(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Russia launched its largest barrage and bombardment against Ukrainian civilian targets early this morning. It began before dawn in Ukraine.
This morning, russia carried out the most massive air attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The occupiers used a variety of types of ballistic missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs to target civilian targets. A total of 158 missiles and UAVs… pic.twitter.com/oFtnhacj9r
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 29, 2023
This morning, russia carried out the most massive air attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.
The occupiers used a variety of types of ballistic missiles, air-launched cruise missiles, and Shahed UAVs to target civilian targets. A total of 158 missiles and UAVs were fired against Ukraine; 87 missiles and 27 Shaheds were shot down by Ukrainian air defense.
russia hit residential buildings, hospitals, schools, and shopping malls around the country.
#RussiaIsATerroristState
The terrorists must be punished.
36 Shahed drones, at least 90 Kh-101 / Kh-555/ Kh-55 missiles from 18 Tu-95MS bombers, 8 Kh-22 / Kh-32 missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers, at least 14 S-300 / S-400 / Iskander-M missiles, 5 Kinzhal missiles from 5 MiG-31K, and 4 Kh-31P and 1 Kh-59 missiles launched from Su-35S. 2/ pic.twitter.com/K2adiXEawp
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 29, 2023
Ukraine’s air force spokesman Yury Ihnat confirms the unprecedented scale of Russian attack this morning. “We have never seen so many targets on our monitors at once.”
— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) December 29, 2023
I’ll have more of this after the jump, but, again, we need to recognize what is going on here. During the first day of the re-invasion, Russia launched between 100 and 150 missiles, rockets, and bombs at Ukraine – most at targets in Kyiv Oblast – in an attempt to take Kyiv within 72 hours of the re-invasion. This morning Russia bombarded Ukrainian civilian targets with 158 missiles and drones. Putin’s strategy here is two fold. The first is to terrorize the Ukrainians. The second is to force the Ukrainians to use their air defense up before it can be resupplied. As I wrote last night, and have written on many other occasions, Putin, his national security advisor Patrushev, Gerasimov, Shoigyu, etc all read, watch, and listen to American and European news and analysis. They know that aid is currently stalled because of dysfunctional politics (GOP House and Senate caucuses) in DC and Brussels (Orban) and they want to take advantage of that. They also want to terrorize and demoralize the Ukrainians as much as possible because they also read, watch, and listen to Ukrainian news and analysis and know there is a lot of discussion about the need for a general draft, potential disagreements between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluznhyi, etc. The Russians also work very hard to manipulate the Information Domain in order to leverage all of this to their advantage.
It is important to remember that part of the reason that today was possible is because the US’s strategy, as well as NATO’s, has been to slow walk and limit what weapons systems and munitions are provided to Ukraine so as not to antagonize Putin for fear that if Ukraine was more aggressive and struck farther behind Russia’s lines of occupation and into Russia itself then he would escalate. Today’s bombardment was, once again, further evidence that Putin will escalate when he perceives weakness, not when he encounters strength. His strategy is framed within Lenin’s maxim:
Probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.
Which is why this, from the Brits, is the right response:
🇺🇦🇬🇧 The UK is sending hundreds of air defence missiles to Ukraine to restock British gifted air defence systems capable of striking down Russian drones and missiles.
We are grateful to our British friend at @DefenceHQ for your unwavering support.
Together, we can repel… https://t.co/BoQqUP5bbq
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 29, 2023
🇺🇦🇬🇧 The UK is sending hundreds of air defence missiles to Ukraine to restock British gifted air defence systems capable of striking down Russian drones and missiles.
We are grateful to our British friend at @DefenceHQ for your unwavering support.
Together, we can repel russian aggression and protect the free world from terror.
Unfortunately these 200 or so missiles are not going to last long.
Which is why the US and the rest of our EU and NATO allies should be doing the same. Especially because the Ukrainians have noticed who gets priority in DC:
The White House just bypassed Congress to greenlight a $147.5 million emergency sale of fuses, chargers, and primers for 155mm shells to Israel. Despite Israel's complete air supremacy, what happened to talks about the irrelevancy of artillery due to Western military air power?
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) December 29, 2023
The White House just bypassed Congress to greenlight a $147.5 million emergency sale of fuses, chargers, and primers for 155mm shells to Israel. Despite Israel’s complete air supremacy, what happened to talks about the irrelevancy of artillery due to Western military air power?
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We will continue to strengthen our air defense and work towards pushing the war back into Russia – address by the President of Ukraine
29 December 2023 – 20:21
Dear Ukrainians,
A rescue operation is currently underway in various cities of Ukraine following the impact of Russian missiles and the falling debris. It was the heaviest attack by this human scum involving nearly 160 missiles and drones. Our soldiers successfully intercepted most of them, including various types of missiles and “Shahed” drones. The targets are familiar to Russia – over 100 private houses have been destroyed or damaged, along with 45 multi-story buildings, schools, two churches, hospitals, a maternity ward, and numerous commercial storages. As of now, 29 people have lost their lives. My sincere condolences to all their relatives and loved ones. Over 150 people have been injured, and they are receiving the necessary assistance. Cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Smila, the Kharkiv, Sumy, Khmelnytsky regions, and our Zhytomyr region have been affected… We will respond to Russian terrorists for every strike. Terror never gains in playing against people. Over 600 rescuers are involved in providing assistance and clearing debris, along with a lot of equipment. The work will continue around the clock. I want to express gratitude to everyone involved and everyone supporting those affected. Special thanks to the rescue workers of Ukraine’s State Emergency Service. Thank you, guys! Dmytro Lutsenko in Kharkiv, Denys Mikheev in Dnipro, Pavlo Kharchevsky in Odesa, Mykhailo Hryn and Ihor Dobryden in Kyiv, and Andrii Nesterenko in Zaporizhzhia. I also want to commend the National Police of Ukraine, whose members have shown exceptional dedication today: Oleksandr Hnatiuk in Kharkiv, Dmytro Popovych in Dnipro, Artem Hrushko in Odesa, and Iryna Naumenko in Zaporizhzhia – thank you, Iryna. Thank you to you all and your colleagues!
It is crucial for the world to react to this latest act of terror. Many leaders today have already declared their support for Ukraine and Ukrainians, and I am grateful to each one. Especially to those who have assisted our country with air defense. Our anti-aircraft defense forces have done a lot today, considering that Russian terrorists deliberately tried to bypass our defenses. We will continue to strengthen our air defense and work towards pushing the war back to these human scum where it came from – home to Russia.
Today, I visited the positions of our soldiers on the front lines in Avdiivka. I met with the 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade. These are heroic warriors. I personally thanked them for their strength, for how they endure in battles. I awarded those who distinguished themselves the most, presenting the “Golden Star” of Hero of Ukraine to Junior Sergeant Ihor Tymoschuk and the “Cross of Military Merit” to Senior Lieutenant Yevhen Baikov. I also presented orders for Courage and the Order of Bohdan Khmelnytsky to the brigade’s soldiers. It is an honor to personally thank such warriors – all those currently on the front lines, defending our state. Despite fatigue, which is visible, there is no despair. There is no weakness. None. And this is the most important thing! Ukraine is fighting for its life, and I thank each and every one who is there on the front lines, in the pre-frontline areas, everyone who is helping.
I visited a hospital in Donetsk region to personally thank our military medics and support the guys recovering from injuries. I honored doctors and soldiers with state awards. I am proud of our people – the strength of our nation, our country, what Ukraine can achieve when we are united. I thank everyone who cares for our state and people! Those who defend, work, and strengthen!
Together, we will endure. And we will win! I know it.
Glory to Ukraine!
Here’s more on the early morning Russian bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets:
Mechanics of Russian attack on Ukraine, which involved most types of missiles, targeting major cities. Death toll rises hourly as bodies are discovered under the rubble. At least 26 killed as of now. pic.twitter.com/GPQj4wx1qy
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year from Russia ❤️🩹
Photo from Odesa after today's Russian attack on the peaceful cities. pic.twitter.com/UEbiitCeoV— Oleksandra Matviichuk (@avalaina) December 29, 2023
Russia attacked Ukraine with 110 missiles. As of now 12 people killed and more than 75 injured in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Lviv and Zaporizhzhia.
Video from Odesa pic.twitter.com/N6FjEbyJvX
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
Imagine how many lives have been saved today by top-notch Ukrainian air defense aces employing Western-provided hardware.
Hundreds of lives, if not thousands.
158 Russian missiles and drones!
Today’s attack is easily comparable to the grand missile barrage that Russia launched…
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 29, 2023
Imagine how many lives have been saved today by top-notch Ukrainian air defense aces employing Western-provided hardware.
Hundreds of lives, if not thousands.
158 Russian missiles and drones!
Today’s attack is easily comparable to the grand missile barrage that Russia launched in the full-scale invasion’s first hour in a bid to completely derail Ukraine’s ability to fight back.
Tonight 🇷🇺 launched what might have been the largest missile and drone attack against 🇺🇦 during the entire war. Numerous residential complexes were among the targets. They are barbarians! pic.twitter.com/Kw6lqdltoJ
— Carl Bildt (@carlbildt) December 29, 2023
War on maternity hospitals, schools, residential buildings, shopping malls…
Insane terrorists.#RussiaIsATerroristState pic.twitter.com/ODuOtKIFUm
— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) December 29, 2023
Shocking assault on maternity ward in Dnipro. Luckily 12 pregnant women took refuge in bomb shelters at first siren, four newborns were evacuated. Is this anything but an act of genocide? pic.twitter.com/JCtYGq7KCa
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
russia is a terrorist state pic.twitter.com/vCbLNhZEW6
— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz) December 29, 2023
Dnipro. Missile hit a shopping centre. There are injured and killed. pic.twitter.com/YfcGZx6T0i
— Ukrainska Pravda in English (@pravda_eng) December 29, 2023
Russia launched 110 missiles today across Ukrainian cities hitting the top target for the Russian army – a Ukrainian maternity hospital. Ukraine needs more and better air defense. pic.twitter.com/L8Bi8YP6Pg
— Olena Tregub (@OTregub) December 29, 2023
Kyiv, a downed Russian cruise missile hit an apartment high rise. pic.twitter.com/xwDzpc06Mn
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) December 29, 2023
Ukraine now.
A large European nation is being bombed into the stone age as bored high-minded pseudo-intellectuals keep playing a Kissinger in what they imagine as Realpolitik 5D chess in op-eds. pic.twitter.com/3e2SKbYMgP— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 29, 2023
The most massive and violent attack on Ukraine in months. Russia planned this for months, stockpiling missiles and waiting for the moment to strike.
Video from Dnipro. Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv heavily hit. More details as they emerge
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
Aftermath of the missile attack in Kyiv: Lukyanivska metro station is damaged. It is used solely as a shelter, with trains running non-stop pic.twitter.com/7oLWu48vfc
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
Two people killed in Odesa, 15 injured. An entire floor in the residential high-rise burned down. pic.twitter.com/HyOXE2h99h
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
One killed, eight injured in missile attack on Lviv pic.twitter.com/cdWCeHEibF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 29, 2023
A major Russian barrage on Ukraine today, which evidently serves two aims:
1) Deter Kyiv from striking targets like Novocherkassk;
2) Contribute to fatigue and uncertainty in Ukraine as we head into 2024.Nothing new here. The public outrage in Europe over what we are seeing in…
— Sergey Radchenko (@DrRadchenko) December 29, 2023
A man in Kyiv jumped into a car that was burning from a Russian missile attack and drove it away from other cars.
He got burns on his face.
What a hero! pic.twitter.com/eBGH11AogO
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 29, 2023
Here is President Biden’s official statement on Russia’s bombardment of Ukraine early this morning:
DECEMBER 29, 2023
Statement from President Joe Biden on Russia’s Aerial Assault on UkraineOvernight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas—killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. It is a stark reminder to the world that, after nearly two years of this devastating war, Putin’s objective remains unchanged. He seeks to obliterate Ukraine and subjugate its people. He must be stopped.
In the face of this brutal attack, Ukraine deployed the air defense systems that the United States and our Allies and partners have delivered to Ukraine over the past year to successfully intercept and destroy many of the missiles and drones. The American people can be proud of the lives we have helped to save and the support we have given Ukraine as it defends its people, its freedom, and its independence. But unless Congress takes urgent action in the new year, we will not be able to continue sending the weapons and vital air defense systems Ukraine needs to protect its people. Congress must step up and act without any further delay.
The stakes of this fight extend far beyond Ukraine. They affect the entirety of the NATO Alliance, the security of Europe, and the future of the Transatlantic relationship. Putin has not just attempted to destroy Ukraine; he has threatened some of our NATO Allies as well. When dictators and autocrats are allowed to run roughshod in Europe, the risk rises that the United States gets pulled in directly. And the consequences reverberate around the world. That’s why the United States has rallied a coalition of more than 50 countries to support the defense of Ukraine. We cannot let our allies and partners down. We cannot let Ukraine down. History will judge harshly those who fail to answer freedom’s call.
President Biden is correct that the stakes extend far beyond Ukraine. For instance, a Russian cruise missile crossed into Poland today en route to its civilian target in Ukraine.
During Russia's air terror against Ukraine a single missile entered Polish air space. According multiple accounts it struck near the village of Wożuczyn-Cukrownia, around 20 km from the border to Ukraine. Polish Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Wiesław Kukuła… pic.twitter.com/1Ns43TmnHT
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 29, 2023
During Russia’s air terror against Ukraine a single missile entered Polish air space. According multiple accounts it struck near the village of Wożuczyn-Cukrownia, around 20 km from the border to Ukraine. Polish Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Wiesław Kukuła indicated that it was a Russian missile.
In early news it was reported that the missile traveled as deep as 40 km into Polish air space, but it was unclear whether the missile impacted on Polish soil. Polish search groups are on their way.
Poland’s air defense has been put on high alert and Polish President Andrzej Duda has convened an emergency meeting with the National Security Bureau.
Statement on the summoning of chargé d’affaires of the Russian Federation to the Polish MFA ⬇️ https://t.co/HoXvi18hAl
— Ministry of Foreign Affairs 🇵🇱 (@PolandMFA) December 29, 2023
This evening, Deputy Foreign Minister Władysław Teofil Bartoszewski summoned chargé d’affaires of the Russian Federation Andrei Ordash and presented him a note in which the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requests an explanation of the incident of violating Poland’s airspace by a cruise missile and urges Russia to immediately cease this kind of activity.
Prime Minister Kallas gets it:
Russia launched the largest attack yet against Ukraine, targeting civilians. A war crime on a massive scale.
A reminder for the New Year that Russia’s aims haven’t changed – it wants to destroy Ukraine. Not letting aggression pay off is crucial for European and global security.
— Kaja Kallas (@kajakallas) December 29, 2023
She also knows that should Putin be victorious in any way, and that includes just being able to keep the parts of Ukraine that Russia is illegally occupying, that Estonia and the other Baltic states are at increased risk.
Avdiivka:
President Zelenskyy made a battlefield circulation to visit Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka today. Here is the video his office released followed by the English transcript of his remarks.
We are grateful to all the warriors bearing this war on their shoulders – address by the President of Ukraine from Avdiivka
29 December 2023 – 18:02
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Avdiivka. Our positions. Our guys. Ukraine is defending its own here. Defending our entire nation. Just as on the entire front line. Donetsk region. Kharkiv region. Zaporizhzhia. Kherson region – the left bank. It is hard. It is pain and losses. And these are the people who keep Ukraine alive. Life is being fought for here. And we are grateful to every warrior. To every soldier, sailor, sergeant and officer bearing this war on their shoulders. Thank you all, warriors!
Today in Avdiivka, together with the team, we extended Christmas and New Year greetings to the military. All those who are on the front line. Those who are defending our country. Immense gratitude to all the relatives, to every family of our heroes. And to everyone who helps. Those who work to ensure that our guys at the front have what they need. And to everyone in the world who believes in us and does everything to make Ukraine more powerful.
We remember what is at stake in this war. We are defending our country.
Glory to Ukraine!
The President of Ukraine @ZelenskyyUa visited frontline positions of our warriors in Avdiivka.
Ukrainian soldiers are defending our country in extremely difficult conditions. Our President has shown leadership and gratitude to our warriors.
🇺🇦 Ukraine will win! https://t.co/j5lgbJPMbK
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 29, 2023
Avdiivka. I visited the positions of the 110th «Marko Bezruchko» Mechanized Brigade. One of the toughest spots of the frontline.
I personally thanked the warriors. We reviewed the defense situation and our troops’ key needs with the commander. I honored the best servicemen with… pic.twitter.com/NRQdoB6tOy— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) December 29, 2023
Kupyansk:
Ukrainian warriors repelled another russian attack on Kupiansk direction.
The losses of the enemy:
◾️1 destroyed and 1 damaged tank
◾️3 IFVs destroyed
◾️40 military personnel📹: 14th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/MQIUVEHuAq
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 29, 2023
Odesa:
In the courtyard and in between all of the debris of the high rise buildings in Odesa, which got heavily damaged by Russian missiles and drones, residents set up a Christmas tree, expressing their defiance against Russia’s atrocity.
Russians will never be able to break this… pic.twitter.com/fUfNXjkyuk
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 29, 2023
In the courtyard and in between all of the debris of the high rise buildings in Odesa, which got heavily damaged by Russian missiles and drones, residents set up a Christmas tree, expressing their defiance against Russia’s atrocity.
Russians will never be able to break this people.
One of the Shahed-136/131 drones hit this morning an Ukrainian church in Odesa during service. The priest barely escaped the debris.
Just to clarify this, a drone made or at least invented in Islamist Iran was used to hit a Christian church in Europe by Russia.
Source:… pic.twitter.com/SOzuo6LFyk
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 29, 2023
One of the Shahed-136/131 drones hit this morning an Ukrainian church in Odesa during service. The priest barely escaped the debris.
Just to clarify this, a drone made or at least invented in Islamist Iran was used to hit a Christian church in Europe by Russia.
Russian occupied Crimea:
We have an update on the number of Russian sailors killed during Ukraine’s strike earlier this week:
The Russian webpage "Independent Television of Sevastopol" released news that 74 Russian sailors were killed during the attack and destruction of the Novocherkassk. 27 more got injured.
They cite official channels of the Black Sea Fleet. Shortly after releasing the news the… pic.twitter.com/6BGMzlDyEC
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 29, 2023
The Russian webpage “Independent Television of Sevastopol” released news that 74 Russian sailors were killed during the attack and destruction of the Novocherkassk. 27 more got injured.
They cite official channels of the Black Sea Fleet. Shortly after releasing the news the Russian page got deleted. Attached you will find screenshots of the original page and the translation.
Bryanks and Belgorod Oblasts, Russia:
/2. Explosions also reported in Bryansk. Presumably UAV pic.twitter.com/RPpYFSMCAz
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 29, 2023
It is claimed that the factory of "Kremniy" in Bryansk – one of the largest microelectronics enterprises in Russia – has been hit.
Al flight operations in Bryansk Region have been suspended.
Source: https://t.co/zgORkPjWJU#Russia #Bryansk #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/1UUIlnYRGA
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 29, 2023
The Ukrainians have decided that sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. They also want to make sure Putin knows he is encountering Ukrainian steel, not American, European, EU, and NATO mush.
The price:
Хто на теніс, хто з рукою, хто без ноги? Памʼятайте і шануйте завдяки кому ми вільні! pic.twitter.com/RVMamaPuXm
— Вячеслав Запорожец (@VvZiper) December 24, 2023
Who is at tennis, who has an arm, who has no leg? Remember and honor thanks to whom we are free!
Shchedryk, which was americanized into Carol of the Bells, is a Ukrainian song about the turning of the seasons from winter to spring, the new year as traditionally understood. It is a song of hope and reassurance, as well as great beauty. https://t.co/V9TjYWVgwS
— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) December 24, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
Ukrainians are hostages of terrorists. We’re executed every day with bullets and missiles. All this is almost in a live broadcast. “Top content” that no one wants to watch. Ukrainians are forced to participate in it. Please, help us to save ourselves #SupportUkraine pic.twitter.com/0TguikDRiQ
— Patron (@PatronDsns) December 29, 2023
Open thread!
Alison Rose
I’m so fucking scared and angry.
I want the US and NATO to have to answer for this malfeasance, but they won’t. They’ll never fully admit or atone for their volitional mistakes, even as those mistakes are costing Ukrainian lives and decimating the nation. Yes, we sent a lot of help. But not enough. And the latter now matters far more than the former.
I’m gonna stop now before I say things I shouldn’t say.
Thank you as always, Adam.
matt
We really need to pry the hands of these Republican traitors off of our military.
Yutsano
WHO COULD SAY NO TO THAT FACE??? Patron almost makes me want to get a Jack Russell Terrorist. Almost.
Adam, I thought Gerasimov fell out of favour with Putin. Maybe I’m thinking of a different general?
I’m now officially worried Poland is going to get sucked into Ukraine. Granted they have a really itchy trigger finger right now (I’m shocked you didn’t put up the picture Adam!) but if there was a missile that hit Polish territory that is a definite not good. If that happens again Poland could stop counting until a third hits. Then Poland lights up Kaliningrad.
trollhattan
Last night’s atrocity ranks “holy fuckballs” on the atrocity scale, and I ponder if it was preplanned, or unleashed in anger as response to the successful naval strike. It seems doubtful Russia can do this frequently, but do it they will, as desire and opportunity allow. Losing is the only sin.
SAM defenses are remarkable, and also stretched even thinner than Russia’s weapons cache. But, how does one defend an area as vast as Ukraine? Must pick and choose which cities and military sites to defend, which leaves the vast majority undefended. Horrid decisions to make.
Never thought “special operation” would go two years and further, but here we are. Here’s hoping the free world will do whatever it takes to keep Ukraine, Ukraine.
Another Scott
ISW’s update today mentions that it looks like VVP’s forces have been trying to find ways to thread the needle between Ukraine’s air defense systems. It also says:
We all know that VVP wants something that he can claim as some important victory before his re-election in mid-March. This will be yet another challenging quarter for the good people of Ukraine. Here’s hoping that today turns out to be an aberration…
[ Yes, hope is not a strategy. ;-) ]
Thanks Adam.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
oldster
Thanks, Adam.
I hope that the new year will bring new bills through Congress to support these people fighting and dying for our freedom.
Westyny
Thanks, Adam. Depressing as hell. While the GOP fifth column has US funding locked up I hope the EU and NATO can overcome Orban and up their ante. Also, fuck TNYT.
BeautifulPlumage
Thanks, Adam. Maybe UKR can send over some special New Year’s fireworks for Pu-tiny to enjoy.
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: He did, then he got rehabilitated. He’s currently the Russian equivalent of Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Technically he and Shoigyu are running the war.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: ISW is wrong. All the reporting citing actual subject matter experts, some of which I included in updates this week (last night I think), make it clear that Russia is able to produce the cruise missiles it needs to continue to do these higher number strikes. Does it mean they can do 150 plus in one night? Most likely not, but it does mean they can put up enough a few times a week to force Ukraine to deplete their air defense stocks.
Also, the drones are used to overwhelm the air defense so the cruise missiles, especially the
Khinzalssupersonic X22s, can get through. The Ukrainians have yet to bring one of those down. Including this morning.TeezySkeezy
@Yutsano: And by extension possibly the whole Northern Hemisphere.
trollhattan
@Adam L Silverman:
Adam, is it the case that kinetic AA weapons like the Gepard are the most cost-effective choice for downing drones, like Shahads? Seems like guided “dumb” ammo rapid fire gun offers an unlimited resource as compared to guided SAMs, which range from expen$ive to ghoulishly expen$ive.
What I can’t fathom is tracking and organizing defenses against 150 flying things arriving at different speeds from all directions (including Poland, apparently). Boggling.
YY_Sima Qian
John Hudson at WaPo has some details on the Biden Administration decision to send 155 mm artillery shells to Israel under emergency declaration:
Mike Black, one of the few natsec analysts I follow on Twitter than has a fairly obvious Dem lean, & a vociferous critic of Israeli conduct in the War in Gaza, was unsparing in his criticism of the decision:
The dollar amount also starkly contrasts w/ the US$ 20M released for Ukraine yesterday, all at a time the Ukrainian Army is desperate for artillery shells.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been using heavy machine guns and smaller calibre AAAs to shoot down the Shahed drones. What is needed is prompt detection, consistent tracking, & directing the relevant AAA assets to engage the drones when they fly overhead. The expensive & far more precious Gepards are better used near the front lines to threaten Russian attack helicopters, which is what they are designed for (though they may become magnets for Russian Lancet or FPV drones).
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
Adam: re “Lenin’s maxim” — Is there reliable evidence that he actually said that thing in those words? Google turns up lots of assertions that he did, but none appears to provide sourcing. I’m prepared to believe he could have said it or something like it, but that exact wording sounds almost too ripe to be real, like something Snidely Whiplash would say in an unguarded moment.
Adam L Silverman
@Yutsano: Unless he’s rotated out, the head of their Armor branch is my former student. I was both his front line supervisor and his research supervisor (equivalent to a thesis advisor). I’m not too worried about the Poles knowing their business.
Did you mean this graphic?
Adam L Silverman
@trollhattan: To your first question, this is not my area of expertise. To your second, this is why we have computers.
trollhattan
@YY_Sima Qian:
They have used them successfully against Shaheds, and cruise missiles, but IDK where in theater.
Germany has delivered all 52 Gepards promised.
laura
I feel shame and disgust- shame that we, as a nation, are failing to render necessary aid to Ukraine due to the recalcitrance of the Republican party’s refusal to pass a funding bill for “reasons” and disgust for over arming the IDF in a manner that can only lead to even more civilian casualties. I’m deeply ashamed and disgusted and I dont even know how to feel about what comes after our failure/refusal to act for the sole benefit of VVP and Netanyahu.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Bibi isn’t even waiting 8 or 9 months to knife Biden in the back. He’s been openly doing it, as well as in the front, for the past month to six weeks.
The larger issue is that Bibi, Gallant, Gantz, and Eisenkot are hell bent on escalating against all of Iran’s proxies and Iran’s forces in Syria because of those four, Bibi is the least extreme. What they’re rushing headlong into is an actual war with Iran and all of Iran’s proxies that stretches from Gaza, through Israel and the occupied West Bank, up into Lebanon and over into Syria, and from there into Iraq and Iran.
Unless we get very lucky, by the end of January the entire Levant plus Iran is going to be one big war zone.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Also, this is the second of these 100 plus million dollar emergency waivers that Blinken has issued to supply Israel in the past five weeks. So that makes the emergency waiver for Ukraine announced yesterday look even more miniscule. The Ukrainians have taken note of this. So have Putin and the Russians.
Gin & Tonic
Last night my dear wife was wondering why so many of her friends and contacts were up and on-line in the middle of the night. The answer became clear quickly. One had a rocket hit 800 meters from his house. Another had her kids’ school hit. Nobody in our circle hurt or killed, thankfully.
Jay
@Adam L Silverman:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-kyiv-attacks-1.6844576
TeezySkeezy
@Adam L Silverman: Regarding “that’s why we have computers,” you’d blow the minds of armchair futurists by telling them that AI, in some form, has *already* been deployed militarily, for years. So many people freaking out about a fancy chatbot, thinking that’s the harbinger and the thing that’s going to take over the battlefield (and the world), believing that it was 2023 when any AI started mattering. smh
Adam L Silverman
@Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride: Are you suggesting that Richard Nixon would lie?
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: My bad, I meant the X22s. From Ukrinform:
I’ll fix it in the original comment.
wjca
Is that likely to have an impact of Russia’s supply of Shahad drones? Or is Russia now making all their own (to Iranian designs)?
YY_Sima Qian
@wjca: It sure will cause oil prices to skyrocket, which will be to Russia’s benefit.
Adam L Silverman
@wjca: I doubt it. I expect Iran has a ginormous stockpile.
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep.
Dr. Jakyll and Miss Deride
@Adam L Silverman: Perish forbid! That was the first “quote” Google turned up.
YY_Sima Qian
@trollhattan: They have been, but that role can be filled equally well by the much cheaper & much more numerous towed twin 35 mm Oerlikhon AAAs, which has been license produced in many countries , & IIRC fire the same shells as the Gepards. Just need to pair them w/ some radars & E/O sensors.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: I am pretty sure Ukrainian AD has been very successful intercepting Kinzhals in the past, although Russian has not volley fired them before. I think it is the Iskandars that Ukraine has yet to trumpet interceptions for.
YY_Sima Qian
@YY_Sima Qian: High oil prices will put further stress on the EU’s economy, most parts of which are already in recession, or teetering on the edge. Which will cause further divisions in the EU & accrue support to the hard right.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: Yep, it’s the X22s and X23s. I have corrected my original reply to reflect that.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: My impression is that, despite the daily provocations by the Hezbollah & the Houthis, Iran & the Hezbollah do not actually appear to be that eager for escalation to a region wide war. Or, they just want Israel to go on the offensive 1st & further erode its support around the world, which Israel seems quite eager to walk into.
I’ve read that all but 2 of the IDF’s brigades are heavily engaged in Gaza, doe it have enough combat power left to go on the offensive against the much more powerful Hezbollah?
Honestly, the Biden Administration’s Israel policy as of this moment is mind boggling to me. Even the European powers, who initially back Israel unconditionally, are backing away. Perhaps Biden is incapable of seeing Israel dispassionately.
Yutsano
@Adam L Silverman: That’s it! Grazie mille signore!
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman:
This is a bad take on a good—and well-sourced (check the footnotes)—analysis. The key to Russian firing rate of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, is the production rate of each, not the stockpiles. As we’ve discussed in the past.
Opining about Russian firing rates on the basis of the opening salvoes of the Winter 2024 missile campaign is pointless and misleading. Their production rates in all categories will be laid bare by their firing rates averaged over weeks and months, not by individual raids. But there is zero evidence to-date that Russian production and foreign procurement rates have risen beyond what they were last year—about 13/day for drones, less than 3/day for missiles of all types. You can peruse trends at this site. Skibitskyi’s estimate of “285 missiles between August and November,” quoted explicitly in that ISW update, is perfectly consistent with that rate. And ultimately, the Russians can only fire at their procurement rate, averaged over weeks and months.
These attention-grabbing huge salvoes merely show the experiments that the Russians are performing to ascertain weaknesses in Ukrainian AD using stockpiles built up during the lull in attacks of the previous months. They are obviously trying to figure out how to profit from sporadic saturation raids using temporary built-up stocks to attempt to overwhelm defenses. This is, in all likelihood, a ploy by the Rocket Forces to keep alive the “let them freeze in the dark” theory of victory, which was shown bankrupt in 2023. Ultimately, they don’t give a shit about the targets at this stage, they just want to see how they do against UA AD with novel raid sizes and mixes, so as to find a winning combination within their firing rate constraint, before the UA adapt as they did last year.
They are going to fail, as they did in 2023, because they have clearly not achieved any kind of decisive step forward in loosening that constraint. It’s right there in the numbers, for anyone who cares to read them.
Adam L Silverman
@Carlo Graziani: I have had to report ISW twice to CI over the past 20 years. Fred Kagan couldn’t find his own hole with a map, a flashlight, a GPS, and an entire company of Army Rangers. Their product is ideologically driven bullshit. It always has been it always will be.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: We’ll know soon enough. If Russian can launch salvos of > 100 cruise/ballistic missiles for even a few days, then what we think we know about Russian production rates are wrong.
Adam L Silverman
@YY_Sima Qian: They’re not going to do them several days in a row. Once or twice a week is what they’re most likely to do. They want to heighten the terror as a morale killer.
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
We really can’t use firing rates to assay production rates.
We know from ruZZian accounts that missiles and arty shells are “failing to launch”.
We know that all munitions have a “best before” date.
Given the corruption in the ruZZian logistic’s system, it would not surprise me in the least that contractors are simply pulling old stocks out, that need to be refurbished and upgraded, putting on a new coat of paint and new stencils, and selling them to the ruZZian MOD as new production.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: If Russia can sustain 100+ cruise/ballistic missile salvoes 1 or 2 days a week, while keeping up the rate of 2 or 3 dozens a day the rest of the week, through the winter, then we must have significantly underestimated their production rate. If they are launching few missiles in the other days of the week, then they are just concentrating their fire to a couple of days a weeks, & consuming at their production rate when averaged over weeks & months. Arguably, it is more effective than maintaining a steady rate of 2 to 3 dozen missiles a day, since that rate nothing much was getting through Ukrainian AD.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: They can do that w/ ammos & shells, but not cruise & ballistic missiles.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
Made me look. WaPo story about the Kagans and Petraeus from December 2012.
Every think tank has an agenda, of course, and it’s good for us to keep that in mind.
I appreciate the footnotes their analysts provide on their Ukraine coverage. The proof of the accuracy – or lack thereof – in their analysis and emphasis will come out in time. And with the pace of the Ukraine war, we won’t have long to wait.
Thanks for your perspective.
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Adam L Silverman: Again, in my opinion, the terror here is a side-effect. The Russians are experimenting to figure out the best way to beat Ukrainian AD within their procurement constraints. The targets don’t matter to them, although it is admittedly better for the Russians if the Ukrainians have to scramble assets to protect those targets.
Here’s a falsifiable prediction: by February, at the latest, they will be targeting energy infrastructure again, using tactics based on what they learned from their December-January salvoes.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: If the Russians could afford 200 missile/week salvoes on a sustained basis, they would be firing at that rate already. They aren’t because that kind of capacity doesn’t exist. This isn’t a “Chairman Kissoff loves surprises” sort of situation, as there is no benefit from suddenly raising the average sustained firing rate by a factor of ten over gradually increasing it over the course of months as new capacity comes on-line. That’s very different from husbanding stocks for intermittent saturation raids.
Chris
@Alison Rose:
“You mean to tell me NATO strategy in Ukraine is to keep walking Ukrainians into Russian machine gun fire until the Russians run out of bullets?”
“That’s Joe Biden’s strategy, that’s not NATO strategy.”
“What is NATO strategy in Ukraine?”
“Well, strictly speaking, we don’t have one, but we’re working hard on that.”
“Who’s we?”
“Me and three other guys.”
Chris
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, not to make it all about us, but I’m getting seriously worried about the political costs at home.
I almost can’t blame Biden for the initial performative overreaction, because the last fifty years of domestic politics have taught all of us that there’s no such thing as being too pro-Israel, that no Democrat especially will ever be given credit for being pro-Israel enough, and that the few lefties and Muslims who don’t like our Israel policy will either shut up and take it or can be safely ignored…
… Only it’s gotten pretty clear that not only is this not the case anymore, but that the people angry at our Israel policy are strategically located in exactly those states that are on the razor’s edge and that we need to keep to win in 2024. And I see no sign at all that the White House is taking this into account, even three months later.
I appreciate that there’s still plenty of the Democratic coalition that doesn’t agree with this, but if Biden’s going to thread the needle between them, he needs to give the pissed off people something to show that he’s not just completely in the tank for Israel. No, negotiating a cease-fire to get the white people out before the carpet-bombing resumes is not “something.” No, leaking news to the Washington Post that you’re being very very severe with Bibi behind closed doors while at the same time you’re using executive privilege to unlock munitions for Israel that you never deigned to invoke for Ukraine is not “something.”
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
Yeah, you can.
Nobody on “the line” opens up a missile and looks inside.
You have crates with stenciled on serial numbers and other info, inside, missiles with the same stenciled on info.
A “right stencil”, a spray can of the right colour, a spray can of flat black paint,………..
YY_Sima Qian
@Chris: The initial outpouring of support to Israel was more than justified, since Hamas attacked w/o warning & carried out indiscriminate pogroms. Israel suffered large number of casualties in a very short period of time. However, as soon as it became apparent that the Israeli security forces are after revenge, alarms should have gone off & modulations of rhetoric & position were necessary.
YY_Sima Qian
@Jay: Poorly maintained cruise/ballistic missiles will either fail to fire, explode on launch, or fail mid-flight, each a relatively high profile event. Not as easy to hide as did cartridges or shells.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: If Putin wants the Ukrainians to have a miserable winter, I think the Russians strikes have to start having an impact now.
As you say, we will know soon enough.
Carlo Graziani
@YY_Sima Qian: 40F in Kyiv yesterday, the forecast is for temperatures to drop (barely) below freezing as of 1 January. So this is the ideal time for experimental raids designed to optimize tactics to be used in earnest against energy infrastructure when the true winter arrives.
One thing to be borne in mind is that while an 80-90% shoot-down rate seems insufficient to us and to the defenders, given the cost inflicted by the weapons that get through, it represents an 80-90% failure rate to the Russians. That has got to be galling to Russian political and military leadership, and potentially career-endangering to the Rocket Forces officers in charge of planning raids. Some effort to appreciably reduce that failure rate at the cost of some munitions expenditure against “worthless” targets seems to me very plausible and logical, given Russia’s well-known disregard for Law of War restrictions against targeting civilians.
Another Scott
@YY_Sima Qian: @Adam L Silverman:
Made me look. DSCA.mil:
Emphasis added.
I assume this is just standard language, but I wonder if Blinken and Biden use the fact that the announcement is just part of the process of the sale and transfer to try to put pressure on Bibi and company behind the scenes.
(Yeah, no evidence of that. But Biden knows how all this stuff works…)
[ insert Obama Biden is worse than Bush Turnip – He Sold Us Out!! graphic ]
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
wjca
Sounds more like the Russian strategy for running Ukraine out of ammo.