(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Before we begin, two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is hanging in there. The good news is that after two chemo treatments her lymph nodes have shrunk back to normal size. The bad news is that she’s had a very strong reaction to the two chemo treatments. As a result, she had a rough weekend. The oncology vet, who is excellent, decided today that they would give her treatments to ensure she’s fully hydrated, treat her irritated stomach/GI system, try to stimulate her appetite, and just do overall system support. The difference between before and after her visit is very clear. She’s eating again, though we’re keeping it to a small amount for tonight. Provided she continues to stabilize and strengthen back up, they’ll give her her next chemo treatment next week.
Second, as you can imagine, because she had a long weekend, I had a long, worrisome, and not very restful weekend. I want to apologize if I have been overly curt, cranky, and irritable – as in more than my usual sterling and pleasant personality – over the last couple of days.
The Russians once again started the week by bombarding Kharkiv.
Update from Kharkiv: Two attacks hit the city, with one striking near the dog shelter. At least five gliding bombs targeted the region. Settlements near Kupiansk endured heavy artillery fire. pic.twitter.com/y9iiWMb2rI
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 29, 2024
As long as 🇷🇺 aircraft freely roam the skies, Kharkiv Obl will endure daily bombardments. Today, 🇷🇺 struck Kharkiv twice, injuring a civilian & damaging an apartment building. These deadly aircraft should fear approaching, knowing they risk being downed, only this can deter them. pic.twitter.com/PRpv2uTa52
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 29, 2024
They also hit Odesa. As of now the butcher’s bill is four dead people, one dead dog who was killed while out for a walk – the human survived, and twenty-seven wounded. Among the wounded are two children and a pregnant woman.
A tragic day for #Odesa.#Russian forces launched a ballistic missile, reportedly containing cluster munitions, at one of the city's most popular locations among residents and visitors.
As of 10 PM Kyiv time, four people were reported killed as a result of the missile hit. One… pic.twitter.com/ikP84A7CbP
— UkraineWorld (@ukraine_world) April 29, 2024
A tragic day for #Odesa.
#Russian forces launched a ballistic missile, reportedly containing cluster munitions, at one of the city’s most popular locations among residents and visitors.
As of 10 PM Kyiv time, four people were reported killed as a result of the missile hit. One more man died due to a stroke.
A total of 32 people were wounded, with 25 currently hospitalized, including two children and a pregnant woman.
One girl, not yet five years old, is in extremely critical condition. Six more adults are also in intensive care, according to Oleh Kiper’s report.
Ukrainian air defence missile chasing Russian cruise missile, presumably Kh-101. pic.twitter.com/ht5YFosor0
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
All Intelligence Agencies of Our Partners are Informed of the Current Threats and Prospects – Address by the President
29 April 2024 – 21:46
Dear Ukrainians!
I have just received reports on the situation in Odesa following a Russian missile strike and in Kharkiv following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike. Unfortunately, there are fatalities in Odesa. My condolences to the families and friends. Many people have been wounded – all of them are being provided with medical aid. Local services and rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine responded immediately. It is important that all services, all our people, on whose work the lives of Ukrainians depend, are as efficient and fast as possible. Prompt assistance and protection of life that is timely and courageous enough are what help us all in Ukraine to endure.
Today, we talked a lot about speed in our negotiations with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Timely delivery of weapons to our warriors, timely and sufficient decisions on air defense for Ukraine are what we need right now to protect lives. Especially since our partners really have all the necessary systems, really have all the necessary quality of weapons, so that our warriors can operate much more effectively. I thank Jens for his understanding and willingness to help. The daily Russian missile attacks, as well as the daily attempts of the occupier to destroy more of our positions, can all be stopped. The Russian offensive plans can be thwarted. For this, Ukrainian strength must be backed up by sufficient support from partners: “Patriots” that are needed here, the 155 mm caliber that must sound as strong as possible at the front, the weapons with sufficient range that can and must destroy Russian logistics. All intelligence agencies of our partners are informed of the current threats and prospects. We must do everything to achieve our goals – the common goals of everyone in the world who despises terrorists.
Today, I also held a meeting of the Staff. The Commander-in-Chief delivered a detailed report. The frontline. Our positions. The hottest areas. The supplies we expect. There was also a report by the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and representatives of the Coordination Headquarters on negotiations for the release of POWs. It is extremely important for our state to maintain clear communication with the families of the POWs. There must be clarity, to the extent possible, regarding each name, each person, regarding the measures being taken to bring our people home.
I thank everyone who truly cares about our people and our entire country, I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights against Russian evil.
Glory to Ukraine!
The reason:
A daughter got to see her Warrior Dad. But only for a moment.
📹: yrec228/tiktok pic.twitter.com/3jvTAm7xBz
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania:
The foreign ministers of all thre Baltic states are now linking the Russian GPS jamming with risks of an air disaster.
During weekend, the jamming forced two Finnish flights to turn around and the Tartu – Helsinki line is now under threat of closing. https://t.co/M105wTByu6— Markus Jonsson (@auonsson) April 29, 2024
From The Financial Times via the Internet Archive:
Baltic ministers have warned that GPS jamming blamed on Russia risks causing an air disaster after the interference with navigation signals forced two Finnish flights to turn around mid-journey.
The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all warned separately at the weekend of the dangers of GPS jamming across the Baltic Sea region, which has increased in recent weeks.
On Thursday and Friday, two Finnair flights from Helsinki to the Estonian city of Tartu were forced by the GPS jamming to turn around and return to Finland as they were unable to navigate safely to their planned destination.
“If someone turns off your headlights while you’re driving at night, it gets dangerous. Things in the Baltic region near Russian borders are now getting too dangerous to ignore,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, told the Financial Times.
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, added: “We consider what is happening with GPS as part of Russia’s hostile activities, and we will definitely discuss it with our allies.
“Such actions are a hybrid attack and are a threat to our people and security, and we will not tolerate them.”
Tens of thousands of civilian flights have been affected by the GPS jamming in recent months, according to experts. The jamming, which affects all GPS users in the area when it is in operation, has also impeded signals used by boats in the Baltic Sea, leading to warnings from the Swedish navy about the safety of shipping.
GPS jamming is easy to conduct with relatively cheap equipment, according to experts.
No country has acknowledged being behind the interference with signals in the Baltics, but officials in the region said there was little doubt that Russia was behind the jamming both from its mainland and its exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.
A senior official said one theory was that Russia was trying to protect Kaliningrad from potential attacks by Ukrainian drones.
The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.
Australia:
Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million.
The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as… pic.twitter.com/eu2wnKAGo1
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 29, 2024
Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million.
The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as combat helmets, rigid-hull inflatable boats, boots, fire masks, and generators.
We are grateful to our Australian friends for their unwavering support. Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇦🇺
@DefenceAust
The Czech Republic via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL):
Czech police confirmed on April 29 that agents of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) were involved in two ammunition depot blasts that killed two workers near the eastern Czech village of Vrbetice in 2014. In 2021, Prague accused Moscow of being involved in the blasts and expelled several Russian diplomats. Moscow denied any involvement. The Czechs said two Russian men were involved in the explosion, identifying them as Russian citizens who have also been accused by Britain of participating in the 2018 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England. To read the original story by RFE/RL’s Russian Service, click here.
Hungary:
Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world's largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.… https://t.co/sqyWCwStO0
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024
Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world’s largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.
Makes sense!
Either NY City or south Florida depending on where Rudy is holed up these days.
They just can’t quit criming
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) April 29, 2024
Oy vey!
Marinka:
"Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to"
A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.
Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.
In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front… pic.twitter.com/pFlETTbQcY
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024
“Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to”
A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.
Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.
In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front line.
It enjoyed a peaceful life for years and only sometimes heard rare distant gunshots of that pointless Russian-sponsored standoff that was only fading out without a Russian command for war.
Kinds used to go to schools, and local folks worked their jobs and elected their local administration.
And then Russia came to “liberate” Mariinka in 2022.
Now, what used to be Mariinka is under Russian occupation following nearly two years of fierce fighting.
This is the hellscape of the “Russian liberation of Ukraine.”
Population now: 0.
https://youtu.be/OBPxaNB_NUA
Kharkiv:
Two senior Ukrainian intel officials described Russia’s attacks along the frontline and missile strikes on Kharkiv as softening the battlefield before a major offensive. The officials expect Russia to launch a new large-scale assault in late May or June.https://t.co/nC3vapdpEq
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 29, 2024
From The Financial Times:
After Congress approved a long-delayed $61bn in US military aid to Ukraine this week, Russia gloated that advanced western weapons would not turn the tide on the battlefield.
More than at any point since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia’s president appears “very self-assured and happy” in recent months, said a person who knows him well. “Let’s see if the military aid changes that.”
While Ukraine was running out of western aid and struggled to rotate its exhausted troops, Russia took advantage of its superior firepower and manpower and made incremental advances across the front line.
Two senior Ukrainian intelligence officials described Russia’s current attacks along key areas of the frontline and missile and drones strikes on Kharkiv and similarly important cities as softening the battlefield before a bigger offensive operation.
The officials said they expected Russia to launch a new large-scale offensive in late May or June.
After its initial blitzkrieg failed, Russia has sought to grind down Ukraine by favouring quantity over quality on the battlefield.
Russia fires five shells for each returning salvo from Ukraine’s forces, while the ratio is even higher in some flashpoints along the line of contact, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies the Russian military.
“The aid won’t cancel out Russian advantages this year, but it will allow Ukrainian forces to defend their positions with counter-battery fires and can be used to slow or halt Russian advances,” Massicot said.
Boosted by a record Rbs10.8tn ($118.5bn) in spending on defence this year — six per cent of gross domestic product — Russia’s arms industry has built up production several times over, with factories working around the clock, according to officials.
Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec, the state defence conglomerate, last November said Russia was making 2.5 times more artillery and multiple launch systems than before, while increasing production of some types of ammunition by more than 60 times.
Those sheer numbers, however, mask Moscow’s inability to turn that firepower into a significant breakthrough — something Russian experts say it could only do with more advanced weaponry.
More at the link.
The Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot has a new assessment of the potential Russian spring/summer offensive and the potential effects of the US military aid finally making it to Ukraine. From the Thread Reader App:
The U.S. supplemental has passed and aid is on the way to Ukrainian frontlines. But months of delay for ammo and manpower have come at a cost. Problems cannot easily be undone, especially in Donetsk. A brief thread on what Russian decisions say about their summer plans. 🧵First, Russia’s efforts suggest their priority remains advancing to the borders of Donetsk, where they add reserve units, the VKS operates intensely, and where improved recon-strike (40-100km behind Ukrainian lines + SS-26 SRBM) is hitting high value assets / 2The situation is now critical in Chasiv Yar and this thread from @Tatarigami_UA is very useful to describe why: /3In the last week, Russia now has a salient near Ocheretyne, currently about 5KM x 5KM wide. Russian doctrine says that an operational breakthrough against prepared defenses is possible after fires preparation of 15-30km and a suitable reserve force is ready.In the last ten days, Russian forces committed 3 critical brigade elements forward – the 74th, 35th, and 30th (from 41st CAA). These forces were used in final stages of the battle of Avdiivka and have been recovering for the last month. Map @InkvisiitThese experienced brigade elements are supported by various DPR and reserve units. Concentrating them in the salient is indicative of the priority of this effort. Also, if Ukrainian forces can target them, they could degrade some of the most skilled brigades there.The 74th just raised a flag at Berdychi, Gen Syrskyi said units withdrew from there in advance.Thoughts from @inkvisiit on defensive challenges that could await Russian forces next, although these defensive positions are in various stages of readiness and Ukrainian units are understrength. @bradyafr also does great work on this.Russian forces edge closer to Pokrovsk. If they achieve that objective and control the roads (or have fire control of them), the situation becomes very difficult for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, leaving only a few strongholds near Kramatorsk – Sloviansk.While ammunition availability will begin to improve shortly, manpower is still an unresolved challenge to frontline units, especially against the weight of this Russian effort in Donetsk.What of the talk of a large Russian offensive this summer? Russian actions and posture suggests Donetsk is the priority. Russian discussions of a “sanitary zone” of indeterminate depth near Kharkiv are also concerning; as are strikes; but i can’t determine that its resourced.What about a renewed offensive from Russia this summer/fall? To answer, it will be important to survey border areas (and major training grounds, and repair facilities) to see what sort of reserve pipeline is underway now – or not.Russian mobilization probably deserves its own thread because its requirements are contingent on multiple moving parts. for now, i would say that there is not an imminent or critical need for mobilized manpower to hold Russian lines, as they faced in the summer of 2022.It’s also important to zoom out of the frontline a bit to put this recent Donetsk activity in perspective. The Donetsk region is not stable for Ukrainian forces but there are other areas where Russian advances are slow or holding.I recommend reading this thoughtful thread from @ralee85 for his reactions to the supplemental and the urgent manpower issues for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that can’t be pushed aside.In sum, delays in manpower and ammunition replenishment have come with a cost on the battlefield. In this moment, Russian commanders are trying to achieve progress before their opportunities are reduced by more ammunition the hands of Ukrainian units. / end
Ukrainian (free) Donetsk:
This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.
Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell… https://t.co/fCNHPUnwXS pic.twitter.com/BGHXeGvW5h
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.
Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell down, slept, then woke up and started walking again.
In the evening, our military found her. The “White Angel” police crew took Lidiia Stepanivna to a shelter for evacuees, where she received all the necessary assistance.
The Bakhmut front:
Russians use of ‘turtle’ tanks in attacks spread to the Bakhmut front. https://t.co/ZtIVa4jXR2 pic.twitter.com/aXSAcDFcxP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
As said, a Russian BMP that was captured today. Eastern front (presumably bakhmut area). https://t.co/EiP0WdkCvT pic.twitter.com/5iaEv2tJmp
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
/3. Another interesting detail is that the BMP-1 is completely sealed on all sides and in the front with anti drone cages. This means that it cannot use its gun at all. pic.twitter.com/TQtRtXakD1
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
The Republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya, Russia:
Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.
The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an… pic.twitter.com/QENvfGUqR4
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 29, 2024
Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.
The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an IED at the officers and opened fire. A shootout began and a second explosive device went off on one of the criminals.
Five attackers were killed by return fire. They have been identified as a group that carried out another attack on police just a week ago, on 22 April.
An extremely worrying trend for Russia in the wake of the Crocus City Hall attack and rumours of neighbouring Chechnya’s [Ichkeria] Ramzan Kadyrov’s looming health issues, threatening to plunge the region into chaos.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First some adjacent material.
This family evacuated from Bakhmut about a year and a half ago. They brought all their pets with them.
They now live and work all together in an animal shelter.
Russia has brought so much suffering to our people.
📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/DteTvHFiZN
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
Georgia, you are so courageous. Let no one say you are small or defenseless, or someone can dictate to you. You are a great country with a great history, where our common enemy has always sought to interfere by force. ბრძოლებით შეგეძლებათ – დაგეგმებთ #Georgia #NoToRussianLaw https://t.co/jUMhpE81Nu
— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 28, 2024
The Georgian at the end of Patron’s tweet translates to:
You will be able to fight – you will plan
Open thread!
YY_Sima Qian
Adam, quick question, the recent maps of unit dispositions in Donetsk have shown a massive concentration of Russian Army units poised to try to exploit any breakthroughs, versus a single line of Ukrainian units holding the front. Are the positions of Ukrainian reserves purposefully not shown, or there no longer any significant reserves in the sector, & no defense in depth (other than Kramatorsk-Sloviansk)?
japa21
Thanks Adam.
Jay
As always, thank you, Adam.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/Tendar/status/1784992418871345378#m
Martin
Kristy Noem approves this bombing campaign.
(Don’t blame me, she brought this on herself.)
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I honestly do not know.
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/wartranslated/status/1784860717159477315#m
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: @Jay: You’re most welcome.
pieceofpeace
Ach, may Rosie’s chemo reaction reverse itself quickly. Not easy on you, I’m sure.
I daily feel informed by you and others of this travesty, and by the 4th paragraph realize how little I know, and perhaps that’s the extent I want to know about this or any war. Attention to it tests the best of good natures.
Thank you for this report, Adam.
Wombat Probability Cloud
Adam, thank you.
Thoughts on an appropriate response to the GPS jamming?
Jay
https://nitter.poast.org/JayinKyiv/status/1785025495605633370#m
West of the Rockies
Well, it would be twenty kinds of awesome if the world retaliated and started jamming Russian radar and hitting their various infrastructure systems with malware. Russia is constantly pissing in the punch bowl. Punch ’em back right in the sack.
Betty Cracker
Fingers and paws crossed in the swamp that Rosie continues to stabilize and can resume treatment. Pulling for that girl!
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: Yes. I also chose not to post that tweet or several others from reliable sources because of the imagery embedded in them.
Adam L Silverman
@pieceofpeace: She’s much improved just over the past five hours. She’s now had several treats, two small meals, a bunch of water, is less shaky on her feet. Thanks for the good thoughts and the kind words.
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: Mass drivers.
Honestly, defeating that type of thing is well outside my area of expertise other than the obvious blow up the spoofers.
Adam L Silverman
@Betty Cracker: Thanks!
Bill Arnold
@Wombat Probability Cloud:
GPS jamming in the Baltics has nothing to do with Ukraine, and is a hostile act, arguably an act of war, against NATO countries. So:
1) Determine the precise locations of the sites involved. If aircraft, tougher but doable.
2) Declare that large-area GPS jamming affecting countries that are not Russia will be declared a hostile act if it does not cease within 2 days.
3) Start with expulsion of ambassadors and other Russians (it’s either Russian or puppets controlled by Russia), and escalate from there.
Old School
Glad to hear Rosie’s treatment seems to productive. Hopefully she doesn’t have that many more to go.
Another Scott
Fingers crossed that Rosie’s recovery gets easier.
Meanwhile, … Ukraine Alert at the AtlanticCouncil.org:
Politics is slow, but things are moving. Continuing to pressure VVP and his henchmen is an important part of defeating them.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Bill Arnold:
I’m not sure that’s true. For obvious reasons, the Baltics have be gung-ho for the Ukrainian cause, and it strikes me as warning/intimidation for countries that send weapons to Ukraine: “you will pay a price, your airline industry will suffer, and you may have a few jetliner crashes if you don’t stop”.
PS Adam, have put in a good word for Rosie with my Friend upstairs. It can’t hurt!
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Ukraine has been launching attack drones as far as St. Petersburg Oblast, so it is not surprising that Russia is employing wide area GPS spoofing (since it does not know the paths the Ukraine drones will take) to inhibit their effectiveness.
However, greyzone tactics against Ukraines Baltic supports is surely part of it, too.
emjayay
@Bill Arnold: Yes. What Russia has been doing for two years should be headlines every day. It is beyond immoral and outrageous. Biden is on the side of Ukraine but should also be making more of this outrage.
I guess the UN, which should be dealing with this, is constrained by the Russia veto. We should be agitating there more anyway.
Now can we talk about Donald and his somehow Russia and Orban fanboy cult in relation to all of this?
emjayay
@Andrya: There are no stairs and no one up there.
zhena gogolia
@Adam L Silverman: That’s good.
Andrya
@emjayay: We can respectfully disagree. As I said, it can’t hurt.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
just a little pedantry,
spoofing is when a GPS signal is generated that, because non-hardened GPS’s report the strongest signal as the location, generates a wrong position reading. Three emitters are needed for this, widely dispersed.
jamming, is when a more powerful signal is created that the GPS reads as “no signal”
The ruZZians have 4 available jammer systems. One is a handheld with a range of 4 km, but does not detect the frequency of the gps, and must be manually adjusted to the right frequency.
Another is a portable modular system with a 25km range, but it jams all GPS type signals along with some other frequencies.
The third is a large, truck mounted complex with multiple antenna’s with a 100km range. Ukraine has already HIMARS’d a couple.
The last is a large, permanently installed dish array, that is believed to jam a portion of the satellite arrays themselves, not the receivers. There is one in Kaliningrad Oblast.
The reports so far are of jamming, (no signal) not spoofing, (wrong location given).
Unless you are eyeballing your GPS/SatNav, or in the case of a Marine or Aircraft system, there is code to note sudden “impossible” changes of position, you won’t notice a “spoof”, you just won’t be where the GPS/NavSystem says you are.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Thanks for the explanation.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: @Jay:
The potential for jamming and spoofing has been known for a very long time, of course. There are always Spy vs. Spy things going on in EW and countermeasures. Clever people are always working on the problem.
e.g. Liu at USENIXSecurity21:
Full PDF of the paper (19 page .pdf).
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
@Another Scott:
That’s a clever solution to spoofing.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Jay:
Thanks for the background.
I assume the Russians don’t care all that much if Kaliningrad airspace is jammed in the process, though it makes me wonder what percentage of goods and materials arrive by sea versus overland (train and truck from Belarus, perhaps?). If Russia fucks with air traffic in the Baltic states then they could return the favor by impeding traffic to Kaliningrad. Responding with jamming into Russian airspace (assuming the gear is quite directional) would hamper Ukrainian drone use unless there was coordination as to frequencies, codes, etc. to avoid those side effects.
In any case, I agree with Bill Arnold that there should be a strong and escalating response, by NATO.
Jay
@Wombat Probability Cloud:
Since the ruZZian reinvasion, Kaliningrad has been supplied by sea and air. I am pretty sure that the ruZZian GPS jamming is also jamming GPS/GLONASS for Kaliningrad, but knowing when a ship is coming in or an aircraft is due, they can stop the jamming long enough for a landing or harbour, or bad visibility, when you really need GPS/GLONASS rather than maps/charts, a compass, altimeter and Mark I eyeballs.
I also suspect that the Tobol 14ts227 system has no countermeasures, other than an incoming Stormshadow. Because it tracks and beams signals at the satellites that is stronger than the signals the satellites themselves are sending out, and those bounce back, it will also be hard to “prove” that the ruZZian’s are jamming the satellites.
Most ground based jammers can be triangulated. The Tobol 14ts227 would require 3 “spy” satellites in between the GPS sats and the Tobol 14ts227 system to get a signal fix on location and “prove” the jamming.
It would probably be more productive to just arrange a “smoking accident” for the system.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Kind of. It depends on knowledge of the constellation position. If ideal Kepler law orbits applied, this would not be a problem, but tidal effects, Earth oblateness, and LEO atmospheric drag cause significant drifts in orbital parameters that are hard to model long-term, which is why NORAD issues updates to orbital elements of every tracked object every week or two. If the satellites could just manifest their own location, that wouldn’t be an issue, but jamming will cause degradation of orbital element knowledge within a few weeks.
In other words, it’s a bit of a clean-room proof-of-concept, but probably not a solution for any party without independent information on GPS satellite orbital elements.
(FWIW, I used to be on the Science Team of a low-budget high-energy astrophysics mission in low-Earth orbit, and we had to worry about this shit lest we lose track of the satellite. Admittedly, jamming was not an issue for us).
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Jay: Then, (1) jam Kaliningrad with a signal that they can’t cease, just to make things harder for them, and (2) arrange discrete smoking accident. Putin constantly playing these games without pushback is hugely tiresome but doesn’t need to be enervating.
Carlo Graziani
@Jay: Apparently, the Ukrainians are jamming GLONASS too. Part of the problem appears to be that it is a shitty, unreliable, imprecise system, which is of marginal benefit to the Russians, and this might explain why they have no problem with promiscuously jamming GPS signals: so far as they are concerned, it levels the playing field.
Jay
@Wombat Probability Cloud:
The Tobol 14ts227 signal goes up, off an aimed parabolic dish, so it can’t be jammed. NATO jamming Kalinigrad to create the same issues as the ruZZian’s are creating for everybody else, for the ruZZian’s, (flights, marine navigation) just creates the same issues for everybody else.
Strong warnings followed by a “smoking accident” or two, is the best solution.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Jay: OK, thanks. I wasn’t suggesting jamming the Tobol, rather adding a layer of misery (for the Russians) on top of it. Jamming Kaliningrad (vs. the Baltics) appears not to be an option, but there must be some creative, technical way to retaliate.
Carlo Graziani
A very thought-provoking article at War On The Rocks on the example set by Prussia during the Seven-Year War for a manpower-conserving strategic defensive exhibiting patience with respect to political developments that enable victory.
Jay
@Carlo Graziani:
thank you.
Gin & Tonic
Apparently Tucker Carlson, still furiously searching for relevance, has now interviewed Alexander Dugin.
I think I’ll skip this episode of “Fascists Talking to Fascists.”
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
bjacques
Boops and belly and ear skritches to Rosie!
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: Thanks for the link! Interesting historical parallel.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
for those who don’t know,….
https://vatniksoup.com/en/soups/30/
and of course, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darya_Dugina#:~:text=Darya%20Dugina%20was%20born%20on,specializing%20in%20Ancient%20Greek%20philosophy.
Debbie(Aussie)
Oh Adam! That video of Mariinka is devastating. My heart breaks.
Thank you for your amazing stamina and your honesty.
NotoriousJRT
Hoping that Rosie’s condition continues in a positive direction.
YY_Sima Qian
A good overview of Russia economic prospects & its ability to finance the “SMO” going forward, from the Carnegie Endowment.