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Let me file that under fuck it.

Give the craziest people you know everything they want and hope they don’t ask for more? Great plan.

If you can’t control your emotions, someone else will.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

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Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

Whoever he was, that guy was nuts.

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The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 496: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Under Threat

War for Ukraine Day 496: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Under Threat

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Apparently Russian milblogger Telegram channels are once again posting about an attack at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

Here’s the full text of Noel’s tweet:

Russian channels claim that tomorrow evening, Ukraine will launch a missile and drone attack on the Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant. While simultaneously dropping munition from an aircraft filled with radioactive material. The backup plan is a Tochka-U filled with radiactive substances.

🤡🤡🤡🤡

Clown much.

Which has now led to the Ukrainians issuing their own warnings:

Here’s the machine translation of this tweet and the rest of the thread as posted at the StratCom of Ukraine Telegram channel:

⚡️⚡️ ️The Armed Forces of Ukraine officially announce possible training in the near future, provocations on the territory of the Zaporizhian nuclear power plant, occupied by Russian terrorists since March 4, 2022.

According to operational information, today, on the outer roof of the third and fourth power units of the WEU were placed foreign objects similar to explosive devices. Their undermining should not damage the power units, but may create a picture of the shelling by Ukraine. Russian media and telegram channels are misinforming about this.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not violate the norms of international humanitarian law, monitor and control the situation and are ready to act under any conditions.

No provocation of the enemy will pass.

@AFUStratCom

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

The world sees that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia NPP is Russia – address by the President of Ukraine

4 July 2023 – 23:13

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

I have just finished a conversation with Mr. President of France Macron, and these are the third international negotiations today – after conversations with the NATO Secretary General and the Prime Minister of Sweden. The key is our defense, the frontline, weapons, and the capabilities of our soldiers, and I am grateful to our partners for understanding our needs. We have agreed on new defense packages, and by the way, thank you, Emmanuel, for the fact that today the weapons we had agreed on – missiles and tanks – have begun to arrive.

But, of course, today we also talked about more strategic things – about what will be the security foundation of Europe after this war and our victory.

For peace to come sooner and to be lasting, fair and real, the Russian evil must see the limit we will set for the Kremlin’s ambitions. We, all free European nations, all in our Euro-Atlantic community, not Russian terrorists and any of their acts of blackmail and aggression.

Every day we are adding content to the NATO Summit that will take place in Vilnius next week, and I am grateful to all our partners who are working with us to strengthen the Alliance and thus to ensure security in Europe – real security. Today, in conversations with the President of France, the Prime Minister of Sweden and the NATO Secretary General, we have coordinated our steps in the run-up to Vilnius.

I also held several meetings with government officials and the Office’s international team to prepare for foreign policy events that will take place in the near future.

Very importantly, the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. The whole world must now realize that common security depends entirely on global attention to the actions of the occupiers at the plant. Russia must clearly realize that the world sees what scenarios terrorists are preparing for, and the world is ready to respond.

Radiation is a threat to everyone in the world, and the nuclear power plant must be fully protected from any radiation incidents. Today, it is exactly 16 months since the Russian troops have been in full control of the territory and facilities of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Different countries have their own intelligence and other capabilities to know exactly what is going on and who is to blame.

Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario. But in any case, the world sees – can’t but see – that the only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is Russia and no one else.

Unfortunately, there was no timely and large-scale response to the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. And this may incite the Kremlin to commit new evil.

It is the responsibility of everyone in the world to stop it, no one can stand aside, as radiation affects everyone.

I thank Mr. President Macron for his attention to the situation at the ZNPP and for his willingness to do everything necessary to ensure safety.

One more thing.

Today, Russia once again attacked Kharkiv region, the city of Pervomaiskyi. Presumably, it was an Iskander missile. Eight ordinary high-rise buildings were damaged. More than 40 people were wounded, 12 of them children, 2 of them infants, less than a year old… As of now, rescuers and police are still inspecting the damaged buildings. Everyone who was wounded by this missile strike will be provided with all necessary assistance.

And the enemy will be held accountable for this strike, as well as for all their other strikes.

Russian terrorists want to become exemplary in the way they destroy life. We will become exemplary in the way we protect life and in the way life then responds – justly and inevitably – to every blow inflicted to every terrorist.

The Nazis tried to hide from justice. For a long time. But many of them were found and are still being prosecuted. We will catch the ruscists much faster.

By the way, I will now have a meeting with Interior Minister Klymenko and Head of the Security Service Malyuk to discuss new challenges to our security and the overall situation. I also had a meeting with the intelligence today…

We know how to put terrorists in their place.

I thank all our warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s what our erstwhile colleague Cheryl Rofer had to say:

Here is The Kyiv Independent‘s Illia Ponomarenko’s assessment:

Here’s the full text of his tweet:

IMHO, nothing is going to happen to the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power plant neither tonight nor tomorrow or in the nearest time.

Russians have 0 reasons to blow up the biggest European NPP and therefore lose such a precious economic facility and such a handy instrument of intimidation and blackmailing against Ukraine & the world.

And if so, absolutely no one is going to very seriously buy it that it was Ukraine that blew up a giant NPP in the middle of its own national territory (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree).

But if/when Russians have to leave the plant as a result of a military defeat — they will be more than interested in stripping Ukraine of such a priceless facility that is crucial for the country’s post-war reconstruction and development.

So unless the world gives a very clear message (such as “Ukraine will get a stockpile of Tomahawk missiles if anything happens to the NPP”, for instance), chances are high that Russians are going to do that.

But before they have to leave forever, this is unlikely.
However, given all the dumb shit they’ve done throughout this war & beyond, that’s not the hill I’d die on.

Makiivka:

The central Donbas:

Kreminna Axis:

Here’s the full text of Pfarrer’s tweet:

KREMINNA AXIS /1620 UTC 4 JUL/ UKR Intelligence has noted an increasing concentration of RU forces on the Kreminna axis. In the reporting period 3-4 JUN, RU backed 7 offensive operations with air strikes. UKR forces broke up attacks at Novoselivske, Novovodyane, W of Dibrova, and NE of Serebryanske forestry. RU conducted fire missions at Nevske, and Bilohorivka.

Bakhmut Axis:

And the full text of the tweet:

BAKHMUT AXIS /1730 UTC 4 JUL/ Under heavy fire from aircraft and artillery, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled RU offensive operations at Hyrhorivka, Bohdanivka, Yahidne, Ivanivske, & Bila Hora. Front line reportage on 4 JUL indicates that UKR has launched offensive operations E of Orikhovo-Vasylivka, N of Yahidne and at Klischiivka. (Developing).

Orikhiv:

Velyka Novoslika:

Full text of the tweet:

VELYKA NOVOSLIKA /1820 UTC 4 JUL/ A RU probe in the vicinity of Rivnopil was broken up; retreating RU units called in an air strike but were pushed south toward Starornnaiorske. RU air and artillery strikes were conducted against Blahodatne. RU fire missions targeted Bohoyavlenka, Shakhtarske, and Zolota Nyva.

Victoria Amelina was laid to rest today:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  1. 1.

    Anonymous At Work

    Adam,

    The only reason I can see for RU not to screw with ZNPP Is that the orcs given the orders are probably either too disloyal or too smart.  Anything serious and they wouldn’t reach minimum safe distance.  They wait until UA is pressing in and they wouldn’t reach minimum safe distance.  They get ordered, remotely of course, to defend the plant to death and they’d know they can’t reach any safety, much less minimum safe distance.

    However, I would like to know if I’m wrong.  I’d also like to know what the US can do about it, outside of spreading intelligence about RU intentions.

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Okay, so it wouldn’t be a “Chernobyl II”, which is good to know, and the tweet at the top says it would be very unlikely for the radiation to spread beyond the immediate location. But it still seems like a deliberate attack on a nuclear power plant should be considered a terrorist act, since it is designed to instill terror in anyone living anywhere near it.

    (well, no one except for the most interesting personalities on this website, I agree)

    Snort. Indeed.

    I posted this in an earlier thread, but might as well drop it here, too: Video from Zelenskyy offering greetings for the 4th (in English). I hate hearing rah-rah-freedom stuff from Americans, but from him it hits very differently, of course.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Anonymous At Work: There is nothing the US can do about it other than what you’ve described and picking up the deconfliction phone lines, making a call, and making it clear in no uncertain terms what would happen if Russia damages the plant and causes any sort of nuclear or radiological event. How likely anyone in the national command authority is to do that, I do not know.

  5. 5.

    Geminid

    @Anonymous At Work: It seems like if Russians just want to wreck vital machinery- pumps, generators etc.- in the four plants they can do that without endangering themselves. That might be the plan. I don’t think the Russians will leave the station intact if they are driven out, and that’s looking more like a matter of when and not if.

    I saw that American Vatnick “thought leaders” are warning of a Ukrainian attack on the power station tomorrow. That makes me think Russia will sabotage the plants soon. They will wreck everything they can on their way out.

  6. 6.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Possibly more useful would be if Biden’s team can persuade Modi and Xi to pick up the phone and tell Putin that harming a NPP is a step too far and will affect their support for him.

  7. 7.

    Mallard Filmore

    @Anonymous At Work:

     

    I’d also like to know what the US can do about it, outside of spreading intelligence about RU intentions

    “… continuing with our live updates on Radio Free Albemuth we are getting reports that debris from the ZPP explosion has severly damaged the Kerch bridge …”

  8. 8.

    Jay

    Slava got hit today. 9 ATGM’s into their Leopard II.

    1 mild concussion, everybody else is okay.

    Slava stuck around until the retrieval crew arrived.

    They said he would get it back next week, but they can’t take out all of the dents.

  9. 9.

    NutmegAgain

    Well, somewhat selfishly, I have gotten potassium iodide tablets to give to my kid who will be in the US for a few weeks soon. They live in northern Germany, and Mama Bears gotta do mama things.  I saw Cheryl’s tweet, but I also remember Chornobyl well. I had family in France and they were pretty much besides themselves. (I realize that my anxiety is trivial compared to both anxieties and painful memories of Ukrainians, regarding radiation and its effects.) So basically, fuck the Russians with something painful & rusty & radioactive if they actually blow the power plant.

  10. 10.

    oldster

    @Jay:

    The Leopard survived 9 ATGM hits?? Very impressive.

    But consistent with what I have read about Western tanks — Leopard, Abrams, Challenger, and esp Merkava — that they prioritize crew survival much more than Soviet designs do

    I hope the crew recovers soon and gets back into the fight.

  11. 11.

    Another Scott

    Agreed that release of radiation on a large scale is not a major concern because of the way power reactors are constructed. But nuclear power plants depend on lots and lots of plumbing and lots and lots of infrastructure that needs to work reliably and safely 24/7. Stuff like that can be broken and take years/decades to rebuild. (Spent fuel ponds, etc., are also a concern, of course.)

    Henry Sokolski at TheBulletin.org:

    […]

    Certainly, Russia’s willingness to take advantage of the military vulnerabilities of nuclear sites in Ukraine has set a precedent. It is unclear if any other nation would make the mistake Russia did in assuming that it could easily seize and hold an adversary’s nuclear facilities at the very outset of hostilities. If not, they might move to Russia’s second stratagem of militarily holding the electrical supply system and its nuclear plants at risk right away. How might such a war proceed? Might Russia aim to knock out the grid, strike Ukrainian nuclear plants, and risk major radiological releases? Might it target NATO reactors (which could include more than 50 US-promised plants in Poland, Romania, and Ukraine by 2037)? How might Ukraine, the United States, and NATO members respond?

    To answer these questions, the Washington-based Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) designed and hosted a wargame. The game assumed Russia will re-invade Ukraine 15 years from now—in 2037—when both sides will have substantial numbers of long-range, accurate missiles and drones. It also assumed Ukraine and Eastern NATO countries will have new reactors of US design on their territory. In November and December of 2022, NATO officials, American hawks, American doves, Ukrainians, Romanians, nuclear experts, US military officials, and Polish experts were all tapped to prepare, critique, and play remotely over a two-week period.

    The game’s play revealed how the uncertainties and dangers of military attacks against nuclear power plants can paralyze decision-making and fundamentally alter the course of wars. The military disruptions these uncertainties introduce may far outstrip the safety issues any reactor radiological release might otherwise present. The game’s play revealed three reasons why.

    […]

    One can have war games about all kinds of things, but I think he’s (and planners) right to be thinking about the larger implications for Europe, NATO, Taiwan, South Korea, etc., of these threats and attacks against the ZNPP.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  12. 12.

    dc

    @Jay:

    Within the horror of the whole situation, I am so glad these tanks can really take a punch and keep the people inside safe.

  14. 14.

    Jay

    @oldster:

    Slava and his crew are okay, a bit shook up.

    It was a mobility kill, some systems were damaged, no penetrations.

    Knowing Slava, as soon as they get another tank, they will be back in the fight.

  15. 15.

    Anonymous At Work

    @Another Scott: This is why the UN, once RU is out of the way, needs to do something with IAEA that nuclear power plants are a non-combat or safe zone, can only be scrammed, etc.  If RU took over the plant, scrammed hte reactors and shut down everything but essential functions, that’d be acceptable.  RU seems to playing with fire in a closed fireworks store located next to a propane refueling station.

  16. 16.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: I read today about the many heavy armor vehicles that got hit around Mala Tokmachka (sp?) and that they were getting recovered in recent days, as Ukraine controls enough territory south of there, to make the place safe for recovery teams.  And it made me wonder how often RU is able to recover mobility-killed vehicles, compared to Ukraine.  Just curious, if anybody knows the answer.

    One thing that stands out: UA seems to pretty regularly hard-kill an immobile tank with UAV-delivered grenades.  The fact that RU was unable to do the same in this instance seems …. indicative of *something*.  Inadequate UAVs?  Better “hatch discipline” on the part of UA tankers?  Better armor ?  Something else?

  18. 18.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Anonymous At Work:

    the UN

    Tits on a boar, those imbeciles.  Tits on a boar.  As long as war criminals get Security Council vetoes, nothing can change for the better.  And that includes GWB and his bunch of war criminals.  Sadly.

  19. 19.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    RU vehicles are much easier to “kill” with a small drone dropped explosive than most NATO gear, hatches closed or not.

    Most NATO gear is built with the expectation that RU/Soviet arty is going to be raining down.

    The Chieftain talks about “tank bites” from time to time. Deck hatches and other hatches that can shear a finger off. It’s pretty much not an issue with RU/Soviet gear.

  20. 20.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Jay: *grin*  Happy to hear it.   Happy to hear also that Slava is not too worse-for-wear.

  21. 21.

    a thousand flouncing lurkers (was fidelio)

    @Jay: Well, so much for that new-car feeling.
    I’m glad they got off fairly lightly, although even a mild concussion is No Fun.

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @HumboldtBlue: This was instructive, thank  you for posting it:

    1. no comms
    2. no air evac for injuries
    3. way, way more arty than in Iraq/Afg.  “all you can do is hunker down and hope to be lucky”

    He said that he ignored requests from other ex-military for advice on deploying to Ukr., b/c this war ain’t like what they’re used-to.

  26. 26.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    He said that he ignored requests from other ex-military for advice on deploying to Ukr., b/c this war ain’t like what they’re used-to.

    In Bosnia, we had comms, no air evac, best was 4 hours in an M113, and sat under arty all day, from 155mm down to 40mm mortars, not allowed to shoot back,…….. until it went all the way up to the UNSC and then back down, and most of the time, the answer was no.

    It’s a full on war, where most of the NATO military has been engaged in anti-insurgency operations.

    I was lucky. I was trained during the Cold War, so I know how to dig and fight trenches, and live all day under arty. So Bosnia wasn’t a Big Deal, other than having to document war crimes.

    When I have nightmares, that’s what they are. It’s not like you can turn away, it’s your job to document every detail.

  28. 28.

    oldster

     

    @Chetan Murthy:

    No Americans of military age have experienced combat without air supremacy on their side. When you’re on the ground, it’s nice to own the sky.

    And when you don’t own the sky, it’s a lot less nice to be on the ground.

    Ps — I mean military age for an American force, not the 60-somethings that the ruzians are sending out to die.

  29. 29.

    RevRick

    If I were President Biden, I would back channel the warning that if any radioactive materials land on NATO territory, because of damage to the ZaporirhiziaNuclear Plant, it could well trigger NATO’s Article 5. Make Putin aware we would view it as an act of war.

  30. 30.

    RaflW

    @RevRick: Yellen is scheduled to be in China on Thursday (which is coming soon over there!).

    She could quietly, far from any mics, make it clear to her counterparts that it is in China’s interests not to have Russia stage an attack on Zaporizhia that causes any radioactive leaks.

    It doesn’t look good if just days and months ago headlines said things like “China throws support behind ‘strategic partner’ Russia after Wagner insurrection challenges Putin” or “China leader Xi to visit Moscow in show of support for Putin” and then a 4-reactor plant goes ‘boom’ on their watch and spreads nuclear emissions.

  31. 31.

    RevRick

    @RaflW: My youthful recollection of how the Cuban Missile Crisis was ended was that it involved back channel contacts, away from the mics and public posturing. So, yes, whatever gets the message across is worth the effort.

  32. 32.

    Another Scott

    While not minimizing the tragedy for Ukraine, VVP’s war is the cause of decades of future problems for russia. RFERL.org:

    ]…]

    In January, after Galimov had returned to Russia for his break, Alga [his battalion] was sent to Vuldehar in the Donetsk region, where they were routed by Ukrainian forces the following month in a vicious battle that reportedly left many of its members dead. Some of their bodies have not been found.

    Even before that, members of the battalion were disgruntled with their conditions.

    They complained in a letter in November that they lacked vehicles, communications equipment, winter clothing, footwear, and food supplies In the text messages to his relative, Galimov also complained about a lack of food, telling her that he at times had gone hungry several days in a row.

    Two members who had joined the battalion around the same time as Galimov returned home without permission and demanded to be discharged for having fulfilled their original four-month contract. Their request was turned down by a Kazan court in April.

    In March, a month after the bloodbath in Vuldehar, the Russian military filed cases against eight soldiers from Tatarstan for deserting the war. They had filed six such cases against soldiers from the region in all of 2022.

    […]

    It is unclear if Galimov suffered a traumatic brain injury (TBI) or post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD) from the bomb incident. A moderate case of TBI can lead to permanent ill-effects such as frequent headaches, loss of vision, and personality changes among other things.

    A recent U.S. study found that the rate of suicide among U.S. veterans who had experienced mild traumatic brain injury, known as a concussion, was three times higher than the general population. For those with moderate and severe TBI it was even higher.

    During his five-month break, Galimov did not receive any mental health assistance.

    Russia has a grossly underdeveloped mental health-care system for veterans that could soon find itself overburdened, experts say.

    In an opinion piece in The Economist in May, Massicot noted that, according to veterans’ advocates, Russia has 10 hospitals serving former military personnel and only one of them focuses on psychiatric care. That center has 32 beds.

    “Nobody is working on this issue [of PTSD],” Boris, a 44-year-old from Russia’s Udmurtia region who suffers from the condition and was located in Ukraine’s Luhansk region from 2014-2019, during the Donbas war, told RFE/RL.

    He said that PTSD will pose a more significant problem for Russian society following this conflict than in the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s Afghan war and the wars in Chechnya in the 1990s and 2000s due to the greater death and destruction experienced in Ukraine.

    The United States in February estimated that almost 200,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the fighting in Ukraine. That number has only surged since then amid continued intense fighting in Bakhmut and the recent launch of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

    […]

    I suspect the consequences of this war are going to be long-lasting and stretch far beyond Ukraine’s borders. We need to support Ukraine in achieving victory as quickly as possible, and learn the right lessons going forward.

    Figuring out how to diagnose and effectively treat TBI is important for all of us:

    Researchers at the Australian Sports Brain Bank have today reported the world’s first diagnosis of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) in a female athlete.

    With the consent of her family, the diagnosis was made on the brain of Heather Anderson, a 28-year-old AFLW athlete who died last November. Heather’s family donated her brain to the Australian Sports Brain Bank hoping to better understand why she died.

    The findings, which Professor Alan Pearce co-authored with the Australian Sports Brain Bank, raise questions about how a lifetime of contact sport may have contributed to her death. They come as Australia’s Senate inquiry works on its report into concussions and repeated head trauma in contact sport, due in August.

    […]

    :-(

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  34. 34.

    sanjeevs

    Was so struck by what Admiral Radakin (the senior UK professional military officer) said in testimony to Parliament today, that I did a substack on it.

    Some key things: Ukrainian counteroffensive has just started (its not a failure people). He describes Ukrainian strategy as Starve, Stretch and Strike. Russia has suffered massive losses. 50% of its military capabilities since the full scale invasion. Even worse for Russia…

    Production of war material can only make up a small percentage of losses. The two examples he gives (artillery shells and tanks) show Russia capable of making at most 10% of its losses through its own production. This makes the long war unsustainable for Russia (without China).

    Another Radakin quote from the testimony that puts the counteroffensive in context which people talking about the Ukrainian counteroffensive being a failure might understand. “Ukraine has taken back more ground (in the last weeks) than Russia has taken in the last year”

    Phillips P. OBrien on Twitter: “Was so struck by what Admiral Radakin (the senior UK professional military officer) said in testimony to Parliament today, that I did a substack on it. https://t.co/Wp4R3RHnSn” / Twitter

  36. 36.

    Rebel’s Dad

    Hi everyone,

    Happy 4th to my fellow former colonists! I got sick from food poisoning and missed three days of work. I lost my place to live this morning because of that (I couldn’t afford to pay another two weeks.) Everything I own is in my backpack and a small suitcase. I hope Rutgers can help me, but they won’t open until tomorrow. Prayers, vibes, hugs, words of comfort, etc. are welcome and appreciated.

  37. 37.

    Rebel’s Dad

    @Another Scott: This makes me so sad. I know people love all kinds of sportsball, but I really wish there was a desire to make them all safer to play- breaking an arm or twisting a knee is so much less damaging than TBIs.

  38. 38.

    Another Scott

    @Rebel’s Dad: Urg.  That’s horrible!  :-(

    Fingers crossed for you to get some help.  Let us know if we can assist, and don’t be reticent about applying for all the assistance you can – you pay taxes and are a member of our society and deserve and are entitled to protections from the safety net.

    Hang in there, and feel better.

    Best wishes,
    Scott.

  39. 39.

    Lyrebird

    @Rebel’s Dad: ​
     

    Oy!

    All the good wishes! Your comment is amazingly clear with all that going on. Be safe tonight, and may the uni come through with the help you need!

  40. 40.

    mvr

    @Rebel’s Dad: Ack. I’m sorry that sucks.  Don’t have too many words of wisdom.  That’s not an inexpensive piece of the world to be trying to find housing in either.  I hope Rutgers can help.

    [edited out something not really to the point because it was based on a likely false assumption.]

  41. 41.

    Rebel’s Dad

    @Lyrebird: Thank you :) As Keith Whitley sang, “I’m no stranger to the rain.” This is just the first time I haven’t had a friend, relative, or savings to fall back on.

  42. 42.

    Another Scott

    @sanjeevs:

    Here’s a short KyivIndependent.com story about it:

    During a July 4 hearing in Parliament, British Defense Chief Admiral Tony Radakin said that Russia had lost nearly half its combat capability in Ukraine.

    “Russia has lost nearly half the combat effectiveness of its army,” Radakin said. “Last year it fired 10 million artillery shells but at best can produce 1 million shells a year. It has lost 2,500 tanks and at best can produce 200 tanks a year.”

    Radakin described the invasion of Ukraine as “a catastrophic failure for Russia” and praised the Ukrainian military’s gains in the ongoing counteroffensive.

    “Even in the last few weeks, Ukraine has taken back more ground than Russia has taken in the last year,” Radakin said.

    The U.K. is second only to the U.S. in provisions of military aid to Ukraine. In May 2023, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised to deliver hundreds of air defense missiles and attack drones to the Ukrainian military.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: Yeah, the narratives about the “lack of progress” of the counter-offensive are extremely frustrating, because they reflect an understanding of “progress” that operates on timescales relevant to the 24-hour news cycle, rather than on the timescales of weeks and months typical of large-scale military operations.

    War journalists need to be right for a day. If the way that they are “right” next week totally contradicts their current narrative, no correction is required of them, much less reflection on what they got wrong. It’s downside-free, like pathology viewed as surgery on dead people.

  45. 45.

    bjacques

    I would think it more effective for the Russians to booby trap the control rooms and electrical/electronics distribution points—basically lobotomizing the plant to keep it offline as long as possible, into the winter. But I expect the Ukrainians already know that and will look for it. I’ve been amazed at how quickly their repair crews have restored power, water, etc. under Russian shelling, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the ZNPP is at least partly back online quickly.

    Russian propaganda really is lousy. The supposed methods of Ukrainian sabotage are ridiculously specific and somewhat baroque relative to Ukrainian warnings of Russian mining, which are easy to understand and more likely to anyone but tankies.

  46. 46.

    Geminid

    @bjacques: If the ZPP’s control rooms, pumps and turbines are wrecked it could take a couple years or more to restore the plant. I expect the Russians to do exactly that.

    The plant might not be safe to operate anyway until the Khavkhova(sp?) Dam is rebuilt.

  48. 48.

    Ruckus

    @Another Scott:

    I was discharged 50 yrs ago tomorrow. Back then no one had any real idea how to deal with it. I spent 2 months in hospital and saw men who obviously had what we now know as PTSD, but there was really nothing done but time. And time was never enough. I use the VA for my healthcare and see plenty of men who have been through PTSD and couldn’t get care that didn’t exist when they were deep in. Today it is much, much better. But it doesn’t take war to get PTSD, it takes trauma. If anyone here who didn’t serve in combat heard the stories of vets who didn’t get help, it would do 2 things. Scare the crap out of you and piss you off. It did me. I know stories. You don’t want to know them, believe me you don’t.

  49. 49.

    Ruckus

    @Grumpy Old Railroader:

    She knows a thing or two 2,000 about nuclear physics​ and nuclear power plants

    Not sure that number is correct but it is a bit closer than the original. I could be off by at least a power of ten.

  50. 50.

    Ruckus

    @bjacques:

    If they wanted to maintain stuff they wouldn’t have attacked in the first place. The people that run Russia really don’t give a shit about anyone but themselves. The people at the top make billions, in a country where the average salaries are 20K. They use the citizens as tools of war, at best. And they only give one shit about them, did they win? If the answer is no they will throw bodies and every thing else at their “enemies” til they run out or die.

    You may know all this, I’m just stating the obvious.

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