Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

I really should read my own blog.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Innocent people do not delay justice.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

A norm that restrains only one side really is not a norm – it is a trap.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

So it was an October Surprise A Day, like an Advent calendar but for crime.

Republicans choose power over democracy, every day.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

When your entire life is steeped in white supremacy, equality feels like discrimination.

Incompetence, fear, or corruption? why not all three?

Let me file that under fuck it.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 517: The IAEA Confirms that Russia Has Mined the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

War for Ukraine Day 517: The IAEA Confirms that Russia Has Mined the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) experts have observed directional anti-personnel mines on the periphery of the site of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.

During a walkdown on 23 July, the IAEA team saw some mines located in a buffer zone between the site’s internal and external perimeter barriers. The experts reported that they were situated in a restricted area that operating plant personnel cannot access and were facing away from the site. The team did not observe any within the inner site perimeter during the walkdown.

“As I have reported earlier, the IAEA has been aware of the previous placement of mines outside the site perimeter and also at particular places inside. Our team has raised this specific finding with the plant and they have been told that it is a military decision, and in an area controlled by military,” Director General Grossi said.

“But having such explosives on the site is inconsistent with the IAEA safety standards and nuclear security guidance and creates additional psychological pressure on plant staff – even if the IAEA’s initial assessment based on its own observations and the plant’s clarifications is that any detonation of these mines should not affect the site’s nuclear safety and security systems. The team will continue its interactions with the plant,” he added.

In recent days and weeks, the IAEA experts present at the ZNPP have carried out inspections and regular walkdowns across the site, without seeing any heavy military equipment. The IAEA is also continuing to request access to the roofs of the ZNPP’s reactors and their turbine halls, including units 3 and 4 which are of particular interest.

Earlier today, the experts visited the reactor unit 6 main control room, emergency control room, the rooms where electrical cabinets of the safety systems are located, and parts of the turbine hall where they saw the main feedwater pumps, main turbine oil tank and main condenser. While the team was not able to visit all areas in the turbine hall, they did not observe any mines or explosives.

In the evening of 22 July, the IAEA team heard several detonations some distance away from the plant.

Much more at the link!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

When our people are doing everything possible and impossible for the victory, any internal betrayal triggers fury – address by the President of Ukraine

25 July 2023 – 22:23

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today was a long and eventful day.

This day started early. With our usual work on receiving weapons, new defense support packages, including American ones. And I am grateful for today’s package: artillery, missiles for HIMARS, Patriots, NASAMS, drones and much more. Thank you, America!

I spoke with Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Rishi Sunak. As always, it was a very practical and straightforward conversation. First and foremost, we talked about protecting our southern regions, in particular Odesa, the normal life of people and the work of our ports.

Rishi and I discussed possible steps and the possible number of air defense batteries. The United Kingdom can become the leader whose assistance with air defense systems will guarantee real security.

The world knows that the security of our Black Sea ports is the key to peace and stability in the global food market.

Now is the time when it is important to reap the harvest of determination, security determination, so that no one will have to end up as a harvester of chaos later on neither in the countries of Africa nor anywhere on other continents.

Food security is a globally important priority and part of the Ukrainian Peace Formula.

Today I held a preparatory meeting before the first meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, which will take place tomorrow. The consultations are specifically about security in the Black Sea – our ports and our grain exports. We have also begun preparing an interoperability plan together with the Alliance.

The second meeting with government officials and representatives of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine was about European integration, the necessary steps and the decisions that need to be made to launch negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

We are working on preparations for the negotiations on a daily basis.

Today, a non-public but still strategically important event took place: government officials presented the results of the first year of the drone army. Not a project already, but a real Ukrainian drone army. There was a presentation of different types of Ukrainian drones used for defense, as well as a meeting with manufacturers, designers, and donors. Journalists and representatives of civil society had the opportunity to see the potential achieved by the drone army in the first year and the way the army will grow. The defense absolutely needs all drones – from fairly simple Mavic drones to maritime drones and attack drones that can operate at a great distance. By the way, we often discuss this topic at the meeting of the Staff, and often in a raised voice. But there are results, and this can be seen in the news.

There will be more good news involving Ukrainian drones. And this is crucial.

One more crucial point.

Millions of Ukrainians are focused on one thing day after day. Not on themselves, not on their own desires, but on defending the state and their lives.

But unfortunately, some people think that the war is somewhere far away from them.

As if the dome of the Verkhovna Rada, or the walls of some offices, or a list of some powers can shield from reality.

No one will forgive MPs, judges, “military commissars” or any other officials for putting themselves in opposition to the state. For some, it’s about islands and resorts during the war, for others it’s about lining one’s pockets in the military enlistment office, for others it’s about bribes in the courts. For any public official, this is a betrayal of state principles, a betrayal of the interests of society.

I want to warn all MPs, officials, and everyone else in public office. When everyday you search for weapons for the state, when all the attention is on providing artillery, missiles, drones, when you constantly see and feel the moral strength gained for Ukraine by our warriors, our people, who are doing everything possible and impossible for the victory and preservation of freedom, any internal betrayal, any “beach” or any personal enrichment instead of Ukraine’s interests triggers fury at the very least.

Fury. Remember that. Imagine how many millions of hearts in Ukraine felt the same fury.

I want all MPs and officials to hear me now. You must work. In Ukraine and for the sake of the Ukrainian people. I am grateful to those MPs who are truly working for the interests of the state. And those who think about spending more time abroad and look for “profitable” trips so that they can combine them with business, friends or “beaches” – there will not be any of you.

Also, there will not be those who are reluctant to make decisions necessary for our defense or European integration because of some personal benefits. Every law that is needed to strengthen the position of our troops must be adopted. Every law that is necessary for Ukraine to start negotiations with the EU on accession must be adopted. And I don’t want to hear any more excuses. And no one else does. Ukraine does not give you any more time. If you are working for Ukraine, you are needed by Ukraine, if not, you are not.

One more thing.

Today, I was presented with some preliminary results of the inspection of other “military commissars”, besides the former one from Odesa. And the results are disappointing. Of course, law enforcement officers will implement them in a legal manner, and society will see everything.

But I want to say to all such “military commissars” and any other officials who for some reason think that society will just wait, that they can get brazen somewhere in the rear. We will win this war that Russia started. And we will win for Ukraine the kind of state life that will be worthy of our heroic defenders, of everyone who is now giving all their strength to defense. There is no place for the unworthy in such a life.

And lastly.

Today I have signed two decrees on awarding our warriors. 649 defenders of Ukraine have been honored with state awards. Unfortunately, 218 of them were awarded posthumously.

Everyone should remember the cost of statehood, freedom and dignity.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s the Pentagon press release announcing the next tranche of military aid to Ukraine:

RELEASE
IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine
July 25, 2023

Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine’s critical security and defense needs. This authorization is the Biden Administration’s forty-third drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021 as the U.S. government has continuously provided Ukraine with the weapons and equipment it needs for the battlefield. Today’s commitment in security assistance, valued at up to $400 million, includes additional air defense munitions, artillery and other ammunition, armored vehicles, anti-armor weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing war of aggression.

The capabilities in this package include:

1.           Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS);
2.           Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
3.           Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
4.           155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
5.           120mm and 60mm mortar rounds;
6.           32 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers;
7.           Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
8.           Javelin and other anti-armor systems and rockets;
9.           Hornet Unmanned Aerial Systems;
10.         Hydra-70 aircraft rockets;
11.         Tactical air navigation systems;
12.         Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
13.         Over 28 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
14.         Night vision devices and thermal imagery systems; and
15.         Spare parts, training munitions, and other field equipment.

The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements.

Odesa:

Konstyantynivka, Donetsk:

russian terrorists fired the Smerch missiles at a recreation area in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region. At the height of the heat, families rested here on the banks of the reservoir. 7 local residents were injured, including 4 children. Unfortunately, doctors could not save one child, a 10-year-old boy.

Bakhmut:

Kreminna Axis:

Velyka Novosilka:

Kharkiv:

 

Salisbury Plain, Wiltshire England:

Britain’s Foreign Minister has lain down a marker on Russia’s threats to attack Ukrainian grain shipments on the Black Sea:

The Financial Times is reporting that the EU is working on an alternative plan to move Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products through EU ports.

The EU could provide alternative routes for almost all of Ukraine’s grain exports following Russia’s decision to stop their passage through the Black Sea, the bloc’s agriculture commissioner said.

Janusz Wojciechowski said on Tuesday that the EU should expand its “solidarity lanes” — road, river and rail links first established in 2022 after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — to enable more food from Ukraine and Moldova to transit to EU ports for onward shipment to Africa and Asia.

“We are ready to export by solidarity lanes almost everything Ukraine needs [to send] . . . about 4mn tonnes a month. We achieved this volume in November 2022,” he told a press conference in Brussels after a meeting of agriculture ministers.

The EU solidarity lanes currently carry about 60 per cent of Ukraine’s grain exports, with the remaining 40 per cent going via the Black Sea.

Russia’s decision earlier this month to withdraw from the UN-backed Black Sea Grain Initiative, which guaranteed safe passage for ships using the route, has sent prices rising.

Wojciechowski said transit costs, such as those for hiring trains and trucks, for Ukrainian grain were too high and that the EU should subsidise them, otherwise customers would buy cheaper Russian products instead.

He also backed a Ukrainian demand to move customs and health checks for food cargoes from the EU border to its ports to reduce queues and costs.

“Work is intensifying to increase the capacity of solidarity lanes and also to make sure we can streamline the procedures and facilitate trade flows,” said Miriam Garcia Ferrer, European Commission trade spokeswoman.

Lithuania has suggested opening a northern route from Poland to Baltic ports. Vilnius has asked the commission in a letter to invest in the route, which it said could ship 25mn tonnes of grain annually.

Kęstutis Navickas, the Lithuanian agriculture minister, told reporters that European rail companies should pay to upgrade the necessary infrastructure. The railway gauge in Ukraine is different to Poland’s, so cargo has to be moved from one train to another at the border.

Kyiv has also written to Brussels asking for financial support and the transfer of the customs and health checks.

Since the war began in February 2022, 41mn tonnes of grain, oilseeds and related products have left Ukraine through the solidarity lanes, compared with 33mn through the Black Sea.

Wojciechowski also said the commission would next month discuss a request by Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia to extend trade curbs on Ukrainian grain imports. The five frontline states say a glut of the crop has depressed prices for their own farmers and exhausted storage space — although the Polish farm commissioner said much had now been moved on.

They lifted an import ban after the commission agreed that Ukrainian shipments of five types of grain would only transit through the countries en route to other destinations.

Much more at the link!

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

@patron__dsns

Морозиво – моя друга слабкість після качечок, напевно 🤭🍦

♬ united in grief – veleffy

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Ice cream is my second weakness after ducks, I guess 🤭🍦

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

50Comments

  2. 2.

    SiubhanDuinne

    Ice cream is my second weakness after ducks, I guess

    This would be a really good rotating tag!!

    Adam, I rarely comment, but I am more than grateful to you for assembling the information on the War for Ukraine and providing your own learned commentary and analysis every day. Like you, I look forward to the time it isn’t necessary. Pray that day is sooner rather than later.

  4. 4.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, what are your thoughts on the probability Russia will attack commercial and/or civilian vessels in the Black Sea in an effort to stop grain exports (and, presumably, any other goods incoming)?

  5. 5.

    Ivan X

    Dear Adam,

    I am enraged at Russia for inflicting this grotesque and needless suffering. What should I do with my anger?

    Enraged in NYC

  6. 6.

    Jay

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    Jul 23
    A bit of news from me:
    I am no longer part of @KyivIndependent anymore. My history with this media outlet that I co-established in November 2021 is over now.

    And the story goes on — I’m all staying with you guys, the witnesses of the great historic drama of grief, struggle, and good hope that’s happening to 🇺🇦Ukraine now.

    We’ve been together through the most fearsome days and nights as Ukraine was on the brink of downfall and as Putin’s death army was standing just kilometers away from our capital, slaying everything we loved and cared for.

    And we’re hopefully staying together to see the day of deliverance, a great day for freedom when we’ll be able to say the following: “This is it, guys. War is over.”

    I and the KI will continue cooperating to produce a book on the war in Ukraine that I wrote for you. It’s already being edited, and I have a deal with a widely respected publisher based in the United States.

    The book is probably due in early 2024. The manuscript’s working title as of now is: “Guerilla Radio: How Russia Failed in the Battle of Kyiv.”

    It’s a real story of how Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine was unleashed and how we, Ukrainian journalists and just regular residents of Kyiv, were witnessing it from high cabinets of power, from inside our own lives, and from battlefields just next to our homes.

    It’s a story about how one of the most absurd, idiotic, barbaric, unnecessary, delusional, and tragic wars was unleashed, and how human bravery, dedication, and selfless sacrifice made a difference as half of the world was literally burying this country alive.

    And it’s a love letter to Kyiv — the city of hope, the harbor of so many of those who once started their pursuit of happiness from nothing, the messy and chaotic capital of an ancient kingdom that you can’t help but love, and Vladimir Putin’s greatest desire he’ll never get to own.

    And I must tell you guys, I tortured myself into oblivion for months to compose the best book I can for you guys.

    So… stay tuned for updates!

    And carry on going through this war together. Don’t you forget that we have a plan on throwing the party of the century in Kyiv on the first Christmas Day after the Ukrainian victory.

    Cheers!

    https://nitter.net/IAPonomarenko/status/1683234728537669633#m

    Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦
    @IAPonomarenko
    4h
    “I am become the Shiba Inu, the bonker of vatniks”

  8. 8.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Nukular Biskits: I’m sure it is equal parts agitprop and sincere. The problem for Russia is just how much force can Russia’s never project at this point?

  10. 10.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Ivan X: If you can afford it, make a donation to United24 or that Patron animal shelter or one of the other legit organizations supporting Ukraine.

  12. 12.

    anitamargarita

    @SiubhanDuinne: likewise, very much appreciate your work here  Adam. I have some friends and relatives who have fallen into the “NATO provoked this” and your insights have been useful in pushing back on that bs. Thanks!

  13. 13.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, I heard a tiny bit of a discussion (on C-Span radio) about a Chatham House report on How to end russia’s war on Ukraine (58 page .pdf).

    Web version with other stuff.

    They address 9 fallacies that have been presented as a path to ending the war.

    Summary:

    * It’s now or never for Ukraine. A protracted or frozen conflict benefits Russia and hurts Ukraine, as does a ceasefire or negotiated settlement on Russia’s terms. If Ukraine is to avoid these outcomes and turn tenacious defence and incremental battlefield gains into outright victory, it needs far more ambitious international military assistance than it has received to date. This report presents the case for an immediate and decisive increase in such support, seeks to dispel overhyped concerns about provoking Russia, and counsels against accommodating Moscow’s demands

    […]

    It is to the Ukrainian nation that we owe our deepest gratitude. Слава Україні.

    It seems to fit with what Adam has been teaching us. ;-)

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  14. 14.

    RaflW

    I’ve not had much time to read comment threads in recent days, and really just been skimming the (excellent) main UKR threads.

    How much of a global escalation would an attack on a commercial vessel under, say, Panamanian or other registration and owned outside Ukraine? If it really is carrying grain (or arriving empty or with other civilian-use cargo) for the world market, how provocative is a strike?

    I guess what I’m asking is, what might an expected response be by major powers states? Is Putin trying to lure in more direct confrontation? It seems brinksmanship-y. But I may be over reacting.

    TY!

  15. 15.

    Alison Rose

    Dang, if I were one of the officials Zelenskyy was dressing down, I think I’d be a mite scared right about now. I appreciate how vehement and clear he is about what is expected and what will not be tolerated. What I heard was “Cut your bullshit or get the fuck out” and I approve this message. (FB video if you want to hear him without the voiceover. He speaks very firmly.)

    Planting mines around a nuclear plant. SUPER COOL AND GREAT IDEA FROM DEFINITELY NON-INSANE PEOPLE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. Good God.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  16. 16.

    Jay

    @RaflW:

    Ruzzia has bailed on every red line they have declared.

    If we took them at their word, we (NATO) and Ukraine would have been nuked 20 times over, Poland would have been invaded.

    It’s bullshit, and the Ruzzian’s know it.

    They arn’t going to attack a neutral ship in International waters, but they may have mined Ukrainian waters in the hopes that when a Ruzzian mine blows up a neutral ship, they can blame Ukraine.

  17. 17.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    they are “directional mines”, Orc’s Claymore copies. “Front towards enemy.” Command controlled or trip wire activated.

    The possible explosives on the roofs that the  IAEC has not been allowed to see, are more of a concern.

    On the bright side, the Orc’s continue to dig trenches and live in a nuclear wasteland with no protections.

  18. 18.

    Geminid

    Some news on the Black Sea Grain deal today, none of it good. From the Jerusalem Post:

    IMF says says suspension of the Black Sea Grain deal could raise Grain prices 15%.

    Al Jazeera reported on the British warning Dr. Silverman discussed:

    UK warns that Russia may begin targeting civilian ships in the Black Sea.

    British UN Ambassador Barbara Woodward said Tuesday that Britain also has information that “Russia has laid additional sea mines in the approaches to Ukrainian ports.

    And an article in the New Voice of Ukraine is titled:

    Russia could stage ‘false flag’ attack in the Black Sea.

    I believe the story is based on statements from a US State Department official (but my notes are not complete). The New Voice article also described a Russian missile exercise held July 21 where they “demonstratively” sank the Ukrainian corvette Tarnopil. Russia captured the ship when they invaded Crimea in 2014.

  20. 20.

    trollhattan

    @Another Scott: Makes one wonder what our (US) support would be like if there were any reflexive anti-Soviet Republicans left, but that’s where I break character, grimace, and exit, stage right.

    The Cold War land battle was supposed to be across the German frontier, damn it.

  21. 21.

    Yarrow

    Thank you, Adam.  That Patron video is the best. “I am a very serious dog. I have no weaknesses.” Heh.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT, in yesterday’s post Bill Arnold asked about the removal of Qin Gang as Minister of Foreign Affairs for China. There are much speculation inside & outside of China, but nothing solid.

    The official a couple of weeks ago was that Qin suffered from a health issue, but this reason was not repeated when the National People’s Congress Standing Committee made the formal decision to remove him as Minister of FA. There is a lot of gossip that Qin had an affair w/ a news anchor for a Hong Kong station while recently posted to the US as Ambassador, has a child together, & that the women ill-advised posted about her status on Twitter w/o doing enough to hide who her lover might be. While upper echelons of CCP leaderships is not above having extramarital affairs, having these affairs publicized is very embarrassing to the regime & can be career ending.

    After yesterday’s announcement, the Chinese MFA website has removed all traces of Qin’s past activities as Minister of FA, which might suggest that he was purged. OTOH, the NPCSC has not removed Qin from his more powerful position as State Councilor, which it has the power to do. Perhaps the investigation is yet to conclude, & the CCP leadership is waiting for a more solemn occasion (such as full NPC session) to remove Qin as State Councilor.

    For the time being, Wang Yi (Qin’s predecessor, current member of the Politburo, & the actual foreign policy point person in the Party-State bureaucracy) has resumed his role as Minister of FA, but it is probably a temporary arrangement.

  25. 25.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Jay: The fact that the Olenivka massacre was the russians was known by nearly everyone, I guess except the UN, a year ago. Do they want a cookie for publishing this a year later? Fuck that.

  29. 29.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    as you well know, it’s a procedural process, and a political process.

    The political process often “mucks” up the procedural process.

    That’s why none of the Dubya Dubya Me Too crew are in jail.

  30. 30.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:
    Thanks. I was mainly wondering if he was being punished for foreign policy missteps of some sort.

    the Chinese MFA website has removed all traces of Qin’s past activities as Minister of FA

    This is so tacky. The site (english site url) is archived several times a day by web.archive.org, and certainly by others as well.
    Are such archives blocked in China?

  31. 31.

    Geminid

    @RaflW: The last grain ship to sail under the Grain Initiative happened to be Turkish flagged. Maybe the first one back will be Turkish as well. But it sounds like there will need to be some demining before any ship sails.

    Turkiye is the only Black Sea NATO country capable of challenging Russia’s control of the Black Sea. That seemed to be a factor last November, when Russia suspended the Grain Initiative and Turkiye backed them down. For now, though, Turkish President Erdogan wants to bring Russia back into the deal voluntarily, and has even suggested further accommodations to Russia by the UN.

    At his joint news conference with President Zelenskyy in Istanbul July 8, Erdogan said he would be meeting with Putin in August. The Kremlin says Putin will visit Turkiye but that the date is not set. The timing of this meeting may be bound up with resumption of the Grain Initiative but if it is, Erdogan’s not saying.

  32. 32.

    Urza

    @Adam L Silverman: I may have missed it already, whats your thoughts on the talk of the Wagner group making a strike through Poland to unite the outlying Russian territory to Belarus?  That seems like a terrible idea as it would guarantee NATO involvement.  On the other hand it could be a feint to get troops ready to reinvade northern Ukraine.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @Urza:

    The Polish Land Forces are 70,000 strong, not including reserves, have 647 tanks, 1700 IFV’s and APC’s, over 97 Attack Helicopters.

    They are one of the best in regards to NATO Forces in Europe.

    Even with the entire Belorussian Military backing them, Wagner has no chance.

    As for Wagner and Belorussia attacking Ukraine, the TDF has built massive defenses and the beavers have turned the border area back into the swamps and ponds it used to be famous for.

  34. 34.

    Jay

    Dmitri
    @wartranslated
    10h
    Head of the State Duma Defense Committee Kartapolov objects to amendments to the Russian mobilisation law which would see fathers of several children and fathers of disabled children be exempt from total mobilisation, which he says is “in the air”.

    Looks like Kartapolov and his owner Kremlin Looney are ready to fight until the last Russian.

    https://nitter.net/wartranslated/status/1683861891481731073#m

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: I don’t think so, Qin as Foreign Minister is just an executor of policy, Wang Yi would have greater input in policy formulation.

    If the news anchor that Qin allegedly had an affair w/ turns out to have been a foreign agent (for the US, UK, Japan or Taiwan), that would certainly be grounds for being purged, even if an investigation does not find evidence that he had leaked any secrets.

    Removing all references to Qin in the MFA website (whether from his time as Foreign Minister, Ambassador to the US, or MFA spokesperson) & keeping him as State Councilor send opposite messages. Perhaps overzealous staff at the MFA, or the other shoe will drop soon wrt the State Councilor position, or both.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    AlJazeera.com:

    Medan, Indonesia – Elon Musk’s aspirations for X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, have hit a stumbling block in Indonesia after the site X.com was blocked under the country’s curbs on online pornography and gambling.

    [ Womp, womp ]

    NotebookCheck.net:

    Tesla has issued one of the 62 recalls that analysts predicted the Model Y will undergo during its life cycle, this time for a fault that will actually require visiting a service center, rather than a simple OTA update. Certain Model Y, Model X, and Model S units have apparently been carrying misaligned front cameras, says Tesla, and gives a VIN check recall tool to probe if a particular vehicle has been affected.

    The misaligned front camera is not a trivial recall like the recent one for the Model Y trunk’s water leakage, as it actually affects the driver and passengers’ safety. In the recall, Tesla mentions that an out-of-spec camera pitch angle could lead to “active safety features, including Automatic Emergency Braking, Forward Collision Warning and Lane keeping assist, to be unavailable…”

    What’s scarier is that the emergency braking and collision warning systems actually disactivate “without alerting the driver,” adds Tesla, all the while they may think that the vehicle’s safety systems are on and working. Apparently, a batch of about 1,337 vehicles is affected in the US and Tesla asks their owners to find time and visit a service center for a fix as it adds a chronology of the findings:

    […]

    Kinda old news at this point, but … Reuters.com (from June 1):

    WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) – SpaceX’s Starlink, the satellite communications service started by billionaire Elon Musk, now has a Department of Defense contract to buy those satellite services for Ukraine, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

    “We continue to work with a range of global partners to ensure Ukraine has the resilient satellite and communication capabilities they need. Satellite communications constitute a vital layer in Ukraine’s overall communications network and the department contracts with Starlink for services of this type,” the Pentagon said in a statement.

    […]

    It’s good the DoD has that tied down now.

    I have a feeling that there’s going to be a re-branding of all this stuff in coming years. Maybe Melon will get in the movie business and remake a certain Bo Derek movie and call it “X”…

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  37. 37.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Removing all references to Qin in the MFA website (whether from his time as Foreign Minister, Ambassador to the US, or MFA spokesperson) & keeping him as State Councilor send opposite messages. Perhaps overzealous staff at the MFA, or the other shoe will drop soon wrt the State Councilor position, or both.

    Just speculation, but there is no conflicting message here if the intended recipient is Qin himself.

    He is, I understand, unreservedly loyal to Xi. But he may have committed some offense calling for a warning shot short of removal from the Council, where he is still a useful and dependable ally to Xi

    ETA: I am put in mind of Xi’s early leadership career as a crusader against “corruption,” wherein every functionary exposed as corrupt and removed was replaced by another loyal to Xi, until a substantial fraction of governance owed its position to him. I cannot help wondering whether this is a reprise of that sort of very Early-Stalinesque maneuvering.

  38. 38.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Geminid: I agree completely that Erdogan is the key player here. There is no conceivable power play to back the Russians down on shipping without Turkish consent and coooperation.

  40. 40.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Alison Rose: Elite CCP politics, while extremely opaque, does not operate like Putin’s. If a top bureaucrat is purged, there will be official announcements in state media. Since a top bureaucrat is almost invariably a CCP member, an investigation generally starts from the Party’s internal disciplinary commission, which typically happen very quickly (in a matter of weeks or a couple of months). At the start of investigation it would normally be announced in state media that a bureaucrat has been suspended/removed from position & being investigated. After the extra-judicial party investigation is concluded, the case is generally referred to the legal system for trial & the evidence gathered from the party investigation are supplied to the legal process. The outcome of the legal trial for such politically sensitive cases are foregone conclusions, & the trials typically proceed rapidly, too. At every step of the process, there would be announcements in state media explaining the justification for these steps. If someone is purged in the CCP system, no one is left in any doubt. There is no slipping over balcony railings (wink wink).

    Back in 2010, when the CIA’s network of informants that had burrowed deep into high levels of the central Party-state bureaucracy was rolled up, one of the agent & his wife was allegedly executed in the courtyard in front of his workplace, in plain view of his colleagues, as a warning.

    What is unusual w/ Qin is that none of the above has happened.

  42. 42.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: At this point, most people in high positions of power in the Party-state apparatus are considered Xi’s men, w/ varying degrees of affinity. At the same time as Qin went missing, the commander of the PLA Rocket Forces (co-equal branch to the Army, Navy & Air Force) was supposedly removed from post & a deputy commander supposedly committed suicide.

    My wildest, evidence free, speculation is that Qin & the PLARF commander unwittingly got themselves entangled w/ CIA agents, such as their mistresses, uncovered via Chinese counterintelligence operations, & thus have been soft purged. CIA Director William Burns recently stated at the Aspen Conference that the CIA is making progress in rebuilding its HUMINT network in China, after it was devastated in 2010.  Xi’s anti-corruption campaign & centralized decision making might have closed certain vulnerabilities that had allowed the CIA to penetrate so deep into the central Party-State apparatus in the ’00s, but his power consolidation likely have generated other grievances that foreign intelligence agencies could exploit.

    Of course, Burns made his comments after Qin & the PLARF commander disappeared, so it would have been curious for him to make such statement if what would be the CIA’s most highly prized assets in China had just been compromised. Also, the stories about the PLARF commanders were reported by Taiwanese & Indian media, both notorious of their unreliability and penchant for trafficking in CTs.

  43. 43.

    Geminid

    Two drone stories from the dynamically named “Clash Report.” The first repeats a CNN report:

      Iran is helping Russia build UAV stockpile that is expected to be ‘orders of magitude’ greater than previous arsenal,” US says.

    Russia, with the help of Iran, is building a factory for the production of drones in the country, which could have a significant effect on the war in Ukraine.

    No timeline is given for production.

    Meanwhile, Iran’s neighbor and competitor in this field is not standing still:

      Turkish-made BAYKAR Bayrakater TB-2 UCAV has been armed with Roketsan’s IIR guided MAM-L munition. MAM-L has a range of 25 kilometers [and] will be able to hit its target in all weather conditions.

    That’s a lot of acronyms!

    So the question is: will these munitions be field tested by Ukraine’s experienced TB-2 operators? They have been flying this strike drone since 2021, when they first used it in the Donbass conflict.

    According to Oryx’s Stijn Mitzer and others, Turkiye and Ukraine have maintained a kind of blackout regarding Turkish weapons, so we might not know; the Russians would find out the hard way.

    Bayraktar brothers Selcuk and Halak have been supportive of Ukraine in word and deed, and when President Zelenskyy visited Istanbul recently, Halak Bayraktar greeted him at the airport. Selcuk Bayraktar’s father-in-law happens to be Turkish President Erdogan, and he might want see what the kids have come up with.

    Fun Bayraktar facts: the late Ozdumir Bayraktar earned a degree from Istanbul Technical University in 1972, and then a Masters. In 1984 he started a CNC precision machining company that produced engines, pumps etc. for Turkiye’s auto industry. His son Selcuk earned a Masters Degree from MIT but cut short his Ph.D. studies in 2004 to return home and become Baykar Industries’ Chief Technical Officer (Baykar was getting into drone design and production by then). His brother Halak earned a Masters in Industrial Engineering from Columbia and is Baykar Industry’s CEO.

    The company has 3100 employees, but they may be hiring more now that Erdogan returned from his recent visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE with upwards of $2 billion in drone contracts.

  45. 45.

    daveNYC

    I’m pretty sure that Russia has more than enough capability to shut down ships coming out of Ukraine.  As pathetic as their Black Sea fleet is, they still have enough strength to lob some anti-ship missiles at something, and that’s not getting into the air launched stuff.

    Cargo ships are big and slow, and it’s very easy for someone with a view of the Odessa harbor to drop a line to someone when they see one undock.  Russia doesn’t even have to sink everything, just put in enough hits so the insurance numbers become unworkable.

  46. 46.

    Another Scott

    @daveNYC: +1

    But they don’t even have to actually attack anything.  They just have to make the insurance companies think that they might attack something.  Most commercial shippers won’t go where their insurance companies won’t let them (and there may even be laws about such things – I dunno).

    I ass-u-me something will be done to work around VVP’s threats, but it may take a while.  In the meantime, grain markets go nuts, costs go up, poor people are hurt, and VVP gets another temporary “win” by showing he’s a tough guy while not spending anything other than words.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  48. 48.

    Bill Arnold

    @Another Scott:

    In the meantime, grain markets go nuts,

    Think of it as use of cruise missiles to manipulate global grain prices higher. (And mines.)
    That’s the play. Destruction of a competitor’s absolutely, undeniably civilian food-related infrastructure and stockpiles of food, to raise global food prices. Then jump in as a crocodile-smiling benevolent savior with a record harvest.

  49. 49.

    Geminid

    @daveNYC: This equation would be altered if the grain ships (and the needed minesweepers) were escorted by Turkish warships and fighter jets. The Turkish Navy outguns the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and their air force is the 3rd largest in NATO.

    Turkish President Erdogan clearly prefers to work this problem out diplomatically. He wants to avoid a shooting war with Russia that might not be contained in the western Black Sea. But when Russia suspended the Grain Initiative last November, Erdogan and his Defense Minister both said that continuation of the shipments was in Turkiye’s “vital national interest” and the shipments continued. I think Russia may have been caught by surprise here.

    For now, Erdogan appears to be leaving this matter in the hands of his trusted Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan. Erdogan may have a Plan B entailing Turkish naval escorts, but I think very few people know if he does and what it is. Fidan probably does.

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: Another possible model is “struggle within the Council.” Here we would have some resistance to Xi growing, or at least a bloc outside his control, which saw an opportunity in an indiscretion by Qin and demanded his demotion as a way of weakening Xi. The compromise solution is then to scrape Qin off the MFA, while preserving him on the Council.

    No evidence whatever in support, just trying to fit pieces together. It’s like latter-day Kremlinology…

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