(Image by NEIVANMADE)
It was a very long week for me. And to top it all off, Twitter is still all fuqed up. I’ve got a workaround, but I’m going to keep this brief(ish).
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Ukraine and Ukrainians are much stronger than anyone thinks about us – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
30 June 2023 – 19:45
Dear Ukrainians, good health to you!
I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting today – a long and very detailed one devoted to several issues. The commanders reported both on the general defense situation, and the specific directions of our defense and our offensive actions.
During this day, we also have made progress in all directions of our active actions.
We considered the supply of rounds for artillery – for the east, for the south – at the Staff meeting. And although our work with partners to receive rounds for Ukrainian soldiers is already at our best capacity, we will make it even more active. Strengthening our artillery is an obvious priority, and all foreign affairs specialists received additional tasks today.
The situation in the north, in particular, on the territory of Belarus, was considered separately. Our intelligence reported today – Defense Intelligence, foreign intelligence, border guards intelligence. The SSU chief reported. We very carefully analyze every fact and any prospects in all directions.
By the decision of the Staff, Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny and General Naev were instructed to strengthen the northern direction – to guarantee peace. Appropriate deadlines are set.
Today, I thank Denmark and personally Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen for the new defense package for Ukraine. Artillery rounds, air defense missiles, demining equipment… Thank you!
I also held several meaningful preparatory meetings today regarding the internal context in our state, relevant internal measures, and international measures – an extremely important period of foreign policy is beginning. The work in order to expand peace through expanding our security capabilities, our alliances and cooperation. The following weeks will be extremely active, and the positions of our state are clearly defined, all our officials know what to do.
And one more.
Today is the first anniversary of the liberation of Snake Island from the Russian invaders. It is one of our major victories. Remember, last year, in the spring, no one expected from Ukraine that we would be able to implement, in particular, this fundamental defense task – to provide security to Snake Island, and therefore to a significant part of the Black Sea water area. But our soldiers did it. Russian terrorists needed Snake Island to destroy the entire south of our country, our beautiful Odesa and other cities. Our soldiers stopped them and drove them out of Snake Island.
Ukraine and Ukrainians are much stronger than anyone thinks about us. Sometimes, stronger than we are used to thinking about ourselves. Thanks to all that our people manage to do in the confrontation with Russian terrorists, we are revealing to the whole world and to ourselves a new Ukrainian strength – a real Ukrainian strength. The strength that we will never lose and that will always be a pillar of the security of the free world.
I am grateful to everyone who freed Snake Island! Defense Intelligence, together with other elements of the Defense and Security Forces of our country, conducted this operation. Defense Intelligence and the SSU Alpha special unit, the Naval Forces and the army aviation of the Ground Forces Command, the Air Force aviation and our strong border guards. Thank you!
And we will always remember our heroes, our soldiers, who gave their lives for the sake of this Ukrainian victory. Among those whose names can now be mentioned… Defense Intelligence fighters – Ruslan Popov, Hero of Ukraine, captain of the 1st rank; Oleh Zaitsev, Hero of Ukraine, junior lieutenant; Vitaliy Ihnatenko, Hero of Ukraine, soldier. SSU Alpha fighters – Volodymyr Kyseliov, Hero of Ukraine, captain; Oleksandr Krykunenko, Hero of Ukraine, major. Soldiers of the Navy – Ihor Bedzai, Hero of Ukraine, colonel; as well as Mykhailo Zaremba, major; Serhiy Muschytsky, captain; Yuriy Pyroh, staff sergeant. Eternal memory!
Eternal memory and glory to all those who gave their lives so that our beautiful Ukraine would live!
Glory to Ukraine!
General Zaluzhny gave an interview to The Washington Post. Here are some excerpts:
KYIV, Ukraine — For Ukraine’s counteroffensive to progress faster, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the top officer in Ukraine’s armed forces, says he needs more — of every weapon. And he is telling anyone who will listen, including his American counterpart Gen. Mark A. Milley as recently as Wednesday, that he needs those resources now.
In a rare, wide-ranging interview with The Washington Post, Zaluzhny expressed frustration that while his biggest Western backers would never launch an offensive without air superiority, Ukraine still has not received modern fighter jets but is expected to rapidly take back territory from the occupying Russians. American-made F-16s, promised only recently, are not likely to arrive until the fall — in a best-case scenario.
His troops also should be firing at least as many artillery shells as their enemy, Zaluzhny said, but have been outshot tenfold at times because of limited resources.
So it “pisses me off,” Zaluzhny said, when he hears that Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in the country’s east and south has started slower than expected — an opinion publicly expressed by Western officials and military analysts and also by President Volodymyr Zelensky, though Zaluzhny was not referring to Zelensky. His troops have gained some ground — even if it’s just 500 meters — every day, he said.
“This is not a show,” Zaluzhny said Wednesday in his office at Ukraine’s General Staff headquarters. “It’s not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood.”
“Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all,” he added. “But they are being carried out. Yes, maybe not as fast as the participants in the show, the observers, would like, but that is their problem.”
The questions that weigh on him daily: When will Ukraine’s Western partners provide the arms he needs, particularly more ammunition and the F-16s? And how can he be expected to get the job done without them?
Zaluzhny said he relays his concerns to Milley, whom he has grown to deeply admire and considers a friend, several times per week in conversations that can last hours. “He shares them absolutely. And I think he can help me get rid of those worries,” Zaluzhny said, adding that he told Milley on Wednesday how many more artillery shells he needs per month.
In these conversations, Zaluzhny is frank about the consequences: “We have an agreement: 24/7, we’re in touch. So, sometimes I can call up and say, ‘If I don’t get 100,000 shells in a week, 1,000 people will die. Step into my shoes,’” he said.
But “it’s not Milley who decides whether we get planes or not,” Zaluzhny said. “It’s just that while that decision is being made, in the obvious situation, a lot of people die every day — a lot. Just because no decision has been made yet.”
While F-16s will eventually arrive, following President Biden’s decision in May to back an international plan to train Ukrainian pilots and send the planes, Ukraine’s strained ammunition resources pose a different challenge. In February, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the “current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production.” That means the shells Zaluzhny said he needs could become even scarcer the longer the war lasts.
But Zaluzhny also pointed to NATO forces’ own doctrine — which parallels Russia’s, he said — that calls for air superiority before launching ground-based deep-reaching operations.
“And Ukraine, moving to offensive operations, should follow which doctrine?” Zaluzhny said. “NATO’s? The Russian Federation’s? Or is that none of your business? ‘You have your own doctrine. You have tanks, you have some cannons, you have some [fighting vehicles]. You can do it.’ What is that?”
In his command post, Zaluzhny has a screen that shows him everything in the air at any given moment — the aviation from NATO countries at Ukraine’s western border, his own planes in the sky over Ukraine, and Russia’s on the eastern edges. “Let’s just say the number of aircraft that are on duty near our western borders is twice as much as the number of Russian aircraft devastating our positions. Why can’t we take at least a third of it from there and move it here?” Zaluzhny asked.
Because Russia’s more modern fleet of Su-35s have a far superior radar and missile range, Ukraine’s older jets cannot compete. Troops on the ground are easily targeted as a result.
“Nobody is saying that tomorrow we should rearm and get 120 planes,” Zaluzhny said. “Why? I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough. But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation. It’s like we’d go on the offensive with bows and arrows now, and everyone would say, ‘Are you crazy?’ But with this question, ‘No, no.’”
If anyone thinks that Ukraine’s counteroffensive got a lucky boost last weekend when Wagner chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin led a mutiny of mercenary forces on an assault toward Moscow before halting the advance, Zaluzhny is not so sure. Prigozhin’s Wagner forces had already exited the front line, after claiming the eastern city of Bakhmut a month ago, Zaluzhny said, so there was no noticeable change on the battlefield as the rebellion took place.
“We didn’t feel that their defense got weaker somewhere or anything,” he said.
One worst-case scenario Zaluzhny must consider is the threat that Putin might deploy a nuclear weapon. And Zelensky warned last week that Ukrainian intelligence received information that Russian forces were preparing a “terrorist act with the release of radiation” at the occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, Europe’s largest atomic power station.
Does that give Zaluzhny pause from trying to retake control of the plant as part of Ukraine’s counteroffensive?
“It doesn’t stop me at all,” Zaluzhny said. “We are doing our job. All these signals come from outside for some reason: ‘Be afraid of a nuclear strike.’ Well, should we give up?”
More at the link!
. @ZelenskyyUa
With Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s, freedom will become irresistible, and the terrorist state will not have a chance in our skies.🎥@United24media pic.twitter.com/xL3gXBVpvI
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 30, 2023
Donetsk:
Another school destroyed by russians in Donetsk region
Two women – a bookkeeper and a teacher – were killed. Six civilians were injured.📷 @GP_ pic.twitter.com/HIQW9UHn6C
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 30, 2023
Berdyansk:
/2. “As a result of a successful strike
By the Defense Forces in the morning of 06/30/2023 the headquarters/base and warehouse with fuel and lubricants of the occupiers were targeted, in the suburbs of the temporarily occupied Berdyansk.”https://t.co/qJTKzgGXAl pic.twitter.com/gOTNgdqWuR— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 30, 2023
/4. The first fragments of the Storm Shadow missile shown by Russians, which really look like the wreckage of a downed/fallen missile. As claimed somewhere near Berdyansk after today’s morning strikes. pic.twitter.com/oMIFhqljLz
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 30, 2023
With additional imagery of the remains and some informed insights (h/t @blueboy1969) it appears that the missile functioned properly, in the follow through bomb mode.
However, whether it hit the target is unclear. pic.twitter.com/6sxHQtFnPX
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) June 30, 2023
Here’s a bit of update on the Prigozhin situation.
Prigozhin's media empire is shutting down.
Director Evgeny Zubarev says the infamous troll farm had existed since 2009 and confirms the many investigations into it were correct:
"It was important to discredit opposition journalists. They were trying to destroy the country!" pic.twitter.com/taOhZIxYRW
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 30, 2023
Notice the date? 2009! How many times have I written here that Russia began this largely non-lethal and non-kinetic World War at least sometime between 2011 and 2014 and possible even before?
We now return you to your regularly scheduled update analysis:
Given the central role of the troll farms, as well as the rest of the media properties that Prigozhin owns through his Patriot Media Group and that he uses on behalf of Putin’s influence strategy all over the world, I find it hard to believe that they’re shutting down. I think it is far more likely that they’ll either have all their names changed and keep operating or that the MOD and/or FSB will scarf them up and try to run them. Given that nothing the MOD or FSB has run since the start of Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine has gone properly, if it’s the latter then Russia’s foreign and national security policy and strategy are going to go through some things.
Here’s a bit more from Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.
What distinguishes the current situation is Putin's progressive loss of initiative in dealing with domestic issues. His heightened emotional state makes him more susceptible to manipulation. We appear to be observing a new phase in Putin's regime, where his entourage is becoming… https://t.co/GrlTQDDJj5
— Tatiana Stanovaya (@Stanovaya) June 30, 2023
Here’s the full text of Stanovaya’s tweet (that she was quote tweeting):
The Reasons Why I Believe a Major Purge Over #Prigozhin’s Mutiny is Unlikely to Occur:
1️⃣ Consider #Putin’s Emotional State: Recently, his public appearances have depicted an inexplicable joy bordering on euphoria, a stark departure from his usual demeanor. This could be connected to the narrative his entourage has crafted, emphasizing the universal support he receives from the elites and the immense love he enjoys from the people. An illustrative case in point is his “march to the people” in Derbent. Therefore, given the perceived atmosphere of universal affection, why would there be a need for repression? Yes, a traitor emerged and was exiled to Belarus, but the remaining issues will be investigated accordingly, perhaps without the expected crackdown.
2️⃣ Putin’s View of #Surovikin: Regardless of his relationship with Prigozhin, Surovikin has always been regarded highly by Putin. Despite some cooling of their relationship and curtailed access to Putin since last December, he is not viewed as a traitor, even if he made mistakes or misstepped. It would require incontrovertible evidence to warrant an arrest, thereby diminishing the likelihood of severe reprisals.
3️⃣ Divergent Views of Putin and #Shoigu: It’s important to separate Putin’s sentiment (his belief that he controls the situation) from Shoigu’s agenda. For Shoigu, the current circumstances offer an opportunity to deal with the internal “opposition,” but this does not necessarily imply purges and arrests. Despite the ridicule and critics he has been receiving throughout the war, Shoigu is one of Russia’s most seasoned and adept politicians, having risen to prominence when Putin was just beginning his political career. Consequently, he may tread more carefully than anticipated.
Nonetheless, what distinguishes the current situation is Putin’s progressive loss of initiative in dealing with domestic issues. His heightened emotional state makes him more susceptible to manipulation. We appear to be observing a new phase in Putin’s regime, where his entourage is becoming more actively involved in shaping its trajectory.
Politico has the explanation for why the US’s, NATO’s, the EU and many of the EU member states policies towards Russia consistently fail and leave us all vulnerable!
The recent attempted mutiny in Russia proved that no matter how much many world leaders hate Vladimir Putin, they don’t want the Russian president suddenly ousted.
The instability that could follow isn’t worth the risk.
The possibility of post-Putin chaos in Russia is one key factor many countries — from adversaries such as the United States to Russia partners such as China — considered as they calibrated their reactions to mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion against Moscow.
It’s a tricky calculation, especially for the United States.
The Biden administration has taken many steps, including imposing economic sanctions, that arguably are weakening Putin in the wake of his war on Ukraine. But Washington has repeatedly insisted it does not back regime change in Russia, a fellow nuclear power.
At the moment, the lack of a clear successor, or the possibility of a violent warlord such as Prigozhin taking charge, leaves too many uncomfortable variables to openly root for a Putin overthrow, according to two current U.S. officials, two foreign officials and one former U.S. official.
“The United States has no interest in instability inside Russia that has the potential to spill over into Europe,” said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official who specializes in Russia and autocracies. “Regime change that occurs through a chaotic and violent process is also the most likely to produce another authoritarian leader, which could possibly be worse than Putin.”
Two U.S. officials who deal with Russia policy said the Biden administration considered questions about the stability of the Russian state as it crafted its response to last weekend’s brief mutiny.
While it’s rare for the United States to call for regime change in another country, the Biden administration also wants to be extra careful not to feed Putin’s long-standing narrative that America is behind efforts to oust him or, for that matter, spur a disorderly downfall.
“Instability anywhere has costs — costs to the citizens of that country, to the region. In a place like Russia, it could have global implications,” said one of the U.S. officials, who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic decisions. “Would Russian institutions be resilient if Putin were to be gone from the picture? Maybe. Probably. But it’s not a sure thing.”
More at the link!
The sun would never rise again, yes. https://t.co/x4Dr53XfOn
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) June 30, 2023
There are ways to plan to manage and mitigate this problem set rather than letting the fear of it turn it into a wicked problem that one is so terrified of that it forces an artificial limitation of our strategic options. There are strategies that could be devised to turn threat into challenge and challenge into opportunity. We came up with the Marshall Plan for Germany, which allowed us to manage the chaos that would have otherwise followed the fall of Hitler. Which means that we could do it again. If only we had the will. But we don’t. Instead we use fear as an excuse. Unfortunately, the Ukrainians do not have the luxury of our fear! Neither do the occupied Georgians. Nor the Syrians. Nor the citizens of the states in the Sahel. Etc, etc, etc.
I’m going to leave it there before I say something that hurts someone’s feelings.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First, some Patron adjacent material:
The most important thing you understand about war is to treasure every moment. pic.twitter.com/ewowYXHhBV
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 30, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Там стііільки всього нового! Лінк у шапці профілю✨
The caption machine translates as:
There are so many new things there! Link in the profile header ✨
Open thread!
trollhattan
Thanks Adam! These posts are doubly important now that Twitter is fvcked up and can’t be viewed in browsers. I must have three-dozen Ukraine-related bookmarked sites. Whether my productivity has increased is unknown.
pacem appellant
Stay off Twitter. Huffing that corpse is bad for your health!
Alison Rose
That interview with Zaluzhny is terrific. I appreciate how blunt he is and doing so in a way that really can’t be countered, at least not by anyone approaching it in good faith. This especially struck me:
The way some people — randos online as well as some commentators — have been kind of snippy about the counteroffensive not being this one massive bulldozing over a single week where the orcs get the shit kicked out of them nine ways to Sunday in every hotspot is aggravating to me, so I can only begin to imagine how maddening it is for those on the ground. They’re not being fucking lazy or something! And the “show” aspect feels reminiscent of the early days of the full-scale invasion, with people sharing memes of tractors and the smoking dude carrying the landmine in his hands and stuff. There was a sense that some people thought they were watching a video game or a movie, and it feels like that’s coming back around. Just frustrating.
This photo made me sniffle: The staff of a pizzeria destroyed by a Russian missile attack on Kramatorsk came to say goodbye to their killed colleagues. Heartbreaking.
Thank you as always, Adam. I hope next week is less crummy for you. (For all of us!)
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: Try using the Nitter extension for your browser. Though it doesn’t appear to be working right now on MacOs.
Adam L Silverman
@Alison Rose: Just posted this up top below Zaluzhny’s interview:
Gin & Tonic
@pacem appellant: Many, many people actually on the ground in Ukraine have no better current alternative.
Gin & Tonic
I do not for one second believe that the person pictured in the R.Politik Tweet up above is actually Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.
Carlo Graziani
@Stanovaya:
For $0.02: I would say that there is a clear and recognizable moment in the war when Putin “lost initiative,” and it’s not the Prigozhin putsch. It’ the time last fall where the war was going so badly for Russia that Putin was forced (possibly “coerced” is a better term) to abandon his previously steadfast opposition to mass mobilization, which he regarded as a danger to the appearance of social stability that he prizes so highly.
He did not do that of his own volition, but because of widespread panic among the Siloviki. If Stanovaya is correct, and Putin is now being manipulated by others controlling his information diet and environment, mobilization was certainly the moment when that process began.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: It’s the Disney animatronic one from the Hall of Presidents.
Alison Rose
@Adam L Silverman: I appreciate videos like this, as someone who doesn’t know anything about the different types of jets. I wonder how things would look now if we’d given them F-16s in the early days…
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: I was gonna say, it’s giving me Face/Off vibes. Plus the thought of putin anywhere near a child is terrifying.
different-church-lady
@Adam L Silverman: Always_Has_Been.meme
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman: Same in Windows–worked briefly then it looks like Twitter countered it.
I have confidence there are nerds > Elon’s nerds who will figure a workaround.
Chetan Murthy
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve been using nitter.net to read Josh Marshall’s Ukraine twitter lists for many months. This morning, they stopped working. I think that’s Lone Skum’s attempt to force all readers to get Twitter accounts. Yeah, rotsa ruck with that, Melon Suk.
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: You know, I hadn’t studied that picture closely, but now that I have I think you may be on to something. The physical resemblance to Putin is very good, but the facial expression is a mixture of contentment and vulnerability that lacks any sign of aggression. That is not how Putin presents publicly, even when he’s drunk. It’s too dangerous for a Capo di tutti i capi to appear that way.
Dorothy A. Winsor
I’m not sure if this is the right thread, but I thought people might be interested.
My zumba teacher is Russian. Her mother and sister are still in Moscow. I asked this morning how they were doing, and she said more or less fine. She also said that everyone’s savings accounts had been frozen since May. They have access to their checking accounts and get the interest from savings, but can’t get to the savings themselves. They have occasional months when they have very little money, and it’s hard to send it, of course. So they’re stuck there.
Adam L Silverman
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It is the right thread!
Spanky
@Gin & Tonic: Glad it’s not just me.
Chetan Murthy
@Dorothy A. Winsor:
I remember Adam Tooze writing in Wages of Destruction about the financial machinations of the Nazis. This was one of the steps they took to convert savings to the war effort. Another step was to forcibly convert all savings into “war bonds” payable after the end of the war. They did the same with all manner of financial assets of firms, too. This was (of course) a big problem for conducting business, so you had to be connected to get back your Reichsmarks (or shudder, your foreign currency assets) and …. well, that was part of the downward spiral of the economy.
Another Scott
Politico says:
[jen-psaki] Who are these ‘many countries’?[/jen-psaki]
Why would anyone want “chaos” in any country?
Politico lives to twist things. The quoted stuff above is a “clouds and shadows” framing in the story, with the implication that resolute leaders would Act and Solve The Problem.
I’m sure lots and lots of people, on both sides of the Potomac, and elsewhere, are updating contingency plans and options if things change suddenly in VVP’s regime. That doesn’t mean they really, really want to jump into russia’s internal political conflicts.
We’ll see!
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
oldster
Tatiana Stanovaya has more knowledge of Russia in her nail-parings than I do in my whole body, but I still wonder whether she is missing the point in Putin’s “inexplicable joy bordering on euphoria.”
The simplest explanation for it is: that’s not Putin.
He is still bunkered up somewhere feeling neither joy nor euphoria, and this is one of his doubles, enjoying a day out.
Or perhaps TS is cunning enough that she is hinting at this very possibility without committing herself to it? “Inexplicable” is a good word for subtly raising doubts.
Ksmiami
@Dorothy A. Winsor: boo fucking hoo. Sorry I have zero sympathy for Russians Especially Muscovites.
Carlo Graziani
@Ksmiami: Get some manners.
The Moar You Know
Russia isn’t going to shut down the troll farms. Why on earth would they? They work well enough to throw an American election.
zhena gogolia
That’s weird. I never heard of him until recently. I can’t say I’m a russo-political-junkie, but I usually at least hear the names of the major players.
zhena gogolia
@Gin & Tonic: The nose is wrong, isn’t it?
Chetan Murthy
@zhena gogolia: Apparently Shoigu was appointed to run an “emergency situations” ministry in 1991, and this was Russia’s way of having a military force, at a time when all military forces were still controlled by the USSR. He’s a survivor, and you’re right that we didn’t see his name come up, b/c apparently he’s not the kind to hog the spotlight, and that has been part of how he’s managed to survive literally since 1991 at the national level of politics. I mean …. three decades, wowsers, right?
zhena gogolia
The technician at the ophthamologist’s today asked me what was going on in Russia. She got an earful, but not much illumination, I’m afraid, as I don’t fucking know.
zhena gogolia
@Chetan Murthy: Aha, a ЧП director. Whatever that means.
ETA: Sorry, МЧС 😄
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: Huh. Now that you say it, yeah, it does look a bit wider. I suppose that could be a trick of the odd lighting, but the whole face is giving me an uncanny valley feeling.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: His face got weird a long time ago, thanks to what I assume is a lot of plastic surgery / Botox, but this really looks structural.
oldster
@Ksmiami:
I did not read Dorothy W’s post as a solicitation for our sympathy — she was not asking us to feel sorry for them.
She was just adding a data point, and an interesting one, so that we can better assess the state of civilian life in the enemy economy.
People who sympathize with ruzzia’s invasion are not likely to read Adam’s threads….
oldster
@zhena gogolia:
Perhaps botox, but his face — even the real VVP’s face — also looks like it shows Cushing’s syndrome from excess cortisol usage. He might be taking cortisol for a variety of ailments genuine or imagined, and this would be a side effect.
zhena gogolia
@oldster: That was how I read it. But however it was meant, ksimiami was out of line as usual.
Chetan Murthy
@oldster: That’s how I took Dorothy W’s post, too, and I appreciated it. We’re all looking for information, and this is information.
zhena gogolia
@Alison Rose: I looked at it again. The eyes almost fool you, but both the nose and mouth are wrong.
japa21
@zhena gogolia: Emphasis on “as usual”.
Ksmiami
@zhena gogolia: Sounds like the teacher’s family is asking for sympathy… nope, sorry, hope they really feel the effects of being a thug nation. Maybe they can try not having bad government that is a threat to the globe.
MagdaInBlack
@Ksmiami: Oh just stop.
Martin
Adam, thoughts on France right now? Looks like protests have spread to Belgium.
Ivan X
@Ksmiami: You seem nice.
Chetan Murthy
@Ksmiami: It’s not necessary to be impolite to Dorothy W, an esteemed fully-paid-up member of the jackaltariat, y’know?
oldster
@Ksmiami:
Who do you hope to communicate with here?
If you want to tell the teacher’s family that you do not sympathize with them, then you’ll need to find their email or phone number.
If you want to tell *us* that you do not sympathize with them, then…why? To show your opposition to the ruzzian invasion? We all oppose the ruzzian invasion. To show how committed you are to the Ukrainian cause? Perhaps you should try volunteering or donating instead. To signal your implacable toughness? I’m…not impressed.
You’re either preaching to the converted, or just trying to outshout the congregation, or I don’t know what. It’s not that I disagree with you politically, but I don’t know what you hope to gain by saying these things to this crowd.
Chetan Murthy
Melon Suk is making the bird(shit)site even more unusable. So today a commenter over at dKos suggested this subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/RussiaUkraineWar2022/new/
The moderation rules seem decent: no RU propaganda, etc. Anyway, thought I’d note it. If I’m wrong to pay it any attention, I’m happy to hear, but if it’s useful, I figured, share the info.
Alison Rose
@zhena gogolia: I’m wondering how they do this. Do they kidnap men who are around his age and size and then force them to get plastic surgery? It does sound very putinesque. And I guess “go under the knife or go out the window” is an easy choice.
twbrandt
@Chetan Murthy: Reddit is unfortunately having its own issues, but it’s not (yet) the toxic waste dump twitter has become.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: One supposes that these men are offered a cushy life, and given what typical Russian lifestyles are like (even in the big European cities) it’s a pretty attractive offer. I can’t imagine they need to use sticks — carrots probably suffice.
Anoniminous
Russia doesn’t need a troll farm. Old Technology. ChatGPT & etc. can spew misinformation and word salad at the speed of electrons.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: I think it’s him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EPP-IQqSOA is a short video where he walks up to the “crowd” and has the picture in the tweet taken.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Frank Wilhoit
“inexplicable joy” ==> steroids?
zhena gogolia
@Another Scott: But the video looks just as suspicious as the still picture. I can’t really tell.
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: Nor do I. It’s completely inconsistent with the VV Putin we all remember demanding 2-week quarantine from his closest associates, and spending most of his time away from Moscow in his secluded palaces. A leopard don’t change his spots that quick.
Dorothy A. Winsor
Well, that led to a livelier discussion than I expected. As I said, I asked the teacher how her family was doing because I knew she was worried, and I like her. I thought the part about the savings accounts was interesting. No sympathy required.
Chetan Murthy
@Dorothy A. Winsor: It was and is interesting, and I’m glad you posted it. Genuine facts from Russia are always good to have.
Another Scott
There’s talk of training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in Romania. It looks like there’s going to be hardware there to make it happen: RFERL.org:
(Unfortunately, the story shows a picture of an FA-18, calling it an F-16…)
I wonder if those 32 planes (and more) will end up over the northern border sooner than some expect…
Cheers,
Scott.
Bill Arnold
@Gin & Tonic:
That’s the bind I’m in too. Twitter, outside subjects where most of the “discourse” is talking points, is manageable if one blocks the paid bluechecks (“8 dollars” plugin will differentiate) who make inane talking points comments. (And if one blocks the most odious trolls, and if one is able to ignore the Nazis and Nazi-curious and MAGA loons and anti-vaxxers and … but the’re like 5-10 percent in niche subject areas.)
But the account-required change made today renders twitter links much less valuable. It breaks the utility of millions of links in previously-made web pages. I’m an outlier, but I have a few browsers which were not logged into twitter and have over 100 open twitter tabs; they are now broken.
The upside is that it is an act of self-destruction by Twitter – Musk’s presumed ambitions to make twitter a manipulative force for the GOP in the 2024 USA elections just took a huge self-inflicted hit.
Gin & Tonic
@zhena gogolia: It’s not just the physiognomy, it’s, as Chet says, the manner. Who thinks VVP is out and about mingling up-close with the public in, say, Dagestan?
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: And that crowd is big enough, and with enough kids, that there’s no way they could sufficiently vet it. I mean, it ain’t like that Mariupol apartment building farce. And *Dagestan*? C’mon! There are enough people there who fucking hate Pootie-Poot’s guts that he’d need a brigade of snipers just to feel safe.
Alison Rose
@Chetan Murthy: And doesn’t he still sit at one end of that absurdly long table?
Jinchi
Sorry, wrong thread
planetjanet
@Ksmiami:
You are just one miserable person. Maybe you should go outside and get some fresh air.
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: The vid of him with, like, 8-10 of his honchos (including Patrushev, Shoigu, Zolotov, others whom I didn’t recognize) had ’em much closer to him, but yes, at what appears to be the same damn titanic table: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-seeks-calm-after-aborted-mutiny-west-sees-cracks-putins-power-2023-06-26/
You can scroll down and see the pic. They’re close enough to him. You might remember he had a TV crew in there too, right next to him. So at least, he’s letting these jokers get closer to him. Even so, I can’t see him taking the risk of going out in such large uncontrollable crowds.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: It’s been that way for a while now. Until he took the BS they were feeding him on Ukraine and how easy it would be and ordered the reinvasion, it was working for the siloviki and him. He was achieving his objectives before the reinvasion for pennies on the dollar. Now he’s not achieving them and the costs are high.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: I assume everyone behind the “rope line” in the selfie video was checked up and down 100 times – there didn’t seem to be anything spontaneous about it.
Here he’s visiting a mosque in Derbent, Dagestan on the same trip. Much clearer video there.
(Note all the other security folks outside the doorway.)
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@zhena gogolia: And he’s not a politician. He’s a personal retainer of Putin’s. He’s an ethnic minority from the far east of Russia, he’s actual a construction engineering foreman, not an engineer and not a soldier. Putin likes and trusts him, so when the previous minister of defense, who Putin put in place to root the corruption out of the MOD especially regarding acquisitions and logistics, pissed everyone off by actually doing the job, Putin replaced him with Shoigu. Without Putin, Shoigu is managing the construction of parking garages somewhere in Siberia.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: I’ve not had a lot of time to follow what is going on. We do know that Russia had its hands in the yellow vest protests, so I expect they’re manipulating this one too.
NutmegAgain
File under News ‘n Notes: WaPo posted an article with this headline this evening. Link here. I’m not seeing anyone reference it, so I thought it was worth a mention. It is quite a puzzlement to me that such a thing would run without Ukrainian permission. So, either it’s not (unlikely), or there is some angle to running the story. “CIA director, on secret trip to Ukraine, hears plan for war’s endgame“. Interested in folks thoughts as to the reasoning.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: The pictures I’ve of the unrest in various French cities don’t show any large crowds, just scores of “Black Bloc” anarchist types smashing windows. International branded stores seem to be favored targets. Maybe I’m missing something, but this does not seem like a mass movement.
@Martin:
Sister Golden Bear
@Chetan Murthy: It’s probably the Russian version of the narco- terrorists ultimatum “silver or lead.”
Another Scott
@NutmegAgain: I’m not really seeing anything new there. Important official visits to war zones are always “secret” until they’re basically over. Ukraine wants to win quickly. It’s quicker to get VVP to agree to leave than to drive him out everywhere. Threatening Crimea and putting what’s left of the Black Sea Fleet and facilities in danger is a way to get his attention.
I’m not sure I buy the “US doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO” stuff. The US has been clear that any country that meets the requirements is free to join. The timing depends on the circumstance in the alliance and in the country in question, and I think Hungary and Turkey would put up much more resistance than the US. Only a couple of members have talked about Ukraine joining NATO during the war.
In general, the story reads to me as if the writer is leaving out a lot of nuance to make it seem more newsworthy than it is.
YMMV.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Another Scott: I think you are right about the Burns visit. I would add that reporting I’ve seen indicates that Burns is very much trusted by Ukraine’s leadership and has been since another secret trip to Kiev, a few days before Russia’s invasion
I do not think Turkiye would put up real resistance to Ukraine entering NATO. The two countries are natural economic and strategic allies. This was evidenced by their relations before and during this war.
Right now, Erdogan has a transactional, “frenemy” relationship with Putin. But Russia has been Turkiye’s biggest strategic threat for over two centuries now. With Ukraine, right across the Black Sea, in NATO Russia would be overmatched militarily in the region.
Eolirin
@Anoniminous: Generating content was never the difficult part of what the Russians did. Figuring out what content to deploy where and when was the thing that mattered. ChatGPT can’t do any of that work. Less competent people in charge of working these things will absolutely matter.
I’m hoping this is the beginning of the end of their ability to effectively pursue these tactics. Though if it is, I also see no way in which Russia doesn’t collapse.
Geminid
@Geminid: The crowds of protesters are bigger at night, though. A Times of Israel story reported that French police made 1400 arrests last night.
The funeral for the 17 year-old whose killing triggered the protests is being held today. French authorities are investigating a preliminary charge of voluntary manslaughter against the police officer who shot him.
Bill Arnold
This is viewable, despite the The Atlantic paywall, in Reader Mode in Brave and probably in other browsers.[1]
The Coup’s Lesson Is That Russia Has Reached a Dead End – An indifferent response to a warlord’s march on Moscow heralds the dawning realization that Russia has no good way out in Ukraine.a (Greg Yudin, Jun. 30, 2023)
Worth a skim, especially the parts where he points out that Prigozhin leads (or, now, led) a team of propagandists who are quite aware of the details/fault lines/factions in Russian politics.
[1] Access News Articles for Free: A Guide to Unlocking Paywallsa (Nicole Levine, March 4, 2023)
way2blue
@Adam L Silverman:
I tried using Nitter yesterday on my MBAir but couldn’t get it to load anything but the header of one twitter account I read daily. Hope to see it working soon as most of the twitter accounts I follow don’t have mirror Post accounts.
Another Scott
@way2blue: Melon broke Nitter’s access shortly after we found out about it.
This trick of using “syndication.twitter.com” still works to let you see stuff without logging in, but doesn’t let you see replies and you have to scroll to see a particular tweet.
E.g. Oryx
HTH!
Cheers,
Scott.