(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Every thousand meters of advancement, every success of each of our combat brigades deserves gratitude – address by the President of Ukraine
14 July 2023 – 19:53
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today’s key points.
I held a very detailed meeting of the Staff, focused primarily on the frontline. The situation in all key areas of action – both defense against Russian assaults and our active steps forward. Plus everything that is important for this. Shells, weapons, equipment. The rational use of shells, supplies from partners and our own Ukrainian production. Logistics.
As always at the Staff, there were reports from our commanders: The Commander-in-Chief, the commanders of operational directions… Zaluzhny, Syrsky, Tarnavsky… Commanders from specific areas of the frontline. And also Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko. Head of the Border Guard Service Deyneko. There was an important report by Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate Budanov on the situation in Belarus – we are closely monitoring what is happening there in terms of security. As of today, there are no large-scale threats. Our full focus is on the frontline.
We must all understand very clearly – as clearly as possible – that the Russian forces on our southern and eastern lands are investing everything they can to stop our warriors. And every thousand meters of advance, every success of each of our combat brigades deserves gratitude. Everyone who goes on the offensive, everyone who repels enemy attacks, are doing a great job, and I am grateful to each of our warriors!
This week we have not yet finished the planned international work. There will be important negotiations for Ukraine. And we are already preparing for the coming weeks. We will not reduce our international activity for a single day, in particular with regard to the Peace Formula, security guarantees for Ukraine on its way to NATO, and agreements with partners on weapons for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. We are also preparing new NSDC decisions on sanctions.
I continue meetings on the transformation of Ukraine. Today it concerned military education. All the experience of our warriors, all the competencies acquired by Ukrainians in the war, our new defense experience shared with our partners – all this must be integrated into the updated Ukrainian military education.
It is clear that this industry at the state level deserves a significant upgrade. And it is very important that those who are actually defending our country and are already training our country’s defenders be involved in the discussion of such an upgrade.
And one more thing.
Today, I took part in a conversation in America – at a conference with the heads of the largest and most promising global companies and major philanthropists. Investments, jobs in Ukraine, support for our country and people… Ukrainians have now realized the enormous potential of our country. All of it is aimed at our defense. But when we end the war, Ukrainian potential must be invested in Ukrainian development. The world is waiting with great interest to see what this development will be like, what the victorious Ukraine will bring to the world. And this is a question for everyone in Ukraine who works for the state, who plans to work for the state… everyone should ask themselves this question now. And find answers.
Ukraine has become a global force. And it should become a force for global development. I am confident that it will.
Glory to all those who are fighting for Ukraine! I thank everyone who defends our country!
Glory to Ukraine!
Best wishes to our French friends on this French National Day!
Freedom. Equality. Brotherhood.
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇵 pic.twitter.com/osQcxoweuC— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 14, 2023
My best wishes to our French friends and to my dear colleague @SebLecornu on this special day! Joyeux Quatorze Juillet!
May this day be full of joy and celebration, and may France prosper!
Ukraine will always remember your friendship and support. Vive la France!
🇺🇦🤝🇫🇷 pic.twitter.com/Zb1mPVE8w5— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 14, 2023
The Ministry of Defense of Denmark has provided 6 drones for mine scanning as part of their aid package for Ukraine.
These drones are used for non-technical inspection of territories, including water bodies, for explosive ordnance. It is the latest innovative approach to… pic.twitter.com/aKhS50nQDr— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) July 14, 2023
The Ministry of Defense of Denmark has provided 6 drones for mine scanning as part of their aid package for Ukraine.
These drones are used for non-technical inspection of territories, including water bodies, for explosive ordnance. It is the latest innovative approach to inspecting territories.
I’m grateful to our Danish friends and especially to my colleagues @mfMorten and @troelslundp!
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
Commenter Suzanne emailed me her question from the other night:
I had posed a question in the Ukraine thread last night for you, and I’d appreciate your insight. I had asked what the scenario looked like for Ukraine joining NATO if the war doesn’t really definitely end with a treaty or a ceasefire. You have made the point that low-level war has been the status quo since 2014. Conceivably, this could continue indefinitely…. yes? If there’s a guarantee for Ukraine to join NATO, does that incentivize Putin to drag this out?
Most wars – large (interstate) or small – end in a negotiated settlement. That’s just the reality. That said, it is very clear that the Ukrainians are not going to be willing to pursue a negotiated strategy until they have achieved their objective, which is the removal of the genocidal Russian occupation from Ukraine. Since the failure of Putin to take Kyiv within 72 hours, his strategy has been to draw thinks out as long as possible. To create a frozen conflict that turns his genocidal re-invasion and Ukraine’s defense against it into a perpetual low intensity war and occupation. Part of his strategy is to seek time. Specifically for the 2024 election in the US to take place, return Trump to the White House, for the GOP to expand their House majority, and for the GOP to retake the Senate majority. But what he really wants is Trump back in office. Because in his mind his frozen conflict turns into a Russian rout of Ukraine when Trump stops all US aid and pulls the US out of NATO. So guarantee or no guarantee, Putin is incentivized to drag this out.
Last night in comments Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom asked:
Since this is, kind of, an open thread, I have to ask here. Adam, what do you think of this whole Tuberville situation? Even I know that this is a disaster for the US military. Who/what can be done to get this arsehole to STFU already?
Senator Tuberville is mule stupid. He really has no idea what the ramifications are of his actions in holding up not just the military promotions, but also placing a hold on all senior DOD civilian nominations. And this is going to have serious repercussions. It will ripple out across the Services and it will make it impossible for acting senior civilian appointees to adjust policies.
I am going to write something, however, that is going to be very unpopular here. While Tuberville is responsible for engaging in this stupidity, this is happening because the Senate Democratic leadership is allowing it. We keep watching the same thing play out over and over and over and over again since the Clinton administration. In the majority or in the minority, Senate Republicans bend a rule as far as possible or break a longstanding norm and the Democrats do nothing. Senate Republicans weaponize the rules to hamstring and trip up the Democrats when the latter are in the majority and to brutalize them when in the minority. And the Democrats do nothing. As such, the Senate Republicans have been taught by the Democrats that breaking the rules and the norms and the traditions gets them what they want rather than results in a punishment. What Tuberville is doing is based on a procedural rule. The Democratic leadership could just ignore him and push on. What the Senate Democrats have failed to learn over the past 30 years is that it is not possible to restore the Senate’s norms and reestablish its rules by following them while the Senate Republicans do not. Senate Republicans turned off the blue slip procedure for judicial nominations during the Trump administration. They refused to honor Democratic blue slips on nominations. What have the Democrats been doing for the past two and a 1/2 years? Honoring Republican blue slips in the mistaken belief if they model following the rules/good behavior, then when the Senate Republicans retake the majority they will then have learned to do the same. It doesn’t actually work that way. This isn’t rocket science, but it is the most powerful empirical social science theory: social learning. Among its components, social learning theory posits that people and groups will continue to engage in behaviors, including deviant ones, as long as they are receiving positive rewards. The Senate Democrats always ensure that Senate Republicans are positively rewarded. And, as a result, we get what we have here with Senator Tuberville. His hold will continue, just as Rand Paul’s on DOJ/FBI nominations, and other senators’ holds will continue because they are being rewarded. The behavior will change only when they begin to be punished. There is absolutely no evidence that that is ever going to happen, just like the Federal judge in south Florida is NOT going to recuse herself. The lesson we all should have learned from Robert Mueller’s tenure as Special Counsel is to stop relying on people conning you with false hope.
The Dnipro:
Battle for the islands on the Dnipro.
Here is a short film about a special operation carried out by the Ukrainian “Navy Seals” of the @SOF_UKR. pic.twitter.com/QplmALJArV— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 14, 2023
Previously at Azovstal:
Redis. Azovstal, 2022.
— Kateryna Prokopenko (@KatProkopenkoUa) July 14, 2023
And yes, he is one of the Azovstal commanders that was returned safely from Turkey.
Russia, Florida, who can really tell these days:
Russia's parliament has banned gender transitions, hormonal therapy, and legal gender changes.
MPs called gender transitions "Satanism" and "fornication," explicitly linking the ban to Russia's war effort in Ukraine.https://t.co/01mjwNIXQz
— max seddon (@maxseddon) July 14, 2023
Here’s an interesting thread, transcribed by The Economist‘s Shashank Joshi, of a podcast featuring Dmitri Alperovitch. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Informative podcast with @DAlperovitch reflecting on his recent trip to Ukraine. " They certainly had hopes that the Russians would not be as deeply as entrenched as they are…It's really, really tough going, they're taking enormous casualties." https://t.co/LRy2OcGX23
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 14, 2023
“the debate in western capitals…is often framed in the context of lands, how much land is Ukraine going to take back…debate in Ukraine is actually very different. The fundamental issue they’re focused on…is how do we end this war in a way where we have durable security?”Alperovitch: “We’re meeting with someone very senior in [Ukraine’s] MoD. And we asked them what are your needs. And this person said: I have just five needs and they’re shells, shells, shells, shells and shells.”Alperovitch: “part of their [Ukraine] pitch to Sweden is to say…we can show you combat experience, we can do the marketing for your Gripens. Just give them to us and we’ll show you how they do against Russian Air Force. They’ll be great for future marketing of your aircraft.”Alperovitch: “one of the things that they [Ukraine] are very insistent on is that they want detailed manuals…for those systems so that they can maintain them to large extent themselves… we’ll figure it out, we can resolve the IP issues, just help us help ourselves.”Alperovitch: “The Ukrainians…don’t think that Wagner is in Belarus. They think that maybe a few dozen people have gone into Belarus. Some of them have come out since then. They don’t think that Prigozhin is based in Belarus.” Ukraine thinks not many Wagner signing MoD contractsAlperovitch: “the other thing that the Ukrainians told me is that they don’t think that MoD is paying salaries for Wagner anymore … the Ukrainians believe that those payments have now stopped.” Ukrainians also “don’t believe that Surovikin is in jail.”Alperovitch: “the Ukrainians believe that there were some Russian pilots that ignored orders to strike the Wagner column as it was on its way to Moscow, that many in the Russian military and Rosgvardiya did not want to shoot at Wagner. And that’s clearly a problem for Putin…”Alperovitch: Ukrainians assess that operational leadership in general staff were not in favour of war. Nor was SVR. “FSB, right in the lead-up to the war, was quite luke-warm….at one point, they say that in their [FSB] briefings to Putin, Putin unloaded on them.”Alperovitch: Ukraine believes Russia “want to cause, at some point, some sort of explosion, potentially in the cooling pool [of ZNPP] where nuclear fuel rods is stored, in order not to necessarily spread radiation [but] use it as nuclear blackmail, to threaten Europe…”Alperovitch: “Ukrainians believe that about 20,000 new [Russian] recruits are being pulled every single month. So that’s providing replacement troops, after training, to be used in Ukraine…that may give them some options to delay the more general mobilisation wave”Alperovitch: “the other thing we’ve learned is that [Russian] production capacity is increasing…they’re believed to be producing at least a million artillery shells a year and targeting significantly more—targeting over 2mn, but the Ukrainians don’t believe they’ll get there.”Rob Lee:” Ukraine has not made as much territorial gains as they would want. But the thing that is quite significant & we can’t really measure v. well is attrition. And there’s clearly a lot of attrition going on, it’s not very clear how the relative attrition is playing out…”Rob Lee: “Russia can stand attrition in convict units pretty easily because they can replace them. If the naval infantry units or if spetsnatz brigades take heavy casualties, that could be a problem for the ability to defend going forward..here’s a lot of things we can’t see.”
And here’s one from Dara Massicot regarding Russian military leadership. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:
Dysfunction is reaching peak levels in the Russian military command as another general is sacked for speaking truth to power and others are detained, or under suspicion. Where incompetence meets betrayal: a thread of the Russian high command and implications for the front /1 pic.twitter.com/V5TS44agFo
— Dara Massicot (@MassDara) July 13, 2023
Rumors are still swirling that a house cleaning may or may not be underway inside the military in the aftermath of the Prigozhin rebellion. Thoughts on how bad it has become in the Russian high command to get to this point, in the middle of the UAF offensive. 2/Gerasimov and Shoigu have a history of privately and publicly kicking around their subordinate for various infractions: understanding the tactical situation better (Surovikin), perhaps too popular with the men or trusted by Putin (Teplinskiy) or flag urgent problems (Popov) /3Last year Surovikin as commander put Russian forces on the defensive and ordered the construction of the defensive networks which bear his name (Surovikin lines). But Putin wanted an offensive and so he was out. Here’s a thread about that tension/ 4Teplinsky, the other deputy commander and popular within the VDV, is another. He disappeared for a few months, with rumors he disagreed with the high command, only to remerge with Putin. Teplinskiy is responsible for overseeing/improving many of the defensive positions. /5
Here’s an overview of the Teplinskiy / Gerasimov issues from @KatStepanenko @TheStudyofWar /6.Now that Surovikin is MIA for 3 weeks, my working theory is that there is no one in Rostov HQ to absorb Gerasimov’s moods and bad ideas. Teplinskiy is in the field most likely, and Alexei Kim is silent. So now the operational group commanders experience Gerasimov more directly/7Enter Popov. His command, 58th Army, (Southern MD) has been engaged for over a month in the Zaporizhzhia where the fighting is the most intense (Rabotine, Orikhiv etc, 42nd GMRD, other regiments like 70th, 291st, and the 1430th). /8Popov is sacked, in his words, for speaking truthfully about his units difficult situation. They have defended against the offensive for a month with no rotation, and have problems with logistics, counterbattery and recon. /9They do have mounting problems with rotations and reserve units which that are conducted very inconsistently across the front. @ISW can see it and noted it here: /10Popov’s command 58th Army also had its deputy commander killed this week by Storm Shadow strike in Berdyansk, and presumably other HQ staff killed this week too, adding to the chaos. /11As a commander it is his responsibility to voice these concerns given the strain to his units. Not many of his colleagues do. Popov claims that Shoigu drew up orders to relieve him within 1 day and that they are betrayed by their senior commanders. this is very rare to hear. /12Russian channels claim that Gerasimov was angry that Popov’s report was “spreading alarmism,” or blackmail, i.e., pointing out real problems observable to all. Perhaps he tried to jump the command chain but we don’t know. /13What’s different about this event to me is that there is a recording, promoted by a former deputy commander of the Southern MD. And Popov says what a lot of his colleagues know to be true: the incompetence of the Russian high command at this point is a betrayal of the army /14To recap: exactly where on the front that Russian forces need relief, Shoigu/Gerasimov sack their commander for saying so in direct terms. Popov has enough and posts a message. In doing do, he could either inspire others to speak out, or keep their heads down. /15Kartapolov, who yesterday said Surovikin is on ‘vacation’, said this: “the important skill of any boss is to see problems and hear subordinates […] I think those who are supposed to have heard seen and will take action.” They did indeed take action – by shooting the messenger.Making waves or demandsgets you in trouble. Compare to how incompetent generals are treated who don’t push back and get their units killed. they get posted to other commands or Syria, like Lapin or Chaiko. Or perform on camera. /17The Russians have one of their most combat experienced and notorious 4-star generals with roots inside the army and air force, last seen with no ranks on, MIA for 3 weeks post rebellion, while no one speaks of it. Of course it impacts the rank and file in the military. /18But here is the issue. Minefields do not care about Russian command dysfunction. Dense minefields laid months ago are hard for Ukrainian forces to get through while being shelled. If they cannot get to Russian lines, they cannot exploit any disarray. /19This story from @olliecarroll explains the difficulties and extreme conditions for UAF sappers. /20
The split between the Moscow dacha generals and those in the field has been deepening for over a year. Regular sackings of field generals helps prevent any risk of Bonapartism
— John Foreman CBE (@exexpat19) July 14, 2023
And one more long thread, this time from Samuel Bendett of CNA and CNAS. First tweet from the thread, followed by the rest from the Thread Reader App:
1/ This is an interesting thread from a Ukrainian soldiers going through Western military training in Germany. Key points that stand out: "They do not rely on electronic devices at all, and the fact that we go on missions with Chinese smartphones and tablets was wild for them." https://t.co/y9DocbYQAU
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) July 13, 2023
2/ “But after “Kropyva”, I don’t want to go back to paper docs at all. The same for quadcopters – the concept of DJI Mavics and the use of civilian copters is simply not even in their plans. Of course, they study our war, but they are still surprised that we use it (quadcopters)… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…3/ (For the record, “Kropyva” is a Ukrainian proprietary intelligence mapping software developed for planning, calculations, and orientation that is used by hundreds of units throughout Ukraine).4/ More from the Ukrainian soldier: “For a week, we were taught to read maps, take the azimuth, transfer the azimuth from the compass to the map and vice versa. When we told them that we use electronic cards on tablets and phones, they did not take us seriously.”5/ “They have different drone types, but this is purely brigade level. This shows that in addition to the war with the aborigines in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the Americans have not participated in a serious war for a long time. Their army does not have an analogue of the Chinese… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…6/ The points about Western militaries not having the equivalents of cheap, commercial-type drones for tactical ISR is a major topic of deliberation in the US military today.
The Financial Times reports on Finland’s view of providing aid to Ukraine.
Finland has hit back at claims aired at a Nato summit that Ukraine has failed to show gratitude for western support, saying aid should not be regarded as charity.
Finnish foreign minister Elina Valtonen said in an interview that “we in the west need to understand that obviously, this is not charity because Ukraine is fighting for us. They are fighting for our liberty and the European security architecture.”
Over the course of the two-day Nato summit in Vilnius earlier this week, tensions surfaced between Kyiv and some western officials, undermining a show of unity among allies in the face of Russian aggression.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy blasted Nato for its “absurd” lack of a clear timeline for his country’s membership of the military alliance.
Senior officials from the US and the UK retorted that Ukraine should be grateful for the assistance and not jump immediately to the next item on its weapons wish list. “We are not Amazon,” said UK defence secretary Ben Wallace, in reference to the online shopping platform. Zelenskyy later responded that he did not know he had to express gratitude “personally” to the minister.
Valtonen said the west remains committed to Ukraine and that it’s in its interest to do so. “I wouldn’t say there’s any fatigue and I hope there never will be,” she said.
Even if Nato would have met Ukraine’s demands for a clearer path to membership, that “wouldn’t be a 100 per cent guarantee” it would be joining soon, she said. And once a member, Nato’s mutual defence clause “is always still a political decision — what to send, how much to send, on which terms to assist,” she said.
Ukraine’s allies made long-term pledges to its security and backed the country’s eventual Nato membership — though that support fell short of Kyiv’s expectations, as well as those of some Nato members such as the Baltic states and Poland.
Zelenskyy later took pains to emphasise Ukraine’s appreciation for the sustained assistance and described long-term security commitments from the G7 and other powers as a “significant security victory” that would eventually help the country on its path to Nato.
Valtonen said the most important thing was for the US and its partners to “keep on solidifying their support.”
Asked whether the US could be counted on to do so should a Ukraine-sceptic such as Donald Trump win the US election in 2024, she said the US Congress had played an important role in sustaining assistance but that the war has also made clear Europe has more to do.
“I’m very hopeful that the US will continue its unwavering support, there seems to be very, very widespread support across Congress, both sides, so I really rely on that” she said.
But, she added: “There’s a truth to the fact that Europe also needs to do more. And I think, as sad as the war is, the key takeaway has been that there is suddenly also the awareness in Europe that we need to invest into our defence, much, much more than we have done before.” She said the war in Ukraine was also useful in exposing “the weakness of Russia”. Finland, for decades a neutral country bordering Russia, joined Nato in April after a fast accession process prompted by the war.
The Washington Post has a long profile of GEN Zaluzhnyi:
A career military man, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny long ago confronted three questions: Am I ready to die? Am I ready to kill? Am I willing to send people to die and kill?
Now, Ukraine’s top commander in a war with a Russian force larger and better-equipped than his own is asking himself a new question: How can I reduce the loss of life? He starts each morning by learning how many soldiers were killed or wounded following his orders the day before. Sometimes he stumbles across a contact in his cellphone who is dead. He refuses to delete them.
Zaluzhny said he’s saving the grieving for later. Mourning now would distract him from his important work as the man Ukrainians trust to keep them safe and Western partners trust with billions in security assistance. Both expect him to re-create Ukraine’s earlier underdog success on the battlefield.
But if it were up to Zaluzhny alone, this is not how he would get the job done. He would fight with air superiority. He would fire back at least as many shells as the Russians are firing at his troops. And he would have cruise missiles that could match Moscow’s. Instead, modern fighter jets, such as the U.S.-made F-16, are not expected on the battlefield until next year. Ukraine’s ammunition supply is constrained, with the Russians often shooting three times as much in a day.
And Western allies, citing fears of escalating the war with Russia, have placed a condition on the longer-range missiles and other materiel they’ve so far provided: They can’t be used to strike Russian soil.
So, Zaluzhny said, he uses weapons made in Ukraine for the frequent strikes across the border that Kyiv never officially acknowledges as its own.
“To save my people, why do I have to ask someone for permission what to do on enemy territory?” Zaluzhny recently told The Washington Post in a rare interview. “For some reason, I have to think that I’m not allowed to do anything there. Why? Because [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will … use nuclear weapons? The kids who are dying don’t care.
“This is our problem, and it is up to us to decide how to kill this enemy. It is possible and necessary to kill on his territory in a war. If our partners are afraid to use their weapons, we will kill with our own. But only as much as is necessary.”
The challenges facing Zaluzhny and his forces are significant. Even after he orchestrated a series of military feats — a defensive stand that forced the Russians to retreat from around Kyiv and counteroffensives that expelled the invading troops from the northeast Kharkiv region and the southern regional capital of Kherson last year — large swaths of Ukraine’s east and south, about a fifth of the country, remain occupied.
Carrying out a counteroffensive to reclaim that territory, defeat Russia and minimize Ukraine’s casualties requires resources that Zaluzhny said he’s still lacking. Western officials have said Ukraine has enough to succeed, but Zaluzhny was sharply critical of counterparts who have argued that Kyiv doesn’t need F-16s. Their own militaries would never fight like this, he said in the interview.
Zaluzhny’s attempt at culture change can be seen on the battlefield, too. Years of training and deepening ties with NATO forces have made Ukraine’s forces more nimble than Russia’s in this war. Lower-level commanders on the ground often feel empowered to make decisions quickly rather than run each call up the chain of command — a Soviet mind-set.
“The assumption that this would be a war between a big Soviet army and a small Soviet army was wrong in many countries,” Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said. “That’s why they told us that Kyiv would fall in three days and Ukraine in three weeks. But this is no longer a Soviet army.”
After Reznikov learned that Russia had launched a full-scale attack on Feb. 24, 2022, he arrived at Zaluzhny’s office to find the general standing over large maps and answering multiple phones. Zaluzhny was receiving information from the battlefield and then responding with curt orders, Reznikov said. But Zaluzhny would also add a small term of endearment each time, calling his subordinate a “beauty” or telling him “good job.”
“This is humanity,” Reznikov said. “The guy is in a general’s uniform, but his humanity is what makes him special.”
The military still demands strict order and discipline, Zaluzhny said. He can be stern and demanding, but “I do not mock people, I do not oppress them, I do not humiliate them.”
The turn away from the Ukrainian military’s Soviet legacy is far from complete. More offices must be changed, Zaluzhny said. And more change will come with the new generation — soldiers Zaluzhny proudly described as knowing English and being well-read. “It’s a pity we’re losing them,” he said.
After fighting an internal Soviet ideological enemy, he now faces an external one that lauds the very heritage Zaluzhny wanted eradicated. But he still has respect for his adversary’s doctrine. He eagerly read everything Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s military chief, has ever written, describing it as “very, very interesting” and lamenting that he hasn’t published anything lately.
“He is an enemy — an enemy who is very smart,” Zaluzhny said. “Smart and therefore devious. He is still strong. So you have to respect him as such and look for ways to kill him. Because that is the only way to win.”
Zaluzhny, however, isn’t shy about his intent to reclaim Crimea, the peninsula Russia illegally annexed in 2014, even as some Western officials privately worry about what Putin’s response would be if Ukrainian troops ever reached the territory. “As soon as I have the means, I’ll do something. I don’t give a damn — nobody will stop me,” Zaluzhny said.
The figurative Western handcuffs on his military operations have prompted Zaluzhny to think more about Ukraine’s future — beyond this counteroffensive and this war — and how to make the country so strong that no one will dare attack it again. To accomplish that means producing weapons for defense rather than being reliant on others to provide them.
He lamented that Ukraine is dependent on other countries for ammunition as partners struggle to meet the demand. The more Ukraine can fire, pinning down Russian forces, the fewer casualties it will suffer, Zaluzhny said. But what happens if the precious resource becomes scarcer the longer the war lasts?
“I’ve been asking myself that since last March — and not just myself; I ask it everywhere I can ask it,” Zaluzhny said.
His vision for a formidable Ukraine is why he struggles to consider his own future after the war. Maybe he’ll take some time off. “But as my wife says: ‘Okay, three days. What’s next?’” he said with a laugh. He might write a book, he said. He’d like to travel, though his Brussels airport experience left him wary.
But Zaluzhny expects that even after the war, he’ll be busy. His concept of victory is more than just Ukraine restoring its full territorial integrity.
“Victory will be when we will have an army — maybe even a not-insignificant one — that will guarantee the safety of children who are now riding in baby carriages, so that they grow up knowing that this won’t happen again,” Zaluzhny said. “And that’s a tremendous amount of work. It has to start now.”
More at the link!
NATO leaders invite you to the Crimea Beach Party 🍹 pic.twitter.com/uaZjzCxvVz
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) July 10, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron.
There is a new video at Patron’s official TikTok, but it is the type that won’t embed here. So click through to see it.
Open thread!
Alison Rose
Thank you for including that interview with Zaluzhny. Every time I read more about or from him, he seems both more brilliant and more of a bad-ass. I appreciate how wise and incisive he comes across, and also how clear he is about what he and his country are fighting for and that they will not give one inch on their end goals.
While I am in theory looking forward to a Crimea beach party, that video is the opposite of my happy place. Tons of people getting wasted out in the sun. Non, merci. It’s charming, though. Ukraine has won the social media war ten times over.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Martin
Anyone curious what a SAM launch looks like from the target’s perspective.
Adam,
Is it not the case that the US sort of overcorrects on the use of electronic devices in the field because in planning for a proper near-peer conflict they don’t have a lot of faith there would be a network for these devices to connect to? That may leave us with a blind spot on minor conflicts, but that’s not really what our first concern is, where for many smaller nations it’s the reverse – the minor conflict is the only one they’re still around to fight (as we wrongly expected in this case 15 months ago).
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: I do not know. That is not my area of specialty.
Gin & Tonic
Thank you, Adam, for pointing out the obvious. The Senate Democrats could bypass Tuberville tomorrow.
On the other side of the Capitol, here are the 70(!) Republicans who voted against military aid for Ukraine:
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Send ’em all to a russian training camp, if they love the orcs so much.
japa21
@Alison Rose:
No send them all to the front lines, and not the Ukrainian side. They don’t need no stinking training.
twbrandt
Not unpopular with me.
Another Scott
@Martin: Reminds me, …
There was a prof in my EE department in grad school. He was a B-52 pilot in Vietnam. He said something like “after you experience SAMs exploding all around you a few times, you learn not to take departmental turf battles so seriously”.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geminid
@Gin & Tonic: Slightly under 1/3 of the Republican Caucus. That’s fewer Republicans voting against aid to Ukraine than I would have expected six months ago.
A lot of Republicans have been straddling the fence on this question; I’m glad this vote made them choose a side.
Amir Khalid
I’m glad that Ben Wallace’s dumb and tactless demand that Ukraine be more thankful for Western military aid are getting pushback from Finland, and I’d like to see more pushback from other Western countries. What right does Wallace have to pick on Ukraine’s manners, when it’s Ukrainian troops who are fighting and dying to to defend Britain, among other countries?
The Thin Black Duke
@Geminid: Ukrainians in the United States vote too.
NutmegAgain
Mules are not stupid! Just had to note that. Opinionated, sure. Not stupid, though. Tuberville and his ilk are stupid, mendacious, and malicious as well. Taking pleasure in hurting others; it’s disgusting.
Andrya
Adam- As always, thanks for doing this.
Your comments about congressional Democrats are not unpopular with me- they are spot on. Democratic Congressional reps and senators get so attached to the routine of Congress that they value institutional smooth sailing, and the personal relationships they develop, above the welfare of the country and the policy goals of their party. (Dianne Feinstein is an egregious example, but this is a pervasive problem.) Republicans never make that mistake. And Democrats, but not Republicans, fall for the specious lure of “bipartisanship”.
And it’s not just Congress critters- Republican SCOTUS justices (even supposed moderates like Anthony Kennedy) reliably resign when their party controls the presidency and the Senate. I will never, ever, forgive Ruth Bader Ginsberg for not doing the same. In her case, though I grieve to say it, I think there was a lot of personal vanity- she thought her ability to write ultra-liberal dissents was more important than whether the median vote on SCOTUS was a Republican or a Democrat.
Democratic voters need to press candidates in Democratic primaries to commit to not doing this. Do not bring a water pistol to a gun fight.
Edited to correct a typo.
oldster
I completely agree with you about the idiocy and spinelessness of the Senate Dems. The old guard like Leahy, Durbin, and Feinstein are living in a dream-world in which “comity” and “collegiality” are still the highest senatorial virtues.
Those days are over. Long over. They certainly did not survive the Gingrich era in the House. Younger Dems need to blast some sense into the dinosaurs. And change the rules to neuter Tuberville.
You can only go so long saying, “he’s endangering national security!” No; the charade has gone on long enough. Now *you* are endangering national security by letting him pull this stunt. Change the rules.
Incidentally, Adam — when I drop a mortar round into the tube, does it go pointy end down or finny end down? Asking for a friend.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster: I saw that video.
frosty
@Gin & Tonic: I’m shocked that my Congressman Lloyd Schmuck voted correctly and isn’t on that list. I’m much less shocked that my former Congressman Perry voted for Russia.
oldster
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s amazing. I gasped twice during that brief 15 seconds.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/14yvado/an_inexperienced_russian_soldier/#
The comments are mixed between people making fun of the stupid ruzzian, and US vets saying, no, hate to break it to you, stupidity knows no national boundaries. Every batch of new US recruits has one just this clueless.
We get spoiled around here at BJ by having several extremely intelligent and literate members or ex-members of the US military — to judge from the posters and commenters, you’d think our military was chock-a-block with geniuses. But in fact, half of the population is below average intelligence, and that half is better-represented in the military as a whole. I wish every GI was an Adam or a John Cole, but I suspect you two would be the first to say it just ain’t so.
MobiusKlein
I also believe Senate democrats need to change their strategy, and not let one Senator block all sorts of random crap. The R’s have shown they are not using the power of their office in a justified way, so the D’s need to change the strategy / rules.
smith
Did I miss something? What US official said that?
japa21
@MobiusKlein: The Republicans have shown they have no interest in governing, the people, democracy, the common welfare. There was a time that wasn’t the case.
Bill Arnold
@Andrya:
Hell, Sandra Day O’Connor probably threw a presidential election so that she could retire under a Republican POTUS.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/sandra-day-o-connor
A serious charge, yes.
Geminid
@The Thin Black Duke: I remember that when House Foreign Relations Chairman McCaul (TX) visited Kyiv in February, one of the four Republicans accompanying him was freshman Max Miller (OH). Miller’s Cleveland-area district has a lot of Ukrainian-Americans living in it, plus plenty of Polish-Americans and others of Eastern European descent.
Chetan Murthy
@twbrandt: Heh, to be frank, I suspect that Adam’s viewpoint is the majority (maybe even overwhelming) opinion here. We’re all tired of Senate Dems (first Leahy, then Durbin! Ugh!) making nicey-nicey with Senate GrOPers instead of using a cricket bat. All good and fucking tired of it.
Adam L Silverman
@oldster:
Gin & Tonic
@smith: If I were a betting man, my money would be on someone whose name rhymes with Mulligan.
oldster
@Adam L Silverman:
That’s the one — thanks for posting!
smith
@Gin & Tonic: Yeah, I just found it at the Guardian. He should be ashamed of himself.
Martin
@oldster: Look, Call of Duty does not require you to care about the orientation of the mortar. You press square and it goes in correctly every time.
Gin & Tonic
@Geminid: Miller’s district is heavier on the Polish-Americans; Marcy Kaptur’s district is heavier on the Ukrainian-Americans. Both constituencies, of course, are supportive of military aid to Ukraine.
jackmac
Dick Durbin’s my senator, I’ve met him a few times and like him. He’s a reliable, strong blue vote on many, many issues. But he’s seemingly incapable of any more than verbal push back when Republicans do shitty things (like Tuberville). These times call for a Democratic chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee to be a hard ass — ESPECIALLY as his committee considers Supreme Court corruption. In those important areas Durbin comes up way short.
oldster
@Martin:
Maybe this kid has played too many video games. But I’m not sure he could do even that with any competence.
I mean — who knows, maybe he’s a capable adult the rest of the time, and he just had the misfortune to have the camera rolling when he did the stupidest stunt of his life. I know I would not want to be judge by my most clueless 15 seconds of existence.
Eolirin
@MobiusKlein: We need 50 votes to do that. We don’t have fifty votes currently. This is always the problem. We really shouldn’t be thinking of this in terms of a generic “Democrats” or even the Democratic leadership when the leadership in the Senate has marginal ability to affect these kinds of changes without complete support of the caucus. This is down to individuals.
We have hold outs. It’s not just Manchin or Sinema but they’re a big part of it. Fixing this is going to take more election cycles. The older guard needs to be replaced and we need more Senators that are willing to be more aggressive.
Geminid
From a Kyiv Independent interview of General Zaluzhnyi:
I saw only this excerpt on Twitter, but I expect the Kyiv Independent published more of the interview.
Anonymous At Work
Adam,
Latest I read is that Putin wants to travel to the economic summit in South Africa, somehow despite South Africa having signed treaties requiring them to arrest and extradite him. How insane would Putin have to be to leave Russian airspace? Also, I don’t think Biden has it in him but could we see a Yamamoto scenario?
Steeplejack
@oldster:
Also, I would not want the most clueless 15 seconds of my existence to be the last 15 seconds of my existence.
Eolirin
@Steeplejack: At least you’d only have to worry about it for 15 seconds.
Roberto el oso
@jackmac: Very good assessment of Durbin. I thought he might be getting just a bit more aggressive a few weeks back when he seemed to be aligning himself with Sen Whitehouse re the Supreme Court and its ethics problems (if they can’t take care of it in-house then Congress might need to do it for them).
oldster
@Steeplejack:
True. And in my defense, the most clueless 15 seconds of my life (so far) never threatened to kill off three other people around me.
It’s just false that people died of embarrassment that time. Sure, what I did was embarrassing, and witnesses felt some things. But there were no actual casualties. Let the record state.
Eolirin
@Anonymous At Work: No way does the US shoot down a plane.
Roberto el oso
I was curious about this quote from the section about Ukrainian soldiers and their training: “This shows that in addition to the war with the aborigines in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, the Americans have not participated in a serious war for a long time”. My curiosity is with the use of “aborigines” … is this a clumsy translation (as in a literal translation of ‘tribesmen’ etc.) or something more disparaging?
I am aware that “aborigines” has been used as a valid ethnological term at times in the past, with its meaning being similar to “indigenous”, but I’ve also seen it used in a racist way.
Suzanne
Thanks for answering the question, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Anonymous At Work: He won’t go. He’s posturing. There won’t be a Yamamoto scenario.
Adam L Silverman
@Roberto el oso: I think it is a machine translation artifact that should have been indigenous or native.
Adam L Silverman
@Suzanne: You’re welcome.
MobiusKlein
@Eolirin:
I’m usually the killjoy that brings up the fact Dems can’t get the 50 votes in the Senate. Glad somebody else is on duty for that reminder.
Carlo Graziani
This crystallized for me something I’ve been ruminating about lately: Answering the question “what makes good generalship?”
We have many historical examples of bad generals and bad command decisions, any many historical accounts attribute the ability to make good decision (or even merely adequate ones, to set achievable goals) to a kind of semi-mystic special military genius, without really going into, in any detail, what that “genius” might be comprised of.
I would argue that there is plentiful history to argue that the quality of “good generalship” is not the same as strategic acumen, or logistical ability, or even leadership, really. There is a lot of conspicuous talent along those lines among junior and mid-level officers that does not result in the promotion of a truly talented general rank officer.
Nor is good generalship the same as the ability to preserve the lives of one’s subordinates in battle. That quality (and perhaps only that one) was possessed in abundance by George Meade, the infamously unsuccessful US Civil War Union Commander.
I would say that the quality that we’re looking for derives directly from the reflections that Zaluzhny shares in the opening paragraph of that article. Good generals know in their bones that every decision that they make necessarily results in deaths, on both sides. A “successful” decision is one in which the deaths that result are well used, because they further a specific military purpose necessary to success in the war. But all such decisions are made under massive uncertainty. So a good command decision in war is one that balances the risks in such a way that a likely outcome will make the decision seem “successful.”
No matter what, though, a general is gambling with chips that amount to soldier deaths. Not to gamble means losing. Taking a calculated risk necessarily means condemning soldiers to death. Good generalship, then, is knowing this, and valuing those lives, and gambling them anyway because that’s the only way, and feeling responsible for making decisions that are parsimonious about the deaths that one spends, in the interest of achieving necessary national goals.
This is how I know that I would be a deeply shitty general. It’s a character issue. Knowing this intellectually would be of no help whatever in making calls that get people killed. I would find such decisions morally paralyzing. But I do admire the people who can make them, while preserving their humanity. Zaluzhny appears to be one such person. He fits the definition of the “good general.”
Alison Rose
@MobiusKlein: It’s Balloon Juice. No shortage of killjoys around here! (Said with all the love in the world, since I am sometimes one of them.)
Steeplejack
@Roberto el oso:
I believe you’re potentially overthinking a near-real-time clumsy translation.
Sort of like how almost every night the Ukrainian ops reports say something like “in the Zaporizhia direction, blah blah blah,” when what is clearly (probably?) meant is “in the Zaporizhia area.”
ETA: Or machine translation, as Adam said.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: He uses the Ukrainian word “аборигени,” which correctly translates as “aborigines.” It is not a word I encounter often in Ukrainian, but I am also not aware of it being used with a racist connotation in Ukrainian. It is defined as the native population of a region or country. The English word “indigenous” does not have a single-word equivalent in Ukrainian, so the use of “aborigine” or “aboriginal” may be closer to that.
Roberto el oso
@Adam L Silverman: Thank you! And also thank you Gin & Tonic & Steeplejack (I wasn’t really overthinking it or getting super indignant, the word just jumped out at me).
Gin & Tonic
@Steeplejack: The use of “direction” was discussed here way back. The word used by the armed forces is, really, “direction” – “напрям” or “напрямок.” The implication is movement, that the troops in question aren’t stationary in, say, Zaporizhzhia, but are moving toward it, however slowly. There are perfectly adequate and easily translated words for “area” that are not being used in those reports.
Adam L Silverman
@Roberto el oso: That’s exactly what it is, a machine translation failure. I just found the tweet you’re referring to and used DeepL to do the translation. This is how DeepL translates it:
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: We should bear in mind that there has been a great deal more sensitization to the ethnic slur load of such usage in the US than in most of the rest of the world. The equivalence of “aborigine” with “primitive,” or even “savage,” practically evokes airstrikes in the US, but would be regarded as a humorous figure of speech in (say) Italy or France, and (I suspect) Ukraine, as it would have in the US circa 1990-2000.
US culture spreads quite a few unfortunate things to the rest of the world (I can rant about American food thought contamination until most people wander away), but some useful things also diffuse from here. Care with hurtful ethnic/racial language is one of those that is slowly making its way out.
Mike in NC
I can still remember when Fat Bastard was invited to Bastille Day and he wanted to stage his own absurd parade in DC with M1 tanks ripping up the pavement because that was just how Putin and Kim did it.
Alison Rose
G&T, I saw this post from Olena Zelenska’s foundation on FB and I cannot stop wondering what the girl’s shirt means. “Better 18 than popeve”? Googling gets me nowhere. I have no idea if it actually means anything at all, TBH. Is this something Ukrainian I’m not aware of, or does it mean nothing to you, too?
Gin & Tonic
@Carlo Graziani: I know languages evolve in various ways, for good or ill, but the Ukrainian word (as I said, one I don’t encounter often) is a technically correct ethnographic term. But I am not a professional translator, so I’ll leave it at that.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: I have no idea what that is supposed to mean, but there is a lot I don’t understand about youth culture in America as well.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic: Fair. I’ve lived here my whole life and I could say the same. It takes me months to finally understand what some slang terms mean, and by then, they’re not being used anymore.
Hangö Kex
@Carlo Graziani: Reminds me of
attributed, 1933; to Kurt von Hammerstein-Equord 1878–1943 German general (possibly apocryphal)
Carlo Graziani
@Gin & Tonic: It’s an ethnographically-correct word that appears in a number of languages, as its origin in romance languages and in English (and, to the extent that I can make out your Cyrillic based on the Greek alphabet) in Ukrainian, is from the Latin term Aborīginēs.
The problem is not the word, but the usage. What I believe to be true is that almost all the people who notice the problem live in the US.
Gin & Tonic
@Adam L Silverman: You certainly know that translating from one language to another is never exact, whether it’s done by humans or machines. Calling this a “failure” is unwarranted. Translating “аборигени” as “aborigines” is, in my opinion, closer to the original than “natives,” although neither one is wrong.
Hangö Kex
re inserting a mortar bomb the pointy end first: I’d expect the fuzes of even Russian mortar bombs to have a safety feature where they get armed only after having left the barrel (the simpler of these make use of the acceleration on their way out, the fancier proximity ones would have the electricity for an electric detonator only after the integrated turbine generating it has operated for a bit?). They need to tolerate rough handling under the circumstances they are used after all?
gwangung
@Carlo Graziani: Yes, exactly. A general KNOWS he will lose men. A good one will not waste them foolishly (and he’ll probably have regrets every single night…but can live with that).
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
@Andrya: I feel bad about commenting on another country’s political issues, but this is so utterly egregious & involves an issue (abortion) that I feel very strongly about. Especially since the forced birthers are trying to extend their reach into Canada.
Thank you Adam, for both answering my question & adding the extra context. Which is even more infuriating when I consider what you have said before about WWIII. 🙄 The so-called Democrat leaders have to get their shite together because the danger of what Tuberville is doing extends to both Ukraine & Canada. Oh, & Feinstein really, really needs to go. She’s not mentally competent enough to properly do her job. But, who or what can force these issues, I have no idea. Dark Brandon maybe?
Thanks again, Adam.
Slava Ukraine!
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I was using failure in the the sense that a bilingual Ukrainian and English speaking translator would have understood the context in American English and would have chosen an appropriate English word without the baggage like native or indigenous, which would have been a translation success. The machine translation fails because it cannot exercise the discretion to make that value judgement when doing the translation.
Priest
I think Carlo above may have meant McClellan, not Meade (both Georges). McClellan became infamous due to his risk aversion and over estimating his opposition. Meade was not great, but did successfully manage the victory at Gettysburg, though had the McClellan-esque hesitancy which kept him from pursuing Lee’s retreating army. So perhaps Carlo was pointing to that instance.
Carlo Graziani
@Priest: I did mean McClellan, in fact, but evidently i suffered a brain cramp. Meade was a steadfast warrior. Thanks for fixing that.
Citizen Alan
Off topic, but I’m about to lose internet and wanted to share. I am presently sitting on a plane in Dallas about to take off for Fresno.
For good.
Hopefully, my furniture and car will be waiting for me.
Anyway
@MobiusKlein:
More should be done by the Senate leadership — especially as it pertains to the oh-so-holy military. Pushing recalcitrant individual senators to ignore Tuberville’s hold on military appointments will be a good exercise for Schumer and his leadership. Make the holdouts vote no — it’s not tax increases for the rich or bennies for the poor.
Priest
You’re welcome. Too much time in my youth spent playing the Avalon-Hill Gettysburg board game, looking at that Meade HQ Union counter.
frosty
@Citizen Alan: Congratulations! Enjoy Fresno and enjoy California.
Alison Rose
@Citizen Alan: Welcome (shortly) to California!! We’re glad to have you :) West coast, best coast!
Chetan Murthy
@Citizen Alan: Huzzah! From a used-to-be-Texan who is now firmly a Californian, welcome!
Steeplejack
@Citizen Alan:
Bon voyage and good luck in California. Eureka!
Maxim
@Citizen Alan: Congratulations, and welcome to California! I hope everything goes smoothly with your arrival and settling in.
Sister Golden Bear
@Citizen Alan: Welcome to California!
Omnes Omnibus
The reason that Rangers are skeptical of reliance on GPS is because, if you don’t know how to do it the old fashioned way, you are fucked if the technology goes down. I had to learn gunnery calculations with slide rules, before I got to learn how to do it faster and more conveniently with computers. Later, in the field, my knowledge of manual gunnery meant that I was able to see situations where the computers spit out the wrong answer. Usually due to operator error. It’s nice that the Ukrainian navigation software works. What if it stops working tomorrow?
trollhattan
@Citizen Alan:
Hey, that’s… [checks NOAA] great; okay, the Welcome Wagon is not literally trying to kill you but maybe stow aside the blankets and warm slippers for a few months.
Sat 109, Sun 111, Mon 109, Tue 106.
It’s how we roll.
It’s a dry heat.
Origuy
@Omnes Omnibus: I know several Ukrainians who compete at a high level in orienteering. I think they are introduced to it in school. I think they are probably better at map and compass than most Americans.
Yutsano
@Steeplejack:
Umm…isn’t Eureka a bit further north from Fresno? :P
@Citizen Alan: O frabjous day! Calloo! Callay! He chortled in his joy. If you want, I can tell you where the most interesting drive thru sushi stand is. Also: my career might take me down there for a couple years depending on what happens in the next few months. Will keep y’all posted!
EDIT: FYWP.
Origuy
@Citizen Alan: Welcome to California! I don’t know much about Fresno, except try the Basque restaurants and that a lot of people in the area go to Shaver Lake when they want to go to the mountains.
Alison Rose
@trollhattan: Could be worse.
Could be Furnace Creek.
trollhattan
@Alison Rose: Right? “Where’d all these Germans come from?”
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Absolutely agree on the Senate Dems. It may be only a minority of the Senate Dem caucus who puts comity over effectiveness, but it is far more than just Sinemanchin.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
@Priest:
Meade was in fact underrated, while most of the Confederate generals were overrated, result of the highly effective post-war Southern propaganda.
Andrya
@Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: Thanks, and I love your nym.
Unfortunately, I think it would be a bad idea to get rid of Feinstein now (or for her to resign), for exactly the reasons Adam gave in the original post. At the beginning of the current congress, Democrats in the Senate passed the “organizing resolution” which gave Democrats a one vote majority on the critical Judiciary Committee (including Feinstein). Traditionally, since forever, there is one organizing resolution passed at the beginning of each Congress, and it is not repeated.
During Feinstein’s long absence due to medical treatment the Republicans refused to allow the Democrats to appoint a (temporary) substitute. This meant that the Judiciary committee was split 50-50, which meant that NO Biden-nominated federal judge could be approved. If Feinstein resigned, and California Governor Gavin Newsom appointed a replacement Democratic Senator, it is very unlikely that the Republicans would agree to seat that senator on the Judiciary Committee. This could be forced if all 50 Democratic Senators, plus VP Harris, voted to seat the new senator on the committee- but that would have to include Manchin and Sinema, with zero Democratic defections. It would also require majority leader Chuck Schumer to show more guts than he has so far. I wouldn’t bet $1 on that.
Hillary Clinton said that Dianne Feinstein should not resign, based on the reasoning I have described above.
Odie Hugh Manatee
@Citizen Alan:
Welcome to the Left Coast, California style! I rolling it Oregon style but at least I’m five minutes from Cali. All the perks of Cali without living there…
So far the only perk is that their booze is cheaper but I still have hopes…
ETA: May your location change be what you are looking for and good luck!! :)
Citizen Alan
@Bill Arnold:
To be fair, she did wait until after Shrub won in 2004. Whereas Shitgibbon appointed a third of the court after losing the popular vote.
Martin
@trollhattan: Low of 96 in Furnace Creek tomorrow. Don’t leave the pets out.
lowtechcyclist
What does Schumer have fifty votes for?
He’d have to get at least one of Manchin and Sinema, and all the other 49 including Feinstein.
Another Scott
@Omnes Omnibus: +1.
GPS is great, but can be jammed and spoofed and so forth. It’s always good to have alternatives.
People are working on using pulsars for navigation – e.g. Wikipedia .
Before GPS was rolled out, the USAF was mapping the world (so that ICBMs, etc., could find their targets)…
Cheers,
Scott.
AM in NC
@Citizen Alan: Congrats on the move becoming a reality. Best best wishes for many wonderful experiences in your new (bluer) home!
Timill
@lowtechcyclist: He could (maybe) define “unanimous consent” as meaning “95 votes in favor” or similar. I haven’t seen this suggested anywhere, so I don’t know if he can get a majority for this.
Manyakitty
@Citizen Alan: bon voyage and welcome home!
catfishncod
Catfishncod, “A Day Late and a Dollar Short”—
The problem with assuming the Democrats are paralyzed by a vague sense of comity is that this isn’t anywhere near new. Gingrich was setting up for an age of anti-comity in the 1980’s and operationalized the Age of Deliberate Sabotage in the House in 1995. It’s been seeping across the Rotunda ever since, and I don’t think even Feinstein could be ignoring it by now.
So if they all know, why aren’t they fighting back? I think that same near-three-decade time span is also the cause. The GOP has made Anti-Norms such a part of their identity that the elder Dems have solidified a Pro-Norms identity. As in, “we are on the side of the angels because we defend the old norms”. Like anyone else, once they make a position a part of their identity, it’s very hard to adjust afterwards to new conditions.
The fallacy is presuming that the only “Pro-Norm” strategy is defensive. At this point, there are no “norms” left to defend; there are only the “will to power” values of MAGA, Scudderites, and the 0.1% (practically the only point of agreement left in the party), and then there’s the majority of the country (Dems, independents, NeverTrumpers). The strategic pivot is to move to a Pro-Norm offensive stance — to write new norms, norms that reinforce the old values while countering the neofascist/neotheocratic/plutocratic attack.
We’ve done this before: after the Civil War, in the Great Depression, in the Civil Rights movement. We can do it again; we just have to shift the paradigm… and that is where the disconnect is harming us.
None of this helps instantly — we still have a one-vote Senate majority, and between Feinstein and Manchinema, we don’t have the votes. But we can start prepping — and focus on getting the fifty votes for making reforms.