Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

There is no right way to do the wrong thing.

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

“But what about the lurkers?”

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Republicans don’t lie to be believed, they lie to be repeated.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Days Since JD Vance Insulted Women Across America: Zero

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

And we’re all out of bubblegum.

Please don’t feed the bears.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. don’t touch it.”

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 491: Just a Brief Thursday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 491: Just a Brief Thursday Night Update

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I’m fried. It’s been a long week. So just a very brief update tonight.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Combating ecocide is one of the points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula, and we must implement each of its points – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

29 June 2023 – 22:25

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I am finishing the day in the Verkhovna Rada with a meeting with our Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk. We are working.

And now the report on this day, a busy day. A very long one.

The European Council meeting – it is already a tradition for Ukraine to be among the members of the European Union. The agenda is obvious: our defense in this war, our path to victory, support from our partners, our security support for them, for our entire Europe. Ukraine influences the strength of Europe. This is a fact. And this year, it is time to use this and other similar facts to strengthen unity in Europe, including by starting negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

The meeting with Mike Pence, the 48th Vice President of the United States, Senator… American support for Ukraine is vital – from all Americans, every American family, all U.S. civil society, all political leaders, Congress – both parties, of course, from President Biden. Thank you for this support!

I discussed with Mr. Pence our defense, our cooperation – from the very beginning, from the very first days between the Ukrainian and American nations. We talked about weapons, about the capabilities of our soldiers, about our common values.

The meeting with the members of the International Working Group on the Environmental Consequences of War – Greta Thunberg, Margot Wallström and others. We talked primarily about the Russian terrorist attack and ecocide at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and the work of our group, which will deal with issues directly related to the destructive impact of Russian aggression on nature. Combating ecocide is one of the points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula, and we must implement each of its points, all aspects of peace.

The conversation with the President of Guatemala. The Peace Formula, our cooperation with Latin America, assistance in demining, and most importantly, in establishing a Tribunal for Russian aggression.

The meeting with our business representatives – very important, very meaningful. I am grateful to them. We discussed how to stimulate economic activity now, in times of war. We talked about how to provide more protection for business, more interaction between the state and business. The first priority now is defense, and this is obvious. But the economy is also important.

I am grateful to everyone who works for Ukraine, for Ukrainians, who preserves and creates new jobs, who pays taxes and who is already preparing for our recovery, for the large-scale transformation program of Ukraine that we will definitely implement after our victory.

And, of course, our warriors, our defense. Today, in my address to the Chatham House community – one of the world’s leading British intellectual centers – I told that three more very important decrees have been prepared to award our warriors – 419 warriors. In total, over 49,000 Ukrainians have already been awarded state awards during the full-scale war!

I am grateful to each and every one who defends our country! I thank all those who are in combat now, who also gave us the best news today – the advancement of Ukrainian positions. Glory to you, our heroes! I thank everyone in the world who really helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

Velyka Novslika-Vuhledar:

Kreminna:

Bakhmut:

Ukrainska Pravda is reporting details from the paywalled Wall Street Journal article that the US is moving closer to sending ATACMS to Ukraine.

The United States came close to making a decision to provide Ukraine with ATACMS long-range tactical missile systems.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, referring to US and European officials, as European Pravda reported

Details: According to European and US officials, providing ATACMS to Ukraine still needs to be approved “at the highest level”.

But they have seen signs that the previously reluctant White House changed its position and came to understand “the urgent need to support Ukraine in its struggle in the coming weeks”.

As a senior Ukrainian defence official told The Wall Street Journal, in recent weeks “Kyiv has received positive signs that the US has changed its position on the ATACMS system”.

The army’s ATACMS tactical missile systems are surface-to-surface missiles with a range of about 300 kilometres, roughly four times the range of the missiles used by the mobile HIMARS systems that the US began sending to Ukraine last year.

I’m in complete agreement with The Kyiv Indepent‘s Illia Ponomarenko in regard to this news:

Here’s some more analysis regarding the fallout from the Prigozhin revolt from Tatiana Stanovaya, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Here’s the full text of her tweet:

There’s a lot of speculation around the situation with Prigozhin and Wagner, so let’s clarify what we know so far:

1️⃣ Prigozhin has been exiled to Belarus. The specifics of his future are currently under Putin’s consideration. Lukashenko has hinted at the temporary nature of Prigozhin’s stay, indicating a lack of interest to permanently host such individuals, but it’s likely that there will be no choice and he will have to. Without diving into speculation about the exact arrangements, the apparent aim is to neutralise Prigozhin, ‘lock him up’ outside of Russia, and the next steps will unfold with time.

2️⃣ Wagner is being separated from Prigozhin, signaling an end to Wagner as it was previously known. There will be a dissection of the organisation: some parts will be removed, some taken, and others dismantled. This concerns Africa and Syria too. The Foreign Ministry is already actively participating in this. Wagner’s involvement varied widely, so the Kremlin (read MFA, SVR and GRU) will vet Wagner’s operatives, their resources, and audit their presence, seeking whether a presence is necessary at all. We won’t see a Wagner 2.0, at least the way it was.

3️⃣ I don’t expect a purge in the style of Stalin; that’s not Putin’s approach. His perspective splits individuals into heroes, traitors (who face severe consequences), or lost souls who may be pardoned if they repent in time. Arrests are possible within this framework, but figures like Surovikin are less likely to be targeted. The challenge here is that Putin isn’t the same as before, and there are influential figures with their own agendas, like Sergei Shoigu, who may be interested in eliminating internal opposition. So final fate of Surovikin is unclear.

4️⃣ Prigozhin’s mutiny has underscored a potentially newer quality of the regime, which is not entirely new but is now more apparent. If Putin used to control the players, the power dynamics are now shifting. Given Putin’s detachment and distorted view of reality, the players are starting to manipulate Putin. While I was always very reluctant to perceive Putin as being manipulated, the effects of his 23-year reign, his ageing, and the pressures of war could be leading to this shift. Prigozhin’s struggle to reach the president and Shoigu’s attempt to tackle the Wagner issue are the outcomes of Putin’s inaction. This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class.

5️⃣ Lastly, we’re now witnessing the initial signs of an anti-elite trend in society. This shouldn’t be confused with anti-Putin or anti-war sentiments. People are becoming increasingly frustrated with an inefficient and bloated elite, either scoffing at them or expressing silent indignation. Although this trend may not have immediate political implications, it may pose potentially a significant challenge later.

Let’s that these one at a time.

  1. I do not disagree that the intention is to get Prigozhin out of Russia and keep him out, but that isn’t going to resolve the Prigozhin problem. As long as he and his supporters have access to their Telegram channels and are able to post new material and then others can boost it, amplify it, and push it onto other social media platforms, Prigozhin will be able to remain both in the public eye and relevant.
  2. It is still not really clear which parts of Wagner are being separated. What is clear is this was a fight between the GRU, which we know from Bellingcat reporting in 2020 combined with Putin’s admission by video earlier this week established Wagner PMC with Prigozhin as its head as a deniable front group – and the MOD and, most likely, the FSB. Stanovaya suggests that this includes Wagner’s activities in Africa and Syria as well as Ukraine and Russia. The problem is that there is no indication from the past 16 months that the MOD and the FSB is able to actually run any forms of operation at scale. If Stanovaya’s suggestion is correct, business may go on as usual with just a new chain of command. But it may also cause huge chunks of Russia’s geostrategic regional campaigns to collapse. If you – Shoigu, Gerasimov, the FSB – cannot actually effective manage an invasion in a neighboring country, that may not be an indicator of potential success in countries on continents thousands of miles away.
  3. My expectation is that if a move is made to actually eliminate Prigozhin and, perhaps, other senior Wagner PMC and Concord Management Services officials and personnel, that it will be through the freelancing of competing elements with the SVR and FSB. Buzzfeed News did a great job delineating and explaining all of this in its seven part series on Russia’s wetwork program.
  4. As we’ve covered a number of times since the genocidal re-invasion began, it is clear that Putin is not being provided with timely, accurate information he needs to know. Rather he is being provided what various officials think he wants to hear or what they think will advance their own agendas. So in that respect I agree with Stanovaya’s conclusion that this is now going on. Where we differ is that I’ve thought it has been going on for a very long time.
  5. I can’t speak to her fifth point other than to say its interesting and something to pay attention to.

Speaking of Bellingcat, they working with Scripps News Service have published a visual investigation into the battle damage from Prigozhin’s revolt:

Samual Bendett of the Center for Naval Analysis and the Center for a New American Security has posted an interesting thread on logistics problems in Russia’s drone production sector. First tweet from the thread, then a copied and pasted machine translation of the actual Russian language Telegram post, and then the rest from the Thread Reader App.

UAV Explorer
Forwarded from UAV developer
Approximately the same situation in the drone industry. If an official comes running to a team of developers or assemblers with a promise of support and a green light at all levels, the team is baptized and asks not to. Because the team knows that the official does not understand what to do next at all. He basically does not know how to organize production and what the “green light” should mean in practice. And also, why all of a sudden, before his appearance, the world was different …

As soon as work begins with him, he begins to strictly demand deadlines, but he cannot arrange payment for the work, and in general decide who will pay and how. Why does an autopilot developer need to pay 200 if the average for the region is 45?! Why can’t you hire an IT specialist “sites to order” to make a drone? After all, he set up Windows for us and is generally a very spherical fellow!

If the official is truly brilliant and was able to solve the previous issue, everything will run into an aunt in the accounting department, who will ask for an agreement with the Chinese and payment to the Savings Bank. And if they are not there, she does not know what to do and in general this is your problem, she is a busy person.

And even if you find an intermediary who, according to the overprice, will issue Chinese purchases in accordance with all the rules, you will run into the premises and workers, because from the available there will be a dilapidated fund in the outskirts, with rats in the basement.

This is a true story, by the way .

And that’s why those who really do something, refuse to help. They organize themselves, make their own products, find convenient areas and raw materials. At least two teams have gathered through our channel!
Volunteers collect money and take products to the front. The system is organized and operates in parallel with the state and beyond it. Yes, not without flaw and theft, but we don’t know how much that free old fund cost the budget, right? ;)

It’s no joke, but at least half of the intelligence of the entire front (mavics) is provided by private traders! Not thanks to, but in spite of the state with its customs and prohibitions at all levels!

There were personalized tanks and planes in the Second World War, but I don’t remember the type of equipment that civilian rear services would have provided entirely and on their own initiative to the front.

And those who are tied to this parallel system avoid contact with the gosukha.

And the state sees and understands this. He sees this as a threat (demonstration of someone else’s effectiveness) and a competitor. Therefore, the last few months have been diligently and methodically crushing the developers for themselves, where the developments are dying in the web of bureaucracy, and the developers are slaughtering this rotten business.

I talked a lot with those who “left”, and so there were very few who fled from the regime there. The bulk stupidly outgrew the surrounding management.

.

Telegram
MIG of Russia
Explaining everything with apathy is easier than digging a little deeper. There is just “us” and “they”. They have squabbles there. What’s the matter with us? We take seats in the auditorium, buy popcorn. Complete alienation of the people from power. Rallies on orders and for money. Nothing real…
2/ “If a Russian official comes running to a team of drone developers or assemblers with a promise of support and a “green light” at all levels, the team get very concerned and asks that official not to interfere with its work. Because…” 
3/ …”the team knows that this official does not understand what to do next. He basically does not know how to organize drone production and what the “green light” should mean in practice.” 
4/ “As soon as this team starts working with the official, he begins to demand strict deadlines, but he cannot arrange payment for the work and to decide who will pay for work and how. If the official is truly brilliant and was able to solve the previous (payment) issue…” 
5/ “…everything will still hinge on some (older woman) in accounting, who will ask for an agreement with the Chinese (for parts) and payment to Sber (Savings Bank). And if these payment arrangements don’t exist yet, she doesn’t know what to do and its not her problem.” 
6/ “And even if you find an intermediary who will issue Chinese purchases in accordance with all the rules, you will run into the issue with the building for work, which will be a dilapidated wreck on the (city/town) outskirts, with rats in the basement.” 
7/ “This is a true story, by the way. And that’s why those who really do something, refuse the help. They organize themselves, make their own products, find testing areas and raw materials. Volunteers collect money and take products to the front on their own.” 
8/ “The system is organized and operates in parallel with the state and beyond it. Sure, there are some flaws and theft, but still… More than half of ISR across the entire front is provided by private volunteers via DJI Mavics.” 
9/ “Not thanks to, but in spite of the state with its customs and prohibitions at all levels! And those who work in this parallel system avoid contact with the state, which sees and understands this. It sees this as a threat (demonstration of someone else’s effectiveness) and a… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
10/ “Therefore, for the past few months, the state (and MOD) has been diligently and methodically crushing such (small-scale) private enterprises, where drone/UAV developments are dying in the web of bureaucracy, and the developers are leaving this rotten business in the end.” 
12/ Sometimes its not the “heavy hand of the state” that interferes with these volunteers – sometimes its the private sector that does that, such as this story by “Project Archangel” talking about their drone center outside of Moscow. Key points below : https://t.co/JXGwURXqy7t.me/projectArchang…

13/ “In May, the Archangel volunteer project, which assembles FPV drones and trains pilots, approached the management of the Myachkovo airfield with a proposal to rent a two-story house on the territory of the airfield to train volunteer UAV pilots for Ukraine combat.”
14/ “Project “Archangel” is a non-commercial project, it exists with sponsor support and with the help of caring people, the volunteers are trained free of charge. Volunteers agreed in advance with airport manager to rent the building for 250,000 rubles a month.” 
15/ “Unexpectedly, a couple of days before the volunteers arrived, they volunteers were told the rent was cancelled without explanation. Through lengthy negotiations (thanks to the efforts of the Lyubertsy administration, and even representatives of the Ministry of Defense), the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
16/ “Because of this, the volunteers had to urgently rent a mini-hotel for 60 beds and pay daily for the services of a transport company to and from the airport. It would seem thats the end of the story: the UAV school operators got into the building, volunteers bought equipment,… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
17/ “But a few days after their arrival, the airfield authorities forbade the trainees to wear military camouflage and practice drone operation on the field that is on the airport territory. Volunteers also complied with this requirement.” 
18/ “But the sabotage by the Myachkovo airport administration did not end there: despite the official permission from the Federal Air Transport Agency for UAV flights the director’s order actually blocked the work of the FPV pilot school.” 
19/ Each of the trainees knows where he will serve (in Ukraine) after training. And in Ukraine combat, FPV drone operators are very welcome. It is extremely difficult to explain the behavior of the airfield management – perhaps Russian counterintelligence can look into this.

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets or videos, nor are there any new Ukrainian Army Cats & Dogs tweets. So here is some adjacent material from UAnimals:

Here’s the full text of the tweet above:

Have you ever adopted a pet? Share your stories!
Sasha and Sonik adopted “the wildest” dog from Hostomel’s shelter, and it turned out to be the best decision. At first, Lima the dog would only leave the room to eat and didn’t allow anyone to pet her. The new owners were patient, and now, after a couple of months, Lima is the happiest and smartest little dog they could wish for❤️

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    JPL

    Pence came out today stating that there is no room in the party for Putin apologists.   It might be time for him to leave the party, and create a new one.

  2. 2.

    lashonharangue

    @JPL: Trump doesn’t apologize for Putin. He praises him. So I guess that leaves an out for Pence.

  7. 7.

    FelonyGovt

    Adam, I wanted to thank you for your dedication in doing these every day, even on days you’re exhausted, not feeling well, etc. It’s very much appreciated.

  10. 10.

    oldster

    “Why can’t you hire an IT specialist “sites to order” to make a drone? After all, he set up Windows for us and is generally a very spherical fellow!”

    That last part made me laugh. I assume that it translates some ruzzian idiom like our “a square guy” meaning an upstanding trustworthy person?

    But I have a better chance of being generally a very spherical fellow….

    Oh, and more to the point: I am delighted to hear of intractable bureaucratic hurdles in ruzzia. Let them choke on their own corruption. Confusion to our enemies!

  11. 11.

    Geminid

    @JPL: Chris Christie is also slamming Russia supporters in the party, and naming names: Trump and DeSantis. A couple days ago a Florida Politics article reported that Christie had accused Trump and DeSantis of “trying to give away” Ukraine.

    A Reuters/Ipsos poll released yesterday found that 56% of Republicans favored the US arming Ukraine (Democrats were st 89%, Independents at 57%).

    Foreign policy issues typically are not so salient among voters as domestic, but this still could be a good line of attack for Christie. He’s not going to win the nomination, but he’ll cut Trump and DeSantis up some on this issue.

  13. 13.

    Calouste

    @sab: Pence might be pretty dim, but even he can grasp the meaning of a poll that shows the majority of GOP voters supporting Ukraine.

  14. 14.

    Geminid

    Daniel Foubert (@d_foubert) posted a picture of M1 Abrams tanks lined up at a port in Poland with the text:

    .  Our first Abrams tanks arrived. 350 ordered (+1000 South Korean tanks).

    Don’t ask what they are for.

    @d_foubert June 29 2022

  15. 15.

    Geminid

    @patrick II: I guess Christie has a chance. I discount it though because he is alienating Trump supporters and he doesn’t care. I can see him winning pluralities in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic, but I don’t think he’ll have “legs” south or west of there, except maybe in California.

  16. 16.

    sab

    @Calouste: Thank God for that polling. The idea of even  Republicans being pro-Putin because Trump is has horrified me for years. Possibly that tide is turning. I will never let a Republican even pat my dog again, but I want to give them a little space to return to behavior that doesn’t get you them sent to the Hague.

    ETA to clarify.

  17. 17.

    Andrya

    @Calouste:   I would never vote for Pence in a million years, but he put his life on the line to defend American democracy on Jan 6.  And now this (going against Republican support for russia).   Credit where credit is due-  although wrong about everything else, Pence has shown himself to be an honorable man.

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Andrya: *grin* people of good faith can disagree on whether Pence is an honorable man.  I’ll certainly agree that Dan Quayle is an honorable  man.

  19. 19.

    patrick II

    @Geminid: ​
     
    If MAGA live or die is 50% of Republicans that will be split up if Trump has to leave or his campaign just craters. That leaves 50% with Christie the only person presently campaigning to capture that group.

  20. 20.

    Jinchi

    @sab: The idea of even Republicans being pro-Putin because Trump is has horrified me for years.

    Republicans were edging pro-Putin well before Trump. They were already drooling over shirtless Putin pics back in the Obama years.

     

    He put a tremendous investment cultivating the right wing and when TFG came along, all the people were in place to staff a Russia-friendly administration.

  22. 22.

    Geminid

    @patrick II: Anything’s possible, I guess. It seems to me though that Christie will have a broader problem than with just Trump supporters. Political evangelicals and more secular radicals have the upper hand in most states, and they will likely find Christie unnacceptable.

    They would probably prefer DeSantis. He may be a crappy candidate, but he’s one of them. And even if 57% of Republicans favor military aid to Ukraine, that question might rank 3rd or 4th on many Republican primary voters’ list.

    I think the issue of Ukraine will hurt Republicans some in the general election, though.

  23. 23.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Geminid: I don’t see Christie showing the MAGAts that he hates the same people they do.  At least DeathsAnus, inept buffoon that he is, punches that ticket.

  24. 24.

    Sebastian

    There are reports that Ukraine has made significant advances south of Bakhmut and that a Russian VDV unit was surrounded and surrendered.

  26. 26.

    Will

    @Jinchi: This fascination with shirtless Putin was not something I ever understood. For a party that is so scared of the gays, fawning over a fellow shirtless man seemed pretty sus.

    Some idiots at a competitor in town got fired for putting his shirtless pic on the pc monitor behind a female analyst and making white power gestures while she was on live tv at Bloomberg. The sheer idiocy. I remember being at my desk and leaning back in my chair and mouthing “what the fuck” as I watched those idiots on one of the big screens.

    That was after Trump was elected but it was something I was aware of because as you said they’ve been fawning for some time.

  30. 30.

    Betty

    @JPL: I was pleasantly surprised at how strong Pence’s support for Ukraine was as he discussed his visit with Erin Burnett on CNN. No sign of the Trump toadie.

  31. 31.

    Betty

    Since you declared this an open thread, I wanted to let you know that your friend, Rick Coplen, is running a much more serious campaign against Scott Perry this time. He has brought together an impressive group of supporters and is doing much more outreach and fundraising than last time. Hoping for a good outcome.

  32. 32.

    Tony G

    The Wagner Group revolt destroyed about a half-dozen Russian helicopters, thereby killing about a dozen Russian crewmen — and Putin allowed the Wagner Group to get away with impunity, because he’s too weak to do otherwise.  Putin’s only asset has been his illusion of “strength” — a now that has been revealed to have been an illusion.  This has to hurt him sooner or later.

  33. 33.

    Tony G

    @Will: Some percentage — probably a sizable percentage — of men who obsess over gays are closeted gay men themselves.

  34. 34.

    Will

    I follow a lot of these folks on Twitter thanks to Adam and others that have been posting here. Has anyone noticed the new trolls trying to drive a new narrative that US doesn’t want Ukraine to win the war? It’s not something new, but the number of them saying it is new.

  37. 37.

    laura

    Thank you for these dense and informative posts – I rarely comment because it’s so far from my personal experience or area of knowledge and expertise. It’s the human experience aspect- the people and their daily lives  with their communities their pets and children and natural surroundings that just guts me on the daily. Your stamina in bearing witness and informing- like that of Anne Laurie’s Covid post is a rare act of journalism that connects the people and things in a tangible and relatable way that upsets the divide and conquer narrative. Again, many thanks.

  41. 41.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: Denys Davydov covered this yesterday, IIRC.  On the map, the encirclement was pretty small beer.  The thing that made it interesting was that the VDV company lost radio contact with their support, and the UA forces took advantage of that in the moment, surrounded them and forced them to surrender.  But the actual territory was very small, and they’re still nowhere near encircling Klischiivka (sp?)  Davydov today discussed that direction also: they’re making slow progress, and that’s really all.

  42. 42.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Chetan Murthy:   Another good channel is:

    https://www.youtube.com/@ATPGeo/videos

    He gives detailed compilations of activity, combining pro-Russian and pro-Ukranian sources.  Twitter, telegram, ISW, etc to cross verify (with Geolocation when possible) the reports.  Usually there are 2 posts every day, a Frontline Update and an Update Extra for war adjacent info.

    Sometimes too much info for my short attention span.

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: We’re working from very incomplete information. However, as always, the objective is not territory so much as breaking the Russian army’s orderly resistance. If that is accomplished, the territorial gains follow.

  45. 45.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Carlo Graziani: i seem to remember that you crane did not want these merely to rain on Russian soldiers, but to take apart and use the bomblets to drop from drones on tanks.  I remember something about them being better than grenades for this task.  I could be misremembering.

  46. 46.

    Sebastian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    It appears the Ukrainians are fighting smart to avoid losses. The Russians have, for some weird reason, decided to not fall back to their prepared defense lines but to counterattack, allowing the Ukrainians to kill them in open field battles.

    <insert “we are lucky they are so stupid” jpg>

  47. 47.

    Chetan Murthy

    Awwwww yeah: https://twitter.com/vx_herm1t/status/1674366231388749826

    PMC Wagner has announced that they have taken down the satellite provider Dozor-Teleport and damaged user terminals. Their rivalry with the RU MoD is manifesting in an unusual way. This is the second major satellite provider breach after Viasat

    According to monitoring, Dozor is still down, and among their clients are Northern Fleet ships, a nuclear power plant, military units of the Ministry of Defense and the FSB in very remote locations. It is nice to see russians fighting amongst themselves.

  48. 48.

    Shalimar

    @Chetan Murthy: This is my take on Pence too.  He saw he was never going to be president himself if he made Trump dictator-for-life, so he took the path that best served his own ambition.   And continued to do that in all of his appeals to Trump voters afterwards.  That his choice on January 6th was also the only choice that was good for our democracy is incidental.  Pence is every bit the narcissistic piece of shit that Trump is.

  49. 49.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Shalimar:

    That his choice on January 6th was also the only choice that was good for our democracy is incidental.

    You are *still* kinder to him than I.  I believe firmly that if he could have found a shred of a legal leg to stand on, a mere piece of dry kindling to use for support, he’d have gone along with TFG’s demands.  But after talking with Quayle (and, IIRC, Luttig), he realized that there was no legal way he could accede to TFG’s demands, and figuring that the entire venture would fail, he simply didn’t want to get caught holding the bag.

    If he could have found a way to do it that was legal, he’d have gone along with it and destroyed our Republic.  That, I believe, is the meaning of the reported conversations with Quayle.

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Chetan Murthy: I think he exhibited a peculiar kind of cowardice bound up with his socialization as a classic American politician.

    In part IV of The Resumption of History, I wrote this:

    Mike Pence—Mike Pence!—the utter mediocrity plucked from a dead-end political career in Indiana who probably couldn’t name three signers of the Constitution if there were a free corn dog in it for him; whose loyalty to Trump led him to dutifully allow his boss humiliate him in new ways each week of his term as Vice President; that Mike Pence could not bring himself to sign off on the farcical plot abstain from his constitutional duty to certify the election results. This notorious moral coward was more scared of being busted for violating the Constitution than he was of Donald Trump and his mob of latter-day brownshirts!.

    There is still a certain respect for institutions and regard for law that most Americans unconsciously subscribe to, even when they speak and act in ways that appear to contradict that respect. That’s why I believe that the January 6 clownshow was doomed no matter what happened in the Capitol: Pence’s actions were just the tip of the iceberg. Had he gone along, I believe that the entire Federal government, civilian and military, would have revolted against Trump. To do otherwise would have made most civil servants and military officers sick to their stomachs. We know now that even Trump-appointed staffers banded together as “Team Sane” to prevent “Team Crazy” from taking over the White House. Pence was just another manifestation of the same effect.

    I find it kind of comforting: at least for now, there are still the kind of guard rails capable of preventing worst-case constitutional outcomes that are common in other places, built-in to the heads of most of our citizens. Let’s hope those guard rails do not become eroded.

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