Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

When we show up, we win.

I conferred with the team and they all agree – still not tired of winning!

This really is a full service blog.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

I wonder if trump will be tried as an adult.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

No one could have predicted…

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

“Can i answer the question? No you can not!”

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

When the time comes to make an endorsement, the pain of NYT editors will be palpable as they reluctantly whisper “Biden.”

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

An unpunished coup is a training exercise.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Books are my comfort food!

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 680: Strike Sevastapol!

War for Ukraine Day 680: Strike Sevastapol!

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I’m still fried – spent the holiday weekend battling a sinus infection and won – so going to keep this on the shorter side (if that’s possible) so I can rack out.

Russian occupied Crimea:

More on this after President Zelenskyy’s address. The video of that is below, English transcript after the jump.

Ensuring the supply of additional air defense systems and missiles is the number one priority – address by the President of Ukraine

4 January 2024 – 19:23

Dear Ukrainians!

These days, many regions of our state – various cities and villages, border areas, areas near the frontline and throughout the country – have been subjected to Russian shelling, massive missile strikes, and continuous attacks by “Shahed” drones. Obviously, the rulers of the terrorist state tried to use this New Year’s period – the end of last year, the first days of this year – to break our spirit and bring back the old threat we faced last year. The threat of destruction of our energy sector, the foundations of our life.

Our defenders of the sky are doing everything possible to protect the state. The entire team of our diplomats, all those responsible for communication with partners, and Ukrainian representatives abroad are doing everything they can to ensure the delivery of additional air defense systems and missiles. This is the number one priority. Of course, the same top priority is new support packages for our warriors. Artillery, including 155 mm caliber, electronic warfare equipment, new drones and other necessary items. I am grateful to all our partners who are already forming new support packages. There will be a lot of relevant communication this month.

But now, today, I would like to commend those who are working day and night, on any holiday and in any conditions, throughout Ukraine to eliminate the consequences of Russian strikes. Sumy, Chernihiv, Lviv, Odesa, Kharkiv and Kyiv, Dnipro and Nikopol, Kryvyi Rih and Orikhiv. Zaporizhzhia. The cities of Donetsk region. Kherson region. Everywhere. Our rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. Volunteers who help. Our police officers. I thank all of you whose job is to rescue people!

I would like to mention in particular the rescuers working in Kyiv: Master Sergeant Dmytro Tarasenko, Sergeant Anton Dyachenko, and Chief Master Sergeant Andriy Sheliakov. Thank you, guys! Odesa, State Emergency Service of Ukraine: Senior Master Sergeant Oleksandr Dmytrenko and Colonel Andriy Zadoyanyi. Thank you! Kharkiv: Sergeants Vyacheslav Iukhno and Oleksandr Zinchenko. Well done! Kherson: Sergeants Yevheniy Samiylyk and Dmytro Motuz. Sumy: Master Sergeant Roman Shchykot and commander of the 35th state fire and rescue post Oleksandr Batiukhno. Thank you! I would also like to recognize the employees of Sumy region’s utility companies: Oleksandr Reshetnyk and Oleksandr Dzekelev, Esman village community. Also, I would like to mention Taras Ovsiychuk, a pediatric surgeon at the Kherson Children’s Regional Clinical Hospital, and Yuriy Shashkin, a doctor of the emergency team working in Kherson region. I thank you all for your work! Valeria Churkina, a police officer in Kharkiv region, Police Lieutenant, thank you! Serhiy Mykolayenko, a tractor driver at a Kharkiv utility company involved in the elimination of the consequences of the strikes. Thank you, Serhiy! Maksym Baranetskyi, Odesa regional organization of the Ukrainian Red Cross Society. Volodymyr Sudak, a fire and rescue specialist who works for a utility company in Odesa and distinguished himself in rescue operations. And also Olena Sakharova, a volunteer at the rapid response unit of the Ukrainian Red Cross Society.

I thank you and everyone who works to save lives!

We must withstand Russian terror and defend our country.

Glory to Ukraine!

More on the Sevastopol and Yevparoriya strikes!

/5.
Commander of the Air Force of Ukraine:
«🔥 Hello to the occupiers in Crimea!
I am waiting for the same epic report from Sevastopol and Yevpatoria on January 4th from enemy propaganda, and thank you again
✈️ to the pilots of the Air Force and everyone who planned the operation, for impeccable combat work 🎯»

While writing regarding the attack he also attached photo of a Russian base near Uiutne, Yevpatoriya area. The base is a known location where one of the S-400 divisions is deployed.
(45.2190684, 33.2600335)

https://t.me/MykolaOleshchuk/181

 

Defence Express says that the North Korean missiles which were used by Russia to attack Ukraine were KN-23. Which is a copy of the Russian Islander but with a better characteristics. KN-23 has a range of 690km (confirmed range) and 500kg warhead.

The first presentation of KN-23 took place back in February 2019. During one of the test launches in July of the same year, the missile was able to show a launch range of as much as 690 kilometers.

https://defence-ua.com/news/kndr_maje_kopiju_iskandera_pid_nazvoju_kn_23_nimi_vzhe_mogli_biti_po_ukrajini-14025.html

I know that a lot of the DPRK munitions are garbage, but this is still a very good question.

This is also a very good question.

 

The Wall Street Journal:
• Russia is planning to buy short-range ballistic missiles from Iran, a step that would enhance Moscow’s ability to target Ukraine’s infrastructure at a critical moment in the conflict, U.S. officials said.
• Moscow in recent weeks has also begun receiving ballistic missiles from North Korea.
• Moscow’s plans have provoked deep concern within the Biden administration
https://wsj.com/world/russia-moves-forward-with-plans-to-buy-iranian-ballistic-missiles-cf3560e4

Good to know they’re deeply concerned. Everyone knows Putin fears deeply concerned more than anything.

And analysis from Dara Massicot:

 

Here’s Germany’s latest aid package:

We are grateful to our German friends for their new military aid package, which includes:

▪️ Ammunition for Leopard 2A6
▪️10 Marder 1A3 IFVs
▪️ IRIS-T SLM missiles
▪️ 1 air defence system SKYNEX with ammunition
▪️ 2 air surveillance radar TRML-4D
▪️ 9,080 shells of 155mm artillery ammunition
▪️ 2 mine clearing tanks WISENT 1
▪️1 bridge-laying tanks BEAVER with spare parts
▪️ 3,350 combat helmets
▪️30 drone detection systems
▪️10 ground surveillance radars GO12
▪️10 trucks Zetros
▪️3 HX81
▪️1 Semi-trailer for HX81
▪️34 vehicles (trucks, minibuses, all-terrain vehicles)
▪️305 MK 556 rifles
▪️0.75 million rounds of firearm ammunition
▪️1,152 Winter camouflage nets
▪️2,000 Winter camouflage Ponchos

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

That’s nice, but it’s far from adequate.

Just to remind everyone, here is the mismatch: (emphasis mine)

The Ukrainian military is likely to face significant equipment shortages over the coming year: at the height of its 2023 offensive, Ukraine was firing up to 7,000 artillery rounds per day, accounting for up to 80 percent of Russia’s combat losses. By the end of 2023, however, Ukrainian forces were firing closer to 2,000 rounds per day. Russia’s artillery capacity, meanwhile, has turned a corner, with Russian forces now firing up around 10,000 rounds per day. Unless Ukraine can again create localized conditions of artillery superiority, any new offensive operations will result in unsustainable losses of Ukrainian troops.

It is essential that Kyiv and its partners establish a realistic shared understanding of what materiel and training can be provided, and when. Over the past two years, Kyiv’s Western allies wasted the time advantages they did have, squandering much of 2022 and 2023 basking in the euphoria of Russia’s early setbacks and imagining that they could avoid a protracted conflict. Rather than seeking to expand industrial capacity in NATO member states, Kyiv’s friends mainly sourced munitions from national stockpiles and the international market and channeled them to Ukraine.

Now these stockpiles of munitions are running low. To continue to achieve localized artillery superiority, Ukraine will need about 2.4 million rounds of ammunition per year. But Ukraine’s international partners, including the United States, will struggle to provide half that in 2024.

Ukraine’s shortage of artillery shells gets the most attention. But its resource limitations are by no means confined to ammunition. To regenerate offensive capacity and defend itself against Russian attacks, Ukraine will need approximately 1,800 replacement artillery barrels per year. The handful of barrel machines in Europe cannot meet this demand. The numerous fleets of vehicles gifted to Kyiv over the past two years also need a reliable supply of spare parts. Air defense interceptors will be a persistent requirement, too: Russia is now producing over 100 cruise and ballistic missiles and 300 attack drones per month. To contain the damage from these weapons, Ukraine will need resupplies of Western air-defense systems. If Western countries do not increase their capacity to produce these systems, Russia will gain the upper hand.

Timothy Garton Ash has some thoughts on what needs to be done.

From The Financial Times:

While many of us started the new year with fireworks, good cheer and the company of loved ones, Ukrainians faced massive Russian aerial attacks, shattered apartments and the murder of loved ones.

Vladimir Putin is determined to defeat and destroy an independent Ukraine. Ukraine is equally determined to resist. But what are the rest of the world’s democracies resolved to achieve in this epoch-defining struggle? The answer we give in 2024 will not only shape the future of Europe. It will also tell us something important about the relative strengths of early 21st-century democracy and autocracy.

For a start, we must be clear where things stand on the ground in Ukraine. There is no stalemate of the kind that might lead to a frozen conflict or negotiated settlement, as some in the west naively hope. Rather, we are in the middle of a long, complex war that will probably last until at least 2025, if not longer. Neither side is giving up; either can still win, but not both.

Putin is exploiting all his advantages of scale, ruthlessness and dictatorship at home and the support of other such regimes abroad, including Iran, North Korea and China. Ukraine itself faces some big choices, including whether to draft a large number of young men to regenerate its depleted and exhausted forces. But decisive for the outcome of the conflict will be choices made in the next few months by the democracies supporting Kyiv.

At the moment, we are doing enough to stop Ukraine being defeated but not enough to help it win. In 2024, we could provide the tools for Kyiv to regain more territory and convince Russia it can’t prevail. That is the only path to a lasting peace.

Immediately, in a matter of days, this means more air defences. In a matter of weeks, it means more long-range missiles, notably the German Taurus, but also American ATACMS, so Ukraine can continue to push back Putin’s Black Sea fleet and target his strategic and symbolic stronghold in Crimea.

However, as a recent Estonian defence ministry study explains in compelling detail, the long-term essentials for Kyiv’s victory will be more extensive training of Ukrainian troops and a rapid, substantial increase in industrial production of weapons and munitions. (Of the 1mn artillery rounds the EU has promised Ukraine by March, less than a third have so far been delivered.)

Democracies, unlike dictatorships, can’t do this by command. Our political system requires the leaders of multiple national democracies to agree on clear strategic ends and persuade their voters and parliaments to authorise the necessary means. Even before the possible disaster of a second Donald Trump presidency, it’s plain that the US, given the febrile and fragile state of its democracy, is not going to lead this step change.

The responsibility therefore falls on Europe — and at issue, after all, is the defence of a European country.

Much more at the link!

Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia & Russian occupied Crimea:

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Stepove, Avdiivka Front:

Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia front:

The Ukrainian-Transnistrian border:

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

More on the New Year’s day strike in Belgorod, Russia:

Photo of the aftermath of FPV drones attack on the logistics base of one of the units of the 1st Tank Army of Russia. Shebekinsky district, Belgorod region, Russia:

“01/01/2024 at 08:00.
The main strike was on the premises of the fuel and lubricants warehouse. From there, the fire quickly spread to the neighboring building, where Urals, GAZ-66 were being repaired.

As a result of the impact, several vehicles were completely burned out. 8 servicemen who were at the fuel and lubricants warehouse received burn injuries of varying severity. One died as a result of his injuries in the Shebekino hospital.
https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/469

Shagol Air Base, Chelyabinsk, Russia:

🔥 Su-34 bomber burned down in Russia

👉 The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs: on the night of January 4, 2024, a Su-34 tactical bomber burned down at the Russian airfield “Shagol” (Chelyabinsk).

🔗 https://gur.gov.ua/content/na-rosii-zghoriv-bombarduvalnyk-su-34.html

The Financial Times has the details:

Russian lieutenant Daniil Alfyorov accomplished what the rest of Vladimir Putin’s army failed to do when it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine: he reached central Kyiv.

Speaking into a cluster of microphones while sitting between two Ukrainian military intelligence officers in October, the 27-year-old denounced his country’s unprovoked war and said he had surrendered voluntarily.

The Moscow military school graduate also helped 11 Russian troops fighting under his command in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region to do the same.

The 12 men handed themselves over to Kyiv after calling the “I want to live” hotline, set up for Russian troops who want to defect and operated by Ukraine’s military intelligence unit (GUR). Their surrender — known as “Operation Barynya” by GUR in reference to a Russian folk dance — provided Ukraine with valuable battlefield intelligence.

As of December, more than 220 Russian soldiers had given themselves up through the hotline, Vitaliy Matvienko, a spokesperson for GUR’s department for prisoners of war, told the Financial Times. More than 1,000 other cases were pending, Matvienko added, disclosing both figures for the first time.

GUR set up the hotline in September 2022, just three days before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s partial mobilisation. On top of the roughly 190,000 troops involved in the Kremlin’s initial invasion in February that year, Moscow was mobilising some 300,000 reservists. The “I want to live” hotline started ringing off the hook.

Many Russian men did not want to go to war, Matvienko said, citing conversations between newly mobilised Russian men and his 10 hotline operators.

The FT listened to a recording of one of the calls, which begins: “Hello, you called the hotline of the defence intelligence of Ukraine. Do you want to live?”

“Hello, yes,” came the answer. “Someone gave me this number. Can you help me surrender?”

Less than a month after its launch, the project secured its first successful surrender. Since then, about three Russian soldiers hand themselves over every week and are taken into Ukrainian custody as prisoners of war.

The hotline has so far received more than 26,000 calls via phone and an accompanying chatbot on Telegram messenger. Its website hochuzhit.com has been visited more than 48mn times — including 46mn visits from within Russia. The website was blocked inside Russia days after it went live but remains accessible via services that hide the user’s internet address.

Both Ukraine and Russia have employed information campaigns, or what Matvienko called “psyops”, meaning psychological operations. They target the other side with leaflets dropped from the air, mass text messages, radio and television ads, and even shouting from trench to trench. Not all efforts have been successful, but Matvienko said the hotline had paid dividends.

GUR sees the Russian soldiers as a currency with which it can buy back Ukrainian prisoners of war. Prisoner exchanges have occurred frequently over the course of the war, although the pace has slowed.

Before the Russians are released Matvienko provides them with “I want to live” business cards to hand out to men in Russia who might be mobilised, in case they want to escape when they arrive in Ukraine. He calls this “preliminary surrender”, allowing them to jump-start the application process.

By the time a Russian recruit who opted for “preliminary surrender” arrives in Ukraine, GUR will have already processed his application and conducted a background check, shortening the time the soldier has to spend on the battlefield before surrender.

The “I want to live” hotline is staffed 24 hours a day, seven days a week by 10 operators working from a secret location in Kyiv. The team is composed of military psychologists and analysts whom Matvienko said were specially trained to speak to the Russian soldiers.

Aside from the difficulty of finding a safe place to surrender, Russian soldiers live in constant fear of their own comrades turning their guns on them — as recorded in battlefield videos and phone intercepts consulted by the FT.

“When an enemy calls you in tears, saying that he wants to live, he needs to be calmed down,” Matvienko said.

Much more at the link!

Reuters has more details on the Russian hack of Kyivstar mobile providers:

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) – Russian hackers were inside Ukrainian telecoms giant Kyivstar’s system from at least May last year in a cyberattack that should serve as a “big warning” to the West, Ukraine’s cyber spy chief told Reuters.

The hack, one of the most dramatic since Russia’s full-scale invasion nearly two years ago, knocked out services provided by Ukraine’s biggest telecoms operator for some 24 million users for days from Dec. 12.

In an interview, Illia Vitiuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) cybersecurity department, disclosed exclusive details about the hack, which he said caused “disastrous” destruction and aimed to land a psychological blow and gather intelligence.

“This attack is a big message, a big warning, not only to Ukraine, but for the whole Western world to understand that no one is actually untouchable,” he said. He noted Kyivstar was a wealthy, private company that invested a lot in cybersecurity.

The attack wiped “almost everything”, including thousands of virtual servers and PCs, he said, describing it as probably the first example of a destructive cyberattack that “completely destroyed the core of a telecoms operator.”

During its investigation, the SBU found the hackers probably attempted to penetrate Kyivstar in March or earlier, he said in a Zoom interview on Dec. 27.

“For now, we can say securely, that they were in the system at least since May 2023,” he said. “I cannot say right now, since what time they had … full access: probably at least since November.”

The SBU assessed the hackers would have been able to steal personal information, understand the locations of phones, intercept SMS-messages and perhaps steal Telegram accounts with the level of access they gained, he said.

A Kyivstar spokesperson said the company was working closely with the SBU to investigate the attack and would take all necessary steps to eliminate future risks, adding: “No facts of leakage of personal and subscriber data have been revealed.”

Vitiuk said the SBU helped Kyivstar restore its systems within days and to repel new cyber attacks.

“After the major break there were a number of new attempts aimed at dealing more damage to the operator,” he said.

Kyivstar is the biggest of Ukraine’s three main telecoms operators and there are some 1.1 million Ukrainians who live in small towns and villages where there are no other providers, Vitiuk said.

People rushed to buy other SIM cards because of the attack, creating large queues. ATMs using Kyivstar SIM cards for the internet ceased to work and the air-raid siren – used during missile and drone attacks – did not function properly in some regions, he said.

He said the attack had no big impact on Ukraine’s military, which did not rely on telecoms operators and made use of what he described as “different algorithms and protocols”.

“Speaking about drone detection, speaking about missile detection, luckily, no, this situation didn’t affect us strongly,” he said.

Investigating the attack is harder because of the wiping of Kyivstar’s infrastructure.

Vitiuk said he was “pretty sure” it was carried out by Sandworm, a Russian military intelligence cyberwarfare unit that has been linked to cyberattacks in Ukraine and elsewhere.

A year ago, Sandworm penetrated a Ukrainian telecoms operator, but was detected by Kyiv because the SBU had itself been inside Russian systems, Vitiuk said, declining to identify the company. The earlier hack has not been previously reported.

Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a written request for comment on Vitiuk’s remarks.

Vitiuk said the pattern of behaviour suggested telecoms operators could remain a target of Russian hackers. The SBU thwarted over 4,500 major cyberattacks on Ukrainian governmental bodies and critical infrastructure last year, he said.

A group called Solntsepyok, believed by the SBU to be affiliated with Sandworm, said it was responsible for the attack.

Vitiuk said SBU investigators were still working to establish how Kyivstar was penetrated or what type of trojan horse malware could have been used to break in, adding that it could have been phishing, someone helping on the inside or something else.

If it was an inside job, the insider who helped the hackers did not have a high level of clearance in the company, as the hackers made use of malware used to steal hashes of passwords, he said.

Samples of that malware have been recovered and are being analysed, he added.

Kyivstar’s CEO, Oleksandr Komarov, said on Dec. 20 that all the company’s services had been fully restored throughout the country. Vitiuk praised the SBU’s incident response effort to safely restore the systems.

The attack on Kyivstar may have been made easier because of similarities between it and Russian mobile operator Beeline, which was built with similar infrastructure, Vitiuk said.

The sheer size of Kyivstar’s infrastructure would have been easier to navigate with expert guidance, he added.

The destruction at Kyivstar began at around 5:00 a.m. local time while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in Washington, pressing the West to continue supplying aid.

Vitiuk said the attack was not accompanied by a major missile and drone strike at a time when people were having communication difficulties, limiting its impact while also relinquishing a powerful intelligence-gathering tool.

Why the hackers chose Dec. 12 was unclear, he said, adding: “Maybe some colonel wanted to become a general.”

If you need some new tactical gear for 2024:

M-TAC… if you’re in Ukraine and if your life is tied to this damned decade-long war, you know this brand.

I love this Ukrainian company that produces all sorts of tactical clothes, gear, and footwear, and I’ve been their loyal customer since 2017.

I wear my favorite M-TAC police-style soft shell jacket every single day (it’s even on my profile pic!) It was with me during the Battle of Kyiv and in Bakhmut, and in the woods of northern Donbas during the Battle of Lyman.

Their tactical pants served me well in Africa, in heat and rain. When my health status was much better and I was a zealous bicycle rider, I never parted with their 60-liter black tactical backpack.

And for years, I never had anything for my Donbas war front trips but M-TAC’s Coyote boots, especially the high quarter ones.

Now, as you can see in the news, M-MAC’s production and storage facilities were damaged and destroyed in Russia’s recent missile attacks.

Fortunately, no casualties.

So now, many in Ukraine really want to support the Ukrainian company and buy something from what they have in stores to help it get back on its feet ASAP.

I feel like I should invite you to join the effort, too.

M-TAC has an online store based in Poland that delivers items across Europe and now apparently also the United States and Canada: https://m-tac.pl/en/

(M-TAC neither asked nor paid me for this tweet, it’s nothing but my own call for support!)

That’s more than enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There is a new video at Patron’s Instagram, which sort of embeds here.

 

View this post on Instagram

 

A post shared by Патрон 🧨 (@patron_dsns)

So just to be safe, here’s a screen shot:

Screen shot of Patron the Ukrainian Sapper dog in his work harness sitting on a Patron box. Patron boxes are brown and have Patron written on them in Ukrainian Cyrillic. Patron is a brown and white short hair Jack Russell terrier. He is surrounded by other Patron boxes, some open. Each box is a charitable gift box for Ukrainian children who have either been wounded during the war and/or are orphans. They are available for purchase on Patron's shop site.

And here’s the machine translation of the caption:

We have delivered more than 90 gifts to children in @ohmatdyt and to orphans and children temporarily without parental care.
Your gifts have brought joy to the kids, so thank you very much for visiting patronshop.com.ua and choosing the “give a child” option 🥰
And all profits go to help sappers and animals: that’s good x2.
We deliver the gifts every 2-3 months, so if you would like to join us, I leave a link in the story.
You can choose anything on my website, even stickers. They will go into the box along with other gifts. Or you can buy a ready-made box, it’s up to you ❤️
And I would also like to thank @lukas.from.ukraine who always send huge boxes of Patron bars and candies for the kids. Hundreds and hundreds of kilograms and just like that. Just to make it nice and tasty for the kids. You are wonderful!

Thank you all very much, lick 👅

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

26Comments

  1. 1.

    YY_Sima Qian

    What is Putin giving Iran & NK in return for munitions, I would suspect tech for intermediate range & intercontinental ballistic missiles, long range cruise missiles, high supersonic (Mach 3+) cruise missiles, hypersonic (non-ballistic) vehicles, submarine tech, submarine launch tech, satellite tech, civilian nuclear tech, perhaps even clandestine nuclear weapons tech, etc.

    In fact, the impressive progress NK has made in its ballistic missile program over the past decade is suspected due largely to clandestine Russian assistance.

  2. 2.

    Adam L Silverman

    @YY_Sima Qian: My guess is cheap petroleum and natural gas for the DPRK. For Iran, it is providing support to Assad, allowing Iran to maintain their Shi’a near abroad.

  3. 3.

    Adam L Silverman

    I racked out early last night and am getting ready to again tonight. But I wanted to make sure that Gin & Tonic knows that I saw his comment and that I know I speak for everyone here when I say we’re all keeping good thoughts for his friend’s safe return. As well as those Ukrainians who don’t have friends and/or relatives that comment here.

  6. 6.

    Yutsano

    @YY_Sima Qian: It would not shock me if Russia was also giving Iran some nuclear advice. I honestly think the only reason Iran would want a bomb is because Israel has them. Otherwise there wouldn’t be much point to them. Iran doesn’t have ICBM technology unless Russia helps them with that. And using something like that in Iraq would hurt their ecology as well. The real problem is I don’t see a good escape from all this.

  9. 9.

    Alison Rose

    I saw a post earlier at a glance that just said something like “Looks like something just went kaboom in Sevastopol” and for half a second I got a little freaked because the neighboring city to mine is called Sebastopol.

    Yesterday, Zelenskyy handed out apartment certificates to some troops* and also families of some killed in action. I always appreciate how he makes sure to shake hands with the children, too, and say a few kind words to them. Humanity on display.

    (*I’m not sure what the proper term would be to use for them, troops or soldiers or something else. I know in the US, Marines are called Marines and many of them would be very unhappy if you call them soldiers, because soldier is for people in the Army, and then sailor is for people in the Navy, and I believe it’s airman (or woman) in the Air Force. But for Ukrainian forces, when we might be talking about more than one sector of their military, I’m not sure of the best term. I suppose just “heroes” like Zelenskyy usually uses?)

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  13. 13.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    Ukraine is rebuilding permanent homes as fast as they can, through United 24 with EU and other groups aids. It’s regional and on a first come/needs system.

  15. 15.

    HumboldtBlue

    Adam I came across some video the other day that purported to show dead Russian solders who happened to be women and the video claimed Russia was now using women’s prisons as a source for manpower, is this a thing or was I watching some more cyberspace generated bullshit?

  16. 16.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    so the Apartment’s Certificates, go out to the earliest people in a region that lost their homes due to the Orc’s depredations.  Socialism at it’s best.

    So, a “presentation” to people serving in the Ukrainian Armed forces, is good PR, but,…………

    Thousands of civilians have gotten Certificates.

    As fast a ruZZia is breaking stuff, Ukraine is trying to fix stuff.

    Slava texted me this week. He’s finished fixing the bombed out home he bought in Odessa. 5 bedrooms, energy efficient, (free led’s from a U24 program), well insulated, 3 full bathrooms, a bomb shelter in the basement, a large communal kitchen, hardened walls and roof, blast proof windows, back up power and a water cistern, and the garage in the back, is now two 1 bedroom apartments, with a small patio garden between.

    He’s gone back to the line, and the house and apartments now house 27 refugee’s. He’s got the smaller bedroom in the front, when he returns and rent for the refugee’s is basically to feed him when he is on leave.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    Meanwhile, … AlJazeera.com:

    Iraq’s government has accused the United States-led international coalition forces of carrying out a drone strike targeting an Iran-aligned paramilitary group in the capital, Baghdad, that killed and wounded several people.

    The strike on Thursday targeted the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), also known as Hashd al-Shaabi. Hajj Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi (Abu Taqwa), a senior PMF commander, was among those killed.

    The total number of casualties was not immediately clear, but the Reuters news agency reported that four PMF members were killed and six wounded.

    “The Iraqi armed forces hold the forces of the international coalition responsible for this attack,” Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office said in a statement, calling it a “dangerous escalation and aggression”.

    […]

    Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, a group of Iranian-backed armed organisations – calling itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq – has carried out more than 100 attacks on bases housing US troops in Iraq and Syria.

    The group has said the attacks are in retaliation for Washington’s support of Israel in the war against Hamas that has killed more than 22,000 people in Gaza, and that they aim to push US forces out of Iraq.

    Last month, the US carried out retaliatory air raids in Iraq after a drone attack by Iran-aligned fighters left three wounded, including one US service member in critical condition.

    (Emphasis added.)

    It’s a great time to be 15 days from a CR running out, huh.

    :-/

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  18. 18.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Yutsano: 

    @YY_Sima Qian: It would not shock me if Russia was also giving Iran some nuclear advice.

    I would be shocked if this were true. Russia and Iran share a border, and the idea of Russia acquiescing to the birth of a new nuclear power on its border sounds like the kind of own-goal amounting to stark daylight strategic madness.

    I can see other plausible economic, political, and military accomodations in play. Nuclear technology transfer strikes me as totally, self-defeatingly absurd. The Russian government is certainly evil, but I very much doubt that it is this stupid.

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Yutsano: NK can help Iran w/ ICBMs, or something close to it. However, Iran is focused on Israel, for that IRBMs would suffice. Warhead miniaturization to fit onto IRBMs would be a challenge, but it appears that NK has managed, as well.

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Purported video footage of Russian strikes against Ukrainian Forward Operating Bases, suspected to be NK KN-23 SRBMs. Photos & videos in the linked Twitter thread. I am not familiar w/ the specific “OSINT” Twitterer, so cannot evaluate its credibility.

    In the recent days Ukraine has experienced Strikes on FOBs, by what I suspect to be North Korean KN-23 Ballistic Missiles. More below. (1) FOB Containing alot of Trucks(Ural, Ural Tankers etc). The fact that the houses caught fire as well indicates a resupply base in them.

    I suppose Russia got the base Hwasong-11Ga / 11A Version. These have a Range of 240-690Km Confirmed Range, with a payload of 500Kg. It is INS and Satellite Guided What I wonder is if Russia received the corresponding 8×8 TELs for it too.

    I am not sure if the Russian 9K720 Iskander (SS-26), or to be exact Russian 9P78-1 8×8 TEL on MZKT Chassis can carry them. If someone has information on that please be sure to drop it below. Appreciated:)

    2) More Strikes on Ukrainian FOBs (claimed as the “MLRS who brutally shelled Belgorod” which I heavily doubt and neither see proof for. Reminds me of “HIMARs in Building lol). Likely performed by KN-23 Launches as well.

    While SRBMs have lower reentry speeds than MRBMs & IRBMs, but to my armchair eyeballs the impact speeds seem to better align w/ that of long range multiple launched rockets such as the Smerch. OTOH, the size of the explosions suggest much larger warheads than 300 mm rockets.

    Interesting take on the footage from John Helin:

    This is very interesting. Video material from this kind of ballistic missile strikes on FOBs has been relatively limited lately. This indicates that Russia has received enough missiles to supplement both operational and strategic strike capability.

    It looks like the Ukrainian depot here was not prepared for this kind of threat. Everything is close together and in the open. Reminds me of the footage of the early HIMARS strikes. This would also indicate that the UA rear has been (relatively) safe as of late.

    Of course, we can’t draw instant conclusions from one video. Could be complacency from this depot, could be a lucky Russian drone that has made it through, for once. On the other hand, we’ve seen that the Russian kill-chain is quite slow, so probably not a target of opportunity.

    A semi-snarky comment from Jeffrey Lewis:

    Again, if North Korean can sell KN-23 SRBMs to Russia, South Korea can sell Hyunmoo-series SRBMs to Ukraine.

    Of course, it is one thing for SK to ship 155 mm artillery shells via 3rd parties, that are more easily blended in among all of the 155 mm shells from other countries, it is quite another to supply SRBMs when the only US has supplied ATACMs, & small number at that.

  23. 23.

    daveNYC

    @Adam L Silverman: I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia is also giving both countries weapon technology transfers.  It’s a win-win since it’s ‘cheap’ relative to sending them hard currency or gold, and improving NK and Iranian weapon production provides immediate benefits to Russia’s war effort.  Any fallout from doing so is a tomorrow and/or someone else’s problem as far as Putin cares.

  24. 24.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Another investigation by +972 Mag into the IDF’s poor treatment of Gazan detainees, without distinguishing between civilians and Hamas/PIJ militants.

    Inside Israel’s torture camp for Gaza detainees
    Palestinians arrested in the northern Gaza Strip describe how Israeli soldiers systematically abused civilians and combatants alike, from severe deprivation to brutal physical violence.
    By Yuval Abraham January 5, 2024

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Interesting analysis from Martin Indyk on Israeli proposals for the “day after” endgame, as elaborated by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

    Last night Israeli defense minister Gallant laid out to the security cabinet the IDF’s plan for the “day after” in Gaza. It has four components: Israeli responsibility for overall security (including freedom to operate in Gaza); cooperation with Egypt to control and seal the Egypt/Gaza border; a U.S.-led international force to maintain order; and a civilian administrative structure based on local employees. Notably, Gallant declared there will be no Israeli civilian presence in Gaza.

    My take on Gallant’s concept (spoiler alert – bold prediction in 6/6): 1/6 Gallant’s plan is not yet fully articulated or embraced by Netanyahu, let alone his cabinet. But it is most likely to prevail because it represents the IDF’s needs.

    2/6 There is inherent tension in Israel taking overall security responsibility for itself and handing over security responsibility to a U.S.-led multinational police force which will not be willing to be sub-contractors to the IDF. As of now, there is no such force being constituted and no willingness of any Arab state to participate.

    3/6 Working with Egypt to prevent smuggling of arms into Gaza from Sinai is a noble objective but it didn’t work before and is unlikely to work now because there’s too much money to be made in smuggling.

    4/6 By looking to local administrators and bureaucrats to run civil affairs in Gaza, Gallant has knowingly opened the way to a return of the Palestinian Authority. Many of those workers are already on the PA payroll; others worked for Hamas but will need a new paymaster; Arab states will not contribute the money for salaries unless it is handled by the PA.

    5/6 Slowly but surely, Netanyahu’s bluster and grandiosity is giving way to the practical needs of a day after policy which Israel cannot meet without the support and cooperation of the United States and the international community.

    6/6 Notwithstanding his opposition to the PA, I believe the next thing Netanyahu will do is find a way to hand over to Blinken the $75m of PA money that Smotrich is withholding, thereby helping to prevent the financial collapse of the PA. Watch for a package deal in which Abu Mazen appoints a new technocratic PM and prisoner payments are reformed, paving the way for Biden’s “Revitalized PA” to start picking up the pieces in Gaza.

    “Inherent tension” is massively underselling the contradiction of the IDF maintaining freedom to operate in Gaza & being responsible for overall security, & having a US-led multinational police force maintaining order. What Arab country would want their army/police units become the IDF’s constabulary in Gaza? What US military commander would want US troops to serve as the IDF’s gendarmes? How would American civilian cops fare in Gaza?

    The only way this could possibly work is if a multinational force (US-led or not) takes overall security responsibility over Gazas, transitioning to a local police force that is charged w/ maintaining order, & the IDF staying out of Gaza. Even if there are sporadic rocket/mortars fired from Gaza into Israel, or terror attacks against Israel organized by cells in Gaza, the multinational force & the local police force has to have the responsibility to suppress & root out the militants, rather than the IDF meting out its usual collective punishment w/ overwhelming force.

    & how would local administrators & bureaucrats be allowed to run civil affairs in Gaza? Are they essentially Israel’s prison managers that will try to keep Gaza treading water as the world’s largest open air prison/refugee camp, or would they actually be able to plan & realize long term economic & societal development?

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