(Image by My Dog Sighs)

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

From the first days of January, we will start steering the new year towards further support for Ukraine – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 December 2023 – 22:01

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, I would like to congratulate the warriors of our military counterintelligence of the Security Service of Ukraine. The warriors are celebrating their professional day. And they are not just brave warriors – they are exemplary in their courage and efficiency. They are the ones to look up to. They are fighting successfully both on land and in our sea. The occupiers have already experienced this – hundreds of our powerful operations. Everyone knows about the damage to the Crimean Bridge, about the work of our special drones, especially at sea. They effectively detect spies and traitors. And this is only a small part of what the Security Service’s military counterintelligence actually does. Warriors, I thank you for each display of your strength, for your courage, for all your victories in battles. In a nutshell – well done!

Today I would like to thank our partners in the European Union for approving the 12th package of sanctions. Importantly, for the first time, there is a ban on Russian diamonds. There are new measures against circumventing sanctions and against the supply of dual-use goods and technologies to Russia… There are new restrictions on imports from Russia. All of this will really help to reduce the economic foundation of the war, and we will continue to work with our partners to ensure that the sanctions imposed by Europe work globally.

Today I held several meetings on our work this winter, both international and some aspects of domestic. We already see how we will start steering the new year towards the protection of international law and further support for Ukraine in this war from the first days of January. There are specific agreements and a specific schedule of actions in various areas. This year has shown that the potential of bilateral long-term support programs – not only from the world’s most powerful countries – is a tool that not only helps effectively, but also sends a clear signal to everyone in the world – a signal of steadfast support for Ukraine. We will continue to work on such programs. And I thank every state and every leader who has already adopted the respective formats of work.

One more thing.

Regarding not political, but public support for Ukraine and Ukrainians. Today in Kyiv, on the Walk of the Brave, we unveiled a plaque dedicated to Howard Buffett, an entrepreneur and philanthropist who has been sincerely helping our people and our country since the spring of 2022, practically from the beginning of the full-scale invasion. One person helps with hundreds of millions of dollars. This includes support for demining, assistance in the treatment and rehabilitation of soldiers, a project to build kitchen factories in Bucha and Lozova – they are designed for more than 10,000 meals each and will provide food, in particular, to schools and kindergartens in Kyiv and Kharkiv regions. This is a significant support for the First Lady’s initiative on school nutrition. And today, together with Olena, Howard has just visited the newly built kitchen factory in Bucha. I thank him for this personal example of how much one person can do for others. Ukraine will always remember and always be grateful to all who help us, who support our people.

Glory to all whose strength becomes the strength of Ukraine! Glory to all who fight and work for our independence!

Glory to Ukraine!

For those of you marking Advent on your calendars this season:

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 18

Today, we express our gratitude to our Spanish (@Defensagob), American (@DeptofDefense), and Swedish (@ForsvarsdepSv) friends for Hawk missile systems.

"Homing All the Way Killer" or Hawk became a reliable guard of the Ukrainian sky. This… pic.twitter.com/JmBnvK6Boo

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 18, 2023

Ukrainian Advent Calendar: Day 18

Today, we express our gratitude to our Spanish (@Defensagob), American (@DeptofDefense), and Swedish (@ForsvarsdepSv) friends for Hawk missile systems.

“Homing All the Way Killer” or Hawk became a reliable guard of the Ukrainian sky. This system effectively shoots down russian kamikaze drones and missiles and protects the lives of our people.

One more Weapon of Victory is coming tomorrow. Can you guess it?

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

Denmark:

Denmark has set aside 1.8b Danish crowns ($264m) to help finance a Swedish initiative to donate CV90 armoured combat vehicles to Ukraine, the Danish Ministry of Defence said in a statement on Monday. https://t.co/WgQ0Jqf8vR pic.twitter.com/mLKFa9HF1y

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 18, 2023

The cost:

‘U.S. Marine vet in Ukraine repulsed Russian attack in final moments: Graham Dale is among more than 30 US military vets who have died in Ukraine, and at least the 10th Marine Corps veteran.’ https://t.co/xo87ZcuezH

— Alex Plitsas 🇺🇸 (@alexplitsas) December 18, 2023

Task & Purpose has the details:

A U.S. Marine veteran born in Ireland who later immigrated to the United States has been killed in Ukraine while repelling an assault by Russian troops that had broken through his unit’s line, a fellow American veteran told Task & Purpose.

Graham Dale was killed in close-quarters fighting on December 9. He was at least the 10th former U.S. Marine killed in Ukraine, according to a list compiled by Task & Purpose of U.S. veterans who have died in Ukraine since 2022.

On Dec. 9, Dale and a team of Ukrainian troops left the safety of their defensive fortifications to prevent a Ukrainian position that was surrounded by Russian troops from falling, said U.S. Army veteran Ryan O’Leary, leads foreign volunteers in “Chosen Company,” which is attached to Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade.

“Instead of retreating or hiding, he ran into the combat,” O’Leary told Task & Purpose. “Dale killed multiple enemy soldiers before being wounded. The enemy assault was stopped due to his actions, and those of the Ukrainians with him which prevented the line from collapsing.”

Dale was wounded in the fighting, O’Leary said. As he tried to get back under cover, he was hit again after a Russian drone dropped two munitions. His teammates had brought him back to safety and performed life-saving measures on him, but he died of his wounds.

Initially, Dale traveled to Ukraine to provide humanitarian assistance for those in need, he told KXAN-TV in Austin for a May 2022 story. Once there, he linked up with other veterans.

“You realize that you are the boots on the ground. You are that line in the sand,” Dale told the television station at the time. “There is no magic government button that presses, and millions of resources make themselves available. Generally speaking, it’s civilian volunteers stepping up to the plate. (They) are the ones that help most with the people during and after these kinds of disasters and wars.”

Fiery Christmas gifts for the enemy.

📹: @United24media pic.twitter.com/5Bau6ay51A

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 18, 2023

Despite the upbeat video, the Ukrainians have begun self rationing their remaining munitions, which has affected their planning and operations. The BBC has the details:

Ukraine has warned it is already being forced to downsize some military operations because of a drop-off in foreign aid.

Top general Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said troops faced ammunition shortages along the “entire front line”, creating a “big problem” for Kyiv.

It comes as billions of dollars of US and EU aid have been held up amid political wrangles.

Ukraine said it hoped to boost its own ammunition industry with western help.

But it relies heavily on western supplies, particularly on deliveries of long-range missiles and air defence systems, to fight occupying Russian forces.

Gen Tarnavskyi told the Reuters news agency that the country lacked artillery shells, particularly for its Soviet-era weapons.

“The volumes we have are not sufficient, given our needs,” he said. “So, we’re redistributing it. We’re re-planning tasks that we had set for ourselves and making them smaller because we need to provide for them.”

He said that diminishing foreign military aid was already having an impact on the battlefield, and forcing a change in tactics.

“In some areas, we moved to defence, and in some we continue our offensive actions.

“And we are preparing our reserves for our further large-scale actions. Their intention remains. The only thing is that their actions change, tactics change.”

His comments come in the wake of setbacks in both the EU and US. Republicans in the US Congress first blocked a $60bn (£47bn) military package for Ukraine earlier this month.

That was followed by Hungary’s blocking of the EU’s €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) financial aid deal last week.

EU leaders however said Ukraine would not be left without support.

Ukraine was already facing an ammunition shortage as Western powers struggled to maintain supplies.

The EU pledged to send one million artillery shells by March 2024, but so far only 480,000 have been either delivered or are in the pipeline.

Ukraine is already using ammunition faster than partners can produce it. A report by the Estonian defence ministry said Kyiv needed a minimum of 200,000 artillery shells a month to retain an edge against Russia.

“Sustaining this rate will empty European and US stockpiles over 2024 and will require significant foreign purchases of ammunition,” it said.

Speaking to the BBC, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Ivan Havryliuk said the country was ramping up production of kamikaze drones “to compensate [for] the lack of artillery shells”.

Additionally, it was increasing its own production of artillery rounds “for almost the entire range” of its Soviet-era weapons.

Much more at the link!

Western intelligence agencies have assessed that if the US aid pipeline is not turned back on, the Ukrainians will be in serious trouble within several months. And that’s providing they don’t experience a major setback along the way. CNN has the details.

As a Ukraine aid package continues to stall in the US Congress, America and its allies are assessing what they describe as the potentially debilitating impact on Ukraine’s defense and longer-term prospects of losing the war, multiple US and European officials told CNN.

“There is no guarantee of success with us, but they are certain to fail without us,” a senior US military official said.

The most immediate concern is the impact on Ukraine’s ongoing counteroffensive in the east and south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to make significant forward progress even when US support was still coming. “If looking at taking and holding further territory,” said one European diplomat, “it is hard to see how that could succeed without continued US support.”

More broadly, Western officials fear the loss or further delay of US support will impact aid from its allies. On Friday, Ukraine suffered another blow when Hungary blocked further European Union aid, though talks on the issue are expected to resume in January. The news underlined the scale of the challenge facing Kyiv and many fear that if the US fails to continue providing support, European nations will follow.

“If we go south,” said Democratic Rep. Mike Quigley, who co-chairs the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, “our allies will too.”

Now, Western intelligence agencies are currently calculating how long Ukraine could hold out without US and NATO help. One senior US military official estimated months, with a worst-case scenario of a significant setback or even defeat by the summer. A Russian victory would not just be dire news for Ukraine, it would be disaster for wider European security and a major blow to the US.

Asked about the continued delay in US aid, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told CNN from Brussels, “We can’t talk about war fatigue right now because if we do and give in, then Putin wins and that will mean a catastrophe to everybody. That will mean more conflicts, more wars, more scarcity of food supply, all the different worries that come along with it. So that’s why we have to make an effort now.”

Ukrainian forces are already rationing ammunition, US and Ukrainian officials told CNN, as Russian forces fire back at a ratio of five to seven times greater than Ukrainian forces are able to. A senior Ukrainian military official told CNN that Ukrainian commanders believe the impact on their firepower has led to additional Ukrainian casualties.

Without additional US aid, Western officials assess that Ukraine would first run out of long-range missiles, then air defense missiles and later artillery ammunition and short-range missiles such as shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

Assessments of what a Ukrainian defeat would mean for Europe is causing deep fears among some of America’s closest European allies.

“I don’t think people fully realize what Ukraine’s fall would actually mean,” said a European diplomat. “We would see horrible things: ethnic cleansing and total destruction of Ukraine. Remember what they did in Bucha. So, it is already success if we can prevent that from happening. And that is why we must carry on.”

More at the link!

The Ukrainians are also having a hard time meeting their personnel requirements. The Economist via the Internet Archive has the details:

The new recruits came from a variety of backgrounds, but they shared one thing: after rudimentary training in western Europe, none of them expected to be deployed to an assault unit at the hottest section of the Ukrainian front line. Some had signed up voluntarily, expecting to be given places in units that suited their profiles: as drone operators or artillery men. Others were plucked from their villages with little warning. One older recruit didn’t even have the chance to pick up his false teeth. After less than a week in the trenches of the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, the platoon of 20 had been reduced by six. Three had been killed in action, three seriously wounded.

This is one of the worst recruitment stories, but it is far from isolated. Ukraine is desperately looking to plug its front lines against new Russian attacks. No army offers new recruits guarantees about where they will be deployed, let alone in wartime, and the assault brigades are among the most desperate units.

The new recruits came from a variety of backgrounds, but they shared one thing: after rudimentary training in western Europe, none of them expected to be deployed to an assault unit at the hottest section of the Ukrainian front line. Some had signed up voluntarily, expecting to be given places in units that suited their profiles: as drone operators or artillery men. Others were plucked from their villages with little warning. One older recruit didn’t even have the chance to pick up his false teeth. After less than a week in the trenches of the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, the platoon of 20 had been reduced by six. Three had been killed in action, three seriously wounded.

This is one of the worst recruitment stories, but it is far from isolated. Ukraine is desperately looking to plug its front lines against new Russian attacks. No army offers new recruits guarantees about where they will be deployed, let alone in wartime, and the assault brigades are among the most desperate units.

But what lawyers describe as a “deployment lottery” is straining the recruitment process. Army chiefs are struggling to fill places with the willing; some are resorting to conscription raids on gyms and shopping centres. Few of those who are signed up this way make good soldiers. “We’re seeing 45- to 47-year-olds,” complains one senior officer. “They are out of breath by the time they reach the front line.”

Recognising the problem, in September Ukraine’s defence ministry began work on a new mobilisation strategy. Illarion Pavliuk, a spokesman for the ministry, says part of the problem lies in the army’s success: many citizens no longer view the war in the existential terms they did immediately after Russia’s invasion in February 2022. “Some mistakenly think there is someone else who can do the job for them,” he says.

The reforms aim to give those who are wavering more choice: new recruits can, more or less, sign up for a specific position. A new digital register will improve the ministry’s understanding of Ukraine’s manpower resources. There will be a clearer system of rest and rotations. Eventually, volunteers will be mobilised for a finite period, not indefinitely as is the case now.

There are several examples of successful recruitment campaigns into individual units. The 3rd Assault Brigade, created nine months into the war as a branch of Ukraine’s special forces, is perhaps the most visible. Skyscraper-sized adverts in Ukraine’s cities glamorise life as one of the brigade’s stormtroopers, slaying goblin-like caricatures of evil. But no less important is the brigade’s reputation for competent command, good equipment and low attrition rates. New recruits typically undergo months of training, unlike the one-month standard.

The new recruits came from a variety of backgrounds, but they shared one thing: after rudimentary training in western Europe, none of them expected to be deployed to an assault unit at the hottest section of the Ukrainian front line. Some had signed up voluntarily, expecting to be given places in units that suited their profiles: as drone operators or artillery men. Others were plucked from their villages with little warning. One older recruit didn’t even have the chance to pick up his false teeth. After less than a week in the trenches of the Donbas, in eastern Ukraine, the platoon of 20 had been reduced by six. Three had been killed in action, three seriously wounded.

This is one of the worst recruitment stories, but it is far from isolated. Ukraine is desperately looking to plug its front lines against new Russian attacks. No army offers new recruits guarantees about where they will be deployed, let alone in wartime, and the assault brigades are among the most desperate units.

But what lawyers describe as a “deployment lottery” is straining the recruitment process. Army chiefs are struggling to fill places with the willing; some are resorting to conscription raids on gyms and shopping centres. Few of those who are signed up this way make good soldiers. “We’re seeing 45- to 47-year-olds,” complains one senior officer. “They are out of breath by the time they reach the front line.”

Recognising the problem, in September Ukraine’s defence ministry began work on a new mobilisation strategy. Illarion Pavliuk, a spokesman for the ministry, says part of the problem lies in the army’s success: many citizens no longer view the war in the existential terms they did immediately after Russia’s invasion in February 2022. “Some mistakenly think there is someone else who can do the job for them,” he says.

The reforms aim to give those who are wavering more choice: new recruits can, more or less, sign up for a specific position. A new digital register will improve the ministry’s understanding of Ukraine’s manpower resources. There will be a clearer system of rest and rotations. Eventually, volunteers will be mobilised for a finite period, not indefinitely as is the case now.

There are several examples of successful recruitment campaigns into individual units. The 3rd Assault Brigade, created nine months into the war as a branch of Ukraine’s special forces, is perhaps the most visible. Skyscraper-sized adverts in Ukraine’s cities glamorise life as one of the brigade’s stormtroopers, slaying goblin-like caricatures of evil. But no less important is the brigade’s reputation for competent command, good equipment and low attrition rates. New recruits typically undergo months of training, unlike the one-month standard.

Khrystyna Bondarenko, a spokesperson for the brigade, says it has no shortage of volunteers. By the start of next year the brigade will be Ukraine’s largest, she says, at around the size of a nato division. (Ukraine’s army does not have divisions.) The majority of its new recruits are under 25, and she turns down 150 applications a month from minors. “No one is saying there are millions of people waiting to fight in Avdiivka [a town in the Donbas that has recently seen fierce fighting],” she says. “But there are people you can work with.”

Russia, too, is having difficulty mobilising the numbers it needs. Its tactic of hurling vast numbers of men at defended positions, often without proper equipment, can mean daily losses as high as 1,000. But the fundamentals point to a gargantuan challenge for Ukraine. With a pool of potential soldiers about four times greater, Russia looks favoured in the long run. In its prisons and poorest areas, joining the army looks rational.

Elsewhere, the Kremlin has been able to meet its minimum needs with secret recruitment for a full-scale war that it still pretends is not happening. If it did need to ramp up its mobilisation the Kremlin would need to admit that Russia is at war. That would not be without political consequences.

Ukrainian critics of the government in Kyiv, meanwhile, charge that the country is only “pretending to mobilise.” Viktor Kevlyuk, a retired colonel who oversaw the implementation of mobilisation policy for the western half of the country from 2014—when Russia first invaded—to 2021, says Ukraine risks falling into a trap. Russia will step up its mobilisation after its presidential election in March is over, he thinks. (hur, Ukraine’s military-intelligence agency, agrees.)

Vladimir Putin has already signed an edict increasing the size of Russia’s armed forces by 170,000. Colonel Kevlyuk argues that Ukraine must respond with a nationwide mobilisation of industry, government and resources. The often-decadent lifestyles of those enjoying safety in Kyiv need to change, he thinks. “This is not a time for imported smoked salmon.”

Throughout the war Volodymyr Zelensky has resisted the maximalist urgings of his soldiers, much to their chagrin. His top generals have, for example, pushed to lower the age at which non-reservists can be mobilised, which currently stands at 27. Others have proposed a stricter implementation of mobilisation laws.

The president has pushed back partly for political reasons: he does not want to irritate the population unnecessarily. But Mr Zelensky is also driven by more noble concerns. “Zelensky wants to do the right thing by Ukrainians,” says a high-level government source. “He doesn’t want to be a dictator”.

More at the link!

Politico reports that the US will run out of funds for Ukraine at the end of the month if a supplemental aid package does not pass Congress in the next thirteen days. (emphasis mine)

The U.S. will run out of funding for Ukraine this month if Congress does not act to pass President Joe Biden’s emergency supplemental spending request that has been stalled for weeks on Capitol Hill, a top U.S. official said Monday.

The Biden administration plans to announce one more package of military aid to Ukraine this month, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday. But after that, funding for Ukraine will dry up, he said.

“When that one is done … we will have no more replenishment authority available to us. And we’re going to need Congress to act without delay,” Kirby said.

The Pentagon still has $4.4 billion in presidential drawdown authority to provide weapons to Ukraine directly from Defense Department inventory, according to Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Garron Garn. But the weapons DOD can transfer to Ukraine are limited by the necessary funding to replenish U.S. stockpiles, and that’s what is almost gone.

Lawmakers are still far apart on talks to link border security restrictions with Ukraine funding. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer asked senators to return this week instead of going on recess on Thursday in order to make progress on a framework agreement.

GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said Sunday that, following weeks of negotiations, senators are “not anywhere close” to striking a deal before the end of the year — a prospect that imperils further U.S. aid to Ukraine.

As of Dec. 6, the Pentagon had $1.1 billion in existing resources available to backfill U.S. stocks, spokesperson Maj. Charlie Dietz said at the time.

But the U.S. has now allocated that remaining funding to buying new weapons from industry to replace the ones the Pentagon has already sent to Ukraine, Kirby said.

The Biden administration has sought to sell the American public on spending more money on Ukraine by highlighting the benefit to U.S. manufacturers and the jobs market. Officials circulated a graphic on Capitol Hill showing that battleground states such as Pennsylvania and Arizona are reaping billions of dollars from the efforts to arm Ukraine.

Kirby reiterated that message on Monday, noting the funding “of course supports good-paying American jobs in the process, [and] also is helping strengthen the production lines and strengthen our relationship with the defense industry across the country.”

More at the link!

I think we now all have the clarification to put to bed the counter argument, oft made in the comments, that the US still has $4.4 billion in draw down authority, so the Biden administration has the money to supply Ukraine passed 31 December 2023. Yes, that money is appropriated. Unfortunately, it cannot be spent because there is limited appropriated funding left to refill the US stockpiles that we’ve been drawing down to supply Ukraine. The latter is the key component here. Without a new appropriation, the US runs out of funding to supply Ukraine at the end of the month. There is no way around that reality. Nor the fact that the Senate is no where even close to preparing a compromise supplemental bill. Compromise here means that McConnell and the GOP minority caucus don’t kill the hostage they’ve taken – aid to Ukraine – because the Democrats have agreed to turn Stephen Miller’s and Trump’s draconian failed executive orders on immigration into law. There is also no way around the reality that even if the Democrats give in to McConnell’s demands, the legislation is DOA in the GOP majority House.

I think there are two things going on here with this sudden burst of gloomy reporting for Ukraine’s prospects in 2024. The first is the legitimate concern of what the failure to lock in aid from the US and the EU will have on Ukraine’s war effort. The second is, I think, a very impressive influence campaign by Kyiv to leverage the first reality to keep the pressure up on the Biden administration, the GOP House majority, and the EU. The Ukrainians have made it very clear they’re not going to quit fighting against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, whether or not the US and the EU get their acts together. By making sure the news reporting is focused on what will happen if they do not get more aid, the Ukrainians are able to keep the pressure on. This does not mean that the US and other western assessments are not correct. Nor does it mean that Ukraine’s needs are being exaggerated.

If you see U.S. intel reporting that 87% of Russia’s pre-2022 regular army essentially died in the battlefields of Ukraine and you still “just asking questions” on the efficiency of Ukraine defense aid – you’re not really having any sort of “efficiency of spending” at heart.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 18, 2023

If you’re wondering what one of the two leading candidates to be Secretary of Defense if Trump were to win the 2024 election thinks about all of this, well here you go:

Translation:

Russians surely understand that the U.S. aid package for Ukraine will be passed anyway following the ongoing hard talks between the D and the R. And that Europe is also doing what it can, and that this will continue, and Ukraine will go on fighting despite the… pic.twitter.com/bPvZTKjqLl

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 18, 2023

Translation:

Russians surely understand that the U.S. aid package for Ukraine will be passed anyway following the ongoing hard talks between the D and the R. And that Europe is also doing what it can, and that this will continue, and Ukraine will go on fighting despite the chronic lack of everything.

And they also understand that their own capabilities to supplement loses, finance the war, and generate more military power had their limits.

And they also understand that despite all the chest-beating, the perspective of their war on Ukraine is still rather unspectacular, to say the least.

If you, as the ‘world’s second biggest military power’ about to enter the third year of your ‘special military operation’ to conquer a 40-million nation as big as France and you sustain 13,000 casualties and lose over 200 vehicles trying to seize the ruins of a small city of Adviivka within months — that’s not the kind of result that makes you feel too confident, let’s put it this way.

Especially given the fact that… there are literally a dozen other avdiivkas on Russia’s way to even complete the conquest of Donbas… by 2026? 2027? Never?

So there you go with shameless shills who, on a daily basis, literally flood Western social media with “MAKE PEACE YOU FOOLS” talking points.

As if there’s no tomorrow and the internet has no memory.

Oh, by the way, please tell me again why Russia would need “peace” or agree on one if it’s doing so great that Ukraine is absolutely 100% doomed and Russia will get everything it wants anyway?

If you’re wondering who the other leading candidate to be Trump’s SecDef is, it’s Senator Tom Cotton.

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Left bank of Kherson region: @SOF_UKR operators, together with marines and @ServiceSsu, destroyed a russian TOS-1A heavy flamethrower system.

📹: @SOF_UKR pic.twitter.com/Gj7dHv0wTN

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 18, 2023

Magyar is not a fan of The New York Times:

You should watch this (English CC should be ok).
An opinion from Robert 'Magyar' Brovdi regarding the recent NYT piece on the battle of the Dnipro Isles. https://t.co/qBmYZVZRYc

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 18, 2023

Here’s the full video, with English subtitles queued up to the right time hack.

Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson oblast:

/2. same T-90M. https://t.co/lRL6SLIVfY pic.twitter.com/HlG3odVDPA

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 18, 2023

Russian TOS-1A Solntsepyok 220mm MLRS destroyed on the left bank Kherson region, Krynky area. By the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine. https://t.co/emXtandAXB pic.twitter.com/mF62As4urx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 18, 2023

Avdiivka:

Avdiivka, Donetsk region
This is what the city looks like now…

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) December 18, 2023

An update from Ukrainian Marine Kriegsforscher. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

A short thread/update about one day on the South of Avdiivka near Vodiane.

For the last 10 days in this part of Ukraine it’s foggy. Very foggy.

And at 15.12.23 RUAF decided to use weather conditions and attack positions of UAF🧵👇 pic.twitter.com/6obe6QFDDw

— Kriegsforscher (@OSINTua) December 18, 2023

RUAF decided to use a lot of smoke ammunition. Was it helpful for them? You look at the photos.

BTW, it’s rare that two sides are using smoke.

It was hard to find them because of the fog and smoke.

But it was clear that they used two groups: tank + BMP-2 in both groups for different directions.

The tank from the first group found an anti tank mine and became disabled.
And Russians started retreating.Try to guess who was the first to run? Exactly, the crew of the tank.

Retreating infantry 👇

Damaged and destroyed Russian tank from the failure attack.

On the different direction I have no clue what happened there but they left their BMP-2.

Then the tank from the another group was found. As the result of this attack 3/4 left at the ground.

I have no clue what was that. It was not even close to our positions when they have been stopped. They achieved nothing.

In some kind of way UAF we’re lucky back then. I need to say that we are lack of ammunition. We just don’t have ammo for mortars and Mk-19 (40 mm) — the main weapon of a battalion. And it’s very, very awful to see how Russians are walking without punishment. 

Like here. This is their evacuation. Normally they would be destroyed. But we don’t have opportunity to do this.

That’s FPV drones for Ukraine is an analog of artillery shells (122-155 mm).

That’s really our artillery right now. That’s why we need drones all the times.

Yes, sometimes we use lonely tanks with brave tankers. But it’s not enough.

So I really ask U when U see a post that someone is gathering money for FPV drones – help them. You buying artillery shells for Ukraine. Just right. And we need them now. Not in a year.

If you like what you see you may support us:

freedomfighter is creating interesting videos ;DHello. My name is Dima. I’m Ukrainian. I serve in the Ukrainian army and have fought against Russian invaders since April 2022.The main goal of this page is to share my memories and thoughts about the…https://www.buymeacoffee.com/ukranianmarines

Stepove, Avdiivka front:

47th Mechanised Brigade "Bozha Sprava" air recon unit shows footage from Stepove, homeland of Russian fear, featuring Bradley, artillery and grenade launcher work. pic.twitter.com/mwhaNk5Mv6

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 18, 2023

Debaltseve, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Russian R-330Zh Zhitel EW system, components of BUK-M2 and BUK-M3 targeted by the 14th Separate Regiment of Ukraine. https://t.co/T7DqE4hmMd pic.twitter.com/YJk1Ogarhx

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 18, 2023

/3. Buk-M2; Buk-M3 was targeted near Debaltseve, approximately 35km from the front line
48.372760, 38.444600 pic.twitter.com/GwjRz822JH

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 18, 2023

Not 100% sure where in Ukraine this is, but you javelin enthusiasts will enjoy it:

Anti-tank crew of the 79th Air Assault Brigade, professional Javelin launchers. 40+ vehicles destroyed in total. Call sign "Gagauz". pic.twitter.com/k2d5sajqiA

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 18, 2023

Illia Ponomarenko provides his take on the recently published polling in Ukraine.

https://t.co/snCzgTDrU0

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 18, 2023

I'd suggest that we don't overthink the figures provided by the latest poll.

Yep, Zelensky now has only 62% in popular support while many got used to thinking about him as a universally acclaimed wartime leader.

This was, of course, generally true for quite a long time: in…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 18, 2023

I’d suggest that we don’t overthink the figures provided by the latest poll.

Yep, Zelensky now has only 62% in popular support while many got used to thinking about him as a universally acclaimed wartime leader.

This was, of course, generally true for quite a long time: in December 2022, a year ago, Zelensky had 84%. That was around the 10th month of Russia’s full-scale invasion when public morale was very high.

We had the Battle of Kyiv, we had the Kharkiv operation, we had Kherson liberated, and we were going through the winter of Russia trying to deprive us of heating and electricity, which was a strong consolidating factor.

But, of course, now we’re about to enter the big war’s 3rd year.

And lots of things that happened in 2023 take their toll on Zelensky’s figures. The unsuccessful summer campaign in Zaporizhia, harsh military mobilization, Zelensky’s own personal mistakes in the public domain and beyond.

It’s not March 2022 anymore, and the nation’s passionate drive to unite behind “the modern Churchill” naturally settles down.

Nonetheless, I still say 62% is still quite a lot, considering the fact that we had an extremely hard year at war that, despite many hopes, is not ending with a well-deserved victory and peace.

Only 18% of Ukrainians say firmly they do not trust Zelensky.

General Zaluzhny, as we can see, enjoys very broad popular trust. 88%. Which is, again, very predictable. He is the face of the Ukrainian military that is doing the impossible in this war.

All this time Zaluzhny has been very careful and consistent in the public domain. He carries his own burden of being responsible for 1 million lives under his command in the worst European war since WWII.

And as a purely military leader, he does not deal with many things that fall on the head of his political civilian boss.

And IMO, we can talk a lot about mistakes and setbacks, but General Zaluzhny deserves his fame and his status as a prominent war leader of the 21st century.

I’d like to see how successful his critics would be in a giant war against Russia, given how little resources Ukraine can count on since day one and what stands against it.

As for other institutions, we in Ukraine have traditionally low trust in the parliament (now 15%) or the government (now 26%).

I don’t remember a single parliament or a cabinet about which we were happy for longer than the first few months.

So no, dear Russia fanboys, Ukraine is not ‘collapsing’ because ‘only’ 62% endorse Zelensky.

Ukraine is just not Russia. We don’t have a dictator whose boots we must lick for 25 years.

We’re a democracy where we publish and discuss polls that Zelensky may not like, and we can be openly critical of Zelensky, the government, and the parliament, and where journalists can effectively overthrow ministers due to corruption scandals exposed.

If you don’t trust me, just spend like 10 minutes on Facebook’s Ukrainian segment.

I think that’s more than enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, but here’s a fairly recent pic from Patron’s Instagram page:

Here’s a machine translation of the caption:

I want to tell you about a dream that has come true, and which will definitely save thousands of lives ❤️

As you can see in the photo – this is it! These are THEY. Our demining vehicles. 🫠

They have arrived, brand new, already tested in our conditions.

When they were brought to us a few months ago to help us for just a few days, I could not find a place for myself: I want my sappers to have these. So that they don’t have to do it manually, so that they don’t endanger themselves, so that they can clean up the country more safely.

I asked everyone I knew about such a machine. I even planned to raise funds, but they are so expensive that it would take me 5 years to raise money. And during these 5 years, so many people were hurt…. 😔

So when the star fell, when it was 22:22 on the clock, when I blew out the candle, I made a wish for victory and a demining machine.

And then a few days ago it arrived. And not alone!!!

Welcome Donatella (the bigger one) and Penelope (the smaller one).

They have already started clearing Chernihiv region, led by our sappers who traveled to Croatia to learn how to operate these machines.

Thanks to everyone involved, thanks to whom my dream came true ❤️ And this is definitely @dok_ing, the manufacturers of these wonderful machines and the Korean International Cooperative Agency. I am also grateful to my @dsns_ukraine.

I send everyone a dream-come-true lick 👅

Open thread!