(Image by My Dog Sighs)
Both President Zelenskyy and Hungary’s elected dictator Victor Orban were in Argentina today for the inauguration of Argentina’s new hard libertarian president. Words were spoken:
And a close-up of what looks like a tense Zelensky and Orban chat. pic.twitter.com/S9s83nsc7W
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 10, 2023
President Zelenskyy is headed to DC tomorrow. Zelenskyy is going for a working visit to meet with President Biden:
On December 11, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy will commence a working visit to the United States. The President of Ukraine will meet with U.S. President Joe Biden and hold a series of meetings and negotiations.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy will focus on ensuring unity among the United States, Europe and the world in supporting Ukraine’s defense against Russian terror and strengthening the international order based on rules and respect for the sovereignty of each nation.
Key topics for discussions in Washington will include the continuation of defense cooperation between Ukraine and the United States, particularly specific joint projects on the production of weapons and air defense systems, as well as coordination of efforts between our countries in the coming year.
Orban’s allies and proxies, however, will be going to DC to meet with Republican members of Congress at a Heritage Foundation event where he will tell them that the US should abandon Ukraine. The Guardian has the details: (emphasis mine)
Allies of Hungary’s far-right prime minister Viktor Orbán will hold a closed-door meeting with Republicans in Washington to push for an end to US military support for Ukraine, the Guardian has learned.
Members of the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs and staff from the Hungarian embassy in Washington will on Monday begin a two-day event hosted by the conservative Heritage Foundation thinktank.
According to a Republican source, some of the attendees, including Republican members of Congress, have been invited to join closed-door talks the next day.
The meeting will take place against a backdrop of tense debate in Washington over Ukraine’s future. Last week the White House warned that, without congressional action, money to buy more weapons and equipment for Kyiv will run out by the end of the year. On Wednesday Senate Republicans blocked an emergency spending bill to fund the war in Ukraine.
A diplomatic source close to the Hungarian embassy said: “Orbán is confident that the Ukraine aid will not pass in Congress. That is why he is trying to block assistance from the EU as well.”
Orbán is a frequent critic of aid to help Ukraine against the Russian invasion. Seen as Vladimir Putin’s closest ally inside the EU for the past few years, he was photographed smiling and shaking hands with the Russian president two months ago in Beijing.
Orbán recently demanded that Ukraine’s European Union (EU) membership be taken off the European Council’s agenda in December. The Hungarian leader posted on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter: “It is clear that the proposal of the European Commission on Ukraine’s EU accession is unfounded and poorly prepared.”
The Heritage Foundation is leading Project 2025, a coalition preparing for the next conservative presidential administration, and has in recent months hosted speeches by leading British Conservative party members Liz Truss and Iain Duncan Smith.
The thinktank has also been a vocal opponent of US assistance to Ukraine. Last year Jessica Anderson, the executive director of its lobbying operation, released a statement under the headline: “Ukraine Aid Package Puts America Last.” In August, Victoria Coates, Heritage’s vice-president, posted on social media: “It’s time to end the blank, undated checks for Ukraine.”
Dalibor Rohac, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute thinktank in Washington, said: “The Hungarian embassy in DC has been very active lately, trying to repair ties with the Republicans and strengthen them where it’s appropriate.
“It is also not surprising that Heritage is the venue of these talks because they are different from other thinktanks in DC; they are more partisan, and their funding model heavily overlaps with the Trump base.”
But, Rohac said, despite his good relations with some Republicans it was “unlikely” that Orbán would have any leverage over US funding for Ukraine.
Supporters of Ukraine have also been making their case to Republicans in Congress. This week David Cameron, the British foreign secretary, held meetings on Capitol Hill. He told a press conference: “I am sure that goodwill will prevail and the money will be voted through, and it will have a huge effect not just on morale in Ukraine but also making sure that European countries keep asking themselves what more can they do.”
I will remind everyone that Lord David Cameron was also sure that Brexit would not pass.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
The peoples of Ukraine and Argentina above all value freedom, their identity, and strive to live with dignity – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
11 December 2023 – 01:27
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today was full of meetings and negotiations in Argentina. Furthermore, other Latin American countries have heard Ukraine’s voice here today.
I represented Ukraine at the inauguration of the new President of Argentina. I also held my first talks with Javier.
Today, on the squares and streets here, many people chanted the word “freedom” – libertad – and this is what unites us – Ukraine and Argentina, our peoples who value freedom, their identity and strive to live with dignity above all else. Javier wants strength for his country, and I felt that he wants honesty in international relations. I thanked him for supporting Ukraine and invited to work with us to restore peace. We discussed bilateral cooperation between our countries, which could contribute to economic strength and jobs for our people. It was a good, cordial meeting. I genuinely wish Argentina sound decision-making and sustained growth: may poverty decrease and strength increase. May freedom continually flourish.
Here, in Buenos Aires, I also held talks with three other leaders from the region: Paraguay, Uruguay, and Ecuador. We discussed our international work and cooperation with them.
On the sidelines of the inauguration, I spoke with Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. It was a highly straightforward conversation, focused on our European affairs.
Today, I also spoke with French President Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen – two phone calls. We talked about joint work at the EU level and about joint defense of Europe. I am grateful for their support.
I met with our community in Argentina – those whose roots here date back decades. I am grateful for the preservation of our culture, our identity, our language. Thank you for maintaining ties with Ukraine despite the distance, despite any adversity.
Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, I will be in Washington with my team – we have meetings and negotiations scheduled. President Biden, Congress. Important matters. Every day, every hour we utilize to give more to Ukraine, to our people – more opportunities, more protection, more strength.
I thank everyone who helps! I thank everyone who fights and works for the interests of our country, our society, our freedom and our victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
Today, I participated in @JMilei’s inauguration in Buenos Aires and congratulated the new President.
This is a new beginning for Argentina and I wish President Milei and the entire Argentinian people to surprise the world with their successes.
I am also certain that bilateral… pic.twitter.com/WFjsZsDYIQ
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 10, 2023
Here’s more of the context surrounding President Zelenskyy’s trip to DC:
Zelensky visits Washington Tuesday. Latest FT-Michigan Ross poll finds 48% of voters believe US spending “too much” in military and financial aid to support Ukraine, compared with 27% who said Washington was spending the “right amount” and 11% who said US not spending enough. 👇 https://t.co/iWW8QdRK3F
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 10, 2023
“Opposition was particularly pronounced among Republicans, with 65 per cent saying the US was spending too much in Ukraine, compared with roughly half — 52 per cent — of independents and just a third — 32 per cent — of Democrats.”https://t.co/qVkyHTsUcE
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 10, 2023
New: “Biden has invited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House for a meeting on Tuesday, December 12 to underscore the United States’ unshakeable commitment to supporting the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s brutal invasion.” pic.twitter.com/VzEZwuCAp4
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) December 10, 2023
Here’s the whole press release:
Talk is cheap. Time to put up or shut up. Because the Ukrainians are not going to stop.
We in 🇺🇦Ukraine simply stick to doing what is right and having a good hope in this war.
We were doing so as half of the world was burying us alive in February 2022, we were doing so as our military defeated Russia at Kyiv, we were doing so as we were persuading the free world…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 7, 2023
We in 🇺🇦Ukraine simply stick to doing what is right and having a good hope in this war.
We were doing so as half of the world was burying us alive in February 2022, we were doing so as our military defeated Russia at Kyiv, we were doing so as we were persuading the free world into giving us weapons to curtail the biggest European war of aggression since Adolf Hitler, and we were doing so as our military having so little resources managed to liberate half of our territory lost to the aggressor – and as it continued combating the world’s biggest nuclear power with valor and efficacy rarely seen in history.
And we will continue believing in what is right and doing the only thing that is right in our situation, like it or not.
Putin has decided to take a premature victory lap:
A) Admits he's a coward for attacking a smaller country with "no industry". All the talk about NATO expanding but he invaded a non-NATO country and bogged down.
B) If Ukraine is so weak, why is the second army in the world struggling so much? Losses already at x10 of Afghanistan… pic.twitter.com/mZpwjJPQyw
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 10, 2023
A) Admits he’s a coward for attacking a smaller country with “no industry”. All the talk about NATO expanding but he invaded a non-NATO country and bogged down.
B) If Ukraine is so weak, why is the second army in the world struggling so much? Losses already at x10 of Afghanistan with prospects of losing many times more than that.
The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, General Micael Bydén, visited the positions of the #UAarmy in the Eastern direction and met the artillery men from the 45th Artillery Brigade.
We are grateful to our Swedish partners for their steadfast support!
🇺🇦🤝🇸🇪 pic.twitter.com/5H2USDPHdL— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 10, 2023
For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this year:
10th Day of the Ukrainian Advent Calendar.
Today, we'd like to say thank you to our Canadian friends at @NationalDefence for their constant support in our fight against evil. We are especially grateful for Roshel Senator military armored cars.
Senators help save the lives of… pic.twitter.com/2Z9xIseEMb— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 10, 2023
10th Day of the Ukrainian Advent Calendar.
Today, we’d like to say thank you to our Canadian friends at @NationalDefence for their constant support in our fight against evil. We are especially grateful for Roshel Senator military armored cars.
Senators help save the lives of Ukrainian warriors. This vehicle provides a high level of protection against explosive devices and ambushes, ensuring the safety of the crew. Our soldiers feel even more confident when they know that you feel safer when they know that under their feet is special protection against russian mines.
The first decade of Weapons of Victory has come to a conclusion. More to come!
The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Russian blogger is complaining that General Teplinsky is trying hard to improve the situation on the Dnipro river but is facing "lies on all levels of reports". Teplinsky replaced previous General Makarevich who only had negative feedback with regards to his performance. The… pic.twitter.com/ZPXnjjDwTw
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 10, 2023
Russian blogger is complaining that General Teplinsky is trying hard to improve the situation on the Dnipro river but is facing “lies on all levels of reports”. Teplinsky replaced previous General Makarevich who only had negative feedback with regards to his performance. The blogger says Russians are sent into kamikaze assaults by senior leadership who are misled by the same people who carried out previous assaults.
Here’s the full translation by Dmitri:
Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Repelling Russian attack on Krynky, Kherson region. Video by the 35th Brigade of Ukraine. https://t.co/AuJ1LX0xQR pic.twitter.com/697lgFyMHM
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 10, 2023
Avdiivka:
Avdiivka direction. Russian serviceman says their group of 70 has 14 people remaining alive. They're meant to be "closing the cauldron" as a gift for Putin's inauguration. pic.twitter.com/dDxmsILGaX
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 10, 2023
The first loss of the Russian BTR-90 (damaged and abounded). Avdiivka front.
In mid October 2023 BTR-90 was spotted at the front for the first time. BTR-90 exists only in very limited quantities, as it was never mass-producedhttps://t.co/u4ZFS4UjZ0https://t.co/FzSGbb6zi1 https://t.co/1B3oSyODOn pic.twitter.com/9jNT0v3cD1— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 10, 2023
Mariinka:
79th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian attack on Mariinka direction. https://t.co/FJWO8EEE3T pic.twitter.com/EKwBwvEi9j
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 10, 2023
For Omnes and the red legs:
The accuracy, composure, and precision of Ukrainian artillerymen inflict great losses for the enemy.
The combat work of the FH70, Msta-B, and M777.
📹: Operational Command West pic.twitter.com/u7stdy1Onf
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 10, 2023
What appears to be the first images of Polish M120 Rak self-propelled wheeled gun-mortar in Ukraine (The first two images). Photos from the official profile of the 44th Brigade of Ukraine.https://t.co/Nx7HEHecmB pic.twitter.com/jbokhNXOQg
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 10, 2023
For you Ukrainian drone enthusiasts:
Russian servicemen demonstrating damage to an unarmoured "Bukhanka" done by the Ukrainian FPV. pic.twitter.com/Wm1SYm1sqZ
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 10, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets tonight, but here’s an adjacent one from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
"I need more pickup trucks to drive the russians out of Ukraine," — Ukrainian combat cat.
📸: 56th Motorized Brigade pic.twitter.com/6botcVqFce
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 10, 2023
Touch not the cat but a glove!
And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!
@patron__dsns Вгадали чи ні?🤨 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
Did you guess right or wrong? 🤨 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Omnes Omnibus
Sir David Cameron? When was he knighted?I’ll just walk away.
hrprogressive
Am I crazy for feeling this way, or?
I can legitimately see why the Fascist Right like Orban, et. al., feel confident. Because I think they see “The West” waving the proverbial white flag.
Congress recesses in a few days, and I absolutely believe they’re all going to go home without passing anything, because the GOP does not want Ukraine to win, and because the Democrats are a combination of hamstrung by their minority in the House and/or unwilling to do anything other than Take The L and…hope for the best?
Aside from literally Letting Fascism Win, I truly don’t know the endgame for “The West” here.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: Sunak elevated him to the Lords about three weeks or so ago so he could bring him back into government as the new Foreign Minister since Cameron does not hold a seat in the Commons. I’m pretty sure it is a lifetime only peerage.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Peerage and knighthood are separate things.
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: They will not pass anything this week. The emergency declaration by Blinken allowing for the munitions to immediately go to Israel without Congressional approval or interference removes the immediate pressure.
Last night you asked this:
Putin wants to recreate the territorial dimensions of the Soviet Union, but does not wish to recreate the Marxist-Leninism part. Rather, he wants to subjugate all the people in the states formerly occupied by the Soviet Union under the Ruskiy Mir/Russian world concept that he has bought into and then expanded on by developing a fictionalized history and mythology of Russia, it’s history, and its place in the world.
As for where the US is, you most likely do not want to read my thoughts on where we are and the danger we face. It is not pleasant reading.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
Probably not, but that’s kind of my point.
I feel like we’re reaching that point of no return, and we’re all on a speeding train headed towards a “Bridge Out” sign, and the conductors of said train – and everyone is free to fill in who they believe occupies those roles – are busy telling everyone “Everything’s Fine” when everything is most assuredly Not Fine.
I think people need to know this stuff while they still have time to, you know. Process it. Do something about it. Prepare themselves.
That your answer to me wasn’t a “No” kind of tells me I’m likely not far off, unfortunately.
Appreciate you replying to me, I know these threads can spiral out, sometimes quickly. Thanks.
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I’m aware, but he’s been reported as Sir David in the press. But if it makes you happy, I’ll remove it until someone can get an answer out of the heraldry office in London.
Omnes Omnibus
@Adam L Silverman: Well then, I am sure it’s correct. I’ll leave it alone though.
Seeker
@hrprogressive:
IMO, we are past the point of no return. Putin and Trump have effectively won – it’s stupid to pretend they haven’t. Consider that Trump currently has more power over the US government than Biden, and Trump isn’t even the President again yet. The idea that his crew will be incompetent when they assume power is simply wrong. There are very smart and capable people in the shadow administration and they now know from the first term that no one with any significant power will stand up to them.
I don’t think there’s any way to prepare for what is coming. It’s just going to happen.
hrprogressive
@Seeker:
I mean, I understand why you’re saying that, but the fact that we do have Biden in the White House, and the GOP took their L’s in 2022 and 2023 without there being political violence…you know, I take those as good data points.
I have very specific things I think people should be doing. Namely, one thing the right has been doing for years, for example.
Almost Retired
@Seeker: How’s the weather in St. Petersburg?
Adam L Silverman
@hrprogressive: Okay, but don’t say you weren’t warned. This was an answer I gave to someone else over the weekend:
“I’m not sure, though, that our state and society is even capable of doing the right thing here because they have both been subverted over the past forty plus years. I’m using subversion here in the sense that Bernard Fall used it: out administrated (at the link, just mentally insert neo-fascist whenever you see Fall generally referring to communists).
A strategy was developed, ruthlessly executed, and updated and revised as necessary to reverse all the positive movement that came out of the civil rights era. To push the US as state and society back into the populist, one party and movement dominated Jim Crow system that had finally been replaced by a fragile, immature, and imperfect multicultural system. And to lock it in for all time. This was the work that began as the Civil War ended and led to the overthrow of Reconstruction, which allowed the Confederacy to win the peace despite losing their rebellion. We call it the Lost Cause and its ideological arm was driven through the Dunning School of American history. We are dealing with the same forces. They have never stopped and will never stop. They can be stopped, but it would require leaders willing to recognize what has actually gone on, is going on, and what needs to be done. Which includes repeatedly calling it out to Americans until it stuck in everyone’s consciousness, and then do what is necessary to finally rip this evil ideology, theology, and doctrine out by the roots and burn it to ash once and for all.
The failure to do this – first in the immediate aftermath of the Great Rebellion now DBA the Civil War, in the 1870s with the overthrow of Reconstruction, and then in the late 1970s – has allowed the GOP, the conservative sociopolitical/socioreligious/socioeconomic movement it is built into, and the ultra wealthy it serves to subvert the Constitution, the state, society, and economy. Our dominant judicial-legal understanding of the Constitution is to read it as if it was the Confederate constitution, not the American one. That is what the Federalist Society’s bullshit is based on. 29 states are under complete GOP control, two more have extremely gerrymandered state legislative GOP supermajorities that give them effective complete control (WI and NC), and NC and Ohio also have extremely judicially manipulated state Supreme Courts. Louisiana, Alabama, and Georgia are now all actively defying court orders in regard to their extreme gerrymanders. Florida is preparing to do the same thing. NC just instituted an even more extreme one and WI’s GOP is telegraphing they’re going to do the same thing as well. In all of those states we do not have small “l” small “d” liberal democracy, we have illiberal managed democracy like in Russia, Hungary, Turkey, and Israel.
Until/unless we deal with the political party, political-social-economic-religious movement it is tethered to, and the ultra wealthy benefactors of both that have subverted the Constitution and American politics and rule of law, we are not going to make any progress.
They have been building towards someone like Trump or DeSantis or Abbot since LBJ signed the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights Act. In Trump they got the perfect vessel.
I do not think the ballot box or the courts will save us. I think we will have to look to other historic examples, like those of the Bielskys and Fall’s activities in WW II. I also think too few will have it in them to do so and then do what is necessary when the time comes.
As for Trump:The issue is, as it has been for some time, is that our system was not designed to deal with people like Trump and today’s GOP. In Trump’s case it was not designed and therefore has no way to respond to someone who refuses to accept that 1) reality is anything other than what he declares it to be and 2) that there is no law, norm, ideal, ethic, and/or tradition that he is bound by and can be held to. This is not limited to Trump. It is why we have so much trouble dealing with white collar and other crime that is committed by ultra high net worth individuals. There is no way that your or I could say or do the things that Musk or Thiel do and still maintain our clearances. Yet they retain theirs as the heads of companies doing significant business with the DOD and the IC. The GOPs ever worsening and more extreme behavior is related to this. Since Nixon they have never actually been held accountable for breaking the law, let alone the rules and norms of the political institutions they are serving in. We have had three presidents and their senior campaign personnel, who were rewarded with senior executive branch appointments, conspire with hostile foreign powers to win elections. Nixon working through Kissinger to derail the negotiations with the North Vietnamese. Reagan working through Connally and others to derail Carter’s attempts to free the hostages. Trump and his entire crowd in 2015-2016 with Putin and his catspaws. This crowd has now expanded that to include MBS, Bibi, MBZ, and the Qataris for the 2024 election. McConnell has never and will never be held to account for his rule breaking, as well as taking a bribe from Deripaska to put disgraced former senator Vitters’ wife on the Federal bench. Gingrich has only ever failed upwards. Unless the news breaks that one of them has been molesting boys, like Hastert or Foley, there are no consequences. And in Foley’s case he is making money consulting.
The complimentary problem is that the Democrats have decided that if they just demonstrate acceptable behavior – not breaking the law, not politicizing every issue, not seeking revenge, following the norms and rules of political institutions like the Senate regarding nominations and the filibuster, etc – than the Republicans and conservatives will learn to behave properly. Which is not how any of this works. As long as they – from Trump on down – are rewarded, or at least not punished – for their criminality, political deviancy, financial criminality (they’re all insider trading based on what they learn in Congress or in executive branch appointments), and rule breaking – they will continue to do so. Because they have no reason to start.”
Adam L Silverman
@Omnes Omnibus: I changed it. I don’t know and don’t care whether he’s just a peer or also a peer and a knight. The guy’s a tool and a dumbass.
Mike in DC
The price of Ukraine aid is going to be some painful concessions on border/immigration issues.
Martin
I think I overestimated McConnell’s ability to hold his caucus together.
Alison Rose
Yeah, I’ll bet it was. I presume they would have been speaking English to each other so if anyone can lip-read, please do.
I can’t imagine what’s going through Zelenskyy’s mind ahead of this DC visit, knowing he has to project strength while also all but begging for assistance that he knows is unlikely to happen because our government is filled with assholes.
Also, I don’t give a damn if half the US public thinks we’re “doing too much” because more than half of the US public are also assholes, and dumb as dirt.
I’m not in a good mood today, could you tell.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: He has a hostage they all wanted to take.
hrprogressive
@Adam L Silverman:
You didn’t say anything I haven’t already thought, tbh.
One of the only things I think gives me any sliver of hope are the younger generations who have no interest in what these Modern Day Confederates want. They aren’t going to go willingly into what they want to push.
I don’t think most people realize what seems not just likely, but inevitable at this point, and what that entails. “Our Side” doesn’t like talking about that, but I wish people would open their eyes and understand the threat that’s openly saying exactly what they want, and what they will try to do to achieve it.
Sure, I do still “hope” and I’m putting air quotes around that based on what you previously said about hope, that “the public” will continue to use their votes, voices, and resources to push back against this tide as long as possible.
I “hope” that perhaps more elected politicians stop huffing from the comforting brown paper bag of hopium and realize that their colleagues would just as soon execute them and seize power rather than work on anything “bipartisan” with them.
I also am not putting any faith in any of those things actually happening, because as you mentioned, so many pieces of our society have been infiltrated and subverted by these actors that it’s going to prove difficult to stop them all.
Would love if it perhaps one of your posts could be a more long-form explanation of this, but I definitely understand you’ve got a ton on your plate, so, I get it.
I’m not any more alarmed than I already was, because you didn’t share anything “new” with me.
Doesn’t feel great to have my concerns validated by someone with your credentials, but it also definitely makes me think I’m not the one who’s crazy, either.
Thank you again for the responses, have a great night.
Ksmiami
@hrprogressive: fight, flight, or watch in horror as things unfold.
Alison Rose
@Ksmiami: Unfortunately, there isn’t much fighting we can feasibly do that will matter, and many of us don’t have the option of flight.
hrprogressive
@Ksmiami:
It’s #1 I think more people need to prepare themselves for, and quickly.
dc
I count 23 Repub trifectas. See https://www.ncsl.org/about-state-legislatures/state-partisan-composition
Scroll down to the 2023 State Partisan Composition – Legislature and Governor Control map.
Or 22 Repub trifectas according to Ballotpedia: https://ballotpedia.org/Gubernatorial_and_legislative_party_control_of_state_government#Current_state_government_trifectas
TeezySkeezy
@hrprogressive: my kinda pessimist.
kindness
I’m more than a little offended at Orban coming into our country and suggesting who we should support and who we shouldn’t. NATO doesn’t need Hungary. The EU doesn’t need Hungary.
Adam L Silverman
@dc: I was informed there would be no math.
Gin & Tonic
So now Elmo is busy defending one Gonzalo Lira, calling him a “journalist.” For those who are blissfully unaware, Lira is a Chilean-American YouTube personality (“Coach Red Pill”) who moved to Kyiv, Ukraine some time before the current phase of the war began. He then moved to Kharkiv, and made a living as a russian shill. Unfortunately he graduated from that to being a full-fledged russian asset, reporting on Ukrainian troop movements and such. At some point he very publicly announced he’d try to flee to Hungary, IIRC. Ukrainian authorities had other ideas, and arrested him. Sucks to be him, I guess, but the usual suspects on the American Right have taken up his banner, most notably Fucker Carlson, and thereby now Elmo.
What is especially galling about their stupid crusade is I have yet to read a word from any of them about Evan Gershkovich, an actual journalist, currently held in russia.
TeezySkeezy
@hrprogressive: Modern propaganda facilitated by social media is highly effective, and once the authoritarians shut down competing voices it is very effective at molding the population into what those in power want, across all demos. So don’t rely on how the youngs or whatever demo currently feels–they can be molded and will be. Not all of them, and not most of them all the way, but enough to keep the power with the bastards.
Alison Rose
@Gin & Tonic:
They don’t like those.
hrprogressive
@TeezySkeezy:
I suppose this is possible, but I also think there are plenty of people who would not “go quietly into that good night”, you know?
But there are definitely a lot of people who put the blindfold on willingly and are walking forward without any clue how close to the abyss we actually are.
dc
@Adam L Silverman: Lol, it doesn’t change the fact that we need to get more control back to the Dems and sane people who believe in democracy at all levels, especially the states.
Bill Arnold
@Seeker:
It sounds like you are playing oracle and that in your prophetic visions, Trump will win the 2024 election.
If so, then, for the first time I have said this online to anyone, fuck off.
The 2024 election is in play.
(BTW, Trump has less power over the US Government than Biden.)
TeezySkeezy
@hrprogressive: I dunno, if protesting becomes illegal or even deadly, I think a lot of the fight will be over for most people.
SpaceUnit
I hate to interrupt the doom fest but we have an election to win in eleven months. Focus on what can make a difference.
And I’m taking the fact that Russia is now attacking on riding mowers as welcome news. Please excuse my ever-so-modest optimism.
Bill Arnold
@Adam L Silverman:
Especially a dumbass
Adam L Silverman
@dc: I’m glad it is fewer than I remembered.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Gee, I hope there isn’t a bigger hostage to take next year.
cain
@Bill Arnold: the fact that he thinks Trump has more power and influence over the federal govt than the President of the United States means he’s been trying schedule A drugs.
hrprogressive
@TeezySkeezy:
I think people are going to need to come to terms with the idea that it’s likely that a lot more than “protesting” would be needed in this scenario.
@SpaceUnit:
We definitely should still be trying to utilize the legitimate means of governance to affect the outcomes we want, and as pessimistic as I am about the future – globally, not just in the US – I still think that as long as that matters, it should be done.
But what I’m saying is that the rot and infiltration of our institutions by those who wish to destroy them goes so deep that, absent a massive sea change, stopping those people from achieving their goals may well take much more than just “Voting Blue”.
Everyone should in fact be voting blue. But everyone needs to come to terms with the idea that that alone is unlikely to be enough.
Adam L Silverman
@Martin: Three. Two from the staggered CRs and then the debt ceiling.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
He also brutally assaulted his wife, a differently abled kid, and ratted out a dozen of his fellow Vatnick’s to the SBU
He still makes $8K a month online.
SpaceUnit
@hrprogressive:
Christ.
What else you got?
hrprogressive
@SpaceUnit:
I think the entirety of the planet is essentially poised to allow the Global Fascist Movement to seize power across the world, and those powers will make life a living hell for everyone until the climate crisis starts to make vast swaths of the planet uninhabitable and plunge humanity into complete chaos until a combination of the planet collapsing and humanity annihilating itself means the end of the human race as we know it.
I think by 2050, if not sooner, modern society will be over as we know, and by 2100 – which I am unlikely to live to see – humanity will be a shell of what it once was, if it even exists at all.
That’s what I foresee happening, absent massive changes by society right now to mitigate the worst of those outcomes.
Another Scott
KyivIndependent.com:
I saw a report with 3 photos somewhere that said they talked about 20 seconds, so there wasn’t a lot of time.
Cheers,
Scott.
Alison Rose
@Another Scott: Enough time to get a point across:
SpaceUnit
@hrprogressive:
Then get to work. Demoralizing people on a blog does nothing.
Hope is the antidote to fear.
Sally
I haven’t read any of this yet so someone else has probably already thought of it. I was wondering if President Zelenskyy (having so much free time on his hands//) could do a whistle stop stop tour of particularly R states’ facilities where stuff (technical) is being built by American workers for Ukraine. To showcase the jobs being provided and where the money is being spent. He is so charismatic and very good at thanking people. Perhaps give some American factories some awards. Maybe a silly idea.
Martin
@Adam L Silverman: Plus an election.
hrprogressive
@SpaceUnit:
I apologize that me speaking what I believe to be an uncomfortable, but necessary, truth to people on a left of center space is being reduced to “demoralizing people on a blog”.
I’ve considered multiple times what routes, if any, I might have, to try and affect change. Sadly I’m limited in things like time, resources, and know-how.
But I think saying what is necessary is important. I think we’re running out of time.
Jay
@Sally:
Nope, that is a good idea.
Bill Arnold
@hrprogressive:
This part, I agree with. The slow-motion catastrophe that we are heading into is beyond the capacity of human empathy.
There are degrees of climate catastrophe, though. More power to petro-states like Russia, and to interests that block decarbonization efforts (some Fascist), means worse climate catastrophe (stakes are hundreds of millions/billions of human lives, and non-human species extinctions). Was disheartening to see COP28 so farcically dominated by petro-states and fossil-fuel interests. (My hopes lie mainly in alternative energy science and engineering, especially baseload sources (including nuclear in countries where politics allows it), storage, and transmission. And stomping/spiking[1] Fascism’s rise whereever possible.)
Note that the international authoritarian right have been taking a few losses, too; it’s not just gains for them.
Trump lost in 2020. Jair Bolsonaro lost in 2022. Boris Johnson lost power (and the Tories are very unpopular). B. Netanyahu lost power for a year and a half in 2021.
[1] ETA “spiking” is a railroading term. It is (roughly) manual method for diverting a train to another track.
Kristine Smith
@SpaceUnit:
Given how active we are here and how much money we raise for various groups, I sometimes wonder if we could become a target for folks who’d like to derail those efforts.
SpaceUnit
@hrprogressive:
I didn’t really mean to come across as combative. It’s just that there seems to be a sect of doomers on this blog who can’t see that we’re actually winning. No, we’re not at the point where we can spike the ball and claim our trophy, but we’re on the offensive (all MSM narratives to the contrary).
And your call for urgency is understood and appreciated.
Lyrebird
@SpaceUnit: I hugely appreciate Adam’s updates, and I simultaneously appreciate your comments this evening! For me to stay functional I sometimes need to narrow down to what can I actually do something about.
SpaceUnit
@Kristine Smith:
I’m reluctant to label all the doom commenters as trolls. I think that most of them have just been too willing to accept bad-faith media narratives as objective reality.
schrodingers_cat
@SpaceUnit: Its the certainty of the predictors of doom that is galling.
This prediction can be summed up succintly. We have already lost and I am so brave for saying it aloud. All the rest of you are idiots.
SpaceUnit
@Lyrebird:
Yeah. Just curling up in a ball on the floor is the surest way to lose.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
SpaceUnit
@schrodingers_cat:
Yes.
That song gets very tiresome.
flagpole
strange visitor (from another planet)
if putin is sending seventy year old tanks and IFV’s into battle, it seems that russia doesn’t have infinite resources to throw at the problem of determined ukrainian resistance. at some point, they’re gonna run out of stuff.
how many tanks can russia realistically make a year while refurbing older units and repairing those with battle damage
eta- again adam, thank you.
Roberto el oso
@Ksmiami: “fight, flight, or watch in horror …”
for many of us in red states who refuse to be driven out of our homes (and with absolutely no judgment against those who choose to do so), the first of your options (“fight”) has been something in the forefront of our minds for some years now. I know you’ll understand that it’s not exactly the sort of thing that should or can be discussed online. But always remember that a fundamental difference between progressives who are familiar with guns and their use and those on the right is that we have never felt the need to post intimidating selfies or brag about the size of our arsenal. This sometimes common assumption that being left-leaning in the US goes hand in hand with non-violence is a fond myth which I have never quite understood (however much of an admirable sentiment it might be).
wjca
It occurs to me that when diplomats report that they had “frank” talks, that typically neans that in private there were harsh words and total disagreement. Somehow, a “highly straightforward conversation” has the same vibe.
Ivan X
@Alison Rose: haha. You win
Alison Rose
@Ivan X: *curtsy* I admit, it’s a line I’ve utilized many times.
Mapaghimagsik
@hrprogressive:
I would totally play in that D&D campaign.
wjca
Bad as things are, this is over the top. Putin’s prospects may, for the sake of discussion, be good. But he’s nowhere near having won yet. As for TIFG, he has the power, sometimes, to stop things from happening in Congress. But he has zero power to make something happen even there. Let alone in the government as a whole.
Martin
I guarantee it’s more than we’re sending Ukraine.
RaflW
@SpaceUnit: Yes. It’s late and I need to sleep, but here goes: I think the Republican Party is more of a fractured mess and less inevitable juggernaut. Several state party coffers are broke or in serious debt.
There’s a lot public infighting — as you’d expect from 100s of preening attention seekers who don’t want to do any actual work. The House majority is narrow and cranky and likely shrinking.
This chaos isn’t good, but it also isn’t a well oiled machine about to steamroll the nation.
Have heart, folks. Prepare. Get active. This inflection point is scary, but it could go a variety of ways. Doomcasting is not going to help get one of the better options to arrive.
AxelFoley
Woulda took a whole lot of people holding me back from getting into Orban’s ass if I were Zelenskyy. That’s why I couldn’t be a politician.
way2blue
@Jay: Agreed. Maybe 5% of Americans even know the funds for Ukraine are mostly spent in the U.S. Oh. Andt the polls on whether the U.S. is spending too much or not. Really aggravating. Did the poll even explain how much of the Defense budget is earmarked for Ukraine? It’s in the noise…
SpaceUnit
@RaflW:
Amen. And thanks.
I’m going to bed now too.
billcinsd
@dc: Technically, Nebraska is unicameral, so can only have a difecta
wjca
Yes, but is more than they are losing?
Martin
@wjca: That’s a function of what we’re sending Ukraine. If they don’t get western arms, Russia will stop losing tanks.
Alison Rose
@AxelFoley: I’ve said before that I wish* the war could be settled by Zelenskyy and putin getting in the ring together, because putin would get thrashed right quick. I know everyone talks about putin being some martial arts master, but like…when all of your opponents have to be afraid of getting yeeted out a window if they win, I think that might tip the scales a bit. Plus, he’s 71 and Zelenskyy is just shy of 46, and it’s pretty obvious the latter has gotten himself jacked the fuck up over the past couple of years, whereas putin always looks like he’s just come out of a stroke. And in this case, I’d happily see the same scenario play out with Orban, with apologies to my Hungarian ancestors.
(*not really…I mean, kinda…but not really really)
Bupalos
@hrprogressive: Nothing is inevitable. The thing I like least about this kind of take is how it implies some inexorable fate we’re moving toward. And the observational voice, like we’re just watching a glacier sliding away. Things change. We change them. People aren’t going to just cave to fascism. For all it’s faults the U.S. still has a deep culure of democracy and freedom. It will be tested in the coming decade but I’ll bet on it in the end.
NobodySpecial
When did LGM take over this blog? If I wanted doom and gloom, they’re the actual source to get it.
StringOnAStick
@Bupalos: Thank you for saying that. The doomerism is getting deep.
Allowing myself to be crushed by the weight of the world does not make the world any lighter. Some seem to enjoy it or making that happen in others.
wjca
For another amusing thought, picture settling next year’s election by putting Biden and TIFG in the ring together. “Old man” — Ha!
Besides, think how much we could win in sucker bets with any MAGAts we know.
gene108
@Mike in DC:
There will be no aid to Ukraine, therefore no concessions.
Republicans smell blood in the water regarding Biden’s Ukraine policy, where Biden very publicly declared himself Ukraine’s #1 supporter. If Republicans can kill Ukraine funding, Biden will bleed even more and look older and more feeble.
This is what’s probably motivating Senate Republicans to block Ukraine funding over border security, when it seemed most Senate Republicans were in favor of Ukraine aid.
@Martin:
49 votes against is holding his caucus together. Republicans have their disputes, but making Joe Biden’s life as hellish as possible is something they all can get behind.
@Adam L Silverman:
No democratic system of government has been designed to survive when a large political party is operating in bad faith and deciding the law does not apply to them. I don’t think any government has solved this problem.
dave319
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve just read a precis of Bernard’s Fall’s work written by Frank Jones of The War Room, published in January of this year. If I read you correctly, I am left with two questions: Are we, readers of this blog and patriotic Constitutional democracy Americans, to view the rise of this fascistic illiberal neo-Confederacy in America as an example of Mao’s idea of revolutionary war, or should we study Fall’s theories of revolutionary war as containing a useful political and activist understanding, to come upon a way to counter the political and cultural rise of this looming threat? Fall’s prescriptive of political action, grounded in and employing understanding of the history of both revolutionary war and our own country’s struggles to fulfill its promise, seems quite beyond our current moment in history.
Marcus
@Adam L Silverman: I’ve mention this to you in the past…maybe two years ago…the similarities with Rome are there.
Right now we are going through a Sulla purge….eventually the left will get their Caesar…what is so stupid and wasteful is that this can be avoided…Biden should transparently and politically run on funding Ukraine/Israel with strings attached without congressional approval and dare the impeachment for it.
He should run on it and do it before next election…he needs to open up the pollical field…sorry this won’t be a popular post
Barry
@Adam L Silverman: “As for Trump:The issue is, as it has been for some time, is that our system was not designed to deal with people like Trump and today’s GOP. In Trump’s case it was not designed and therefore has no way to respond to someone who refuses to accept that 1) reality is anything other than what he declares it to be and 2) that there is no law, norm, ideal, ethic, and/or tradition that he is bound by and can be held to. ”
Adam, I disagree with this, as do yourself, earlier.
Trump would have been reined in far earlier if the GOP Base and the majority of the GOP leadership and the owners/editors of the ‘liberal’ MSM and the federal judiciary and most billionaires did not all support him.