The House has passed a clean continuing resolution (CR) to keep the government open for another 45 days while the House GOP caucus continues to peck each other’s livers out. There was one Democratic no vote: Congressman Mike Quigley of Illinois. Congressman Quigley voted no because the $24 billion supplemental aid package for Ukraine was pulled from the CR. Quigley’s district includes one of the largest groups of Ukrainian-Americans in any congressional district in the US. The Senate GOP caucus jammed Senator McConnell earlier today on Ukraine funding as well:
NEWS—Senate R’s overruled McConnell on CR strategy during lunch
McConnell made forceful case for Ukraine & voting to advance Senate CR
Majority of conference opposed, including Thune
McConnell then walked out & said R’s will vote no on cloture
Reporting from me & @bresreports
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) September 30, 2023
Goal here for Senate R’s is to back up House R’s and try to pass their CR before the funding deadline tonight.
— Andrew Desiderio (@AndrewDesiderio) September 30, 2023
So while it appears that the US government will remain open for at least another forty-five days, and don’t think that number was NOT picked for a reason by the House GOP caucus, further aid for Ukraine will have to be dealt with separately. The Washington Post has the Biden administration’s take:
A White House official signaled administration support for the House bill, highlighting that the legislation averts deep cuts to domestic programs and includes disaster relief. The official also said the administration expects House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to soon bring another bill to the floor to support Ukraine. The official provided the statement on the condition of anonymity to describe a position not yet made public.
I’ll reserve judgement on the administration’s expectations.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Our state can and will definitely become a donor of global security – address by the President of Ukraine
30 September 2023 – 20:53
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today we can already assess this week’s key result for our defense industry. A truly new stage of the Ukrainian defense industry’s development has begun.
The first Defense Industries Forum took place. It was extremely successful. And it testified to the global interest in the opportunity to work in Ukraine and with Ukraine in the production of weapons and everything necessary for the real defense of any free nation.
Our new format with defense companies – the Defense Industries Alliance – includes 38 member companies as of this evening. They represent 19 countries. These are the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, Bulgaria, Australia, Belgium, our Baltic friends – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as the Czech Republic, North Macedonia, Slovakia, Spain, Croatia and Finland. This is a very powerful start, and the work is ongoing. More companies will join.
In addition, our manufacturers signed 20 documents with partner companies at the Forum. Agreements and memoranda. Each such document then becomes a new production or an enhancement of existing cooperation.
These are agreements on joint production, exchange of technologies, supply of components. Propellant powder production, munitions manufacturing. This is the training of personnel for our defense industry. Separately, and very thoroughly, we are developing the Ukrainian manufacturing of drones, land and naval autonomous systems.
All in all, more than 250 companies took part in our Defense Industries Forum – and this forum is only the first one of its kind. Dozens of Ukrainian companies were among them.
We are also working to ensure that Ukraine produces the air defense systems we need – truly powerful ones.
When we eventually see and feel the maximum arms power of Ukraine in real action – of our manufacturers, our defense industry, our new cooperation with the world – we will be able to say that the foundation of this was laid right now, in the agreements like those reached at the Forum and during my visits, in particular to the United States, Sweden and other countries. All the most powerful countries are already cooperating or will cooperate with Ukraine.
Our country will become one of the world’s key producers of weapons and defense systems. And this is no longer just an ambition or a prospect, it is a potential that is already being realized. I am grateful to everyone whose work leads to such results for Ukraine!
Currently, and we have to be honest about this, Ukraine is a recipient of security assistance. But our country can and will become a donor of global security. In particular, thanks to our defense industry. Thanks to the strength, resilience, and indomitability of our people.
Tomorrow is a very important day for Ukraine, for all our people. The Day of Defenders of Ukraine. Of the millions who have not only preserved Ukraine’s decent place in human history, but also make sure that our people and our state do not lose their history, fight for their lives and freedom, and inspire the entire free world with their struggle.
Tomorrow, we will pay special tribute to all our defenders. Tomorrow we will honor the memory of those who gave their lives for Ukraine.
For the first time, this day – the Intercession of the Most Holy Theotokos – will be on October 1. And let’s establish a new tradition for this day.
October 1. 9:00 a.m. Wherever you are – on the main street of your city or just at home – stop for a minute, honor with silence the memory of our fallen defenders and think about those who are now in combat, on combat missions, at their posts. Those who save lives. Those who protect our people and state in every sense of the word.
There would be no strength and will of Ukraine if it were not for all those who stood up for Ukraine.
We are thankful. We honor. We remember. All together.
Glory to Ukraine!
President Zelenskyy also delivered a keynote at Ukraine’s inaugural International Defense Industries Forum. Video below followed by the English transcript.
We are laying the foundation for the arsenal of the free world – speech by the President of Ukraine at the First International Defense Industries Forum
30 September 2023 – 09:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
For me, it is an honor to open in Ukraine, in our capital, in free Kyiv, the First International Defense Industries Forum. Right now, over 30 countries from around the world are represented here. Europe, America, Asia, Australia. 252 defense companies that manufacture a full range of weapons and defense systems and solutions.
But most importantly, in this hall, there is confidence. Confidence of the free world. Confidence that we can protect our people, our values, and our freedom. And we will do it. For sure. Because we will build the necessary arsenal. And I am pleased to welcome all of you to the Forum. All of you who are ready to build the arsenal of the free world together with Ukraine and in Ukraine. A modern and powerful arsenal that will leave no chance for any aggressor.
This is not just about Russia’s aggression.
Yes, our primary task is to win in this war and bring back long-lasting and, most importantly, reliable peace to our people. We will accomplish this task. Thanks to our cooperation with you, with the majority of the world. Thanks to broad coalitions supporting our defense. Thanks to the production of weapons and ammunition in Ukraine. And thanks to the fact that we implement technology in Ukraine’s defense and use the most effective battle practices, real practices of pushing forward, effective practices of protecting people and infrastructure from Russian terror. But everything we have learned ourselves, we are ready to teach and share practices with our partners. Everything that serves our defense can serve – and very successfully – the defense of our partners. This is how we are laying the foundation for the arsenal of the free world.
With its criminal and unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, Russia has shown every nation that it can threaten the sovereignty and normal life of any people on the planet.
And looking at our defense in this war, at our movement towards liberating our own territory, every state understands what it needs for its own defense. What kind of weapons, what industries, what modern technologies, what alliances.
By how we have endured in the war and by how Ukraine will prevail, we provide a successful strategy for national and collective defense to all others in the world who value peace. A long-term strategy. Right now, for the next decades, the most powerful defense-industrial complexes are being determined, what their priorities will be, and what the standard of defense in the world will be. It is being determined precisely in Ukraine.
Ladies and gentlemen!
Ukraine is at a point in the defense marathon where it is absolutely essential to move forward without any retreat. A frontline result is needed every day.
I am grateful to everyone around the world who helps us achieve such results. But it’s evident that without our own production of weapons and ammunition, without our own defense technologies, this would simply be impossible. I take pride in the fact that at this Forum today, we have not only representatives of cutting-edge foreign companies but also representatives of our domestic Ukrainian enterprises. Enterprises that are growing stronger during this time of war. State-owned and private enterprises. Established defense companies with a long history and entirely new defense companies, defense startups that have just begun but are already making a name for themselves.
The world sees what Ukrainian missiles, technologies, and drones are capable of. We are creating the world’s first fleet of naval drones that render Russian military ships ineffective and force them into hiding. We have initiated the production of cannons and “NATO caliber” ammunition that are needed on the battlefield. You know this – 155 mm. Our anti-tank guided missile systems have a longer range and are safer to operate than a whole range of other analogs. We offer our software solutions for defense, from management to cybersecurity. We are interested in localizing the production of equipment – so necessary for our defense – and each of those cutting-edge defense systems used by our warriors, which are delivering the best results for Ukraine on the frontline today.
This kind of collaboration – in the production of weapons, equipment, and ammunition – is already being negotiated with our partners. Regarding what can and should be publicly disclosed today, I’d like to highlight recent agreements with the United States of America. We have reached agreements on joint production – essentially the establishment of a new industrial ecosystem that will strengthen both Ukraine and the United States, and all our partners. This is one of the key outcomes of my negotiations with President Biden in Washington, and a clear signal to the world that Ukrainian strength is not just worthy of trust but that the world’s strongest are ready to combine their potential with our strength – the strength of our state.
Today, at this forum, we are announcing the creation of the Defense Industries Alliance. An alliance that values international law and is capable of working for the real protection of international law. Protection of security – I’m talking not only about Ukraine, but also about the security of any nation in the world from aggression.
We have drawn up a corresponding basic declaration as the foundation of this alliance, and manufacturers of weapons and military equipment from all over the world who share our intention to provide real protection from aggression in this high-risk environment of our time can join it. Today, at its inception, 13 prominent companies have already signed this declaration, showing their readiness to build a new arsenal of the free world alongside Ukraine.
I’m pleased to announce in this format, secondly, that Ukraine is developing a special economic regime for the defense-industrial complex. To give all the opportunities to realize their potential to every company that works for the sake of defense – in Ukraine and with Ukraine or that wants to come to Ukraine.
Thirdly, in Ukraine, we will establish a special Defense Fund, which will provide additional resources, including for the development of military production and support of relevant collaborations, for the creation of new military facilities and programs needed to ensure defense and take care of our warriors. The fund’s resources will be an addition to the state’s expenditures on defense, defense production, and private investments. The fund will be replenished through dividends from state-owned defense assets and profits from the sale of confiscated Russian assets.
Dear attendees,
All our guests, all our citizens, Ukrainians!
Soon, it will be 600 days of the full-scale war. 600. But no matter what happened, there hasn’t been a day throughout this long period when Ukraine felt any hopelessness and when Russia had even a glimmer of real hope to break us. We are confident in ourselves, confident in our citizens, in our partners. We are a strong nation. We are a courageous people. A state with global significance. We will undoubtedly prevail. We will create such a defense potential for Ukraine, and therefore for the entire free world, that it will be a reflection of our strength.
I thank everyone who works in Ukraine, who works with Ukraine! And I invite everyone who wishes to multiply their strength to cooperate – with our country, it is possible.
Glory to Ukraine!
.@rustem_umerov
The First International Defense Industries Forum – DFNC1 📷
252 companies from over 30 countries in Kyiv.
The Ukrainian side signed 20 documents with foreign partners: agreements and memoranda on the manufacture of drones, repair and production of armored… pic.twitter.com/lGrRuTd49s— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2023
The First International Defense Industries Forum – DFNC1 📷
252 companies from over 30 countries in Kyiv.
The Ukrainian side signed 20 documents with foreign partners: agreements and memoranda on the manufacture of drones, repair and production of armored vehicles and ammunition.
Formats of cooperation: joint production, exchange of technologies, supply of components.
📷We are creating a Defense Fund.
Filling from dividends of defense enterprises and confiscated assets of the russian federation.
Distribution in three directions:
– welfare of warriors
– military infrastructure
– development of new technologies
We are also creating the Alliance of Defense Industries and plan to introduce a special economic regime.
I am sure that today’s Forum will have an important impact on the future of Ukraine.
Move forward to victory.
Was happy to welcome Minister of Defence of Slovak Republic @SklenarMartin in Kyiv during the International Defence Industries Forum.
Grateful to Slovakia for their assistance and strong support. 🇺🇦 🇸🇰
Together we will win! pic.twitter.com/3F63HHXqsV
— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) September 30, 2023
Tomorrow, October 1, Ukraine will mark Day of Defenders on a new date for the first time.
Stop wherever you are. Take a moment to honor those who safeguard us and fight for our country's freedom.
Sunday, 9:00 a.m. A minute of silence. A moment of honor. pic.twitter.com/ey8NK70vRY— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2023
The price:
«The enemy won't just go away. We have to fight for our lives, our freedom, our land, our borders, our future.» When Evil invaded Ukraine, restaurateur Olenka joined the 47th Mechanized Brigade. She is fighting to ensure a safe and peaceful future for her eight nephews, and for… pic.twitter.com/1mOtUBMUDs
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2023
«The enemy won’t just go away. We have to fight for our lives, our freedom, our land, our borders, our future.» When Evil invaded Ukraine, restaurateur Olenka joined the 47th Mechanized Brigade. She is fighting to ensure a safe and peaceful future for her eight nephews, and for all Ukrainian children.
7-year-old Irynka Moroz from Chernivtsi region sold her 45 centimeter-long braids and raised UAH 3 000 to donate to the #UAarmy.
📷 Chernivtsi Regional Council pic.twitter.com/OgZUsGkqak— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 30, 2023
Here’s some subject matter expert analysis of Ukraine’s ongoing offensive:
A retired colonel of the British army, Richard Kemp @COLRICHARDKEMP, had the opportunity to see the Ukrainian counteroffensive with his own eyes.
He has served in many hot zones around the world: Northern Ireland, the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Here is his professional take… pic.twitter.com/s8C2GwaERr— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 29, 2023
The Melitopol direction:
Leopard 2A6 and M2 Bradley cover the infantry of the 47th Mechanized Brigade in the Melitopol direction. pic.twitter.com/Hq3x7aXkZr
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 29, 2023
Klischiivka:
Weapons free!
Intense gun battle outside Klishchiivka, south of Bakhmut; where Ukraine's 80th Air Assault Brigade is trying to hold off Russian forces trying to recapture it. (https://t.co/wPjEXU96LM) pic.twitter.com/p6UzGgnNSG
— Mike Eckel (@Mike_Eckel) September 30, 2023
And now a view from Russian side of things in Klischiivka:
A group of Russian servicemen recorded this video before being sent by Putin into a meat assault in Klischiivka, Bakhmut direction.
The men, counting 10 members plus 5 in support, were told to occupy a residential area in Klischiivka, where Ukrainian superiority was tenfold, in… pic.twitter.com/ywAaMLe6H7
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 30, 2023
A group of Russian servicemen recorded this video before being sent by Putin into a meat assault in Klischiivka, Bakhmut direction.
The men, counting 10 members plus 5 in support, were told to occupy a residential area in Klischiivka, where Ukrainian superiority was tenfold, in addition to firepower from Leopard tanks.
They added that in Klischiivka, Russians already lost 1000-1200 soldiers senselessly. This was necessary to enable positive reports on the news about Russian counterattacks in the area.
Recorded on 19 September, the video was meant to be released to the public if “something went wrong” with the men. Their fate is not known.
It’s HIMARS O’Clock somewhere in the Donbas:
By the looks of it, Ukrainians started a proper hunt for the traitor and pseudo-intellectual Aleksandr Khodakovsky, and know his exact location.
"Vostok" battalion telegram channel published a message today saying their base was again attacked with HIMARS missiles. This follows… pic.twitter.com/pFJlClWquO
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) September 30, 2023
By the looks of it, Ukrainians started a proper hunt for the traitor and pseudo-intellectual Aleksandr Khodakovsky, and know his exact location.
“Vostok” battalion telegram channel published a message today saying their base was again attacked with HIMARS missiles. This follows a report from about a week ago when a vehicle carrying Khodakovsky was struck with HIMARS, but missed closely, and he was lucky to get out alive.
This time, a building was hit where training was taking place, and Khodakovsky was on one of the floors, but managed to survive, again.
Бог любит троицу 🤷♂️
The last sentence above translates as “G-d loves the Trinity.”
Kharkiv:
The prototype of this work is a real soldier Taras, who is currently fighting near Bakhmut. I hope he will come to Kharkiv and see it himself one day pic.twitter.com/f3OBoTF00c
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) September 30, 2023
Vive la France!
France will transfer to Ukraine:
– 8 EFA self-propelled ferries,
-6 Caesar self-propelled guns,
-8 SDZ engineering robots https://t.co/i0GfkQiaZ9 pic.twitter.com/knBTSqveIA— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 30, 2023
We continue to watch and see if Russia’s strategy of creating a new refugee crisis for the EU will pay off. The Financial Times has the details: (emphasis mine)
This summer the pretty, peaceful town of Görlitz in eastern Germany was roiled by its biggest demonstrations in years. The trigger — a scuffle at a high-school graduation party.
What began as a fight at a popular disco, the L2 Club, quickly escalated into unrest that appeared to capture Germany’s political divisions over migration. While the police were making inquiries, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party sprang into action.
It called for a protest against “migrant violence”, and within two days, hundreds of locals took to the streets.
Referring to the brawl at the L2, in which eight people were hurt, Sebastian Wippel, a former police officer who sits for the party in Görlitz city council, said: “We never had this kind of thing before . . . The aggressors were quite clearly foreigners.”
The L2 incident fed a narrative that the AfD has been peddling for years: that rising immigration is threatening the German way of life and making the country less safe.
“They just couldn’t believe their luck,” said Jana Lübeck, a leftwing councillor. The AfD used the L2 “to sketch out a dystopia that I’ve never experienced in Görlitz”.
Famed for its Gothic spires and baroque mansions, Görlitz has long been a happy hunting ground for the AfD: the party makes up the largest group in the town council and Wippel nearly won elections to become mayor there in 2019.
But now the popularity of the party — sections of which have been designated extremist by German domestic intelligence, and one of whose leaders is to stand trial for using banned Nazi slogans — is spreading far beyond such eastern strongholds.
Nationally it is polling at nearly 22 per cent, ahead of all three parties in chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition: the Social Democrats, Greens and liberal Free Democrats.
The party’s poll success means it is increasingly setting the tone in Berlin too, where centre-ground politicians are finding themselves dragged into a debate on race and immigration they are ill-equipped to fight. Friedrich Merz, leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union, recently made waves by calling his party “an Alternative for Germany — with substance”.
Many now worry what the AfD’s strength could mean for three crucial elections next year, in the eastern states of Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia. Some polls suggest the party could win all three.
It will not actually be able to rule: no one else will work with it. But if it continues on its current trajectory, some German states could struggle to form workable government coalitions, especially in the east.
“There is a real risk that Saxony in particular will become ungovernable,” said Jana Krauss, a councillor with the group Motor-Görlitz/Alliance Greens.
The AfD, which says it wants to see a ceasefire in Ukraine and has condemned the EU’s economic sanctions against Russia, has also provided a vehicle for Germans unhappy with Scholz’s support for Kyiv.
But pollsters say the key to the party’s success is immigration. “We have a huge influx of migrants into Europe right now, just as large as during the 2015-16 refugee crisis,” said Kai Arzheimer, a political scientist at Mainz University. “And that’s the AfD’s big issue.”
Yet the AfD used the L2 fight to suggest Görlitz was experiencing a breakdown in law and order. “They’re trying to undermine trust in the organs of the state, and in doing so, weaken them,” said Krauss, the Greens councillor.
A fellow councillor from the group Motor Görlitz/ Alliance Greens, Mike Altmann, who took part in the town council debate said the AfD group were just “scaremongers and doomsayers”. They had put on a “show” that left him “numbed and tired”.
“I was amazed at the vehemence with which they maligned our town,” Altmann said.
But Lukas Rietzschel, a novelist who lives in Görlitz, said the AfD’s “scare tactics” were now “determining the discourse” in the town.
Rietzschel ruffled feathers recently by calling for the AfD to be banned. A democracy, he wrote, should defend itself against “actors who plan its liquidation”. Soon afterwards he found threatening messages in his letterbox. “They said ‘you have interesting views’,” Rietzschel recalled. “And ‘we know where you live’.”
Much more at the link!
Putin’s strategy here is to create a food crisis that both drives up prices and produces a famine in parts of the global south. The latter, will, in turn create a new flood of refugees into Europe, which will allow his proxies – the AfD in Germany, the National Rally (formally the Front National) in France, and their equivalents in Italy, Spain, Greece, and other EU members states – to then use both the increase in food prices and the increase in the number of refugees to push the EU and NATO member states to either reduce or stop their support for Ukraine. That’s the strategy. We continue to wait and see if it is feasible, acceptable, and suitable.
The Starlink Snowflake has made his contribution to Putin’s strategy. Marisa Kabas has the details:
After taking aim at people attempting to migrate to our country, he took to Twitter to talk about the banal things he learned from his border jaunt, and then took a hard right turn into German politics. Even for him, it was shocking.
Musk shared a post from another account Friday morning criticizing German NGO’s (non-governmental organization) for providing ships to rescue African migrants unsafely crossing the Mediterranean to Italy. “These NGOs are subsidized by the German government. Let’s hope AfD wins the elections to stop this European suicide,” the account wrote. Musk then added his own commentary, asking: “Is the German public aware of this?”
The German Foreign Office responded to Musk’s query by tweeting, “Yes. And it’s called saving lives.”
Yes. And it’s called saving lives. https://t.co/7eTCbKhG8w
— GermanForeignOffice (@GermanyDiplo) September 29, 2023
Some seven hours later, Musk shot back: “So you’re actually proud of it. Interesting. Frankly, I doubt that a majority of the German public supports this. Have you run a poll? Surely it is a violation of the sovereignty of Italy for Germany to transport vast numbers of illegal immigrants to Italian soil? Has invasion vibes …”
Let’s just be crystal clear: The richest man in the world who has been vocal about his antisemitism and hatred of immigrants is asking the German government if they’re proud organizations from their country are helping save lives, and Musk is A) confused as to why they’re proud of that, B) asking if they’ve run a poll to gauge whether Germans are into saving lives, and C) accusing Germany of invading Italy.
One might forgive Musk for thinking he has even the slightest bit of authority in geopolitical matters: After all, in the last two weeks he’s met with Netanyahu, as well as the president of Hungary to discuss family values and the “demographic” decline. (That means white people.) And his company Starlink had a major impact in Russia’s war on Ukraine. But at the end of the day, he’s just an idiot who owns a website that he’s run into the ground.
Let’s also be clear that when Musk asks about a “poll”, he means a Twitter poll. Yes, the same mechanism he employed a few weeks back to see if people supported him banning the Anti-Defamation League, a Jewish organization that has been critical of his approach to content moderation. He believes his platform supersedes elections and legitimate government decisions, and I think in his twisted mind, truly sees a future where the results of a Twitter poll become law.
All that aside, this series of exchanges is remarkably alarming. The original post he re-shared references the AfD, Alternative for Germany. It’s a far-right German political party that is rabidly anti-immigration, and whose youth recruitment arm has been classified as an “extremist group”. Sound familiar?
Amazingly, the Starlink Snowflake decided to go after the German government on his website the day after the news broke of series safety related issues at the Tesla factory in Grunheide, Germany.
Obligatory!
That’s enough for tonight!
Your daily Patron!
What is truly work/life balance. SES sappers edition 😄 pic.twitter.com/NlI6Ac9BkK
— Patron (@PatronDsns) September 30, 2023
Open thread!
Villago Delenda Est
If one votes against aid for Ukraine, one is declaring oneself a Russian agent.
End of story.
Jay
Thank you again Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re most welcome.
karen marie
The senate Republicans smell blood in the water. Thune doesn’t face reelection until 2028. He’ll get as jiggy as he needs to to replace McConnell.
Gin & Tonic
Which is over if Fico wins.
Between that and the House CR, I am not optimistic.
tobie
I’m concerned about the rise of fringe politics in Germany. I’m beyond alarmed at how far it’s gone here. Even Mitch McConnell has become a dinosaur in his own party, and his overriding philosophy as GOP Senate leader was power at any cost. The Republicans are faced with a rabid base they can no longer control. Some elected Republicans give in to them because they’re afraid and it’s convenient to do so. Others are as profoundly undemocratic as the base. If Putin wins this war, it’s because he realized that promoting grievance was the best way to destroy Democratic governance.
Geoduck
I’ll bite, why 45 days? Gets them past some election somewhere?
hotshoe
Thanks for including the info from Desiderio.
Honestly, I don’t understand the factions among Rs — I’ve gotten too old to wrap my mind around the switch from Rs who used to hate Russia more than anything on our planet into folks who now are willing to see Russia reoccupy all of Ukraine and then all the Baltics and Poland and any of the rest of our NATO allies within reach.
Well, I admit I don’t understand the factions — but for what it’s worth I remain reasonably hopeful that House and Senate will succeed in passing the separate bill for Ukraine aid which is needed.
Frank Wilhoit
So, why 45 days? What happens, or will have already happened, in mid-November? Surely the game cannot simply be to push it out past the Virginia state legislative elections…? But perhaps it is, because the defining characteristic of stupidity is the inability to distinguish between less important and more important things.
satby
@Frank Wilhoit: Lotta government workers in VA, and the election would be a bloodbath for the Rs if there was a shut-down before. Which might weaken the current Great White Hope that the Rs think might be able to run as Pres if something happens to their current front runner.
Chetan Murthy
@hotshoe: Wiser folks than me have written about this subject, and I’m just channelling them (with my own errors!)
They say that until the liberal anti-communists in the US got all het up about Russian expansion in Europe, the GOP was all-in on isolationism *right after the end of WWII*. But when they realized that being anti-communist meant they could beat up their favorites: leftists, labor, minorities, poor people, they signed up alright. It’s a convincing story, and lines up with the history I remember of that period, so it might even be correct.
On that story, the GOP never hated Russia for being Russia; they hated Russia b/c Russia sided with people the GOP hated. Well, now Russia sides with people the GOP loves, so …. what’s not to like?
I saw a funny one: GWB is the fourth greatest Republican President of all time. Lincoln, Eisenhower, [somebody else, I forget], and then GWB. Maybe GWHB was ahead of his son, I forget.
Villago Delenda Est
@Chetan Murthy: I thought that Nixon was the worst Republican President of my lifetime. Then along came the shitty grade-Z movie star. Then along came the deserting coward. Then along came TFG.
Adam L Silverman
@Geoduck: Who was the 45th president?
Chetan Murthy
@Villago Delenda Est: Well, I have a distinct memory that RaYgUn wasn’t on their list of “greatest”, that’s for sure. I think the reason it’s funny, is that all GOP Presidents (besides Lincoln, Eisenhower[1]) were so shitty, that even the Chimperor stands out as being above the cut.
[1] Oh, maybe the other GOP Prez on the list was Grant? I forget. And it was a X(sh)it, so no way I can find it again.
SiubhanDuinne
@Geoduck:
@Frank Wilhoit:
I have a terrible stupid feeling that the “45” refers to TIFG’s number. They emblazon it everywhere like some magic presidential gematria.
ETA: As Adam pointed out while I was typing.
Jay
karen marie
@SiubhanDuinne: Wait till they find out it’s Jewish.
Cameron
@Chetan Murthy: Maybe Teddy Roosevelt?
SiubhanDuinne
@karen marie:
Like Soros space lasers.
ColoradoGuy
The Republicans have never forgiven one of their greatest Presidents, Teddy Roosevelt, for splitting the party and giving progressive Republicans a path out of the party. A couple of decades later, another Roosevelt invited them to become Democrats. And most of them did, leaving very few progressives in the GOP. Remember, in the 19th Century, the GOP was the progressive party, and the Democrats were the party of the disgraced South.
In the Nineties, Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh completed the cleansing of the GOP of the centrists, and nationalized Confederate values. So the GOP is now the anti-Lincoln and anti-Teddy Roosevelt party. They are now the party of Jefferson Davis, reactionary fascists.
(The Nazis saw the US South as a good template, with slave-owning oligarchs controlling the world.)
Frank Wilhoit
@SiubhanDuinne: That makes a Hell of a lot more sense that assuming that they can think through something as complicated as gaming out the consequences for the marketability of Glenn Youngkin.
Another Scott
Rep. Don Beyer (my representative):
Good, good.
Cheers,
Scott.
Geoduck
Re: 45. Right. That would not have occurred to me. I’d prefer to believe the Virginia elections theory, at least that’s tactically sensible, if evil.
Steeplejack
@Frank Wilhoit:
There are some other elections, not just in Virginia, including House seats in Rhode Island and Utah and three state governorships.
Another Scott
@SiubhanDuinne: I’m no expert, but I think that 1) they wanted the deadline to be after the Virginia elections on November 7, and 2) they wanted it to be a week when they’re normally scheduled to be in DC.
House Calendar (12 page .pdf). For October and November they were normally scheduled to be in DC only October 17-20, October 23-26, and November 13-16, and November 28-30.
45 days from October 1 is Wednesday November 15. That gives them a day cushion (on the 16th) before they bug out for the weekend.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
Okay, even with all the unrelenting awfulness happening, this made me snicker, so thank you for that. I still and always will hate the fact that a minority population of bigoted maniacs gets to essentially ruin everyone else’s lives forever by electing other bigoted maniacs to be in positions of power.
Since tomorrow is the Day of Defenders of Ukraine, I don’t have much to spare but I’ll be throwing a few bucks into the BJ for Ukraine thermometer after the moment of silence (which will be 11pm for me).
Really moving essay from a journalist from Bakhmut:
Thank you as always, Adam.
Andrya
@Geoduck: The two theories (get past the Virginia election and a shout-out to TIFG) are not mutually exclusive. I suspect both were operating.
Carlo Graziani
“Vive Le France” should be “Vive La France”. One of these annoying gendered language things…
Jeffro
They definitely want to win both houses in VA this November, but as I mentioned this morning, the billionaires that run the GOP are going to get DeSantis and Haley on the same page, and shove the other non-trumpov candidates out of the race.
(while keeping Smiling Glenn on tap for 2028)
Gin & Tonic
NPR has a story up on the Web (sorry, can’t link) with the hed “Anger grows over Ukraines largest Orthodox Church, still aligned with Moscow despite the war.” Right below that is a photo, the caption of which begins “The Kyiv Lavra is one of the holiest sites in Orthodox Christianity.” The photo is of St. Michael’s, not the Kyiv Lavra – and St Michael’s has been the seat of the Ukrainian Patriarchate for years, and the Kyiv Lavra is by no measure Ukraine’s largest Orthodox church. Complete fucking incompetence, like posting a pic of the Cathedral of St John the Divine and saying “here at St Patrick’s Cathedral…”
Ohio Mom
@Chetan Murthy: Maybe somewhere in this history of the GOP embracing Russia is that the Koch family made there first big money working for Moscow?
This is definitely not my area. But the money they made building refineries there is what allowed them to become the behemoth they are, branching into paper cups and who know what else.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: I’m sorry they messed up an important story so badly.
Link.
Is this the correct photo?
I ass-u-me that the error was a consequence of an intern or web slinger grabbing a “prettier” picture, rather than malice.
If you’re able, and have the time later, please consider using their correction form to let them know. They won’t get better without people pointing out their mistakes.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
Thanks, Adam for this update.
Regarding Musk – this man went down to our southern border acting like some kind of cowboy with his hat and stuff (see BJ post further down) but lawd – he seems to like going around to various countries and start commenting on their border issues.
I think he’s a putin supporter, as is a lot of the GOP. If you’re against Ukraine funding – you’re a Russian puppet and should be treated as such.
glc
@SiubhanDuinne: Also 88 was too long, and 14 too short.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: I never imputed malice, only incompetence.
Andrya
Josh Marshall at TPM has an insightful article pointing out that the House Republicans gave up on spending cuts, gave up on abusing undocumented immigrants- in the end the ONLY thing they asked for, for the CR, was cutting off aid to Ukraine (link). This is a very bad sign- and in my view, cultural conservatism/anti-LGBTQ+ hostility does not explain it. (After all, the Republican base is plenty hostile to undocumented immigrants.) Maybe I’m a bit paranoid here, but it’s hard not to believe that russian government money injected into our politics is the driving factor.
Another Scott
@Gin & Tonic: Sorry. Very clumsy wording on my part. Thanks for pointing it out.
Cheers,
Scott.
Chetan Murthy
@Andrya: It tracks, doesn’t it, with “in his 2016 campaign TFG took every side of every issue except one: Russia”. The GrOP (and esp. the House GrOPer caucus) is all-in on Trump, and that means being all-in on his issues. Of which he pretty much has two:
100% agree with you that it’s a very bad sign.
Thor Heyerdahl
@Another Scott: Thanks for the correction link. I’ve sent them a request to update the photo.
Uncle Cosmo
@Gin & Tonic: Just curious here, but:
The last comment on the Khodorovsky story – Бог любит троицу, “God loves the Trinity” – sounds like it might be the Ukrainian idiomatic equivalent of “Third time’s the charm.” Is it, by chance?
Villago Delenda Est
I am skeptical. Qevin is an honorless cur. Apologies to all canines everywhere, who are good dogs, unlike Qevin.
Villago Delenda Est
@cain: Elno is a fuckin’ Nazi. No quarter for him.
Villago Delenda Est
@Gin & Tonic: That Luna idiot rep posted MiGs in a tweet supposedly honoring the USAF. So it’s a widespread stupidity.
Chetan Murthy
@Villago Delenda Est: It’s a recurring pattern with the GrOPers, isn’t it? TFG used to do it; the RNC used to do it, and it’s only continued since then. It’s almost like there’s a plan to it: if I were that shitbird Luna’s SVR handler, I’d demand that she post these things as a sign of loyalty.
Adam L Silverman
@Ohio Mom: No, the Koch patriarch made his money as one of the Federally appointed guardians for an Osage family that owned large amounts of land with oil below it. That’s how the white Oklahomans dispossessed the Osage. The got all Osage to be declared mentally deficient/defective/incompetent and, as a result, required to have a white guardian to make all the decisions for them. This reversed the economic and social order that had developed as a result of the Osage land being petroleum rich, which made the Osage tremendously wealthy. Both individually and collectively. The Koch patriarch was one of these guardians and stole everything the Osage he was guardian for had.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: And she was junior enlisted in the US Air Force!
Villago Delenda Est
@Adam L Silverman: The father of Charles and David was a guy who came up with a revolutionary drill bit that big oil at the time scoffed at. So he took the drill bit to Uncle Joe Stalin, and proceeded to make money for both himself and Uncle Joe. Fred thought he could hornswoggle Uncle Joe by renting out the operations expertise, but Joe out robberbarroned his ass, and trained Russians to do the work Fred wanted to parasite off of. Thus, Fred founded the John Birch Society.
Lyrebird
I don’t know either, but FWIW I was wondering the same!
hotshoe
Senator Michael Bennet, Colorado, makes this statement:
My transcription (didn’t see a source I could copy/paste).
I don’t see the Senate Leadership statement anywhere (yet) — and of course it will only be words in the air until if/when they get back to work next week and actually hammer out some legislation …
but I remain reluctantly (given my lifelong pessimism and cynicism) optimistic after this; both the House and Senate can see that their anti-Ukraine members are losers, and that not only the moral but also the politically-smart thing to do will be get that funding pushed through while this CR is in place.
Gin & Tonic
@Uncle Cosmo: It’s close, but not exactly. I’ve heard it in a drinking context – you’ve already had two, somebody pours another and says God loves threes. The word for a triple of something is трійка, the Trinity is трійця, so they are almost the same, and you get the slightly sacrilegious effect.
Adam L Silverman
@Villago Delenda Est: Here you go:
I confirmed that Palast wasn’t way off the looking glass and through the map with a good friend and former boss who is Native American from Oklahoma.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
It’s a bit wild that Kevin McCarthy’s very narrow house majority rests on 2 members who arguably (may have) won their seats through election fraud (clownishly false resumes, that would get anyone in the public sector instantly fired with prejudice), and a third with major biographical embellishments. (They all got in the low-mid 50 percents of their votes.)
George Santos
Andy Ogles
Anna Paulina Luna
Bill Arnold
@Bill Arnold:
Sheesh. Meant “private sector” but “public sector” works too, for many non-elected jobs.
Citizen Alan
@Villago Delenda Est: I was born 7 months into Richard Nixon’s first term. Which means that there has never been a day in my life when the GOP wasn’t worse than it was the day before.
Redshift
@Frank Wilhoit:
I’m dubious of that, too, but the only reason I find it at all plausible is Youngkin is the candidate of the billionaire oligarch overlords of the GOP. McCarthy can’t herd his rabid weasels at all, but he could probably decide the length of the CR on his own, and I could see orders coming down from the money men to take it past Election Day. Not saying I’m completely convinced, just that it’s not completely implausible.
way2blue
Apropos Musk’s comments at the southern border, with his cowboy hat on backwards and video of him shooting a sniper rifle from the hip…
I just finished reading a recent article in The Atlantic focused on Musk’s grandfather, Joshua Haldeman, (Mor Far) that is quite illuminating. I’ll embed a couple quotes below. But the title alone sets the tone: Elon Musk’s Anti-Semitic, Apartheid-Loving Grandfather.
From The Atlantic:
Even though Musk’s grandfather died when he was only 2-years-old, his beliefs seem to have left a mark.
The rest at: < theatlantic.com/2023/09/joshua-haldeman-elon-musk-grandfather-apartheid-antisemitism/67539 >
randy khan
I read the White House statement on Ukraine aid as putting pressure on McCarthy to let the majority of his caucus win the argument, rather than giving into the nihilists. (Personally, I think he should basically double-dare the crazy caucus to go after him, as I suspect they all know that displacing him wouldn’t really get them anything, but I’m not him and I’ve never cared as much as anything as he apparently cares about being Speaker.)
Another Scott
WhiteHouse.gov:
Interesting – I thought 45 days was November 15. November 17 is a Friday.
Cheers,
Scott.
randy khan
@Villago Delenda Est:
Beyer is no dummy. This was a dig at McCarthy, nothing else.
bjacques
Late again, but I’m glad the House Democrats passed the CR even without Ukraine funding. The majority voter support for it and for Democrats might have been seriously eroded if Jeffries had let the government be shut down over it, even though it was the GOP majority who were too divided to pass the CR themselves.
Also too, I don’t believe the White House hasn’t prepared for this, so I expect they’ll meanwhile still find ways to support Ukraine militarily, perhaps via other countries.
Third, the donkey in the room is that the CR couldn’t pass without Democratic help, and the Squeaker and the noncrazy Republicans, especially those in marginal districts, owe the Democrats big time. Ukraine funding may just be that chit.
I expect that, as Gaetz and the wackos will continue to beshit themselves in the next 45 days, McQarthy will get himself even deeper in hock to Jeffries.
Finally, the Dems are simply smarter than the Repugs, who got rolled this spring.
So I’m confident it’ll work out for Ukraine.
HumboldtBlue
Youse truly are from the Island of Misfit Toys.
Robes.
Forsooth.
Subsole
@hotshoe:
Because Putin has built their dream society.
Rich white hetero-presenting men of the proper ethnic pedigree rule like medieval nobility. They pillage the state and its people at will. The law protects them, and never binds them, and is theirs to wield as they see fit.
The lower caste whites are free to beat their wives, abuse the foreigner, pogrom the Jew, and generally behave like animals who figured out how to put on pants. They are content with this, because they love being hateful wretches more than life itself – because it makes them feel less afraid and insecure.
Those who don’t like this arrangement stay very quiet, or they get beat like one of the outgroups. It is a nation of pompous, ignorant, deceitful, slovenly chest-thumping little bullies ripped from your worst memories of junior-high jock culture.
The intellect rots under the assault, and soon you are living in a neo-feudal paradise, where the gentry and the church preside over a new peasantry.
That’s the draw for chuds like Musk.
The rampant homophobia, xenophobia, misogyny, and general atavistic benightedness is the draw for the rest of them.
8,000 years humanity spent breaking those chains, and these fucks are trying to drag us back into them. I wish them cancer.
@cain:
Oh yeah. Dude is practically a Boogaloo Boy, at this point. Hard Redpill.
Gin & Tonic
@Another Scott: Thanks for the link to the feedback page. They corrected the story/photo, and I got a note from the reporter apologizing.
Shalimar
@Another Scott: Makes it pretty obvious “45” is a symbolic nod to Trump and none of them care what the actual date is because none of the MAGA faithful will check and/or can count that high, doesn’t it?