(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Housekeeping note:

1) Tonight’s update is going to be brief. I have had a ton of stuff to do all day that has kept me offline. I’ve prepped most of what you’re going to read before I headed out for the day and just cut President Zelenskyy’s address in right before posting.

2) Last night I had to ban someone for going way off the rails in the comments to the war update. This was after I politely asked them to dial it back a bit. When they then decided to turn it up, I made the call. I also immediately let Cole know. Tomorrow AM my schedule should finally clear enough to do something of an Israel-Hamas war update. But I just want to make a couple of things clear right now. First, there are no winners among the Palestinians from Hamas’s attack last Saturday, nor will there be any winners among Israelis from Israel’s response. I’ll get into this more tomorrow, but for all intents and purposes Hamas’s attack was a PSYACT. A PSYACT is a form of psychological operation often using a physical real world activity intended to produce a real world result or elicit a specific real world response. If you remember back to my post after the 2015 ISIS attack on St. Michael outside Paris, the intention of the attack wasn’t just to kill and main and injure and terrify a lot of people. Rather it was to make the French and their western allies overreact in their response creating a French versus Muslims and Islam response. At the same time it was intended to force French Muslims to choose between being French or being Muslim. To collapse the civic space and force them to pick a side. Hamas’s attack was similarly intended even if the initial and most visible effects were the killing and the hostage taking. And this is part of the reason that there will be no actual Palestinian or Israeli winners regardless how this ultimately resolves.

Second, we need to make sure we do not conflate all Israelis with the Netanyahu governments that have run the country for 13 of the last 15 years, just as we must do the same thing in separating the Gazans from Hamas. Remember, back in 2010 Bibi stole the premiership. Likud came in 2nd in those elections. However, while Tzipi Livni, whose party had the largest number of members of Knesset elected, was assembling her coalition, Bibi simply ignored Israeli law, assembled his own, declared a government, and dared anyone to stop him or reverse his action. No one did. From there the opposition kept splintering while Bibi enabled and empowered ever more extreme elements to form coalition governments from what was often the barest of majorities all while running caretaker governments when they splintered and fell apart. At the same time, because of a stupid decision by the Bush 43 administration convinced that elections equal democracy, enabled by Bibi who wanted to build up Hamas as a foil to Fatah and the Palestine Authority in order to prevent a 2 state peace process from ever being implemented, Hamas won the only election in Gaza in 2006. There has never been another election. And yes, technically both Israelis and Palestinians could’ve revolted and overthrown Bibi or Hamas respectively. But actually doing it is a lot harder said than done.

Third, we need to make sure not to conflate Jews and Israelis and Judaism with Zionism, as well as Palestinians with Hamas and Hamas with Islam. These are not interchangeable concepts. Do not make them so.

More, hopefully, tomorrow.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

x

As terror is spreading, it is important for the world to give an unambiguous signal that protection against terror will not falter anywhere – address by the President of Ukraine

14 October 2023 – 20:07

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

This week is coming to an end, the week of air defense for Ukraine, the week of reinforcement. This is a key priority before winter.

And it’s time to thank our partners for their new decisions on support. This week’s decisions.

The Netherlands – talks with Mark Rutte in Odesa, the decision on additional Patriot missiles, support for our ground operations and sea export corridors. There is also a defense package that was announced at Ramstein. Thank you very much!

There are packages from Spain, packages from Britain. Norway, Finland – thank you. Germany. A joint defense package from the Czech Republic and our friends from Denmark. I thank all the leaders for fulfilling our agreements!

Along with additional missiles for air defense, there will be new launching stations – we are working on different types of systems. There will be spare parts for the systems that Ukraine already uses. Of course, there will also be artillery – shells, first of all. Drones. Armored vehicles. All the leaders who help us are fully informed about the current situation on the battlefield. The world understands what Russia is preparing for and what terrorist moves it may be planning. We also know how to respond to the occupier. And we will respond in a powerful way.

Before the Ramstein meeting in Brussels, I had a good, much-needed meeting with Secretary Austin and the new head of the U.S. military, General Brown. There was a clear confirmation of support for Ukraine, a clear willingness to intensify our actions together and continue to put pressure on the occupier both in the fall and winter. And by the way, the United States announced at Ramstein that it will co-chair the F-16 coalition with the Netherlands and Denmark. This is an important decision, thank you very much!

We had excellent talks with the Belgian government. We are grateful to Belgium for joining our F-16 coalition and for its leadership in the use of frozen Russian assets. This is a truly necessary step – Belgium became the first country to send funds generated by Russian assets to Ukraine. We are working with other EU countries and the rest of the world to ensure that they use the aggressor’s funds in the fair way – to defend against aggression.

I would like to make a special mention of the conference in Croatia that took place this week – on humanitarian demining. Almost a third of our territory is under threat from mines and unexploded ordnance. Obviously, we need global support to clear our land of Russian mines. And now in Croatia, there were more than 40 countries and international organizations participating in a conference on this very issue. There are new decisions on support for demining. I am grateful to every country that joined!

As terror is spreading across the globe, it is important for the world to give an unambiguous signal that protection against terror will not falter anywhere.

Of course, our warriors. In all areas where it is particularly hot right now. Avdiivka, Maryinka and other key locations in Donetsk region. Klishchiivka, Kurdiumivka, Andriivka. Staromayorske. Of course, Kupyansk direction. Zaporizhzhia region – Orikhiv, Robotyne, Verbove, Novoprokopivka. I thank everyone who is holding their positions and destroying Russian troops. Every day of these battles is lives. Lives that are sacrificed for the sake of our country. And this is the life of the whole of Ukraine, which is being saved every day, every night by every successful battle. It is so important!

Glory to you, warriors! Glory to our people! And thank you to everyone in the world who helps us!

Glory to Ukraine!

The Financial Times has confirmed that the DPRK has supplied the Russians with munitions.

National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby said Friday that North Korea has delivered arms to Russia for its war in Ukraine

“In recent weeks North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions.” https://t.co/4VfORlIniS pic.twitter.com/AhwIc0IzPs

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 14, 2023

The US has information that North Korea has delivered arms to Russia for use in Ukraine, National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby said.

“In recent weeks North Korea has provided Russia with more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions,” Kirby told reporters on Friday. The US released imagery showing the movement of the containers from North Korea into Russia by ship.

The US is also concerned about Russian assistance to North Korea, he said. North Korea is seeking fighter aircraft and surface to air missiles, as well as other materials and advanced technologies, among other things.

They are observing whether Moscow will provide this assistance and have seen Russian ships offloading containers in North Korea which “may constitute the initial deliveries of materiel from Russia”, he said.

The US would enforce existing sanctions and impose new ones to target this relationship, Kirby said.

Kyiv:

Kyiv today. Sometimes, it takes time to understand who your friends and enemies are. However, in critical situations, your mind becomes very clear pic.twitter.com/sNJyD98Jzm

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 14, 2023

The hottest part of the theater still seems to be at Avdiivka:

After days of intense combat in Avdiivka, I've decided to make a preliminary analysis of the ongoing events. I'm looking at the bigger picture, aiming to spot key patterns and notable signs that can help us understand the situation better. This analysis will cover both the… pic.twitter.com/jXmGblcbMZ

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) October 14, 2023

After days of intense combat in Avdiivka, I’ve decided to make a preliminary analysis of the ongoing events. I’m looking at the bigger picture, aiming to spot key patterns and notable signs that can help us understand the situation better. This analysis will cover both the upsides and downsides based on the limited data on hand.

The scale of the Russian assault on Avdiivka underscores their determination to achieve their objectives. Russians have deployed what I’ve identified as at least two mechanized battalions or two battalion-tactical groups in the primary attack directions, alongside smaller units in other areas, constituting an operation of approximately regimental size. This represents a significant departure from the smaller company and platoon-sized tactical groups that both sides have employed in recent months.

Based on information from various sources, it appears that the Russians have deployed a substantial number of units, potentially constituting a force of at least a few brigades. However, the exact total number is difficult to accurately assess at this time.

One group advanced from the South-West of Avdiivka, while another attempted to advance from the North-Eastern side of Avdiivka. The group originating from Krasnohorivka initially made progress, overrunning defensive positions in the North, with some elements even reaching the railroad. Both groups suffered losses, but the northern group achieved tangible results, primarily due to the element of surprise and the concentrated firepower of a mechanized force.

Positive Aspects:

– A conservative estimate from our team, based on visual evidence, indicates that Russian forces lost a minimum of 45 vehicles, predominantly tanks and IFVs, by the morning of October 12th. The actual number is likely higher, as we lacked visuals from some areas, especially the South and South-Western regions of Avdiivka.

– The initial Russian assault did not seem to achieve the desired results of securing areas beyond the railroad in the north and seizing Sieverne and Tonenke in the south, which would significantly impact the operational environment for Ukraine.

– This operation appears to be primarily politically motivated rather than militarily necessary. Following the loss of Pisky and most of Mariinka, Avdiivka remains the only sizable settlement under Ukrainian control in close proximity to Donetsk. However, given the realities of warfare, it is unlikely that Ukraine will launch a ground offensive into Donetsk from this location in the near future. Avdiivka is well-fortified, and the Russians have suffered significant losses in multiple attempts to capture it since 2022. The Russian motivation appears to be securing a substantial public victory before winter, in contrast to the limited successes of the Ukrainian army in liberating territories in 2023 and the loss of Bakhmut.

– Despite the initial challenges and the element of surprise, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground demonstrated remarkable resilience and managed to halt the progress of the mechanized enemy groups. This achievement can be attributed to individual acts of heroism, skill, and determination to hold their positions.

– From a combination of sources, including photographs, drone videos, and personal accounts, Russian mechanized units have incurred significant losses as a result of Ukrainian drones, which have been supplied by volunteers and regular citizens, properly set mines, timely deployed AT teams, and artillery fire.

Negative Aspects:

– Despite prior knowledge of the enemy’s buildup for an offensive operation, the attack still caught Ukrainian forces off guard, and it appears that some areas were ill-prepared for such an assault, revealing some vulnerabilities.

– The Russians executed a regiment-sized operation by deploying several battalions and smaller auxiliary forces. This demonstrates their capacity to conduct larger-scale operations and access to sufficient resources.

– They managed to penetrate the rear and flank areas of Avdiivka. While this does not necessarily guarantee an immediate encirclement, it presents a perilous situation and an unwelcome development. The Bakhmut operation also began with substantial and seemingly unsustainable losses for the Russians, but after securing control over the flanks, the situation deteriorated for Ukrainian forces. While the operational context is different, we cannot yet assert that the situation is stable.

– While the focus is on Russian losses, the fact that they were able to break through and seize some Ukrainian positions in the north and south suggests that Ukrainian forces likely incurred losses. Unlike easily trackable vehicle losses, assessing human casualties is more challenging

Conclusions:

The enemy is actively seeking to shift the strategic initiative and mold public perception to their advantage. This determination is evident in their efforts to secure Avdiivka and the Kharkiv region. Their goal is likely to achieve victories that could potentially offset or negate the gains made by the Ukrainian army in the South during the summer and fall of 2023. The intended message is clear: “Regardless of the aid provided to Ukraine, Russia will continue to advance and achieve victories”. The gravity of this intent is highlighted by the scale and commitment displayed in this offensive.

I advise you to stay cautious when assessing the overall situation. The Russians appear to be concentrating significant forces in the Avdiivka area, potentially involving more vehicles and personnel than they have already lost, indicating their capability for further advances. Independent observers can verify this by noting that the battle has persisted non-stop for the fourth day, marked by ongoing company-sized (at least) assaults.

The scale of enemy losses has been significant, but keep in mind that this doesn’t necessarily preclude them from achieving their objectives. In the eyes of their leadership, the potential gains from this massive assault operation far outweigh the value of the vehicles and human resources expended. This pattern of prioritizing strategic and operational goals over immediate losses has been a consistent historical feature of the Russian and Soviet armies.

The future success of these efforts is likely dependent on the availability of reserves on both sides and the willingness to commit additional forces to this operation.

 

Repelling Russian attacks on Avdiivka. Video by the 110th brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/kUsIRpqpVK pic.twitter.com/H9qnEkAzuL

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 14, 2023

Avdiivka

➡️Fighting occurs east of Terrikon and the railway tracks. No improvements.
➡️Russians have possibly come closer to Sjeverne, but this needs further visual confirmation.https://t.co/cNI9gz1uKw

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 14, 2023

Avdiivka offensive: their mood (not so good).https://t.co/WqzgFUj53t pic.twitter.com/nEGTxaqamH

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023

Machine translation from the Telegram link in the tweet:

Along Avdeevka. A large-scale offensive (by the standards of last year) launched simultaneously in the northern and southern directions from Avdievka has so far brought rather limited tactical results. From what is known, in the south we managed to advance to the outskirts of Severny, and in the north we reached the waste heap and railway in front of Stepov. Many would like to hear specific accusations, but the reason for heavy losses and long battles is not only the familiar “Muradovism”, but mainly the terrain in which one has to operate and the preparedness of the enemy’s defensive positions. The attack directions are open mined fields, separated from each other by landings with trenches, strongholds and anti-tank crews of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the same time, the objective lack of firepower, their weak concentration and interaction with each other, multiplied by the length and fortification of the enemy’s positions, does not allow completely isolating the combat area from the approach of reserves and suppressing enemy fire. At the moment, the RF Armed Forces find themselves in a situation similar to the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Zaporozhye. Driving in convoys is a necessary measure in conditions of continuous minefields, and every meter traveled comes with great effort and a high price. And if in Zaporozhye the Armed Forces of Ukraine took villages several hundred meters to a kilometer long with one-story buildings one by one for several weeks and months, then Avdeevka is a 10-kilometer city with a multi-story district and several industrial zones. By the way, once again those who like to announce in advance about completed encirclements, cauldrons, deep breakthroughs and resounding victories have done a disservice to everyone. Military Informant

 

A rather interesting breakdown of the Avdiivka operation from a Russian source. Long read, but useful for a layman like myself.
It's conclusions essentially come down to: the operation was well-prepared in advance, and caught Ukrainians off guard, but bogged down to Bakhmut pace… pic.twitter.com/FJnV4Knvym

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023

Machine translation from the Telegram link in the tweet:

Game in Civilization
#War
#Ukraine
#Operations

To try to surround Avdeevka. So first remember previously made forecast, quote:

Local, very limited in tasks attacks occur with the aim of occupying more favorable defensive lines where this makes sense. They did not start yesterday, and from time to time they will occur, perhaps even somewhere they will lead to some small success, for example, some height will be recaptured from the enemy.
The joyful of this is only that there are shells for artillery.
These actions do not have operational value.

Now that the Ukrainian offensive has virtually completely fizzled out, it is important to understand this – as soon as we try to attack ourselves, all the laws of the positional impasse will turn against us.

And now we look at Avdeevka. How did the Russian command distinguish itself there? In order:

1. The enemy was outmaneuvered with the concentration of troops, the attack was so sudden that on the first day all observers noted very weak artillery fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

2. Thorough reconnaissance – for example, a number of commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the preparation of the offensive, strikes were carried out on the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which were successful, and this did not lead to the discovery of the plans of the Russian command.
3. To accelerate the breakthrough of Russian units through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stockpiles of high-precision weapons of the same LMUR were created, and the interaction of ground units with helicopters was worked out. Also, for the accelerated breakthrough of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian troops massively use incendiary ammunition, with all the consequences for the Armed Forces.
That is, we are dealing with a pre-prepared attack, carefully planned, for which stockpiles of material and technical equipment, including high-precision weapons, were carried out, a set of intelligence measures was carried out, offensive groups of ground forces were secretly prepared for nomination, a serious outfit of attack aircraft forces was allocated.
At the same time, it was possible to achieve surprise.

So what? After the first weddings, the AFU was transferred to the site of the breakthrough of reinforcements, including artillery, and our weddings of the first hours were bought. Now the advance of the Russian troops has slipped to the Bakhmouth pace – tens of meters per day at best, the enemy goes into a counterattack.
This is what a positional dead end looks like.
And this was written more than once on the channel.
What did the Russian army not overpower from what is needed at the tactical level for a successful breakthrough within a reasonable time?
The first is the isolation of the war zone. It is clear that some actions in this direction were taken, but the Armed Forces were able to transfer the necessary reserves to the Avdeevka area.
It is important that if ours transfer more troops to this site, then the Armed Forces will do the same. And then again, and again, such a “human trade” has no limits.
The second is the counter-battery struggle. Everything here is currently more difficult than is customary to think, we will not disclose the topic, we simply indicate the fact – KBB is not effective enough.
And this was enough to slow down the compression of Russian “sticks” to an acceptable slow for the Armed Forces.
Can the operation around Avdeevka end in success?
It depends on what is considered as such. Theoretically, having rested, and having suffered heavy losses, you can cut off this ledge, at least, finally would make life easier for people in Donetsk, and at least one of the voiced tasks of the SVO would be partially completed.
But quickly cut off the ledge held by the Armed Forces, so that they could not leave and lose troops in this area would not work, and this is already obvious.
The Russian army will have to change beyond recognition if the country’s leadership wants to end this war with a significant victory, and at least with a stretch it could be called reasonable.
Otherwise, we are doomed to multi-month meat grinders for each area and each village on the way.
This is a positional war.
In our current state, we will not be able to overcome it.
Telegram
Game in Civilization
#War
#Ukraine
#Operations

Once again about the possibility of a Russian offensive. And this is precisely what. What’s happening? Local, very limited-purpose attacks occur with the aim of occupying more favorable defensive lines where this makes sense. They are…

And for you logistics enthusiasts, here’s some Avdiivka related logistics material for you:

#RussianArtilleryShellFunnel #1PageAssessUKRWar
A call for data…

Interesting post by @wartranslated today… a mention of problems of Russian barrel wear. It has got to be severe at this point – especially given Russian's don't do that maintenance or logistics thing.

I did… https://t.co/YslSLnS6TU pic.twitter.com/Eqzh4yiXKp

— HerrDr8 (@HerrDr8) October 13, 2023

#RussianArtilleryShellFunnel #1PageAssessUKRWar
A call for data…

Interesting post by @wartranslated today… a mention of problems of Russian barrel wear. It has got to be severe at this point – especially given Russian’s don’t do that maintenance or logistics thing.

I did some analysis on Russian artillery shell challenges (chart left)…and the staggering Russian artillery loss rate since the counteroffensive began – and the #Avdiika debacle spike (chart top right)…and the Ukrainian artillery platform/counterbattery/drone advantage (chart lower right).

What I haven’t done, is an analytical thread on Russian barrel wear…I need some hard data.

Anyone in #OSINTGuild224 have that? Or anyone else?

Kreminna:

KREMINNA AXIS /1325 UTC OCT 14/ UKR breaks up five additional RU attacks on Makiivka. RU airstrikes hit Nevske, Bilohorivka, Novoliubivka, & Serebryansk forestry. pic.twitter.com/yXv1WrLZQI

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) October 14, 2023

Robotyne:

And yes, the counter-offensive hasn't gone anywhere. Russians report about relentless attacks in Robotyne area on a daily basis with smart rotation of troops by Ukrainians. Some movement was reported towards Kopany (west of Robotyne rather than east, towards Verbove).

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023

Full text of the first tweet:

Ukrainian forces are utilising helicopters in the Robotyne area of the counter-offensive. This puzzles the Russians:

“News from the Zaporozhye Front, Robotyne area:

Helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces flew freely, where did they come from? I don’t know, but they were noticed in Robotyne, they flew to the west, towards Kopan, they fired. And they went north.”

It is clear that enemy helicopters are flying at extremely low altitudes, which means that the command will have to think about what means of destruction to bring to the forefront of our defense.

This is the second documented case of such a maneuver by the Ukrainian Armed Forces recently.”

Verbove, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

The density of the mined territory in the area of ​​Verbove, Zaporizhzhia direction. Photo from a Russian drone.https://t.co/jGegfuO21T pic.twitter.com/yeTFwMb5gz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 14, 2023

Sochi, Russia:

Source: https://t.co/FxktTpw8hs

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023

GSLDBs should soon be on their way to Ukraine.

Boeing/Saab is on track to supply Ukraine with GLSDB long-range bombs.

"We are on track to deliver the first GLSDB and a new launcher to the Ukrainian military," a company official said. Ukraine is expected to receive them somewhere in autumn. https://t.co/eOXXqui1mn

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) October 13, 2023

And now it’s a Balloon Juice food post. Gets emergency tiara and frilly apron…

Awesome video about the cooks of the Ukrainian 47th Brigade. pic.twitter.com/fDo7MtAxbE

— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 14, 2023

That’s enough for today!

Your daily Patron!

I want to thank the Japanese people for their help. The Japanese people gave us so much equipment! I also thank all the countries that allocated funds and equipment for demining Ukraine. In the photo, I personally thank the Ambassador of Japan, Matsuda Kuninori ☺️ @JPEmbUA pic.twitter.com/oCdV6KXZhd

— Patron (@PatronDsns) October 14, 2023

There’s a new slide show at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.

Open thread!