Simchat Torah begins tonight at Sundown. The holiday celebrates the Deity giving the Torah/Law to the Israelites, which is a major portion of the conditions of the covenant between the Deity and Jews. It is usually a very raucous, celebratory, and joyous holiday including lots of singing, dancing, drinking, and eating.
๐ฅOver 100 dead & over 900 wounded thus far in Israel today
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅIsraeli radio stations have been turned over to open lines for desperate, shattered citizens calling in to share their phone numbers and beg, beg for help. Total system collapse.
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
In an interview on @MSNBC I said that the invasion from Gaza is Israel's 911 and that what Hamas did in the Israeli villages near the border is like the Russian massacre in Bucha. Watch it here: pic.twitter.com/7HwH7mSNHT
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
Here’s what we know so far. Hamas, with support/assistance from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) has made a major cross border attack into southern Israel. This appears to have been a complete security and intelligence failure, as well as immediate governmental response collapse, by the Israeli government and its security services.
๐ฅIt has been eight (8) hours, more than 40 dead, at least 800 wounded, and no Israeli government representative has stood in front of cameras and spoken to the people. Its a complete collapse. https://t.co/IzVBv8gdME
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
The BBC reported in their 11:29 AM update that:
Israel Defense Forces: We are fighting in 22 locations
More from the Israel Defense Forces, who have confirmed their troops are fighting in 22 locations in a statement.“There is no community in southern Israel where we do not have forces,” it says.
Hamas has claimed they have captured senior Israeli officers and will use them to negotiate for release of Hamas prisoners in Israel. According to the BBC the IDF is denying that Hamas did not capture a major general.
There are numerous social media reports, including videos, that Hamas has captured a number of female Israeli military personnel and brought them back to Gaza. Basically there’s three videos and two pictures. None of them are being posted by any official or verifiable – and I don’t mean an $8 a month blue check for Elon verifiable account – many of them from India. It is unclear in any of them if these women are in fact in the IDF. None of them are in uniform. One is in heavily soiled grey sweat pants, another in a green 1/4 zip top and black yoga type tights. This woman may be in both a video and one of the still images as the clothing sort of matches. Another appears to be in pajamas sitting on a divan. The audio is so garbled because so many men are yelling that it is impossible to tell what the woman in the green top is screaming or in what language. If they are young Israeli women then one would expect they are either within their two year mandatory period of military service or in the reserves. However, Hamas has been known to stage these types of things.
There is also a video on social media of two men sitting in the bed of a truck with their feet on the back of a dead woman. There is blood matted in the back of her hair, her face is not visible, and she is stripped to her underwear and is wearing what appear to be black rubber or leather over the calf boots with a zipper up the side and rubber soles, not combat boots. This is being promoted as Hamas is parading the corpse of a female Israeli Soldier through the streets of Gaza. She is definitely dead.
I’m not going to post any of that stuff here.
Current Israeli civil rights lawyer and former Shin Bet (Israel’s internal security service) coordinator Gonen Ben Itzhak posted this at 4:09 AM:
๐ฅ "My father, Brig Gen (ret) Uzi Ben Yitzchak, asked me to ask why they're not saying the truth: that 26 battalions, almost all the regular IDF, is in the territories. There is almost no army in the south. All this due to a decision of the extreme right-wing government." https://t.co/e6np4bKhDg
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Here’s Ben Itzhak’s full tweet with (machine) translation (as my Hebrew is very, very rusty!):
ืืื ืฉืื, ืชื"ื ืขืืื ืื ืืฆืืง, ืฉืืื ืจื"ื ืคืืงืื ืืจืื, ืืืงืฉ ืืื ื ืืฉืืื ืืื ืื ืืืืจืื ืืช ืืืืช: 26 ืืืืืื, ืืืขื ืื ืฆื"ื ืืกืืืจ ื ืืฆื ืืฉืืืื. ืืื ืฆืื ืืืขื ืืืจืื. ืื ืื ืืืืืืช ืืืฉืื ืืื ืืช ืืงืืฆืื ืืช.
ืฆืจืื ืืืืจ ืืช ืื ืืจืืจ.
ืฆืจืื ืืืขืืืจ ืืืืืช ืืืืื ืืขืื ืืืกืืืจ ืืื ืืืืจ ืืช ืืืืจ ืืื ืืชืช ืืืโฆ
— Gonen Ben Itzhak ืืื ื ืื ืืฆืืง (@GONENB1) October 7, 2023
Here’s the machine translation of the Hebrew: (I’m exceedingly rusty, so this is the better option)
My father, Brigadier General Uzi Ben Yitzchak, who was the commander of the Central Command, asked me to ask why they don’t tell the truth: 26 battalions, almost all of the regular IDF is in the territories. There is almost no army in the south. All this by a decision of an extreme right-wing government.
It should be said clearly.
Forces should be transferred from the West Bank to Gaza and close the fence at all costs and not let them return to Gaza
From what I can tell from reading and parsing various social media posts, someone pulled IDF personnel to secure and guard a religious site in Nablus, which is in the West Bank, and other sites in the West Bank so that they might be accessed as part of Simchat Torah festivities.
ืฆื"ื ืืืงืฆื ืืืืื ืฉืืืฉื ืืืืื ืื"ืจ ืืื ืืืืื ืื ืืกืช ืืชืคืืืื ืืฉืื ืืืงืื ืืืืื ื ืืืขืืช 'ืงืืจ ืืืกืฃ'.
ืชืจืืื:
ืฆื"ื ืกืืื ืืืืื ืืช ืืืืืื ืฉืืื ืืื ืืืืื ืืช ืืคืจืืืืงืืืจืื.
ืืื ืืืื ืืื ืคืจืืืืงืืืจ ืืฉืื ืืืื ืคืจืืืืงืืืจ ืืืืจ ืืืืื ืืืฃ ืืืืื ื. ืืฉ ืืืื ืืื:
ืืืืจ ืืืืื ืืืฃ ืื ืืืืืื ืืื ืืกืื ืืืืืื
— ืืืื ืขืืคืจ (@Eyalo365) October 5, 2023
Machine translation:
The IDF assigned three infantry battalions tonight to secure the entry of worshipers to Nablus to a place mistakenly known as ‘Joseph’s Tomb’.
translating:
The IDF endangered your children tonight to secure the provocateurs.
There is no difference between a provocateur in Nablus and a provocateur in Dizengoff Square on purpose. There is one difference:
In Dizengoff Square they are safe without endangering soldiers
Here’s some additional reporting on this:
Clashes bw IDF and local Palestinians continued today as funeral held for Palestinian killed.
Question needs to be asked, again: why do the IDF/Border Police keep allowing settler mobs to simply march into the center of a Palestinian village and do whatever they want, again?
— Neri Zilber (@NeriZilber) October 6, 2023
And these are the types of folks, though not the same group or location as this was in Jerusalem not the West Bank, that the IDF and border police have been pulled out of position to safeguard:
We decry the recent incident in Jerusalemโs Old City in which a group of Jews who were observing Sukkot spat at Christian pilgrims and sites. Had the roles been reversed, we would have no trouble describing their behavior as antisemitic. We commend Israeli law enforcement forโฆ
— Ambassador Deborah Lipstadt (@StateSEAS) October 6, 2023
We decry the recent incident in Jerusalemโs Old City in which a group of Jews who were observing Sukkot spat at Christian pilgrims and sites. Had the roles been reversed, we would have no trouble describing their behavior as antisemitic. We commend Israeli law enforcement for their swift action in identifying and apprehending the culprits.
At 5:35 AM Yoav Zitun YNet’s military correspondent posted this:
ืื ืชืื ืฉื ืื"ื, 22 ื ืจืฆืืื ืืฉืจืืืื ืืืืืงืจ, ืืืงื ืืืืชืจ ืื ืืคืืืช ื-4 ืืฉืืืื ืื ืื ืืืขืจืื ืืืืก ืขืืืื ืฉืืื ืืืืืื ืืืื ืฉืืืฆืข ืืื ืืชืืจืจื ืืืืฉื.
ืืื ืชืืื ืืืืงืืช ืืืืจืื ืืช ืขืื ืืืืจื ืืืื ืืช ืืืฉืจืื ืืืืช ืืืืื ืืฉืขืจ ืื ืื: pic.twitter.com/widTNcwRiX— ืืืื ืืืชืื (@yoavzitun) October 7, 2023
Machine translation that provides the context for the video:
The MDA figure, 22 Israelis murdered since this morning, is extremely partial because in at least 4 settlements in the Western Negev Hamas is still in control and the dimensions of the massacre it carried out in them will become clear later.
Meanwhile, from the last few minutes another mass infiltration into Israel from Beit Lahiya to the Negev gate:
The situation is serious enough that the former PM volunteered for active duty this AM:
ืฉืืืืืื ืืฉืืืจ ืืืชื ืืื!โค๏ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ@naftalibennett https://t.co/UpQokLwBQV
— ืึทึผื โฉ Bar Zohar (@israeli_falcon) October 7, 2023
Machine translation of the quoted tweet:
How serious is the situation? The former prime minister is standing next to me right now and has enlisted to help
Quoting tweet:
May God protect you Amen! โค๏ธ๐ฎ๐ฑ
ืื ืืืืืฃ ืืืืจ ืืืื ืืืืฉ ืืืื ืืืืฆื ืืืืื!
ืืืืืจื ืืฉืจืื ืืืืืชืืื ืื ืืืื ืืฉืงืจื ืืคืชืืืืื ืืืืื ื ืืืคืืืื ืืืจืื ืืฉืจืื. https://t.co/TUUYuUqPmB
— ืึทึผื โฉ Bar Zohar (@israeli_falcon) October 7, 2023
Major Yair Golan also wears a uniform and goes out to fight! The real heroes of Israel as opposed to the pathological pathological and criminal liar who destroys Israel.
Haaretz correspondent Bar Peleg, fresh off an amazing report on how Canada is treating Eritrean refugees previously living in Israel, is in Sderot in southern Israel:
ื ืื ืกืชื ืืฉืืจืืช. ืืืืื ืื ืืฆืืืื ืืืกืืืจ ืืช ืื ืฉืื ื ืจืืื ืคื ืืืช ืจืื ืืชืืื ืืช ืื ื ืืขืืืฃ ืืืกืื. ืืืคืืช, ืืืื ืืืช ืืืืจืจืืช, ืืืกื ืืืช ืฉื ืงืืืฆืณ ืขื ืืจืฆืคื ืืชืจืืืืื ืจืืื. ืืื ืฆืืื ื ืื ืก ืขืืฉืื ืืชืื ืืขืืจ, ืื ืืืืืช ืืฆืื. ืืฉืื ืื ืืฉืืืขืื ืืขืืจื
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
I entered the boulevard. Words will not be able to explain what I see here and I prefer to save most of the pictures. Dead bodies, punctured cars, clutch cartridges on the floor and many backpacks. A military force is now entering the city, also rescue forces. The neighbors are desperate for help
ืขืฉืจ ืฉืขืืช ืืืืืง ืืชืืืืช ืืืืืื ืืืืืืคื ืืฉ ืืืืื ืขืืืื ื ืืฉืืื ืืฉืืจืืช ืืืืืจ ืชืื ืช ืืืฉืืจื. ืขืืฉืื ืขืื ืื ืฆืืื ื ืื ืก ืืืืืจ. ืืกืืื ืจืื ืืืืืืื ืขื ืืงืืข ืืื ืฉืขืืืื ืื ื ืคืจืง pic.twitter.com/EbMj38B0mm
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
Exactly ten hours before the start of the fighting and heavy exchanges of fire are still going on in Sderot in the area of โโthe police station. Now another military force is entering the area. Nearby is the terrorist vehicle with a heavy machine gun that has not yet been unloaded
ืืืื ืืืช ื ืืืฉืืช, ืืืจืืช ืืคืืืืืช, ืืื ืคืืฆืืฆืื ืืจืื ืฉื ืืืง ืฉืจืืคื. ืืืืก ืืืืืฉื ืืืจืื pic.twitter.com/S0MLsOZ983
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
Abandoned cars, others sooty, the sounds of explosions and the smell of gunpowder. Chaos on the roads of the south
ืืืื ืืื ืืกืชืืื ืคื ืืืื ืืืืืฉ ืืืชืืืฉื ืืืืช ืืืืื ืืืช. pic.twitter.com/AfUcsbUK9S
— Bar Peleg (@bar_peleg) October 7, 2023
This dog wandered here lost on the road and sat in one of the cars.
Civilians apparently span elderly citizens in wheelchairs and toddlers
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
I think this thread sums up how the major security and intelligence failure occurred:
ืืืืืื ืฉื ืคืชืื ืืืืงืจ ืื ืื ืืงืจื. ืืืืฉืืื ืืืืื ืฉื ืืืืฉืื ืืืืช ืืืืคืืกืืช ืืืืืืืช ืฉื ืืจืืืืื ืื ืื ืจืง ืขื ืืื ืคื ืืื. ืืืจื ื ืืช ืื ืืืชืจืขื ื ืืืฃ ืคืขื: ืืืืืื ื ืจืืืื ืื ืืืืฉืื ืคื ืืื ืืืื ืื ืฉืืฉ ืืื ืืืืื ืืช ื ืืืจื.
ืื ืืืืื ืื ืืืจืืืื ืื ืืืืืืื ืืืื ืืืืจืื ืืืืืกืืืื ืฉืขืืื ืขื ืคืืจืืง ืืืืจื
— Chaim Levinson (@chaimlevinson) October 7, 2023
ืืื ืจืง ืฉืืืืฉืื ืืืืช ืืืฉืืช ืืื ืชืืื, ื ืขืืจืช ืื ืืืื ืืืช ืืฉืืื ืืืืื, ืื ืื ืขืกืืงืื ืืืืืืืง.
ืขืฉืจืืช ืคืขืืื ืืชืจืืขื ืฉืืืืืื ืืืื ืฉื ืื ืืืืจ ืขื ืืืกืืจืื ืืฉ ืื ืืฉืืขืืช ืืืคืจืืืงืฆืืืช ืืืจ ืืืืช ืืฉ ืืื ืืฉืืขืืช ืืืืฉืจืืฃ ืืช ืืืืืจื ืืขืื ืืื. ืืื ื, ืื ืขืื. ืืืื ืื ืืช ืืืคืกืื ืฉืื ืืชืื
— Chaim Levinson (@chaimlevinson) October 7, 2023
Machine translation of all three tweets:
The war that started this morning is no accident. The resounding failure of this government and the complete incompetence of its members is not only an internal matter. We have said it and warned it a thousand times: our enemies see who the government is here and they realize that they have a rare opportunity. All the Levins and Rotmans and Bibs and Ben Gevirs and Distals who worked on the dissolution of the company succeeded.
Everyone saw that there is no state here and no police here, there is no social cohesion and the government has no legitimacy to do anything. Everyone sees that the government’s reaction capacity is nothing and nothing, that it is made up of idiots and brainless people.
Beyond the obvious intelligence failure, the failure is strategic from above. The policies of Netanyahu and Gallant have failed.
And not only does this government fail in every area, it lacks any policy of thinking and vision, they are also busy lighting the fire. Dozens of times they warned that Ben Gvir’s cheap warming of the prisoners has a meaning and the provocations on the Temple Mount have a meaning and burning Hvara will cost blood. And lo and behold, it rose. Bibi so your zeros and go
I wrote back in July, as the protests against Bibi’s extremist reactionary coalition and its attempts to subvert Israeli foundational and statutory law ramped up that if I were the Palestinians I would attack. I wrote this not because I wanted that, or what is happening now, to happen. Rather, I wrote it because from a strategic point of view Israeli has never been weaker than it has been for the past three months and a couple of weeks. Bibi only cares about remaining in power and staying out of prison. His even more extreme and reactionary coalition partners only care about using the power of the state to forcibly establish their conception of Judaism as a religion in an illiberal managed democracy/Jewish theocracy. All of this was not only predictable, it was, in fact predicted.
๐ฅFrom July: "Military Intelligence Warns Netanyahu: Our Enemies Identify Historic Points of Weakness." pic.twitter.com/9ucMa4Iqn5
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Everyone, however, will pretend it was a complete surprise!
Why it matters: This is the biggest and most serious invasion against Israel since the 1973 war and it caught the country and its civilian and military leadership by complete surprise https://t.co/Uc7qzgThGC
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
Unpredictable remarks from Gen. (Res.) Amos Gilad. [for decades senior security official]: "The sources of this catastrophe lie in the regime change".
*ืืืจืื ืืกืจื ืชืงืืื ืฉื ืืืืฃ ืืืื' ืขืืืก ืืืขื: ืืงืืจ ืืืฉื ืืื ืืืคืืื ืืืฉืืจืืช* pic.twitter.com/gmB46iYtGr
— Daniel Seidemann (@DanielSeidemann) October 7, 2023
If you’re wondering if this will actually bring Bibi’s downfall, the answer is no, no it will not!
BREAKING: Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid says he told Netanyahu he is ready to form an emergency unity government that will run the war
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
๐ฅThe Israeli army warned Netanyahu for months that his push for government overhaul put Israel at great risk of a multi-front attack. He dismissed their warnings by accusing the military of "joining the left-wing protesters" against him. His ministers said army could go to hell. https://t.co/zxJmti4j6G
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
I have a line chart I put together for a keynote I gave in 2004 on comparative violent extremism. One axis was Bibi in political/electoral trouble and Hamas strikes. The other was time. As in from 1994 to 2004. Care to guess how the data points lined up? The sad reality is that Bibi and Hamas need each other. Neither can exist without each other, just as neither can exist if there’s an Israeli Palestinian peace agreement. Bibi will exploit today’s attack to protect himself and remain in power. And he’ll be enabled in that by those who oppose him because their interests are the good of their state and society, not their own bank accounts, remaining in power indefinitely, and staying out of prison.
Here’s the thread she’s quoting:
2. Peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians have long been dead in the water, any glimmer of reigniting the idea of a two-state solution will now be extinguished. Some have argued Israel played up existential threat of Hamas. From now on Israel will cite 7 October.
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) October 7, 2023
4. Israeli army told me โevery option is on the tableโ including the long term re deployment of Israeli forces inside Gaza. โThey will pay a huge priceโ. Except massive bombing of Gaza, a possible ground incursion once the south is under control.
— Bel Trew (@Beltrew) October 7, 2023
๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฅWith missiles raining down on Israel, more than 100 dead and over 1000 wounded, Opposition Leader Lapid offers Netanyahu a lifeline: An emergency unity government: "I propose removing the unprofessional elements from the cabinet. I have no doubt that Gantz will also join." https://t.co/LhuLxK0n9X
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
The following four tweets – two tweets and two quoted tweets – are all part of the same thread:
๐ฅThe question 'how does Netanyahu survive this disaster?' may just have been answered by Lapid. https://t.co/bOSliJHqvw
— Noga Tarnopolsky ื ืื ืืจื ืืคืืืกืงื ููุบุง ุชุฑููุจููุณูู๐ (@NTarnopolsky) October 7, 2023
Is this the first time since 1948 that Israel loses control of its towns and villages? In 1973, the surprise Egyptian and Syrian breakthroughs were in occupied Sinai and Golan, not in sovereign Israel proper. https://t.co/1TW1rfzCVQ
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 7, 2023
If any one is curious, here are the Russian and Ukrainian responses:
ืฉืืื ืื ืืืืืืื ืืชืืืืืช ืฉื ืจืืกืื ืืืืงืจืืื ื ืืืชืงืคืช ืืืจืืจ ืืจืฆืื ืืช ืฉื ืืืืืก ื ืื ืืฉืจืื, ืฉืืืื ืืื ืืืื ื ืืืจืืื. ืืืืขืช ืืฉืจื ืืืืฅ ืืจืืกื ืืืืืื:
ืดืืืกืงืื ืืืืขื ืืืื ืืืืจื ืืืืชืจ ืืืืืจืืจืืช ืืืื ืฉื ืืืฆื ืืืืืจ ืืกืืกืื ืืคืืกืืื ื-ืืฉืจืืื. ืืืงืฉืจ ืื ืื ื ืืืฉืจืื ืืช ืขืืืชื ื ืืขืงืจืื ืืช ืืืขืงืืืช ืืคืืโฆ
— Yair Navot – ืืืืจ ื ืืืช (@Navot_Yair) October 7, 2023
Machine translation:
Note the differences in Russia’s and Ukraine’s responses to the murderous terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel, which included mass slaughter of civilians. The Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement in full:
“Moscow is extremely concerned about the sharp deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict zone. In this context, we confirm our principled and consistent position that this conflict, which has been going on for 75 years, has no solution by force and can only be resolved through political and diplomatic means, through a full negotiation process on a well-known international legal basis, which allows for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders with its capital in East Jerusalem, which lives in peace and security with Israel. We see the current escalation as another extremely dangerous manifestation of a vicious cycle of violence, which is a direct result of chronic disobedience to the relevant resolutions of the United Nations and its Security Council and the de facto blocking by the West of the work of the Middle East “Quartet” of international mediators consisting of Russia, the U.S. “B, the European Union and the United Nations. We call on the Palestinian and Israeli sides for an immediate ceasefire, a renunciation of violence, the exercise of necessary restraint and the establishment, with the assistance of the international community, of a negotiation process aimed at establishing a comprehensive, sustainable and long-awaited peace in the Middle East.”
Put aside the irony and cynicism of the Russians, who dare to talk about respecting international law, while massacring the citizens of Ukraine. Note that Moscow refuses to clearly and unequivocally condemn the Hamas organization for its massacres during the day against Israeli civilians, including women and children in their homes. Russia does not recognize Hamas as a terrorist organization, and even occasionally hosts the heads of the organization in Moscow, including Salah al-Aruri, one of the architects of today’s attack.
And now pay attention to the announcement of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry:
“Ukraine strongly condemns the ongoing terrorist attacks against Israel, including missile attacks against the civilian population in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. We express our support for Israel and its right to defend itself and its people.’ In addition, President Zelensky published a message on his Telegram channel that read, among other things: “Terrible news from Israel. My condolences to all those whose family and friends lost their lives in the attack. We believe that order will be restored and the terrorists will be destroyed. Nowhere in the world can terrorism be given another chance, because terrorism is always a crime not only against one country or its specific victims, but against humanity as such and our entire world. Whoever uses terrorism is a criminal against the world. Whoever finances terrorism is a criminal against the world. The world must be united and in solidarity so that terrorism will never try to conquer or eliminate life. Israel’s right to defense cannot be doubted.’
Despite Israel having spent almost two years equivocating in regard to aiding Ukraine so as not to upset Putin, Ukraine makes a clear, unequivocal statement while Russia both sides things.
US responses:
Today, I spoke with @IsraeliPM about the appalling Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel. I offered our support and reiterated my unwavering commitment to Israelโs security. @FLOTUS and I express our heartfelt condolences to the families who have lost loved ones.
— President Biden (@POTUS) October 7, 2023
BREAKING: Biden after his call with Netanyahu: The United States warns against any other party hostile to Israel seeking advantage in this situation. My Administrationโs support for Israelโs security is rock solid and unwavering
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 7, 2023
We unequivocally condemn the appalling attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israel. We stand in solidarity with the government and people of Israel and extend our condolences for the Israeli lives lost in these attacks.
— Secretary Antony Blinken (@SecBlinken) October 7, 2023
My statement on the violent, unprovoked and despicable terrorist attack by Hamas against the State of Israel. pic.twitter.com/vpj3X8EE2y
— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) October 7, 2023
CHM @RepMcCaul "I strongly condemn Iran-backed Hamas terroristsโ unprecedented assault on Israel. I am shocked by the barbaric images we are seeing of Hamasโ violence and by reports Hamas is taking innocent Israeli citizens hostage.
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) October 7, 2023
"Israel has a right to defend itself and the United States stands with our friend and ally."
— House Foreign Affairs Committee Majority (@HouseForeignGOP) October 7, 2023
I’m going to be very clear here, I fully expect that the US Congress, especially the GOP controlled House, is going to set a political speed record in writing and then passing a supplemental military aid package for Israel. At the same time there will be no supplemental aid package for Ukraine. I also expect that this glaring discrepancy will get little coverage from the major print, broadcast, and cable TV news outlets, though their will be a lot of grandstanding on just how good an ally the US is when its friends and partners are in need. The Ukrainians will, of course, take note of this. As will the Russians, especially Putin. The lesson that Putin will take is that not only can the US be easily distracted, which he already knows, but that Ukraine is ultimately on its own and his strategy to create time is and will continue to work.
Bibi will, of course, survive this and emerge more secure than ever. As will the even more extremist and reactionary coalition partners he has enabled.
Hamas, especially its leadership, will be attrited.
The real victims will be the Israelis killed by Hamas and the Gazans killed by the Israeli response.
Open thread!
Dorothy A. Winsor
A sobering post, Adam. Thank you for keeping us informed.
twbrandt
Horrifying and depressing
japa21
Thank you for the very clear statement of the issues both leading up to the attacks as well as the issues going forward.ย As you say, I think Bibi will survive this, even though there is little question that his government had a role to play in not only creating motivation for the attacks but also the inadequate initial response.
This is 9/11 in a way.ย And it looks like the opposition parties will follow the in the footsteps of the Democrats and will be afraid of saying anything to negative or not supporting what may well be overreactionsย by the Israeli government.
To echo something you wrote, I have said for decades that 90% of Israelis and 90% of Palestinians could be in favor of peaceful co-existence, but people like Bibi and his ilk and people like Hamas (back then PLO) and its ilk would see that as threats to their power and make sure things would occur to prevent it from happening.
Alison Rose
Thank you, Adam. My mom and I were just discussing this, and commiserating about the fact that, more so now than ever, the concept of peace in this area feels like a pipe dream. Too many people all around the situation have zero interest in anything that could actually achieve a real peace.
My mom calls him Israeli Trump. He’s maybe not as stupid (a low bar) but otherwise, yeah.
And this is probably the only place I can feel okay about reading comments, because as much as I know that the Israeli government has not exactly covered itself in glory, and that Bibi is indeed a piece of shit as are many others in his coterie, in a lot of places people will leap right over any legitimate criticism to blatant and gleeful antisemitism.
If the multiverse is real, how do I make my way to another version where people suck less?
Ella in New Mexico
And yet, can we hope that something like this will give more power to his opponents than anything he’s ever done in the past? I mean, his chief claim to power is he’s the most hardline protector of Israel, and here it’s pretty much pulled the curtain back on that lie.
Let’s all continue pray that there is new hope for real regime change in Israel before more innocent people are slaughtered.
Great but sobering update, Adam. I was so busy last week was having a hard time putting the pieces together. Thank you.
Freemark
Israel FAFO. It is extremely sad. Israel pretty indiscriminately murdered Palestinians including children, stole their land, and gave them no recourse in the Israeli justice system. This was entirely predictable. Israel had become complacent with there Iron shields and thought Palestinians had no power to hurt them.
What Hamas is doing to civilians is heinous and Israel will end up killing most of the perpetrators and 100x more innocent Palestinians. The hatred on both sides will only get stronger.
John S.
@japa21:
Even if itโs not like 9/11, Bibi is going to run the 9/11 playbook.
Which means that he will have entrenched his power for years, have the ability to manipulate and change the government to his liking in the name of terrorism, accuse his detractors as unpatriotic or against Israel and commit all manner of atrocities in the name of freedom while using today as an excuse to pretty much do whatever he wants.
And even after all the failure and incompetence comes to light, Bibi will still position himself as strong on defense and the only hope for Israel โ just like Bush and the Republicans did.
p.a.
Has the GOPFOXNEWSMAXMUSK-X continuum played the “Biden weakness brought this about” card yet?
Carlo Graziani
It is always unwise to bet against Bibi’s eely survival skills, so you may well be correct that he will remain in power.
However, this situation is in a very dynamic phase, and it it risky to hazard any forecast with certainty while the dust is flying. At a minimum, as the army is quite likely to quickly turn this shambles around and create a discernible military success (in the end Hamas has nothing but surprise on going for it), the crisis is very likely to reinforce the credibility and authority of the IDF, which Bibi and his clown caravan of a government have been doing their level best to discredit as part of his survival plan.
That seems significant to me, because the IDF is the glue that holds the country together. A narrative could become established that the IDF saved the country in spite of Bibi’s efforts to geld it, and such a narrative would in effect make him a dangerous enemy of the essential symbol and receptacle of Israeli patriotism. And as much as he may try to run a 9/11 play to protect himself, there is going to be a unanimous chorus of senior IDF officers publicly calling bullshit on that story. Dubya never had that problem.
If anything could damage his Teflon skin, this is it.
HumboldtBlue
So wait, Israeli settlers killing Palestinians and bulldozing their houses is legitimate statecraft but Hamas fighting back and dropping missiles on Israeli settlements is terrorism?
What’s the difference between a missile dropped on a village and a bulldozer that plows one over into rubble? Why is Israels theocratic state given a pass when we condemn theocratic Muslim states?
I guess my question, seeing as though this isn’t 1973 anymore: why should I side with the Israelis here? What is it that Israel brings to the region that provides for stability? We’ve been told since I can remember — literally since I was born — that Israel is the sole Democratic state in the region, but that’s not entirely true, is it? Israel is also by all appearances an apartheid state, and apartheid has never squared with democratic principles are as far as I can tell.
I’ve been an unthinking Israel supporter my entire adult life based on that canard “the sole democratic nation in the region” and the extraordinary tale about the creation of the state of Israel (the first book I read about a battle commander that wasn’t involved in the Civil War or WW2 was Moshe Dayan), but when do we stop and examine the modern Israeli state that bears little resemblance to the state that beat back the Arabs in ’56, ’67, and ’73?
So much fucking killing, so much suffering, so much unnecessary pain, but it’s gotten to the point where if one wears a yarmulke one is by default on the side of good and if one wears a keffiyeh one is by default on the side of evil, and that’s as absurd as stating “my country, right or wrong.”
This is going to be a bloodbath.โโ
Another Scott
I noted downstairs an AlJazeera.com report from 10/4.
I have no doubt that these provocations were intended to inflame passions. And, as you say, history tells us that Bibi loves nothing more than unleashing the IDF.
Here’s hoping something good comes of this (I’m reminded that Sadat started the 1973 war to get Israel’s attention to forge a serious peace), but I’m not hopeful as long as Bibi is in power and too many Israeli voters are apparently insane.
Peace and comfort to the good people suffering through all of this.
Thanks, Adam.
Cheers,
Scott.
Major Major Major Major
Thanks Adam. What a mess.
Adam L Silverman
@HumboldtBlue: The framing of how to interpret these actions and events was set a long time ago. A lot of time, money, and effort has been spent, including by Bibi, in ensuring that framing is never broken. As a result it has created a wicked problem: that we can actually design a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fairly easily, what we can’t do is sell it.
As a result there will be a lot of death and destruction over the next several days.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Yep. I predicted this for the Army and DOD a long time ago. The internal unraveling of Israel’s polity and society because of what Bibi was doing, who he was empowering, and what they want to achieve and the external(ish) unresolved dispute with the Palestinians.
Adam L Silverman
@Major Major Major Major: Mess-o-potamia.
Carlo Graziani
Oh, and, thanks for the quick deep dive on this, Adam. As ever, even when I forget to say so explicitly.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: Nope, too late. I’m not validating your parking!/
HumboldtBlue
And I echo Carlos, thanks so much, Adam, for the quick turnaround and the insight, you’re an irreplaceable asset to this joint.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I’d like to be wrong, but I’ve been working this problem set a long time and if there’s anything Bibi is good at it is leveraging these types of failures to protect himself and advance his own interests.
Anyway
What a horrific attack, terrible. Always had this view of IDF and Israeli intelligence as being super competent and tough to get past. Surprised that Hamas was able to carry out something of this scale.
Geminid
I do not think Netanahu’s coalition will survive this war for more than a couple months. The two ultra-Orthodox parties will likely bolt and help make Benny Gantz Prime Minister.
Kent
The alternative view is that this isn’t the death of Netanyahu’s government but the death of Israeli democracy.ย And that Netanyahu will go into post 9/11 mode and use this as a pretext to further dismantle all opposition and democratic institutions.
Geminid
@Anyway: The Israeli security establishment is indeed competent, but its supporters and detractors often attribute to it extraordinary powers it does not have.
Hamas is a well organized, well armed and tightly disciplined outfit, and they have evidently eliminated the Israeli moles in their ranks. As shocking as it is, this attack was within their known capabilities. Israel thought Hamas could be deterred from an attack like this, but Hamas chose not to be.
Immanentize
I know we all live in the 9/11 world and draw most references from that time. But i will bring in another possible historic analogy: the January 1968 Tet offensive in Viet Nam. That actually ended poorly for the NV Army and its partners, but it was a huge dynamic change of perception about the war. A country already divided by the war, race, assassinations (many to come), right wingers seemingly acting with impunity towards protesters and minorities in some parts of the country….
The Tet offensive was a huge intelligence “surprise” and led to the lasting perception that something needed to change.
I have no udea what change is in store for Israel. Nor does anyone else. But events have blown apart the narrative of impenetrable fortress Israel. Outside the country, opponents will be emboldened. There will be recriminations and finger pointing and a weakening inside Israel. And what of the Saudis and UAE? They have a vote now. And Iran? For people saying this was an Iranian operation, I wonder where Hezbollah is — the true Iranian proxy in the area. All more questions and no solid arrows pointing to the safe exits.
cain
@Geminid:
What makes you believe that? I believe that a lot of fear and violence that Hamas has unleashed could support Bibi if he projects strength. But we all know he is a piece of shit. For all we know, the fool likely wanted this outcome.
It’s all done through courts and papers so it seems all legit – where as a missile is a big boom that is all chaos and so unpredictable. Creating shock and awe. So of course easy to fuck things up.
We are again involved in a grim situation in Israel and yes, the House is very ย much going to be doing their reflexive bullshit. But right now they got no speaker – so they can’t do jack shit accept elect a speaker. In fact, it might highlight that the GOP Is trouble because they are completely unable to act.
The problem in the Senate is that they can’t control it – so not sure what they’ll do.
The GOP also can’t go to all the political store because they know they can’t do anything until they have a speaker – it’s going to be a mess for them.
The messaging advantage is on the Democratic side.
way2blue
(Not the typical Saturday morning open thread.) ย Thank you Adam for pulling together so much context so quickly. ย Bracing myself for another horrific battle playing out in real time.
What if the Senate were to tie the two together? ย Reiterating the parallels between two countries defending their people & land. ย In need of our material support. ย Hope so…
Geminid
@Kent: Netanyshu can try, but I think he could not make such a course work. Democracy is too ingrained in that country. They’re not going to give it up to a loser, and that is how Netanyahu will be seen once this war is concluded.
Ivan X
Adam, this is an incredibly valuable roundup, that I really couldn’t get anywhere else. Thank you.
@Alison Rose: seconded, your whole comment
ETA: I defer to Adam with regard to knowledge of Bibi’s survival capabilities, but it does appear to me that the political circumstances are different than 9/11 were here: at that time, the USA was still on their mid-90’s “peace & propserity” high, and Bush was I think generally seen as mostly harmless even by the bulk of people who didn’t vote for him. In other words, he didn’t already have strong negatives among a large swath of the populace, as Bibi does.
Another Scott
Biden to give a live speech shortly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gixYhd8pjhw
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Geminid:
I really really dislike Hamas – they are really have no idea how to use soft power but seem to be a one trick pony. I can never understand how they plan on achieving their aims without just blowing shit up.
sab
@Immanentize: Interesting comparison.
cain
@Kent:
No, I don’t think it will go that way. You’re applying what would happen here in the U.S. Israeli has been constantly living under a threat of having missiles being launched at them. That isn’t us.
Americans are much more susceptible to FUD – just look at our media – it’s what they use constantly. We are much more likely to throw away Democracy for security than the Israelis.
Jay C
A few observations:
Geminid
@cain: Opposition parties will rally around Netanyahu for the duration of this war, which will likely end with an Egyptian- and Qatari-mediated ceasefire like the war in May of 2021 did. Then, the recriminations will be fierce.
This government was never that popular. It won a 64-56 Knesset majority in the last election, but only because two opposition parties fell below the 3.25% threshold for Knesset representation. It would have been a 60-60 standoff otherwise.
Polling since then indicates that Netanyahu would lose a new election badly. Now he’s been surprised by the worst attack on Israel,l since 1973. and he will not be forgiven.
Theoretically, Netanyahu does not have to call elections for over 3 years but I don’t expect the two ultra-Orthodox parties to stick with him.
J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian)
A question regarding the prediction of a quickly passed aid package for Israel: ย doesnโt the House need a speaker to pass such a package? ย At the moment the GOP congress critters canโt even pour piss out of a boot where the instructions are written on the bottom. ย Do you think they will get their shit together for the purposes of passing an aid package, or will simply continue to fling their shit at each other and rub what is left on the walls?
HumboldtBlue
@Immanentize:ย โ
That’s an excellent analogy and one worth thinking about.
MisterDancer
Thank you for the write up, Adam. It’s a really brutal situation, and one where both of the leadership seems checked out.
I especially wasn’t aware of the apparent provocations leading up to this — not that I think they are proximate causes, but they are emblematic of what I see people in the online Palestinian spaces noting with increasing frustration and anger. No real point here, just thinking out loud in the midst of tragedy.
Carlo Graziani
@HumboldtBlue: Second that.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid:ย @Kent:
MisterDancer
The powers McHenry has are vague. In some theories, he shouldn’t have the power to toss Pelosi and Hoyer out of their offices. But there’s also speculation that he might be able to negotiate a spending bill.
I think the problem is that this is another of those panicky post-9/11 ideas that only sounded good in that moment of fear and rage. Now that we actually have it, it turns out we didn’t write the proposal out with any clarity.
Adam L Silverman
@Immanentize: Because Hamas gets some backing and support from Iran, every time Hamas does something the usual “we have to do something about Iran, yesterday!” crowd blame Iran. My guess is a lot of the missiles that Hamas is using came from Iran. And if that is the case it will make the intelligence failure of missing Hamas stockpiling 2,000 plus missiles even worse.
Adam L Silverman
Phoenix_Rising
Thank you & I am sorry you are engaged in the terrible work of explaining this predictable, predicted development. Bibi will not surrender his power but I have to wonder if Israelis are perhaps in a stronger set of conditions to let organizing work than fat happy America was on 9/10/01. You gotta have hope.
SiubhanDuinne
@Another Scott:
Short and unambiguous.
Another Scott
@Another Scott:ย Short and to the point.
Cheers,
Scott.
cain
@Adam L Silverman:
What’s your opinion on this? Refusing a lifeline seems like he’s ready to commit poliitcal death or is there is some 3 dimensionalย chess going on.
Adam L Silverman
@way2blue: Can’t make it through the House.
SiubhanDuinne
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian):
Iโve been wondering the same, and have no notion what the answer is.
Adam L Silverman
@Phoenix_Rising: Thank you for the kind words. You are most welcome.
JPL
@Immanentize: Earlier I heard that the northern border against Lebanon was quiet.ย Not sure if that will last.ย Today was a terrorist attack but it does play into Bibi’s hands.ย ย imo
Old Man Shadow
Maybe Palestinians figure a quick genocide where they die fighting and take as many of the Israelis with them is better than a slow genocide of deprivation.
It’s a clusterfuck the world has ignored for 80 years.
So maybe no one will care even if it ends in a wholesale genocide in Gaza.
Adam L Silverman
@Ivan X: You’re most welcome. Thanks for the kind words.
scav
@MisterDancer: Weird things going on โ stumbled across this Jewish-American tourist breaking Roman sculptures yesterday, which led into the string of assaults against christians and christian artifacts which didnโt sound exactly like evidence of general (even internal) stability.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay C: We do have short wars. And we’ll see how long this one lasts.
Adam L Silverman
@J. Arthur Crank (fka Jerzy Russian): No one really knows. I’ve seen some subject matter experts refer to the rule that this Speaker Pro Tem position was created to indicate that all that person could do is call elections for a new speaker. However, others subject matter experts have rightly pointed out that as this is a continuity of government measure, then the Speaker Pro Tem has all the powers of the regular Speaker, but just isn’t in the chain of succession. And, as such, it is up to McHenry to decide what powers he wants to exercise and, as a result, what precedents he wants to set.
John S.
@Geminid:
I hope youโre right and Iโm wrong about how all this plays out. Only time will tell.
Adam L Silverman
@MisterDancer: One cannot sugar coat that Israel has been occupying the West Bank since 1967, occupied Gaza at the same time, and then effectively sealed off Gaza upon pulling out its forces. As such you cannot, or should not, ignore the Palestinian understanding of the conflict. Failure to do so wouldn’t make one pro-Israel, it would just make one blind to the actual factual reality.
Jay C
@Adam L Silverman:
Do we have any clear(er)* idea of what level of weaponry Hamas is lobbing at Israeli targets en masse in the current attacks? I know I have always assumed (likely incorrectly) that most Gazan missiles are cheap local product, banged together in basement workshops, and woefully lacking in accuracy/payload – though, of course, unfortunately quite capable of inflicting fatal damage. I know its a common trope that Iran has been supplying Hamas with more “sophisticated” armaments**; but how accurate is that?
*clearer than the usual media reports, which are usually just speculation/rumor/guesswork
** relatively: as we’ve seen from Ukraine, effective weaponry in the 21st Century doesn’t have to rise to F-35 levels…
Adam L Silverman
@cain: Bibi wants to normalize his platform and that of those he’s enabled and who as a result put and keep him in power. He can best do so by pulling Gantz and Lapid into his world. Make them as corrupt as he and Ben Gvir and Smotrich are all under the justification that it is for the safety of Israel. Then he’ll turn around and both play them all off against each other and claim that Gantz and Lapid are just as dirty as he is, so why not have the real thing.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay C: I have not seen any specifics reported yet.
Adam L Silverman
@scav: These types of things have been going on for a long time. I used to keep a clipping archive of them. They are almost never covered by US news media.
sab
@Old Man Shadow: Palestinians are not lemmings. They are people trying to survive in a very tough part of the world, as they have been trying to do for many centuries.
Soprano2
@Immanentize: My husband was in the Tet Offensive; it annoys him to no end that it’s seen as a defeat for U.S./S. Vietnamese forces when it wasn’t. You’re right about the perception of it, though.
Thanks for this Adam, how awful for everyone concerned. This is an intractable problem that too many people have an interest in prolonging. I wonder if it will cause the R’s in the House to quickly agree on a new speaker. I’m sure Ukraine supporters are already thinking about attaching that aid to anything R’s try to do for Israel.
wjca
The House being in the mess it is, it seems likely that the Senate will get a bill together and passed first.ย No reason Israeli and Ukrainian aid couldn’t both be in there, given the strong support for Ukraine in the Senate.
That would leave the House with the options of trying to take something out of the Senate bill (when a majority even in the House favors Ukraine).ย Or just passing something labeled “Aid to Israel Bill”, without paying much attention to the details.ย Given how detail-oriented the RWJNs aren’t….
Adam L Silverman
I think we now have some clarity on the female Israeli Soldier prisonsers. Nadav Eyal from Yediot Ahronot is reporting that Hamas quickly overran, seized, and then occupied an IDF base in southern Israel holding it for at least 10 hours. This would explain female IDF personnel out of uniform and in civilian attire being taken as prisoners.
scav
@Adam L Silverman: Doesnโt exactly surprise me, especially the not being covered by the US media end. ย Have they been picking up with the whole Bibi clinging to power embrace of hard-line elements? ย It still doesnโt strike me as evidence of a healthy system.
Ivan X
@HumboldtBlue: I’m not sure how to write a measured response to you, because I get where you’re coming from, at least in part, and I think it’s a fair question.
I’m Jewish, and was raised in an observant household, and I’m still partially observant, and I do feel that Israel represents something important to me. And while it may or may not represent something important to the United States politically or strategically — obviously that can be debated — I personally feel that Israel represents something important to all American and other diaspora Jews, as anti-semitism is on the rise worldwide, and it’s not just the Israeli government’s fault; it’s literally the fault of Jews existing, as it always has been.
The United States is really the only country in the world besides Israel that has offered any kind of safe home for Jews, though that’s increasingly in question. And, after World War II, the U.S. is really the only country besides Israel that has a significant population of Jews. So, to me, the alliance of the United States and Israel is, in fact, important, because, entirely selfishly, I want Jews to have a safe place to live in the world. (Though I want all other peoples to have one as well, of course.)
None of this is to excuse the inhumane, cynical, and self-defeating policies of Israel’s right-wing government against their second class Arab citizens, and the non-citizens in territories they control. Unfortunately, right-wing and theocratic extremism in Israel has grown, just like it has everywhere, and, it appears to me complacency and arrogance have rotted the leadership as well.
I guess my reponse to “why should I be mad at Hamas when Israel does shit that’s just as bad” is: I don’t believe that Israel ever had good faith parties on its 1948 borders with whom to negotiate peace, and that has kept the country highly militarized and distrustful.
I think Israel is, unfortuantely, now past the point of good faith negotiations themselves, due to a gradual corrosion of hope which probably began after the failure of the 2001 summit and which helped usher in an era of right wingers as peace advocates became weak and demoralized. So yes, now they’re just making the West Bank residents’ lives miserable, with no real game plan and justification for it. But it’s not as if, in my view, they could simply withdraw to 1948 borders and no longer have to worry about their security.
I also think that Israel’s religious right has posed an existential threat from day one, perhaps most vividly seen in Rabin’s assassination. And, having hostile neighbors doesn’t justify or excuse the abuses of settlement building and misery making for the people who live in the territories Israel occupies; even if there were a political or moral justification for keeping that land, there’s no justification for being worse than they have to be.
And yet, Hamas’ and much of the Muslim world’s objection to Israel’s existence is not simply political; it is anti-semitic, and we Jews have a hair trigger reflex around our survival, given our history and small numbers. When anti-semites murder Jews in Israel, it is emotionally experienced by me, and I suspect by many Jews worldwide, as an existential threat to the Jewish people, whether or not that is objectively true.
So, that’s my answer. Yes, the Israeli government in modern Israel has really done all it can to create ill will, operate with cruelty and indifference, and inflame the passions of their enemies and subjects.
And, also, yes, an attack against Israeli citizens by an organization that doesn’t just want Israel gone, but Jews dead, is going to make me take Israel’s side, and make me glad that the United States will support them.
I’ve tried to treat your question with respect, despite it internally evoking in me a somewhat primal defensive/aggressive response. I hope, if you want to respond, that you can do the same for me, despite your anger and outrage.
Nukular Biskits
Just a fly-by … working in the yard.
1000% agree with Adam in those closing paragraphs.
And, while I do NOT defend Hamas’ killing of innocent Israeli (and other) civilians, neither do I defend the Israeli response which tends to treat all Palestinians as “terrorists”.
Finally, while I also defend Israel’s right to territorial sovereignty, I’m sick & tired of US politicians (like my congressional delegation) reflexively excusing any/all Israeli gov’t actions as “justified”, refusing to acknowledge that Israeli gov’t policy under hardliners is greatly responsible for creating this environment and, of course, blaming President Biden.
Nukular Biskits
Oh, one more thing:
Thanks for the update on this, Adam.ย Not sure where you’re finding the time to do this, the Ukraine updates, hold down a job and still have time for a life and sleep.
Adam L Silverman
@scav: It is not a healthy system. It has not been a healthy system in a very long time.
wjca
Canada? Australia?
Just for two.
Old Man Shadow
@sab: I never said they were. The current Occupation is death by a thousand cuts or very slow ethnic cleansing of Palestinians by settlers.
Launching such a brazen attack is desperation. The response from Israel will be overwhelming.
One of their motives could be to force the world to pay attention and do something about the Occupation. One of their motives could be that it is better to die fighting than die of economic strangulation, political hostility, and religious bigotry over decades.
HumboldtBlue
@Ivan X:
This is why we read this blog, for people who know what they are talking about and who can clearly and cogently express that knowledge and experience. All you have written makes perfect sense to me as an outsider looking in on the Jewish experience.
Ivan X
@HumboldtBlue: Thanks. I agree with you about this particular blog!
Yarrow
Thank you for this informative post, Adam. It’s not possible to get this kind of information in one place elsewhere. Really appreciate you putting it together. As for the subject, what a mess. Awful.
Freemark
@cain: They are a lot like Republicans but with missiles.
NobodySpecial
Yeah, Bibi stays until he dies now, because that helps the Palestinian extremists get funds to continue killing people. And Bibi stays until he dies now, because as long as he’s in power, Israeli extremists get a free hand to continue killing people.
Only way this ends is either equality or genocide, and I don’t ever see Israel offering equality. We’re all just sitting shiva at this point.
HumboldtBlue
@Ivan X:ย โ
I will stand in sympathy of those in Gaza and other occupied territories, who deserve the same respect for their historical and national interests as Israelis do. Where or how I can reconcile that with support for the Jewish state, I have no clue, I just know that the extreme right wing in this country and the extreme right wing in Israel repel me in the most appalling ways and that people who have never had a choice in this fight will pay the price.
trollhattan
@Immanentize:ย โ
Tet makes for an interesting comparison, thanks for that.
Big Fucking Mess in maybe the messiest corners of the globe. I can’t possibly comprehend all the moving pieces and causes for the movement, but appreciate the rollup of available info. Ugggggh.
Cost of crude come Monday?
Geminid
@John S.: I am just stating an opinion- as in, I thinkย this will happen.
But I followed Israel’s last two elections closely, and the failure of Meretz and Balad to reach the 3.25% threshold did change a 60-60 outcome to a 64-56 Knesset majority for Netanyahu. Labor Party leader Michaeli refused to run a joint slate with Meretz, and Balad’s leader split from the Arab Joint list a few weeks before the election. Michaeli and Balad’s leader made costly errors here.
I suspect Michaeli was overconfident and was looking to improve her partiy’s standing in a future government that never came to be. Yair Lapid, Yesh Atid’s leader, also was much criticized for his campaign, which many felt “cannibalized” Labor and Meretz voters in order to build Yesh Atid’s strength.
The performance of Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am party was the only bright spot. He joined the Bennet-Lapid government that governed for only 11 months before Likud engineered its fall in June of 2020. People wondered how Israeli Arabs would regard an Arab party that served with a “Zionist” government, but Ra’am gained one MK and now has 5.
Of Ra’am’s 7 coalition partners, 3 are out of the Knesset. Bennett’s party collapsed, Meretz missed the threshold by one tenth of a per cent, and Gideon Saar’s New Hope party joined Gantz’s National Unity party.
Ivan X
@HumboldtBlue: I certainly won’t disagree with you on being appalled by the parties you’re appalled by, and I too sympathize with Palestinians under occupation who are innocent victims and who have the right to advance their own political and cultural interests. But I also think they are also victims of their leaders, who have never, in my view, acted in their best interests, and who have squandered opportunities back when Israel was a country not politically dominated by its worst elements. As humans, and victims, they have my sympathy. Their leaders’ longstanding intransigence with regard to Israel’s existence does not.
ETA: reconsideration of my original statement upon rereading your response.
Windpond
Thank you Adam. Every night I read your post on Ukraine and now this. The combination of your posts and the comments here keeps me well-informed. Your input is so valuable.
HinTN
@way2blue: My thoughts, exactly. The Senate can amend the Ukraine funding to it and send it back. The House either accepts it as-is or it goes to committee for compromise/resolution.
Yarrow
@Ivan X:ย Thank you for your thoughtful, honest comment.
cain
@Old Man Shadow:
We’ve ignored it because all the players involved are supplying our energy.
cain
@Adam L Silverman: Ah.. ok. Thanks for that insight.
HumboldtBlue
@Ivan X:ย โ
I understand completely.
John S.
@Geminid:
For the sake of Israelis, Palestinians and the rest of the world, I hope that after a brief period of solidarity, the Israelis will come to their senses and Bibi along with his fellow travelers will all get thrown out on their asses.
That would be highly preferable to this all playing out the way things played out here after 9/11.
Ivan X
@Yarrow: Sure. I appreciate your saying so.
Villago Delenda Est
The MSM itself is a huge part of the problem of the destruction of American polity.ย It has been since 1994 when they served as cheerleaders for Newt Gingrich.
cain
@Adam L Silverman: my fear now is that it will only escalate the attacks of settlers against Palestinians.
marklar
@Ivan X: Thank you, Ivan X for how you describe your thoughts (in your initial and follow-up comments) and reactions to the present situation.ย They pretty muchย summarize my thoughts as well.
It’s a shame that Israel doesn’t have the leadership to turn the current situation into progress. Visionary Israeli leadership would pause any retaliatory strikes and give the people of Gaza a timeline to deal with Hamas’ grip over their land and to return the hostages (note: Hamas’ control is very much an occupation in its own right…the claim that “they’re the legitimate elected representatives of their people” is pretty much the same as the claim that “Russian separatists are the legitimate elected representatives of those who voted in Eastern Ukraine.” It’s easy to be elected when opponents are jailed or murdered).
Unfortunately, this is fantastical thinking. The retributive ethos of Netanyahu and Israel’s current government preclude’s their ability to turn a crisis into an opportunity. This will get worse. Atrocities will be committed by both sides, giving authoritarians on both sides a sense of justified outrage fueling their attacks without concern for the lives of victims, while raining misery on those in Gaza (and the rest of occupied Palestine), and Israel who just want to live their lives.
Ivan X
@marklar: All too well said, alas. This is a terrible moment for Israel, given the leadership they have. I guess we can all hope it serves as a wake up call to their voters, but I don’t have enough insight into their domestic politics to sense whether there’s real hope for even functionally positive change, much less visionary.
Villago Delenda Est
@cain: They will be every bit as random and savage as Hamas has been.ย There are no good outcomes here.
Nettoyeur
@cain: Abba Eban famously said that the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. I think that the same can be said of Netanyahu et al. Personally, I expect Bibi to use this war to try to expel non assimilated Palestinians from Israel, period. This has always been the goal of the Israeli extreme right.
Princess
A friend near Beersheva was complaining vociferously several days ago about the forces being shifted to protect โJosephโsโ tomb so that story tragically checks out for me. Criminal negligence to coddle wackadoodle provocateurs and leave the south unprotected on such a flashpoint date, 50 years after the Yom Kippur war.
sab
@Princess: Yes.
raven
@Immanentize: Khe Sahn was a feint to keeps us tied down while the prepared for Set. Had they wanted to take the base all they had to do was poison the only water supply that ran right through it.
New Deal democrat
Just a thought . . . .
Everyone seems to assume Israel will crush Hamas, and so the analysis is all about โwhat does this mean for Israel, mainly politically.
But Hamas is not totally stupid. At some level they know this is not going to be 1948 in reverse. Israel is going to want to go thermonuclear (figuratively, not literally) in response.
So if I were a Hamas strategist, what would I advise to gain via this exercise?
One word: hostages. The more, the better.
We know that Israel will pay lavish ransomes to gain the release of captured soldiers. Suppose, instead one 1 soldier, I have 200 civilian and military hostages. Now I am in a bargaining position to obtain a different kind of ransom from Israel. Most importantly, โland for peace.โ
Iโm not saying it will shake out that way. I am just trying to think this through from Hamasโs point of view, under the condition that there was a rationale beyond โhurt Israel!โ for this obviously complex and thought-out attack.
raven
@trollhattan: Remember part of the strategy of Tet was to use the VC as shock troops that took the brunt of the assault. They were getting too big for their britches and it solved a couple of problems.
karen marie
Shocking that a people who have been harassed, murdered and terrorized,, their land occupied by foreigners for over 50 years would strike back.
Stop the illegal occupation or shut up.
Villago Delenda Est
@raven: Paid off for North Vietnam, big time.
Geminid
@John S.: Its a Parliamentary system, and like the UK’s Tories, Netanyahu is not required to call elections until the legal time limitation. The Tories have until January 2025, I think. Theoretically, Netanyahu has until 2027 but like I said, I expect his two ultra-Orthodox partners will desert him not too long after this war ends.
rivers
Thank you, Adam for providing so much information so quickly and for your insights. Also thank you toย @Ivan X and @HumboldtBlue for your respectful discussion with each other – it informed me.
Fair Economist
Like a lot of people here, I’m afraid this will be a rerun of 9/11 – a reprehensible act, permitted by incompetence in the war-monger party, which will be used to excuse even more reprehensible acts in return and bizarrely to increase the power of the precise people who failed to stop it.
marklar
@karen marie: “Stop the illegal occupation or shut up.”
A few questions:
1- What is the definition of “occupation”?ย Does it mean the territory conquered in 1967, or all of Israel?ย You’ll get very different responses from different people. For instance, Hamas defines it as the entire “Zionist entity.”
2- If Israel unilaterally withdraws from the occupied territories, and Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and others launch attacks on Israel to reclaim what they believe is all their land (including Tel Aviv), what would an acceptable Israeli response be?ย One hundred thousand rockets aimed at Tel Aviv will result in hundreds of thousands of casualties. Israel’s response would likely result in even more Palestinian casualties.ย Might it not be best to hammer our some details before setting such a possible outcome into action?
3- Any way to end this stalemate and avoid hundreds of thousands of casualties is a two-state solution with autonomy and security guarantees for both sides.ย Does either side have leadership that can work towards such a solution? Would such a leader even be able to survive attacks from their own people (e.g., Rabin)?
The Israeli-Palestinian problem is currently intractable because it is between two parties that BOTH have legitimate claims to the same land, two parties that BOTH have legitimate grievances resulting from demonization and inhumane actions of the other, and two parties that BOTH feel justified in the moral outrage, which can feed their militancy.
Placing the blame on one side (e.g., Stop the illegal occupation or shut up”) without placing shared blame on the other only serves to augment the sense of justification and outrage of one side, and grievance and outrage on the other. That will not lead to any resolution.
Getting the two parties to see their shared responsibility and destiny (well, that or genocide) is the only way forward.
Fair Economist
@New Deal democrat:
Fair point. And perhaps not that irrational even in view of likely failure, because the Palestinians have been denied any option to even maintain their occupied and miserable status quo, since the IDF is being actively deployed to support ongoing settlement expansion. If everything else is doomed to failure, a longshot is perhaps the best choice.
raven
@Villago Delenda Est: Yep, we’re the US Army, we’re 10-1!! (then)
Ivan X
@marklar: Thanks for this. Also very well said.
Dagaetch
@Ivan X: Thank you for this response. As a fellow American Jew who is horrified by current Israeli politics, but still reflexively finds myself defending the country (not the government!) on occasion, your explanation helps me understand why I do so. The idea of Israel as a place, a safe haven for a people who have rarely known one for the majority of known history, is one that a part of me still wants to believe in.
Ivan X
@Adam L Silverman, in the stomper thread above you someone was complaining about this one borking their iPhone and I think it’s because there’s no jump break. In case you want to add one.
Adam L Silverman
@New Deal democrat: Theyโve got at least double digits worth of them right now.
Adam L Silverman
@Geminid: Unless they can maintain the coalition without him, they will not ditch him. Heโs there only in into a governing coalition so they can achieve their theocratic and fascistic goals.
Adam L Silverman
@Nukular Biskits: I was only able to do this today because it happened on the weekend.
Adam L Silverman
@Ivan X: Iโm not home and away from my computer, but I think I was able to successfully do it via my iPad. Please take a look and let me know if it actually worked.
CarolPW
@Ivan X:ย โ
I don’t think more than two hours is a stomp.
Ivan X
@Adam L Silverman: Looks like it to me, I’ll check with whomever said it upstairs.
Ivan X
@CarolPW: I don’t either, but I also didn’t realize that long had passed. I also don’t really care about stomps, I was just trying to be cute.
Noskilz
I apologize if someone has already asked about this – I did skim through the comments and I may have missed it – but do you think there is any merit toย the notion this attack is designed to blow up the recent Saudi Arabia-Israel deal byย provoking a response that will make Israel politically radioactive in the Muslim world?
I’m a little puzzled at what the endgame for this is meant to be – clearly a great deal of thought, effort, and resources were put into this – but since the likely outcome is going to be a disproportionate number of dead Palestinian civilians, it’s kind of a weird flex.
Maybe the scuttling the deal theory just an effort to impose some kind of external logic on something being driven by local considerations, but it at least seems to make some sort of sense – albeit at dreadful cost to local civilians on both sides. And of course, there is no reason why something can’t have multiple reasons behindย it – there doesn’t just have to be a one thing driving it and a variety of players might be contributing to it for their own reasons.
Immanentize
@raven: I never heard that take before. Thank you! It makes more sense than other explanations. As Soprano2 says above, Tet was a big defeat for the VC and actually a large success for the USย and Saigon. The large body count of the VC makes complete sense in your version.
Also, never knew Khe Sanh was THAT vulnerable. Sheesh.
raven
@Immanentize: It all depends on how you look at it.
Adam L Silverman
@Noskilz: I do. The worst thing for the Palestinians in general, let alone Hamas and the other Palestinian extremist groups, is when Israel is able to cut a separate peace deal with an Arab and/or Muslim state. A deal with Saudi would also be bad for Hamas’s current patron Iran.
Another Scott
@Noskilz: I think at least part of the immediate “endgame” is the same as VVP’s in his claiming to have a working “nuclear powered cruise missile” and threatening to drop out of the nuclear test ban treaty – it’s to demand attention.ย To change the status-quo.ย And to demonstrate that their concerns must be taken seriously.
The date hearkening back to the 1973 war is probably instructive in the Hamas case (in which Sadat got Israel’s attention enough to have a durable peace treaty a few years later).
Was there another or a better way to get Bibi’s attention?ย Dunno.
Will it work?ย Dunno.
I will be watching to see how this affects the circus in the US House…
My $0.02.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
Been a busier Balloon Juice day than I’d planned on. I’m going offline for a bit.
Also, the Ukraine war update has posted.
Nukular Biskits
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam, I know I sound like a broken record but well done and thank you.
lowtechcyclist
@HumboldtBlue:
I’ve been wondering the same thing myself.ย For me, the first break from seeing Israel as the unequivocal, unquestioned Good Guys was 1978. Yes, 1978. The year of the Camp David accords, when Israel and Egypt signed a peace agreement.
That part was great, or so I thought at the time.ย But almost immediately after that, Israel started building settlements in the occupied territories.ย That stunned me. Instead of the Camp David accords being the first step to an overall peace in the region, it was ‘now that we don’t have to worry about Egypt anymore, we can do what we want in the West Bank.’
It’s been downhill since then. And their unwillingness to support Ukraine, even to give them defensive weapons like Iron Dome, amounts to ‘never again – to us.’ Which is how everyone feels – nobody wants themselves to be on the receiving end of genocide. So if it’s not part of some more overarching principle, it’s meaningless.
Gotta ask why the U.S. is giving them billions of dollars of assistance each year. What are we getting in return, other than Netanyahu thumbing his nose at us whenever he wants? When are we going to make use of the leverage that gives us, to get that shitheel to act responsibly if nothing else?
I’m totally fucking tired of the U.S. having to pretend that Israel is our friend. That’s bullshit.
I’m sorry that innocent people have been killed today. But it would be nice if we took more notice when Israelis were doing the killing.
Adam L Silverman
And there it is:
Machine translation:
Adam L Silverman
@Adam L Silverman:
db11
Thanks for this Adam โ I was hoping to see a response from you here, even if it adds to an already punishing Balloon Juice workload for you. (I also read/lurk your Ukraine war updates every night) You haven’t disappointed!
Having lived in Ashkelon for a year and a half in ’81-’82, my thoughts immediately go to my old friends still living there, and their families. I’m alsoย heartsick for the inevitable military response in Gaza โ which will likely have a disproportionate impact on the civilians living there, given the close quarters and insane population density.
We visited Gaza while I was there and even 40 years ago it was incredibly impoverished, crowded and chaotic. I can’t imagine what it must be like now after additional decades of right-wing Israeli domination and civil destruction.
I would also like to thank Ivan X for his thoughtful and insightful comments โ which largely echo my own thoughts/feelings, though as a non-Jew with personal ties to Israel โ as well as Marklar and Geminid for their useful contributions to the discussion.
Geminid
@lowtechcyclist: Israel built settlements in the West Bank before 1978. Some in the Jordan Valley were started right after the 1967 war. They marked what Israel determined would be its new defensive border. Settlements were built in the Golan heights for the same reason, after the 1973 war.
The pace of building in Gaza and the West Bank increased in the 1980s though.
Geminid
@Adam L Silverman: In the runup to the last election, when observers expected a 60-60 Knesset, there was speculation that the Haredi parties would jump to a coalition with Gantz as PM. That way they would protect their basic interests even if they could not pursue the maximalist goals you speak of.
We’ll never know because Netanyahu won an unexpected 64-56 majority. But I think they could still make that same deal.
lowtechcyclist
@Adam L Silverman:
The same Iron Dome system that Zelenskyy asked Netanyahu to share with Ukraine in 2021 and was rebuffed. And Binni hasn’t changed his mind since.
Go to hell, Binni.
Citizen Alan
@japa21:
This is EXACTLY like 9/11 and in a way that absolutely infuriates me.ย Once again, we see a corrupt and mendacious right wng government enable a horrific terrorist attack through its gross incompetence, only to be rewarded for it by both the nation and their own political rivals!
lowtechcyclist
@Geminid:ย โ
OK then, Begin initiated a new round of settlements almost immediately after the Camp David accords.
Subsole
@Geminid: Why wouldn’t they stick with him, though?
lowtechcyclist
@Citizen Alan:ย โ
This. We learned two decades ago that the infamous August 6, 2001 was something like the sixth in a string of increasingly loud warnings to Shrub by the U.S. intel community that Bin Laden was planning a terrorist attack against us. But Shrubby, Cheney, Rummy, and the gang were already deep into Iraq plans, and didn’t want to hear about it.
wjca
“We” being, in this case, the members of the US Congress.ย What they get, or at least think they get, is support from Jewish and evangelical Christian voters.ย What impact there might be when it comes to foreign policy isn’t really a consideration.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
You got love how “the only way we can solve this problem these fucked up has beens created is to let these very same fucked up has beens remain in power” is become the thing world wide.
Geminid
@Subsole: Because this disaster will destroy Netanyahu’s credibilty, and will make their National Religious party allies toxic. The Haredi parties may decide to quit this government before Likud members defect. They will be safer in a Gantz-led government than if they face elections as part of this one.
Subsole
@Geminid:
I see.
I know nothing of Israeli politics, so I assume a level of “rally ’round the flag” that may not be there.
Geminid
@Subsole: They’ll rally around the flag while this war is ongoing. There will be ceasefire at some point, though, mediated by Qatar or Egypt.* That’s when Netanyahu will be dragged through the mud by the opposition, as he deserves. No matter how and when this war ends, it is a shocking defeat for Israel, and events from here on out won’t change that.
Ed. This is not like the October war of 1973. Then Israel was surprised and lost ground and soldiers early. They recovered though, and beat the Egyptian and Syrian armies on the battlefield. They can’t do that with Gaza. It will be too costly to subjugate with ground forces. And Hamas won’t quit even if Israel bombs the whole place to rubble, which it won’t. Hamas’s leaders know what they have gotten into and have prepared themselves for the worst.
*Turkiye could also be an interlocutor between Israel and Hamas. Their Foreign Ministry statement was much more neutral than those of Arab countries, and said that Turkiye will do what it can to calm this situation.
Turkiye is host to some of Hamas’s leadership, but that hasn’t prevented Israel and Turkiye from patching up their formerly fractured relationship over the last 3 years. Israel badly needs mediation from someone Hamas trusts. Right now, that’s pretty much Qatar and Turkiye..
Miss Bianca
Adam, I’m reading rapidly and I still feel like I don’t understand all the significance of this event. I feel like I did when I was a kid 35 years ago, indexing the Guardian and learning about the first intifada. Practically dizzy with head-explodey reading.
ETA: Can’t help but feel sick with dread thinking about how much this looks like what would happen if Trump somehow (dear God!) got back into power.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Greatly appreciate the round up. I hope you wonโt have to do a daily thread on this war, as well, however long it lasts. Sadly, Inagtee w/ much of what you wrote, although I am not quite as certain that Bibi will survive for the reasons that Geminid mentioned, but I do think the surprise & surprisingly successful Hamas attack will bolster the fascists, reactionaries, & religious extremists in Israel, regardless.
Geminid
@YY_Sima Qian: I am curious: how has this war been covered by Chinese news sites?
YY_Sima Qian
@HumboldtBlue: It is a choice by Hamas to to slaughter civilians in close quarters, even if one excuses launching rockets at Israeli cities & settlements because they do not have access to anything better. It is a choice by Hamas to consistently advocate for the total destruction of Israel & annihilation of Jews, rather than just Palestinian nationhood. They could be fighting a war of national liberation w/o committing war crimes (or at least attempt to minimize the possibility), though histories of national liberation movements tend to be quite ugly.
Ivan X
@db11: And thank you for yours.
YY_Sima Qian
@Geminid: Not much, to my surprise. I was not aware until I saw Tweets from Shashank Joshua, who I follow, entirely out of context.
Too fresh, too distant, & the PRC tries not to make enemies of any party in the MENA region, so it tends to wait for the dust to settle before weighing in w/ some pablum. I suspect the language will ultimately be somewhat similar to what the Russian MFA has put out, but perhaps w/ a bit less cynicism.
As for popular opinions, both Israeli & the Palestinian causes have their supporters & detractors, but no views particularly well informed or strongly held. This is a massive hit on the credibility of Israeli security services, though, which has had an unassailable reputation among Chinese military enthusiasts since the 80s.
Vet
Israelโs Strategic Weaponization of Water Against Palestine is a War Crime
Statement by UN Human Rights High Commissioner on report on the Occupied Palestinian Territory 2023
“..2022 saw both the highest number of Palestinians killed by Israeli Security Forces in the past 17 years, and the highest number of Israelis killed since 2016. This death toll has further, and sharply, deteriorated in the first weeks of 2023, and in the month [March] that has just ended..”
For some reason this feels as much like ‘Zulu Dawn‘ as it does like Tet.
We all know intellectually that Israel is a systematically, aggressively, savagely Apartheid State.ย Very bad things happen in, and eventually to, fundamentally unsustainable Apartheid States. The Afrikaans government made all the same excuses and claimed all the same rights to continue savaging the people of their state in the name of self-defense… ironically, also starting in 1948.
I can’t help feeling that if the Palestinians were visibly of African descent, or otherwise clearly racially different from the Israeli forces government and civilians, this would not even be a debate.
Geminid
@Vet: “We all know….”?
You are speaking for yourself.
YY_Sima Qian
I donโt think we should underestimate the shrewd geopolitical calculations to Hamasโ attack, despite the predictably reprehensible execution. In one stroke, Hamas made the Palestinian cause relevant again in regional maneuvering, gained โstreet credโ approaching that of the Hezbullah, and has rendered Fatahโs position utterly untenable.
Prior to that, the regional dynamic was dominated by Sunni Arab statesโ rapprochement w/ Israel, w/ the Palestinian cause chucked to the side as part of the bargain. Now & I think for quite some time into the future, the likes of Saudi Arabia cannot afford to treat the Palestinians as an in convenient afterthought in normalization, lest they draw backlash from the โArab Streetโ & risk their own legitimacy, or allowing Iran to dominate the issue. Especially if the expected Israeli retaliation will produce the massive casualties in Gaza. The Saudi MFA just released a statement that SA has always emphasized justice for the Palestinians in any dealing w/ Israel. Suffice to say the normalization deal talks is on hold for the time being. (Given some of the conditions trialed in MSM, perhaps not a bad thing for the US). Normalization may still happen, but likely to be delayed, less official, & the Palestinian issue less likely to be ignored. W/ his earlier rapprochement w/ Iran, MBS has also created some space for different maneuvers.
At the same time, Fatah has been seen as ineffectual, passive & possibly complicit in the Israeli settlement program in the West Bank, successive Israeli governments have certainly relied upon its collaboration (tacit or explicit) to manage the Palestinian backlash against the steady settler encroachment into traditionally Palestinian areas, as well as the enforcement of the Apartheid-like regime. Given Hamasโ success, we may see it starting to challenge the Fatah in the WB, which will really cause nightmares among the Israeli security services.
As for managing the blowback from Israel, certainly taking dozens of hostages as human shields could temper the Israeli response somewhat. A prolonged ground offensive into the dense urban environs of Gaza will also likely to turn into a quagmire for the IDF, & an occupation exponentially so.
Logic suggests that, as Geminid said, an eventual ceasefire brokered by Sunni Arab states a couple of months down the line. However, the surprise attack has struck Israeli communities w/in Israel proper in ways not seen since 1948, & the coordinated assault from outside of Israeli borders is materially different than the terrorist campaign waged during the 2nd Intifada. I donโt see how Israel lets this go in just a couple of months, w/o massive bloodletting in Gaza. Why would Hamas agree to a ceasefire w/o some under the table Israeli concessions. It does not care about the suffering of the Gazans.
Geminid
Earlier today, from former Knesset Member Einat Wilf:
Ms. Wilf worked on Prime Minister Rabin’s team that negotiated the Oslo Accords. She taught a graduate course at Georgetown last Fall, and is author of The War of Return, her history and analysis of the Israeli/Palestinianย conflict.
Vet
@Geminid:
See modifier “intellectually”, per above. That assertion is incorrect.
YY_Sima Qian
There is a video on YT of Hamas fighters taking out an IDF Merkava IV main battle tank, using a cheap consumer drone to dropping a small mortar bomb from top, something we have seen plenty Ukraine, & before that by ISIS in Mosul. The Merkava IV is supposed to be one of the best protected tanks in the world, & this particular example had the Arena active defense system, w/ 4 AESA radars at the corners to detect incoming fire. This has happened out in the open, in one of the IDF bases that was overrun, & the tank had lost its infantry support. A sign of the difficulties the IDF might face in the built areas in Gaza. The crew did survive & was taken prisoner.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Gaza is going to be an urban warfare nightmare if they send ground forces in en masse.
Geminid
@Vet: I saw the modifier. It cuts no ice with me.
Vet
@Geminid:
Ice notwithstanding, in contravention you may find:
Amnesty International:
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/campaigns/2022/02/israels-system-of-apartheid/
The United Nations Human Rights Council:
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/03/1114702
A former head of Mossad:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/former-mossad-chief-israel-enforcing-apartheid-system-west-102957888
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/06/israel-imposing-apartheid-on-palestinians-says-former-mossad-chief
Human Rights Watch:
https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution
the Israeli Human Rights group B’tselem:
https://www.btselem.org/publications/fulltext/202101_this_is_apartheid
and of course the post-Afrikaner government of South Africa:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/26/south-africa-calls-for-israels-proscription-as-apartheid-state
and the Archbishop of the post-Afrikaner South African Anglican Church:
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/anglican-church-south-africa-classify-israel-apartheid-state
Adam L Silverman
@Vet: Next time use the insert link button rather than all the naked links. I’m not fishing the next one of these out of moderation.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: Yes, more videos have surfaced of Hamas fighters disabling IDF main battle tanks and heavy infantry fighting vehicles (probably the heaviest & best protected in the world) using RPGs w/ modern tandem warheads, striking from the sides or the rear, then closing in to finish the job w/ grenades. This is still fighting in the relatively open terrain near the border (probably on the Israeli side). Israeli armor used to be unassailable presence against Palestinian militants.
Heavy armor w/o sufficient infantry support will not survive on the modern battlefield, even against sub/proto-state actors employing small teams of light infantry (albeit well organized and motivated ones). This is definitely not Iraq/Afghanistan/southern Lebanon experience, any more.