Ukrainian air defense was busy last night/this morning:

Tonight’s work of the Ukrainian air defense. 30 out of 32 targets claimed to be intercepted. https://t.co/xFEBgC1j3e pic.twitter.com/8mRBrFsuCv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 3, 2023

I want to write a bit about the recent continuing resolution and the political defenestration of Kevin McCarthy. To set this up, I want to focus on this point that Brian Beutler made yesterday: (emphasis mine)

The most right-wing House Republicans threatened McCarthy’s speakership unless he held firm for a lengthy list of partisan ransoms (that is, unless he shut down the government). He tried, he failed, he buckled, government functions continue.

But there’s another story playing out this year. It places a bit less emphasis on the dramedy horror of internal GOP politics, and more on the way the rest of the system maneuvers to resist or accommodate them. And in that telling, Republicans keep seizing must-pass legislative items, screaming and leveling threats each time, aiming weapons every which way, including at their own heads, and then walking away with … something. So far, each time, it’s been something fairly small. But the pattern persists, and the precedents they’ve set should alarm all of us.

There’s obviously much truth to the idea that the House Republican conference includes a large number of reactionaries who make aggressive demands of their leaders, and to the idea that Democrats haven’t responded to the ensuing “inmates taken over the asylum” vibe by caving to their demands in the hope of sparing the country worse punishment.

But Republican leaders are also perfectly happy to walk into negotiations with Democrats saying “my guys are so crazy, I need to appease them with something,” and Democrats are perfectly happy portray the small ransoms they pay in the end as insignificant relative to the initial hostage threats—and thus evidence of their resolve and superior negotiating skills. That’s what the White House did back in June after President Biden paid McCarthy modest ransoms for raising the debt limit, and it’s what Hakeem Jeffries and his allies are doing now.

In this case the token that was paid was the FY 2024 funding for Ukraine. Yes, I’m aware that the House Democrats, as well as the Senate Democrats and Republicans will be submitting a supplemental bill to get the funding taken care of. But there are a few strategic challenges here. The first is that the government is only funded for 42 more days. So if they can’t get it passed quickly, it won’t be in either the next CR, if there even is one, the 12 appropriations bills themselves, or the omnibus appropriations bill. So even if one of those three legislative options for funding the US government past the middle of November were to work, none of them are going to include the FY 2024 funding for Ukraine. And now that Gaetz and his fellow travelers have actually tasted blood and taken a trophy, they will be emboldened to shut the government down in mid-November unless they get everything they want. The rest of the GOP caucus will NOT stop them. We’ve got 42 days though, right? Not really. By removing McCarthy, even with the caretaker continuity of the House (government) Speaker Pro Tem as acting speaker, Gaetz has just ground the House and its business to a halt. There’s no compromise candidate here. The Democrats are rightly not going to provide any aid or comfort to the House GOP caucus or anyone seeking the position of speaker. So we technically have 42 days, but we don’t really have that amount of time. The chaos that Gaetz and his fellow travelers have created is intended to both ensure a government shutdown and prevent any additional aid to Ukraine being passed. Whether Gaetz and his fellow travelers can achieve their objectives or are now the dog that caught the car remains to be seen.

The only positive news is that the US still has $5.2 billion left it can use to send material to Ukraine, which is the equivalent of the cost of the last six months of military aid. And that the US Army is ready to send the ATACMs as soon as President Biden signs the transfer order.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Kharkiv does not just hold on, but helps keep our entire east strong – address by the President of Ukraine

3 October 2023 – 19:19

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today I am in Kharkiv region. Kupyansk and Lyman directions, then the city of Kharkiv. Our warriors, combat brigades, commanders.

Together with the team, we paid a visit to the 103rd separate territorial defense brigade, the 68th separate jaeger brigade named after Oleksa Dovbush, the 25th separate airborne brigade “Sicheslav”, and the 15th mobile border guard detachment “Steel Border”. Today I had the opportunity to talk to servicemen from other brigades as well.

As always, we talked to the battalion commanders. Specific needs of the units. Weapons and supplies, as well as manning the brigades. There are things that need to be done, in particular, to ensure that our brigades have greater motivation and combat capabilities.

I also had the honor to award the warriors who distinguished themselves – soldiers, sergeants, and officers. Different units, different combat paths, but equally strong Ukrainians! I am proud of all of them!

It was a great pleasure to award our combat medics.

Thank you all for protecting Ukraine, for confidence in Ukraine! Thank you for your chevrons and coins – I will keep them.

Today I also held separate long meetings with all those responsible for defense and socio-economic situation in Kharkiv and the region. There are many issues that are important for the region. Especially in the run-up to winter. Especially given the constant Russian terror against Kharkiv, against the region and the occupier’s attempts to intensify the assaults on our positions.

I heard a report from General Syrskyi, as well as from the heads of the regional Security Service of Ukraine and the National Police – detailed reports on the protection of Kharkiv region.

We discussed the protection from Russian shelling, energy supply to the cities and villages of Kharkiv region, protection of energy facilities, restoration of housing and social sphere, as well as humanitarian demining with the relevant officials – the regional and city heads, the Minister of Energy, the CEOs of Ukrenergo and Naftogaz, and others.

It is extremely important that Kharkiv, despite everything, does not just hold on, but helps keep our entire east strong. A proud and bright city that will always be a city of strength for Ukraine and the whole of Europe.

The meetings also resulted in instructions on preparations for the heating season, reconstruction, and physical protection of energy facilities from Russian attacks. Everything needs to be fulfilled, and some issues require significant acceleration.

Tomorrow I expect a detailed report on the restoration projects from the government officials. Separate instructions were also given to the military.

In the coming weeks, we will be working very actively with our partners to ensure that our warriors have more weapons and ammunition, particularly air defense – this is most important.

Thank you to everyone who helps Ukraine! Glory to all who defend our country and people.

Glory to Ukraine!

During a working trip to the Kharkiv region, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the locations of the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade, 68th Jaeger Brigade, and 25th Airborne Brigade, which are carrying out combat missions in the Kupiansk-Lyman area. The President… pic.twitter.com/m0Qw9ljLql

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 3, 2023

Zelensky visited units defending Kharkiv today. They took care to conceal sensitive information on the wall, except for one flag that said:

Putler, how f…ing annoying you are! pic.twitter.com/uNKNwj9mcx

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 3, 2023

During a working trip to the Kharkiv region, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the locations of the 103rd Territorial Defense Brigade, 68th Jaeger Brigade, and 25th Airborne Brigade, which are carrying out combat missions in the Kupiansk-Lyman area. The President received information from the units about their priorities, and presented awards to service members and combat medics who distinguished themselves while defending Ukraine.

The Head of State also visited the tank unit of the 21st Mechanized Brigade, where he inspected equipment provided to the Ukrainian army by its Western partners, including Leopard 2 tanks and CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, which were used in battles in the Kupiansk area.

The cost:

Rafael Nikanorov 🇮🇱🇺🇦 fall in battle while storming moscovites positions at Zaporizhya.
BDE brother we will never forget you RIP from "Mavet team" 🇮🇱🇺🇦.
תנוח על משכבך בשלום אח לא נשכח ולא נסלח. pic.twitter.com/gHjag70lsb

— 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 Knukli (@11Knuk123) October 3, 2023

The price:

It’s hard to say goodbye. pic.twitter.com/N9YajNDcnG

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 3, 2023

On February 24, 2022, Denys Fedko's relatives attempted to evacuate from the Kherson region. Through his phone, Denys heard how the occupiers were shooting everyone, including an eighteen-month-old child. On that day, Denys quit his business and decided to devote himself entirely… pic.twitter.com/8dt4bsSApj

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 3, 2023

On February 24, 2022, Denys Fedko’s relatives attempted to evacuate from the Kherson region. Through his phone, Denys heard how the occupiers were shooting everyone, including an eighteen-month-old child. On that day, Denys quit his business and decided to devote himself entirely to volunteering. He has been evacuating civilians from the war zone and helping those who have been left behind.

🎥 @holosameryky

Let’s talk about our motivation to fight.
We are fighting on our own land — to protect our loved ones, our way of life, and our right to be free.
We have a question for those who have come to occupy our cities and villages, destroy our homes, torture civilians, slaughter women… pic.twitter.com/PQixG91VOU

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 3, 2023

Let’s talk about our motivation to fight.
We are fighting on our own land — to protect our loved ones, our way of life, and our right to be free.
We have a question for those who have come to occupy our cities and villages, destroy our homes, torture civilians, slaughter women and children: What exactly are you fighting for?

🎥 @AFUStratCom

Somewhere on a Ukrainian river:

Meet 🇺🇦 river flotilla. pic.twitter.com/aWazcl7ZPK

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 3, 2023

Here’s a new assessment from Tatarigami:

Here are some recent key updates for the past 7 days:

– Russian military is expected to deploy at least a brigade-sized force with enhanced offensive capabilities in the near future.

– Russian forces made multiple unsuccessful attempts to reclaim positions south of Bakhmut,…

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 3, 2023

Here are some recent key updates for the past 7 days:

– Russian military is expected to deploy at least a brigade-sized force with enhanced offensive capabilities in the near future.

– Russian forces made multiple unsuccessful attempts to reclaim positions south of Bakhmut, resulting in significant losses.

– Russians are currently facing challenges with their artillery barrels, but they are actively pursuing solutions to address them.

– Recent Ukrainian forces’ attacks deep into russian territory have necessitated adjustments to russian logistical routes and methods, leading to added challenges.

– Russian command appears to maintain confidence in their ability to defend Tokmak and its surrounding areas.

– At the same time, it continues to struggle with communications and the supply of high-quality communication devices to its units.

And for those trying to kick your Twitter habit:

Given Elon Musk's increasingly unpredictable and openly hostile behavior towards Ukraine, please remember to follow me on Bsky (https://t.co/iectzVODwd) and Stack, the link to which you can find in my bio.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 3, 2023

Speaking of the Starlink Snowflake, Gin & Tonic was good enough to send the actual response of the Verkhovan Rada we were discussing last night:

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine responded to Elon Musk, but later they deleted the post. pic.twitter.com/oaxpeByhE5

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) October 2, 2023

The Ukrainian granaries are open! Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

All three Ukrainian Black Sea ports have reopened to vessels for grain exports, despite Russia’s threats to target ships heading to Ukrainian ports.

Source: Bloomberg

The first 10 vessels have used the corridor that Ukraine established after Russia refused to continue with the grain deal, despite Russia’s threats to sink vessels heading to Ukrainian ports.

It is also reported that international insurance companies have resumed the coverage of insurance risks.

“The passage of ships is a signal that Ukraine’s daring bet to set up its own trade route after the collapse of a safe-corridor agreed with Russia has paid off,” the agency wrote.

Bloomberg said that under the safe corridor agreement, all vessels heading to Ukraine are inspected in Istanbul and their loads consist exclusively of agricultural products.

According to independent Russian media outlet The Moscow Times, the operation of the corridor has largely been made possible thanks to the neutralisation of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has been extensively bombarded by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to extend the agreement with the UN and Türkiye on Ukrainian grain exports.

“The Fleet is basically locked in the city of Sevastopol now, and this has made the route in the northwest of the Black Sea, along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, safer,” the outlet wrote.

Meanwhile, insurance broker Miller, technology company Clearwater Dynamics and the Ukrainian government reported that they have “joined forces to offer full insurance coverage of all military risks for vessels operating in the Black Sea”.

Thanks to advanced technology from Clearwater Dynamics, all vessels using the corridor that are in Ukrainian ports are now being tracked 24/7 until they leave the high-risk zone.

The new corridor is protected with minefields. The route lies along the coast to the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria, which are NATO member states. The previous grain corridor lay directly across the sea to Istanbul, where a joint commission of UN, Turkish and Russian representatives checked vessels delivering Ukrainian grain.

And so is the Baltic grain corridor!

Finally a breakthrough in grain exports negotiations! Ukrainian grains will now transit faster to Africa and Middle East through Poland and Lithuanian port of Klaipeda 💪🏻🤝 https://t.co/infWe3aQ89

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 3, 2023

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There’s a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. They don’t embed here, so click across if you want to see it.

Open thread!