Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

…and a burning sense of injustice to juice the soul.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

The Supreme Court is corrupt. Democrats must win in November and force court reform.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

I really should read my own blog.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Ron DeSantis, the grand wizard, oops, governor of FL.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

“Loving your country does not mean lying about it’s history.”

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 507: A Quick Saturday Night Update

War for Ukraine Day 507: A Quick Saturday Night Update

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A few of you were having a discussion about generalship/leadership in the comments last night. I’m always partial to what Field Marshall Sir William Slim had to say about the topic:

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English translation after the jump.

We cannot leave any city and village under Russian occupation, where violence and humiliation of people reign – address of President of Ukraine

15 July 2023 – 16:39

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

Today, the President and First Lady of the Republic of Korea are visiting our country. A very important visit, a very important direction of our international work. And this is the first visit of the President of the Republic of Korea to Ukraine for the entire period of relations between our states.

Now, when the speed of ending the war directly depends on global support for Ukraine, we are doing everything possible to ensure that such support is as intensive and meaningful as possible.

In 15 days of July, we’ve already held negotiations, meetings, events with the leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Türkiye, the Czech Republic, and Poland. Also Slovakia, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Sweden, Portugal, Spain and Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the Republic of South Africa, Guinea-Bissau. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, President of the European Council Michel, President of the European Commission von der Leyen, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew.

The address to the student community in Argentina, talks with the largest and most promising American investors and company executives.

Today, very meaningfully, Mr. President of the Republic of Korea. And we will maintain the highest tempo of international work at all levels to restore peace for all our land and all our people.

One of the most terrible things that war brings is separation… We cannot leave any of our people, any towns and villages under Russian occupation. Wherever the Russian occupation continues, violence and humiliation of people reign. I am grateful to all our partners – every leader, every politician, public figure, every country who really supports us in the fact that only the complete liberation of our entire Ukrainian territory will allow the full force of the international rules-based order to be restored.

And of course, my thank you to all our warriors. Those weeks on the front lines were very important. Marines of the 35th and 36th separate brigades. Gunners of the 55th separate brigade Zaporizka Sich. The Magura 47th separate mechanized brigade. Paratroopers of the 79th brigade. The third separate assault brigade. The fifth separate assault brigade. The 80th separate brigade of the airborne assault troops. The 57th separate motorized infantry brigade.

I thank all of you! All of you guys, you are great! All those who bravely, firmly, and strongly fight for the sake of Ukraine!

Ukraine will prevail for sure!

Glory to you, warriors!

Glory to all who fight and work for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today, President of the Republic of Korea Yoon Suk Yeol @President_KR
and First Lady Kim Keon Hee are in Ukraine.

During this visit, the first in the history of our relations, we are discussing everything that is important for the normal and safe life of people, for the rules-based international order.

The return of deported adults and children, the implementation of the #PeaceFormula and the preparation of the Global Peace Summit, food and energy security and economic cooperation… I am sure together we will give more strength to our nations and the global positions of Ukraine and the Republic of Korea. 🇺🇦 🇰🇷

 

 

Bakhmut:

BAKHMUT AXIS /1515 UTC 15 JUL/ UKR forces advanced the line of contact to conform to the rail right of way east of the village of Klischiivka. The Russian MOD announced that General Vladimir Seliverstov, commander the Tula 106th Airborne Division (VDV) at Bakhmut has been relieved of command.

Kherson:

Neskuchne and Novadarivka via The Times (of London): (emphasis mine)

A month after its launch, the Ukrainian counteroffensive can be told in two stories, according to what has been left behind on two stretches of the battlefield five miles apart.

On a lonely country road south of the village of Neskuchne the decomposing body of a Russian soldier lay in the sun, part of his skull missing. Exactly how he died is lost to history, but his comrades had no time to recover his body as they fled the Ukrainian attack.

They are now several miles away. A nearby Ukrainian drone unit said this fact alone put the lie to the idea being told in foreign capitals and even in Kyiv that the offensive is too slow, or even failing. “Remember how these people said Kyiv would fall to the Russians in three days?” Oleksandr, 40, its commander, said. “Well, this is the same.”

Dmitro Buh, 25, the most bullish of his men, predicted the Ukrainians would reach the Black Sea in a month — something with which few analysts of the war would agree.

“This stuff about the Russians having impenetrable defensive positions?” he said. “We’ve already gone through them. They’re running away.”

Not far to the west, though, is a similar village surrounded by fields and copses, called Novodarivka, and in the fields is one of those well dug-in Russian defensive positions, little more than a trench but deep, reinforced and well covered.

“We were held up for two weeks by this one outpost,” said an infantry officer from one of the two brigades, the 23rd and the 110th, which were called on to attack this sector.

Ukrainians do not speak well of their enemy under any circumstances, but there was a touch of awe in the officer’s voice as he recounted how the Russians sucked up everything thrown at them, even after they were surrounded. “They must have lost 100 men,” he said. “We poured in shells, heavy artillery, everything. They still kept going.”

Last year, as the invading army fell back first from Kyiv in the spring and then were routed in Kharkiv and Kherson in the autumn, it was Russia’s abandoned armour that Ukrainian soldiers gleefully showed off to journalists.

They have been less keen to allow journalists to see where their initial charge a month ago met an equivalent fate, if not so extensive, at the start of the counteroffensive that is supposed to be the turning point of the war. But just short of the Russian outpost was a graveyard of Ukrainian armoured vehicles, including an upturned MaxxPro (Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle), given by the US.

It was not, it turned out, entirely ambush protected. The Ukrainian armour met a line of tanks and artillery, and was quickly brought to a halt.

Nearby a Ukrainian soldier called Bohdan described how the assault had turned into an old-fashioned tank battle. “We came upon the Russian tanks, face to face,” he said. “We fired at them. They fired at us.”

Tank warfare in the popular imagination recalls Hitler’s blitzkrieg or President Bush’s “Thunder Run” in Iraq, with tank battalions speeding through lightly defended lines under air cover. Establishing bridgeheads for the infantry, the tanks moved on swiftly to Paris or Baghdad.

Without air cover, that option is not open to Ukraine, which is why the slowness of the counteroffensive is being misunderstood, its military advisers say. There is also the scale of Russia’s defences, much improved since Kharkiv, protecting miles of minefields, tank traps and fortified, artillery-protected defensive positions to the rear.

It is easy to see why the Ukrainians want cluster weapons, now to be provided by the Biden administration. At present, the Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles must move slowly and probe the whole length of the front for weaknesses, mile by mile. That makes it all the more akin to the pre-tank era of the First World War’s western front.

The armour forms breaching groups to bombard Russian front lines and force them to retreat, with the infantry then following up to occupy those lines.

Much more at the link.

It is important to remember that when people start discussing how slow this is going, that it isn’t going well, what have you, they are doing it without acknowledging that because of policy decisions in DC, as well as in Berlin, Paris, and London the Ukrainians are being forced to attempt this counteroffensive without air superiority. The US, let alone any of our usual partners and allies in and out of NATO, would never even consider doing so as an option.

Shoigu and Gerasimov are still not out of the woods:

 

It looks like purges in the ranks of the Russian army continue.
Russian sources say that Major General Vladimir Selivestrov, who commanded the 106th Airborne Division, which is now located in the Bakhmut direction, was fired. As claimed, due to “unaccommodating character”.
P.S: A little earlier, Major General Ivan Popov, commander of the 58th Army of the RF Armed Forces, was also removed from his post.

The Russian VDV troops threaten Shoigu and Gerasimov‼️
“Servicemen of the 7th Airborne Division recorded an audio message to the Ministry of Defense. In particular, they spoke in defense of their commander of the Airborne Forces, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky. The catalyst for this appeal was the removal of the commander of the 106th Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces, General Seliverstov . In addition, in early July, General Kornev was removed from command of the 7th Airborne Assault Division. “We, the paratroopers, warn that we will not tolerate such actions in relation to General Teplinsky. And in the event of the slightest threat to his life and freedom, we will stand as a wall to protect the honor and dignity of our commander. We are very determined. Up to the point that we will withdraw from our positions and go to the rescue of our Bata. You, those who sit in the offices! The landing party does not abandon its own! Do not make fatal mistakes”

 

Here’s a machine translation of the open letter:

ABOUT THE ACCESSES TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR WAR
07/13/2023 – 21:58

Evgeny Savostyanov and other members of the IOSF

Statement by Council members on foreign and defense policy

At the request of a number of members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, we publish the statement they sent. It is not the position of the Council, but reflects the views of the signatories.

Recently, speeches and statements have appeared, including by a number of members of the IOSF, in which, albeit with numerous reservations, the idea of Russia delivering a preventive nuclear strike with a negative version of the development of military operations in Ukraine and in the territories adjacent to it extends. Moreover, the authors are not limited to the flight of fantasy about the use of tactical nuclear weapons throughout Ukraine, but also offer to beat the main NATO countries.

We well know the results of long-standing and modern studies of possible damage resulting from such a war. Hope that a limited nuclear conflict can be controlled and prevented from escalating into the global nuclear war — the height of irresponsibility. This means that at stake — the destruction of dozens and, perhaps, even hundreds of millions of people in Russia, Europe, China, the USA, in other countries. This is — a direct threat to humanity in general.

For our country, destroyed during such a catastrophe, for our people disorganized by such a war, this would also mean the prospect of losing sovereignty under the pressure of the surviving peoples of the South.

It is unacceptable pseudo-theoretical reasoning and emotional statements in the style of the so-called. « tok show » to form such sentiments in society that can push for catastrophic decisions.

These are no longer theoretical concepts. This — is not only a direct threat to all of humanity, but also a very specific proposal to kill everyone who is dear to us and whom we love.

We, the members of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, consider such proposals to be absolutely unacceptable and unconditionally condemn them.

No one should ever blackmail humanity with the threat of using nuclear weapons and, moreover, give a command to their combat use.

We invite all members of the IOSF to join this Statement.

Members of the IOP:

  • Adamishin Anatoly Leonidovich
  • Arbatov Alexey Georgievich
  • Arbatova Nadezhda Konstantinovna
  • Belkin Alexander Anatolyevich
  • Bovt Georgy Georgovich
  • Borovik-Hilchevskaya Veronika Yuryevna
  • Vysotsky Alexander Mikhailovich
  • Goltz Alexander Matveevich
  • Gurevich Vladimir Semenovich
  • Dvorkin Vladimir Zinovievich
  • Dubinin Sergey Konstantinovich
  • Dymarsky Vitaliy Naumovich
  • Zakharov Alexander Vladimirovich
  • Zolotarev Pavel Semenovich
  • Kaspe Svyatoslav Igorevich
  • Koshlyakov Lev Sergeevich
  • Lomakin-Rumyantsev Ilya Vladimirovich
  • Lukin Vladimir Petrovich
  • Mndoyants Sergey Ashotovich
  • Musician Alexander Ilyich
  • Murašov Arkady Nikolaevich
  • Oznobishchev Sergey Konstantinovich
  • Rubanov Vladimir Arsenievich
  • Rurikov Dmitry Borisovich
  • Savostyanov Evgeny Vadimovich
  • Entin Vladimir Lvovich
  • Jurgens Igor Yuryevich
  • Tsyplyaev Sergey Alekseevich

If you’re interested:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material.

If you were wondering why they weren’t updating, someone started going after the videos they were posting:

You all know what to do!

That’s enough for tonight!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

44Comments

  1. 1.

    Villago Delenda Est

    Well, I think Prez Z just told Avivek Ramaswamy to fuck the fucking fuck off.

  5. 5.

    Alison Rose

    I appreciate Ukrainians trying to patiently explain to dumbfucks outside of the country how war works, but I imagine they are quite tired of having to do so already. It’s like people wanted them to turn into Trogdor overnight and start BURNINATING THE RUZZIANS or something.

    Also, Ukrainian grannies are so kick-ass. This video made me smile.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Alison Rose: I call him “Avivek” because that’s that’s the opposite of “vivek” (Google translate: “prudence”), Chetan, correct me if I’ve got this wrong.  This guy says Ukraine should just surrender the territory that is under Russian control right now.  Prez Z of course differs on this point.

  8. 8.

    Alison Rose

    @Villago Delenda Est: Oh, okay, yeah I saw those stupid comments. I thought there was something more specific that Ze was subtly responding to. I’m sure at this point he’d like to just tell everyone with that mindset to fuck off to the moon. It’s especially rich for anyone living in the US who is not Native American to be like “let me tell you how to handle land disputes”.

    (With the caveat that this is NOT a “land dispute” but that’s how these fuckers see it.)

  9. 9.

    oldster

    Thanks for the link to F.M. Slim. I listened to that for a bit and found it very entertaining.

    Some of the jokes and responses make more sense if he was speaking to an American audience, I think.

    I sure do love to hear ruzzian paratroopers threatening to mutiny!

  10. 10.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Villago Delenda Est: I know less Hindi (I assume that that’s the language from which is name derives) than you, so no worries.  Now, it’s a French name, maybe I might be able to opine *grin*.

    Ramaswamy can go suck on this here fossilized narwhal tusk I have here.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @oldster: The context is certainly localized to his audience and to his era. But he was both brilliant and got the concept he was discussing.

  12. 12.

    oldster

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Mostly I was thinking about how he made jokes about what a pain in the ass allies can be — it seemed like the sort of good-natured teasing that a Brit would do with Americans, esp. in the post-war glow of the “special relationship.”

  13. 13.

    Martin

    Based on confirmed equipment losses, UA seems to be maintaining a reliable 4:1 advantage, which is probably pretty close to the rate at which both sides run out of equipment at about the same time, with UA possibly have an advantage for equipment repair between western help and being better able to recover both UA and RU equipment, not that it might count for a whole lot at that point.

    Counting the days to F-16mas.

  14. 14.

    japa21

    I am quite content with the pace of the counteroffensive. They are stretching the Russian forces out and I have read that there really aren’t any reserves the Russians can call in if the Ukrainians do accomplish a breakthrough. Also that not all the new brigades are involved yet.

  17. 17.

    Yutsano

    Re: how the Ukrainian soldiers treat animals: that’s what happens when your logistics are in order. Starving soldiers don’t need to hunt for their food. Plus how many are farm boys at heart anyway?

  18. 18.

    Jinchi

    @Villago Delenda Est: I think it’s more precise to say that Vivek plans to surrender Ukrainian territory to Russia for them.  He doesn’t seem to think Ukraine even needs to be at the table.

  21. 21.

    Ascap_scab

    Off topic:

    DeSantis campaign fires a dozen mid-level staffers.
    Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign has fired roughly a dozen staffers — and more are expected in the coming weeks as he shakes up his big-money political operations after less than two months on the campaign trail.
    Those who were let go were described to NBC News by a source familiar as mid-level staffers across several departments whose departures were related to cutting costs. The exits come after the departures of David Abrams and Tucker Obenshain, veterans of DeSantis’ political orbit, which were first reported by Politico.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna94470

  22. 22.

    Geminid

    @Ascap_scab: DeSantis has joined Trump on the appeasement side with regards to Ukraine. Christie and Pence have taken a pro-Ukraine position, and Christie has been attacking DeSantis and Trump for trying to “give Ukraine away.”

  24. 24.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: Honest-to-god, I don’t know.  I only learned I was  Kshatriya (ok, the lowest-subcaste, and only b/c all landowners were Kshatriya) in my 30s.  I had figured, brown as we are in my fam, that we were much lower-caste.

  27. 27.

    Will

    Let’s not be culturally insensitive messing with the meaning of someone’s name. That’s MAGA stuff.

    Lets just call him a chutiya and move on.

  28. 28.

    Martin

    @Andrya: Yeah, I thought so. I know that there are real and meaningful efforts to eliminate caste discrimination in the Indian community, but well, there have been real and meaningful efforts to eliminate racial caste discrimination in the US community for the last 160 years, and despite that you could make good money betting on whenever a problematic policy idea, like stripping the right to vote from a generation, or declaring a resolution to a war that doesn’t include the victim of said war, that argument came from a member of a former high caste.

  29. 29.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Martin: I don’t keep much track of Indian politics except for, y’know, the big picture of “Modi’s going Fash and the Muslims are the scapegoat”, but from what I understand, yeah, those attempts to remedy discrimination against lower-caste Indians (and I think there’s another group who are literally beneath the caste hierarchy) have been …. well, not very fruitful.  Pretty terrible situation, frankly.

    When you’ve been on top for over a thousand years (probably longer), anybody rising up below you looks like oppression.

  30. 30.

    Andrya

    @Martin:   Which is one reason that the extreme income inequality that is developing in the US today is so destructive of democracy.

  31. 31.

    Will

    @Chetan Murthy: Modi definitely has a lot of fascist traits and the BJP party beyond him is even worse. A large contingent of that party is equal opportunity persecutors, destroying mosques, churches, and synagogues. There were Jews in India, but that’s barely the case anymore. Christians probably won’t be too far behind them. There’s a brewing civil war in the northeast with Christians. Muslims get it the worst, I think because they fear they could “rise up” because India has been ruled by Muslims before. There’s some BJP party members that tell Hindus they need to have more babies or the Muslims are going to breed them out. Is wild, and incredibly insane when you look at the population size to think that is even possible.

    I will say India has been better about the caste stuff. It was obvious everywhere I worked. Middle class India is BJP hotbed. Most of them are the first of their family to have a degree, they are uplifting an entire family out of poverty in many cases. They give the BJP almost all of the credit. The caste issues are obviously still there, but the broad support it enjoys across a vast populist poor part of the country as the best chance to economic freedom is very strong.

    Since we are talking about India in a Ukraine thread, I think the most depressing thing is reading the comment section at the Times of India anytime they cover the conflict. A lot of them think Russia has to be crushing the Ukrainians just because they share a lot of the same equipment and they’ve built themselves up in their own minds. It’s like they are rooting for Russia to win. Almost all of them will acknowledge that Russia has attacked Ukraine, but they’ll jump through hoops to explain how Russia was provoked etc. This is a viewpoint reflected across multiple political party members. Congress, BJP, regional parties, they have a lot of members that have old loyalty to Russia that makes them favor the Russians.

  32. 32.

    Bill Arnold

    Good to see this:

    We are very determined. Up to the point that we will withdraw from our positions and go to the rescue of our Bata. You, those who sit in the offices! The landing party does not abandon its own! Do not make fatal mistakes

    And this, from “20 members of the Council on the Foreign and Defense policy”:

    No one should ever blackmail humanity with the threat of using nuclear weapons

    Re “the prospect of losing sovereignty under the pressure of the surviving peoples of the South.”, this is a Russian version of a bog-normal observation that a thermonuclear exchange between Russia and the USA (and GB and France and Israel perhaps) would leave the southern hemisphere relatively undamaged. To the extent that there is a nuclear winter/autumn effect, it would cause crop failures mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. (Northern hemisphere infrastructure would also be seriously damaged even in East/South Asia.)
    Naive, really. There would be no forgivness for a Russia that starts a thermonuclear exchange.

  34. 34.

    Sebastian

    Thank you for the update, Adam. And special thanks for the NAFO meme, it’s one of my favorites, always makes me chuckle heh

  35. 35.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    @Bill Arnold: As a Pagan, I have read quite a lot about Baba Yaga. As much as I can afford to, any way. Some books on folklore can get really expensive. There are some interesting old Soviet films based on Russian folk tales that some times pop up on YouTube

    Pictures At An Exhibition is one of my favourite orchestral pieces. There are so many versions it’s hard to pick one that is really the best. I do find the Tomita version a lot of fun.

  36. 36.

    TheMightyTrowel

    @Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom: there’s an excellent episode of COOL PEOPLE WHO DID COOL THINGS (a radical history podcast hosted by Margaret Killjoy) on Baba Yaga that digs into the history, archaeology and cultural context of her legend. Strongly recommend!

  38. 38.

    Geminid

    There are reports of a concerted sea and air drone attack on Russian ships and facilities in Sevastopol harbor last night.

    Interesting timing, as the Black Sea Grain Initiative expires tomorrow, July 17. Maybe Ukraine has gotten definitive word that Russia will not renew.

    After a sea drone attack on Sevastopol in late October of last year, Russia suspended the Initiative. The Turkish President (and his Defense Minister) apparently backed Putin down, and the convoys continued.

    There was speculation after Zelenskyy visited Istanbul that Erdogan told him that if Russia did not renew, the Turkish Navy would protect convoys. However, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Turkiye threw cold water on this prospect, and he should know something. But Turkiye has real leverage here; Russia cannot afford to fight Turkiye in the western Black Sea, especially with their hands full in Ukraine.

    Even with the Initiative in effect, Russia has slowed shipments to a crawl administratively, slow walking the ship inspections the deal requires.

    So something has to give. While Ukraine (with US assistance) has upgraded infrastructure on the Danube and rail routes, these cannot make up for the large “Panamax” ships that have conveyed grain and oilseed through the Bosphorus.

  39. 39.

    Uncle Cosmo

    @oldster: Thanks for the link to F.M. Slim. I listened to that for a bit and found it very entertaining.

    Well bully for you. For me the clip was too faint for comprehension at max volume both here and on UToob. Anyone have a transcript?

  40. 40.

    Frank Wilhoit

    @Will: ​
     Sing it. I keep pointing out that all persecutors are equal-opportunity persecutors and I keep getting shut down by people who think that the essential thing is to focus exclusively on their particular favorite class of victims.

  41. 41.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Yesterday the Kyiv Post put up an article about this situation, titled:

    Survey: If Russia Pulls Out of Black Sea Corridor

    What are Ukraine’s backup plans? Kyiv Post asks shippers what they think.

  43. 43.

    oldster

    @Uncle Cosmo:

    Sorry I can’t help. My hearing is none too good either, and the recording is old.

    Sometimes yutub has a link for an auto-generated transcript, but I don’t see one this time.

  44. 44.

    Chetan Murthy

    @HeartlandLiberal: You’re not alone, neither in being undisturbed (and sometimes, even a little gleeful) at videos of Russian soldiers dying, nor in feeling concerned at this coarsening of one’s sense of decency.  I still get a little ill seeing Ukrainian soldiers getting injured in their combat vids, and decline to watch the ones that are widely-spread — things like the Ukrainian soldier who steps off his Bradley onto a mine that explodes; he then torniquets the remnant of this leg, and *crawls* back to the Bradley.  I haven’t watched it, and won’t watch it, b/c it would disturb me too much.  But an injured Russian soldier [the rest left out, b/c really, snuff porn, don’t wanna share that] …. ?  Doesn’t disturb me in the least, as long as it’s from a drone.  Ditto that long vid of Ukrainian special forces storming that trench and killing Russian soldiers point-blank, including possibly that Russian mil-blogger.  Not a problem at all.

    I don’t like that my moral sense is getting coarsened, but …. it is what it is.

Comments are closed.