves trying to retake Makarivka!

  35. 35.

    The Pale Scot

    @Sebastian:

    There’s a video of RUians coming out of the bush and gunning down guys that were pulling back from the first line. There’s another vid of a RU POW describing his actions shooting them. He said if he didn’t he would be joining them

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Sebastian: Thanks for the link. I have been reading Kos’ updates from time to time. I think what he describes is largely correct, but it is still just a single location on the long front. We should aways be careful extrapolating too much (for either side, in positive or negative direction) from single data points. We have seen plenty of instances where Russian commanders act idiotically, & we will see plenty of more. The cost incurred from each instance will add up.

    I do think Kos is wrong that none of the heavy mechanized unit have been committed. Losses of Leopards & Bradleys suggests that at least some heavy mechanized companies or battalions (if not whole brigades) have been committed. Also, while Kos is right that troops in MRAPs would be considered mounted or motorized infantry, & they should be riding the battlefield taxis to the front & then fight as light infantry, the footages I have seen does not suggest that this is how they have been used (at least in some sectors). We are seeing MRAPs advancing w/ MBTs & IFVs in columns, running into minefields. When the lead vehicle is hit by a mine, the following MRAPs are rushing forward, rather than disgorging infantry who advance on foot (as Kos suggests they should), & provide heavy machine gun fire support from further back.

  37. 37.

    Sebastian

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    He is definitely wrong about the lack of committed elite units. The 4th Mechanized is in play as are some elite infantry units as well.

  39. 39.

    Jay

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    MRAP’s hold infantry to cover the flanks,

    They arn’t there to deal with mine fields, they are there to deal with ATGM and RPG infantry,

    The column that Vatnick media keeps repeating, from different angle as if it’s new, of a different event, is really simple.

    Lead tank hit a mine, ( probably a scatter mine), lost a track. That stops the column, single lane track, lead vehicle stops, everybody stops. Vehicle spacing goes out the window, like a interstate pile up.

    The follow vehicles then got hit with Grad rockets, from prepositioned salvo 122mm systems.

    Everybody lived,

    All the vehicles were recovered, ( demonstrating that area is now under Ukrainian control), and a bunch will be back in the battle in a couple days.

  40. 40.

    The Pale Scot

    From KOS comments

    Maybe the whole problem is that the mil-bloggers back in Russia really are being allowed to run the war however they want, since the only thing that’s important in post-democratic Russia is ratings on Russian state TV.  The generals see that the mil-bloggers are unhappy, so they double down on whatever makes the mil-bloggers less unhappy.

    Jesus Fucking Christ on a Pogo Stick, the orcs have their own Fox network.

  41. 41.

    Jay

    anybody seen Delimkhanov?

    Kadarov’s “executioner”?

    Should I put up fliers in the neighborhood or are milk cartons more effective?

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Impressive video of the Ukrainian Army employing the Mine Clearing Line Charges (MICLIC) donated by the US, to breach minefields. Precisely what’s needed to clear the Russian minefields. I hope many of them have been donated by the US & others. The Russian Army had used such line charges in the brutal urban combat in Mariupol & Severodonetsk.

  44. 44.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Several of the announced PDA equipment lists have had a generic “infantry obstacle-clearing gear” bullet buried deep near the end of the list. Presumably, this sort of thing is what that bullet covers, among other things.

  46. 46.

    Torrey

    ​

    @Alison Rose: ​
     

    Good on that activist in Georgia, and I hope they’re okay. I can’t speak to the validity of such protests, but it seemed like a bold and risky thing to do.

    Definitely agree about the bold and risky part. The woman has courage. What struck me as interesting, and maybe a bit encouraging, was that the two security people who were trying to stop her seemed to be fairly restrained about it. The one closest to her looks like he taps her on the back to get her attention, but then stands back and lets her finish. He reaches forward again but then pulls back when addressed by the woman next to her. That’s where the recording ends.

  47. 47.

    lee

    Since the last time I checked Koch industries is still operating in Russia, I fully endorse Russia seizing their assets.

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