Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Be a traveling stable for those who can’t find room at the inn.

In after Baud. Damn.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

The jury literally has a bell they can ring to force Trump to show up on command. Greatest thing ever!

There are no moderate republicans – only extremists and cowards.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

if you can’t see it, then you are useless in the fight to stop it.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Republicans can’t even be trusted with their own money.

T R E 4 5 O N

Every one of the “Roberts Six” lied to get on the court.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

It could be worse. Vance could have said “post-menopausal sows.” Waiting for that audiotape to surface.

I am pretty sure Katy Tur wasn’t always such a bootlicking sycophant.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 486: Da Fuq They Doin Ova Der? Part II

War for Ukraine Day 486: Da Fuq They Doin Ova Der? Part II

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Nice quiet Saturday, huh?

We’ll get to the fun stuff after the jump.

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn’t matter who commands them – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

24 June 2023 – 20:10

Dear Ukrainians, all the people of the world, good health to you!

Today is a day when there definitely should be no silence. And we definitely need leadership.

Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.

We all remember how the head of Russia threatened the world in 2021. He had some ultimatums, he was trying to show a kind of strength…

The year 2022 showed that he confused – confused his illusions and the lies he was fed with strength. They in the Kremlin are capable of resorting to any terror, capable of resorting to any stupidity, but they cannot provide even one percent of the necessary control. And they are the real problem.

In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.

Now, it is very important that no one in the world remains silent because of being afraid of this Russian chaos. All the actions of the leaders now can be historic. Every word of journalists is worth its weight in gold. It is necessary to clearly name the source of the problem. And if someone in the world tries to ignore the situation, if someone in the world is under the illusion that the Kremlin is capable of regaining control… this only postpones the problem until the next breakthrough of chaos – even more dangerous.

We all know the solution.

First, the world should not be afraid. We know that only our unity protects us.

Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn’t matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe’s eastern flank depends only on our defense. And that is why every manifestation of support for our defense is support for your defense, everyone in the free world.

Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we’re enhancing our common defense. Real defense. This is what is needed. Now is the time to provide all the weapons necessary for defense.

Second, everything must be real. It’s time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia’s criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won’t be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia really supports this.

And the third… I will say it in Russian. The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow. He calls somewhere, and asks something… He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred – he himself who spreads it. And the longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you all will lose… all who are connected with Russia.

What will we, Ukrainians, do?

We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war will definitely be.

And what will you do?

The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.

And now I’m switching to my native language.

Thanks to our soldiers! Thanks to everyone who is now beating the occupiers! Thanks to the Air Force for protecting our skies!

Glory to Ukraine!

We will defeat everyone!

It’s all over. For now…

The charges against Prigozhin are cancelled. Supposedly guarantees were given regarding Wagner and its ability to continue. Prigozhin is supposedly headed to Minsk, but who knows how long that lasts if it happens at all. He’s got air bases in Libya, Latakia in Syria, Mali, and he completely controls the Central African Republic on behalf of Putin’s and Russia’s Africa strategy. And he’s got his own Ilyushins to transport his personnel, equipment, and material around. I’ve seen lots of speculation that Shoigu was to be arrested and charged as part of this deal, but that doesen’t seem to have happened.

What we actually watched was about 36 hours of a true, albeit quite limited, civil war, not a coup. A challenge was made for the rule of Russia. It was well planned, and appeared to be long planned, and Prigozhin’s forces appeared to be making progress towards Moscow. I expect that whatever it was that Putin told Lukashenko to say to Prigozhin will eventually leak out. And then we’ll have a better idea of what the carrots and sticks were that brought this to an end. The only part of this that isn’t surprising is that it ended with a negotiated settlement. All low intensity wars, especially when fought between first parties (combatants from the same state and society), end in negotiated settlements. I can count on one hand the low intensity conflicts that ended because one side cleanly defeated the other.

Initially I thought it might be something else. When Putin didn’t immediately make an appearance last night, one of the things I was curious about was whether Putin had become incapacitated or died and that it was being compartmentalized by Patrushev, Shoigu, Gerasimov, Peskov, and others in Moscow. Prigozhin’s actions would have made a lot of sense if he’d gotten wind of it and decided to move before someone could consolidate power. Putin, however, was not dead and the challenge had nothing to do with it.

My professional take is that this is not over. This morning Putin looked and sounded focused. He did NOT mention Prigozhin by name, which is a Putin tell for when he considers someone an enemy that is also a threat. He never refers to Navalny by name. By this afternoon something had changed. In between Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries embarrassed the Russian military, security services, and police forces. I’ve written repeatedly that Putin will be strong and in control and look strong and in control until he is not. Over the past 36 hours or so he has not looked strong and in control. Additionally, Prigozhin had a clear and well developed plan that he was able to put into effect. Moreover, a number of key senior Russian military leaders appeared to be sympathetic to Prigozhin.

That’s never a good sign!

Nor is the fact that the residents of Rostov on Don seemed to be supportive of Prigozhin.

And not to happy with the police:

Here’s Prigozhin’s official statement:

Full text:

Prigozhin says it’s over: “They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.”

Audio: t.me/concordgroup_o

Here’s Ukrainian officer Tatarigami’s take:

Here’s the full text of Tatarigami’s tweet:

My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation: The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications. From both external and internal perspectives, Putin’s image has weakened, reminiscent of the Japanese emperor during the Sengoku period. Similar to a symbolic figure, the emperor held nominal power while warring samurai clans vied for control over Japan. Though Putin still wields undeniable power, it is evident that he has lost control over the situation, resulting in a significant crack in his perceived ability to exert authority and manage internal affairs. Additionally, Putin had to rely on the intervention of a foreign leader (Belarus) to resolve the internal conflict. These events highlight the potential use of military force against Putin’s government as a means to coerce acceptance of terms, although the details of the arrangement between Prigozhin and Putin-Lukashenko remain undisclosed. If a replacement occurs within the top military command, it would only reinforce such behavior. Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome. The relatively swift movement of Wagner forces from Ukraine to Moscow within a span of less than a day, coupled with the chaotic attempts to destroy bridges and hastily dig ditches near Moscow, have laid bare the unpreparedness of the system to face a genuine threat. It has been intriguing to witness the involvement of various groups, including the Club of Angered Patriots led by Strelkov, the Rusich neo-Nazi military unit, and the Kadyrovites, aligning themselves with different factions within the conflict. This development reveals a landscape that hints at the potential for a future civil war, While the immediate repercussions of the current events will become apparent in the coming weeks, it is crucial to recognize that we are merely at the inception of something far more significant. The unfolding situation carries profound implications that extend beyond the present moment.

And they got the tank out of the circus, which is a sentence I never expected to write.

Siverskiy Donets-Donbas Canal:

Full text:

While Prigozhin was marching through Russia, soldiers of the 1st mechanized battalion🇺🇦 clashed with the 3rd battalion of the 🇷🇺57th Guards motorized rifle brigade, clearing the western bank of the Siverskiy Donets-Donbass canal.

The enemy battalion lost 50 wounded and over 30 killed and practically stopped existing.

This was reported by the commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Andriy Byletskiy.

Bakhmut:

That’s enough for tonight. We’ll see what tomorrow brings because despite everyone standing down today, it is unlikely that what was started by Prigozhin yesterday is over. Regardless of whether he’s the one to see things through to their end or not.

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Reader Interactions

95Comments

  1. 1.

    zhena gogolia

    I have discovered that I can actually listen to a Putin speech as long as I’m watching a video of a Ukrainian soldier eating massive amounts of popcorn while it’s playing.

  2. 2.

    Chetan Murthy

    I have no popcorn.  I have a wok, and have read that they’re excellent for popping popcorn.  Does anybody have any recommendations on “regular” (not microwave) popcorn brands?  I’d prefer high performance/price ratio, as I’m …. a cheap-ass bastard.

    I figure, if Adam’s right [which I pray he is] I need to have at least a couple days’ supply for …. *next time*.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    And now I’m switching to my native language.

    Heh. Nice dig. TBH I’m impressed Zelenskyy’s address tonight wasn’t just him laughing and saying “Those motherfuckers over there, amirite?”

    Yeah, I still barely understand what the hell went on/continues to go on. russia feels more and more like a house of cards and I wish someone would turn on the damn fan.

    Putin, however, was not dead

    Sometimes the Lord chooses to withhold the blessings we seek.

    2021: The russian army is 2nd in the world!
    2022: The russian army is 2nd in Ukraine!
    2023: The russian army is 2nd in russia!
    — Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) June 23, 2023

    Indeed.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    dmsilev

    The Post is reporting that US Intelligence had credible advance warning that something was likely to go down starting about two weeks ago.

    U.S. spy agencies picked up intelligence in mid-June indicating Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin was planning armed action against the Russian defense establishment — which he has long accused of bungling the war in Ukraine — and urgently informedthe White House and other governmentagencies so they were not caught off guard, several U.S. officials said Saturday.

    The exact nature and timing of Prigozhin’s plans werenot clear until shortly before his stunning takeover of a military command and tank run toward Moscow on Friday and Saturday, officials said. But “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” said one U.S. official, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. “So I think they were ready for it.”

    ‘ready for it’ seems to be ‘don’t panic, don’t act hastily’, which at least so far sounds like a good idea given the high-speed seesaw of the last couple of days.

  6. 6.

    Anoniminous

    Prigozhin has shown Putin’s regime lacks the necessary Monopoly of Force to remain viable. As Mao put it, “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun” and it is the State, if it is a State and not a Banana Republic, that has to control the gun.

  7. 7.

    OGLiberal

    This all happened a bit too fast for me to comprehend.  My thinking was a) this is all, relative, BS,  b) Putin and Prigo are buds, c) this was a message from Putin to certain military leaders that, “I’m the boss and I have my own army.”

    Are we certain that’s not what this was?  Outcome leads me to believe that it was something like that.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The bizarro world of feudal elite Russian politics gets more bizarre. Either Prigozhin’s days are numbered or Putin’s soon will be.

    I think the last 36 hrs seems more like a mutiny by a warlord than a civil war, no? Or are we calling it a civil war because it was well planned (well in advance) & executed? If it was a civil war, Prigozhin seems to have given up far too easily for not much at all.

    OTOH, The risk of a civil war in Russia, whatever happens to Prigozhin, just went up by an order of magnitude. This is why the CCP regime (as any self-respecting Leninist regime should) has insisted since the early 30: that the Party must command the gun & not the other way around, something most authoritarian regimes are unable to manage.

  9. 9.

    BeautifulPlumage

    Everything from the “attack on the Wagner base” to the videos from the military leaders in the same white-walled room, to the sudden reversal feels like Kabuki theater. Except the helicopters were shot down and crews died.

    And the exodus to Turkey, was that expected?

  10. 10.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian: ​
     
    Technically it was a mutiny: a revolt against constituted authority by soldiers or seamen, with or without armed resistance.

  11. 11.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @OGLiberal: Prigozhin called into question the justification for the invasion Ukraine, & Putin called the Wagner mutineers “traitors”. That can’t be walked back. Putin at least will have to take further actions to reward list his credibility & authority.

    That or Putin has lost touch w/ reality & cannot grasp how badly this munitions reflects on the credibility & authority of his regime.

  12. 12.

    patrick II

    I don’t know if anyone caught Xi’s speech last night regarding the Russian situation, but he did mention that Vladvostok is part of historical China. He is just waiting to pounce.​

  13. 13.

    Andrya

    @Anoniminous:  It seems to me that putin (from his morally depraved perspective) absolutely has to assassinate prigozhin.  Letting prigozhin go safe and free is an invitation to other russian military figures that they can safely implement a coup plan as long as they also have an escape plan- and as the Ukraine war continues to go badly, the temptation can only grow.  prigozhin had better look carefully to his underpants and what might be in his tea.

    The inverse of “if you strike at the king, you must kill him” is “if you are the king, and someone strikes at you, you cannot let them live”.

    I welcome thoughts/comments/correction on this.

  14. 14.

    sdhays

    At least 95% chance this irrelevant, but I read somewhere that Prigozhin and Lukashenko had a previous relationship (whatever that means – I’m assuming it doesn’t mean they’ve dated), and from the corners of my memory I recalled that Lukashenko originally wanted to be Putin (Yeltin’s successor) before Putin was elevated from the shadows. That’s why Belarus has that treaty about rejoining Russia that has never been consummated. After Putin emerged, Lukashenko decided it was better to be the Belarusian Putin rather than having an uncertain position within Putin’s Russia.

    Anyway, like I said, at least 95% chance this is irrelevant, but since we’re living in interesting times, wouldn’t it be interesting if Prigozhin had already gamed this out with Lukashenko and “phase II” has already been somewhat planned?

    On the other hand, perhaps it’s really all just about getting paid, in which case, wow…someone in Russia should have just paid Wagner’s bill on time.

  15. 15.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: What speech are you referring to? Chinese state media has been reporting on the developments w/in Russia, but very low keyed. It would be extremely surprising that anyone more than an MFA spokesperson would comment on the situation, or that commentary would go beyond this being “Russian internal affairs and hope for a speedy & peaceful resolution “.

  17. 17.

    Anoniminous

    @Andrya: ​
    I agree. Prigozhin has to have a Windows Update, a long step off a short helicopter ride, or a bullet in the head for Putin to regain credibility.

  19. 19.

    BeautifulPlumage

    I assume the threat of sabotage at the nuclear plant is still a factor.

    I’m also curious how much of the RU leadership actually was drunk on Friday eve.

  20. 20.

    Martin

    The rumor I read wasn’t that Shoigu would be arrested and charged, just that he’d be forced to resign. That was mixed in with a bunch of details that *did* happen, but maybe Prigozhin was just padding the rumors in his favor there.

    I’ve not seen anyone talk about what happens outside of Russia. What happens with those neighboring states like Kazakhstan. I’m not sure what benefits that alliance with Russia is offering these days. Seems pretty discounted.

  22. 22.

    Martin

    @Anoniminous: From the looks of it, the only thing that really stopped Prigozhin from reaching Moscow was a couple of backhoes. Russia is the glassiest of cannons right now.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Suzanne: It’s all microwave popcorn.  I just want kernels I can pop in my wok.  And sure, I can open these packets, but …. I figure there’s gotta be cheaper.

  24. 24.

    sdhays

    @Andrya: There’s speculation that this was all about getting paid. Prigozhin never wanted Putin’s job; he just wanted to get the money he was promised – maybe for “taking” Bakhmut, maybe for something else, and Shoigu/Putin’s decision to end Wagner and make them regular Russian Army basically threatened to end Prigozhin’s gravy train. Honestly, the pettiness of it all makes this speculation seem pretty likely.

    What does seem obvious is that allowing Prigozhin to publicly shit on Shoigu and Gerasimov for months with impunity was…unwise. Prigozhin has set himself up as the guy mid-level and grunt-level members of the Russian Army see as someone who “gets it” and would lead them to victory. Civilians clearly think so too. Oops.

  25. 25.

    CaseyL

    The whole blew up so fast, and then blew over so fast, I’m not at all sure what to make of it.

    Was it all a head fake, hoping to distract Ukraine’s forces and disrupt its strategy?  If so, it doesn’t seem to have worked.

    Was it a head fake to see if any Western powers would encourage/support Prigozhin, which could then be used for domestic propaganda?  If so, that also doesn’t seem to have worked.

    Prigozhin may still be too useful to Putin in other parts of the world to murder him over a called-off mutiny, no matter how weak he made Putin look.

  26. 26.

    Martin

    @OGLiberal: I don’t think influential Russians have buds. I think they have interests, and sometimes you share interests for a few hours, and then you don’t and someone gets thrown out of a window.

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    If the Wagner troops that did not participated in the mutiny, are signed as contract soldiers in the Russian Army, are incorporated into the Southern Military District, that would still be a threatening situation given that SMD may be unreliable from Putin’s perspective. & what of the uncharged Wagner troops who have mutinied? Do they just meekly demobilize, or are they liquidated in a Night of the Long Knives? Does Putin regime still have the capacity to execute a Night of the Long Knives? Which other warlord does Putin have to cede power & influence to in order to liquidate the unreliable Wagnerites? How loyal are the non-conscript Wagner troops to Prigozhin? Do Wagner assets/resources get divided up into the other Russian PMCs?

    To think, all of these are direct consequences of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

  28. 28.

    Roberto el oso

    @Andrya: If Prigo is marked down for assassination it would seem prudent to also purge several upper ranks’ worth of Wagner personnel. Whether such a purge takes the form of literal liquidation or if what remains of Wagner is so thoroughly dispersed throughout the regular army that it loses its power will be something definitely worth keeping an eye on. But the whole thing seems risky, since Prigo does seem to have maintained and fostered a lot of genuine loyalty among his employees/comrades, so dispersing them might be like spreading germs of discontent far and wide. At any rate, the loyalty towards Prigo is likely being severely tested right now, since it “looks” as though he bought safe passage to Belarus at the cost of abandoning his men.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Martin: The Kazakh leader Tokayev told Putin in a call yesterday that the Wagner mutiny is an internal Russian affair, same from other Central Asian leaders. This after Putin sent the VDV to Astana to help put down a rebellion in Jan. 2022.

  30. 30.

    Betsy

    @Chetan Murthy: I just buy the higher-quality kernels in a jar, like Orville Redenbacher or similar.  You get so many,many batches out of a jar  that no matter what brand you choose, it’s a bargain — and a fraction (like 1/8th or 1/10th) of the cost of microwave popcorn.  I mean, two tablespoons of kernels makes more popcorn than you can eat in a sitting.

  31. 31.

    JaySinWA

    @Chetan Murthy:

    I use a collapsible silicone microwave popper. I used to use Orville Redenbacher, but I had a hard time getting consistent results with the equipment. Lately I get better results in terms of popping without burning with a set time with Jolly Time or even store brands.

    If you are doing it stove top with a wok, Orville would probably be fine, but you might want less expensive brands until you get the technique down.

    ETA I get more bang for my buck with the less expensive stuff. OTOH I think Jolly TIme may be a little more consistent than the generic grocery store house brands for not a lot more in cost

    ETA2 I pour the plastic bagged stuff into a glass jar to keep it longer between pops. Part of my problem with OR may have been the large plastic container it came in (from Costco) not being used quickly enough.

  33. 33.

    Andrya

    @sdhays:  I don’t think we disagree.  It’s entirely possible- actually likely- that prigozhin, who is in it for the money, just wanted to get paid.  (putin and Trump have this in common- they do not pay their debts.)  But now that prigozhin has openly challenged putin- with troops- even if just for perfectly legitimate pay, can putin allow him to survive?  I wouldn’t want to write a life insurance policy on prigozhin.

  35. 35.

    BeautifulPlumage

    All the other little bits I’m wondering about:

    Prog just opened the new Wagner center in St Pete last year, which was raided yesterday. And the swat team claimed “we found a truck full of cash” which Prog responded to by saying he had 2 trucks and a bus full of cash. I assume the government confiscated the money, so why leave it there prior to the coup attempt?

    The populace in Rostov seemed very nonplussed about the invasion, like they knew it was theater. That can’t make Moscow very happy.

    Kadyrov’s troops never showed up anywhere? What Chechnyas  doing?

    Anyway, interesting times and all that.

  37. 37.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: it reminds me of what sociologists write about Mafioso: there actually isn’t any honor there; they betray each other constantly,  and there’s not much more going on.

  38. 38.

    The Moar You Know

    I don’t know if anyone caught Xi’s speech last night regarding the Russian situation, but he did mention that Vladvostok is part of historical China. He is just waiting to pounce.​

    @patrick II: I have suspected for the last few years that China would just simply outright buy most of Siberia.  They need it for cropland.

    Now…they might just take it.  That comment, were I Putin, would have me thinking how to get the most for the region, as fast as possible.

  40. 40.

    Ked

    @Chetan Murthy: ​
     
    I dunno from cheap, but if you do a search for “mushroom popcorn” on Amazon, that’s the good stuff. If you want cheap just go to your local supermarket. Basically you have a choice between white popcorn and yellow popcorn, sometimes each in miniature variants. I like bigger and white, but everyone has their own prefs.

  41. 41.

    JaySinWA

    There is likely to be a lot of fallout from this event, as others have pointed out. One thing I would be interested in hearing about is what effect this has on the total number and quality of RU troops and Mercs in Ukraine before and after this episode. Was it a significant draw down for this raid, and will it be replenished?

    The attempt to move Wagner under MOD didn’t seem to be going well before. Apparently they think they can still do it, but there wasn’t any trust between groups before this, I can’t see making it better.

  42. 42.

    BeautifulPlumage

    @Andrya: but the claim is that the swat team that searched the Wagner HQ found a truck full of cash. Why leave that around if money is the issue?

  43. 43.

    sdhays

    @YY_Sima Qian: I thought that the Wagnerites that participated with Prigozhin were going to Belarus too.

    If they’re not, Prigozhin is a fool. He may well be a fool, but I don’t think he’s that kind of a fool.

  44. 44.

    bookworm1398

    Prigozhin Future – At this point I wonder if letting him off might not be the best move for Putin. Support the theory that this was some kind of false flag/ conspiracy. Killing him would confirm it was a real rebellion.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @bookworm1398: I would hope you’re right.  But I fear that the only people who count in Russia are the elites, who all know the real score.  Knowing that if you come at the King, you *will* be put down with two shots the back of the head, is “encourager pour les autres”.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @sdhays: Why would Lukashenko accept mutinous Wagner troops loyal to Prigozhin? That asking to be couped himself, & then Prigozhin can officially deliver Belarus to Putin to get back in his good graces.

  47. 47.

    Andrya

    @BeautifulPlumage:  My assumption is that putin lies all the time, and if something he says is true, it’s an accident.  If putin says “the sky is blue” I’m going to the window to check that the sky isn’t suddenly green.

  48. 48.

    dmsilev

    Analogies…

    Best parallel I can think of is if we tried to invade Canada because we thought Vancouver was basically ours, the entire US military got tied up in the forest, then Blackwater turned on us and started heading towards DC overnight, except Blackwater was financed by Rachael Ray.
    — Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) June 24, 2023

  49. 49.

    patrick II

    @The Moar You Know: ​
     
    I responded earlier that he has talked about reclaiming parts of historical China but the part I think he lusts after is Vladivstok for its access to the Pacific. He is hemmed in to the South.

  50. 50.

    JaySinWA

    @bookworm1398: I think that no matter what the truth of the matter is, there’s an opportunity for Putin to paint it as a plan he and Prog put together to expose the traitors. I saw at least one Twitter wag speculating about that during the threats and early fog of war stuff.

    Prog. might have an “accident” later to clean up loose ends, with “plausible deniability”. Heck it might even be partially true.

  51. 51.

    hitchhiker

    @JaySinWA:

    This is what I do:

    1/3 of a cup of Orville R. kernels in a plain brown paper lunch sack. Fold the top over 1/4 inch once, and then again so it’s tightly closed. Seal with a little square of masking tape. You have an almost empty bag with the top closed & a little popcorn in the bottom.

    Lay it on its side in the microwave for about 2min & 40sec — I set it for 3 min and listen starting around 2min 20sec for the noise to slow down.

    It’s perfect every time. The bag will be full, it won’t be burned, no oil needed. I can’t believe anybody pays for “microwave” popcorn.

  52. 52.

    Quiltingfool

    I was over at LGM earlier today and some jamoke unwisely criticized Adam.  I thought, “Oh, shit, son, you’re gonna learn the meaning of, “Don’t start none, won’t be none.”  I was not disappointed.  Other commenters stomped on the troll and he skedaddled.  Heh.

  55. 55.

    PJ

    @Chetan Murthy: I’ve had consistently good results with the Trader Joe’s brand.  I pop it in a 5″ deep pan (with a lid, obviously), which I guess is probably similar to a wok.  I alternate leaving it on the burner for five seconds, and lifting and shaking the kernels for five minutes, until all the kernels are popped.

  56. 56.

    Calouste

    @bookworm1398: Prigozhin won’t be killed, he’ll have an accident. Accidents unfortunately happen, bad drivers over there in Belarus you know.

    Belarus seems to be too close to really neutralize Prigozhin, unless he is pretty much put under house arrest. Dubai or so would be a more obvious retirement location.

  60. 60.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @patrick II: China just obtained duty free access to Vladivostok & duty free transit through the sliver of Russian territory to get to the port. That is helpful for the future economic development of the northeastern provinces.

    There are many ways to achieve objectives w/o risking bloodshed or nuclear war.

  61. 61.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    Boy, the good people of Rostov on Don sure af enjoyed all this excitement.

    Just the same, ZaporihziaNPP may still be mined & Adam, you still haven’t addressed the reports that there is a Cholera outbreak among Russian soldiers in the occupied areas of Kherson. That seems, significant.

  64. 64.

    Andrya

    @BeautifulPlumage:  Thanks for contributing your thoughts!

    I totally agree with weird, but I don’t trust prigozhin either.  If prigozhin says the sky is blue, I’m also going to check.  What either of them are up to with the cash story (which could be true or false) I just don’t know.  Was the cash an oversight on Wagner’s part?  Is the amount at stake in a financial dispute (between prigozhin and putin) so large that it dwarfs the cash left behind?  Is the prigozhin/putin dispute about other stuff, like mismanagement of the war?  I have no idea.

    I also have no idea why Stalin thought he could trust Hitler (before June 1941) or why Hitler declared war on the United States in Dec. 1941.  I suspect being an absolute, bloody handed dictator may not be completely compatible with clear-headed logical thinking.

  65. 65.

    Geminid

    @BeautifulPlumage:

    What Chechnyas doing?

    Someone observed that the Chechens are always “on their way,” but they never seem to arrive.

    A Chechen contingent did make it to the airport outside Kyiv, in the first hours of the invasion. They did not make it any further though, and their commander was the first general killed in this war.

  66. 66.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Whatever else just happened, Prigozhin just made a fool of Putin in public.  He made Putin look pathetically weak, and showed all of Russia that if you stand up to Putin, Putin will back down.  No amount of spin is going to change that.  It doesn’t even matter if that’s what Prigozhin and Putin thought was happening.  That’s what the world, including and especially the Russians themselves, saw happen.

  67. 67.

    Calouste

    @Andrya: IIRC the cash amounted to a couple of million dollars, which would be maybe a few weeks worth of running expenses for a 25,000 soldier army. Not a big deal really. If Putin bribed Prigozhin, I’d expect the sum to be in the tens of millions.

  68. 68.

    Viva BrisVegas

    I’m wondering how Prigo expected to get to Moscow when Putin controlled the air. Wagner would surely have been smashed along the highway by whatever is the Russian equivalent of the A-10.

    So either he had a deal to neutralise Russian air support, and that deal suddenly fell though. Or it was all a political feint.

    Either way his taking Putin’s deal starts making more sense.

  70. 70.

    Chetan Murthy

    For Ukraine’s sake, if Prigo  isn’t gonna take out >=4-digit RU soldiers in max fratricide, best that he gets his polonium milkshake soonest: he was actually competent  (compared to other RU commanders).  And his lieutenants too, of course.

  71. 71.

    JaySinWA

    @Chetan Murthy: Dead or alive having Prigo out of Ukraine is probably a good thing for Ukraine. I doubt Belarus is his ultimate destination, there were mumble words about Africa, but out of Ukraine is probably good.

  72. 72.

    Calouste

    @Chetan Murthy: The MoD could have launched a volley of cruise missiles to take Wagner out I’d think? If you can hit an apartment building in Kyiv you can hit a miles long convoy on a freeway. But that wasn’t what happened, instead they dug up part of the freeway further up the road as a blockade.

    There are still a lot of weird things about the last 24 hours. I mean, the MoD would have reacted way differently if this had been a column of Ukrainian soldiers heading to Moscow.

  74. 74.

    JaySinWA

    @JaySinWA: To revise and extend my remarks, it is my understanding that Prigo controls a lot of Russia’s forces outside of Ukraine and I think these forces contribute to Russia’s economic and political survival. It may be difficult to replace that control, giving Prigo some leverage and safety short term. Putin may well want to have Prigo have some “accident” but he would want a plan to replace him with someone who could be successful in that rold. I would be surprised if Prigo was taken out soon.

  75. 75.

    Sebastian

    @Calouste:

    The Russian military is way too inflexible. This group of 15 is responsible for target programming:

    https://www.bellingcat.com/resources/2022/10/28/how-we-geolocated-a-photo-of-a-russian-missile-programming-team/

     

    Wagner was moving WAY too fast. The Russian Air Force bombed (or tried to bomb) the highway to Moscow and there were numerous truck blockades. But most importantly, Russian helicopters blew up fuel depots to prevent Wagner from resupplying.

    The whole shitshow forced Putin to make a public statement at 9 am local time and from what I read, this was what really freaked out the public.

  76. 76.

    Sebastian

    @Viva BrisVegas:

    Russian Air Force was flying sorties. they bombed a highway (but missed) and they blew up fuel depots. Several helicopters were downed, at least one more almost blown up by a MANPAD (close miss), and they lost a military passenger plane capable of carrying 8 people (officers?).

  77. 77.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    I think the last 36 hrs seems more like a mutiny by a warlord than a civil war, no? Or are we calling it a civil war because it was well planned (well in advance) & executed? If it was a civil war, Prigozhin seems to have given up far too easily for not much at all.

    Civil war would have been if Prigozhin had somehow succeeded in turning significant numbers of MOD-controlled forces to his side. Had he actually done this, Wagner would still be in the fight, and Prigozhin would appear savvy, instead of the massive flaky loud-mouthed fraud that he confirmed himself to be.

    Without a faction of MOD supporting Wagner, this was simply a badly-thought-out, petty, doomed mutiny. Wagner would never have had the fuel to reach Moscow in force, let alone the ability to protect its column. Prigozhin is exactly what he appeared to be—a media-attention-seeking fabulist incompetent with delusions of grandeur. He never grasped what seizing power would really require of his force.

  78. 78.

    Enhanced Voting Techniques

    My take on today’s Coupe-de-didn’t-happen is Putin tried to outwit Putin, which just outraged Putin, who retaliated with typical voilance towards Putin, but lucky for Putin, Putin was able to broker a deal between Putin and Putin.

  79. 79.

    Martin

    @YY_Sima Qian: Yeah, it think a civil war requires the citizenry to participate and draw up sides against one another – geographically, ethnically, etc. That didn’t happen here. This was a coup attempt.

    Some called it a mutiny. Maybe – I think if Shoigu was the target that’d be a mutiny, but Wagner did clearly state that establishing a new president was the goal. How serious about that we’ll never know.

  80. 80.

    Sebastian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Right, Rostov is one thing. Moscow, on a prayer and a tank of gas, a whole different story.

    But either way, Putin’s image is in tatters. He is no longer the guarantor of stability for Moscow and St. Petersburg and it feels like all options are on the table now.

    To me, the most likely next events are Russians busy scheming and killing each other, their attention turned inward, cleansing of ranks, especially at FSB.

    Alliances will be formed. Some oligarchs bailed. I wonder how that will be seen by Putin and other power players.

    What should worry Putin the most, though, are the commanders who sat and waited who’ll win. He has to wonder how many troops will have if this happens again? (and it will sooner or later)

  81. 81.

    oldster

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Your analysis here comes closest to my current thinking.

    200 klicks from Moscow, Prigozhin has the following conversation, with himself, with Putin, or with Lukashenko:

    “It’s going well! So far, the resistance has been minimal. The regular Army has decided to sit on their hands. The Air Force has put on a minimal show, but nothing we can’t handle. No major political figures — the mayors of Moscow or St. Petes, significant oligarchs — have spoken out to condemn us.”

    “But the Army is not joining you. The Air Force is not joining you. No major political figures have come out to advocate for you. Your strength is not growing. You have only the same number of troops and tanks now that you brought across in Rostov. If your forces are not snowballing, growing bigger with every step, then your coup will fail. It’s not enough for the Regular Army not to oppose you — you need it to join you. And it is not joining you.”

    “Okay, let’s make a deal….”

  82. 82.

    Princess

    @Carlo Graziani: yeah, something like this is my take too. And Putin knew who he was dealing with and how to deal with him. Which doesn’t mean it didn’t weaken Putin too.

  83. 83.

    ETtheLibrarian

    The genie isn’t going back in the bottle and Pandora’s box was opened.

    Putin unleashed something when he invaded Ukraine. And he just ended up exposing himself and Russia.

    Now NATO is bigger and Ukraine is closer to the west. Russia now has private military groups like Wager looking better than the Russian military, there  are other private military groups developed like companies like Gazprom (like that is a good for the country). The country has a tanked economy and they are loosing money, men, and munitions/equipment in Ukraine with little to show for it. Putin ended up exposing himself and the country in an effort to show that Russia still mattered. One wonders what is next.

    I would say it can’t get worse for Russia, but it likely can.

    This feels precarious for Ukraine. Putin has been terrible for the running of the war, but someone else might do better and Ukraine seems to have taken advantage of Russia doing such a bad job.

  85. 85.

    Tony G

    The fact that, in spite of the vast size and resources of Russia, Putin had to rely on a mercenary force that is actively hostile to him and to the Russian Army is remarkable.  The Wagner Group forces are now back in Ukraine — ostensibly supported the Russian forces that they almost attacked.  This almost-coup by the Wagner is the latest illustration of Putin’s weakness.  His enemies have taken note.

  86. 86.

    lowtechcyclist

    When Prigozhin decided he wasn’t going the last bit of the way to Moscow after all, what I wonder is, why didn’t he just head back to Rostov?

    The locals seemed to be happy that he and his troops were there, no local Russian military were trying to attack him, and assuming Putin could have found troops willing to try and root him out of Rostov, they’d probably have had to do some serious damage to the city in order to do so.

    Which Putin might have done, but it would have made your average Russian a lot more afraid of him even if they had no intention of saying anything that would remotely sound like questioning the war.

    As others have noted, Prigozhin’s remaining days are likely to be few, now that he’s in Belarus.  Surely he had to see this.

  87. 87.

    dirge

    @lowtechcyclist: why didn’t he just head back to Rostov?

    I had very much the same thought.  He probably could have held Rostov for some time, and created a huge problem for the war effort, gaining big leverage.

    But I think the logic must run something like this:

    The elites/officers aren’t swinging behind me now.  Holding Rostov, and threatening the war effort, undercuts my message that the war should be fought more aggressively/competently.  Doing that will unify them against me.  I’m then trapped there, where I can hold out indefinitely and maybe carve out a statelet like Kadyrov’s, but at the cost of losing Ukraine, kicking off the fragmentation of Russia, and becoming the traitor they accuse me of being.

    Maybe it was myopia, maybe pessimism, but I think it’s mostly that it’d run counter to his actual objective of seizing power within the existing regime.  Dunno, maybe he’s now kicking himself for not trying it.

  88. 88.

    Traveller

    @patrick II: Mistake or not, I found the discussion between you and @YY_Sima Qian To be valuable and interesting.

    Especially @YY_Sima Qian‘s Response and reference to vativostok. So thank you it may be more appropriate than you thinking that you were off Topic. Best wishes, Traveler

  89. 89.

    Jinchi

    @lowtechcyclist: The locals seemed to be happy that he and his troops were there

    I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion. If there were a heavily armed private army occupying a local town on the way to lay siege to our Capitol, the only civilians you’d see on the street would be the true believers. The people you see on camera are probably not representative of the whole population.

    If things go badly the civilians are the ones most likely to get caught in the crossfire.

  90. 90.

    Carlo Graziani

    Interesting take in the Moscow Times on how Chinese-Russian relations are likely to be affected by Prigozhin’s clown show:

    Sari Arho Havren, a Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) associate fellow specializing in Chinese foreign affairs, said: “Xi likely sees the background of the Wagner mutiny as serious incompetence. The rebellion clearly dented Putin’s prestige — and the main consequence is how weak Russia’s power structure now appears in the eyes of others. The Chinese Communist Party has a fear of chaos and instability in its DNA.”

    Appearing weak and wounded in front of Beijing will be a serious blow to Moscow — and to Putin personally, who has spent years building up Russia’s ties with China and increasingly relies on its political backing and growing trading links.

    The CPC leadership is no doubt thinking back to their frankly appalled attitude towards Gorbachev’s Glasnost/Perestroika policies, which they (rightly) viewed as responsible first for the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and later for the collapse of the USSR. Whatever respect they may have had for Putin’s ability to exert control and produce stability (their highest political value) is now flushed. Which is awkward, and must be very worrying to Beijing, since there are not a lot of other players comparable to Russia that they can choose as allies.

  92. 92.

    Another Scott

    @Chetan Murthy: Dead thread, but…

    I’m a big fan of Yoder Popcorn. I usually buy 6 pounds of the Premium White ($9, plus shipping) a couple of times a year. I keep it in the freezer. They have lots of varieties (I’ve tried the Tiny Tender and the Monster Mushroom but like the regular white best).

    It’s not as cheap as the generic yellow stuff you can buy at Target, etc., but it’s so much better.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  94. 94.

    Tony G

    For some reason (maybe “journalism” incompetence) I haven’t seen much emphasis of this: The Wagner Group shenanigans  were not, in fact, a bloodless show of force.  They shot down a half-dozen Russian helicopters, killing about a dozen crewmen.  That is an act of war by any criteria.  That means that those Russian families lost a son or brother — and, perhaps more importantly, that means that the Russian military lost some expensive equipment and expensive trained personnel.  A competent commander-in-chief would have reacted to this act of treason by using force to suppress and disband the Wagner Group and then arrested the group’s leaders.  Instead, everybody got off with impunity.  For a couple of decades, Putin has been keeping himself in power through fear.  But, by showing this level of weakness is he, in effect, forfeiting the only basis of his power?

  95. 95.

    Tony G

    @Tony G: Correction: NOT “almost attacked”.  The Wagner Group did, in fact, attack Russian Army forced, killing about a dozen servicemen.

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