(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Russia has once again returned to bombarding Ukrainian civilian targets.
Today, russian terrorists hit a cafe in Kramatorsk, Donetsk region.
UPD. UPD. At least 3 civilians have been killed, and 25 have been injured. Currently, a search and rescue operation is underway.#russiaisaterroriststate📷 @APUkraine @ukrpravda_news pic.twitter.com/hVolnSjJfV
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 27, 2023
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Every manifestation of terror proves to the whole world that Russia deserves only defeat and a tribunal – address by the President of Ukraine
27 June 2023 – 23:11
Fellow Ukrainians!
Exactly on the anniversary of the Russian terrorists’ attack on Kremenchuk, on the shopping mall, when 22 people were killed, Russian savages again fired missiles at the Kremenchuk district.
Today, Russian terrorists also brutally shelled Kramatorsk. S-300 missiles. Three people were killed, including a child. My condolences to the families and friends. As of this hour, more than 40 people are wounded. Assistance is being provided to all. The rubble is being cleared.
Each such manifestation of terror proves over and over again to us and to the whole world that Russia deserves only one thing as a result of everything it has done – defeat and a tribunal, fair and legal trials against all Russian murderers and terrorists.
And I thank again and again everyone in the world who supports Ukraine and helps protect our people!
Today we have a new defense package from the United States for our warriors. Armored vehicles and ammunition for Patriots, Stingers and HIMARS. Additional shells for our artillery. I thank Mr. President Biden, the Congress, both parties, and all Americans!
I spoke with Mr. Prime Minister of Norway. I thanked him for the support provided – defense, economic, and political. It is very significant! I informed him about my trip yesterday to the frontline, to our warriors, about our current defense capabilities. I voiced some of our military needs. We also discussed the creation of a fighter jet coalition. A separate topic in the conversation was the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius. I am grateful to Norway for its understanding!
Today, I also held a special meeting with our international experts – the Office and the government – to discuss preparations for the Vilnius Summit. I am confident that the decisions of the summit can be positive for Ukraine! We are doing everything possible for this and have engaged all of Ukraine’s international capabilities.
And, of course, the frontline. Our heroes, our active actions. Today, we also have advancement! In all directions where we are conducting offensive operations. Thank you, warriors! Today we have important results in repelling Russian assaults. I am very grateful to you!
Today, I would like to pay special tribute to the glorious 3rd separate assault brigade, the strong 28th separate mechanized brigade, the heroic 54th separate mechanized brigade and the tough 57th separate motorized infantry brigade. I thank all of you, warriors! Well done!
Thank you for every occupier destroyed and every Ukrainian life saved!
Glory to our heroes! Thank you to everyone in the world who is not afraid of Russian terrorists and is restoring security in the world together with us!
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s video from the attack on Kramatorsk.
Another video of the Russian missile strike on central Kramatorsk from local Telegram channel. pic.twitter.com/fmf8zLsKdY
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 27, 2023
WARNING!! WARNING!! GRAPHIC!! WARNING!! WARNING!!
TW: Graphic imagery.
Video via @HromadskeUA of the immediate aftermath of the Russian missile attack on central Kramatorsk. Seeing the wounded infant is absolutely sickening and infuriating. pic.twitter.com/2ISA3z0xNT
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) June 27, 2023
ALL CLEAR!!
Here’s the announcement of the new US military aid package to Ukraine.
The security assistance for Ukraine 🇺🇦 continues.
Today, we’ve announced additional support, valued at up to $500 million, to bolster Ukraine’s battlefield abilities against Russia’s war of unprovoked aggression.https://t.co/ldMJK910cF
— Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III (@SecDef) June 27, 2023
From the DOD:
RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
June 27, 2023Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s forty-first drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021. This package, valued at up to $500 million, includes key capabilities to support Ukraine’s counteroffensive operations, strengthen its air defenses to help Ukraine protect its people, as well as additional armored vehicles, anti-armor systems, critical munitions, and other equipment to help Ukraine push back on Russia’s war of aggression.
The capabilities in this package include:
- Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
- Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
- Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
- Demolitions munitions and systems for obstacle clearing;
- Mine clearing equipment;
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
- 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
- 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
- Javelin anti-armor systems;
- AT-4 anti-armor systems;
- Anti-armor rockets;
- High-speed Anti-radiation missiles (HARMs);
- Precision aerial munitions;
- Small arms and over 22 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
- Thermal imagery systems and night vision devices;
- Testing and diagnostic equipment to support vehicle maintenance and repair;
- Spare parts, generators, and other field equipment.
The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.
That’s really all I have the bandwidth for tonight. So we’ll pick it back up tomorrow.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Увага! Відео минулорічне. Сьогодні я вкотре хочу закликати вас в жодному разі НЕ купатися на територіях, що розташовані поблизу проведення бойових дій або на деокупованих територіях. Там можуть залишатися боєприпаси, і ці ділянки можуть бути ще не розмінованими. Також нагадаю, що наразі офіційно заборонено купатися на територіях Херсонської, Одеської та Миколаївської областей. Купання та вилов риби в цих регіонах можуть загрожувати здоров’ю через ризик високої концентрації шкідливих речовин у воді. Бережіть себе! Усім безпечний літній лизь💛
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Attention: the video is from last year. Today, I would like to urge you once again NOT to swim in the areas located in the vicinity of hostilities or in the de-occupied territories. There may still be ammunition there, and these areas may not yet be demined. I would also like to remind you that swimming is currently officially prohibited in Kherson, Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. Swimming and fishing in these regions can pose a health risk due to the risk of high concentrations of harmful substances in the water. Take care of yourself! Safe lick for everyone 💛
Open thread!
Omnes Omnibus
I know everyone wants the sexy stuff, but this shit is what keeps a mechanized army functioning,
Steeplejack
Redacted (wrong thread).
Alison Rose
Pizza places and shoe stores, definitely high up on the valuable targets list. When your government and military are filled with psychopaths, that is.
According to the NYT, Lukashenko said putin suggested killing prigozhin, but that he’d talked him out of it. Which…I mean, telling me putin thought about murdering someone is pretty much the least surprising information anyone has ever conveyed or received. I feel like on any given day, putin muses about killing at least ten specific people. Also, cool story about your powers of persuasion, Dr Combover, but I believe you as far as I could throw you.
Here is a sweet video of a woman from Kherson being reunited with her dog who was missing and rescued after the dam explosion.
Thank you as always, Adam. Hope you’re well.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose:
BREAKING NEWS !!!!
Gin & Tonic
The translation machine still has a hard time with Patron’s word for “lick.” He is wishing everyone a safe summer lick, not skiing. To be fair, one common word for (snow) skiing is pretty close.
BK in NJ
Thank you, Adam, for your impressive and, for me anyway, essential work keeping us informed every night for nearly a year and a half now.
Looking at the map of where Wagner troops went and where Prigo (and how many of his troops?) have gone, I can’t help wondering whether this whole circus was a plot to move a significant force into striking distance of Kyiv while Ukraine’s main forces are busy with counterattack against an allegedly low morale enemy in the south and east. I assume that if someone as militarily ignorant as I am sees the possibility it’s either been noticed and accounted for by better tactical minds than mine or else is known by them to not be the case for reasons I don’t have the knowledge to understand. Can you possibly talk me off this ledge?
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I tried three different translation programs and got the same with all of them. I’ll fix it in a minute.
Omnes Omnibus
@BK in NJ: When, in the course of this war, have the Russians shown any glimmer of tactical or strategic creativity?
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: MY MIND WAS BLOWN, I TELL YOU.
Kirk
@Omnes Omnibus:
The early air assaults to seize the airfields were tactically creative. Poorly executed, failures of equipment and support, but glimmers of tactical creativity nonetheless.
Ben Vernia
On the one hand, refraining from retaliating in kind against Russian civilians is what’s expected and required. It’s the right thing to do and is necessary for them to continue possessing the moral high ground. But sometimes , it is nevertheless amazing that Ukraine has continued to adhere to the law of war.
Omnes Omnibus
@Kirk:
WWII era stuff.
Chetan Murthy
@Kirk: ISTR (but could be mistaken) that the Hostomel air assault was a replay of the 1968 Prague invasion that also included an assault on the airport.
japa21
@BK in NJ: I have no doubt the border there is closely watched and defended. And as OO states, when has Russia shown any creativity.
Shalimar
@Omnes Omnibus: Were the Russians capable of those air assaults in WWII? Just because the Germans, British, and Americans were doesn’t mean those tactics aren’t still advanced for Russia.
Ruckus
vlad is a wealthy child, striking out at anything, because he can’t have another country with his blankie.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: No worries.
Omnes Omnibus
@Shalimar: That’s fair, but I think my point still holds.
counterfactual
@BK in NJ: I’m not Adam, but I’ve waiting for a chance to reply to this theory.
If Putin had wanted Prighozin in Belarus, he could have just ordered him. But we have all this confusion that has weakened Putin politically.
But let’s assume that Wagner is ordered to attack from Belarus. Most of the border between Ukraine and Belarus is the Pripyet Marshes, so the only real invasion route is the route that the Russians tried in Feb 2022. That route is now heavily defended by soldiers that go through Bucha every time they rotate to the front. There’s no sign that Wagner’s logistics are any better than the Russians’ last year. An attack would be futile.
Roger Moore
@Shalimar:
If other people have been doing it for 80+ years, it’s not creative when you do it, even if it’s your first time.
Jay
@Shalimar:
The Soviet Union created the doctrine of “deep battle” in the 1930’s. Then Stalin killed all the Generals.
They tried it a couple of times in WWII, but it didn’t really work well.
Anoniminous
@BK in NJ:
Troops from Belarus would have to attack across the Pripet Marshes. Russians already tried it. Didn’t work. Now the few highways are blocked and mined ready for Kyiv II: The Return of the Exploding Tanks.
Rocks
@BK in NJ: Apparently the border between Ukraine and Belarus is the location of the Pripit Marshes. In their natural state they are terribly difficult to traverse, which is why they were a favorite hiding area for Soviet partisans during World War II. It’s been reported that in the last year Ukraine has allowed the natural beaver population to do its thing, resulting in large stretches which would bog down any vehicle and be miserable for dismounted infantry to cross. I imagine Ukraine would be delighted to have 20,000 Wagner infantry thrashing around in the swamps within easy artillery range.
Roger Moore
@counterfactual:
Good point. It’s not like the presence of Wagner in Belarus is a big secret if we’re talking about it on this blog, so it doesn’t seem like Russia would get any benefit by doing it this way. What would be strategic deception is if the whole thing were a ruse and the “Wagner” forces moving to Belarus were cover for them redeploying somewhere else.
Chetan Murthy
@Anoniminous: And the 82nd Beaver Battalion is busy reinforcing the water barriers and tank traps.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It should be fixed now.
Another Scott
@Roger Moore: My recollection is that Galeev said in one of his giant threads that Lukashenko was hoping to take over the remnants of the USSR before VVP was picked. It would be kind interesting if he wants to try again with VVP’s days being numbered, and got to thinking that having “the musicians” on his side would be useful…
We’ll see!
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Ruckus
@Kirk:
As Omnes states, this is the most basic place to start. And really any child playing war games would do the same. That they were rather unprepared for what came next shows this is the quest of a very child like person, an immature child with a lot of power that was very used to getting his way no matter what.
MagdaInBlack
@Another Scott: I admit I was thinking along those lines as well. Just how much does VVP trust Lukashenko?
charon
Isaac Chotiner interview of Tatiana Stanovaya:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-prigozhins-half-baked-coup-could-mean-for-putins-rule
Devore
@Roger Moore:
If Wagner is a mercenary army. Why can’t some pay them to attack Belarus instead and topple the current Russian friendly government.
and thanks Adam for your usual excellent work
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
This is harsh but about right. The Russians planned to overwhelm Ukraine so quickly they wouldn’t have a chance to respond. It was sensible to try to win as quickly as possible, but they had no plan for what to do if the knockout blow didn’t land. It reflects massive overconfidence and/or professional incompetence.
FWIW, I strongly believe Western (mostly American) intelligence was the difference between success and failure for Russia. Russia depended on surprise to make their plan work, and good intelligence work and a willingness to share it made sure Russia got neither strategic nor tactical surprise.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks.
Sebastian
@Omnes Omnibus:
Exactly. We saw what happens to an unmaintained army.
Came across a video on Twitter recently where Ukrainian mechanics said that Western gear is so much easier to maintain than Russian junk.
Roger Moore
@Devore:
Just because someone is a mercenary doesn’t mean they’re required to accept any offer. Wagner is above all else a Russian outfit. They recruit Russian troops, use Russian-made equipment, and so forth. They are unlikely to try toppling the Belarusian government unless Russia is OK with them doing it. Otherwise, they’ll find their supply of recruits and equipment dry up, and those troops will discover they aren’t free to return home when their contracts are up. That might be OK for the guys at the top, but they’ll need something very nice to offer their troops in exchange for becoming homeless vagabonds if they want to avoid a mutiny.
Chetan Murthy
@Roger Moore: I read that Wagner’s few pilots all quit when Wagner’s convoy to Moscow shot down VKS choppers and that fixed-wing transport plane. Wagner is “mercenaries” in the sense of being a deniable way for Russia to exert military power. But that’s it; otherwise, they’re just another arm of the state.
Jinchi
That’s too clever by half to achieve what could have been done more easily by simply sending Wagner to protect the border near Belgorod against more incursions.
Bill Arnold
@MagdaInBlack:
I figure[1] that a FSB assassination squad installed a tamper-responding remote kill device in Lukashenko when he was in a Moscow hospital in late May. And that his loyalty is thus assured, with disloyalty punishable by death.
[1] This is not entirely serious. Also, a minute of thought leads to a big tree of possible designs. :-)
Geminid
Retweeted by Laura Rozen:
The Wagner Group has been operating in eastern Syria on behalf of the Assad government.
On Monday, Russian planes bombed a market in northwest Syria, causing dozens of casualties.
Chetan Murthy
Oh, this is interesting: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2023/06/too-much-fun
The US “is investigating” the possibility that General. Sergei Surovikin, the former top Russian commander in Ukraine, might have helped plan Mr. Prigozhin’s actions last weekend. And oh yes
And we’re not saying that Prigozhin supporters are laced through the Russian military, but
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Chetan Murthy: Delicious.
Anoniminous
Combat footage so Be Warned
How to Clear Trenches 101
This is good to see.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Anoniminous: Makes sense, intuitively, and lots of respect for the bravery of those carrying out this methodical purge. On a geeky note, I’ve been wondering why the smoke (for want of a better word) from grenades is so dark compared to other munitions.
bookworm139&
@40. It would make sense for the US to say they thought generals were working with Wagner whether they were or not. Hope it gives Putin more sleepless nights
BK in NJ
Being as ignorant as I proclaimed myself to be, I was unaware of the Pripit Marshes. I must admit I am more reassured by their existence than by proclamations that Russians are too stupid to think of false flag operations and distractions. Thanks, guys.
Carlo Graziani
@Omnes Omnibus: Yes.
Carlo Graziani
@Chetan Murthy:
This is worth playing on repeat, for the benefit of people who believe that Wagner is some independent force with agency that could survive disavowal by the Russian government.
Wagner quite simply ceases to exist without Russian MOD support. It’s just a bunch of mercs, with no independent access to weapons, ammo, transport, intelligence, communications, or even uniforms or food, for that matter.
To speak of Wagner as a force for Russia to reckon with, in Belarus or elsewhere, is to completely misunderstand its role as an invention by the Russian state as a means of projecting power semi-deniably. It is tantamount to a personalistic framing that takes seriously Prigozhin’s Telegram posturing while neglecting to acknowledge the actual sources of Wagner’s influence and power.
By the standards of Russian political maneuvering, Prigozhin is a cretin. What he wants or plans simply does not matter any more. His organization existed at Putin’s pleasure, and will be disposed of under the same terms. If you want an analogy among the Nazi potentates, he is not Goering, or Himmler, but rather Rudolph Hess: a romantic dabbler, far, far out of his depth in the shark pool.
Shalimar
@Bill Arnold: Are we sure Prigozhin wasn’t the oligarch running the assassination squads? Also, Putin’s ability to have people murdered might be limited for awhile by his distrust of his various lieutenants even if it wasn’t Prigozhin.
bjacques
Is it possible that Wagner has a future but Pringles does not? (Except as a figurehead, for awhile longer.) His rising popularity is a threat, though he won’t get another Bakhmut to outshine the army on the battlefield. It would make sense to approach his commanders, who are more capable than their Russian army counterparts, with an offer they can’t refuse. The loot from Africa and elsewhere continues to flow, but past Pringles, not through him. And now Dictator Combover has to babysit a thug with poor impulse control.
charon
https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1673981323898241024
snip
charon
New Yorker excerpts:
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/what-prigozhins-half-baked-coup-could-mean-for-putins-rule
Chotiner interview:
snip
snip
snip
charon
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1673997123543547906
https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1673981323898241024
jonas
If Lukashenko hadn’t stepped up to take credit for talking Putin down from a targeted assassination, Trump surely would have. These bloviating, autocratic assholes all think alike.
trucmat
@Carlo Graziani:
Based on your point that Wagner ceases to exist without MOD support and materiel isn’t the term mercenary being misapplied? They may pay personnel from a non government pot of money but Wagner and Prighozin are repaid in numerous ways by the Russian government.
The question then is calling Wagner mercenaries actually a Russian propaganda frame?
Carlo Graziani
@trucmat: I suppose that’s a terminological issue. Historically, I believe there are grey zones between fullly-private contract mercenary armies and state auxiliaries, The French Foreign Legion springs to mind. Private naval auxiliaries (Letter of Marque Ships) did piracy work on behalf of actual navies, although they were private investments and funded from their looting of enemy commerce.