Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Sitting here in limbo waiting for the dice to roll

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

The gop is a fucking disgrace.

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Another missed opportunity for Jamie Dimon to just shut the fuck up.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Let’s finish the job.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 489: Russia Returns To Bombarding Ukrainian Civilian Targets

War for Ukraine Day 489: Russia Returns To Bombarding Ukrainian Civilian Targets

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia has once again returned to bombarding Ukrainian civilian targets.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Every manifestation of terror proves to the whole world that Russia deserves only defeat and a tribunal – address by the President of Ukraine

27 June 2023 – 23:11

Fellow Ukrainians!

Exactly on the anniversary of the Russian terrorists’ attack on Kremenchuk, on the shopping mall, when 22 people were killed, Russian savages again fired missiles at the Kremenchuk district.

Today, Russian terrorists also brutally shelled Kramatorsk. S-300 missiles. Three people were killed, including a child. My condolences to the families and friends. As of this hour, more than 40 people are wounded. Assistance is being provided to all. The rubble is being cleared.

Each such manifestation of terror proves over and over again to us and to the whole world that Russia deserves only one thing as a result of everything it has done – defeat and a tribunal, fair and legal trials against all Russian murderers and terrorists.

And I thank again and again everyone in the world who supports Ukraine and helps protect our people!

Today we have a new defense package from the United States for our warriors. Armored vehicles and ammunition for Patriots, Stingers and HIMARS. Additional shells for our artillery. I thank Mr. President Biden, the Congress, both parties, and all Americans!

I spoke with Mr. Prime Minister of Norway. I thanked him for the support provided – defense, economic, and political. It is very significant! I informed him about my trip yesterday to the frontline, to our warriors, about our current defense capabilities. I voiced some of our military needs. We also discussed the creation of a fighter jet coalition. A separate topic in the conversation was the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius. I am grateful to Norway for its understanding!

Today, I also held a special meeting with our international experts – the Office and the government – to discuss preparations for the Vilnius Summit. I am confident that the decisions of the summit can be positive for Ukraine! We are doing everything possible for this and have engaged all of Ukraine’s international capabilities.

And, of course, the frontline. Our heroes, our active actions. Today, we also have advancement! In all directions where we are conducting offensive operations. Thank you, warriors! Today we have important results in repelling Russian assaults. I am very grateful to you!

Today, I would like to pay special tribute to the glorious 3rd separate assault brigade, the strong 28th separate mechanized brigade, the heroic 54th separate mechanized brigade and the tough 57th separate motorized infantry brigade. I thank all of you, warriors! Well done!

Thank you for every occupier destroyed and every Ukrainian life saved!

Glory to our heroes! Thank you to everyone in the world who is not afraid of Russian terrorists and is restoring security in the world together with us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s video from the attack on Kramatorsk.

WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

ALL CLEAR!!

Here’s the announcement of the new US military aid package to Ukraine.

From the DOD:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
June 27, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s forty-first drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package, valued at up to $500 million, includes key capabilities to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations, strengthen its air defenses to help Ukraine protect its people, as well as additional armored vehicles, anti-armor systems, critical munitions, and other equipment to help Ukraine push back on Russia’s war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package include:

  • Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
  • Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
  • Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
  • Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
  • Mine clearing equipment;
  • 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
  • 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
  • 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
  • Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
  • Javelin anti-armor systems;
  • AT-4 anti-armor systems;
  • Anti-armor rockets;
  • High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
  • Precision aerial munitions;
  • Small arms and over 22 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
  • Thermal imagery systems and night vision devices;
  • Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
  • Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

That’s really all I have the bandwidth for tonight. So we’ll pick it back up tomorrow.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Увага! Відео минулорічне. Сьогодні я вкотре хочу закликати вас в жодному разі НЕ купатися на територіях, що розташовані поблизу проведення бойових дій або на деокупованих територіях. Там можуть залишатися боєприпаси, і ці ділянки можуть бути ще не розмінованими. Також нагадаю, що наразі офіційно заборонено купатися на територіях Херсонської, Одеської та Миколаївської областей. Купання та вилов риби в цих регіонах можуть загрожувати здоров’ю через ризик високої концентрації шкідливих речовин у воді. Бережіть себе! Усім безпечний літній лизь💛

♬ водичка кайф – Landrreeva

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Attention: the video is from last year. Today, I would like to urge you once again NOT to swim in the areas located in the vicinity of hostilities or in the de-occupied territories. There may still be ammunition there, and these areas may not yet be demined. I would also like to remind you that swimming is currently officially prohibited in Kherson, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Swimming and fishing in these regions can pose a health risk due to the risk of high concentrations of harmful substances in the water. Take care of yourself! Safe lick for everyone 💛

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

55Comments

  1. 1.

    Omnes Omnibus

    Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
    Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment.

    I know everyone wants the sexy stuff, but this shit is what keeps a mechanized army functioning,

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Pizza places and shoe stores, definitely high up on the valuable targets list. When your government and military are filled with psychopaths, that is.

    According to the NYT, Lukashenko said putin suggested killing prigozhin, but that he’d talked him out of it. Which…I mean, telling me putin thought about murdering someone is pretty much the least surprising information anyone has ever conveyed or received. I feel like on any given day, putin muses about killing at least ten specific people. Also, cool story about your powers of persuasion, Dr Combover, but I believe you as far as I could throw you.

    Here is a sweet video of a woman from Kherson being reunited with her dog who was missing and rescued after the dam explosion.

    Thank you as always, Adam. Hope you’re well.

  5. 5.

    Gin & Tonic

    The translation machine still has a hard time with Patron’s word for “lick.” He is wishing everyone a safe summer lick, not skiing. To be fair, one common word for (snow) skiing is pretty close.

  6. 6.

    BK in NJ

    Thank you, Adam, for your impressive and, for me anyway, essential work keeping us informed every night for nearly a year and a half now.

    Looking at the map of where Wagner troops went and where Prigo  (and how many of his troops?) have gone, I can’t help wondering whether this whole circus was a plot to move a significant force into striking distance of Kyiv while Ukraine’s main forces are busy with counterattack against an allegedly low morale enemy in the south and east.  I assume that if someone as militarily ignorant as I am sees the possibility it’s either been noticed and accounted for by better tactical minds than mine or else is known by them to not be the case for reasons I don’t have the knowledge to understand.  Can you possibly talk me off this ledge?

  10. 10.

    Kirk

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    @BK in NJ: When, in the course of this war, have the Russians shown any glimmer of tactical or strategic creativity?

    The early air assaults to seize the airfields were tactically creative. Poorly executed, failures of equipment and support, but glimmers of tactical creativity nonetheless.

  11. 11.

    Ben Vernia

    On the one hand, refraining from retaliating in kind against Russian civilians is what’s expected and required. It’s the right thing to do and is necessary for them to continue possessing the moral high ground. But sometimes , it is nevertheless amazing that Ukraine has continued to adhere to the law of war.

  13. 13.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Kirk: ISTR (but could be mistaken) that the Hostomel air assault was a replay of the 1968 Prague invasion that also included an assault on the airport.

  14. 14.

    japa21

    @BK in NJ: I have no doubt the border there is closely watched and defended. And as OO states, when has Russia shown any creativity.

  15. 15.

    Shalimar

    @Omnes Omnibus: Were the Russians capable of those air assaults in WWII?  Just because the Germans, British, and Americans were doesn’t mean those tactics aren’t still advanced for Russia.

  16. 16.

    Ruckus

    vlad is a wealthy child, striking out at anything, because he can’t have another country with his blankie.

  19. 19.

    counterfactual

    @BK in NJ: I’m not Adam, but I’ve waiting for a chance to reply to this theory.

    If Putin had wanted Prighozin in Belarus, he could have just ordered him. But we have all this confusion that has weakened Putin politically.

    But let’s assume that Wagner is ordered to attack from Belarus. Most of the border between Ukraine and Belarus is the Pripyet Marshes, so the only real invasion route is the route that the Russians tried in Feb 2022. That route is now heavily defended by soldiers that go through Bucha every time they rotate to the front. There’s no sign that Wagner’s logistics are any better than the Russians’ last year. An attack would be futile.

  21. 21.

    Jay

    @Shalimar:

    The Soviet Union created the doctrine of “deep battle” in the 1930’s. Then Stalin killed all the Generals.

    They tried it a couple of times in WWII, but it didn’t really work well.

  22. 22.

    Anoniminous

    @BK in NJ: ​

    Troops from Belarus would have to attack across the Pripet Marshes. Russians already tried it. Didn’t work. Now the few highways are blocked and mined ready for Kyiv II: The Return of the Exploding Tanks.

  23. 23.

    Rocks

    @BK in NJ: Apparently the border between Ukraine and Belarus is the location of the Pripit Marshes.  In their natural state they are terribly difficult to traverse, which is why they were a favorite hiding area for Soviet partisans during World War II.  It’s been reported that in the last year Ukraine has allowed the natural beaver population to do its thing, resulting in large stretches which would bog down any vehicle and be miserable for dismounted infantry to cross.  I imagine Ukraine would be delighted to have 20,000 Wagner infantry thrashing around in the swamps within easy artillery range.

  24. 24.

    Roger Moore

    @counterfactual:

    If Putin had wanted Prighozin in Belarus, he could have just ordered him.

    Good point.  It’s not like the presence of Wagner in Belarus is a big secret if we’re talking about it on this blog, so it doesn’t seem like Russia would get any benefit by doing it this way.  What would be strategic deception is if the whole thing were a ruse and the “Wagner” forces moving to Belarus were cover for them redeploying somewhere else.

  27. 27.

    Another Scott

    @Roger Moore: My recollection is that Galeev said in one of his giant threads that Lukashenko was hoping to take over the remnants of the USSR before VVP was picked.  It would be kind interesting if he wants to try again with VVP’s days being numbered, and got to thinking that having “the musicians” on his side would be useful…

    We’ll see!

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  28. 28.

    Ruckus

    @Kirk:

    As Omnes states, this is the most basic place to start. And really any child playing war games would do the same. That they were rather unprepared for what came next shows this is the quest of a very child like person, an immature child with a lot of power that was very used to getting his way no matter what.

  31. 31.

    Devore

    @Roger Moore:

     

    If Wagner is a mercenary army.  Why can’t some pay them to attack Belarus instead and topple the current Russian friendly government.

     

     

    and thanks Adam for your usual excellent work

  32. 32.

    Roger Moore

    @Ruckus:

    That they were rather unprepared for what came next shows this is the quest of a very child like person, an immature child with a lot of power that was very used to getting his way no matter what.

    This is harsh but about right.  The Russians planned to overwhelm Ukraine so quickly they wouldn’t have a chance to respond.  It was sensible to try to win as quickly as possible, but they had no plan for what to do if the knockout blow didn’t land.  It reflects massive overconfidence and/or professional incompetence.

    FWIW, I strongly believe Western (mostly American) intelligence was the difference between success and failure for Russia.  Russia depended on surprise to make their plan work, and good intelligence work and a willingness to share it made sure Russia got neither strategic nor tactical surprise.

  34. 34.

    Sebastian

    @Omnes Omnibus:

    Exactly. We saw what happens to an unmaintained army.

    Came across a video on Twitter recently where Ukrainian mechanics said that Western gear is so much easier to maintain than Russian junk.

  35. 35.

    Roger Moore

    @Devore:

    If Wagner is a mercenary army. Why can’t some pay them to attack Belarus instead and topple the current Russian friendly government.

    Just because someone is a mercenary doesn’t mean they’re required to accept any offer.  Wagner is above all else a Russian outfit.  They recruit Russian troops, use Russian-made equipment, and so forth.  They are unlikely to try toppling the Belarusian government unless Russia is OK with them doing it.  Otherwise, they’ll find their supply of recruits and equipment dry up, and those troops will discover they aren’t free to return home when their contracts are up.  That might be OK for the guys at the top, but they’ll need something very nice to offer their troops in exchange for becoming homeless vagabonds if they want to avoid a mutiny.

  36. 36.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Roger Moore: I read that Wagner’s few pilots all quit when Wagner’s convoy to Moscow shot down VKS choppers and that fixed-wing transport plane.  Wagner is “mercenaries” in the sense of being a deniable way for Russia to exert military power.  But that’s it; otherwise, they’re just another arm of the state.

  37. 37.

    Jinchi

    @BK in NJ: Looking at the map of where Wagner troops went and where Prigo (and how many of his troops?) have gone, I can’t help wondering whether this whole circus was a plot to move a significant force into striking distance of Kyiv

    That’s too clever by half to achieve what could have been done more easily by simply sending Wagner to protect the border near Belgorod against more incursions.

  38. 38.

    Bill Arnold

    @MagdaInBlack:

    I admit I was thinking along those lines as well. Just how much does VVP trust Lukashenko?

    I figure[1] that a FSB assassination squad installed a tamper-responding remote kill device in Lukashenko when he was in a Moscow hospital in late May. And that his loyalty is thus assured, with disloyalty punishable by death.

    [1] This is not entirely serious. Also, a minute of thought leads to a big tree of possible designs. :-)

  39. 39.

    Geminid

    Retweeted by Laura Rozen:

        Russian military police reportedly detained four Wagner commanders in Syria.

    Bakhti Nishsnov @b_nishsnov.

    The Wagner Group has been operating in eastern Syria on behalf of the Assad government.

    On Monday, Russian planes bombed a market in northwest Syria, causing dozens of casualties.

  40. 40.

    Chetan Murthy

    Oh, this is interesting: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2023/06/too-much-fun

    The US “is investigating” the possibility that General. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, might have helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend. And oh yes

    American officials also said there are signs that other Russian generals may also have supported Mr. Prigozhin’s attempt to change the leadership of the Defense Ministry by force.

    And we’re not saying that Prigozhin supporters are laced through the Russian military, but

    There were other signs of divided loyalties in the top ranks. Another Russian general — Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alekseyev — made his own video appeal, calling any actions against the Russian state a “stab in the back of the country and president.” But hours later, he surfaced in another video, chatting with Mr. Prigozhin in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where Wagner fighters seized military facilities.

  43. 43.

    Wombat Probability Cloud

    @Anoniminous: Makes sense, intuitively, and lots of respect for the bravery of those carrying out this methodical purge. On a geeky note, I’ve been wondering why the smoke (for want of a better word) from grenades is so dark compared to other munitions.

  44. 44.

    bookworm139&

    @40. It would make sense for the US to say they thought generals were working with Wagner whether they were or not. Hope it gives Putin more sleepless nights

  45. 45.

    BK in NJ

    Being as ignorant as I proclaimed myself to be, I was unaware of the Pripit Marshes.  I must admit I am more reassured by their existence than by proclamations that Russians are too stupid to think of false flag operations and distractions.  Thanks, guys.

  47. 47.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Wagner is “mercenaries” in the sense of being a deniable way for Russia to exert military power.  But that’s it; otherwise, they’re just another arm of the state.

    This is worth playing on repeat, for the benefit of people who believe that Wagner is some independent force with agency that could survive disavowal by the Russian government.

    Wagner quite simply ceases to exist without Russian MOD support. It’s just a bunch of mercs, with no independent access to weapons, ammo, transport, intelligence, communications, or even uniforms or food, for that matter.

    To speak of Wagner as a force for Russia to reckon with, in Belarus or elsewhere, is to completely misunderstand its role as an invention by the Russian state as a means of projecting power semi-deniably. It is tantamount to a personalistic framing that takes seriously Prigozhin’s Telegram posturing while neglecting to acknowledge the actual sources of Wagner’s influence and power.

    By the standards of Russian political maneuvering, Prigozhin is a cretin. What he wants or plans simply does not matter any more. His organization existed at Putin’s pleasure, and will be disposed of under the same terms. If you want an analogy among the Nazi potentates, he is not Goering, or Himmler, but rather Rudolph Hess: a romantic dabbler, far, far out of his depth in the shark pool.

  48. 48.

    Shalimar

    @Bill Arnold: Are we sure Prigozhin wasn’t the oligarch running the assassination squads?  Also, Putin’s ability to have people murdered might be limited for awhile by his distrust of his various lieutenants even if it wasn’t Prigozhin.

  49. 49.

    bjacques

    Is it possible that Wagner has a future but Pringles does not? (Except as a figurehead, for awhile longer.) His rising popularity is a threat, though he won’t get another Bakhmut to outshine the army on the battlefield. It would make sense to approach his commanders, who are more capable than their Russian army counterparts, with an offer they can’t refuse. The loot from Africa and elsewhere continues to flow, but past Pringles, not through him. And now Dictator Combover has to babysit a thug with poor impulse control.

  50. 50.

    charon

    https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1673981323898241024

    The New York Times cites U.S. intelligence suggesting that General Sergei Surovikin and potentially other high-ranking military officials were implicated in the Prigozhin mutiny. Here are my observations:

    📌 By the start of Prigozhin’s mutiny, it was well known about an established split between the military leadership of Shoigu/Gerasimov and Surovikin, not so much a power struggle but a divergence in the understanding of Russia’s Ukraine strategy and relationships with Private Military Companies in general and Wagner in particular. While a sharp conflict persisted between Wagner and Shoigu\Gerasimov, Surovikin interacted with Prigozhin, had at least a working relationship, and even acted as a mediator (in early May he was involved in resolving problems with the supply of ammunition). This relationship was likely approved by Putin, suggesting this divide was not a rebellion.

    snip

    📌 There were likely sympathizers of Prigozhin within the military, but it’s more accurate to say they held discontent toward Shoigu and Putin. The question remains whether those who report to Putin these days could tarnish the image of such sympathizers, transforming them into conspirators for the purpose of potential purges against them. Intriguingly, the main beneficiary seems to be Shoigu: with Prigozhin and Wagner out of the picture, Putin is now immunized against a similar mutiny and any sort of experiences with PMCs, as a new opportunity has arisen to handle issues within the army. It raises the question of whether driving Prigozhin to such desperation was intentional, possibly to compensate for Putin’s inaction regarding the escalating conflict between Wagner and the army leadership.
    https://nytimes.com/2023/06/27/us/politics/russian-general-prigozhin-rebellion.html

  51. 51.

    charon

    New Yorker excerpts:

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-prigozhins-half-baked-coup-could-mean-for-putins-rule

    Chotiner interview:

    Tatiana Stanovaya is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. In 2018, she founded R. Politik, a political-analysis firm, which is based in France. I recently corresponded with Stanovaya via e-mail. Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, is below. In it, we discuss what Prigozhin was trying to accomplish, why Putin’s response was more passive than might have been expected, and whether a post-Putin Russia is now imaginable.

    snip

    Why is Putin allowing himself to seem weak? Even his spokesman gave credit for the stand-down to Aleksander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus. Is this a conscious strategy?

    This is a frequent query that I have to clarify for Western audiences. Putin does not concern himself with his image in the same way leaders in conventional Western democracies do. His understanding of power is not derived from the populace, but rather from a divine source, a sense of historical rectitude, and a sense of justice. Numerous instances have demonstrated how Putin dismisses public opinion and supports unpopular measures, such as the pension reform in 2018 or the mobilization last autumn. During the war, he was dismissive of the outrage from patriots, appointing the hugely unpopular Valery Gerasimov to oversee the “special military operation,” in January, and extolling the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu. To Putin, the democratic world’s inclination to avoid embarrassment and humiliation morphs into populist enslavement, which can potentially compromise the interests of the state. I am not advocating for or glamorizing Putin. My point is that it would be mistaken to anticipate that his political decisions will be influenced by considerations of optics and public or international opinion. And I concede that this trait is becoming one of the primary weaknesses of his regime, and one which will eventually work against him.

    snip

    Regarding Lukashenko, his role was merely procedural. Putin fundamentally refused to communicate with Prigozhin, while Prigozhin declined to negotiate with Putin’s subordinates. The leader of Belarus was brought in to relay an offer to Prigozhin that he couldn’t refuse. The message was straightforward—face a humiliating demise or retreat to Belarus. It’s crucial to remember that this is not a cast-iron agreement; we’re dealing with human intentions in a moment of shock. Either side may reconsider their commitments, and the confrontation could assume a different form. But I am certain that, regardless of what ensues, Prigozhin’s time is over, and Wagner will be dismantled.

    snip

    What signals do you think he can try to send to other stakeholders and élites that he is still in control? Do you expect changes in strategy vis-à-vis Ukraine or more broadly?

    This is also a typical Western interpretation—to use such terms as “signals to élites” or “stakeholders.” In Putin’s system, all political decisions are made solely and exclusively by Putin himself, with élites or senior officials having no opportunity to question them. He doesn’t feel a need to send any signals domestically. He is much more at ease staying publicly detached, downplaying risks, and addressing internal threats quietly and unexpectedly. As for the strategy in Ukraine, I wouldn’t anticipate any significant changes. However, Prigozhin’s case will reaffirm to Putin how detrimental it can be to fragment military forces. He will strive to centralize command, and discourage any autonomy or individual games in Ukraine.

    Are you beginning to imagine a post-Putin Russia now, even if it’s not imminent, and, if so, does that vision potentially look different from what you expected?

    The nature of a post-Putin Russia could manifest in an array of ways, contingent on when and how the transition happens and the state of the regime at the time. The longer Putin stays in power, the more challenging it may be to uphold “Putinism” and insure continuity. If the domestic situation worsens, the chances of a post-Putin Russia being unstable and chaotic increase. However, the recent events highlight the fragility of the regime in the face of a military revolt. A common sentiment I’ve heard from my contacts in Moscow is that, if Prigozhin had reached Moscow, people wouldn’t have risen up to defend Putin and his regime. The élites would have dispersed, citizens would have rushed to withdraw their money from banks and fled, and those who couldn’t would have adopted a wait-and-see approach. This is a crucial reminder that the current support for Putin, which remains high, is a pragmatic choice to side with the perceived stronger party in times of war. Average Russians harbor no illusions about who Putin is, and there’s a dearth of warm feelings remaining. I believe one of the most profound psychological consequences of this mutiny and its resolution is the realization by many within the Russian political class that one can challenge the status quo and escape unscathed, as demonstrated by Prigozhin. This realization could embolden influential individuals to act more decisively in the future.

    Can you give some flavor of how people in Russia are feeling? What are your conversations like?

    I still have family, friends, and colleagues in Moscow. Their initial reaction was one of shock: people were scrambling to understand what was happening, whether Prigozhin could actually enter Moscow, and what might ensue; they were wondering if they should flee, hide, or withdraw money from the banks and such. This was a very human response. But, when Prigozhin unexpectedly decided to perform an eyebrow-raising about-face, mediated by Lukashenko’s bizarre intervention, and with Putin behaving as if nothing had happened, people began to ridicule the situation. What began as a mutiny morphed into a circus. Now, Russian social networks are awash with jokes about the situation, mocking the farcical actions of Putin, the security services, the army, as well as Prigozhin and Shoigu. Life is resuming its normal rhythm.

  52. 52.

    charon

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673997123543547906

    Stanovaya (whose Twitter game has caught fire lately) is skeptical about the new USG leak implying Surovikin’s advance knowledge of the mutiny, but she says the military may have knowingly driven Prigozhin to it, wanting to force a cleanup of the PMC mess Putin allowed.

    https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1673981323898241024

    The New York Times cites U.S. intelligence suggesting that General Sergei Surovikin and potentially other high-ranking military officials were implicated in the Prigozhin mutiny. Here are my observations:

  53. 53.

    jonas

    @Alison Rose:Lukashenko said putin suggested killing prigozhin, but that he’d talked him out of it.

    If Lukashenko hadn’t stepped up to take credit for talking Putin down from a targeted assassination, Trump surely would have. These bloviating, autocratic assholes all think alike.

  54. 54.

    trucmat

     

    @Carlo Graziani: ​
    Based on your point that Wagner ceases to exist without MOD support and materiel isn’t the term mercenary being misapplied? They may pay personnel from a non government pot of money but Wagner and Prighozin are repaid in numerous ways by the Russian government.

    The question then is calling Wagner mercenaries actually a Russian propaganda frame?

  55. 55.

    Carlo Graziani

    @trucmat: I suppose that’s a terminological issue. Historically, I believe there are grey zones between fullly-private contract mercenary armies and state auxiliaries, The French Foreign Legion springs to mind. Private naval auxiliaries (Letter of Marque Ships) did piracy work on behalf of actual navies, although they were private investments and funded from their looting of enemy commerce.

Comments are closed.