(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Let’s start with Belgorod, Russia:
To be crystal clear: no journalist has confirmed that Ukraine was behind the explosions in Belgorod. Everyone reporting on it this way is quite literally making shit up as they go.
— Sergey Mohov 🇺🇦 (@krides) December 30, 2023
What seems to happen is a whole lot of missiles and/or missile parts came down on Belgorod:
Some streets in Belgorod are getting clubbed. The war Russia started is very much back were it came from.
Source: https://t.co/2kjCXrUw4r#Russia #Belgorod #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/FmU0C5kdIv
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 30, 2023
It appears that Russian air defense hit whatever was fired at/over Belgorod, but the debris fell on Belgorod.
Russia bombarded Kharkiv again today:
Kharkiv city center is under Russian attack. Six explosions heard. Civilian building hit. More updates to follow pic.twitter.com/uor1gv2yBg
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 30, 2023
Kharkiv Palace Hotel in Kharkiv has been hit. Just awful. Many international journalists frequently stayed there pic.twitter.com/VqlzW32Eys
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 30, 2023
More on both of these after the jump, as well as revised butcher’s bill for Russia’s massive bombardment of Ukraine.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
Next year will be a time of global decisions, and Ukraine needs to be able to influence them and achieve its goals – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s address
30 December 2023 – 22:39
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
Briefly about this day.
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting was special, summing up the year. And it also concerned next year. All that has been done this year, and what needs to be done next year. The Commander-in-Chief, the General Staff reported. Our action plan for 2024 was also presented.
A report by the Defense Intelligence and external intelligence was heard. About what the occupiers are preparing for, and in general, about the situation – about general military-political expectations and possible events in the world.
Despite everything that will happen in other countries, despite any political changes and moods, we need sufficient potential to do our own thing. To achieve our goals. It is clear that next year will be a time of many decisions – global decisions. And Ukraine needs to be able to influence them – to be able to achieve its goals. We will fight for our influence, for justice for Ukraine, and I am grateful to all the leaders who help, who have been with us since February 24th and will be with us in 2024.
Today, the entire day has been dedicated to reports on the relief operations in the aftermath of Russian strikes. In total, more than 120 of our cities and villages were affected by yesterday’s Russian attack. A total of 39 fatalities. My condolences go out to everyone who has lost loved ones. It is crucial to provide all necessary assistance to those affected –whose homes and apartments have been damaged by terrorists. It is important to address it both at the government and local levels. Ukrainian rescuers, doctors, police officers, all employees of municipal enterprises involved – I thank you for helping people, working around the clock to save as many lives as possible!
Currently, a rescue operation is underway again in Kharkiv – 17 people have been injured in another strike. And for every such strike in Kharkiv, in our Kherson region, in the cities and villages of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia region… For all strikes in Odesa, Sumy region, Kyiv, and all our other cities and regions. For every “Shahed” drone, for every Russian missile, there will be a fair responsibility of the terrorist state. Both political and very practical.
We are preparing to produce more weapons next year. We already have a clear schedule for our international work in January. We are working with our partners on solutions needed by every Ukrainian soldier, our entire nation, our state. And these decisions will be strong.
My special gratitude goes to all our partners for the new operational work to strengthen our air defense system. It is not only us who work 24/7 in the free world – and it is important. It is crucial for the resistance against terror not to cease even for a day. So that Russia cannot win anything in this war. And it will be so.
I thank all our soldiers! I thank everyone who works for our state and people!
Glory to Ukraine!
Prague, Czechia:
Absolute badass of a country.
Love and respect for the good people of 🇨🇿Czechia. https://t.co/5dHErh3sAz— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 30, 2023
Here’s the revised butcher’s bill from yesterday’s attacks:
In Kyiv alone, at least 16 killed in yesterday's Russian missile barrage.
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 30, 2023
39 Ukrainians killed in Russia’s barbaric attack. Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and Odesa have days of mourning today pic.twitter.com/tijo69XjTp
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 30, 2023
There was some discussion in the comments last night about Putin’s and Russia’s objectives in these massive bombardments. Here’s Rob Lee’s take.
I think this is more of a continuation of its previous campaign rather than an aberration. The large number and types of missiles and drones launched + number of cities targeted is a method designed to counter Ukraine's improved air defenses compared to last winter.
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 30, 2023
Kharkiv:
It is grim to say, but some of the most dangerous places to be are the hotels where journalists/international NGO people stay. They are deliberately targeted. When I’m traveling about I choose smaller guest houses and such when available. https://t.co/5R97SsgUAn
— A. Bartaway🇺🇦❤️✊✌️ (@Bartaway) December 30, 2023
Avdiivka:
This Ukrainian M2 Bradley destroys Russian manpower almost point blank near.
There are also several Russian vehicles (looks like BMPs) getting the same love by the 25mm Bushmaster cannon. They are getting beaten up pretty bad, while Russians try to hide behind them but to no… pic.twitter.com/fljLDrYStt
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 30, 2023
This Ukrainian M2 Bradley destroys Russian manpower almost point blank near.
There are also several Russian vehicles (looks like BMPs) getting the same love by the 25mm Bushmaster cannon. They are getting beaten up pretty bad, while Russians try to hide behind them but to no avail. They are all just cannon fodder. And food they became, first for the Bradley and later for the wildlife.
Source: https://t.me/operativnoZSU/129606
Video of a Ukrainian T-64 tank firing at Russian positions at close range with its main cannon and NSVT machine gun. The tank was helping evacuate Ukrainian infantry that was surrounded. https://t.co/KMgafVjWeN pic.twitter.com/7BIvXYxnwL
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) December 30, 2023
Somewhere in the Donbas:
The sailors of Donbas sea! pic.twitter.com/QkKUg7pVe4
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 30, 2023
Vuhledar
Vuhledar.
Ukraine’s greatest national poet is with us all. pic.twitter.com/Ym7ICkew12— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) December 30, 2023
Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Strikes on Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled 203mm cannon and two 9K33 Osa air defence systems. Left bank Kherson region.https://t.co/rQvrAYYNUm pic.twitter.com/J7L0FG8RhP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 30, 2023
Russian occupied Kherson, Oblast:
HIMARS strike on the Russian 2S19 Msta-S 152.4mm self-propelled howitzer in Kherson region. https://t.co/NXT3PXo4RD pic.twitter.com/JZI4V69o3q
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 30, 2023
Obligatory:
More on whatever actually happened in Belgorod, Russia:
Amid Russian speculations on Belgorod strikes: Russia started this war, brutally invaded Ukraine, and holds full responsibility for civilian casualties. Withdraw your troops now to prevent further loss of life pic.twitter.com/JAAOw67Il3
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) December 30, 2023
Бєлгород на прийомі!
Ви хотіли цієї війни, отримуйте! Вся рашка має палати!
Такого не буде, стерті росіянами українські міста і тиха спокійна рашка
Telegram – https://t.co/KAN417akXx pic.twitter.com/GYTSxNAYCl
— Анатолій Штефан (Штірліц) (@Shtirlitz53) December 30, 2023
Welcome to Belgorod!
You wanted this war, get it! All of Russia must burn!
This will not happen, the Russians have erased the Ukrainian cities and the quiet peaceful country
Telegram – http://t.me/a_shtirlitz
Whatever has happened in Belgorod, I'm finding the footage sickening and difficult to watch.
However, coming to my mind is the Kyiv TV tower attack on 1 March 2022. Mutilated bodies of innocent bypassers, scorched by powerful explosions. Since then, we've seen thousands and…
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) December 30, 2023
Whatever has happened in Belgorod, I’m finding the footage sickening and difficult to watch.
However, coming to my mind is the Kyiv TV tower attack on 1 March 2022. Mutilated bodies of innocent bypassers, scorched by powerful explosions. Since then, we’ve seen thousands and thousands of similar acts of violence perpetrated by Putin’s forces.
He ordered his henchmen to use a derogatory term against a country of 40 million people, calling it the “SMO zone”.
As if there’s a door that you can open from the safe Russian side, and behind it you will find war and devastation. Terrible things can only happen in the “SMO zone”, says Putin to Russians, but you are safe.
But this should not be the case. Anyone supporting the war on the other side should know they bear responsibility and this responsibility might hit them at any moment.
For two years, they’ve been too secure. Too secure compared to what they did, do, and will be doing in Ukraine.
Responsibility for what happened today in Belgorod lies squarely on Putin and his supporters. And I’m not necessarily referring to the fact that Russian S-300 in their own typical way of being Made-in-Russia garbage hit their own people. It goes far beyond than that.
This entire… pic.twitter.com/mKxIrBYqYW
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 30, 2023
Responsibility for what happened today in Belgorod lies squarely on Putin and his supporters. And I’m not necessarily referring to the fact that Russian S-300 in their own typical way of being Made-in-Russia garbage hit their own people. It goes far beyond than that.
This entire war was doomed to come back to Russia. It was Moscow where this war has been conceived and here we have the results. From a 3-day “special operation” to a full scale war where hundreds of thousands Russians already perished. Now when Russians completely lost control of things, it was only a matter of time that it will hit them.
Russian calls for “vengeance” are as dumb as they are redundant. They don’t need excuses to murder, they already murder as they please. They can only convince the last uncertain one in the West that peace can only be established by completely annihilating the Russian army in Ukraine and the surrounding border area. Hitting Kharkiv right now is as self-defeating as it can be. It won’t shatter Ukrainian resolve, in the contrary. The Ukrainian nation has never been so unified and determined. They will do whatever is necessary for their freedom and independence.
For those looking to make a donation before the end of the year:
Thanks https://t.co/HKCzX8yorq for a great New Year’s gift! 🎁😻🍉
You can make a special New Year’s gift for yourself or your friend! And at the same time help 🇺🇦 to defeat evil.
Help Ukrainian soldiers get the equipment they need to fight-back Russian invaders!@SignMyRocket pic.twitter.com/1bHPh0xg6G
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) December 30, 2023
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today, but here’s an adjacent one from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.
Ukrainian warrior and his furry comrade are preparing for the New Year.
📹: Liut Brigade pic.twitter.com/0TqE5gWSdW
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) December 30, 2023
There is a new video at Patron’s official TikTok.
@patron__dsns Мій 2023 рік в картинках. Було багато хорошого: зустрічі з гарними людьми, безліч добрих справ, робота з найкращою командою у світі. Та було й погане… Мрію, щоб 2024 рік видався кращим і щасливішим для усіх людей і для України. Усіх обіймаю і дарую передноворічний лизь!❤️🐾 #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
My 2023 in pictures. There were many good things: meetings with good people, many good deeds, working with the best team in the world. But there were also some bad things… I dream that 2024 will be a better and happier year for all people and for Ukraine. I hug everyone and give you a New Year’s lick! ❤️🐾 #песпатрон
Open thread!
Another Scott
Happy New Year’s Adam, Adam, and everyone.
Slava Ukraini!!
Cheers,
Scott.
Carlo Graziani
@Another Scott: Yeah, that was quite an own-goal. It suggests that, possibly, the Ukrainians should simply launch cheap unarmed drones at targets in Russia, and just let Russian air defense do the damage.
Gin & Tonic
That Shtirlitz Tweet has translation issues. “Вся рашка має палати” means “All of russia must burn.” The second word, рашка (rashka) is a colloquial term for russia. The last word is a weird one – it is both the infinitive “to burn” and the plural of palaces or chambers.
Anonymous At Work
Good news on the “Are our military learning front” in that the Air Force is debating removing the close-air support features from AC-130 gunships, since Russian and Chinese militaries won’t let an aircraft circle overhead for an hour, taking pot-shots.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-may-remove-big-gun-from-ac130-gunship-2023-12
Another Scott
Not to hijack the thread, but this seems to me to be a thoughtful and important piece. TheCrimson.com:
Wise words that apply in many situations, no matter one’s religion. We have to be able to talk about – and listen to – all kinds of things without losing sight of the dangers of those loud voices who have other goals in mind.
Well worth a click, IMHO.
Peace and comfort to the innocents.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Thank you again, Adam,
Tendar is right.
Alison Rose
In the NYT’s article about the attack on Belgorod, they say:
But the article is headlined “Ukrainian Missile Attack on a Russian City Kills at Least 20, Officials Say”. Using russian statements to headline and lead off the article and then shoving in a little “could not be verified” feels absurd to me. People just seeing the headline are going to think it’s proven that it was Ukraine, and the “Officials Say” doesn’t indicated which officials. This is so lazy.
In other news: TANK CAT.
Thank you as always, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
@Alison Rose: The NYT is garbage.
Jay
https://nitter.net/AlliGee8TV/status/1741147167425798210#m
Wombat Probability Cloud
@Anonymous At Work: Clearly, they have no long-range plan for the zombie apocalypse…
Jay
@Alison Rose:
given ruZZian claims of how many F-16’s they have shot down, how many HIMARS they have destroyed, how many Abrams tanks they have captured, etc, ad nauseum,
I doubt that anything happened in Belogrod.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I have fixed it.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Just how many of me do you think there are?
I’m pretty sure one of me is more than sufficient. Two of me is definitely one too many. I’m also pretty sure for most people one of me is definitely one too many.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: Read that yesterday. It is a very good piece.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: @Alison Rose: You’re both most welcome.
Another Scott
@Adam L Silverman:
It was a clumsy attempt on my part to be funny – a variation on Christmas Adam.
:-)
Cheers,
Scott.
Parfigliano
So Russians killing Russians in Belogrod. Seems likely. Hope they keep at it.
Ksmiami
@Carlo Graziani: where the fuck is Biden?
wjca
In particular, the NYT headline writers are garbage. It’s a pretty small group, but does disproportionate damage.
Adam L Silverman
@Another Scott: No worries.
Vadranor
Adam,
Perhaps you can answer this question. There has to be people in Brussels, both at the EU and NATO, who are familiar with Polish history. They cannot be unaware of the catastrophic impact that the demand for unanimity at the Polish Sejm (Parliament) had on the country, including the disappearance of Poland as a separate country for more than a century. So why do the EU and NATO require unanimity (or to use their euphemism consensus) in decisions. The population of the EU is 448 million; Hungary has a population of 10 million. To give individual autocrats such as Orban or Erdogan enormous power to blackmail other members is lunacy.
Andrya
@Vadranor: I totally agree with you- it’s almost as bad a lunacy as the Electoral College in the US.
Let me also express my opinionated opinion about what Orban is doing- he’s expecting a putin victory and russian domination of Eastern Europe (which may G-d forbid) and wants putin to keep him in power. (“Hey, Vlad, I’m your good buddy! I blocked EU aid to Ukraine!”.)
YY_Sima Qian
@Vadranor: Unlike the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the EU & NATO are not sovereign entities in their own right, unanimity is the price paid to bring member states into the fold. This is especially true in the case of NATO, which is a mutual defense alliance. Countries would be more hesitant to join NATO if they perceive that they can be hijacked to serve as fodder to advance the foreign policy priorities of the US or Germany/France/UK.
bjacques
@Andrya: I hope the EU slow-walks release to Hungary of those withheld €10B development funds. It was a bribe that clearly failed and made them look like mugs.
I reckon it wouldn’t be hard to take the dispersal pattern of the Belgorod “missile strikes” and prove they resulted from a shootdown.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Timill
@YY_Sima Qian: These days, the EU uses Qualified Majority Voting for most things. Some things (including the stuff we care about) still take unanimity.
glc
@Adam L Silverman: Back up everything.
Jesse
Thank you Adam.
YY_Sima Qian
OT, but a couple of days ago the China National People’s Congress (NPC) announced dismissals of 9 very senior current & former military commanders. The China National People’s Political Consultative Congress (NPPCC) also announced dismissals of several senior executives in Chinese state owned weapons manufacturers. The 9 generals include 6 retired senior commanders & 3 slightly less senior active duty commanders. 2 were senior officers in the PLA Rocket Forces (PLARF) that had been reported missing at the same time as the disgraced Defense Minister Li Shangfu back in the summer. 8 out of 9 have direction connections Li Shangfu, either through the PLA Rocket Forces (PLARF) or the PLA Equipment Development Department (EDD), for which Li Shangfu was the former head, before appointment as the DM. These actions signifies an ongoing purge of Li’s associates.
Here is WaPo’s coverage:
Here is a good overview by Lyle Morris on Twitter:
Having lived in China since 2007, I would say that Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has had a dramatic impact on suppressing the petty corruption that use to be ubiquitous in daily lives. Talking to people who work inside of the Party-State bureaucracy at various levels, the consensus is that there are far fewer opportunities for graft (& elevated fear for engaging in such activities), compensation has remained stagnant (especially in light of recent financial difficulties across many local governments due to the deflation of the real estate bubble), while demands on performance & workload have gone up significantly.
Nevertheless, there remain many opportunities for corrupt dealings between government & businesses, particularly when the Party-State bureaucracy is distracted by more urgent challenges & the entire machinery has been mobilized to pursue a single object at all costs. That is inevitable given the PRC’s hard authoritarian governance, inadequate institutionalization for internal check, & lack of independent press & judiciary. One example is the ‘Dynamic Zero COVID” policy, which spawned numerous new businesses that went into manufacturing of RT-PCR tests, establishing labs doing the RT-PCR assays on an industrial scale, constructing temporary hospitals or quarantine centers, etc. There were rumors & hints of shady deals on a massive scale in many localities, from no-bid contracts awarded to the well connected to price gauging the local governments to sham operations. Apparently, something similar had gone on w/ the ongoing expansion of the PRC’s nuclear arsenal, specifically the massive fields of missile siloes constructed in the PRC’s NW regions, & possibly the massive expansion of the already extensive tunnel networks that hide the PLARF’s road mobile missile batteries. That explains the nexus connecting the PLARF & the EDD.
Western reporting has raised the possibility of an intel leak leading to the purge. While not out of the realm of possibility, the number of current/former senior commanders purged, as well as senior executives in the Chinese MIC, would suggest a massive network of agents in service of foreign powers that has penetrated the PLA & the Chinese MIC at the highest levels, as opposed to a discrete failure (no matter how damaging). This would rival & possibly exceed the penetration that the CIA had achieved into the upper echelons of the CPC regime back in the late 00s, & its dismantling would be just as damaging as when the CIA network was rolled up in 2010. Given recent reporting, I find it rather implausible. Historically, senior officials who had close associate turning out to be foreign intelligence assets would see their careers end, but would not otherwise be visibly punished themselves, unless directly implicated.