(Image by NEIVANMADE)
The House GOP is out with it’s supplemental aid package. It is only for Israel, there is no mention of Ukraine.
So the House GOP just put out their aid package for Israel. They took away all aid to Ukraine. Their bill gives $14.3 billion to Israel but takes away $14.3 billion in cuts to the IRS from the Inflation Reduction Act. So the cost of helping Israel is to also help rich tax cheats.
— Mindy Fischer Writer (@mindys4Biden) October 30, 2023
Senate Democrats are not amused; especially by the cuts to IRS funding. Well, all the Senate Democrats except one:
Lot of Senate Dem pushback tonight to House GOP plan to rescind IRS funding in $14.3B Israel aid package, making clear it doesn’t have a real path to 60 votes. Manchin says “I don’t have a problem” with the IRS cuts. But also says “it’s a mistake” to separate Israel from Ukraine
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) October 30, 2023
Hey Cole, come get your village idiot. He’s loose again!
What about the next Ukraine aid supplemental you ask? According to Speaker Johnson there will not be one because aid to Ukraine is not an urgent need:
New Republican House speaker appears to suggest Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine including missile & drone attacks across the country targeting civilian infrastructure & brutal repression in occupied territories doesn’t constitute an “urgent need.” Doesn’t bode well for Kyiv. https://t.co/KheGDrcNFH
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 30, 2023
Just a quick update on the airport pogrom in Dagestan. The Israeli government has indicated that the flight, which was ultimately destined to go on to Moscow, was actually carrying Dagestani children who had gone to Israel for medical treatment that is not available in Russia. The Times of Israel has the details:
“There were hundreds at the [Makhachkala] airport. About 50 men approached the airplane and asked passengers if they were Jews. I said no. I’m Russian. They wanted to see my passport. I had a Russian passport. They hung around there and then pulled back at a certain point,” one eyewitness said in a recording obtained by Carmel News, a Telegram channel that focuses on Russia and Ukraine.
None of the passengers were hurt in the incident, according to Alex Bendersky, a Russian-speaking Israeli who covered the event on Carmel News.
According to an unconfirmed report by Carmel News, aboard the plane were Dagestani children who had undergone medical treatment in Israel.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We all must be strong, united, we must withstand to prove that freedom is indeed stronger than aggression – President of Ukraine’s address
30 October 2023 – 21:09
I wish good health to all Ukrainian men and women!
First and foremost, I want to acknowledge our combat brigades. All the warriors who are fighting at the hottest sections of the front lines. Thank you to all the warriors who, through their assaults and their resilience – heroic resilience – demonstrate in practice that Ukraine is capable of resisting Russian pressure, capable of defeating the occupiers, capable of winning.
The 53rd and 110th separate mechanized brigades, the 79th separate airborne assault brigade. Thank you, guys, for Avdiyivka and Maryinka! The 14th, 32nd, and 57th separate motorized infantry brigades – thank you for defending the Kupiansk direction. The 80th separate airborne assault brigade and the 93rd separate mechanized brigade – thank you, warriors, for the Bahmut direction, for advancing! The 33rd separate mechanized brigade – thank you for your strength in battles in the south of Ukraine!
Today, I had important negotiations with Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte. I informed him about the situation on the front lines, about our actions, our capabilities. I am grateful for the assistance! For air defense systems, for ammunition for our soldiers, for powerful things that help us maintain the security of the eastern part of the Black Sea. Our agreements with Mark, which we discussed during the meeting in Odesa, are being implemented. It is also very important that the Netherlands has become the first state outside the G7 with which we started bilateral work on security guarantees. We discussed with the Prime Minister the results of the advisors’ meeting on the Peace Formula in Malta.
I met with a delegation from the U.S. Congress – three congressmen who are currently visiting Ukraine. It’s an important visit of solidarity. I’m grateful to everyone in Congress – from both parties – who helps defend freedom, to President Biden, his team, and every American who understands that freedom in the world can only stand when America is strong, and when there is no doubt among the enemies of the free world about American leadership. I informed the congressmen about the situation on the front lines, the very successful use of U.S. ATACMS recently provided to our defense forces. Of course, we also discussed the issue of military and budgetary support.
Today, I also held several important meetings regarding our future international steps. A wrap-up meeting regarding the advisors’ meeting in Malta and future plans regarding the Peace Formula. A meeting on the expected assessment from the European Commission regarding our progress in European integration. And also a meeting regarding our strategy to keep the world’s attention on Ukraine, to support the unity that helps us defend ourselves and ensure the systematic weakening of the aggressor state.
We must soberly assess the Russian system. They have mobilized all their forces to try not to lose what they seized in Ukraine, but in doing so, they have contaminated their own territory with such a level of hatred and degradation that, for the second time this year, Russia is losing control over events. We see that mutineers are heading to Moscow, and no one is stopping them. We see that the power vertical in Dagestan is evaporating, leading to a real upheaval. These are all signals that Russia can, for now, sustain military operations and increase pressure on the frontlines in some places but is unable to withstand this strategic confrontation.
Strategically, we all must be strong, we must be united, and we must do everything possible and impossible to withstand, to reclaim what is ours, and to prove that freedom is indeed stronger than hatred and aggression. For this, our unity is needed, unity between us, unity across all of Europe, unity in America, and unity throughout the free world… Unity is the most effective, precise, and long-range weapon.
I thank everyone who is helping! I thank each and every one who is fighting and working for the sake of Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Was pleased to meet in Kyiv with a delegation of members of the #US Congress representing both the Democratic and Republican parties, @RepFrenchHill, @RepMikeQuigley, and @RepStephenLynch.
Adoption of NATO standards, improving procurement procedures for the army, and… pic.twitter.com/jTe2VL7QKx— Rustem Umerov (@rustem_umerov) October 30, 2023
Was pleased to meet in Kyiv with a delegation of members of the #US Congress representing both the Democratic and Republican parties, @RepFrenchHill, @RepMikeQuigley, and @RepStephenLynch.
Adoption of NATO standards, improving procurement procedures for the army, and localization of weapons production in Ukraine are priorities for the ministry’s team.
Briefed the members of the US Congress on the situation on the front lines, our urgent military needs.
The cost:
Hi, @_juicefighter_ .
It was time for me to visit you. pic.twitter.com/ZegJglvRAL— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 30, 2023
Love this.
This is so about him. pic.twitter.com/SzejBPdDse— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 30, 2023
Da Vinci and Juice now rest in peace next to each other in a truly awesome place of Kyiv, in the ancient hills by the Dnipro River.
Please make sure to pay respects to the guys as you come to our city: https://t.co/NBsKhmmhEV pic.twitter.com/RvyMeFHJAP— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 30, 2023
Lviv:
Also, the cost:
The New York Times has taken a deep dive into three childhood friends from Lviv who went to war together. Here are some excerpts:
At a gas station in western Ukraine, three men in their late 20s, friends since childhood, slid into plastic chairs. Exhausted and anxious, they began to sing.
It was March 2022, three weeks after Russian forces invaded, and the men were on their way to war. “Let It Be Cold and Windy” was an old folk tune about weathering adversity that they had sung as boys in a Ukrainian scouts group. Somehow, it brightened the mood.
“In grief and trouble, and the sea of darkness,” they sang, “I will shield you from misfortune with a cloak.”
Their names were Artem, Dmytro and Roman. They had met as boys in the scouts group called Plast, in the western city of Lviv, and forged bonds over mountain hikes, sunburns, scratched knees and bug bites.
Later, boyhood games gave way to college and girlfriends and nights out in Lviv.
Artem Dymyd was a traveler. Addicted to adventure, he was never without his parachute as he sky-dived and base-jumped around the world. Friends called him “Kurka,” Ukrainian for chicken, because of the mop of curly hair he styled into a mohawk as a youth. The nickname stuck. When he got older and led a troop of younger scouts, they called themselves “the eggs.”
Dmytro Paschuk left college to join the French Legion, looking for adventure and a steady income, then came home to open a wine bar in Lviv. He was an entrepreneur full of big ideas. But he was also deeply invested in seeing his small home village near the city thrive, and hoped to start a small farm there.
Roman Lozynskyi studied political science in Lviv and got into local politics before spending time as an intern in the Canadian Parliament. He was elected to the Ukrainian Parliament in 2019, and had started to split his time between Kyiv, the capital, and Lviv.
None of them were really sure of the exact moment they met. In some ways, it felt like they were simply always together.
“Artem, Dmytro and I were like three sides of the horizon: south, west and east,” Roman said. Their interests and personalities were very different, but, “Boom!” he said, describing how they had become fast friends.
Now war had reunited them. After the invasion, all three volunteered to fight for Ukraine. They had just returned from weeks in a military training camp and were on their way to Lviv to collect drones, radios, food and other gear donated to the unit they would serve in together.
If they were friends before, Dmytro later said, the war would soon make them brothers.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Artem was traveling around Brazil, parachute in hand, seeking out places to base jump. He boarded a flight home when he heard the news. He had volunteered for the military in 2014 and fought in the east against Russia-backed separatists, so he quickly rejoined.
Roman was in Kyiv. He had volunteered as a reservist weeks earlier as the possibility of war became more real. He made plans to head to a military training base in central Ukraine, and called Dmytro, who was in Lviv running his wine bar and other businesses.
Dmytro had also decided to volunteer and was already on his way to the same facility, after talking to Artem about the best place to go for training.
Within days, the three men met at the base in central Ukraine to sign contracts and start training. And three lives that had diverged since their days in the scouts came colliding back together.
Soon, they were headed east as part of a specialist operations unit.
They found purpose and solidarity in their missions and a deep desire to seize back control of Ukraine and end the devastation of indiscriminate attacks on civilians. And they were driven by their shared vision of their country’s future — of a full-fledged democracy free from Russian interference.
There was comfort but also fear in serving together, Roman explained, especially after perilous missions in the spring of 2022, when their unit was focused on operations behind enemy lines.
“We really understood how high the risk was to lose someone from our team,” Roman said. But Roman took solace from the fact that Artem and Dmytro had previous military experience.
They had close calls, including once when their camp was hit by shelling in the first weeks of the war.
“We talked a lot about death,” Roman said. “And then, it happened.”
In the fourth month of the war, the three friends were deployed near the small village of Bila Krynytsya in Ukraine’s south. Fighting had been fierce along the banks of the Inhulets River, which served as a front line between Russian and Ukrainian troops.
On the night of June 18, Dmytro and Artem were asleep in their camp — Roman was on a mission in a different village — when a Russian shell came hurtling toward them. The explosion rattled Dmytro from sleep. He heard screams and instinctively searched for his friend.
“I couldn’t find Kurka,” he said, using Artem’s nickname.
Artem’s injuries were devastating. Shrapnel had ripped into his body. Another friend from the scouts, Vitya Kolya, who was a medic in the same unit, tried to treat Artem as they loaded him into the back of a pickup truck. Dmytro was at the wheel and sped to a field hospital. Artem managed a final few words: “I am alive.”
“For a minute, I couldn’t move at all, as if I forgot who I was or where I was,” Dmytro said.
“I was afraid, and I wanted everyone to do something,” he said. “I was giving orders to unload the car,” he said, adding, “I was afraid to be near him.”
Artem died within the hour. He was 27.
“Kurka was a dude who wasn’t afraid of death,” Dmytro later said. “And he wasn’t just saying that, he lived like that.”
Three days later, Roman and Dmytro traveled to Lviv to say goodbye to their friend.
Hundreds of current and former scouts lined the streets as his coffin was carried to the military cemetery on Lviv’s outskirts. Roman, wearing military fatigues, eyes heavy with grief, and Dmytro, in a white linen shirt with long hair, joined the crowds. A military band played a funeral march.
At the grave, they helped unwrap Artem’s beloved parachute and spread it gently over the open ground. Then his coffin was placed on top.
They joined friends and family members who shoveled the first heaps of soil onto the wooden box.
While no official death toll has been released since the war began, U.S. officials estimated that by the end of August this year, close to 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and some 100,000 to 120,000 wounded. The mounting losses are evident in the military cemetery in Lviv, where the once-empty hillside around Artem’s grave has seen hundreds of burials since June 2022.
After the funeral, Roman and Dmytro sat on steps at the edge of the graveyard. They spoke of Artem, of his zest for life and his carefree attitude.
“To be honest, instead of this strange orchestra, it should be Metallica playing or Johnny Cash,” Dmytro said, pushing his shaggy hair back from his eyes. “We should have driven his coffin on pickup trucks. It should be some sort of celebration.”
Within days, he and Roman headed back to war.
The fall turned to winter, their first at war. In December and January, Roman and Dmytro posted videos singing carols for Christmas and Orthodox Christmas from the front line. They marked a year since Russia invaded.
In early March, they were given a short break. After a few days away, Dmytro returned to camp in the Kherson region, and Roman planned to follow several days later. Roman was still in Kyiv on March 12 when another soldier called from down south.
The Russians had discovered their position and launched a kamikaze drone attack. Dmytro died instantly. Like Artem, he was 27.
The death of another close friend haunted Roman. “You really don’t know why these things happen how they do, and why it happened to Kurka or Dmytro,” he said.
The three were together all the time in the war, Roman said, but he was not present when both of his friends died.
“So why was I not with them?” Roman asked. “You think if you were there, probably you could do something, save them or something.”
Again, he traveled west to say goodbye to a friend.
Dmytro had grown up in the small village of Khlivchany, about an hour from Lviv. That was where he was buried in March as a rainstorm soaked the mourners, the drops mingling with their tears.
As his coffin was driven to the church, local residents knelt in the puddles that pooled along the roadside. A blue and yellow flag, soaked through by the rain, clung to the wood.
Roman stood alongside Dmytro’s fiancée, Ganusya, in the church. She and Dmytro had planned for an April wedding just three weeks later.
“This is the greatest pain, I think, if we start to talk about how much stuff they could have done in the future,” Roman said this summer, reflecting on the loss of his friends.
He was sitting at a cafe called Respublika, one of Dmytro’s projects that he had long been planning to open. Dmytro died before he had the chance, but friends and family opened the cafe this spring.
There is much more at the link!
Avdiivka:
According to Ukraine’s military, some 5,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured around Avdiivka in the past two weeks; US NSC spox John Kirby said on Thursday Russia suffered “thousands of casualties in their effort to conduct this offensive.”
More: https://t.co/5D2yj4NhqM https://t.co/K47FMPJOMp— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 30, 2023
.@DPSU_ua has confirmed that one of the border guard units shot down a Russian SU-25 plane near Avdiivka. pic.twitter.com/sEiFrSVfm7
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 30, 2023
110th Brigade of Ukraine bombarding abounded Russian BMP and tank on Avdiivka front. https://t.co/GwEfNVMlUL pic.twitter.com/GCHo4ddpUX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 30, 2023
Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok 220mm MLRS destroyed by the Security Service of Ukraine. Avdiivka front.https://t.co/6j3HNBWrb7 pic.twitter.com/49rTxp63NI
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 30, 2023
Russian "reporter" Filatov, who is present in the Avdiivka frontline, explains what went wrong: newly arrived reserves were meant to demine paths for vehicle columns, then to be followed by other forces, including the 114th Brigade. The goal was to overwhelm Ukrainian positions… pic.twitter.com/WNhnZAewCS
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 30, 2023
Russian “reporter” Filatov, who is present in the Avdiivka frontline, explains what went wrong: newly arrived reserves were meant to demine paths for vehicle columns, then to be followed by other forces, including the 114th Brigade. The goal was to overwhelm Ukrainian positions and artillery.
However, for unclear reasons, it was the 114th that went first and ended up under extreme Ukrainian shelling, causing major losses. The following columns faced the same fate as no demining took place.
Filatov complains also about disingenuous reports that were being sent to the higher-ups regarding Avdiivka.
Here’s the screen grabs of Dmitri’s translation:
Russian instructor describes the assault methods of penal Storm Z units in Avdiivka, who take significant losses due to being considered less valuable. He mentions irreversible losses to 40-70%.https://t.co/CnLYAr5I8w pic.twitter.com/9bMbdWlt82
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 30, 2023
Here’s the screen grabs of Dmitri’s translations:
Bakhmut:
Бахмутское направление, будни #3ошбр #всу (полное видео https://t.co/lxcYrv0S3S) pic.twitter.com/0f4g2BuWOy
— Necro Mancer (@666_mancer) October 30, 2023
Bakhmut direction, everyday life #3ошбр #всу (full video https://t.me/ab3army/3298)
Russian occupied Crimea:
Russian sources report that a combined attack using 2 ATACMS missiles, 3 unmanned boats, and, presumably, Storm Shadow missiles, was launched against Crimea last night.
This would be the first use of ATACMS against Crimea.
Ukrainian official source this morning reported about…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) October 30, 2023
Russian sources report that a combined attack using 2 ATACMS missiles, 3 unmanned boats, and, presumably, Storm Shadow missiles, was launched against Crimea last night.
This would be the first use of ATACMS against Crimea.
Ukrainian official source this morning reported about 17 Russian casualties in Cape Tarnakhut, alongside 5 “vehicles”. It is said that the Russian air defence regiment was attacked. The unmanned boats were noticed in Sebastopol (Rybar). The Storm Shadow claim also comes from Rybar. Ukrainian channels have not publicly said which weapon type they used.
Additionally, the Ukrainian “South” operational command says that Russians are actively developing a military hub in Crimea where they will keep resources at a decent level of readiness.
https://t.me/astrapress/41363
https://t.me/rybar/53748
https://ukrinform.ua/rubric-crimea/3780221-u-krimu-trivae-sezon-bavovni-rosiani-namagautsa-pererozpodilati-sili-ok-pivden.html
Multiple pro-Russian sources say that the Russian bases near Olenivka at the Cape Tarnakhut have been struck by two ATACMS and potentially Storm Shadows / SCALP-EG. In addition, they claim that three USVs were involved in an attack at Sevastopol.
The Ukrainian Army hasn't… https://t.co/Qz6lt7aih7
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 30, 2023
Multiple pro-Russian sources say that the Russian bases near Olenivka at the Cape Tarnakhut have been struck by two ATACMS and potentially Storm Shadows / SCALP-EG. In addition, they claim that three USVs were involved in an attack at Sevastopol.
The Ukrainian Army hasn’t commented on that, yet.
This would mark the first usage of ATACMS in Russian-occupied Crimea, further complicating Russia’s already strained logistical issues and even diminish Crimea as a staging ground for Russian attacks in all of Ukraine.
At 03:00 am this morning local time, a Russian air defense regiment at Olenivka, Russian-occupied Crimea, has been hit. The source says that 17 Russian soldiers were wounded and 5 vehicles damaged.
The casualties are probably higher.
Source: https://t.co/EDQSOrmuaO#Ukraine… pic.twitter.com/TiYXQQ8qRl
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 30, 2023
At 03:00 am this morning local time, a Russian air defense regiment at Olenivka, Russian-occupied Crimea, has been hit. The source says that 17 Russian soldiers were wounded and 5 vehicles damaged.
The casualties are probably higher.
Source: https://t.me/astrapress/41363
An attack on Sevastopol is reported by Russian sources. Extensive activity of Russian air defence is reported. pic.twitter.com/RO6bV9qNPA
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 30, 2023
The main question in the first footage is this. pic.twitter.com/bDEtQk1DdK
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 30, 2023
Krynky, Kherson Oblast:
There is enough evidence that Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the Dnipro river at multiple points. Among them is the settlement of Krynky.
This is in line with claims from Russian sources as well as the fact that the Russian commander of this sector, Colonel General… pic.twitter.com/Ff7MkaFvwM
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 29, 2023
There is enough evidence that Ukrainian forces successfully crossed the Dnipro river at multiple points. Among them is the settlement of Krynky.
This is in line with claims from Russian sources as well as the fact that the Russian commander of this sector, Colonel General Makarevich, has been removed from command, as mentioned in my previous post.
Source of video: @NOELreports
Ukrainian forces liberated Krynky on the south side of the Dnipro and Konka River.#Ukraine #Kherson pic.twitter.com/AZtw1WpjtD
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 29, 2023
Other parts of Kherson Oblast:
Aside from Krynky, Ukrainian forces also liberated islands along the Dnipro/Konka River next to the rail bridge near Kherson.#Ukraine #Kherson pic.twitter.com/dSUqd0WaFt
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 29, 2023
Russian occupied Volnovakha, Donetsk Oblast:
Russian soldiers murdered an Ukrainian family of four, including 5 more relatives in Russian-occupied Volnovakha.
It happened during the a birthday celebration. During the party, the Russian "soldiers" appeared, demanding from them to surrender their house. The father refused… pic.twitter.com/gz3YGDPZoA
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 30, 2023
Russian soldiers murdered an Ukrainian family of four, including 5 more relatives in Russian-occupied Volnovakha.
It happened during the a birthday celebration. During the party, the Russian “soldiers” appeared, demanding from them to surrender their house. The father refused and for that they were all murdered. The murderers are Kadyrovkis from Chechnya.
The pictures of the massacred family are circulating in social media. I won’t share them. Instead, I will share pictures of the families in good times, before Russia came and murdered them. Their names were: Andrei Kapkanets, his wife Natalia and their children Nikita (4 years) and Nastya (9 years).
I’ve seen the pictures of the family circulating on social media. Trust me that you don’t want to see them, which is why I’m not posting those posts, even though they’re from legit sources I regularly reference.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There is a new slideshow at Patron’s official TikTok. Those don’t embed here, so click through if you want to see it.
Here’s some Patron adjacent material from the State Border Service of Ukraine via the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
Every brave warrior must have a loyal companion!
📸: State Border Service pic.twitter.com/ZgUxDQHrgc
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 30, 2023
Open thread!
Eolirin
Putting aside the very real problems that need to get resolved in funding and supplies, it seems like Ukraine is doing a very good job systematically reducing Russia’s anti-air capabilities. Beyond opening up the range that they can effectively use their drones in, I would assume this will also pay dividends once they have access to F-16s?
japa21
In the last tweet, I am assuming the brave warrior is wearing goggles and the loyal companion is carrying a weapon.
Villago Delenda Est
Manchin should be suited up and sent to Gaza to serve as a shock trooper for the Israeli Army in the tunnels.
Eolirin
@Villago Delenda Est: After the next election. He’s still a useful vote on judges until then.
I do find it remarkable that the House put in that egregious of a poison pill though. It’ll make it so much easier for the Dems to hold strong on combined funding than it would have been if they tried to move a clean supplemental funding bill for Israel.
hrprogressive
What’s more likely?
Only aid to Israel and none to Ukraine because *Reasons*?
Or enough people say “No aid to Israel *without* aid to Ukraine, too”?
I’d love for it to be #2, but I suspect our politicians are all too gutless or too, “enamored” with sending aid to Israel that they can’t wait to do it regardless of anything else that happens.
Alison Rose
Not an “urgent need” well I have an urgent need to kick Johnson in the junk so hard, he chokes on his own nuts.
Sorry.
I’ll reiterate my desire to see people like him air-dropped into Avdiivka so he can fucking see just how urgent it is. Make him watch surgeries, make him hide out in shelters with frightened children during air raids. Make him clean up blood with his damn tongue.
He makes me want to scream, and the story of Artem and Dmytro and Roman makes me want to cry. Which is how I feel every day, basically.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Eolirin
@hrprogressive: Given the IRS offsets it seems the House’s position is really no aid to anyone. There’s no reason for Dems or Senate Republicans to move off of combined aid as long as the House proposal is that dead on arrival.
tobie
I found myself wondering the other day if POTUS asked for $60 billion for Ukraine, knowing that the House GOP would balk at any funding. If they come back with $20-$30 billion, he may smile to himself, because he got what he wanted, even as the House GOP would strut and claim that they owned him. This is sheer speculation on my part. But one thing I’ve learned is that Biden is a clever politician and he knows exactly what he’s dealing with in the House.
Gin & Tonic
Some of you may recall a heart-rending video from last year of a Ukrainian mother singing a lullaby at her son’s funeral. That son was named Artem, one of the three friends written about in that NYT piece.
hrprogressive
@Eolirin:
I have no doubt the “Let’s Fund Isreal by kneecapping the IRS” is not a serious proposal with no chance of passage.
But eventually there will be some sort of “clean” bill, and I suspect it’ll just be Israeli aid because I don’t trust the Democrats to stand up to anyone or anything when the chips are down.
I’d like to be wrong though.
Freemark
I have to say I really appreciated the music that accompanied that TOS-1A being decommissioned.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic:
💔💔💔
Brachiator
Who the GOP is protecting. From CBS News stories.
Life is actually good for a lot of Americans.
Putting it into perspective
Ben Vernia
As I recall, there was a bill created (a kind of laundry list of BS, with multiple committees assigned) that could be brought to the floor via a discharge petition and then amended. The original goal was to lift the debt ceiling. I wonder if that could be used to force a House vote on Ukraine aid.
Bex
@Alison Rose: No urgent need means the check from Voldemort cleared. Didn’t take long to get Mikhail Ivanov’s new address.
Eolirin
@hrprogressive: It’ll depend on if the House sticks to these kinds of unserious positions long enough that Democratic votes are needed to prevent a long shutdown; Dems will have tremendous leverage if the only way to move anything forward is a discharge petition. There are enough votes for Ukraine funding among House Republicans that it should pass if it gets to the floor.
If the House leadership pushes a clean bill for Israel funding we’d be put in a politically difficult situation, sure. Dems might fold if that happens. They seem disinclined to do this at the moment, which is good news. And they only have like two weeks before they need to fund the rest of the government so they don’t have very long to change tactics.
Another Scott
@hrprogressive: Most of the House supports aid to Ukraine.
TheHill.com (from September):
Ukraine has a lot of support in the House. The critics are noisier and get more press attention.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cameron
Appalling. These clowns are trying so hard to service the rich and to own the libs that they’re not even aware that the world is on fire and could wind up destroyed. Well, maybe SOTH-bro is aware of that, but figures that if Big Nuke lands on his porch, he’ll just Rapture right on out of here.
I wouldn’t want these people running a cash register in a dollar store; they have no business at any level of government. Dishonest and dumb is not a winning combination.
Another Scott
@Freemark: Perry Como is always appropriate.
;-)
Hehe.
Cheers,
Scott.
coin operated
@Another Scott: hadn’t seen these numbers before…thank you
hrprogressive
@Another Scott:
Thanks for the background, I appreciate it
Adam L Silverman
@Eolirin: When the Democratic majority Senate rejects it, the House GOP will immediately lean into the messaging that Democrats are anti-Israel and antisemitic. Because if they weren’t they’d pass the House bill. And the NY Times, Politico, Semafor, Fox, etc will eat it right up and amplify it.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: The critics also now include the Speaker who decides which bills come to the floor. If you control what gets voted on you don’t need to be in the majority.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman: Except they won’t reject it. They will rewrite it to include aid for both and it will pass with strong bipartisan support. Then it will be up to the House to decide what they will do. However, all of this is pure guesswork on all our parts. I think we have all learned by now, that our ability to predict this stuff is rather low.
Mike in NC
Putin’s puppets in the MAGA House never disappoint. Most of them couldn’t find Ukraine on a map.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: It won’t clear a filibuster in the Senate.
japa21
@Adam L Silverman:
There are enough Republicans in the Senate pro-Ukraine aid, that I believe it would easily clear a filibuster. And probably would get 70 votes overall.
topclimber
@Adam L Silverman: There is also the matter of Dark Brandon and his mighty veto pen.
Adam L Silverman
@japa21: We’ll see. I don’t think McConnell has the support here that he thinks he has.
Adam L Silverman
@topclimber: There won’t be anything to veto.
topclimber
@Adam L Silverman: The point is Biden can take the heat for Senators by threatening to veto Israeli-only aid. So if you are saying he will eventually get the package he wants, I agree. Why veto what you want?
Cameron
I wonder if any of these bills will get through before the government shuts down. Isn’t that supposed to happen in a couple of weeks?
Another Scott
@Cameron: Friday November 17.
Cheers,
Scott.
Cameron
@Another Scott: Going to be a very interesting month.
Another Scott
@Cameron: It is always exciting, especially the last days before the deadline. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Eolirin
@Adam L Silverman: If McConnell has the votes he thinks he does, the Democratic Senate majority will have moved their own bill forward and can make an argument about the House playing games. While the media is slanted against Democrats, we also have prominent Republicans pushing on this, it’ll mess with the media narrative everywhere that isn’t Fox or worse.
It’s a bad play on their part, though it may be necessary given some of their hard liners. A clean bill would be much harder to argue against. Because we’re assuming this even gets through the House in the first place. There are already two nos from the Republicans, and I don’t trust them to be able to count.
Carlo Graziani
One of the surprising (to me) takeaway from Dmitri’s reporting is how bad the Russian artillery arm is at its job. This is kind of shocking, because most of Russia’s warmaking of the past two decades was artillery-led (Chechnya, Syria, to some extent Georgia, where aerial bombing shared primacy of arms). But I don’t think it was widely appreciated among analysts how badly the Russian focus on reducing civilian resistance would translate to an ability to provide artillery support to mobile infantry and armor.
They have a lot of trouble hitting hardened stationary targets accurately enough to force them to move, and they can’t hit anything that moves! Russian artillery is utterly ineffective in an offensive role, and even kind of pathetic on defense, as we saw here a couple of weeks ago in that video of a column of Ukrainian armor clearing a section of forest south of Orkhiv, where a UA tank took up a poition in an open field and fired freely on Russian defensive emplacements without getting the least amount of shelling from the Russians.
Folks in the West have wrung their hands about the difficulty of teaching combined-arms warfare to the Ukrainians, but never seem to have bothered asking themselves whether the Russians had any real CA capability. The answer is, clearly, no. Defensively or offensively, the Russians can’t coordinate shit, and each of their service arms just knows its own manual, and doesn’t care to learn the requirements of any other arm, let alone procure equipment or train for any kind of joint mission.
So Russian artillery is the finest city-reducing force in the world, and unlikely to ever grow beyond that competence. Pity for them that this war can’t be won by reducing the cities that they can reach.
Another Scott
@Eolirin:
MissouriIndependent.com (from September 30):
The timing has obviously changed, but I think the commitment is still there.
A majority of Republicans in the Senate would give Ukraine about 75 total votes.
My bottom line continues to be:
1) Politicians want to get re-elected above all else.
2) The Senate and the House institutionally hate each other. The Senate is not going to be easily rolled by the bomb-throwers in the House.
That means that a CR is the most-likely course before November 17, and aid to Ukraine is coming as well. There will be some bumps and annoyances and I’ll be very surprised if the whole $106B Biden asked for gets through without some reductions and some bad stuff.
We’ll see.
Cheers,
Scott.
Sebastian
@Carlo Graziani:
Very much on point. It also looks like weeks of counterbattery fire and focus on eliminating Russian guns and MLRS is paying off royal dividends for Ukraine.
Thank you Adam for this superb update. The situation on the Dnipro is starting to become interesting!
way2blue
@Gin & Tonic:
Oh. I was afraid of that. So couldn’t read to the end…
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: It has been clear since the start of the invasion that Russian Army training has neglected basics of combined arms operations, & what passed for experienced cadre has since been badly attrited over 20 months of high intensity warfare. They have shown some ability to learn, adapt & adopt new tactics, techniques & technologies in specific areas, but it is difficult to achieve proficiency in combined arms operations (such as efficiently correcting artillery fire, or having the right unit go in the right sequence on the attack). We have seen it on both sides, but the Ukrainian side has demonstrated greater ability & ingenuity (by institutional culture & by necessity) to learn & adapt.
In this war of attrition, the Russian military continues to have the advantage of much greater mass (in men & equipment), but that advantage is undermined by pervasive & persistent incompetence, poor training, lack of concern by commanders to conserve their resources, operating on exterior lines, & by a noticeable shortage of artillery & missile munitions (& a dire shortage of PGMs).
The Ukrainian side now has significant advantage in quality from the western supplied arms, especially artillery & PGMs of increasingly long range. It sees to have conserved much of the western supplied heavy armor (MBT & IFVs) through the summer offensive, though a fair number of lighter armor (APCs & MRAPs) have been lost. The problem appears to be shortage of munitions overall, especially PGMs. A number of Western analysts have shared that the supply of 155 mm howitzer rounds will be a problem for the next year. Western countries had to scour across the planet for rounds to send to Ukraine in 2023, a lot of which came from South Korea. That stock has now largely been expended, & there isn’t another plentiful source readily available. As the Ukrainian Armed Forces will not likely achieve air superiority w/in the next year, they need at least sustained artillery fire superiority to successfully go on the offensive. If the Ukrainian Army had the ATACMs to threaten the Russian helicopter base at Berdyansk at the start of the summer offensive, it might have had a material impact, as the Russian Army effectively employed those attack helicopters to snipe at the Ukrainian armor in the advancing columns, from outside of the Ukrainian short range AD umbrella.
The breach through the 1st of the Surovikhin Lines at Robotyne has yet to manifest in a breakthrough. The Ukrainian Army is still some ways from Tokmak, let along Melitopol. They have managed to badly attrit the Russian units defending the lines, at the expense of substantial loses themselves & significant expenditure of precious munitions. OTOH, the Ukraine Armed Forces, employing ingenious methods & tactics, have made the Russian position in Crimea close to untenable. This is probably the opposite of most people’s expectations back in May – that the Ukraine would be threatening to cut off the land bridge to Crimea, but would not be in a position to threaten Crimea itself.
bjacques
If the GOP and friendly media want to accuse the Democrats of anti-Semitism for rejecting the House Israel-only bill, then Jewish Democratic House and Senate members should be front and center constantly promoting Joe’s request and the Senate bill aiding both Israel and Ukraine. Democratic Jews are more prominent and larger in number than Republican ones. And if the House GOP threatens a shutdown, then slam *them* for anti-Semitism, since it means Israel gets nothing.
It takes focused and sustained messaging to break through the fatberg of rightwing media and complaisant bobbleheads, but it can be done.