(Image by NEIVANMADE)
russia continues its missile terror, especially intensifying it before winter. The main target for the occupiers is civilian infrastructure.
Overnight, nearly 40 "Shahed" UAVs were launched, and our warriors managed to shoot down 24 of them.
We are grateful to 🇺🇦 defenders of… pic.twitter.com/VtEer1J7cS
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2023
russia continues its missile terror, especially intensifying it before winter. The main target for the occupiers is civilian infrastructure.
Overnight, nearly 40 “Shahed” UAVs were launched, and our warriors managed to shoot down 24 of them.
We are grateful to 🇺🇦 defenders of the sky.
Strengthening air defense is our priority.
Russia launched 40 Shahed drones across Ukraine tonight, 24 were intercepted. Ten drones hit Kharkiv, making this the largest drone attack on Ukraine in a month.
This highlights the urgent need for increased air defense supplies. Russia is testing new routes and their… pic.twitter.com/2xZqRNrrCo
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 3, 2023
Russia launched 40 Shahed drones across Ukraine tonight, 24 were intercepted. Ten drones hit Kharkiv, making this the largest drone attack on Ukraine in a month.
This highlights the urgent need for increased air defense supplies. Russia is testing new routes and their effectiveness in preparation for larger assaults.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump. (emphasis mine)
Every time I meet with our soldiers, I see not just a readiness to defend Ukraine, but a determination to win this war – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address
3 November 2023 – 19:22
I wish good health to all Ukrainian men and women!
Today, I had the honor to visit and greet our soldiers – artillery, missile forces, and engineering troops. Today is the professional day of these branches of the military. I awarded our defenders with state honors and expressed my gratitude to their commanders. I want to say to every artillery soldier, every missile force warrior, and every engineering troop member – you are truly our backbone, the backbone of all defense and security forces. It’s what allows everyone to be resilient and specified divisions to move forward, to advance on the frontlines, and to gain new positions every day. Every five hundred meters, every kilometer that our guys pass, are new operational capabilities for Ukraine, especially for our missiles. By the way, this autumn, we’ve achieved good and very important results in destroying the Russian air defense systems and the enemy’s combat aircraft. We will continue this work, and I thank everyone who helps us with this.
I ordered a reshuffle in the command structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – I appointed Colonel Serhiy Lupanchuk as the new commander of the Special Operations Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He is an experienced officer, a combat officer, the right man in command, and someone who can bring greater power to our Special Operations Forces. We look forward to new results. General Viktor Khorenko, who commanded the Special Operations Forces, will continue to perform special tasks as part of Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
I held a preparatory meeting regarding the next week – political work and our steps together with the European Union. We use every day to add substance to the preparation for the decision to start negotiations on our country’s accession to the European Union. We understand the time limits and political steps clearly. And today, I signed an important law regarding national communities. We’ve implemented another criterion for our European integration. Additional guarantees for national communities in Ukraine, additional guarantees for our movement toward the European Union. We continue our work in implementing the recommendations of the European Commission.
And one more thing.
Every time I meet with our soldiers – those on the frontlines, those preparing to return to the front, those deserving of state honors… Every time I meet with them, I see not just a readiness to defend Ukraine but a determination to win for Ukraine. To win in this war. We have our part to do. It’s our need. I remember well how people were feeling on February 24 and in the early days of the full-scale war. I remember what was said and who said it. Who believed and who was mistaken by not believing in Ukraine. It’s important to be as confident in Ukraine now as we were back then. Russia wanted Kyiv, but they were forced to flee. They wanted Kharkiv and claimed it as a Russian city, but our Kharkiv is and always will be free. The same goes for Kherson. The same goes for Odesa. And we will not abandon our people in the occupied territories – I want them to hear this now. It’s about millions of destinies. All our partners know what’s needed… For the front, for our skies, for our cities, and for our movement.
I thank everyone in the world who is helping! I thank everyone who is fighting and working for Ukraine!
Glory to Ukraine!
Gen. Khorenko told @ukrpravda_news he doesn't know why he was dismissed. "I personally do not know the reason. I will tell you this, I learned about it from the media. I talked to Commander-in-Chief [Zaluzhny], who also could not explain this to me." https://t.co/Wcxv0VSME7
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 3, 2023
From Ukrainska Pravda:
Major General Viktor Khorenko does not know the reasons for his dismissal from the post of Commander of the Special Operations Forces. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, did not submit a request for his dismissal.
Source: Khorenko on the air of a Ukrainska Pravda talk show
Quote: “I personally do not know the reason. I will tell you this, I learned about it from the media. I talked to the Commander-in-Chief (Valerii Zaluzhnyi), who also could not explain this to me.
The commander-in-chief is supposed to make the request for this, but he told me that he had not done so. I don’t understand what has happened.”
Details: Khorenko noted that Zaluzhnyi called him today and asked if he was aware of the situation. The major general replied in the negative.
Khorenko says he does not know anything about his further fate in the military. He only said that “he will do everything he can for the victory of Ukraine”.
When asked whether Khorenko tried to contact the President’s Office to clarify the situation, the officer stated that he did not have such access.
Quote: “The persons responsible for communication with the Armed Forces, the Defence Forces, have not given me such information at the moment,” the serviceman added.
Khorenko noted that the Special Operations Forces are working in many areas along the front line and are planning a number of operations, in particular on the Avdiivka front.
According to the officer, Zaluzhnyi said that there were no questions or complaints about his performance of combat missions.
When asked whether Khorenko had any conflict with the Office of the President of Ukraine or with someone from the command, the major general replied that he would not comment on this: “let certain persons answer that”.
Khorenko has not yet communicated with his successor.
Previously: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy by his decree from 3 November dismissed Viktor Khorenko and appointed Serhii Lupanchuk as the new commander of the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Zelenskyy said in his evening video address that Khorenko will continue to carry out special tasks as part of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence.
I’ll keep an eye out for further details.
🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense announced additional security assistance for Ukraine valued at up to $125 million to meet immediate battlefield needs, and $300 million in USAI funds to strengthen air defenses over the long term.
The capabilities in this package include:
◾️Additional munitions…— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2023
🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense announced additional security assistance for Ukraine valued at up to $125 million to meet immediate battlefield needs, and $300 million in USAI funds to strengthen air defenses over the long term.
The capabilities in this package include:
◾️Additional munitions for NASAMS;
◾️Additional ammunition for HIMARS;
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
◾️TOW missiles;
◾️Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
◾️3+ million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenades;
◾️Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing;
◾️M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
◾️12 trucks to transport heavy equipment;
◾️Cold weather gear;
◾️Spare parts, maintenance, and field equipment.Under USAI, the DoD will provide Ukraine with:
◾️Additional laser-guided munitions to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems.Thank you for supporting Ukraine in our fight for freedom.
Together, to victory!🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
As I mentioned last night, this is being done under presidential drawdown authority. There is still $5 billion left from the previous appropriation for Ukraine.
Avdiivka:
It used to be a column of russian tanks and armored vehicles.
🇺🇦 artillery turned it into a lot of scrap metal in the Ukrainian field.📹: 47th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/LSd4UNhD4u
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2023
An absolutely epic compilation of the battle around Avdiivka. Dozens of Russian armored vehicles are being blown to absolute bits. Some parts of the video were shown before, but others are completely new.
The two screenshots (timestamp 1:02 – 1:20) are the highlight. You can see… pic.twitter.com/7GROwnlbZr
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) November 3, 2023
An absolutely epic compilation of the battle around Avdiivka. Dozens of Russian armored vehicles are being blown to absolute bits. Some parts of the video were shown before, but others are completely new.
The two screenshots (timestamp 1:02 – 1:20) are the highlight. You can see not only two interlinking minefields, but also mounted Russian infantry next to the field. Clearly knowing that they are rolling into a minefield, they didn’t warn their comrades. The shrapnel and pieces of the eliminated tank completely showered them.
Absolutely hilarious.
Some of it is quite old, but spectacular nonetheless.
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 3, 2023
Kharkiv:
Returning from a visit to 🇺🇦 Ukraine, where I also visited the eastern city of Kharkiv. The images of the badly damaged city are seared into my memory. Thinking of the victims and the people who live there, so close to the Russian threat. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/uEHR9wZCoT
— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) November 2, 2023
War crimes may not go unpunished. While in Ukraine, I met with the 🇳🇱🇧🇪🇨🇿 forensic investigation team. We spoke about the crucial importance of their work on uncovering the truth while operating in extremely difficult circumstances. (3/3) pic.twitter.com/wId4w0IXeu
— Kajsa Ollongren (@DefensieMin) November 2, 2023
🇺🇦🇳🇱 Міністр оборони Нідерландів Кайса Оллонгрен біля муралу "Привид Києва". pic.twitter.com/SSoFJr2yIi
— MilitaryAviationInUa (@MilAviaUA) November 2, 2023
🇺🇦🇳🇱 Dutch Minister of Defense Kees Ollongren near the mural “The Ghost of Kyiv”.
Demolition of college building in Kharkiv, struck by Russian drone, reduces risk to local residents. Yet another ugly scar inflicted by Russia on Ukraine, and it still hurts every time. pic.twitter.com/xGcYkBFgfr
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 3, 2023
The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson:
Magyar's Birds tells about the destruction of two experienced Russian "Upyr" FPV drone operators who were causing a lot of trouble to the Ukrainian forces trying to cross the Dnieper. They were killed with an FPV drone. Confirmation of this emerged on Russian channels.… pic.twitter.com/ygbnkTh8u8
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) November 3, 2023
Magyar’s Birds tells about the destruction of two experienced Russian “Upyr” FPV drone operators who were causing a lot of trouble to the Ukrainian forces trying to cross the Dnieper. They were killed with an FPV drone. Confirmation of this emerged on Russian channels.
Destroyed group of Russians left bank Kherson region.https://t.co/tiJSwrePFC pic.twitter.com/KEKeQTHcU4
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 3, 2023
Poposna:
Popasna.
This city ceased to exist a year and a half ago as Russia came.
Bakhmut was next to go extinct. pic.twitter.com/1cNriwogyP— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 2, 2023
For those of you who have been asking about Russia’s ability to generate new missiles, rockets, and/or drones:
Russian Telegrams are reporting that the first batch of "Scalpel" loitering munitions ( a smaller "budget" version of Lancet) is ready for use in eastern Ukraine: "….there are not enough Lancets – that's a fact. We are not competing (with Lancet) – we just want to deliver the… https://t.co/gw70EfZ4HZ pic.twitter.com/5Mqd9Jo8J9
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) November 2, 2023
Russian Telegrams are reporting that the first batch of “Scalpel” loitering munitions ( a smaller “budget” version of Lancet) is ready for use in eastern Ukraine: “….there are not enough Lancets – that’s a fact. We are not competing (with Lancet) – we just want to deliver the necessary means of destruction to the front.” https://t.me/uav_tech/22486
How do you copy Russia's Lancet loitering munition? You – that is, "Vostok" Design Bureau – name your own UAV "Scalpel" (basically the same meaning as lancet) and claim its cheaper than Rostec's drone. Unclear if it was tested in Ukraine yet. https://t.co/PlMs7CxtlA and… pic.twitter.com/krB72z5gcm
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) August 10, 2023
How do you copy Russia’s Lancet loitering munition? You – that is, “Vostok” Design Bureau – name your own UAV “Scalpel” (basically the same meaning as lancet) and claim its cheaper than Rostec’s drone. Unclear if it was tested in Ukraine yet. https://vostok-kb.ru and https://t.me/xronikabpla/5269
But hey, why stop at Scalpel when it comes to borrowing existing drone names? Vostok's new VTOL drone is also named "Dobrynya", same as Almaz-Anteyt's infamous Dorbrynya quadcopter profiled earlier. https://t.co/lRbJC08Iud pic.twitter.com/lmeqojnEVb
— Samuel Bendett (@sambendett) August 10, 2023
Now we wait to see if they actually work.
For Omnes:
As the saying goes, artillerymen believe the world consist of two types of people: other artillerymen and targets.
📹: 59th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/jFMsPY8aMB
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2023
Congratulations on Artillery and Missile Forces Day, followed by the launch of three ATACMS missiles against Russian targets.https://t.co/SaenH4uWzs pic.twitter.com/KfXQPU5e73
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 3, 2023
A little present from 🇸🇪Sweden on 🇺🇦Ukraine's Artillery Day! pic.twitter.com/MmlmNvSiru
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 3, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Ukrainian sappers and soldiers who lost their legs or arms but didn’t lose their curiosity to life❤️ Because they are super humans. @superhumans_com pic.twitter.com/igANATYfQU
— Patron (@PatronDsns) November 3, 2023
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Впізнали б мене на вулиці?😄
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Would you recognize me on the street? 😄
Open thread!
Redshift
I’d like to think so!
Bill Arnold
Re the 24 of 40 Shahed drones shootdown rate, I haven’t yet spotted (in English) any informed speculation about the lower-than-usual rate. E.g. is it blamed on insufficient distance from Kharkiv to the Russian border for a drone-defense-in-depth, or on new Russian evasion tactics?
Suzanne
I am seeing (on the Xhitter) that this war is essentially at a stalemate point. I believe nothing I read there until it is verified elsewhere. Any thoughts on this?
Adam L Silverman
@Bill Arnold: I don’t know. I’ll keep an eye out in case an analysis is posted.
Alison Rose
I’d have to assume there is some rational reason for the dismissal, although it does seem odd that it wasn’t done through usual channels. Hearing about it in the media is not ideal.
Honestly, if I were able to go out and about, any Jack Russell I saw, I’d just yell HI PATRON even though he is 6,000 miles away from me.
Thank you as always, Adam.
bookworm1398
A political question: what was the amount of the previous Ukraine military aid authorization based on? Would it have been difficult to have doubled the number? Does it make sense to ask for more than 60 billion now, I don’t think any more people would be opposed if the number was higher.
Jay
@Suzanne:
Nope, in the south, Ukraine is still advancing, tree line by tree line, footholds holding across the river. It is slow going.
In the north, the Ruzzian’s are Bakmut’ing them selves with offensives against deeply entrenched Ukrainian positions established in 2013/14.
YY_Sima Qian
Low tech drones such as the Shaheds are better used in waves of 100+ to have meaningful impact beyond as a terror weapon.
YY_Sima Qian
@Suzanne: Gen. Zaluzhnyi himself has admitted to the Economist that the war is at a stalemate, explicitly due to technological developments on the battlefield that minimizes surprise and enables rapid response by both sides, implicitly due to slow trickle of Western aid (relative to Ukrainian need) & hesitation in supplying the more advanced weapons & munitions. This has been discussed in detail in the two previous updates by Adam.
Yarrow
I would know Patron anywhere!
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Gen. Zaluzhnyi did not use the term “stalemate”, Media did.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-military-russia-war-attrition-zaluzhnyi-1.7015217
HumboldtBlue
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: That Adam guy is making me look bad.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: The actual exerts published by the Economist has Gen. Zalushnyi stating that technological developments has pushed the current state of the war toward a stalemate, and that there likely will not be any “beautiful” breakthroughs by either side any time soon. He also stated that he believes the stalemate can only be broken by introduction of new disruptive technology. Furthermore, the experienced he described seeing is the Ukrainian offensives in Zaporizhzhia & Bakhmut, as well as Russian offensive at Avdiivka, also points to a stalemate.
Now, Gen. Zalushnyi could be overemphasizing the prospect of stalemate to push the Western countries to accelerate and expand their aid, but the brutally honest & detached analysis that he shared in the interview goes well beyond what would be necessary for that purpose. He went so far as professing the belief that some of the weapons that will be provided by the West in the coming year (such as the F-16s) will not materially change the current state of war. In fact, I am a bit concerned that his brutal honesty might have the opposite effect of dampening the enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine among some Western quarters, since no one really have these disruptive, revolutionary new technologies up their sleeves.
As I commented 2 days ago, I happen to disagree w/ his assessment that disruptive, revolutionary technology is required to break the stalemate. The stalemate on the WW I Western Front was ultimately broken not by new Wunderwaffen, those that did emerge through the course of the war & hailed as such (I.e., tanks & airplanes) had failed to do so, but by the arrival of fresh reserves (the U.S.) & the exhaustion of German capacity for war. (Of course, Gen. Zalushnyi‘s point is that Ukraine can not afford to engage in such protracted attrition.) Furthermore, the surprise Hamas assault into Israel on 10/7 showed how seemingly overwhelming advantages could be overcome & quite quickly. The IDF enjoys far greater superiority over Hamas, in every aspect, that Russia does over Ukraine.
hotshoe
KCRW Today’s Top Tune:
Inna Kovtun, Ukrainian singer, “Burning Fires”
Available for free (no tricks, just treats) download at the link until midnight West Coast time (about 1-1/2 hours from now).
Will be available to listen to but not to download after that.
Enjoy!
Traveller
This is an open thread, though I have never used this privilege before, now seems appropriate. If anyone takes exception they can bypass this, say bad things about my liberty takin`, or try to explain the below to me…a little.
Senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad told Lebanese TV that his organisation was determined to repeat the massacre of 7 October, when the men of Hamas murdered some 1,400 Israelis, most of them civilians, torturing and maiming their victims in ways too cruel to recount. Hamad promised that 7 October was “just the first time, and there will be a second, a third, a fourth”. He was asked if Hamas was bent on Israel’s annihilation. “Yes, of course,” he replied.
It was as clear an answer as Israel could have hoped for as it seeks to explain why it cannot lay down its arms until Hamas is rendered incapable of doing again what it did four weeks ago, arguing that Israel should be granted as much leeway as the US (and UK) granted themselves when they set about the destruction of Isis.
To me, it does not seem that any greater gift could be given to Israel…this is mystifying to me. Sure people make mistakes, allow a slip of the tongue…but what am I missing here? This was said on live television so…the statement is difficult to deny or even walk back.
This is so outlandishly wrong-footed I don’t quite know what to say? (maybe it is an invite to genocide?)
I have previously laid out my no-goes, No Right of Return, No East Jerusalem as a capitol, Protection of Jordan River Water Rights, No Military….I know this sounds like less than sovereignty, I know, I admit it…but we don’t have time TL’DR, 10,000 words as to why this is my position.
The above Hamas statement seems insane to me…and I am moderately, a little bit, within my parameters, sympathetic to Palestinians…I just don’t get it. Please help. Best Wishes, Traveller
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
In WWI, what broke the “stalemate” in Italy and the Western Front was better tactics.
The Central Powers had the “stormtroopers” but lacked the manpower and mobility to defeat the Allie’s “defense in depth”.
The Allies utilized the walking barrage, where in the first trench line was taken easily and as the barrage lifted at the second trench line, the soldiers emerging from their shelters to rush forward in defense found the second line trenches already under Allied control. And the Allies could rinse and repeat with fresh units, within a day or two.
Ukraine is going into winter. It will be a slog, it already is in the South, but they are still making gains. In the North, Ruzzia has already lost the equivalent of a WWII “Front” in failed assaults.
Zalushni is careful to not use the word “stalemate”.
YY_Sima Qian
@Traveller: Hamas & the ultra-right wing government in Israel are each other’s greatest gifts, deliberately so. If you allow them to set the terms for the future of Israel & Palestine, both will end up in ruins.
Israel is justified in trying to destroy or at least severely degrade Hamas in the wake of 10/7 barbarity. It is not justified in carrying out war crimes or crimes against humanity (such as ethnic cleansing) in pursuit of those goals, nor is it entitled to western aid or support if such aid are used in the commission of war crimes, nor is it entitled to be shielded from international censure for committing war crimes.
After (& before) destroying or severely degrading Hamas, Israel still needs to come to terms how its own policies & actions toward the Palestinians in Gaza & the West Bank are sustaining support for (or at least tolerance of) Hamas or an equally hostile successor. Unless you believe that the millions of Palestinians are somehow unique among human beings, that their primary motivation in life is to “drive all of the Jews to the sea”, & not better & more prosperous lives for their children.
Israel remains by far the dominant power over the Palestinians, Hamas is incapable of posing an existential threat to Israel no matter how many barbarous raids it claims to promise.
Guaranteed Israeli water rights to the Jordan River, no Palestinian Right of Return to Israeli territory, no Palestinian military, are feasible terms of a peace deal. Right now it is Israel that has a chokehold over Palestinian communities’ access to water. It is the IDF that is imposing its authority over the West Bank akin to that of a colonial power, acquiescing if not enabling daily acts of settler violence. I really don’t understand the objection to the State of Palestine having East Jerusalem as its capital.
Martin
@Traveller:
I think you’re missing two things:
Now, the cost of this strategy is the lives of Palestinian civilians. They’re the currency in which this entire situations is being paid by both sides. At the same time Israel is offering no better avenues.
So I don’t see how it matters whether or not Hamas wants the destruction of Israel. That’s not the sort of thing that Israel should be responding to. They should be responding to what actually happens and what can happen. And they should be responding in a way that advance Israels goals, and that’s a much more interesting question – what is Israel’s vision for an end state here? Because it’s not a 1-state or a 2-state solution. It appears to be annexation. That’s been stated to some degree from time to time, and their actions in support of settlements support that.
My fear here is that Israel is taking this bait and will reveal that end state fairly plainly to the world – by annexing northern Gaza. IDF has now cut off Gaza City from the rest of Gaza and appear to be moving inward. If they set up a security line south of Gaza City and start toward a permanent occupation of Gaza City, then everyone will be clear on Israels goals here. On the international stage, Hamas expression they want the destruction of Israel (something they don’t have the means to accomplish) will be ignored relative to Israels *actual* destruction of Gaza (something they do have the means to accomplish, and will to some degree have accomplished). What’s revealed isn’t Hamas’ true goal, but Israels.
And this is a terrible outcome, not just for Israel as a nation but anyone who is Jewish, because we know these things will be conflated. I suspect Israels support from the US populace is already lost. It might take a while for the generational die-off to finally swing the result, but I suspect Israel has lost support from the vast majority of millennial/zoomers in the US, and their parents are only going to live so long.
Martin
@Jay: I’m encouraged by what Adam posted in the last few days that included a reflection by Ukrainian leadership on what they got wrong. Just understanding what’s not working and why goes a long way.
Citizen Alan
It is not to me. Hamas and the Netanyahu coalition are mutually parasitic and both are enthralled by Russia. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if both Bibi and the Hamas leadership were under orders from the Kremlin to shock the world with their mutual brutality so as to take the world’s eyes off of Ukraine.
ColoradoGuy
It is striking there are three religious fanatics working to Moscow’s advantage: Hamas leadership, Bibi and his settler pals, and Mike Johnson, of Dominionist persuasion, and his fellow travelers. And all at the same time, too.
Coincidence, or not? Does the FSB have that scope and reach?
YY_Sima Qian
Twitter post from Gregg Carlstom (Middle East correspondent for the Economist, worth following in addition to Shashank Joshi):
Foreign Policy reporting dissection in the ranks at USAID toward Biden Administration’s policy of “hugging Israel tightly”, Twitter thread by its National Security reporter Robbie Gramer:
Huffington Post reporting the resignation of a State Department over the Biden Administration’s carte blanche approach of supplying weapons to Israel for its military action in Gaza:
I have said it before, the Biden Administration deserves some credit for reining in some of the most extreme Israeli actions in Gaza, such resuming water supply, resuming a trickle of humanitarian aid, resuming internet access, & delaying the start of the ground invasion, presumably as the result of “hugging Israel close”. However, the impact of these harm reduction affords are undermined by the immense destruction to civilian infrastructure that the IDF’s bombing campaign has already wreaked, & the continued lack of electricity. & by hugging Israel close, giving the impression of unconditional support, refusing to use its immense leverage to dissuade Israel from committing war crimes, refusing to place limits on how Israel uses the U.S. supplied weaponry, the U.S. will be seen as complicit in Israeli actions in the eyes of most of the world. The same applies to certain other Western governments, such as Germany.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: I suspect the drone is that technology but that Ukraine maybe has not yet figured out the way to get the breakthrough from it.
I’m not an expert on disruption in warfare, but in terms of business it doesn’t work the way people conventionally think. Usually a disruptive technology, the technology is just a catalyst. The disruption is a disruption in business model – the tech enables the way you sell the product to the consumer, or how you sell services on top of it, etc.
As such, the incumbent has developed a mature, well entrenched business model that serves as a moat that competitors can’t breach, but the technology allows for a completely new business model that the incumbent is too big and too wedded to their existing model to adapt to. Things that had been assets suddenly become liabilities because they stop being useful to compete with the startups, and new assets are needed but the company has usually financed their way into a corner that they can’t afford to get out of.
If I were to translate this to warfare, you’d look at Russia’s historic strengths, at how they organize and deploy war, and you’d present a sufficiently different way to organize and deploy that favors what Russia is bad at and makes what Russia is good at not useful. And I think to a decent degree, they’ve been doing that – and I think drones have been central to that effort, but maybe they haven’t quite find the role/scale that unlocks the solution. And it’s possible that the equipment NATO is providing is sending them a little bit in the wrong direction, because fighting NATO is what Russia was preparing to do. I don’t mean they shouldn’t use NATO gear or that we shouldn’t send them all we can, but that using that gear the way NATO envisioned it being used is maybe the wrong answer.
One pattern that seems to emerge is this pendulum of size vs scale. You build to prepare for large threats – big bombers, etc. and you counter that with small/fast – smaller supersonic bombers in large numbers – and back and forth. This was a notable inflection in WWII where the battleship was rendered almost useless because everything shifted to fast, agile aircraft. So I think the disruption is here and will be recognized in the future, but hasn’t quite found its full potential.
Medicine Man
@Jay: Thank you for your perspective, Jay.
Martin
@YY_Sima Qian: I think the problem is that we support the concept of Israel, but take issue with the current implementation. That can be a difficult line to walk when the concept doesn’t exactly have universal support.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: What you say about disruption in business & industries is absolutely true, we are seeing exactly such a disruption in EVs over ICEs, which renders the legacy car makers at a huge disadvantage. Some of the latter ones will either fail or no longer be independent in 5 years time.
Drones are highly vulnerable to disruptions in the electromagnetic spectrum, unless they are highly autonomous. I personally do not see them as a disruptive change that will confer any side a huge advantage to any side for long. The entry barrier for the cheap civilian drones that is ubiquitous in Ukraine is not high (their use was pioneered by ISIS at Mosul in 2016). The entry barrier to their countermeasures are not that much higher. As I wrote in a comment couple of days ago, in this kind of contest the countries that have large, expansive & vertically integrated electronics/microelectronics industries will have an advantage.
For highly automated drones w/ AGI, that can carry out complex tasks & rapidly react to changes circumstances, have long endurance & can be deployed at scale, that entry barrier is much higher. However, I think we are a long ways from that kind of AGI being used for warfare.
YY_Sima Qian
@Martin: Seriously, though, how many countries in this world are committed to the destruction of Israel? Iran and who else? Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas combined cannot threaten Israel’s existence. Only a nuclear armed Iran can, at the cost of its own destruction. I think even the Mullahs in Iran value their continued rule much more than destruction of Israel.
The way Western countries treat Israel w/ kid gloves is pretty unique in international relations, & this wasn’t always the case, even at a time when Israel’s existence was much more precarious, when there were many more states resolutely opposed to Israel’s existence. Perpetually shielding Israel from the costs & consequences of its choices is not necessarily to Israel’s long term benefit.
Traveller
I would like to thank everyone who responded with insight and intelligence on my query regarding Hamas and Israel. I am still not sure I agree with all the other positions presented, but smart always makes one think.
I will add two quick addendums: , 1st, the terrible bombing destruction of Gaza City does have some beneficial effects, certainly in the Middle East. Beirut, and especially in reference to Hezbollah, they surly do not want to see that city destroyed again as it was in 2006.
In closing, I do have a vision for Gaza, but it is no different in my vision that I had back in 2000 or 1990 or 1970. I have lived with this damn conflict my entire life and at many levels I’m just sick of it.
My vision for Gaza post war is simple…it should become an open and free society facing on the beautiful Mediterranean Sea. I recognize that none of my liberal values would be respected in Gaza as it currently stands, and in fact I would probably be put to death. This fuels some of my animus toward Hamas.
Be that as it may, I have done some free diving and snorkeling near that portion of the Mediterranean and it can be so much fun. It is not anything like Red Sea diving, but still it is very very pleasant. If Gaza were to turn itself to hotels and restaurants and a broad grand corniche as opposed to tunnels and war footing, I still say that Gaza has the capacity to become a lovely place, open and visited by all levels of Peoples from the Arab world. That is my vision and entirely doable if it would turn its face away from war. Please see attached link to the war zone article and if you scroll down just a little bit there’s a great image of Israeli armor moving across that beachfront. You will just have to take my word for it, it is very nice and with appropriate sea breaks and what-not’s it could be turned into quasi paradisaical. (I can dream can’t I?…lol) Best Wishes, Traveller
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/israel-gaza-update-merkava-tanks-roll-down-gaza-beach
YY_Sima Qian
Sanshank Joshi has a Twitter thread that summarizes an article on the Carnegie Endowment’s website, speculating on what the “day after” Israel’s military operation in Gaza might look like:
Nelle
Thank you, Adam, and thank you to those who comment. I appreciate the content and the respectful and intelligent engagement here.
Bill Arnold
@YY_Sima Qian:
Thanks for the link(s) to the piece by Nathan Brown.
It is worth a read, and maybe a re-read; it is relentless.
Here’s a formal link just for the record.
There Might Be No Day After in Gaza – As the war continues, deterioration at the level of governance, security, and public order will likely be deepened by the absence of a political horizon, diplomatic process, or future prospects. (NATHAN J. BROWN, NOVEMBER 03, 2023, “a professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University”)
Here’s (another) quote:
Another Scott
@Traveller: I try to look beyond the inflammatory statements.
Reuters.com (from 11/3):
I heard a story a week or two ago saying that it may also be the case that Hamas does not have all the captives. Other armed groups outside of Hamas seemed to participate in the 10/7 attack and may have grabbed some people on their own.
True? No idea, but we should always remember that people on the other side are not monolithic and they have their own internal battles. The maximalist rhetoric probably has little to do with the way this war will actually end.
Condolences, peace, and comfort to the innocents.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Bill Arnold: Well, the U.S. certainly found out what happens if one dismisses at one stroke the entire bureaucracy, civil service, police & emergency services due to perceived ties to the previous regime. However, Iraq was a sovereign state that the U.S. wanted to return to a sovereign state status (albeit a friendly client), Gaza is a de facto statelet that Israel does not want to take responsibility for, but also may not want to give meaningful autonomy to (lest another Hamas emerge to take power) let alone sovereignty.
Another Scott
@Martin:
I had the same immediate image on first hearing the news that the IDF ordered people to move south. “They aren’t really stupid enough to try to occupy and annex half of Gaza, are they??”
What could be a greater gift to Israel’s enemies?? Can’t they look even a few days ahead??
AFAIK, Bibi still hasn’t answered what comes after “destroying Hamas”. Maybe he figures as long as he keeps the war going, he’ll be able to stay in power and out of jail, no matter how long the war takes…
This whole invasion thing seems extremely stupid for Israel’s strategic future. I hope the “war cabinet” starts to look ahead, and beyond Bibi.
But, we’ll see. :-/
Peace and safety to the innocents.
Cheers,
Scott.
YY_Sima Qian
@Another Scott: We know from reporting on 10/7 that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad also participated in the assault, and a large number of civilians (armed & otherwise) went along for the thrill. Videos shot by Gazans during the attacks also show obvious Hamas fighters mixed w/ other militants, as well as civilians, & coordination among the groups was loose to say the least once in Israel.
Another Scott
KyivIndependent.com:
More at the link.
Cheers,
Scott.
Traveller
The problem of, “I.” As I look over this thread I, (there is that damned Subjective Pronoun again), see again and again that this is all “I,” I see this, I think this, I have this opinion….there seems to be little “They or Them.”
This is a problem. Is this true in everything I write or say? Even when my mind tries to reach out, beyond myself, “I,” am still tripped up by…myself, my rooted, “I.nes.” “I,” don’t think this is true about everything…but here, maybe personal experiences run rampant, run riot with…the internal “Subjective.”
This rightfully gives me pause. Best Wishes, Traveller
Another Scott
@Traveller: In my case, ;-), I have enough trouble expressing my own thoughts – I wouldn’t want to get out of the boat to try to speak for others.
A good mantra to remember, I think, is: “don’t punch down”. It’s a good reminder in all kinds of areas of human relations.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Traveller
@Another Scott: Hummm, that’s very interesting! Getting out of the boat….trying to speak for others? I shall ponder this, (is this where I want to go!??!)…very thoughtful idea of yours. Thanks back to you. Best Wishes, Traveller
Will
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