Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

’Where will you hide, Roberts, the laws all being flat?’

Let me file that under fuck it.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

Humiliatingly small and eclipsed by the derision of millions.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

The real work of an opposition party is to hold the people in power accountable.

In after Baud. Damn.

Human rights are not a matter of opinion!

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

This country desperately needs a functioning fourth estate.

If America since Jan 2025 hasn’t broken your heart, you haven’t loved her enough.

Fight them, without becoming them!

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

The lights are all blinking red.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 633: Send!

War for Ukraine Day 633: Send!

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A Ukrainian sniper has now set the record for longest kill shot. The video is blurry because of the distance, but I’m going to put the warning up just to be safe.

WARNING!! WARNING!! Graphic Video!! WARNING!! WARNING!!

ALL CLEAR!!

Russia also continues its nighttime bombardment of civilian targets in Ukraine.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

More pressure on those who assist Russian terror, we will leave no connection of these people with Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 November 2023 – 20:40

I wish good health to all Ukrainians!

The main points for today.

First, once again, I congratulate all Ukrainian sergeants and warrant officers on their professional day! I thank every sergeant and warrant officer who genuinely cares for the soldiers, supports the fighting spirit in their units, and knows how to be leaders for the troops. During the full-scale war, over 13,000 sergeants have been honored with state awards. Yesterday, I signed a decree to award another hundred Ukrainian sergeants – the best, the strongest. I am proud of you all.

Second, for today. Several decisions on sanctions of the National Security and Defense Council have been put into effect. Almost 40 Russian legal entities and over 100 individuals, including those involved in the kidnapping and deportation of Ukrainian children from the occupied territory. Also, individuals who, in various ways, assist Russian terror against Ukraine. We are increasing the pressure of our state on them. Each of them must be accountable for what they have done, and we will not leave any connection of these people with Ukraine.

Third, I want to acknowledge the countries that announced new assistance to our state this week. Germany, Finland, Lithuania – thank you for the new defense packages. Estonia – over the next few years, they will increase security investments in the production of ammunition. And this is important. Norway and the United Kingdom – decisions have been made on new humanitarian packages for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Thank you. We are already preparing new steps – security steps – in the coming weeks. This includes strengthening air defense.

Another thing. Last night, almost 30 ‘Shaheds’ were destroyed in our sky. I thank all the soldiers of mobile fire groups, the aviation of our Air Force, and the anti-aircraft missile troops. Your accuracy, guys, is literally life for Ukraine. As winter approaches, there will be more Russian attempts to make the strikes more powerful. It is crucial for all of us in Ukraine to be one hundred percent effective. Despite all the difficulties. Despite all the fatigue. Despite any attempts to weaken Ukraine. Respect and glory to everyone who fights for the country, everyone who helps and works to ensure that Ukraine can defend and protect its independence. It depends on everyone, on everyone who is resilient. On all who are effective. On each and every one who can add and adds strength and perspective to Ukraine. Please use every opportunity to strengthen the state.

Glory to Ukraine!

Lord, guard and guide the men fly
Through the great spaces in the sky.
Be with them always in the air,
In darkening storms or sunlight fair;
Oh, hear us when we lift our prayer,
For those in peril in the air!
Mary C. D. Hamilton (1915)

Krynky, Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Crimea:

Yeah so that TOS-1 destruction footage from yesterday, DeepState says it was destroyed in Krynky. This bitch was brought up to shell the defender positions on the left bank. There was footage.

Now it’s no more, after meeting with (apparently) the Baba Yaga agridrone.

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18096

Avdiivka:

Tokmak:

Frontline life in Tokmak direction. A few months back, I was a recon UAV pilot. Here’s a special video — our first TOR-2M Russian anti-aircraft system takedown. A Switchblade 600 hit it, and I was adjusting fire with a Shark drone from Ukrspecsystems. This footage captures the moment.

It was more than military teamwork — it was a collaboration of technicians too. Our Shark and the American Switchblade in action. 🤝 Our manufacturers get frontline needs, delivering quality products for successful combat. Proof in this video.

Now, I’m a part of the team too, but working to boost Ukrainian manufacturers, aiming for threats on our land. 🇺🇦 Glory to Ukraine! #FrontlineLife #UkraineStrong #TechInAction

Finland:

Reuters has the details: (emphasis mine)

HELSINKI, Nov 16 (Reuters) – Finland will close four of the nine crossing points on its border with Russia on Saturday to stem a flow of asylum seekers to the Nordic nation, Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Thursday.

Neighbouring Norway, which shares a border with Russia in the Arctic, is also ready to close its border at short notice if necessary, Norwegian Justice Minister Emilie Enger Mehl said.

Finland’s president said on Wednesday a rise in the number of asylum applicants arriving on the eastern border appeared to be Russian revenge for Finland’s defence cooperation with the United States, an assertion dismissed by Moscow.

Finland, a European Union country whose accession to the NATO alliance this year after decades of non-alignment angered Moscow, shares a 1,340-km (833-mile) border with Russia that also serves as the EU’s external border.

“Russia’s instrumentalisation of migrants is shameful. I fully support the measures taken by Finland,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on social media, thanking the Finnish Border Guards “for protecting our European borders”.

The four crossings, all in southeastern Finland, are normally the busiest points of travel between the two countries.

“The government has today decided that Finland will close some eastern border crossing points. The eastern border for that part will close on the night between Friday and Saturday,” Orpo told a press conference.

Dozens of asylum seekers from countries such as Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and Syria have arrived each day this week via Russia, Finland’s border guards have said, after fewer than one per day on average earlier in the autumn.

The accumulated number of arrivals since September stands at 280 asylum seekers, the Border Guard Authority said on Thursday.

Asylum seekers arriving via Russia will from Saturday be allowed to hand in their applications only at two northern border crossings, the government said.

Some 3,000 people use Finland’s southeastern border crossings on a daily basis. Orpo said he understood the closures would make everyday life more difficult for people allowed to travel between Finland and Russia.

Making clear Finland would reverse course if the asylum arrivals ended, Orpo said: “Our message is strong, we want this phenomenon to end so we can continue the border traffic like we have until now.”

Over 1,200 asylum seekers, mostly Syrians, arrived in Norway from Russia during a sudden influx in 2015.

“We’re following the situation closely and we may shut the border at short notice if needed,” Mehl told NTB new agency.

More at the link.

I cannot count how many times I’ve described this part of Putin’s non-kinetic strategy as he wages his world war. But what the Finns are dealing with, just as they did in 2015 along with many other EU member states, is Putin creating a refugee crisis in the Middle East and Africa and then drive those refugees to the EU border states. The point of all this is to overwhelm their asylum and welfare systems, create economic and social disruptions, drive up hostility/negative sentiment to the refugees while also driving up positive sentiment for the Putin aligned/proxy isolationist and neo-fascist parties in each of these EU states. The intention is that they will then be able to leverage these changes in sentiment for electoral gains in order to try to recreate the Brexit process within other EU member states. At least Finland’s leadership and the EU Commission’s have recognized this strategy of war with other means.

Moscow:

 

The Russians have taken another American journalist hostage by arresting them. They’ve been holding Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) journalist Alsu Kurmasheva for a month now:

Today marks one month of Alsu’s unjust detention in Russia. An American citizen, Alsu is imprisoned on absurd charges of not registering as a “foreign agent.” Alsu’s captors tell her they have notified the United States of her arrest but received no reaction. The U.S. State Department says Russian authorities have not yet responded to its request for consular access. Alsu has not been convicted; she is accused of a non-violent offense. Yet, she is held in pretrial detention only because she’s a U.S. citizen and an
@RFERL journalist. Alsu is denied visits or phone calls with family members and is confined to a cold prison cell, sleeping with a bottle of warm water between her legs.

Alsu’s arrest represents the most egregious use of Russia’s “foreign agent” laws against a journalist. Her politically motivated detention has been condemned by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, the United States, Canada, the Czech Republic, France, Poland, Sweden, the EU, the OSCE, and many international human rights and media freedom organizations. But Russia remains deaf to the numerous calls for Alsu’s release.

Alsu’s family misses her very much. She has never harmed a soul and is certainly no criminal. Alsu is a loving mother, a selfless friend, and a devoted enthusiast of her culture and language. Her imprisonment is wrongful, and she deserves to be released immediately. Let her return to her family. #FreeAlsu

 

For those of you curious as to the ammunition that Russia is sourcing from the DPRK, I am sorry to tell you it isn’t very good.

When news broke out that North Korea was delivering a million artillery shells to Russia, my first thought was how good the quality would be of those shells. We have the first statements relating to this questions and the answer is that they are of poor quality. In some cases the dimensions of the munitions was so much off the acceptable levels that it led to the explosion of the barrel.

Full podcast: https://spotify.link/a/key_live_pfaVQo61xda7Zq1zC1ca3igayxarnljw

#Ukraine #Northkorea

That’s enough for tonight.

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There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

34Comments

  1. 1.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    Wow! I had to translate 3800 meters and it is 2.36 miles. At that distance I think the sniper has to adjust for the curvature of the earth, for goodness sake. Absolutely amazing.

    And fuck Putin for the terrible continued bombardment of civilians

    ETA: Frist! (apologies for those offended by this)

    ETA2: His rifle is also amazing!

  2. 2.

    CarolPW

    The sound the bandura makes is astonishing! It’s like playing the love child of a guitar and a harp. Lovely. I also enjoyed the booms very much.

  5. 5.

    wjca

    If low quality North Korean ammo is exploding in the barrel, and presumably doing damage in some cases, does that mean that Russia will now look to the North Koreans for (possibly equally low quality) replacement barrels?   Somehow this doesn’t feel like a sustainable approach.

  6. 6.

    Yutsano

    I had to share that bandura video with a bunch of musicians I know. I hope they found it as stunning as I did. May the bandura continue to be played until the end of all our days. And may that be long into the future.

  7. 7.

    Gin & Tonic

    @CarolPW: The bandura isn’t very loud, though, so it’s not really an ideal solo instrument. A popular format is for a large group of them, say 20-40, played in a choral fashion. Plenty of that on YouTube, which I can’t link to right now.

  8. 8.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    OSINT has shown that RuZZia has been stripping out barrels and breech blocks for a while now out of their 10’s of thousands of mothballed arty pieces. They are not going to run out anytime soon.

  11. 11.

    Alison Rose

    an assertion dismissed by Moscow

    Which means it is 110% true.

    I tried to toss a crumpled up piece of paper into a wastebasket about five feet from me, and I missed. So, sadly, I will never become a sniper.

    That rendition of Nothing Else Matters is beautiful! My oldest brother is a huge Metallica fan, so I’m definitely going to send him that.

    For our Ukrainian speakers: Zelenskyy always posts two versions of his nightly address on FB, the second one with English subtitles. On the non-subtitled video, the post is written in Ukrainian, and on the other one in English. When the post is in Ukrainian, FB does its auto-translation which usually mucks it up a bit. On today’s, I saw that it translated “Shaheds”, written in his post as шахедів, to “martyrs”. When I copied шахедів into Google translate, it gave me Shahedov, which is pretty close. And when I put “martyr” into the English side, Google gave me мученик. Any idea why FB’s bot would read the word from Zelenskyy’s post as “martyrs”? Is it just real dumb?

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  12. 12.

    Bill Arnold

    Re the Baba Yaga drone that Ukraine has been using for (reportedly) about 5 months (the name is what Russians call it):
    Baba Yaga Drones Are Delivering Fear to Russian Occupiers in Ukraine (October 16, 2023)

    The Baba Yaga is a large 6-rotor drone used by the defenders of Ukraine to bomb the positions of the Russian occupiers. Recently, the Ukrainians have been testing the Baba Yaga drone with new bombs. It can be used in daylight, but works best at night using thermal imaging cameras – this drone is less noticeable in the darkness.
    However, it can be quite noisy. That noise acts as a kind of psychological weapon – the Russian occupiers who will survive the war will have nightmares about that sound for a long time.
    The Ukrainian military says that the effect this drone has on the Russian positions is “stunning”: “It is death on the wings of the night.” The Baba Yaga typically drops mortar mines, grenades, or explosive charges designed specifically for this drone. It can carry four 82 mm or two 120 mm mortar mines.

    Six rotors. A hexad, of sorts; I’ll accept it. “Hexapodia as the key insight”
    (Various versions of Baba Yaga’s walking hut have from 1 to 4 chicken legs.)

  14. 14.

    Ben Vernia

    Has anyone published an analysis of Russia’s contribution to the refugee crisis in Europe from the supply side? I.e., the effects of their actions in Syria, sub-Saharan Africa, and Libya, in driving people to Europe.

  15. 15.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Alison Rose: My extensive research (2 minutes on Google) shows me that “shaheed” is Arabic for “martyr.” Is this the origin of the name of the drone?

  21. 21.

    A woman from anywhere (formerly Mohagan)

    @Adam L Silverman: thanks for the link, Adam. And thanks, of course, for all the dedication and work you put into these posts. It is very appreciated.

  23. 23.

    rekoob

    We had an active discussion at today’s DC Meetup that encompassed much of Adam’s writings. From Ukraine/Russia to Israel/Palestine, we used his analyses to inform our conversations. We’re grateful for your insights and remember your observation that in many cases, the only way out is through.

  28. 28.

    Adam L Silverman

    @rekoob: That guy is making me look bad!

    Now I know why my ears were burning. Thank you for the kind words. You (all) are most welcome.

  29. 29.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Baud: No. The actual reporting makes it clear that Bibi has denied there is one and that our Special Envoy, Brett McGurk, is still trying to negotiate one. The NSC spokeswoman also just came out and denied their was an agreement.

    Screen grab of statement from National Security Council Spokeswoman stating there is no ceasefire for hostages.

  30. 30.

    Captain C

    @wjca:

    Well, it must be bad news for Biden somehow.

    FTFNYT Headline:  Biden Accords finally secure lasting Middle Eastern peace between all major powers in the region.  Here’s why that’s trouble for Joe Biden and Democrats…

  33. 33.

    lee

    Someone entered the data for that shot and the bullet drop for that distance is 200 meters. That makes me doubt the veracity of the claim.

  34. 34.

    Another Scott

    @lee: Why?  They would just have to account for the trajectory.

    If it fell 200 m under gravity, then it would take 6.4 seconds to do so.  If it took 5 seconds, then it would fall 122 meters.

    The shells are designed to go faster than a standard 0.50 cal bullet:

    Thanks to the use of ballistically superior bullets, the new 12.7x114HL cartridge also has a number of advantages over the 14.5x114mm cartridge. It has flatter trajectories, extended supersonic range and at longer distances, better retains energy and is less affected by the wind. According to the data published by MAYAK, the 750gr Hornady A-MAX bullet pushed by the 12.7x114HL cartridge to an MV of 1000 m/s (3280 fps) goes subsonic at about 3000 meters whereas the 988gr B-32 bullet of the 14.5x114mm cartridge also traveling at a muzzle velocity of 1000 m/s becomes subsonic at 2400 meters.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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