(Image by My Dog Sighs)
A quick housekeeping note. First, everyone is most welcome for the posts. I wish I didn’t have to do them and will be very happy when they are no longer necessary. Second, let’s not be diagnosing people we don’t know based on how one interprets what they’re writing on the internet. Especially when you’re pseudonymous and unlikely to be actually qualified to make said diagnoses. I do not want to have to address this point again.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are working as hard as possible with partners to enhance Ukrainian air defense – address by the President of Ukraine
8 December 2023 – 21:22
Dear Ukrainians, I wish good health to all of you!
First of all, I want to commend our defenders in the sky – during the missile strike this morning, a significant portion of Russian missiles were successfully intercepted. However, not all. Missiles hit Kharkiv and also Dnipropetrovsk region. Necessary assistance has been provided to all those affected. One person was killed. My condolences to the family and friends. We are working as hard as possible with partners to enhance Ukrainian air defense. We keep working now – almost every week brings new arrangements and opportunities for Ukraine. This Russian regime repeats the evil it has already done but tries to make each strike more painful. We are aware of this. And I thank everyone who defends Ukraine from Shahed drones, who repels Russian missile strikes, our intelligence, and every partner who has made a decision to support the Ukrainian air defense and impose sanctions against the state-terrorist that can truly limit it. Let those in Russia not doubt: everyone – from terrorists to terror propagandists – they will all be held accountable. For every strike.
I held a Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting. As always, the Commander-in-Chief and each sector commanders reported on the operational situation. Kupiansk, Lyman, and all Donetsk directions, south. I thank all the soldiers and commanders for their resilience and valor. The task of our state – even now, in winter, no matter how difficult it may be – is to show strength and not let the enemy seize the initiative, not let them fortify. I thank everyone whose actions ensure this for Ukraine – our ability to make our moves. Today, I want to particularly commend the soldiers who have shown themselves the most – now, and in battles in winter and this autumn.
The 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade – Soldier Andriy Minasov. Thank you, soldier, for your effectiveness! The 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade – Soldier Ivan Kovalchuk and Senior Soldier Vitaliy Liubchyk. Thank you, guys, for your precision! The 68th Separate Hunting Brigade – Junior Sergeant Roman Petliar. Thank you! The 92nd Separate Storm Brigade – Soldier Pavlo Kissa. Thank you for your bravery, soldier! The 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeant Maxim Ombysh. Thank you for your valor and for preserving the lives of your comrades! The 26th Separate Artillery Brigade – Chief Sergeant Oleksandr Fedorchuk. Thank you for destroying the occupant! The 25th Separate Airborne Brigade – Sergeant Andriy Zhuravliov, aerial reconnaissance specialist. Thank you! The 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeants Yuriy Sviatenko and Dmytro Semennyk. Together, they eliminated the enemy sabotage group near Avdiivka Plant. Well done! The 23rd Separate Mechanized Brigade – Junior Sergeant Roman Lutsenko. Thank you for powerful combat results! The 704th Separate Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear Defense Regiment – Senior Soldier Marian Portsina. Thank you for your bravery, soldier, for the kind of bravery that has become a symbol of Ukrainian defense.
Today, I spoke with the Prime Minister of Estonia – both about preserving the support for Ukraine from partners in general and about very specific things that our state and our soldiers need to achieve necessary results. I am grateful for the understanding and assistance.
Of course, we also discussed the issue of European Union unity – especially in the context of opening negotiations with Ukraine regarding EU accession. Ukraine is fulfilling all its commitments, as we have proven on multiple occasions. Today, by the way, Ukrainian parliament passed the necessary laws in line with the recommendations of the European Commission in fighting graft and regarding the rights of national minorities. We have taken into account the conclusions of the Venice Commission – specifically regarding national communities. We expect that Ukraine’s efforts will be properly assessed by EU leaders, and the corresponding European promises to Ukraine will be fulfilled. We had seven recommendations – we did everything expected of us by December.
We continue our active foreign policy work to bring gains for Ukraine in defense, macrofinance, and political and motivational strength. Anyone defending freedom needs to feel that they are not alone. The free world must be united. And to truly succeed, Ukraine must be a donor of unity. Every step in our foreign policy is aimed at this. In particular, today in Kyiv, the first meeting of participants of our new international coalition for the return of children deported to Russia from temporarily occupied territory took place. We unite states, international organizations, civic leaders from different countries, and legal experts for the liberation of children. I thank everyone who has already joined this effort, those who are already ensuring concrete legal results, including warrants from the International Criminal Court regarding Russian officials, and of course, everyone whose mediation and influence help bring children home to Ukraine.
And one more thing.
Our intelligence and diplomats continue the evacuation of Ukrainian citizens from the Gaza Strip. The entire day today is dedicated to bringing our people to a safe territory. Almost 40 Ukrainian citizens are now safe. Thank you to Defense Intelligence, thank you to our diplomats, and thank you to our friends in the region.
Glory to all who fight and work for Ukraine and Ukrainians! Glory to our powerful nation!
Glory to Ukraine!
For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this season:
Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 9
Today, we express our gratitude to our Czech friends from @ObranaTweetuje for their comprehensive support since the beginning of the russian invasion. We are especially grateful for DANA self-propelled artillery systems.
Every shell fired from… pic.twitter.com/qeLjf5hfye
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 9, 2023
Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 9
Today, we express our gratitude to our Czech friends from @ObranaTweetuje for their comprehensive support since the beginning of the russian invasion. We are especially grateful for DANA self-propelled artillery systems.
Every shell fired from DANA artillery system brings Ukrainian victory closer and destroys the enemy. DANA can quickly target and hit an enemy target.
Stay tuned for new Weapons of Victory!
The hits keep on coming for Ukraine. We start with The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was blunt when he addressed G7 leaders this week.
“Russia hopes only for one thing: that next year the free world’s consolidation will collapse. Russia believes that America and Europe will show weakness, and will not maintain support for Ukraine,” he said in a video call on Wednesday evening with his most important political allies.
“The free world vitally needs to . . . maintain support for those whose freedom is being attacked,” he said. “Ukraine has strength. And I ask you to be as strong as you can be.”
Zelenskyy’s plea is not mere rhetoric. Hours after he spoke, the US Senate rejected the White House’s latest bid to pass legislation authorising $60bn in financial support for Ukraine. Across the Atlantic, a European Commission proposal that would provide €50bn to prop up Kyiv’s budget for the next four years hangs in the balance ahead of a summit of EU leaders next week, following months of bickering between member states over how to fund it.
Without one of those finance packages being approved, Ukraine’s long-term financial security would be in question. With neither, its future would be grim.
At a moment when Ukraine is desperate for long-term financial and military commitments as a bulwark against prolonged Russian aggression, its two most important backers have been found wanting, raising doubts over the west’s resolve.
“We need to provide clarity for Ukraine financing for the next year and coming years . . . the matter is definitely urgent,” Valdis Dombrovskis, European Commission executive vice-president, tells the FT. “Russia is already a war economy,” he says, warning that the EU must not “lose focus on support for Ukraine.”
In the EU’s case, it is not only financial support that is at risk. The bloc was supposed to act as the anchor for Ukraine’s western integration with the prospect, eventually, of Ukrainian membership. An EU agreement to start accession negotiations would give Kyiv a much-needed political victory over Moscow after a year of military disappointments — but Hungary has vowed to block it.
Most unsettling for Kyiv is that support for Ukraine, once a matter of broad cross-party consensus, has become a political bargaining chip on both sides of the Atlantic.
“Ukraine is no longer special. It is no longer regarded as this issue of national security, of paramount importance for the EU, Nato, or the United States. Because if that was the case, people wouldn’t be playing politics with it,” says Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels.
“It is a devaluation of the Ukrainian war effort. There is no other way to put it, in my opinion. And that, for Ukraine, is a terrible situation,” Kirkegaard adds. “If you’re Vladimir Putin, you’re saying, well, my strategic decision to try to hold on longer than the west is working.”
The financial pressures facing Ukraine are immense — and relentless. The government uses all of its tax revenues to cover defence spending — amounting to about half of its public expenditure. While Ukraine has received nearly $100bn worth of weapons and military training, it also needs foreign aid to pay for the government, public services, pensions and benefits. This requires $41bn in external financing next year, according to the budget passed by parliament last month.
It was counting on $18bn from the EU, $8.5bn from the US, $5.4bn from the IMF, $1.5bn from other development banks and $1bn from the UK. Kyiv is still negotiating with other partners, such as Japan and Canada.
Although some of the required money will be paid whatever happens in Washington or Brussels, Kyiv needs cash to start flowing next month. If it fails to come through and Kyiv cannot borrow enough domestically, it may have to resort to monetary financing by the central bank, which could unleash hyperinflation and put financial stability at risk.
Hence its alarm at the impasse in the EU and US. In Brussels, Hungary has vowed to block all support lines in part as leverage to force the EU to release cash payments to Budapest frozen due to rule of law violations.
But the Pentagon has already started to ration US funding for Ukraine, which is expected to run out by the end of the month.
“We’ve gone to the bare bones of what we can provide . . . there’s no money,” says Bergmann.
White House officials and senior Democrats are still holding out hope for a deal on Ukraine funding, but their fears and warnings about the impact of a possible lapse have grown increasingly strident. They are not just worried about the immediate impact on Ukraine, but about what the failure to aid Kyiv will tell the world about US leadership.
“We know from intelligence community assessments that Putin believes Ukraine will fall within just months without renewed US support,” Mark Warner, the chair of the Senate intelligence committee, said this week. “Why, at this moment in time, would we prove Putin right?”
“We cannot allow dysfunction in the halls of Congress to prevent the United States from fulfilling our moral obligation to fund Ukraine,” Michael Bennet, a Colorado Democratic senator, tells the FT in an emailed statement. “If we can’t get our act together, it will send a horrible message to Putin,” he adds.
More at the link.
As I’ve repeatedly written, Putin’s strategy has been to create time for his genocidal re-invasion to become a fait accompli. To do so he has created a global food crisis, which has both spiked food costs, contributed to global inflation, and created a 2002-2023 version of the refugee crisis he created in 2012-2016. He also, with the aid of his ally Mohammed bin Salman, created an artificial spike in the price of oil, thereby creating an increase in the cost of gas in the US, as well as contributing to global inflation. All of this is intended to bring his proxies in the Europe into office to hamstring the EU and NATO. It is also intended to bring his, as well as his other neo-fascist allies’ (Orban, Erdogan, Bibi, MBS, MBZ) preferred candidate back into power in the US: Trump. Achieving either of these, let alone both, will set the conditions for him to quickly prevail in Ukraine. Reconsolidate, refit and resupply, and then begin again against his next target. Which will be an EU and NATO target.
White House officials and senior Democrats can hope all they want. Hope is not a strategy. And the strategy they had been pursuing has failed.
Putin’s economy, despite the sanctions, is on a war footing. Ours is not. Not a single EU or NATO member state’s is. Putin knows we have no authority or funding left to give anything more to Ukraine once the stuff on the way arrives. He will increase his nightly bombardments not to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense, but to deplete it. By the end of January, all those Patriot batteries and similar weapons systems will be stationary targets because they will be out of ammunition. And Putin will have his forces blow them up so that even if somehow a new supplemental aid package for Ukraine passes, there won’t be any of them left when the ammunition resupply finally arrives.
“Unless the West provides brigades like the 47th with ammunition, they will be unable to stop Putin’s troops.” https://t.co/XGTmCX9CkC
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) December 9, 2023
Putin doesn’t care how bad the ammunition and equipment is.
More complaints regarding North Korean ammo.
Russian military bloggers report that the North Korean ammunition is very unevenly produced. Even coming from the same production lot, it is obvious that deviations in the charge compositions and powder can be seen. It is very poor… pic.twitter.com/5Qhfb6Y5EK
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 9, 2023
He doesn’t care that his soldiers are eating snow to try to survive:
Interesting Russian diet ❄️ pic.twitter.com/9vwoU1GMQW
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 8, 2023
He doesn’t care that their corpses are stacked like cordwood or lie strewn on the ground outside Avdiivka, because he’s got an almost limitless supply of bodies to spare. I’m not posting the videos or imagery.
He will spill as much blood and spend as much treasure as it takes because he has far more blood and treasure than the Ukrainians do. Though the Ukrainians will spill all of theirs because they are unwilling to live under Putin’s domination.
Microsoft brings us the details of another major portion of Putin’s strategy to undermine support for Ukraine while increasing the chances for his preferred candidates and proxies to come to power.
Since July 2023, Russia-aligned influence actors have tricked celebrities into providing video messages that were then used in pro-Russian propaganda. These videos were then manipulated to falsely paint Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a drug addict. This is one of the insights in the latest biannual report on Russian digital threats from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center: “Russian Threat Actors Dig In, Prepare to Seize on War Fatigue”
As described in more detail in the report, this campaign aligns with the Russian government’s broader strategic efforts during the period from March to October 2023, across cyber and influence operations (IO), to stall Ukrainian military advances and diminish support for Kyiv.
Video messages from American celebrities are used in Russian propaganda
Unwitting American actors and others appear to have been asked, likely via video message platforms such as Cameo, to send a message to someone called “Vladimir”, pleading with him to seek help for substance abuse. The videos were then modified to include emojis, links and sometimes the logos of media outlets and circulated through social media channels to advance longstanding false Russian claims that the Ukrainian leader struggles with substance abuse. The Microsoft Threat Analysis Center has observed seven such videos since late July 2023, featuring personalities such as Priscilla Presley, musician Shavo Odadjian and actors Elijah Wood, Dean Norris, Kate Flannery, and John McGinley.
Prigozhin’s death has not slowed Russia’s influence operations
The August 2023 death of Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who owned the Wagner Group and the infamous Internet Research Agency troll farm, led many to question the future of Russia’s influence and propaganda capabilities. However, since then, Microsoft has observed widespread influence operations by Russian actors that are not linked to Prigozhin, indicating that Russia has the capacity to continue prolific and sophisticated malign influence operations without him.
Russia’s seasonal focus switched to degrade Ukrainian agriculture
Just as the past winter saw Russia focus on creating an energy crisis and attacking Ukraine’s energy sector, so this summer saw a convergence of Russian kinetic, cyber, and propaganda attacks on Ukraine’s agriculture sector. During the warmer growing and harvest months, Russia penetrated agribusinesses, stole data, deployed malware, and used military strikes to destroy grain that reportedly could have fed one million people for a year.[1] Microsoft’s report shows a strong alignment among its military, propaganda, and cyberattack efforts. For example, in a four-day period in late July 2023, following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russia:
- Attacked agricultural facilities in Odessa with 10 cruise missiles
- Launched a cyberattack on a Ukrainian agricultural equipment organization
- Disseminated false narratives in pro-Russian media outlets claiming, in one example, that Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO were abusing the grain corridor for terrorist purposes not humanitarian aid
It remains to be seen if this winter will see Russia revert to its seasonal focus on the Ukrainian energy sector. However, in September 2023, the Government Computer Emergency Response Team of Ukraine (CERT-UA) announced that Ukrainian energy networks were under sustained threat and Microsoft Threat Intelligence has observed artifacts of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) threat activity on Ukrainian energy sector networks from August through October 2023.
Russian cyberespionage prioritized war crimes investigations, governmental bodies, and think tanks
Russian authorities have not only been accused of war crimes, but have directed cyber resources to target the criminal investigators and prosecutors building cases against them. There is mounting tension between Moscow and organizations like the International Criminal Court (ICC), which issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin on war crimes charges in March 2023. Actors linked to Russian military and foreign intelligence breached Ukrainian legal and investigative networks and a law firm working on war crimes investigations as part of a wider effort that targeted global diplomatic, defense, public policy, and IT organizations. One of those threat actors, aligned to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR)and that we call Midnight Blizzard, has pursued access to more than 240 organizations since March 2023, predominantly in the U.S., Canada and European countries. Nearly 40% of the targeted organizations were governments, inter-governmental organizations, or policy-focused think tanks.
Russia shifted anti-Ukraine messaging to U.S., Israel
Sophisticated Russia-affiliated influence actor Storm-1099 (best known for a mass-scale website forgery operation dubbed “Doppelganger” by research group EU DisinfoLab) has been targeting international supporters of Ukraine since Spring 2022. The group creates unique, branded outlets such as the Reliable News Network (RNN) and stokes on-the-ground demonstrations, bridging the digital and physical worlds through amplification of these events. Despite efforts by technology companies and research entities to report on and mitigate its reach, Storm-1099 remains fully active. It has historically targeted Western European countries, especially Germany, but has now shifted focus to Israel and the U.S., reflecting an increased prioritization of content on the Israel-Hamas war, U.S. political themes, and the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Storm-1099 assets pushed the false claim that Hamas acquired Ukrainian weapons on the black market for its October 7 attack on Israel. Elsewhere, Russian-affiliated media pushed the false narrative that foreign recruits, including Americans, were transferred from Ukraine to join IDF forces in Gaza.
In late October 2023, French authorities suspected four Moldovan nationals of painting graffiti of the Star of David in public spaces in Paris, images of which were then amplified by Storm-1099 assets. Two of the Moldovans reportedly claimed that they were directed by a Russian-speaking individual, suggesting possible Russian responsibility for the incident, which strongly aligns with Russia’s Active Measures playbook. Russia likely assesses that the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is to its geopolitical advantage, as it believes the conflict distracts the West from the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian military infrastructure and defense partners remain key targets
Since Russian forces launched their spring 2023 offensive in Ukraine, Russian intelligence-affiliated cyber actors have concentrated their efforts on intelligence collection from Ukrainian communications and military infrastructure in combat zones, and from Ukraine’s partners. One actor, that we call Forest Blizzard, attempted to gain initial access to defense organizations via phishing messages that incorporated novel and evasive techniques. For example, in August, Forest Blizzard sent a phishing email to accountholders at a European defense organization.
Looking forward
Ukraine’s military chief has suggested the war with Russia is moving to a new stage of static trench warfare, protracting the conflict further. Russian cyber and influence operators will aim to demoralize the Ukrainian population and degrade Kyiv’s external sources of military and financial assistance, along with possible winter attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector.
Elsewhere, the 2024 U.S. presidential election and other major political contests give malign influence actors an opportunity to degrade support for Ukraine-supporting political candidates. To date, Russian threat actors and propagandists have not demonstrated sophisticated capabilities leveraging or integrating artificial intelligence (AI) tools into influence operations. However, Microsoft continues to monitor this area closely.
Microsoft is working across multiple fronts to protect our customers in Ukraine and worldwide from these multifaceted threats. With our Secure Future Initiative, we are integrating advances in AI-driven cyberdefense and secure software engineering, with efforts to fortify international norms to protect civilians from cyber threats. In the elections space, we are deploying resources across a core set of principles to safeguard voters, candidates, campaigns, and election authorities worldwide, as more than two billion people prepare to engage in the democratic process over the coming year.
Imagery at the link!
I’m going to be very, very blunt here: we DO NOT have an answer to what Russia is doing in the Information Domain. And that is all I will say on that other than our failure to understand it and respond to it appropriately not only puts Ukraine at great risk, it places the US, the EU member states, and our other allies at great risk. Great risk here should be understood as existential risk.
Before anyone asks in the comments: I do not believe in hope and I lost what little faith I had a long time ago.
Always believe in Christmas Miracle.
Ukrainian defenders do so!📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/iw0G9bNWM2
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 9, 2023
If there is a miracle in Ukraine this winter, it will be because the Ukrainians force it into existence with their blood, sweat, and tears. Unless the Baltic states and/or Poland decide to commit their forces regardless of what the EU or NATO wants, Ukraine is now on its own.
I think this is the Christmas tree erected on the side of the road on the outskirts of Bakhmut:
Головна ялинка країни! 🇺🇦🎄 pic.twitter.com/Ch2qHgoTPH
— Inside the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@Inside_the_AFU) December 9, 2023
Serebryansky Forest, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Serebryansky forest, Luhansk region
— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 9, 2023
Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Magyar’s Birds will fight till they are out of drones.
Another selection of footage from Magyar's birds FPV and Baba Yaga drones operating in the Krynky area, 8 December (subtitles). Extensive damage to Russian vehicles. pic.twitter.com/3y5kwzyyXx
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 9, 2023
Russian losses in Krynky area, Kherson region. 09/12/2023.
Video by Birds of Magyar unit. https://t.co/8CvI65TYkD pic.twitter.com/Ef4B5zQ1xe— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
But there is only so much that can be achieved by Magyar and his team.
Avdiivka:
If you wonder what US aid means to the Ukrainians, this is a good explainer:
Ukrainians on the importance of Bradley M2A2. pic.twitter.com/2Pa9fedMr9
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 9, 2023
Russian combatant-volunteer Filatov on Telegram continues covering the FPV war in Avdiivka, and specifically mentions that Russian MoD prioritises targets that will create "nice content for social media". Recently, he says, it resulted in the death of a promising commander called… pic.twitter.com/AXqiPvt8hT
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 9, 2023
Russian combatant-volunteer Filatov on Telegram continues covering the FPV war in Avdiivka, and specifically mentions that Russian MoD prioritises targets that will create “nice content for social media”. Recently, he says, it resulted in the death of a promising commander called “X” and his subordinates when they attempted to assault a building with pinned-down Ukrainians, but were taken apart by Ukrainian FPVs and, later, a tank.
Destruction of a Russian ground transport drone by a Ukrainian FPV kamikaze drone. Avdiivka front.https://t.co/s2Eutt3J5R pic.twitter.com/XkPvG0QzlS
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
Makiivka, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:
Strike on Russian oil depot in Makiivka, near Donetsk. pic.twitter.com/91vM8YcBCd
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 9, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here’s some adjacent(ish) material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
The spirit of Christmas.
📷: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/Zlgodt3Bri
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 9, 2023
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Adam L Silverman
@AlaskaReader: You’re welcome.
topclimber
So say we all.
Adam L Silverman
@topclimber: Actually a battlestar would be useful.
Jay
https://nitter.net/P_Kallioniemi/status/1733496591535747193#m
The Finnish Supreme Court ruled that the “Ruish” terrorist and illegal combatant cannot be extradited back to Ukraine, because he might face torture, (BS) or be “picked on” in prison, so Finland is going to try the war criminal themselves.
Typical ruZZian war criminal, when things get tough in the Fatherland, because you have pissed off powerful people or fellow Tovarishi, flee to the west and seek asylum and the good Western life.
strange visitor (from another planet)
adam, thank you for your efforts. my question is this: if the big lie-bowski can move military assets and funding to pay for his fucking wall, why can’t biden do something similar in regards to ukraine? i don’t understand why he can’t just order surplus or obsolete equipment to be sent to ukraine. it’s not like he needs congressional approval for it, the money’s already been spent.
what’s the fascist gop gonna do, impeach him?
Gin & Tonic
For people who don’t follow this that closely, “Vojislav Torden” is russian neo-Nazi Yan Petrovsky. He is (very) credibly accused of war crimes in Ukraine, fled to Finland before they closed their border with russia, and is taking advantage of the fact that Western democracies are not like russia,
topclimber
@Adam L Silverman: For cyber-proofing if nothing else.
Adam L Silverman
@strange visitor (from another planet): Because Biden will only do what is legal, as well as customary within the norms and rules of the presidency and the executive branch in regard to administration in general, running the military in specific, and relations with Congress also in specific. Trump did whatever he wanted, or tried to, because he believes that he is not bound by any law – constitutional/foundational or statutory, rules, norms, ethics, and/or traditions. Our system was not set up to handle someone like that, which is why it is still failing to hold him accountable and why he is still acting as if he is now and always has been unaccountable.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
https://nitter.net/P_Kallioniemi/status/1697162353207394605#m
Pekka Kallioniemi
@P_Kallioniemi
Aug 31
In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Norwegian mercenary, Yan Petrovsky AKA Voislav Torden AKA “Slavyan”. He’s best-known as the co-founder of the Rusich Group,for committing war crimes in Ukraine, and for trying to start a normal life after in Northern Europe. 1/20
For those who want an easy link.
strange visitor (from another planet)
@Adam L Silverman: i hate to “yes, but…”, but iirc there wasn’t legislation authorizing transfers when roosevelt was sending gear to the british before pearl harbor. was that illegal?
Anoniminous
Russia has a million North Korean shells and they aren’t worth shit. No wonder they have to use mass fire shoots to hit anything.
wjca
Not my area of expertise, but I seem to remember the effort being called something like Lend-Lease. Which would suggest that, just maybe, Biden could do something like lease obsolete equipment (say for $1 per year).**
And just picture the exploding heads when they rwalize that we have “loaned” ammunition, which has then been fired. Although, to be fair, in a couple years Ukraine may well have the capacity to manufacture said ammo. Which would let them at least offer to return a like amount.
The biggest obvious challenge would be paying for shipping. But shuffling assets around is routine, and if that equipment just happened to be already at US bases in Europe when it was leased, delivery could probably be managed.
** EDT, Wouldn’t you figure $1 to lease a main battle tank was reasonable…?
Jay
@wjca:
https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/lend-lease-act
Canada has a bunch of old 122mm rockets that need to be decomissioned.
The current plan is to pay Ukraine $450 million dollars to “decomission” them.
Anoniminous
If the Biden administration wasn’t comprised of cowardly fuck heads they could sell surplus or retired military equipment to Ukraine on long-term contracts at scrap prices. But it is, so they won’t.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: As always, thanks for doing this!
Tonight the FTFNYT has a headline: “State Department Bypasses Congress to Approve Israel’s Order for Tank Ammunition”. (link– may be paywalled)
Is this legal? Is this anyway different from declaring stuff surplus and sending it to Ukraine?
If it’s not different, President Biden and SecDef Austin are going to get letters from me about this.
Omnes Omnibus
I’ll just point out that none of us know what is going on behind the scenes in the administration. We won’t know if they are working on any of the things suggested here or other plans until and/or unless they are announced as done. Maybe nothing is happening. Maybe a lot is happening. I am not interested in debating the point. If anyone wants to call my observation hopium, they are free to do so. They are also free to kiss my ass.
Adam L Silverman
@strange visitor (from another planet): @wjca: We have a lend-lease program for Ukraine. It runs out of money in about ten days.
Adam L Silverman
@Anoniminous: They’re not cowardly fuck heads. They’re smart people with very little appetite for risk. And the President is a very humane and compassionate person. There’s a difference in ways and means even if it reaches the same ends.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: This is why it’s legal:
The Biden administration, unfortunately, does not seem interested in making a similar declaration for Ukraine. Which is why they are not doing the same type of sale or transfer for Ukraine.
Geminid
@wjca: The arms shipments to England, and later to Russia, were authorized by tbe Lend Lease Act. Roosevelt proposed it to tbe new Congress in January,1941 and Congress passed it March 11. I think Great Britain was paying cash for arms up until then but was starting to run out of reserves.
In July of 1940, Roosevelt swapped 50 older destroyers for some basing rights. I think he did that on his own authority, but it was a one-off.
Chris
@Adam L Silverman:
What the ever-loving fuck is wrong with these fucking people.
(Not directed at you, obviously).
Another Scott
Thanks for the update.
At the risk of drawing your wrath, and derailing the thread, I will ask your indulgence:
I understand you may feel that way, but, with respect, you don’t have a very good record at predicting what is going to happen and you might want to rephrase statements like that going forward.
For instance: February 26, 2022:
Sometimes muddling through is the sensible course of action, because the alternatives are worse.
The US and NATO will continue to support Ukraine, IMHO, even with the infuriating delays. Politics is slow, and supply chains are long and complex, but things are moving even with the delays in DC.
I’m not trying to be a smartass and pick on you. I’m trying to be helpful, believe it or not. Nobody knows the future.
My $0.02.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Andrya
@Adam L Silverman: Thanks for the answer. If I understand correctly, the Biden administration could declare an emergency re: Ukraine? They just don’t want to?
Given the threat to NATO countries if Ukraine falls, Ukraine is far more of an emergency than Israel. Shouldn’t we all be deluging the White House with letters demanding a similar action for Ukraine?
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: They were faced with that decision. They made the wrong choice. Which is why Ukraine is now on its own and we are losing a world war.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Adam L Silverman: And, please correct me if I’m wrong, I seem to recall Pompeo sending 8b or so to the Saudis using the same mechanism, for which he received a tongue-lashing at most. Nice to uphold institutional norms until there’s no institution left, fists to a knife fight and all of that. I do hope that the creativity and humanity of the Biden administration will find an end run around this.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: Yes, they could declare an emergency in regard to Ukraine. Whether they don’t want to or don’t see what is happening there as an emergency, I cannot answer. Ultimately the result is the same.
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: Yep. That’s in the next paragraph of the NY Times reporting.
Chris
@Andrya:
Yeah, the juxtaposition with Israel is fucking infuriating and just ads insult to the injury.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman: Ukraine is not on its own.
Cheers,
Scott.
Adam L Silverman
@Chris: It goes beyond that. Remember several weeks before the re-invasion when I said we needed to park a carrier group in the Irish Sea, a Marine float in the Black Sea, and a Marine float in the North Sea as a deterrent? We didn’t do any of that. We had two carrier groups and a Marine float making top steam for the Med and the Red Sea within five hours of Hamas’s attack on 7 OCT.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Ukraine is now on its own.
Andrya
@Chris: The juxtaposition with Saudi fucking Arabia is two orders of magnitude more maddening. They murdered an American national and got away with it- and now they are cozying up to putin.
My letters to Biden and Austin will be mailed tomorrow morning- not that they will tremble (oh no! an indignant letter from Andrya!) but we have to do what we can. I hope others will do the same.
Chris
@Another Scott:
Unless something seriously unblocks the aid package currently languishing in Congress, it’s about to be.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Adam L Silverman: The very thin silver lining is that the Biden administration may be open to influence by citizens. My senators, (1) Baldwin and (2) Johnson, either (1) don’t need or (2) are indurate to any feedback. Do you have a sense of who most effectively to call or write or visit? Thx.
YY_Sima Qian
The US & other Western countries have to stop couching military aid to Ukraine in terms of USD. For all of the hundreds of billions spent, the quantity of equipment & munitions is actually not all that impressive, certainly relative to the need. Fiat currency is what we use to intermediate value of goods & services in our financialized economies, but at the end of the day one cannot eat greenbacks or shoot them off as bullets. It is no coincidence that the Ukrainian MOD always describe Western aid in terms of qty of arms & munitions, & not in monetary terms. We see the same blindspot in analysis when US commentators highlight that the US GDP has surged further ahead of the EU, the PRC & Japan in nominal dollar terms, primarily due to inflation & dollar appreciation, & assert it as evidence of US economic strength.
A huge issue for NATO defense spending in general & US in particular is that these countries are getting very little bang for the buck, especially when it comes to procurement of equipment & munitions. This is a result of price gauging by the MIC, not solely because of a mismatch in demand & supply. Western governments have largely failed to rein in the “sellers’ price inflation”, allowed excessive consolidation of MIC into monopolies & oligopolies, & have been irresponsible stewards of tax payers’ money. The exorbitant price gauging have multiple perverse consequences: it constrains NATO’s ability to upgrade & expand its arsenal, it limits the effectiveness of Western aid to Ukraine, it crowds out social welfare spending (even the US) everywhere that rely upon purchasing western weapons (worsening the tear of social fabric), it places the US & its E. Asian allies at a relative disadvantage when it comes to military deterrence vis-a-vis the PRC (on top of the USN/USAF facing the tyranny of distance in the Western Pacific & operating on exterior lines outside of the 1st Island Chain). USN leadership has repeatedly decried that US naval programs takes 5 times as long to complete compared to Chinese PLAN ones, & cost 3 times as much to procure. This issue is not limited to the naval realm. Before anyone mentions quality, we have seen in Ukraine that superior quality cannot overcome significant disadvantages in quantity, if that quality is of insufficient quantity. Every assessment coming out of DOD & US think tanks state that the PRC at least is rapidly closing the quality gap, & not just as exercises to bolster the case to increase defense spending further. The quality gap wrt Russia & Iran are increasing, but there are serious questions whether NATO militaries can sustain the munitions expenditures in a peer level war.
The only countries that are [somewhat] friendly to the West, where arms come at relatively reasonable prices, are Türkiye & South Korea, because their arms industries are state owned & subsidized.
Chris
@Andrya:
It’s less the worthiness of the ally and more their need that I was referring to.
Israel – completely irrespective of what anyone thinks about the justice of this war – is a first-world industrialized country that’s by far the biggest military power in its region. Fighting a failed state that it’s had under lockdown for decades. Which only got as far as it did in the first place because the Israelis decided to yank a bunch of soldiers off the border to put them on Trail of Tears duty elsewhere.
Ukraine is a country literally fighting for its survival against a greater power that can afford to outspend and out-bleed it, unless enough foreign assistance can turn the tables.
The fact that we’ve rushed to provide this kind of assistance to Israel, which is in no existential danger and would be, at most, mildly and temporarily inconvenienced by a lack of new U.S. weapons, while continuing to drag our feet on Ukraine is just a massive middle finger to every Ukrainian.
Andrya
@Chris: Yes, I totally see that.
For anyone who knows more about this than I do- to whom (other than Biden & Austin) should we write?
I’m totally sick about this. This has the potential to be a humanitarian catastrophe exceeding the Rwanda genocide and on a par with Operation Barbarossa.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: While I do not believe terming the globe spanning geopolitical cold war w/ Russia as a “world war” is accurate or productive, nor do I think putting the US & western economies on war footing is either necessary or desirable, putting parts of the western MIC on war footing (starting w/ howitzer rounds & mortar shells) would short circuit the dynamic of “sellers’ price inflation”.
There is zero reason for the defense industry to be totally privatized & repurposed for maximizing financial returns for shareholders.
Adam L Silverman
@Wombat Probability Cloud: I do not. The issue is not the Senate Democrats. Nor the House Democrats. The congressional issue is McConnell and the 20 or so of his most extreme members in the Senate and Johnson and the Freedom Caucus and another 100 or so House Republicans. The administration issue is that Biden’s team miscalculated regarding what they would be able to do when. When you put the two together, you get where we are.
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Adam L Silverman: I’ll leave it here because I don’t have any real insight, but my feeling is that it’s up to the admin to say fuck it, sue me, and push things forward (especially if expressed in a delicate, oh-so-diplomatic way that they can avoid half of the criticism). Time for some bold action if we care, and I think they do.
StringOnAStick
@Andrya: As for sending letters to federal political officials, my friend’s congressional aid son says anything in an envelope is destroyed and not opened, a leftover from the anthrax attacks a number of years ago. Postcards get read and tallied as do faxes, voice mail and email. I was shocked to hear this.
Andrya
@Wombat Probability Cloud: Please, write and tell them so!
Andrya
@StringOnAStick: Thanks, I was planning on USPS with envelope and stamp, but now I will email.
TeezySkeezy
Yes, I’ve come to think that the informational warfare being waged against the West is like a ballistic missile and the old school methods we are using to try and divert it are just BBs.
YY_Sima Qian
Throughout the course of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, realists & Leftists (the serious ones who I consider to be arguing in good faith, not the obvious Putin apologists) have argued that the US & NATO should not be encouraging Ukraine to aim for total victory & discount any prospect of a negotiated settlement, if the US & NATO are not ultimately willing to do what it takes to enable Ukraine to secure total victory on the battlefield. They have argued that it is immoral for the US & the West to be stringing Ukraine along w/ promises of unconditional support, when that support was/is not sustainable indefinitely. They asserted that the asymmetry of interests between Russia & the US wrt Ukraine is too vast. I am beginning to think they were/are more correct in that assessment, as far as the US & Western Europe are concerned.
They are still wrong that Putin’s expansionist revanchism can be bought off by Finlandizing Ukraine. The current invasion has made it abundantly clear that Putin is not driven by Realist calculations. They still fail to recognize that Putin has no interest in a lasting negotiated settlement, & that Ukraine has agency, too.
As for Poland & the Baltics joining the war on Ukraine’s side if the US & Western Europe pulls back: 1) I think the Baltic States would be doing well just defending their own sovereignties; 2) while the Polish military is probably capable of marching through Belarus & onto Moscow (or at least conquer Kaliningrad) , given the severely depleted state of the Russian military, that is a course of action that might risk deployment of tactical nukes by Putin in response, & is certain to irreparably fracture NATO. If the Polish Army is fed to the meat grinder in Ukraine instead, I am not sure they will have a decisive impact. & when thousands of body bags start to come home, the nativists in Poland (w/ Putin’s help) will agitate for withdrawal & overthrow of the political elites.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: I do not think the Baltics or Poland are going to enter the war on behalf of Ukraine. If any state would, however, it would be one or more of them.
Alison Rose
If this comes to pass, I don’t want to hear a single fucking word from any politician in any Western country about how sad and awful it is. They have no right to pretend to give a shit after the fact if they won’t give enough of a shit before the fact to fend it off.
I’m too scared and angry to say anything more.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Alison Rose
@StringOnAStick: Well…I mean, maybe that’s true for some but I can’t imagine for all. FWIW my mother sent Obama a letter in an envelope and he answered it (and not a form response, he directly answered what she’d said) so at least some letters sent to POTUS got opened. If he could, I don’t see why MoCs couldn’t.
Another Scott
@StringOnAStick: My rep has an official webform. I imagine that they like that form of contact because they can immediately see who is in their congressional district (by zip code), etc., while paper correspondence takes more work.
I assume most other Democratic reps are similar (dunno about the folks in the red hats).
And it’s personal, unlike the “click here to sign our form letter to your congressman!!11 And send us $50 too, please!!11” stuff we get in the e-mail.
Cheers,
Scott.
Comrade Bukharin
@YY_Sima Qian: Putin would not hesitate to flatten Warsaw. Heck, the Finns probably could be in St Petersburg in a week, but then bye-bye Helsinki.
Kyle Rayner
It occurs to me that perhaps wisening up to the effect it was having and shutting up about nuclear weapons was also a part of Russia’s strategy to get Ukraine’s allies to lose interest and make aid more of a partisan topic rather than an existential one. Despite there being a lot of people at the time saying, “No don’t send aid that will make Putin angry and kill us all,” it seems the overall effect of the topic on the conversation was pressure to aid. I’m certainly not saying we need to go back to that anxiety, just thinking that this is yet another way the immediacy of the crisis has become less vivid to most people.
I hate that part of the fight to survive is vying for relevance and visibility with others trying to survive, and the enemy is specifically and intentionally trying to bury Ukrainians’, essentially, self-promotion in the online metrics, on top of the physical violence. Like an extra cruelty on top of everything. I understand propaganda and framing is an old tool of war, but idk the fact that regular people with phone cameras now participate by default is still a shocking development of 21st century technological advancement to me.
Thank you, Adam. Take care.
Jay
@Comrade Bukharin:
As pootie poot has proven, time and time again. his red lines are empty.
hrprogressive
So, what next?
Because the tenor of these posts continue to move to a place where I feel like we’re going to see a timeline where the Soviet Union 2.0 arises, and The West is utterly powerless to stop it, but is ultimately defeated by it.
Is that really where we’re headed?
Because The West writ large right now doesn’t seem to want to do anything of merit, and they also seem to refuse to see the danger.
Do they just assume they would come out on top “just because”? Or?
Like, the endgame for the West appears to be the meme picture of the old man shrugging and going “Guess I’ll Die” because…what else are they doing to stop any of this potential scenario?
I hate to sound too pessimistic, and I am sure I’m one of the bleaker commenters here, but, like.
Should we be researching bunkers and MRE’s or something?
Should we be preparing for the fall of “small l, small d” liberal democracy in the next 5-10 years?
If I’m painting an overly alarmist picture, I’d be happy to be talked off the ledge, but I my eyes don’t appear to be deceiving me with respect to what isn’t happening.
Another Scott
@hrprogressive:
Biden’s in LA for several fundraisers this weekend.
The House and Senate are scheduled to be in session until Thursday the 14th.
Deadlines focus the mind. Nobody in congress wants to stay in DC beyond the 14th.
Lots of people want a deal. Lots.
If there’s to be a quick deal on Ukraine, Israel, ROK, and border funding, it will likely be in the next few days with Biden signing it at the end of the week or the weekend.
We’ll see what happens.
Cheers,
Scott.
hrprogressive
@Another Scott:
I’m not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but reporting like this doesn’t really give me any indication that “lots of people want a deal”
Seems to me like the Fascist Republican Party are keen to do Putin’s bidding, to be quite honest.
wjca
So far, it appears that the Ukrainians will keep fighting, regardless of any outside calls to turn the Donbas into the Sudetenland. And that is the parallel we are looking at. Certainly their situation will be dire is outside aid dries up. But I suspect they won’t roll over, any more than they did at the beginning of this invasion.
Or perhaps you see someone in Ukraine who has the necessary stature, and would be willing to head up a Vichy Ukraine government…
YY_Sima Qian
That was my point in that Ukraine has agency, ignored by the Realist & Leftist perspectives. If Western aid dries up, & the Ukrainian Armed Forces could no longer sustain the attritional warfare along the current Lines of Actual Control, I expect Ukraine to pivot toward defense on the conventional battlefield & mount an intense insurgency in the Russian occupied territories.
wjca
@YY_Sima Qian:
Ah, we’re on the same page, and I misread your comment. Sorry.
bjacques
It’s bleak and no mistake. But I’m still gonna wait another week before despairing. Living in a foreign-speaking nation, my local franchise is limited to two Senators and one Congressman, all three being shit.
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: However, that is separate from whether the U.S. & NATO should be setting expectations in Ukraine that they ultimately cannot fulfill.
YY_Sima Qian
@bjacques: The only hope is that the GOP places greater value in unconditional support of Israel & waging a Cold War w/ the PRC, & they will allow the entire package of military aid to Ukraine, Israel & Taiwan to go through together. OTOH, the GOP is certain to blame the failure of passing such a package on “Dem irresolution” in confronting Hamas, Iran & the PRC.
Plenty of political appointees from the last 6 mo. of the Trump presidency (when it was at the craziest), & thus destined for higher posts in a potential 2nd Trump presidency, have been making the case for over a year that the War in Ukraine is a distraction from the “more important” & “inevitable” confrontation w/ the PRC. Just how 155 mm artillery shells, 120 mm mortar bombs, MBTs, APCs, IFVs & short ranged smart munitions are relevant to any fight along the 1st Island Chain is an enduring mystery.
NotoriousJRT
@Chris: FWIW much of this is essentially is what I have communicated to my senators and rep via phone and the President by email multiple times including moments ago. I have no illusions of moving the needle, but it is an action I can take, so I do.
YY_Sima Qian
A aspect of future warfare:
Jesse
Thanks Adam. As the temperature rises around here I just want to express my thanks. I also want to draw attaention that pretty much all commenters here care deeply about this issue. Many aren’t standing by. Speaking for myself as an American abroad, since the invasion last year, I have begun working out and learning more about the military, in my own personal preparation for war. No, I don’t think it’s likely. But I consider it possible. I also seek ways to try to assist from where I am, like other commenters.
Anyway, thanks again.
Another Scott
We know Adam has expressed his less than glowing opinions on ISW’s updates, but as a counterpoint, or points with different emphasis, here’s their December 9 update.
e.g.
Worth a click, IMHO.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
Actually thinking about pesky details like that would be atypical. Assuming they even know enough to have a clue that any and all munitions are not totally interchangable. I don’t think that’s the way the smart money bets.
For all their enthusiasm for military adventurism, pretty much none of them were willing to serve themselves. I suppose massive ignorance makes it easier to believe fantasies. Certainly they take that approach on other issues.