Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Cancel the cowardly Times and Post and set up an equivalent monthly donation to ProPublica.

They were going to turn on one another at some point. It was inevitable.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

“I was told there would be no fact checking.”

I desperately hope that, yet again, i am wrong.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

The arc of the moral universe does not bend itself. it is up to us to bend it.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

T R E 4 5 O N

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

He really is that stupid.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 632: The Left Bank of the Dnipro!

War for Ukraine Day 632: The Left Bank of the Dnipro!

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Just a quick housekeeping note: There are a lot of videos from the axes of contact between the Ukrainians and the Russians bouncing around social media. I’m not ignoring them, but I’m not posting them because the vast majority seem to have graphic imagery of Russian wounded or killed in action.

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainian forces have established several fortified bridgeheads on the Russian-occupied left bank of the Dnipro river in their most significant territorial advance for weeks in their otherwise stalled counteroffensive.

Ukraine’s military confirmed the advances in a statement on Friday without naming where they were.

“The Ukrainian marines, in co-operation with other units of the defence forces, managed to gain a foothold on several bridgeheads,” read the statement.

Russia also acknowledged the Ukrainian presence for the first time. Vladimir Saldo, the Moscow-appointed governor of Russian-occupied Kherson province, said on Telegram that Ukrainian forces were in one area, near the village of Krynky — 18 miles north-east of Kherson city.

A western official said on Thursday that Ukraine had moved “elements of three brigades” to the Russian-occupied east bank of the river, and confirmed reports last week by Russian military bloggers that Ukraine has moved some vehicles across.

A brigade typically numbers 2,000 to 5,000 soldiers but the official said the Ukrainian contingent probably consisted of “hundreds”.

The western official said Russian forces had not been able to push them back and the Ukrainians had established a “significant foothold” in the area.

Much more at the Link!

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Actively progressing with the United States on joint arms production – address by the President of Ukraine

17 November 2023 – 19:14

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today, I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting, with a detailed report from the Minister of Defense on the upcoming year, the provision of defense forces. Every direction and aspect – ammunition, weapons, equipment, and accoutrements. What is currently in short supply and what objectively needs to be increased, taking into account plans of our active actions. The Minister of Strategic Industries reported on our own production of weapons and ammunition – the goal of increasing production is being achieved. This is crucial, and I am grateful to all the workers in our defense industry, as well as our partners who assist. We also discussed the implementation of the Ukrainian missile program, initiated in 2021. Everyone can see that its results are becoming more long-range and favorable for Ukraine each year, and unpleasant for the enemy, as it should be. There will be even more results.

By the way, we are actively progressing with the United States on joint arms production. During my visit to Washington, President Biden and I agreed on specific steps we can take together. This will undoubtedly strengthen both Americans and Ukrainians, as well as our partners. Joint production always enhances capabilities. In recent days, during negotiations involving Andriy Yermak and our government team, we discussed the specifics. In December of this year, a special conference involving Ukrainian and American industries, government officials, and other state actors will take place – everyone involved in organizing our defense. We are preparing a significant event, an extension of the Defense Industries Forum that took place in September. Now, it’s a forum in Washington and corresponding work on armaments in both Ukraine and the United States. I thank the United States – President Biden, his team, and Congress – both parties that support us. I also want to especially acknowledge U.S. defense companies and partners in Europe – all those who genuinely fill the concept of defending freedom with substance. During these times, we all need to be as effective as possible so that the lifetime of our children and grandchildren is not stolen by war.

Today, there is also good news regarding defense packages for our soldiers – Finland has made a decision on a new package. Thank you for this. We have already received 20 support packages from Finland. All of them strengthen not only us but the entire eastern flank of Europe. Because when Ukraine is strong and independent, all of Europe can feel protected from Russian aggression.

Important reports were presented at the Staff meeting regarding the situation on specific frontlines: Donetsk, Kharkiv, the southern directions. Reports were given by the Commander-in-Chief and Generals Syrsky, Tarnavsky, Moskaliov, and Sodol. I thank every one of our soldiers!

Today, I issued a separate instruction to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff regarding responding to the carriers of ‘Kinzhals’ that disrupt our country for hours due to air alerts. Our air defense capabilities and overall readiness for missile threats allow us to modernize our response somewhat – without unnecessary interruptions to the country. This is important for millions of our people. I expect corresponding proposals.

And one more thing.

I started today with a special meeting with the Minister of Finance and government officials responsible for the education sector. Many sensitive issues, and millions of Ukrainian students are awaiting answers. This includes resources for scholarships and specific details about innovations in higher education. We also discussed everything necessary to strengthen vocational education in Ukraine. It was all very concrete, just as it should be on Students’ Day. Of course, it would be right that most of what we discussed will be presented by the Minister of Education. Good things. We guarantee scholarships for students and are exploring opportunities to increase them. We will find resources for the reconstruction of universities damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. Today, I visited one of the Ukrainian universities – Mariupol State University. It has been relocated to Kyiv and is working. Importantly, it preserves faith in Ukraine, in our people, and in the belief that Ukraine will be free – all of Ukraine. I spoke with the students. Thank you for your sincerity and energy. I wish all our Ukrainian students to be able to realize themselves in Ukraine, for Ukraine, absolutely dignified, modern, and beneficial to themselves and the country.

To bring victory in this war, ensure security, and provide as much as possible protection to our people and our state… I thank everyone who fights and works for this. For our people. For our independence.

Glory to Ukraine!

From ABC News:

In a rare admission, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone public about the reduction in the supply of artillery shells to Ukraine, telling reporters that deliveries of the munitions have “really slowed down.”

The 155mm artillery shells are arguably the most important munition for Ukraine in its war with Russia.. Ukraine has always been outmatched by Russia’s superior artillery firepower, however this imbalance, which is key on the battlefield, is set to get worse.

In a briefing on Thursday, Western officials agreed with an estimate, attributed to Ukrainian officials, that Russia currently produces around a million artillery shells a day.

U.S. arms companies are ramping up production. However, according to The Economist, U.S. output of 155 mm shells in 2025 “is likely to be lower than that of Russia in 2024.”

European efforts to try and address the problem also appear to be falling short.

The German Defense Minister earlier this week warned that the European Union would fail to meet its pledge of providing a million rounds to Ukraine by March 2024.

Any further reduction of ammunition supplies to Ukrainian forces would limit Ukrainian troops’ ability to mount offensive operations as well as increase pressure on areas of the frontline where Russia is on the offensive.

Western officials on Thursday also conceded they were “concerned” about the supply of artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The officials claimed they had “always been concerned,” but it was a change in tone on the topic, compared to previous briefings.

President Zelenskyy, in comments to journalists Thursday said “warehouses are empty” in allied nations which have been supplying Ukraine with the shells.

Israel’s war in Gaza and tensions on its northern border with Lebanon have also put pressure on U.S. stocks, with some supplies of artillery shells, which were designated for Ukraine in recent weeks, being diverted to Israel.

In a reference to the increased pressure on production and supply of the munitions, Zelenskyy said “everyone is fighting” for stockpiles.

It is true that, for months, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly warned that their ability to fire artillery shells has always been way lower than their Russian enemy.

And as the war has dragged on, the supply of 155mm shells to Ukraine inevitably has come under greater pressure, with the U.S. calling on other allies, namely South Korea to help out.

However, Zelenskyy’s warning comes amid the row in Congress over continuing funding for the war in Ukraine.

If the Biden Administration cannot keep military aid flowing to Ukraine, the situation could get a lot worse.

Again, and I’m unfortunately sure that I’ll be back to this topic sooner rather than later, almost two years into Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion and we are still failing. That the US defense industrial base has not been put on a war footing 21 months into this part of the world war we’ve been in for years is both strategic malpractice and unacceptable. At some point it would make sense for the Biden administration to adopt John Wesley’s maxim: “I am always haste, I am never in a hurry.”

Holland:

Finland:

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Kherson Oblast:

Solodke, Donetsk Oblast:

Svatove:

Tatarigami has taken a deep dive into Russian rotary wing operations. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App.

2/ Based on acquired Maxar images from November 1st, the Taganrog airbase hosted at least 4 operational Ka-52 helicopters on its tarmac. The surrounding activity indicates their use, a fact further supported by their absence in earlier shots.Image
3/ The Buturlinovka Airbase accommodates a minimum of 5 Ka-52 helicopters. Although Helicopter #7 is not distinctly visible in this image, the next image includes a slightly older photo of the same helicopter at the same location for clarity.Image
4/ Identifying helicopters in high-resolution imagery (0.5 – 1m) can be challenging, but certain distinct characteristics help with recognition: fuselage length, two coaxial rotors, a shorter tail, and a unique frontal shape, among others.Image
5/ Zernograd airbase, the home of the 16th Army Aviation Brigade, currently houses approximately 8 additional Ka-52 helicopters.Image
6/ In these calculations, I excluded several Ka-52 helicopters undergoing repairs or maintenance, evident from the missing rotor blades. Additionally, for OPSEC reasons, I didn’t account for 2 more Ka-52 helicopters located at FARP.Image
7/ The scope of my analysis focuses on the operational Ka-52 helicopters on the frontlines. I didn’t add helicopters located in other regions of Russia, such as Central Russia and the Far East.Image
8/ With a 90% confidence level and error not exceeding 30%, presented evidence strongly indicates that Russia still maintains operational Ka-52 helicopters.Image
9/ Both the Ka-52 and numerous Mi-28 helicopters continue to pose a significant threat to Ukrainian forces along the frontline. Their ability to deploy LMUR and Vikhr missiles extends their reach, enabling them to engage targets beyond the range of SHORADImage
10/ Moving on to the next base, Rovenki Airbase, traditionally home to a substantial number of helicopters, has recently dispersed its helicopters in response to emerging threats, due to its proximity to the border.Image
11/ In October and early November, Rovenki Airbase accommodated more than three Ka-52 helicopters. I counted only three Ka-52 helicopters, excluding those with missing blades, as their operational status is hard to determineImage
12/ Kirovske Airbase in Crimea housed a total of 6 Ka-52 helicopters.Image
13/ Let’s assume that roughly 30% of the helicopters I’ve identified could be duplicates (the same helicopter at different locations and times), partially or fully inoperable, or mistakenly identified.Image
14/ Rounding gives us around 8 helicopters. Even assuming 8 were included wrongly, we still have 17 operational helicopters. Therefore, claims suggesting there are no or only a few functional Ka-52s are invalid.Image
15/ In summary, satellite evidence collectively indicates that Russia currently maintains a fleet of at least 25 operational Ka-52 helicopters, with the actual number likely much higher.Image

That’s enough for tonight.

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27Comments

  3. 3.

    Martin

    Where are those Ohio diner patrons clamoring for domestic manufacturing jobs? Aren’t artillery factories in salt of the earth places like Scranton, Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa, etc? Fucking sell this as a make-work program for swing states that will help our trade deficit. Why is this so hard?

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    I don’t even know what to say. Western nations have basically decided they’re okay with just letting Ukrainians die and putting their country at risk of being lost. I don’t allow myself to think it will be, but sometimes optimism is nigh impossible. No one in charge of these things will have any right to be sad if the situation gets worse and no right to be happy over Ukrainian advances. They haven’t earned either response.

    Fuck. I don’t even know. Here’s a Ukrainian raccoon getting some candy.

    Thank you as always, Adam. You must feel like Cassandra sometimes, but at least here on BJ, your work is appreciated and invaluable.

  5. 5.

    Anoniminous

    Haven’t been saying much since my anger at and contempt for the Biden Administration’s Israel and Ukraine policies have reached volcanic levels.

  8. 8.

    Bill Arnold

    This from the ABC news report seems false? “In a briefing on Thursday, Western officials agreed with an estimate, attributed to Ukrainian officials, that Russia currently produces around a million artillery shells a day.”
    Estimates seen in a quick google search seem to be 1 million shells per year for Russia (fewer 152mm), ramping up to 2 million per year. (ABC site still has that sentence as of a few minutes ago.)
    Russia’s usage rate seems to be like 7+ million per year so far in the this war.

  9. 9.

    Eolirin

    @AlaskaReader: There’s extreme hesitancy even from Democrats to declare Russia as being in direct conflict with the US, despite the active measures used to help put Trump in the White House. Without that declaration it’s hard to make the case for doing the things that need to be done.

    The Biden administration could much more rapidly fix the production issues even without congressional support by using the Defense Production Act. But they can’t do so in defense of Ukraine, only in defense of the US. By not laying the ground work for recognizing the invasion of Ukraine as part of a war against the US, many of the options that would be on the table are off the table. And that’s something that’s entirely in the administration’s hands.

    It doesn’t help that congress is paralyzed and that Republicans are actively undermining support for Ukraine. But they’re not the only problem.

  10. 10.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, things are going forward on support and sustainment. Defense.gov (from November 2):

    As the conflict in Ukraine surpassed its 600th day earlier this month, National Armaments Directors from more than 40 countries, the European Union and NATO gathered in Brussels, Belgium on October 20, 2023, under the auspices of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Meeting for the seventh time, the group was established to synchronize international efforts on industrial base and sustainment challenges in support of Ukraine.

    [ image ]

    In addition to updates on meeting near-term requirements for key capability areas—including ground-based, long-range fires; integrated air defense systems; air-to-ground capabilities; and sustainment—the session highlighted increasing focus on long-term support to Ukraine.

    “Since coming together, this group of National Armaments Directors has demonstrated a unique ability to drive meaningful action and get the Ukrainian armed forces the equipment they need to defend their sovereignty,” said Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment William LaPlante, who leads the forum. “But we know our work isn’t done yet as we assist Ukrainian efforts in building their future force to defend their citizens.”

    NADs are particularly focused on long-term sustainment support and industrial base resilience.

    “The innovation and resourcefulness the Ukrainians have demonstrated to keep equipment in the fight is nothing short of remarkable,” said Christopher Lowman, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Sustainment. “As the number of different systems and platforms donated continues to increase, employing a coordinated approach to sustaining them with our allies and partners will be critical for maximizing Ukraine’s combat power into the future.”

    Within the UDCG NAD forum, development of a long-term, doctrinal sustainment strategy for Ukraine is nearing completion. Aligned with NATO standards, the strategy will touch on everything from maintenance, repair, and overhaul of equipment; expansion of, and training for, logistics information technology systems; and availability of technical data packages for spare parts.

    […]

    This stuff is complicated, and lots and lots needs to be done beyond just shipping gear over to Lviv, of course.

    DefenseNews.com (from October 6):

    WASHINGTON — The U.S. Army said it awarded $1.5 billion in contracts to nine companies in the U.S., Canada, India and Poland to boost global production of 155mm artillery rounds.

    Over the last two weeks in September, the service finalized a flurry of contracts that “resourced each major component, material or required production process to maintain momentum for the goal of 80,000 projectiles per month by the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025,” it said in an Oct. 6 statement.

    Army officials have recently stated that 155mm artillery munition production will increase to 28,000 per month in October, which is double what the Army was producing at the start of the year. The plan is to build roughly 60,000 a month in FY24, reaching 80,000 by FY25. By FY26, the plan is to build 100,000 a month.

    The Army has sent more than 2 million 155mm rounds to Ukraine as that country fights off the Russian invasion which began in February 2022 ,and is working to replenish its stockpile.

    The service has already set in motion an expansion to its 155mm shell production from two facilities in Pennsylvania to another two facilities in Mesquite, Texas, and in Canada.

    The Army conducts the load, assemble and pack process at its Iowa Ammunition Plant, and plans to expand there as well along with other locations.

    […]

    Things are happening that we don’t hear much about.

    Thanks Adam, and everyone.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  11. 11.

    Bill Arnold

    @Another Scott:
    The USA also has a very large stockpile (millions) of 155mm cluster munitions. In varying degrees of reliability, but the Ukrainians probably don’t care much when using them against Russian fortifications or Russian assaults.

  16. 16.

    Andrya

    @Adam L Silverman:   Umm…  last time you baked with monk fruit crystals, didn’t the baked goods explode?   Please don’t put yourself or the dogs at risk!

    From your post October 30, 2022

    In this case I was trying to adapt a regular recipe into something I can eat on my current eating plan – no refined carbs, no sugar – and replaced the flour with almond flour, the sugar with monk fruit crystals, ans the butter with coconut oil. My cupcakes went a wee bit wild in the oven.

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Another Scott: The other important factor that makes this discussion of comparative artillery shell production rates a bit of a bedwetters’ festival is that Western artillery and its ammunition are in no way comparable to their Russian equivalents.

    Russian artillery accuracy is pathetic, basically good for reducing urban environments, but absolutely not up to the task of interdicting armor or infantry on the move. Western artillery, on the other hand is an almost one-shot-one-kill affair, at least by comparison to the Russian absurd shell wastage. An apples-to-apples comparison would necessarily have to include an efficacy factor of at least 5 (that is, 5 times more Russian shells-per-kill than the number of Ukrainian shells-per-kill).

    That factor is hard to estimate, and may indeed be much higher. Even at 5, it tells us that the West only needs to produce 20% as many shells as Russia to keep parity. And they are definitely producing more than that, and production will go up rather than down.

    The Ukrainians have every reason and right to holler for as much as they can get. Nonetheless the time of decisive Russian advantage in battlefield artillery is very definitely in the past. Journalists who just naively compare production shell-for-shell have no idea what they are talking about.

  18. 18.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Andrya: That was the coconut oil combined with the shape of the pan. I tried to adapt the recipe I was using for brownies for cake donuts. I have silicone donut molds. I think it was a combination of the flash point of the coconut oil with the shape of the molds. When I use that recipe just for brownies, there’s never an issue. Made a batch about two weeks ago. So I expect this will be fine.

  19. 19.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

    Thank you, Adam, as always for your time and effort to keep us informed. I am not sure if this has been discusses, in which case I missed it. Given China’s move to improve relations with the US, could we see China change the nature of its support for Russia?

  24. 24.

    tokyocali (formerly tokyo ex-pat)

    @Adam L Silverman: Sorry for the delay in replying, but thank you for the response. I was hoping the thaw might lead to some reevaluation on China’s part as to how much they wish to support Russia. Still, given where I’m located, better relations with China than they are now would ease some of the jitteriness that has prevailed recently.

  26. 26.

    way2blue

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Ah.  I’ve been experimenting with allulose+monk fruit crystals in making shortbread.  Not as strict as you though.  Half cane sugar; half sugar-free ‘sugar.  Early Bird has finely ground whole wheat flours that work well; plus a little rice flour for lightness…

  27. 27.

    AlaskaReader

    @Eolirin: I believe this already clearly identifies the ‘threat’ to our national defense interests.

    Congressional support, while preferable, isn’t required.

Comments are closed.