Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

… among the most cringeworthy communications in the history of the alphabet!

Is it irresponsible to speculate? It is irresponsible not to.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Let me eat cake. The rest of you could stand to lose some weight, frankly.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Cole is on a roll !

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

Consistently wrong since 2002

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

No one could have predicted…

Let there be snark.

Republicans in disarray!

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 528: Russia Unloads On Kupyansk

War for Ukraine Day 528: Russia Unloads On Kupyansk

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Another night another war crime and crime against humanity.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

International rules-based order violated by Russian aggression must be restored – address of President of Ukraine

5 August 2023 – 20:58

Dear Ukrainians, I wish you good health!

Today is another active day for our international efforts. Our team is working in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, at the meeting of advisors to the leaders of the states on the Peace Formula.

In total, 42 countries are represented there. Different continents, different political approaches to global affairs, but everyone is united by the priority of international law. And it is for this that Ukraine proposed the Peace Formula because the international rules-based order, violated by Russian aggression, must be restored. It is very important that there, on the sidelines of the meeting in Jeddah, bilateral negotiations with partners take place. Thankful to our delegation for this work: consolidation of the world is one of the most essential tasks. The greater the consolidation of the world for the sake of restoring a just peace is the sooner an end will be put to the bombs and missiles with which Moscow wants to replace the norms of international law.

Another Russian missile attack against our country was today. Kinzhal, Kalibr missiles. Their target was Motor Sich and our Khmelnytsky region. Some of the missiles were shot down, thankful to our air defense warriors for this.

But no matter how many such Russian attacks occur, they will still not give the enemy anything. Anyway, we will protect freedom for Ukraine, for all our people. And Russia won’t be able to replace international law with terror, or crises, or any intimidation. Literally every week, the world really adds strength to protect normal life.

This week I thank Germany and Lithuania for new defense and security packages for us, for our soldiers. We expect new solutions next week – new packages.

We also work for even more achievements and opportunities in our defense industry. The results are there, everyone can see them, and they are fair results, correct. Which show the aggressor state what its aggression means. Show not on TV, but precisely in the place, from which this war came to Ukraine, to the region, to the world. He, who brings problems to others, must feel what problems are.

And I thank the Security Service of Ukraine, our Navy and every warrior who restores justice and teaches Russia to losses.

Ukraine will win this war. The world will win this war. Truth will win this war. The main thing is that all of us in Ukraine and everyone in the world, who value a normal life, work at one hundred percent without any stop for the sake of victory. Our unity, our ability to build strength, and our ability to bring war back to where it came from. It is the most tangible for Russia.

And one more.

Next week our work on cleaning public institutions from those who tried to drag from the past all those old habits, old schemes that weakened Ukraine for a very long time, for decades, will continue. There will be no more old formats in our country – those formats when some defended the state and people, and others tried to put both the state and people at the service of their own benefit. No matter, who this person is – whether he is a “military commissar,” whether he is a deputy, or whether he is an official – everyone must work only for the sake of the state. So be it.

I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine! In all areas: Kupiansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Mariinka, Shakhtar, Zaporizhzhia.

I thank everyone who moves forward, who leads forward and only forward!

Glory to Ukraine!

Since 1991, russia has systematically used the territorial waters of Ukraine to organize armed aggressions: against the Georgian people and against the people of Syria. Today, they terrorize peaceful Ukrainian cities and destroy grain condemning hundreds of millions to starvation. It’s time to say to the russian killers, “It’s enough.” There are no more safe waters or peaceful harbors for you in the Black and Azov Seas.

Here’s Illia Ponomarenko’s, the former defense correspondent at The Kyiv Independent, take:

Speaking of Twitter Puritans that express their righteous anger over Ukraine “parroting” the Russian maritime blockade and continuously attacking Russian targets in the sea.

There’s just one thing that gives a complete description of what Ukraine can and cannot do as part of its war effort: it’s called international humanitarian law.

And according to the law, oil tankers, let alone military vessels, are valid military targets as they are vital for the adversary’s own war effort.

Irrelevant moralizing and double standards (“yeah, Russia does this and that, but Ukraine should be better than that”) do not help.

We’re fed up with this weird trend of Ukraine being supposed to win the war by throwing flowers at Russian tanks, kissing Russian soldiers in the cheek, and radiating love, joy, and unicorns on a daily basis.

Moreover, the same Twitter moralizers then end up throwing hands into the sky over Ukraine’s offensive progress being “frustrating”, “way too slow”, and “not meeting expectations.”

There are just two things in this case: military necessity and international law.

We don’t have another Ukraine we can move to.

Some media and social media analysis of the naval drone strike on the Russian landing ship:

After the recent successful attack on “Olenegorsky Gornyak” in Novorossiysk and the abundance of supporting evidence, including video, photos, and satellite imagery, my curiosity led me to check the coverage of this event by russia’s largest internet media outlets. As expected, they did not disappoint in their predictability – there was no mention of it, with only a brief note on lenta about a failed attempt.

Kyiv:

Here’s more on the Ukrainian naval drone strike near the Kerch Straits bridge:

Here’s the full text of the first tweet:

Footage of the moment of the hit on Russian tanker Sig this night near Kerch Strait. Russian sources claimed that there is now 2×1 meter hole in the tanker hull. P.S: Sig is under US sanctions since 2019 for delivering jet fuel to Syria. Which still did not prevent it from regularly making routes to deliver fuel to Syria. +Plus a detailed thread about Sig tanker and it’s routes is attached.

And the thread she’s quote tweeting. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

In 2019, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned the Sig, along with several other vessels and individuals for “participating in a sanctions evasion scheme to facilitate the delivery of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria”Image
“Sovfracht is behind a sanctions evasion conspiracy, orchestrated by the three individuals designated today, to make payments and facilitate the transfer of supplies of jet fuel to Russian forces operating in Syria in support of the Assad government.”

home.treasury.gov/news/press-rel…

I dug up Sig’s AIS records from the past year, and it tells a very clear story of near-monthly fuel deliveries.

Sig would sail AIS on until it hit the eastern Mediterranian, go dark for roughly a week, and then pop back up heading towards Russia.

But where was it going?Image

Thankfully, OFAC gave us a pretty good idea of where “These transactions facilitated the sale and delivery of jet fuel in 2016 and 2017 to Banias, Syria, which was used by Russian military aircraft.”Image
From the AIS records, I could identify 9 trips in the last 12 monthsImage
Pulling Sentinel-2 imagery, I was able to ID the Sig sitting off the coast of Baniyas on 3 of those trips:

(clockwise from left) 2023-1-10, 2023-2-19, 2023-5-15.

Image
Image
Image

Yörük has been absolutely on top of Sig and its sister ship Yaz since 2020.

On 2023-2-19 you can actually see both Sig and Yaz sitting off the coast of Baniyas. This was a major ID confirmation for the low res Sentinel data.

Yörük was able to confirm the pair’s outbound trip together on the 15th.

https://t.co/6DvhYbi4NE

Image

Here’s the tweet with the embedded video from the thread in the thread reader app that didn’t quite make it:

Some analysis on the military aid by Ukrainian Army officer Tatarigami:

After watching the cartoon, I initially hesitated to promote it, but now that it has gained traction, I’d like to add a few points:

It’s essential to clarify that it wasn’t America that announced and directed the counter-offensive over half a year ago.

I have consistently emphasized the need for more help and warned about the challenges we might face, as evident in my previous threads.

However, there should be a clear distinction between asking for more help while expressing concerns about slow and insufficient deliveries versus placing blame on those providing significant military and financial assistance that exceeds our own budget.

While frustration with deliveries is understandable, adopting a counter-productive attitude could lead to adverse consequences. We are fortunate to have support from many countries. The challenges we face are complex and not solely due to slow and insufficient deliveries, which are just one aspect of the overall situation. However, it’s crucial to be cautious about shifting blame onto those providing support, as it may lead to surprising and unpleasant responses. A constructive approach is needed here, because only russians win from this.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets, but there is a tweet about Illia Ponomarenko’s new puppy.

There is a new slide show at Patron’s official TikTok. These don’t embed, so click through to see it.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

49Comments

  1. 1.

    Ksmiami

    Tell me again why we shouldn’t demolish Russia? They aren’t going to stop w Ukraine and will end up endangering us through their activities in the Middle East and Africa

  3. 3.

    Chetan Murthy

    Last night I was pretty depressed, thinking about the simple and hard facts of this war.  Ukraine has probably had a million of its citizens kidnapped by Russia (Jay quotes a figure of 700k children, from Russian sources, so this seems plausible).  Ukraine will probably need a trillion dollars of reparations to reconstruct their country.  When and if Russia sues for peace, EVEN IF they vacate all Ukrainian land, they’re not going to cough up reparations, and they can and will use those kidnapped Ukrainian adults and children as hostages.  And Ukraine will be forced to accept that bargain.

    There is only one future in which Ukraine gets both its people back *and* the reparations they need to rebuild: The Russian Federation needs to fall apart.  Period.  And yet, our government seems to be pursuing a strategy to preserve RF as a going concern.  Ugh.

  4. 4.

    Chetan Murthy

    I read an interesting article about UA diplomats not returning to Ukraine after their tours of duty abroad: https://zn.ua/POLITICS/zelenskij-khochet-vseho-i-srazu-chto-tak-i-ne-tak-v-eho-otnoshenijakh-s-ukrainskimi-diplomatami.html

    [via Google Translate]

    For example, last year twenty people were supposed to return from the USA, but only one arrived. There are embassies from which not a single diplomat has returned.

    I’ve read several accounts of how Ukrainian officials are concerned that their refugees will not return, if Ukraine is a poor, broken-down country with no ability to rebuild and offer a decent life for its people.

  6. 6.

    Jay

    Kateryna Yushchenko 🌻 🇺🇦
    @KatyaYushchenko
    7h
    “..They do not know what it is to welcome back exchanged prisoners of war who have been castrated. Or to mourn old men and women murdered, or younger men and women tortured and raped. Or to worry frantically about thousands of children kidnapped.”

    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/08/ukraine-western-diplomacy/674920/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

    Western Diplomats Need to Stop Whining About Ukraine
    Allies can be exasperating. But try being invaded by your neighbor and lectured by everyone else.

    By Eliot A. Cohen

  7. 7.

    trollhattan

    @Jay: I learned from UK’s Defence Minister that Ukraine needs to be generous with their Amazon 5-star ratings for weapons donors–product, vendor, shopping and shipping experiences alike.

  10. 10.

    MomSense

    Thunderstorms again last night so my counter protest at the anti NATO protest was delayed again.
    I follow an account on Instagram and he posted photos of kids playing in playgrounds surrounded by devastation. I don’t know how Ukrainians are enduring this war.  I was trying to put myself in the shoes of those parents as they try to make life as happy and normal as possible for their children.  I can’t imagine what they are all going through.

  11. 11.

    japa21

    @Ksmiami: Just kind of curious.  Once this is accomplished what do you expect to replace it that wouldn’t be as much, if not more of a threat to the world.

  12. 12.

    Alison Rose

    @Ksmiami: Don’t be cute here. We all know, and you do too, there is no answer anyone could give you that would satisfy you. Maybe one day you’ll grow up and stop this hawkish edgelord bullshit, but apparently today is not that day.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @Chetan Murthy:

    Slava was a 90’s economic “refugee” from Ukraine.

    He built a menial life here, with his wife, had kids, but when Ukraine was attacked in 2022, he went back to fight. The community here, helped his wife and family in his absence for a while, until the UNC gave her a great job, (no longer a house cleaner) in Winterpeg.

    He’s bought the shell of a house in Odesa, something he could never afford to do here, and after clearing debris and salvage on his leaves, he planted a garden.

    We text all the time on rebuilding the house. New roof trusses are in, next leave, roof sheathing and Ice and Water shield, so the structure will be dry over the winter.

    Then, windows and doors.

    We also text on what he can do after the war in Odesa.

    Slava will be staying in Ukraine and bringing his family home.

  16. 16.

    Alison Rose

    Bombing a blood transfusion center, how super cool and totally normal and not heinous at all!!!! I’d love to hear the tankies’ explanation as to why this is part of poor lil’ russia trying to defend itself against big mean scary Ukraine. (I would not actually want to hear it.)

    We’re fed up with this weird trend of Ukraine being supposed to win the war by throwing flowers at Russian tanks, kissing Russian soldiers in the cheek, and radiating love, joy, and unicorns on a daily basis.

    Yeah, I mean…I don’t think “when they go low, we go high” is meant to apply to warfare.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  18. 18.

    Grumpy Old Railroader

    @Chetan Murthy: I’ve read several accounts of how Ukrainian officials are concerned that their refugees will not return, if Ukraine is a poor, broken-down country with no ability to rebuild and offer a decent life for its people.

    When the war is over, there are a lot of refugees from other countries that would be more than happy to immigrate and help Ukraine rebuild. If I was a half century younger, I would consider getting a small band of refugees together in Ukraine and open a food court that serves international cuisine. I cannot imagine anyone not enjoying, say, Latin American food

  22. 22.

    Bill Arnold

    @trollhattan:
    Sample 5 star review:
    Tuscan Dairy Whole Vitamin D Milk, Gallon, 128 oz

    ***** 5.0 out of 5 stars More than just Milk; Tuscan Whole Milk, 1 Gallon, 128 fl oz!
    Reviewed in the United States on May 28, 2014
    Ever since I was just a boy, I have been a huge fan of the milky-white delight that is Tuscan Whole Milk, 1 Gallon, 64 fl oz. My first experience with the original product came around when I was sill using a sippy-cup. The sheer joy that Tuscan Whole Milk, 1 Gallon, 64 fl oz brings to my soul had to be enjoyed once more, but with it’s new release; Tuscan Whole Milk, 1 Gallon, 128 fl oz. When I heard that they were doubling the quantity, I figured that I just had to buy the product and hope I would not be let down. I ordered the savoury liquid-dessert, and this what I got upon its arrival.
    …

  23. 23.

    West of the Rockies

    Galling how Putin squeals in rage when a drone blows up a window in a Moscow business office and expects sympathy.

  25. 25.

    Another Scott

    This week’s This American Life is quite good. Eight Fights:

    Nadia’s family is split between Russia and Ukraine, which is pretty common. And when Russia invaded Ukraine, it didn’t just start fighting on the battlefield. It sparked family conflict, too. An intimate story of the war from writer Masha Gessen.

    Episode available Sunday 7 p.m. CT

    Don’t get between the pugs!! ;-)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  27. 27.

    Ksmiami

    @Alison Rose: hmm. I see no future scenario in which the world is safer or better off with Russia as it is now. The sooner everyone grasps that and comes up with a plan to neuter that country, the better off for everyone.

  28. 28.

    Alison Rose

    @Ksmiami: G&T just reminded me how pointless this is, but fine, I’ll take your bait…

    You go first. What is your plan? And it cannot just be “destroy the whole country” because somewhere in your addled little mind, you know that can’t and won’t happen. You also know it’s not like putin is the only bad guy there. So what would your plan be to do this?

  30. 30.

    Lyrebird

    @Ksmiami: I truly believe you’re expressing your views, not a plant trying to make BJ look bad or to see if you can push others over the edge into extremism.  Since there are bad actors out there doing all those things on social media, though, htat’s  another reason not to dial up the blood thirst on comments here.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Twitter thread from Maxim Tucker, associate editor of the times, on the current state of Ukrainian AD:

    I spoke to a Lt. Colonel in Ukraine’s air defence command, who revealed several new facts. First, Kyiv was on the brink of evacuation in Dec due to the intensity of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure. Patriot missiles helped save the city, but are now running out.

    “You can’t plan a war with annual production of 160 Patriot missiles. We fired those in a month,” he said. “If we wait until autumn [to increase supply] they will hit energy infrastructure again. This is a certainty. This winter will be even more difficult than the previous one.”

    Second, the UK has supplied Ukraine with a new air defence system: Supacat trucks rigged by British engineers to fire cheaper ASRAAM missiles. Effective against Shahed drones, but also Russian attack helicopters near the front line. Kyiv loves them, and needs more.

    …

    The recurring theme is that  Western MIC cannot yet sustain production to supply a regional high intensity conflict, stocks were never large enough for such scenarios, but Ukraine is reliant upon Western supply of higher end systems.

    ASRAAMs on Supercats are exactly what the Ukrainian Army needs to threaten the Russian attack helicopters that have been sniping at advancing Ukrainian columns from kms behind the line of contact.

  32. 32.

    Lyrebird

    @Jay: I make no claims about the effectiveness of this, but I will keep praying for your friend Slava and all of G&T’s family, may they all build their houses and gardens in free Ukraine!

  33. 33.

    Nukular Biskits

    Adam, once (if?) hostilities have ceased, what is your opinion about how the international community should pursue war crimes prosecutions against Russians and/or Russia itself?

    And are there any credible claims that Russia might could make against Ukrainians?

  34. 34.

    wombat probability cloud

    @Jay: Just passing by, because the day and evening have been away too busy, but is there a way to directly support Slava with funds?

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Meanwhile in Jeddah, according to an EU source to Finbarr Bermingham:

    EU source says of Jeddah talks: parties including China agreed that “respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine needs to be at the heart of any peace settlement”

    Parties including China gave “broad general agreement” to est working groups based on key themes of Zelenskyy’s ten point peace plan These include global food security, nuclear safety, environmental security, humanitarian aid release of POWs and kidnapped children

    “China participated actively and was positive about idea of a third meeting at this level,” EU source says. “Timing of a head of state meeting: still a bit up in the air, but before end of year considered plausible.”

    Bermingham is the EU reporter for the South China Morning Post out of Hong Kong. He hasn’t pulled punches in criticism of the Chinese government in his reporting or his Tweets, & has  gotten good scoops before.

    Not sure anything meaningful will come out of the Jeddah talks that does not include either Ukraine or Russia, & certainly nothing will move Putin, but it could be a barometer of Global South and/or “Straddler” sentiments. Putin exiting the Black Sea Grains Deal could be an important development in hindsight.

  36. 36.

    Jay

    @wombat probability cloud:

    Nope. Slava doesn’t need money. His BTG doesn’t need gear.

    Anything you can donate via Balloon Juice, United 24, Saint Javelin or the many other fundraisers through NAFO, Dyrga’s Paw, World Central Kitchen, etc helps.

    Anything you can do regarding your Reps and Congressmen to get more aid to Ukraine, helps.

  37. 37.

    Ksmiami

    @Lyrebird: the only thing that will fix Russia is us producing and giving everything Ukraine needs to absolutely demolish Russia’s army. And then offer the country a choice-with incentives; to be prosperous and a bit less authoritarian or impoverished and alone.

  38. 38.

    Ksmiami

    @Lyrebird: ps the Russians took my spouse’s family homes so… yes, I hate them. And the country has pretty much been terrible for most of its Hobbesian past. No I don’t have much compassion for the servile pathetic citizens there.

  40. 40.

    Inventor

    Some talking head was teasing the local news with “Why is Ukraine attacking Russian shipping?”.

    I thought: “The war. It’s obviously because of the war”.

  41. 41.

    Lyrebird

    @Ksmiami: us producing and giving everything Ukraine needs

    Hear, hear!  For them and for our own democracy, which we have not yet freed from Putler’s invluence.

    I won’t pretend to fully understand how you and your family must feel, or G&T, or people in Ukraine right now. Or people around the world who struggle to afford enough to eat.  RF claiming moral high ground, and not just boobytrapping kids’ toys, but actively trying to take away the “daily bread” of millions.  I don’t understand, and I will keep reminding my congressperson that we should back Ukraine 200%!

  42. 42.

    Hangö Kex

    NIAMEY, Niger (AP) — Niger’s new military junta has asked for help from the Russian mercenary group Wagner as the deadline nears for it to release the country’s ousted president or face possible military intervention by the West African regional bloc, according to an analyst.
    …
    And much more is at stake in Niger, where the U.S. and other partners have poured hundreds of millions of dollars of military assistance to combat the region’s growing jihadi threat. France has 1,500 soldiers in Niger, though coup leaders say they have severed security agreements with Paris. The U.S. has 1,100 military personnel in the country.
    …

    https://apnews.com/article/wagner-russia-coup-niger-military-force-e0e1108b58a9e955af465a3efe6605c0

  43. 43.

    Carlo Graziani

    The drone attacks on the SIG and the Olenegorsky Gornyak are starting to make more sense in light of their Notice to Mariners of a “military threat in the vicinity of the internal and external roadsteads at the ports of Taman, Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, and Sochi, until further notice”, beginning August 23.

    The attacks need not be against targets of any strategic relevance to the conflict. They merely need to establish the credibility of the threat.

    The 2-week deadline is also interesting, as it suggests a preparatory phase in progress. If I had to guess, the Ukrainians are setting up belts of naval mines around those ports.

  44. 44.

    weasel

    Sorry to drive through comment in a thread I don’t remember ever engaging with, although I’ve read every single one. Thank you Prof. Silverman for your dedication and the enlightenment you have provided :)
    Delurked to share what I thought was an especially good post on attritional warfare by a person at dKos, ROC37, that I have found interesting and educational…
    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/5/2184924/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-s-war-of-attrition-can-break-Russia-and-it-won-t-take-years
    Just wanted to share what I thought was a good read and to see if any others were reading this guy’s stuff and had any thoughts. (He got semioffical recognition as a front pager while Kos was on vacation :)

  45. 45.

    Freemark

    @weasel: Read his stuff, Kos’ stuff, and Sumner’s stuff on a daily basis. Throw in The Drive’s ‘Warzone’ and Adam’s posts and I get more excellent information in a week than the MSM has given since the start of the conflict.

  47. 47.

    dr. luba

    @Ksmiami: “I don’t have much compassion for the servile pathetic citizens there.”

    Agreed.  My family has suffered much over the years from them.

  48. 48.

    weasel

    @Freemark: Those are my favorite three over at dKos as well. Enjoy the Warzone but often forget to check it. Thanks for the reminder!

Comments are closed.