Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Prediction: the GOP will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

It’s time for the GOP to dust off that post-2012 autopsy, completely ignore it, and light the party on fire again.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.

Come on, man.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

If you are still in the GOP, you are an extremist.

Battle won, war still ongoing.

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

In after Baud. Damn.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

We still have time to mess this up!

Bad news for Ron DeSantis is great news for America.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 570: Kharkiv in the Crosshairs

War for Ukraine Day 570: Kharkiv in the Crosshairs

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(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Overnight Russia opened up on Kharkiv:

I haven’t seen anything with a battle damage report so have no idea what was struck in Kharkiv or how many were wounded or killed.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Our task is to provide Ukraine with all the opportunities to produce weapons and ammunition to have reliable protection against aggression – address of the President

16 September 2023 – 18:50

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainian men and women!

Today is a meaningful day – we are preparing for a strong second half of September. Strong in terms of our international work with partners and the decisions we are implementing here in Ukraine.

Dozens of negotiations have already been planned, and there is a clear schedule of meetings.

There will also be clear and specific results.

Another important point to mention.

We are continuing to prepare for the Defense Industries Forum, the first event of its kind to take place in Ukraine. It will happen this autumn.

Interest in the Forum is very high. This fully reflects Ukraine’s strength and potential – our ability to defend ourselves and help other countries preserve freedom and international order… Already, 86 leading defense companies from around the world – representing 21 countries – have confirmed their participation in the Forum.

Our task is absolutely clear – to provide Ukraine with all the opportunities to produce weapons and ammunition, to provide modern technology to have reliable protection against any form of aggression. Moreover, of course, to share our defense experience among allies and partners. The world must be stronger than any threat to life from aggressors or terrorists.

This week, we have made significant progress in implementing existing defense agreements and other support packages.

Denmark – thank you for the new defense package, which is already the 12th package. Equipment, ammunition, and missiles for our air defense. Germany – thank you for the new batch of military aid. Belgium – your participation in our pilot training is approved. Thank you! Norway – your decision to provide additional funding for Ukraine’s recovery. It’s crucial. Thank you! South Korea – thank you for the new financial support agreement! The United States – the new sanctions decision to limit Russia’s ability to engage in terror. Thank you!

And, of course, our warriors. All brigades and units currently in combat.

Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions. And those who have already achieved important results for Ukraine this week, and those who, I am confident, are preparing to contribute to Ukraine’s success.

Thank you! We are all proud of our warriors and are committed to strengthening our defense and security forces!

Glory to Ukraine!

Andriivka:

Svitlodarsk:

Russian occupied Sevastopol:

 

For you logistics and acquisitions fans:

The drawdown authorization that the Biden administration has been using is only authorized for FY2023. It expires in two weeks. As of now the Biden administration has not asked for either a renewal or a new authorization for FY2024. This is going to be a major problem. And it rolls into something I did a thread on at Bluesky today.

This past week Putin promoted Andrei Mordvichev to colonel-general. Mordvichev is the commander of the Central Military District and Russian Central Grouping of Forces in Ukraine. In a July interview he had this to say:

Here’s the quote from The Daily Beast:

When asked about the length of the war in Ukraine, Mordvichev responded that he has an understanding that Russia has to attack Eastern Europe. “If we’re talking about Eastern Europe, which we’ll have to attack, it will be longer and longer,” Mordvichev said. When asked if Ukraine is “only an intermediate stage,” Mordvichev replied that Ukraine is just a stepping stone to other attacks.

Mordvichev isn’t freelancing here. He’s communicating the actual policy position of Putin and Russia for both the genocidal war against Ukraine and the intentions for eastern Europe. While the Ukrainians resolve has demonstrated that Russia does not have the capability, the ways and means, to achieve these ends at this time, one of the ways in Russia’s strategy is to play for time. Putin is counting on changes via elections in the US over the next year. He is counting on a new refugee crisis created by the food scarcity crisis he is creating with his embargo of Ukrainian grain and other foodstuffs and attacks on Ukraine’s granaries and food production & storage facilities. He is counting on those refugees showing up in Europe during the winter and that it will be a cold winter this year, not like the past one. As such he’s playing for time for the crises he’s creating to set the conditions for his proxies in various EU states to take political advantage. He’s also counting on the food crisis he’s creating to drive global food prices back up, reigniting inflation in the US, which is currently on the way back down, to further increase the chances that the GOP will win the presidency and retain at least one chamber of Congress in 2024.

Whether this actually works, whether he can create enough food scarcity in the global south to recreate the refugee crisis his strategy facilitated as part of Russia’s theater strategy in the Syrian Civil War remains to be seen. But the play for time portion of his Ukraine theater strategy is a key component of it. If Russia’s forces can hold on to enough of the Ukrainian territory they are occupying, to make the conflict seem frozen, that creates the strategic space for the other lines of effort to play out. Putin is counting on the US and the EU states eventually having political turnover as a result of fatigue from their support for Ukraine. Political turnover that will either greatly reduce or end that support. This would then create even further strategic space for Russia to extend their control over the portions of Ukraine under occupation, while rebuilding its military capability for a third attempt to take Ukraine. This would then be used for eventual future operations to reclaim what Putin perceives as the other wayward states in Europe that are supposed to be in Russia’s sphere of influence, near abroad, and the Russian world.

Putin’s strategy ties into the expiring drawdown authority because 1) the Biden administration hasn’t asked for an extension, 2) most likely because they know they can’t get it through the GOP controlled House, and 3) even if they could it might now survive a GOP filibuster in the Senate. Several of you sent me Senator Cotton’s letter to President Biden asking him to speed up and increase the amount of munitions we’re sending to Ukraine.

That’s not enough Republican senator co-signers to break a filibuster. And while there are more GOP senators that support Ukraine, if the Biden administration doesn’t ask for a renewal of the drawdown authorization we will never know how they may or may not vote.

Here’s some Ukrainian acquisitions news for you all:

KYIV, Sept 16 (Reuters) – Ukraine will be able to conduct more drone attacks on Russian warships, a Ukrainian minister who has played a key role in building the country’s drone industry told Reuters after a recent series of sea raids.

“There will be more drones, more attacks, and fewer Russian ships. That’s for sure,” Digital Transformation minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in an interview on Friday, answering a question about recent attacks near Crimea.

This week, Ukraine has made several attacks using sea drones and missiles on Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet in and around the Crimean peninsula, which was annexed from Ukraine by Russia in 2014.

In a sign of growing confidence, Ukraine has recently claimed responsibility for attacks on Crimea, having previously not directly confirmed involvement in blasts at military targets there.

Russia has acknowledged a Ukrainian missile attack that damaged a warship and a submarine this week, but says it has repelled all sea drone attacks.

On Thursday, Fedorov posted a grainy video on social media that appeared to be filmed from a vessel heading towards a much larger warship, followed by an explosion.

He said at the time that attack was the work of Ukrainian systems paid for by funds from a government-run crowdfunding platform that raises money for equipment including drones.

Fedorov also said Ukraine’s aerial drone production had increased by over 100 times in 2023 from last year.

“I think it’ll be an increase of around 120 to 140 times by the end of this year, if you compare it to the previous one.”

According to the minister, Ukraine is testing AI systems that can locate targets several kilometres away and guide drones to them even if external communications are disrupted by electronic warfare measures.

“We need AI, for instance the technology for finding targets, just like how the Lancet (a Russian drone) operates, so that a target can be located under electronic warfare and destroyed.”

“At the moment it’s all at the testing stage, but some drones we are buying use AI to recognise targets. In a forest, it can detect a target and recognise whether it’s a person, tank, or a certain vehicle. These technologies are being used actively.”

The London Ukraine Review has published an excerpt from Victoria Amelina’s unfinished final book.

This is a previously unpublished excerpt from the book Looking At Women Looking At War: A War & Justice Diary which Victoria Amelina was working on when a Russian missile took her life. This entry reminds us of the days just before the full-scale invasion when Russia had already escalated attacks on the eastern regions of Ukraine.

I just bought my first gun in downtown Lviv. I’ve heard that everyone is capable of killing, and those who say they aren’t just haven’t met the right person yet. An armed stranger entering my country might be just the ‘right person’.

My new gun lies black and hazardous, on the bed, among all my swimming suits and bright summer dresses. I might need it later when I come back. But not yet. Now we are going on vacation to Egypt.

‘We’ll come back to Ukraine on 24 February, and I’ll start going to shooting practice’, I explain to my son, who has been watching too much news for his age in the past few months but isn’t afraid of the invasion at all.

I put the gun into a safe and our swimming suits into a suitcase.

The invasion didn’t happen yesterday, on 16 February 2022. So I head out the door, full of hope that it will not happen at all. After all, the full-scale Russian invasions have been rescheduled for the past eight years since 2014.

‘Mom, when’s the next time we get invaded?’ my ten-year-old jokes, like many adults in Ukraine.

At the last moment, I turn around and run to the bedroom. I use a chair to reach the jewellery box on the higher shelf. What if Kharkiv, Kyiv, and even Lviv will soon look like ruined Aleppo or Grozny? What do I take now if I am not coming home? Ever.

‘Mom, we’re going to miss the flight!’

I take one pendant, gold-plated silver with little rubies. I have it from my grandma, the only jewellery her mother had left her, and thus the oldest family relic I have. The great-grandmother who left it to us was born in Russia, somewhere on the Volga river. My Ukrainian grandmother and two Ukrainian grandfathers didn’t have such old things; for them, everything was gone with the wind in the turmoil of the last century in Ukraine, the heart of the bloodlands.

I put the pendant with rubies on as if it were my soldier’s badge.

In line for a security check at the airport, I cannot stop staring at the news on my smartphone. Around 9 am, an artillery shell hit the ‘Fairy Tale’ kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska, making a hole in the wall of the children’s gym. The photo of the kindergarten is difficult to comprehend: a shell hole in one of the walls, a painted magical island with palm trees and animals on another, yellow ornamented wallpaper, which still makes the kindergarten room look cosy, and numerous footballs in the pile of broken bricks.

I visited Stanytsia Luhanska near the contact line a couple of years ago to meet with the community in the local history museum. I was met by its kind deputy director and its bizarre exhibition: the damaged bust of Lenin hit by a Russian shell, the older shells from the Second World War, and the new ones, including those that conveniently got to the museum right through its roof. Through the small window, I looked to ‘the other side’, the territory occupied by Russia or, according to the occupiers, ‘Luhansk People’s Republic’, a place from where all the shells, except those from the Second World War, have come. Back then, the deputy director took my books to add to the museum collection, as if contemporary Ukrainian literature was a wonder under the circumstances.

Staring at the picture of the ruined kindergarten gym long enough, I realize what the magic island with palm trees represents: a scene from a Soviet cartoon. Alas, the beloved characters from my post-Soviet childhood, the elephant, the monkey, and the boa, stare from behind the palm trees at the pile of broken bricks, just like I do. This pile is between the Russified little girl I used to be and me.

‘No children were killed or injured in Stanytsia Luhanska as no one was in the gym at the time of the shelling’, I read in the news. So, we’re all lucky.

I often tell myself how lucky we all are, as if arguing with the last line of the famous Serhiy Zhadan poem, which tells the story of refugees from a city that ‘was built of stone and steel’ but doesn’t exist anymore. Serhiy wrote it in 2015 after Russia occupied the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and the Crimea peninsula. I only paid attention to the poem in 2018 when I saw it written on a wall on Peace Avenue in Mariupol.

Much, much more at the link!

One final note for tonight. I want to make it clear that I’m not disillusioned regarding doing these daily updates. Rather, as a national security professional I am not longer sure that the type of work I was doing while on the full time assignment last year or would do if I were to take another one is useful. As in I’m not sure what positive difference I’m making these days. It isn’t burn out per se. I just don’t know what, nor am I able to see what the point is anymore. As such I’m looking for opportunities that allow me to use my education, experience, and expertise to make a positive impact outside the defense enterprise. I feel like it is time for a change.

Relatedly, if I write that I’m required to do something because of the rules of my profession, you can trust me that I am honestly explaining it to you. You don’t have to ask people in comments who are not in my profession whether I’m being honest with you all. I know the rules I have to follow and I follow them because if I don’t it can cost me my career. Even if it is a career I’m no longer sure I want.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There isn’t a new Patron tweet today, but this is Patron adjacent.

And here’s a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

🤭🎹🐾

♬ original sound – Krystallloh – Krystallloh

Open thread.

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    37Comments

    1. 1.

      BR

      Thank you for your posts as always. (And disappointed to see your thread behind a login wall at BlueSky. Oh well. There’s no reason for them to login wall it, but they have.)​

      Reply
    2. 2.

      HinTN

      I’m looking for opportunities that allow me to use my education, experience, and expertise to make a positive impact outside the defense enterprise.

      Academia? Teach / mentor the next generation?

      Reply
    4. 4.

      Adam L Silverman

      @HinTN: No. I left academia for the same reasons back in 2007. Moreover, no university would hire me. Because of the work I have done for the better part of the past twenty years I have almost no publications. And no academic position would even come close to matching salary.

      Reply
    5. 5.

      japa21

      First of all, whatever your decision ends up being, even if it curtails what you are doing here, know that you will have the full support of the jackals.

      Secondly, I have noticed a change in the overall tone of Tatarigami_UA’s tweets. The author seems to be a little more upbeat and positive about the future of Ukraine’s campaign. I may be seeing something that isn’t there, but I don’t think so.

      Reply
    6. 6.

      Adam L Silverman

      @HinTN: Also, I appreciate the suggestion, but I didn’t write that section to solicit them. I wrote it because several people were concerned by my comment along these lines last night to either reply with their own comments or email me about it. So I wanted to make sure I addressed it in the post itself.

      I know what I have to do and I’m doing it. Whether it works out or not is partially out of my control. For now, though, I’m back to consulting.

      Reply
    7. 7.

      Adam L Silverman

      @japa21: It won’t. Regardless of where I wind up, part of my requirements will be permission to keep doing these updates as long as is necessary. I made that commitment and I will stick with it.

      Reply
    8. 8.

      Adam L Silverman

      I’m going to walk the dogs before the humidity cranks back up again as we get farther from sundown. Back in about 40 minutes or so.

      Reply
    9. 9.

      Carlo Graziani

      Professional satisfaction is essential, especially to  people who think for a living, as you do. I hope you find it.

      Reply
    10. 10.

      tobie

      Thanks, as always, for your posts, and I hope you find a satisfying that makes full use of your talents in one arena or another.

      It’s puzzling when someone like Tom Cotton is asking the admin to give Ukraine more assistance. I can’t imagine the admin sees any advantage in prolonging the war. A long war only serves Russian interests.

      Reply
    11. 11.

      YY_Sima Qian

      @japa21: There definitely has been a slightly more upbeat turn to Tatarigami_UA’s assessments. He maybe thinking that there is  a higher chance of a Ukrainian breakthrough than a few weeks ago, & at the very least the Russian forces are attrition badly, which the Ukrainian Army may be better positioned to exploit in winter.

      Reply
    13. 13.

      Alison Rose

      mordvichev sounds like a real great sane dude, what a peach, nice to meet him. Blech.

      I wonder why the admin hasn’t pursued the renewal yet. I don’t know anything about how these things work, but a couple of weeks seems to be cutting it rather close.

      This photo is really striking: “Oleksiy and Alina, the newlyweds, are both in their twenties. They first crossed paths as 15-year-old teenagers during tactical training.”

      Thank you as always, Adam.

      (P.S. I apologize if any of my comments seemed to be questioning your knowledge of your own situation. That certainly wasn’t my intent. It was more just surprise on my part at the strictness of the…restrictions, as it was at a level I’d not heard of before. But I didn’t mean to sound like I was doubting or challenging or anything, and I’m sorry if I did.)

      Reply
    16. 16.

      Another Scott

      Change is hard, but life is change. Best of luck with the thinking and planning.

      On the Ukraine funding for FY24, the plan seems to be to go for a supplemental. BreakingDefense.com (from March):

      While the Pentagon’s budget request does include the “small amount” of $300 million in the base budget for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, the senior defense official said other funds for the effort are not included.

      “If that is still an ongoing issue in FY24, we would expect to handle that by contingency or supplemental funding, which is the way that every emergent operation has been handled for about 50 consecutive years in this government; So, no difference here,” the senior defense official added.

      “[The war] is far too fluid for us to be putting anything now projecting into FY 24 what the situation might be,” the official said, noting that the Biden administration is committed to supporting Ukraine.

      Given the state of the House, trying to keep things simple to get some sort of CR and FY24 baseline budget passed quickly is probably prudent.

      The only FY24 Drawdown information I’ve been able to quickly find is for Taiwan (some fund going from $100M to $1100M).

      Thanks. Hang in there.

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply
    18. 18.

      Maxim

      I can’t imagine that President Biden doesn’t understand the existential threat Russia poses, especially given Mordvichev’s remarks. I assume that news is reverberating through eastern Europe as well. Biden will do whatever is in his power to support Ukraine, but I am sorry that he’s apparently still surrounded by too many military brass who are too cautious.

      Reply
    23. 23.

      Anoniminous

      Don’t remember seeing @Tendar’s post yesterday (from Nitter:)

      The events around Andriivka are even more devastating for the Russian army than anticipated.

      According to the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade the village was completely surrounded, killing command staff of Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade and trapping some parts of the brigade. During the entire battle, large portions of the army unit were destroyed or captured, effectively destroying the entire Russian 72nd Separate Motor Rifle Brigade.

      The destruction of this Russian army unit rips a hole in the Russian defenses south of Bakhmut and further complicates the situation for the Russian army which already has sent large reserves to the Zaporizhzhia Front, exposing other front lines such as this one.

      Slowly but surely the Russians are being ground down.

      Reply
    24. 24.

      frosty

      Adam, best of luck with the career change. Thinking back, I had four careers; the first was because it was the only job I could find during a recession. Come to think of it, the second was too, different recession. The last one was smooth, it was a transition from transportation to environmental planning while working for the same employer. That’s the easy way – it beats going back to school and getting another degree in a different field.​
       

      ETA after reading more, that approach probably doesn’t apply to you. Still, best wishes from me.

      Reply
    25. 25.

      Yutsano

      Whatever you decide, my friend, it is the path you were supposed to take. And us jackals will be here. Even if that means you have to temporarily leave.

      Reply
    27. 27.

      Adam L Silverman

      I’ve just put up a supplementary War for Ukraine update post. Russia’s got about a dozen TU 95 strategic bombers in the air headed towards and/or already over the Black Sea. Based on past Russian actions this may mean an aerial bombardment of Ukrainian cities is imminent.

      Reply
    31. 31.

      Lyrebird

      @Adam L Silverman:

      Am trying to puzzle out if it could’ve been what I said.  Hope not!   I generally assume that any first pager who says something about work has ssaid as much as they care to say on that already, for reasons that aren’t mine to review.

      I know there is a new thread,  but I  didn’t want to keep bringing this topic along.

      I was interested to hear about others’ experieences with limits on receiving gifts bc the ongoing corrupt behavior of Scalito and ScaThomas is horrible imnsho.  All these different civil servants, contractors, whoever, living by the rules, and those jerks living it up and trading favors.

      Best wishes to you Adam with your pursuits.

      Reply
    33. 33.

      Adam L Silverman

      @Lyrebird: All civil servants and contractors – and I’ve been both – are limited in regard to accepting gifts. Moreover, if you’ve got a clearance, then all major financial changes, monetary windfalls, etc have to be reported. For instance, when my student loans were done (thanks Biden and Harris) I had to report it to the security officer and they added the pdf of the notification to my file. It is considered a major financial change. So receiving a gift from someone I don’t know paid for by donations from a bunch of pseudonymous commenters some of whom may not be Americans was definitely going to be a no and a problem. By offering to pay for the quilt, I side stepped all of that.

      As for the Supreme Court justices; they do not have either a statutory or a self imposed set of ethical requirements they must adhere to. So they can do whatever they want. If Congress doesn’t like it, then Congress can impeach them in the House, convict them in the Senate, and remove them from office. Which isn’t going to happen. Congress could also pass a statutory code of ethics including punishments for the Supreme Court justices Which also is not going to happen.

      Reply
    35. 35.

      Traveller

      …it is not hard to be more ethical than Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

      Considering the real danger of 12 or more Russian Strategic Bombers flying South carrying God knows what payloads…this at least made me laugh. Best Wishes, Traveller

      Reply
    37. 37.

      Another Scott

      Speaking of ATACMS, I did some poking around… TheDrive.com (from December 5, 2022):

      The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, that the U.S. military has transferred to Ukraine have been modified to prevent them from firing any variant of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile, according to a new report today.

      ATACMS missiles have been high on the Ukrainian military’s wishlist for some time as they would greatly extend the range the country could hold Russian targets at risk. It can also destroy larger, more heavily fortified targets across its up to nearly 200-mile range. However, American officials have so far denied those requests for fear the missiles could be used to strike targets deeper inside Russia proper, which they worry could lead the Kremlin to seek to further escalate the situation in Ukraine or to retaliate more directly against the United States and its NATO allies.

      The Wall Street Journal first reported on the modifications made to the 6×6 wheeled HIMARS launchers that have been delivered to Ukraine. As of November 23, the U.S. military had transferred, or was planning to transfer, a total of 38 HIMARS to the Ukrainian armed forces, according to the Pentagon. So far, these launchers, which have had a major impact on the battlefield already, fire M30A1 and M31A1 227mm precision-guided rockets, which have advanced fragmentation and unity high-explosive warheads respectively. Both types have a stated maximum range of at least approximately 43.5 miles (70 kilometers).

      […]

      The full scope of the modifications made to U.S.-supplied HIMARS before their arrival in Ukraine is unclear. One possibility is that the launchers might simply have a dumbed-down version of the standard system’s software that does not have the functionality necessary to launch ATACMS. Minor physical changes could be made to prevent the missiles from working properly if loaded or prevent them from being loaded in the first place, too. However, ATACMS missiles come pre-loaded into launch canisters (often referred to as ‘pods’) that are intended to at least be dimensionally identical (and also outwardly appear the same) as those loaded with 227mm rockets, which could make physical alternations more complicated.

      […]

      It’s worth noting that the Ukrainian military has also received versions and derivatives of the U.S.-designed M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), a tracked launcher that can fire the same suite of mention as the HIMARS. However, those vehicles have all come from countries – the United Kingdom, Germany, and France – that have never operated ATACMS. So, it’s unclear if any of these launchers ever had any residual capability to fire ATACMS or have now been similarly modified to prevent them from doing so.

      […]

      True? No idea.

      Much more at the link.

      Cheers,
      Scott.

      Reply

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