(Image by NEIVANMADE)
I just want to make one quick note of clarification from last night’s post. I’m not, and neither as far as I know are any of Ukraine’s senior leadership, calling for them to be immediately admitted to NATO. What the Ukrainians wanted out of the communique was an unequivocal statement that once the war was over, once they had fought off Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, then they would be admitted to Ukraine. No unnecessary delays or hoops to jump through.
Now all of that said, something very clearly was communicated behind close doors between yesterday afternoon and this morning as there has been a major tonal shift on all sides. I don’t think that undoes the damage done over the past several days, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
For the first time since independence, we have formed the foundation of security for Ukraine on its way to NATO – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
13 July 2023 – 00:32
Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!
We are returning home with a good result for our country, and very importantly, for our warriors. A good reinforcement with weapons. This includes air defense, missiles, armored vehicles and artillery.
It is very important: for the first time since independence, we have formed a security foundation for Ukraine on its way to NATO. These are concrete security guarantees that are confirmed by the top 7 democracies in the world. Never before have we had such a security foundation, and this is the level of the G7. On this foundation, we will build a new, legally binding architecture of bilateral security treaties with the most powerful countries.
Very importantly, during these two days of the Summit, we have put to rest any doubts and ambiguities about whether Ukraine will be in NATO. It will! For the first time, not only do all Allies agree on this, but a significant majority in the Alliance is vigorously pushing for it. Never before have the words “you are equal among equals” for Ukraine from other NATO members sounded truly meaningful. Now everyone understands that this is a fact. Equal among equals. And we will definitely reaffirm this fact with our victory. And with our accession to NATO. Previously, Russia’s rulers wanted to have their own fence in front of NATO’s door. We have left this Russian ambition on the margins of European history – behind the fence of our unity in Europe and, more broadly, in the free world. I am grateful to all those who have worked for unity in Vilnius now!
I thank Mr. President Biden and the whole of America for showing that global freedom really does rely on American leadership. We are equally committed to a robust defense of freedom and work together with America to achieve this.
I thank Lithuania for organizing this Summit, it is truly historic for all of us… The countdown to a new security. Thank you for every Ukrainian flag on Lithuanian streets – and there were really many flags. And thank you, Vilnius, for the emotions!
It is important that Lithuania, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Albania, Iceland, and representatives of other countries emphasized that Russia and Russian war criminals must be punished fairly for what they have done against Ukraine. Aggression must be punished.
I am grateful to the countries and leaders who are preparing to start training our pilots on F16 jets in a few weeks… I thank the Netherlands! Thank you for your extremely important leadership in Europe. Denmark, thank you! Thank you for your very specific support!
The United Kingdom… Rishi, Mr. Prime Minister, I thank you for your help and for stating that we have to take the next step at the next NATO Summit. Ukraine is already among the equals in the Alliance and should be a real part of the Alliance.
France and Mr. President Macron… I thank you for your readiness to do everything necessary to liberate our entire territory from the occupiers. Thank you for supporting, together with America and Germany, the long-term programs of our common strength.
Olaf, Mr. Chancellor, it is very important to see Germany among our allies. All Ukrainians are grateful to you for the additional Patriots and missiles for them. This is the defense of life, and Germany has already saved thousands of lives. I thank you for your willingness to support us until we defeat the Russian terror.
Italy… I am grateful to the Italians, personally to Prime Minister Meloni, for the principled position. Every Ukrainian family has something to thank Italian security assistance for. There will be a new security package. And it is very important that Italy fully supports the Peace Formula.
Canada… Mr. Prime Minister Trudeau said that Canada will do everything to ensure that Ukraine’s membership in NATO is achieved as soon as possible. Thank you!
Poland’s principled position… That our membership in the Alliance is not only our security, it is the security of our entire region, at least. And it is very important that Poland supports Ukraine on its way to the Alliance – strongly, vigorously. Thank you!
Mr. President Erdoğan and Türkiye… He said today that he really sees Ukraine moving closer to membership in the Alliance. This means a lot. I thank you! Thank you also for the principled defense of security in the Black Sea… Türkiye is doing historic things for all of us.
President Erdoğan and the Prime Minister of Norway spoke today about reconstruction… The clarity of the partners’ commitments is extremely important. Thank you for that!
I thank Norway for its tangible leadership, for all the support that has already been provided… Now there is Norway’s readiness to join the G7 in guaranteeing security for Ukraine on its way to NATO as well. I am very grateful!
Portugal, Sweden, and the Netherlands also expressed their readiness to join the security guarantees for Ukraine… Thank you! We will make this system truly extensive and effective.
Mr. President of Romania… Thank you for your work on the pilot training hub. Thank you for supporting our cooperation on the Danube and in the Black Sea. Thank you for your extremely kind and honorable words about our warriors and the entire Ukrainian people.
Greece is also joining the long-term support of Ukraine. I am grateful for this!
Montenegro, thank you for choosing security and freedom for all in Europe, thank you for your defense support!
Spain will continue and increase the treatment and rehabilitation programs for our warriors and veterans. I thank you for your help in this very sensitive issue!
Bulgaria is preparing a new security assistance package and I am sure it will work very vigorously with everyone in the NATO-Ukraine Council. Thank you!
Slovakia and Mrs. President personally… Thank you for your sincere help and for making your country one of the European leaders in protecting our fundamental values.
Latvia, thank you for your faith in Ukraine and for your tangible defense support! Estonia, thank you for your initiative on munitions, which really strengthens and changes the history of Europe for the better and brings peace closer. Thank you also for your political support at the Summit.
Luxembourg, invariably principled. Thank you very much! The Czech Republic, thank you for all the weapons, and for the equipment, thank you for the helicopters… There will be a new defense package.
Albania, as clearly as possible: Ukraine will be in NATO, and Russia will be held accountable for its aggression. As Prime Minister Rama aptly said today, the Kremlin’s policy resembles Russia’s anthem: The words are different, but the music is the same. The threat is the same. NATO is the response.
Belgium – thank you for your principled position on the issue of reparations from Russia and for your clear support for the fact that Ukraine is at the table with everyone else in NATO.
North Macedonia, thank you for your clear support for Ukraine’s contribution to common security!
Finland, I thank you for your help and thank you for your very important words today that Ukrainian soldiers will soon be sharing their experience with the armies of other NATO members. It is true. The experience of winners is always powerful.
And Hungary… It was such a Summit where everyone was quite constructive. Thank you!
I would like to thank Mr. Charles Michel, President of the European Council, Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. As always, they are pro-European, and therefore pro-Ukrainian.
Of course, Australia and Japan as security guarantors – thank you! I am grateful that peace and justice have become closer today, and Ukraine has become stronger.
Glory to Ukraine!
It's important to say that the NATO-Ukraine Council is not just a tool for participation, it is a tool for integration. And it gives us the feeling that we will be part of the Alliance.
I am confident that after the war Ukraine will be in @NATO. We will do everything for this.— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 12, 2023
A very good, powerful meeting with Mr. President Biden @POTUS.
The meeting was at least twice as long as planned, and it was as meaningful as it needed to be. If the protocol had not stopped the meeting, we would have talked even longer. All the topics. Long-term support.…
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 12, 2023
A very good, powerful meeting with Mr. President Biden @POTUS.
The meeting was at least twice as long as planned, and it was as meaningful as it needed to be. If the protocol had not stopped the meeting, we would have talked even longer. All the topics. Long-term support. Weapons. Politics. @NATO. We clearly see how to end this war with our common victory.
Thank you, Mr. President!
#UkraineNATO33
🇺🇦🇺🇸
We continued the conversation on security guarantees for Ukraine on its way to NATO with Chancellor Scholz @Bundeskanzler . Thank you for your support!
There is an agreement on additional Patriot systems and missiles for them from Germany. This is very important for protecting… pic.twitter.com/oqZ2U3mA9Y
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 12, 2023
We continued the conversation on security guarantees for Ukraine on its way to NATO with Chancellor Scholz @Bundeskanzler. Thank you for your support!
There is an agreement on additional Patriot systems and missiles for them from Germany. This is very important for protecting life in Ukraine from Russian terror!
We substantially discussed further long-term defense cooperation between Ukraine and Germany, including the functioning of hubs for the repair of Western equipment. I am grateful for Germany’s readiness for long-term, multi-year support of Ukraine and our defense of freedom. Long-term support programs are the best signal to the world that our Europe will remain a space of security and peace.
🇺🇦🇩🇪
German defence minister Pistorius very upbeat on Ukrainian NATO membership perspective in an interview last night. “Once the war is over, this can go very fast” … “Zelensky has a clear commitment” etc pic.twitter.com/3fI4QfkY2W
— Ulrike Franke (@RikeFranke) July 12, 2023
Here’s the details on the G7 agreement(s):
VILNIUS, July 12 (Reuters) – G7 countries announced on Wednesday an international framework that paves the way for long-term security assurances for Ukraine to boost its defences against Russia and deter Moscow from future aggression.
JOINT DECLARATION OF SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
We, the Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7), reaffirm our unwavering commitment to the strategic objective of a free, independent, democratic, and sovereign Ukraine, within its internationally recognized borders, capable of defending itself and deterring future aggression.
We affirm that the security of Ukraine is integral to the security of the Euro-Atlantic region.
We consider Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine to be a threat to international peace and security, a flagrant violation of international law, including the UN Charter, and incompatible with our security interests. We will stand with Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression, for as long as it takes.
We stand united in our enduring support for Ukraine, rooted in our shared democratic values and interests, above all, respect for the UN Charter and the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty.
Today we are launching negotiations with Ukraine to formalize — through bilateral security commitments and arrangements aligned with this multilateral framework, in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional requirements — our enduring support to Ukraine as it defends its sovereignty and territorial integrity, rebuilds its economy, protects its citizens, and pursues integration into the Euro-Atlantic community. We will direct our teams to begin these discussions immediately.
We will each work with Ukraine on specific, bilateral, long-term security commitments and arrangements towards:
a) Ensuring a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine now and deterring Russian aggression in the future, through the continued provision of:
● security assistance and modern military equipment, across land, air, and sea domains – prioritizing air defense, artillery and long-range fires, armored vehicles, and other key capabilities, such as combat air, and by promoting increased interoperability with Euro-Atlantic partners;
● support to further develop Ukraine’s defense industrial base;
● training and training exercises for Ukrainian forces;
● intelligence sharing and cooperation;
● support for cyber defense, security, and resilience initiatives, including to address hybrid threats.
b) Strengthening Ukraine’s economic stability and resilience, including through reconstruction and recovery efforts, to create the conditions conducive to promoting Ukraine’s economic prosperity, including its energy security.
c) Providing technical and financial support for Ukraine’s immediate needs stemming from Russia’s war as well as to enable Ukraine to continue implementing the effective reform agenda that will support the good governance necessary to advance towards its Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
In the event of future Russian armed attack, we intend to immediately consult with Ukraine to determine appropriate next steps. We intend, in accordance with our respective legal and constitutional requirements, to provide Ukraine with swift and sustained security assistance, modern military equipment across land, sea and air domains, and economic assistance, to impose economic and other costs on Russia, and to consult with Ukraine on its needs as it exercises its right of self-defense enshrined in Article 51 of the UN Charter. To this end, we will work with Ukraine on an enhanced package of security commitments and arrangements in case of future aggression to enable Ukraine to defend its territory and sovereignty.
In addition to the elements articulated above, we remain committed to supporting Ukraine by holding Russia accountable. This includes working to ensure that…
There must be no impunity for war crimes and other atrocities. In this context, we reiterate our commitment to holding those responsible to account, consistent with international law, including by supporting the efforts of international mechanisms, such as the International Criminal Court (ICC).
We reaffirm that, consistent with our respective legal systems, Russia’s sovereign assets in our jurisdictions will remain immobilized until Russia pays for the damage it has caused to Ukraine. We recognize the need for the establishment of an international mechanism for reparation of damages, loss or injury caused by Russian aggression and express our readiness to explore options for the development of appropriate mechanisms.
For its part, Ukraine is committed to:
Contributing positively to partner security and to strengthen transparency and accountability measures with regard to partner assistance;
a) Continuing implementation of the law enforcement, judiciary, anti-corruption, corporate governance, economic, security sector, and state management reforms that underscore its commitments to democracy, the rule of law, respect for human rights and media freedoms, and put its economy on a sustainable path;
b) Advancing defense reforms and modernization including by strengthening democratic civilian control of the military and improving efficiency and transparency across Ukraine’s defense institutions and industry.
The EU and its Member States stand ready to contribute to this effort and will swiftly consider the modalities of such contribution.
This effort will be taken forward while Ukraine pursues a pathway toward future membership in the Euro-Atlantic community.
Other countries that wish to contribute to this effort to ensure a free, strong, independent, and sovereign Ukraine may join this Joint Declaration at any time.
I think someone was asking about ATACMS:
Asked if he is thinking yet about sending ATACMS to Ukraine, Biden told me: Yes, but they already have the equivalent of atacms and what they need most of all is artillery shells. “We're working on that,” he said on tarmac as we left Vilnius. pic.twitter.com/r9kywIWKrF
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) July 12, 2023
I don’t know what Minister of Defense Wallace thinks the Ukrainians have been doing, but they seem to be very publicly grateful on a regular basis.
Ben Wallace, the British defence secretary said “people want to see a bit of gratitude” and Ukraine needed to put more emphasis on saying thank you for western help when he was asked about President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s complaints on Tuesday that the country had not been issued a firm timetable or set of conditions for joining Nato. Wallace said Ukrainians’ haste to get all the help they could meant they did not always say they were grateful for the help received. “Whether we like it or not, people want to see a bit of gratitude,” the minister said at a briefing in the margins of the Nato summit in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius.
Andiivka:
ANDIIVKA AXIS /1755 UTC 12 JUL/ During 11 JUL, Ukrainian forces repulsed RU offensives at Avdiivka and Nevelske. A company sized RU attack at Vodiane was broken up; RU forces are reported to have lost 10 armored and infantry fighting vehicles during this engagement. pic.twitter.com/maxq34pnHd
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 12, 2023
Kreminna Axis:
KREMINNA AXIS /1600 UTC 12 JUL/ On 10 JUL, RU launched an offensive operation that advanced toward Torske. UKR forces launched a night counter-attack along the O-0528 Road axis and drove RU forces east to Dibrova. RU air and artillery strikes indicate that UKR forces are… pic.twitter.com/qU0ym0RtjF
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) July 12, 2023
KREMINNA AXIS /1600 UTC 12 JUL/ On 10 JUL, RU launched an offensive operation that advanced toward Torske. UKR forces launched a night counter-attack along the O-0528 Road axis and drove RU forces east to Dibrova. RU air and artillery strikes indicate that UKR forces are positioned on the east banks of the Zherebets Reservoir.
They’re running out of generals:
Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the Russian armed formations, currently in Zaporizhzhia, who was removed from his position earlier today says that Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes are causing significant casualties to the occupiers holding defence.
Explaining in… pic.twitter.com/iKFP0KtlnQ
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) July 12, 2023
Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the Russian armed formations, currently in Zaporizhzhia, who was removed from his position earlier today says that Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes are causing significant casualties to the occupiers holding defence.
Explaining in an audio message, Popov says he delivered a damning report about the state of Russian counter-battery fire directly to Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov which resulted in his immediate dismissal.
In a four-minute audio message, Popov talks about betrayal from the most senior military leadership, echoing the sentiment expressed by Wagner mercenaries:
“A difficult situation with the leadership emerged. It was a choice between remaining silent and afraid and saying what they wanted to hear, or calling things for what they are. In your name, in the name of all perished comrades-in-arms, I didn’t have the right to lie. Hence I named all the problems that exist today in the army regarding operations, supply. I pointed the attention to the most important tragedy of the modern war – the lack of counter-battery fire, lack of artillery reconnaissance stations, and mass casualties and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery.
I also raised a number of other issues, expressed them to the highest levels, did it openly and very brutally. Due to this, the seniors likely felt some danger in me and instantly, in one day, put together an order to the Minister of Defence and got rid of me.
As many commanders of regiments and divisions said today, our army was not broken through the front, but our most senior commander hit us in the back, thus treacherously beheading the army in the most difficult period.”
/2. Some internal intrigues that may have become one of the main reasons for what happened to Popov https://t.co/3O4hUy6Aua
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 12, 2023
Here’s the screengrab:
Two Russian generals confirmed as killed since the beginning of Ukraine’s offensive in June.
Now let’s see Russian trolls spinning around this fact. pic.twitter.com/WL7Bfq5weV— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 12, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
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Open thread!
Suzanne
So…. If Ukraine joins NATO when the war is over, how does that work if the end is somewhat ambiguous? As someone who doesn’t really understand how wars “work”, it seems like that could be decades away, if this conflict just continues to simmer.
zhena gogolia
Okay, in the Popov tweet, he says he’s working on all “problems of the rear” (тыловые), not “pumpkin problems.”
Devore
Thanks for your usual excellent work. We appreciate it
Jay
@Suzanne:
Perun has a video on the various ways wars end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnvJzup8i-c
Chetan Murthy
Eventually, Biden said what we’d all hoped-for: https://nypost.com/2023/07/12/biden-mocks-press-says-ukraine-will-join-nato-after-war/
This seems evidence that the problem is European NATO allies who don’t want to make this committment.
I could be wrong about this.
Princess
They don’t need to thank us for a damned thing. We need to get down on our knees and thank them for fighting with every inch of their strength on behalf of the whole free world, and then we need to give them what they need now and promise they’ll never have to fight alone again.
Jay
@Chetan Murthy:
it relies on how the war ends, and Ukraine’s situation at the end.
So it’s a complex question with many variables, between now and then,
but certain people are asking for a definitive answer now, when the future is unknown.
Elizabelle
@Princess: What Princess said.
Alison Rose
Those people can all bite my ass. Ukraine, and Zelenskyy in particular, have shown nothing but gratitude and appreciation for everything that has been done for them. But gratitude does not mean you don’t keep asking for what else you still need, or continue to need. Someone in the UK, please go slap that man.
Yes, the tonal shift re: NATO is almost jarring, TBH. To have been a fly on the wall in all the closed-door chitchats among the leaders…I’m wondering what was the exact quantity of swear words used. But in any case, the news today feels much better than the previous couple, and I hope everything that has been said will be adhered to as best as possible.
These pics of a Ukrainian soldier with his pretty Siamese kitty friend made me happy.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Bex
@Elizabelle: What Princess and Elizabelle said.
HumboldtBlue
Sportsball off-topic note.
The Women’s World Cup begins tonight/Thursday morning (midnight PST). It’s being held in Aussie New Zealand.
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: I want to restart my Hulu Live subscription to watch the matches, but I’m fucking poor and it’s fucking expensive.
JeffH
@HumboldtBlue: Next week, not tonight/tomorrow.
Jay
@Princess:
it just goes to show how bad a politician the British Defense Minister is.
Zenenskyy went ” off on NATO” because Ukraine was not at the meeting.
It all seems to be worked out in later meetings.
A decent Pol would have said something along the lines of “Zelenskyy is fighting a war for the existence of his nation. Given the saga of Ukraine asking for Patriots, tanks, F-16’s and other weapons and support, and the political delay in supplying what Ukraine needs, I understand his frustration with the process, and we in NATO are working hard to address this.”
Chetan Murthy
@Jay:
As shitty of a human being as BoJo is, I suspect that he wouldn’t have made this mistake.
Raoul Paste
@Princess: Exactly
Roberto el oso
What Princess and Elizabelle and Bex said.
japa21
I have a hunch that someone with the initials JB said a mouthful in some of the behind the scenes meeting. And Zelenskyy must have been very impressed with his meeting with the President. We all know that Zelenskyy has the diplomatic chops and all that, but he actually appeared fulsome in his praise for his meeting with Joe.
Speaking of his diplomatic chops, he had something good to say about every country, even those he knows might be a little lukewarm towards Ukraine.
HumboldtBlue
@Alison Rose: @JeffH:
Ahh, shit, I jumped the gun, it’s next week.
Alison, you can stream it at buffstreams dot com and all the games will be on Fox Sports and FS1.
Jackie
I completely understand Zelenskyy’s frustration re being allowed to join NATO – based on the fear Putin will only agree to surrender the war IF Ukraine isn’t allowed to join NATO. Was this issue addressed at the Summit today?
sdhays
@Chetan Murthy: Which demonstrates just how much Britain is scraping the bottom of its steaming compost pile for minister-level politicians right now.
Sparkedcat
@Princess: Damn right! Slava Ukraini!
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: We will have to see if the WH [partially] walks back Biden’s comment. Biden has a tendency to say what he thinks should happen in principle, but which should not always be said out loud in consideration of diplomatic sensitivity – the proverbial “gaffe”.
What Biden said does not align w/ the messaging his Administration had send out to MSMs leading up to the NATO conference, nor the conference declaration itself. It leads to confusion as to what is NATO’s position & which words are truly authoritative. On the one hand, administration officials were leaking to the press and speculating that some NATO members are far too aggressive in the Russian policy direction they want to drive toward ; OTOH, Biden is now insinuating that the caution from the other members that led to the muddled NATO declaration is too timid. Other than piquing members left & right, & causing more confusion, I don’t think his comment helped to deter Putin from anything, except to keep the war going forever.
We have seen message discipline issues from Biden & Administration numerous times in the past. Biden said 4 times to the press that the US would “defend” Taiwan from Chinese attack, seemingly abandoning the long standing US policy of strategic ambiguity, only for the WH/State to walk it back & reiterating that the US maintains its “One China Policy” government by historical documents w/ the PRC & US domestic law (the Taiwan Relations Act), & strategic ambiguity remains operative. His comments suggested to the laymen the US would directly intervene in war over TW, but parsed closely could also just mean material support in accordance w/ the TRA. Biden’s comments did not increase deterrence because Chinese planning had always assumed direct US intervention, so a decision to use military force against TW will have priced in direct US involvement. OTOH, impressions of abandoning strategic ambiguity reduce room for maneuver by both the US & the PRC, heighten nationalist passions, & could help precipitate the very war that the US is trying to prevent through deterrence. Other than possibly Japan, no country in the region (US allies/partners or neutrals) thinks strategic clarity is conducive to regional peace. So, people & countries are left w/ the impression that Biden had put a stake in the ground w/ his repeated comments, but the commitment is not as solid as his comments might suggest at first glance; at the same time, the administration’s walk backs are not credible to China, either. Instead of either strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity, we have strategic confusion.
The reason countries adopt ambiguity is to prevent being locked into commitments under all circumstances, circumstances they cannot always foresee or control. For example, the US does not want to be on the hook to fight China if the war over TW is precipitated by Taipei declaring de jure independence. Similarly, Biden’s comments begs the question the definition of the “end of war”. Does that mean a peace treaty is signed by Ukraine & Russia? Or an Armistice, or a durable ceasefire? Would Ukraine have to remove Crimea before the war is considered “at an end”? These real world complexities is why world leaders should not think out loud in front of the press.
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: When I go to that site and click on soccer, it just redirects me to Fubo, where you have to sign up for a free trial, which I already did once so I probably won’t get to do it again. Plus the trial is only like a week.
Alison Rose
@Jackie:
putin will never agree to surrender
gwangung
@Chetan Murthy: Yeah, I always got the feeling that Biden has always been ahead of the European countries, and that a lot of the reluctance is because he doesn’t want to get too far ahead of the other NATO countries.
Chetan Murthy
@YY_Sima Qian:
I don’t think anything — *anything* — NATO says will deter Putin. He’s going to continue to press his war until he’s deposed or he’s too feeble to do otherwise; and in the latter case, he’ll take a breather and be right back at it. B/c that’s what Russia is, and Putin is just the latest avatar.[1] All NATO and Ukraine can do, is the same thing we did regarding Stalin: make it too expensive for him to continue his attack.
[1] I read an interesting tweet thread a few weeks ago by an international relations prof who pointed out that a *lot* of what they cover in terms of dealing with bad actors basically boils down to “how to deal with Russia behaving badly.” It’s not a general theory: it’s a theory of how to deal with Russia.
Gin & Tonic
This is a permanent member of the UN Security Council:
TRIGGER WARNING
YY_Sima Qian
I think the 58th Army has been one of the more effective Russian Army formations (relatively speaking) so far?
Chetan Murthy
@Gin & Tonic: butbutbutbut #NotAllRussianSoldiers
[narrator: (holds finger to ear) This just in: #YesAllRussianSoldiers]
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
This is horrific, if true, but at this point it’s unsourced material from a no-name account.
Chetan Murthy
@Steeplejack: There were verified reports of infants and children being raped by RU soldiers back in spring 2022.
The Pale Scot
@Alison Rose:
here u go
https://vipleague.im/
YY_Sima Qian
@Chetan Murthy: To Putin specifically, yes. However, messaging inconsistency is never helpful. I get the feeling the shift in tone that Adam alluded to is an effort to reestablish NATO-Ukraine unity to the ROW, following the confusion of the recent days & weeks. If there was that much unanimity regarding the Ukraine joining NATO soon after the war ends, then it should have been in the official document itself. That fact it is not, makes one wonder how sincere some of the current comments are.
Another Scott
@Chetan Murthy: Beware the ellipsis.
Whitehouse.gov:
There’s obviously a difference between what he “would like” and what he as a co-equal member of NATO can commit NATO to.
Cheers,
Scott.
Steeplejack
@Chetan Murthy:
Which is different from this just-reported, very specific incident. I don’t doubt that the Russians have committed atrocities, but this particular tweet appears to be, at this point, a click-farming provocation. I’d like to see some confirmation.
Gin & Tonic
@Steeplejack: It comes from a report by the UN’s Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights. Link in this Tweet:
Tom Levenson
@zhena gogolia: I’m disappointed. I was hoping “pumpkin problems” was some spectacular Russian slang.
lashonharangue
Thanks Adam. Several possibilities for the HQ strike.
Any thought?
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
Thank you for the corroboration.
Gin & Tonic
@Steeplejack: I am pretty careful about what I post here.
Ruckus
@Alison Rose:
putin will never agree to surrender
No, he will not. Unless about 50,000 of his citizens had guns to his head. So no it’s very, very likely not happening.
However. If the world really, really financially was able to stick it to russia, he would soon run out of time. He can’t replace his military equipment fast enough, nor send in enough troops, and he’s likely running out of people to run the military because he wants the ones he has to be and do things they can’t.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Utterly depraved, & stomach churning.
The Pale Scot
@Alison Rose:
So Alison, to use the VIP website, you will have to push past some ads. Keep ur fingers on the command/option keys, and close the window repeatedly, you will get the game. Occasionally the feed will stop and y have to reload. But its better than paying 500 bucks. I’m a NY Giant fan, that’s all the sports I watch I’d happily pay 10-20 bucks a game to watch, no commercials. Ur going to charge me and make me watch commercials?
FUCK YOU, Homey don’t play that.
justawriter
Translation of a translation: Hungary – Viktor, thanks for not shitting the bed more than usual.
Alison Rose
@The Pale Scot: I’m not comfortable using iffy sites like that. I’d rather just watch highlights.
HumboldtBlue
@Alison Rose:
Just use buffstream and an ad blocker.
zhena gogolia
@Tom Levenson: I have to say, I was reading along in the translation and not second-guessing it until I got to that.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: Oh, I agree with you completely,that the US and its allies are not on the same page regarding this. That’s the point both of us are making: that if the US and NATO allies were on the same page, we’d have had a firmer, more unequivocal statement. But we didn’t, and Biden’s quip makes me suspect that the US is more willing to make a firm committment than some of our NATO allies are. [Lookin’ at you, Germany (also you, France, and it goes without saying, you bastard Hungary)]
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: Like I said above, buffstream just sent me to Fubo. In order to use Fubo, you have to sign up for a free trial and give them your payment info and the trial typically only lasts one week.
Steeplejack
@Gin & Tonic:
Not that careful. You could have pointed out that the original tweet was referring to an incident from 16 months ago. To bring it up now with no context, giving the impression that it is a new event, seems like little more than an occasion to stoke a ragefest.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: I am not trying to distract from atrocities, I want to ask about something totally different though. Could you say again what the name is of the song about someone’s love gone off to war? The one that has had several versions of it posted here? I found the “Me, my friend, and two shovels” song which I was trying to find again after Jay’s detailed explanation of how to set up a good trench.
My Google-fu is enough to get back to “Bella Ciao”, but I don’t remember enough to get to the Ukrainian song above.
zhena gogolia
@Lyrebird:
Not Plyve kacha?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=51NFpKgeYyU
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: You’re looking for “Гей соколи” which could transliterate as “Hey sokoly” or “Hej sokoly.”
Gin & Tonic
@Steeplejack: It is all over Ukrainian Twitter today. I’m not going to spend my evening trying to figure out what triggered that.
sanjeevs
Masked Gunmen and a Stolen Toilet: How Russia Seized a Ukrainian City’s Businesses – WSJ
A gangster state.
Another Scott
ICYMI, AlJazeera.com:
Much more at the link.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Steeplejack: Are you saying that atrocities expire after 16 months? The Holocaust “no longer counts” after 78 years? The Armenian genocide no longer counts after a century?
Putin would like to think the Holodomor doesn’t count after 90 years.
I can’t believe that you posted this.
Alison Rose
@Steeplejack: Do you think they aren’t still committing similar atrocities every day? Is there a statute of limitations on being horrified by the ones they’ve committed in the past? This is a weird statement. Calling it a “ragefest” is condescending and sounds like something the other side in this country would say.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Thank you! I asked WG about the possibility of making a page with top songs that have come up in the Ukraine threads, and she was amenable to the idea.
I figure some top entries might be the Viburnum song, a Bella Ciao rendition or two, Beton’s topical remake of London Calling, the trench digging song…
@zhena gogolia: Oh wow that’s beautiful! The Hey Sokoly song is what I have seen on here before, but that is gorgeous, thanks!
ETA: I was meaning to ask y’all if the famous but not Ukrainian “I can give you HIMARS!” mix that Adam kindly reposts when appropriate should go on the list, but after watching the Plyve kacha performance, bringing it up seems like from the sublime to the ridiculous…
Chetan Murthy
@Alison Rose: https://www.dw.com/en/russia-accused-of-holding-20000-ukrainian-civilians-captive/a-65798670
[Russia takes UA civilians captive and then exchanges them for RU POWs]
The real question is whether there exist any decent Russian soldiers whatsoever, isn’t it? I cannot find a single report of Ukrainian POWs nor civilian prisoners being treated decently.
HumboldtBlue
@Alison Rose:
buffstreams.sx
Hardheaded Liberal
@YY_Sima Qian: Your cautions are well taken, of course. But there have now been a couple of times that official State Dept/DOD vetted lines have been much too cautious to meet Ukraine’s needs, & after Biden is involved in personal meetings with Zelensky & other leaders, he announces a more supportive position. (I THINK…). And I certainly may be wrong, but I think these shifts have endured – the bureaucratic skeptics (eg Colin Kahl, soon departing) keep dragging their feet and hindering more supportive US action until the next summit.
I wonder if Biden (or perhaps Jake Sullivan on his behalf) signs off on the foot-dragging position going into the meeting, & Biden gets much more personally focused & Zelensky & the officials from Poland & the Baltics persuade him Sullivan’s line is too cautious. And once he’s persuaded, Secy Blinken seems very keen on implementing the more supportive policies.
You & Adam are completely right that the result has been very harmful to Ukraine & has made Ukraine’s task much more difficult. But it looks to me like Biden is getting fully persuaded that Ukraine’s achieving its complete war aims is the only way to shut down Putin’s hopes of expanding Russian control to the old Russian Empire borders by force.
In any event, I wish Biden would put someone with a stronger arm in charge of implementing a strategy that consistently supports giving Ukraine everything that we can to help it achieve its maximalist war aims. It appears it will take a Very strong arm to overcome the inertia of the staffers & US aparatchicks who still follow the conventional wisdom that the foreign policy establishment “Realists” have sold for so long.
Alison Rose
@HumboldtBlue: Okay, once again, as I have already said: That site, when I clicked on “soccer” just redirected me to Fubo. I do not wish to sign up for Fubo. I am poor and don’t want to pay for the service. You literally responded to my comment where I already said this and just gave me the same link.
Gin & Tonic
@Lyrebird: The lyrics to the “Plyve kacha” song are a dialogue between a mother and son, “Hey sokoly” between a girlfriend and boyfriend, but both about going off to war.
Hardheaded Liberal
@sanjeevs: Reminiscent of Nazi expropriation of Jewish businesses in the 1930s.
Lyrebird
@Gin & Tonic: Dyakuyu!
Pardon any glitches in romanization.
Andrya
@Andrya: One could argue that the Armenian genocide- or the Tulsa race riots- no longer “count” because the individual perpetrators are not longer alive- and that is close to being true of the Holocaust as well. But that is not true of the atrocities in Ukraine- the guys who did this, if they have not been killed (and I hope they have been) are still in Ukraine, still have guns, and are still doing the same awful stuff.
In any case, atrocities committed even decades- or a century- ago are still important if the genocidal impulses have not been addressed and purged from the society. Germany has largely disavowed its former lethal antisemitism, albeit under US/UK occupation. We Americans imperfectly addressed our heritage of slavery and genocide of Native Americans- only to have it come roaring back in the 21st century. Turkiye has stubbornly refused to address the Armenian genocide- which bears bitter fruit in the cultural genocide against the Kurds. (Ironically, many Kurds were complicit in the Armenian genocide.)
russia has not begun to address its ready acceptance of genocide against any neighboring non-russians who get in their way.
Again, I am incredulous that you posted this.
Chetan Murthy
@Hardheaded Liberal: In _Hitler’s Beneficiaries_, Goetz Aly describes how the Nazi regime set up a process for expropriating all the valuable output and assets of a conquered territory. What they’d do, is mandate that “scrip” issued by the occupation authorities must be treated as equal in value to the circulating native currency. And then, well, the occupation authorities would issue a ton of scrip: to military units so they could purchase provisions, to occupation civil authorities to operate, and to soldiers for their provisions. All these Germans would spend it in the local economy, and Aly describes in great detail how German soldiers would receive “shopping lists” from their families back home, and would buy everything not nailed-down and mail it back home. The bulk-shipping allowances for soldiers were apparently huge. He illustrates this with the example of Heinrich Boll (later a West German novelist of some renown) and his letters from home and packages to home.
I’m not saying that this is OK. Rather, that war criminals have been doing this for a long time.
ETA: inevitably they would issue “too much” scrip, and the economy would collapse. But they’d have already extracted anything of any value and shipped it back home by then.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: I hope you succeed in finding a way to stream some games. An alternative, if you find you are up to it, is renting a chair and table or a barstool in a sports bar for the price of a couple of beers. I know that this is not your first choice, but it is there.
I have come to view the Women’s game as more interesting than the Men’s, despite the players’ lesser power and speed. The reason is that the Women play a less physically risky style, so that play is not interrupted by a foul every minute on average. This allows more developed collective play, with more room for exibitions of passing and dribbling skill in plays that go on for many minutes, despite turnovers. And the skill level is very high. The result is a different kind of game from Men’s soccer, perhaps with fewer intense high-physicality moments, but with a great deal more satisfying play, in my opinion.
I hope that you get to watch your share of full games.
Amir Khalid
I’m astounded that Ben Wallace would say something as dumb and tactless as,”I wish Ukraine would show more gratitude for our military aid.” I myself have seen no shortage of Ukrainian thanks, nor have Ukrainian forces squandered any of the aid. Sunak needs to have a quiet word with Wallace about this. Senior Cabinet ministers should not be embarrassing their government over trivialities like this.
Carlo Graziani
References to “the end of the war” are silly, and entirely miss the point. Ukrainian battlefield progress is what creates the context for Ukrainian accession to NATO. The fact that Ukraine ended the 2021 campaign with the upper hand is the reason that Ukrainian membership in NATO is being discussed at all today. By continuing to force back the Russians in 2023, destroying their forces, rolling back their conquests, and giving practical demonstrations of their weakness, the Ukrainians can show that the risk is low and the benefit high, making their NATO that much easier.
Seriously, there was never any chance of Russia modifying any part of its war policy in light of the outcome of this summit. This is all second-order effects. The politics will all be determined by battlefield outcomes, none of which will be affected by the politics. Really, this whole conversation is likely to make more sense in September or October, when the outcomes of the 2023 campaign can be surveyed with some clarity. Right now, it’s a bit like calling the 2024 US elections—not enough information for the predictions to be worth the attending exhaled CO2.
Steeplejack
@Andrya:
I hope you kick the stuffing out of that straw man! As I said to Chetan Murthy above, I do not doubt that the Russians have committed atrocities. And I’m sure that they continue to do so. And I hope that they all will be brought to justice for their crimes, whenever committed. What I have reservations about is posting about incidents with significant details omitted so as to distort their context.
Gin & Tonic said that this post “is all over Ukrainian Twitter today.” Why now, 16 months after the incident? Because someone framed it in a vaguely “ripped from the headlines” way to farm rage-clicks. Mission accomplished. I doubt that there is anyone—especially on Ukraine Twitter—who was like “I didn’t think the Russians were really that bad, but this is completely unacceptable!” Everyone knows they’re orcs. The tweet could have started: “Is this the great culture they keep raving about? This happened in 2022 . . .” Context. If that somehow lessens the impact of the post, then it underlines the spin that was applied.
Chetan Murthy
@Steeplejack:
You’re completely wrong about this. Russian POWs return to Russia well-fed; Ukrainian POWs uniformly return to Ukraine starved half-to-death and many having been tortured. Russian athletes (who are all members of their military) are welcomed in Western Europe; Evan Gerskovich (sp?) taken prisoner as a hostage. If “everybody” knew Russians were orcs, we’d have rounded up every goddamn orc and sent ’em home months ago. Lots of people in Europe still look forward to when the war is over, and they can go back to trading with Russia. Look at Germany for example.
No, it’s important to remind people that Russians are orcs. Daily.
Andrya
@Steeplejack: In no way was I attacking a straw man. This is what you said in comment #51:
Gin & Tonic had provided a trustworthy source (i.e. context) in comment #37- the source was a report from a UN Commission . Chetan Murthy provided additional context in comment #32. Since context had been doubly provided, and you are still objecting, the only reasonable conclusion was that you think it’s not ok to report atrocities, or not ok to mention them 16 months later. (Many WW2 atrocities did not come out until several years later, after the war.)
And this isn’t about a ragefest- it’s about empowering the citizens of NATO governments to pressure their governments to do more.
Edited to correct a typo.
Steeplejack
@Chetan Murthy:
Glad you could find a bit of straw to drag around. I submit that people know the Russians are orcs, but some choose to ignore it or overlook it for corrupt reasons.
By all means continue to remind everybody of this every day. But there’s no need to spin things, however slightly.
Lyrebird
ETA: In all of this, CM, let me say I respect your commitment and energy even if I am gonna go ahead and tone police:
Obviously we disagree on this, but I think your important point about prisoner treatment is not helped by the “real question” part, which we can’t test. I apologize for my verbose reply here. I do think caution is worthwhile though.
What about the soldiers who surrender? Or run away leaving the un-sabotaged vehicle sitting there for the taking? What about the ones who actually arrange for prisoner exchanges at all? But again, the question is a distraction from – where in the world is the International Red Cross? What can we do here to fight Putin’s empire and keep MTG and others from blocking our support for Ukraine?
Some of the Ukrainians who use the term “orcs” for invaders also have aunts and uncles who are Russians. Even if they didn’t, well… DKos has ssome good diaries up today about eliminationist rhetoric. Okay I will stop.
Steeplejack
@Andrya:
I haven’t objected to the facts, only to the slightly slanted initial presentation.
Chetan Murthy
@Lyrebird:
There’s enough there to count ’em on two hands, sure. But what we *don’t* see is any evidence of Ukrainian civilians being treated well, Ukrainian POWs being treated well. None of it. We see no evidence of Russian commanders refusing criminal orders to bomb civilians. Instead, what we see is Russian commanders getting called on the carpet, Russian soldiers getting imprisoned and punished, for demanding more weapons and more tools to attack Ukrainians.
That’s all we see: “we want to kill more Ukrainians, give us to tools”.
So you’re simply wrong: #YesAllRussianSoldiersAreOrcs. The fact that there are a vanishing few who surrender to save their lives, doesn’t change that. And, sure, there are an even-more-vanishing-few who never intended to fire a shot at Ukrainians. But all evidence is that most Russian POWs fought until they were unable to do so. That’s no evidence of good intent.
Alison Rose
@Carlo Graziani: I’m not able to leave my home, and yeah…a bar is the last place I’d want to go, considering I don’t drink and don’t like being around drunk people.
I am oodles of fun.
Chetan Murthy
@Steeplejack: The *entire frame* of international discussion of this war, and the history of Russia’s relations with Ukraine and Europe, is hopelessly slanted towards Russia. Has been for at least a century.
YY_Sima Qian
@Hardheaded Liberal: I think Jay has relayed his experience with the lumber industry in post-Soviet Russia. I think this is further symptom of the pathologies of the Russian political economy (afflicted/afflicting other former SSRs, too), now expanded to occupied territories.
Carlo Graziani
@Alison Rose: I am certain that you are oodles of fun, given the correct context. And I still hope you succeed in seeing some games.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: The problem with the International Red Cross needs to be addressed, probably after the war. Why didn’t the IRC raise holy hell about the fact that they didn’t have access to Ukrainian prisoners of war in russian custody? That is completely unacceptable. (Of course, similar issue with Amnesty International- I’ve stopped donating to them.)
That said, I think that abuse of prisoners and civilians and ethnic “outgroups” is what is going to happen in any war unless the moral culture of society and armed forces training strongly discourages it.
We haven’t been perfect in that respect either. A close friend of mine, now unfortunately deceased, was a 2nd Lieutenant in South Vietnam c. 1970. The men under his command had cornered a girl in her early teens, and planned to gang rape and then kill her. By this time discipline had broken down, and fragging was common- he could not have just called the MPs to put a stop to the whole thing. Instead he made an impassioned speech about how she was just a child, how he had a little sister back home- and they let her go. He told me sadly “if she had been 18, I could not have saved her”.
Bottom line: this is what happens if soldiers are not trained in the Geneva conventions, and the military discipline organization does not address crimes against civilians. This is what happens in war- what ALWAYS happens- if society overlooks crimes against “enemy” civilians.
Yes the russians are orcs, but we need to really police ourselves or we will become orcs too.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: On the one hand, you’re right: I remember Haditha. But AFAICT, there weren’t that many incidents of that sort of shit — yes, there were lots of incidents of US forces attacking what they thought were insurgents, sometimes wrongly — but not the sort of thing you describe.
By contrast, Russia does it *as policy*. It isn’t “a few bad apples” or even “a lot of bad apples”. It’s *policy*. The filtration camps, the torture and starvation of POWs, show us this starkly.
And I think to equate a few bad incidents (such as we had in Iraq) with the widespread policy of torture, rape, and murder that Russia has instituted, is to draw a false equivalence
P.S. As far as I can remember, there have never been widespread stories of civilians “hiding their daughters” when American troops were conquering territory. And yet, those stories are the standard, for the century-or-more, for what happens when Russian troops arrive.
dirge
I’m convinced that most “Biden gaffes” are entirely intentional and quite carefully calibrated. The effects are pretty consistently that after a few news cycles of “did he really say that?” and “what he really meant was…” everyone lands on “maybe he shouldn’t have said it, but he was right, and we were all thinking the same thing.”
I actually predicted yesterday that a “Biden gaffe” might be coming, because this is the sort of situation in which they’re useful.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: After Vietnam, there was an effort to do anti-atrocity training in the US military, and I do think that helped. However, there was other stuff in the Vietnam war beyond my anecdote: My Ly. Operation Phoenix. And, if you want to believe the US is automatically better than the russians, better not look at the invasion of the Philippines, 1899-1902. There’s also the operations in El Salvador and Guatemala under the Reagan administration.
My first point is, if we start believing “Only bad guys do that stuff! We are good so we wouldn’t do anything like that!” then we are taking the first steps to being orcs ourselves.
My second point is, that unless this tendency is relentlessly suppressed, soldiers under the severe stress of combat will take out that stress on helpless civilians- including rape, torture, and murder. Only relentless self policing will prevent that.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: I’m not arguing that we’re [ETA: intrinsically] better. And I’m very aware that the further back you go, the more atrocities you find, pretty much generally. The thing is, Western armies have worked *hard* to break from that history, where … Russia has done *nothing*. Nothing.
Yes, we can still commit atrocities. But we as Western societies work to prevent them, and it shows. Russia? Not so much. The Russian way of war is a giant war crime: that much is clear.
YY_Sima Qian
@dirge:
That is a very US-centric take IMHO. The ROW (allies, partners, neutrals, rivals & adversaries) often come away confused as to the US’ intent & policy, based on Biden’s comments & subsequent walk backs. Such comments followed by walk backs either undercuts Biden’s credibility or that of his underlings doing the walk back (who often are the point persons interacting w/ foreign counterparts).
Like I said, we have to see if the WH walks this one back to any degree.
Andrya
@Chetan Murthy: Agree. My fear is that with the current pivot to ethnonationalism, American exceptionalism, etc. we are on a path back to the bad old days. Both George W Bush and Donald Trump hugely undercut the commitment, built up since Vietnam, against abusing/killing POWs and civilians.
Remember than Donald Trump pardoned and restored rank to a Navy Seal who had been turned in by OTHER NAVY SEALS for his propensity to murder non-American civilians. (The most famous case was an ISIS suspect- suspect, not convicted- but other killings were of civilians passing in the street, including an old man and a teenage girl.) As far as I know, no Republican of stature protested this.) In fact, I don’t remember any mainstream Democrats protesting this.
The post Vietnam commitment to not be orcs was hard won, and if we don’t put energy into maintaining it, we will lose it.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya:
It’s a not-very-long path from a TFG Restoration, to filtration camps on American soil. So yeah, I agree with you.
Eolirin
@Another Scott: Uh, guys, if that’s the full context y’all are horribly misreading what Biden said. That question wasn’t directed at him. And he was calling out the reporter for being stupid, not committing to anything. That was a comment on how quickly Zelenskyy would like to be able to join NATO, which I think has been made very clear to be as immediately as possible. It isn’t a statement of support of that goal, at all. It isn’t a repudiation of it either, but it doesn’t need to be, because it was meant solely to be a repudiation of the question.
There’s nothing to walk back. And to the extent that it may need clarification it’s because it’s not being looked at in context of the question being asked.
YY_Sima Qian
@Eolirin: Huh, reading the interview again, I think you are right!
Aussie Sheila
@YY_Sima Qian:
Exactly. US politicians have a habit of strutting stuff for domestic consumption on the international stage. Not good. Like Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. It was greeted with studied, teeth grinding silence by the Australian government. Nevertheless, while Biden is playing it for all it is worth, and thank heavens he is President and not some Republican fascist, I can’t believe there can’t be some security guarantees arranged for Ukraine while they are waiting for NATO ascension.
The main thing is to give Ukraine everything they need to win, this year. And by win I mean every bit of sovereign territory restored, including Crimea.
greenergood
@Chetan Murthy: Ben Wallace’s problem is that he has a ridiculously high estimation of himself which is totally unrealistic. And he’s cheesed off because he thinks he should be the next NATO Secretary General and it ain’t gonna happen.
Another Scott
@Eolirin: +1. Assuming the transcript is correct (and the White House has every reason for it to be scrupulously correct).
He jumped in to swat down a stupid question to Zelenskyy. The press twisted it to try to make a controversy.
Yet another illustration why one should always beware of ellipsis.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Another Scott: ugh. So worse than I feared. Ugh.
Rob in CT
@Eolirin:
Bingo. I thought that was pretty obvious: the sarcasm just drips (“you guys ask really insightful questions” is fucking cold, and well-deserved).
way2blue
@Lyrebird:
Also, the video of a young woman, Kseniya Simonova, on Ukraine’s ‘Got Talent’ who illustrated a WWII story (You Are Always Near) with a sequence of sand paintings. I showed the video to a 3-year old and she was transfixed. Asked to watch it again… (Thought Kseniya was a princess.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-i1n9ZiUvU
The Pale Scot
Wat? That’s the topic of every other Irish Trad Song
The Pale Scot
@Alison Rose:
I think maybe you should try closing the page, as I said with VIP you need to close the splash page a couple of times to progress further
catfishncod
Catfishncod, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short” —
I’m feeling better about yesterday’s guess that bilateral communications were building the sort of security guarantees behind closed doors that can’t be negotiated with the full Alliance during full-scale hostilities. As our most excellent OP pointed out, Zelenskyy’s tone did a complete 180 right after a super-long bilateral Biden/Zelenskyy F2F — one that Z’s birdsite feed claims would have gone longer if not for prior schedule commitments.
Were the public G7 commitments the secret sauce that convinced Team UA? Maybe, but I’m still betting there’s more that isn’t being released (yet). The pre-summit reporting claimed that the Yanks and the Deutsche were the leaders of the accession slow-walk caucus, contrasting to the iron commitments from everyone on the eastern flank (i.e., everyone in the line of fire). That doesn’t seem to square with Biden’s tone, nor does it align with the German defense minister comments. Indeed, that Brit with foot-in-mouth disease seems to be the most not-headed (knot-headed?) I’ve heard on the subject.
I’m seeing this divergence as support for the notion that strategic ambiguity is being deployed to the benefit of Ukraine’s accession bid, rather than to its detriment. However, I’m still aware that the opposite argument is still a healthy and viable possibility. No doubt there are Moscovite-aligned interests pushing that opposition in whatever formats they can.
As to the attitude argument, I can say only this:
1) Orc is as orc does.
2) Sufficiently horrible conditions can tempt anyone into orctrocities.
3) Never forget: all orcs started as elves.
Procopius
@YY_Sima Qian: I am not a Foreign Service officer, but it seems to me that IF the U.S. wants to deter China from invading Taiwan (which I don’t believe they intend to do) then they should stop insulting the leaders of the People’s Republic of China. I really don’t understand the reasoning of the leaders of the State Department.