We have confirmation: the Ukrainian Air Force shot down the Russian A-50 and IL-22 over the Sea of Azov yesterday!
Who did this? 🤫 pic.twitter.com/Zo0JlcQw04
— Ukrainian Air Force (@KpsZSU) January 15, 2024
The Ukrainian Air Forces destroyed the enemy A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft, worth $330 million, and the Il-22 enemy air control center.
Great job, warriors!
Ukraine will win! pic.twitter.com/kzJYhQwJ4U— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 15, 2024
Woohoo! It's official – Ukrainian air defense took down A-50 AWACS and Il-22 airborne command post over the Sea of Azov! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/72dkSk5jUy
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 15, 2024
Before and after on the Il-22:
/9. Another view on the Russian Il-22M RF-95678 pic.twitter.com/7jWcISFex5
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 15, 2024
I’m sure that’ll buff right out!
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed a Russian Beriev A-50 spy aircraft and an Ilyushin Il-22 airborne control center, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi reported on Jan. 15.
The announcement comes a day after Ukrainian media outlets reported on the downing of a Russian A-50 plane over the Azov Sea, citing an unnamed source in the Ukrainian military.
“I thank the Air Force for a perfectly planned and executed operation in the Pryazovia region,” Zaluzhnyi said.
He didn’t specify other details, but according to media reports, the A-50 plane was shot down after the taking off in the Kyrylivka area of Zaporizhzhia Oblast at 9:10 p.m. local time.
Russia’s A-50 aircraft provides several critical functions for the ongoing war in Ukraine, such as detecting air defense systems, guided missiles, and coordinating targets for Russian fighter jets. Russia only possesses nine of these planes.
Ukraine has destroyed at least seven Russian aircraft since December, a landmark military achievement for the country and a significant blow to Russia. The sharp uptick in downing planes in recent weeks emerges as a bright spot for Ukraine amid a lack of progress on the battlefield.
The A-50 alone reportedly costs $330 million, and although estimates vary, Western sources say that Russia has fewer than 10 in its fleet. Belarusian partisans attacked another A-50 aircraft at an airbase near Minsk in February 2023, causing an unknown amount of damage.
Russia’s supply of the Il-22 plane is not extensive either. During the short-lived rebellion of the late Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary group in June 2023, the mutineers reportedly shot down an Il-22 and six Russian military helicopters. At the time, the U.K. Defense Ministry said that Russia only had 12 such aircraft.
Both the A-50 and Il-22 are important Russian assets in the air. The A-50 provides several critical functions for the ongoing war in Ukraine, such as detecting air defense systems, guided missiles, and coordinating targets for Russian fighter jets.
It is unclear how the planes were brought down, but Ukraine received several pieces of advanced air defense systems in 2023, including Patriots from the U.S., which some analysts have reportedly alleged could have been responsible.
President Zelenskyy was in Switzerland today. As of now – 8:50 PM EST – there has not been a daily address, nor a press conference regarding the trip posted.
Rob Lee has a long post regarding Russia’s munitions manufacturing. First tweet from the thread, the remainder from the Thread Reader App.
From HUR's Vadym Skibitsky:
-Russia produced ~2 million 122mm/152mm artillery rounds in 2023 and received 1 million 122mm/152mm rounds from North Korea
-Russia produces ~115-130 "strategic" (>350km range) missiles per month
-~330-350 Shahed drones can be produced per month pic.twitter.com/SxTx0k4pvx— Rob Lee (@RALee85) January 15, 2024
He notes that actual production of Shaheds and missiles each month varies due to parts.
-Russia can produce 100-115 operational-tactical class of missiles (e.g. Kh-31, Kh-59) per month
-He says ~4% of Shahed drones fail to launch or explode immediately
2/
Compared to last year, Russia’s missile campaign this winter hasn’t focused on energy infrastructure, but instead primarily on other infrastructure like Ukraine’s defense industry and C2. He says Russia has started to use Shahed drones against military targets at the front. 3/
He says ~1,000-1,100 Russians join the military every day, and they are used to replace losses and form reserve regiments. He doesn’t specify what percentage of them come from mobilization or volunteers, but he says the salary is the key motivation for those volunteering. 4/
He says former members of Wagner have signed contracts with different PMCs under the command of the Russian MoD or Rosgvardia in Ukraine or in Africa and the Middle East. He also says Iran hopes to receive Su-34 bombers from Russia. 5/
He says almost 80% of the components Russia receives, especially for electronics, comes from China and that most of these aren’t even produced in China. As a result, he says it isn’t that much of a problem for Russia to find the necessary components. 6/
If you’d like to watch it, here’s the video of the interview with Skibitskyi. I’ve got the closed captioning on and set for English:
Here’s more from the interview with Skibitskyi from RBC-Ukraine:
Vadym Skibitskyi, a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, commented on the goals of Russia’s current shelling, how many missiles and Shaheds, the aggressor produces, what military assistance it receives from other countries, and what tasks does Moscow set for itself on the front in 2024.
Since December, Russia has started launching massive missile strikes on Ukraine. However, its current targets are not energy facilities, as last year. Bypassing sanctions and assistance from third countries allow Moscow to continue producing long-range missiles, increasing the production of strike drones like Shaheds, and overall continuing an aggressive terrorist war.
About the current goals of Kremlin missile attacks and tasks on the front in 2024, whether Putin is preparing for a new wave of mobilization in Russia, how Russia helps North Korea, and why Iran is interested in supporting Moscow shared Vadym Skibitskyi, Major General of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
About the goals of Russia’s missile and drone strikes
Currently, the main efforts of the Russian Federation are focused on destroying our military facilities, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate. This includes objects of the defense-industrial complex, headquarters, control systems, and specific units on the front line. However, Moscow often fails to achieve its goals because its missile weaponry is not entirely accurate. Unfortunately, this often results in civilian casualties, as explained by Skibitskyi.
In intelligence, it is warned that the threat of attacks on energy facilities remains. According to Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), the Russians analyzed strikes on our energy facilities in 2022-2023 and continue to conduct satellite imagery of these objects regularly. They identified the most critical objects that could be affected by missile weaponry and drones.
About the state of the Russian military-industrial complex
In the summer of 2022, Moscow adopted a series of laws and government resolutions, effectively transferring defense-industrial enterprises to a wartime mode. The number of working days per week increased, and some enterprises even operate in three shifts. However, Moscow could not significantly increase the production of weapons and military equipment due to outdated equipment, a shortage of skilled workers capable of performing such high-tech work, and a shortage of components. According to military intelligence, everything produced by Russia today is immediately sent to the front and used against Ukraine.
“The confirmation of the fact that they lack their ammunition is their purchase of ammunition from Iran and North Korea and the export of almost all ammunition from Belarusian depots. If we talk, for example, about artillery ammunition of 122 and 152 calibers, Russian enterprises produced about 2 million such ammunition in 2023. But this does not cover all the needs of the armed formations of the Russian Federation,” said the Defense Intelligence representative.
Regarding Russia’s missile production
Currently, Russia can produce about 115-130 strategic missiles with a range of over 350 kilometers. However, these production volumes may vary depending on the month. Sometimes, Moscow faces shortages of component deliveries, many foreign-made.
“Secondly, they are now trying to maintain a certain strategic reserve. As a rule, this is about 30% of what they have in stock. Moreover, we understand that everything produced is immediately delivered to the battlefield. Speaking of released cruise missiles, products of the III, and IV quarter of production were recorded during attacks,” clarified Skibitskyi.
If we talk about missiles of the operational-tactical class with a shorter range – such as Kh-31, Kh-35, Kh-29, and Kh-59 – they are mainly produced from Russian components. The aggressor can produce approximately 100-115 such missiles.
How many Shaheds Russia produces
Skibitskyi noted that in December, Moscow released a record number of UAVs of the Shahed type in Ukraine – about 770-780 units.
“We are only talking about those that we recorded. Because there is still a certain percentage – approximately 4% – of those that did not reach, did not start, or exploded immediately after launch. We have confirmed data from the Russian side that such cases occur,” added the Major General of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense.
Previously, Moscow received these drones under a contract with Tehran. However, according to military intelligence, Russia has now established its production, which is already operational, particularly in Yelabuga, Tatarstan. There are at least two production lines deployed there. However, the majority of components for these Shaheds are sourced from other countries.
“The goal of Moscow is to achieve a complete, closed cycle of production of such UAVs on Russian territory by 2026. I’m not sure they can replace or find a Russian analog, such as electronic components – microchips, chips, etc. But the Russian Federation currently manufactures starters, casings, warheads, engines, and other elements of the navigation system,” explained Skibitskyi.
According to the agency’s estimate, Russians can produce 330-350 units of these UAVs per month. Such indicators, for example, were demonstrated by the aggressor in December. However, they also vary depending on the availability of components, especially engines.
“But, as in the case of missiles, all Shaheds or so-called Geran-2, which are produced, immediately go into combat use. And that’s why we see a different number of UAVs being used. December showed that even if the enemy had some reserves, they are now depleted, and all these UAVs that are launched come off the conveyor belt,” clarified the Defense Intelligence representative.
Which countries help Russia with weapons
In intelligence, it is stated that Russia received approximately one million artillery ammunition of 122 mm and 152 mm caliber from North Korea. The most active ammunition deliveries from North Korea were made in September, October, and November. At the same time, DIU is verifying information regarding the transfer of ballistic missiles from Pyongyang to Moscow.
Another country that helps Russia is Iran. Tehran’s assistance involves the supply of components for strike drones and ammunition. According to Skibitskyi, Iran is interested in military-technical cooperation with Russia because it wants to receive modern aviation, such as the Su-34, training aircraft, and radar stations. Negotiations between them are ongoing.
As for China, almost 80% of components for military equipment, including electronics, reach Russia through fictitious firms created in this country. Moreover, they are not even of Chinese origin in most cases but come from other countries worldwide.
“Russia has tried and is trying to obtain ammunition from China. It also tries to get shells from other countries where Soviet weapons remain, including from Central Asian countries,” said the Major General.
About the state and effectiveness of Russian air defense
During the war, the Russian Federation significantly strengthened its air defense on many fronts, including the occupied Crimea, particularly the area around the Kerch Strait Bridge, where a powerful air defense system was deployed. This includes the Moscow direction within the territory of the Russian Federation and other regions. On these specified fronts, reinforcement was achieved, and a layered air defense system was created. However, this was done by redistributing forces and resources from other regions of Russia, such as the Far East, the Northern region of the Russian Federation, etc.
“How effective is it? It is not always as the aggressor claims. Moreover, everything depends on how successfully we plan our operations, including using drones and other weapons. We know to what extent and in which regions the reinforcement of air defense has occurred and where new systems are deployed. The most powerful system they have in service is the S-400, but even it is not flawless. There are cases where their equipment fails. The well-known Pantsir also misses our aircraft, which, as a result, reach their targets,” explained Skibitskyi.
What will happen with the war in 2024
One of the strategic goals that Moscow retains for this year is to reach the administrative borders of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, says Skibitskyi. Another objective for the Russians, according to the documents available to the DIU, is the maintenance of the currently occupied territories: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and part of the Kharkiv region.
“Another priority they have set for themselves is the destruction of our air defense system, our aviation, our defense-industrial complex objects, to prevent the growth of our production and the strengthening of the Armed Forces’ capabilities. These are the tasks that the Russian Federation sets for itself this year,” the Major General explained.
He added that the current conditions for negotiations that Russia wants to push Ukraine into are unacceptable to us. Moreover, this rhetoric about readiness for talks is a trap. The aggressor wants to use this time to restore its potential, build up forces, and create strategic reserves to continue aggression, as in 2014.
“Such rhetoric from Moscow is mostly aimed at Western and Global South countries – suggesting they are allegedly willing to stop and start a negotiation process. But what does Russia say about our occupied territories? Our strategic goal is clear – we must liberate all our occupied territories,” explained Skibitskyi.
DIU emphasizes that waging a war against the Russian Federation without the assistance of Western allies is almost impossible. However, the department is confident that this assistance will continue in 2024. Skibitskyi explains that the West understands that Ukraine is currently restraining the “Russian military machine” from preparing for aggression against other countries.
“And they understand that we are genuinely restraining Russia now. It failed to achieve the goals it set for itself. And we have significantly reduced the potential of the Russian Federation. According to our estimates, restoring the potential of the RF Ground Forces, which existed before the start of large-scale aggression, will take them five to ten years. To restore the arsenal of precision weapons, it also takes three to five years,” explained Skibitskyi.
There is more at the link.
Avdiivka:
Avdivvka has been reduced to an empty wasteland. Once filled with life, it now resembles the true meaning of Russian imperialism. Despite the constant shelling, the few civilians who remain attempt to survive each day in the barren wasteland. Those who choose to stay are mainly… pic.twitter.com/tEwXq6xAlV
— COSSACKGUNDI (@cossackgundi) January 15, 2024
Avdivvka has been reduced to an empty wasteland. Once filled with life, it now resembles the true meaning of Russian imperialism. Despite the constant shelling, the few civilians who remain attempt to survive each day in the barren wasteland. Those who choose to stay are mainly the elderly and those with nothing else, hoping their homes survive the conflict. During my visit we coordinated with the White Angels, Ukrainian police with the primary purpose of evacuating civilians who need help. The city’s only remaining hospital carries on, trying to get by each day despite constant attacks, striving to provide for the civilians that come in.
/2.Bridge location (48.0710708, 37.6517868) pic.twitter.com/d1mGmIRYk5
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 15, 2024
Javelin strikes on Russian AFVs on the Avdiivka fronthttps://t.co/ZuoS1cRy2T pic.twitter.com/1vgpbabMv6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 15, 2024
Beautiful destruction of a Russian tank on the Avdiivka fronthttps://t.co/947zJ7Mq6M pic.twitter.com/BXlvXB9ghW
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 15, 2024
Kreminna front:
Russian T-72B3M mod.2022 spontaneously transforms into a fireball. Kreminna front. https://t.co/7t6lTgYoHQ pic.twitter.com/9wNFxiLKth
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 15, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:
@patron__dsns Усі імена вигадані, усі співпадіння випадкові!😅 То такі жарти :)) #песпатрон
Here’s the machine translation of the caption:
All names are fictitious, all coincidences are random! 😅 It’s a joke. :)) #песпатрон
Open thread!
Mike in NC
$330 million for one freakin’ airplane? I thought only we did that.
Another Scott
@Mike in NC: A 787 Dreamliner – a fancy bus – lists at about $240M according to Forbes. And that isn’t involved in things potentially related to national survival.
Military flying stuff is expensive. ;-)
Cheers,
Scott.
J. Arthur Crank
@Mike in NC: This one had the undercoating and the specialty rims. I bet the replacement cost will be a lot higher.
Adam L Silverman
I’m racking out. Catch everyone on the flip.
Also, AlaskaReader: You’re welcome!
Adam L Silverman
Everyone else is also most welcome too!
japa21
Thanks Adam. This line in the article above struck me:
Yes, it is a bright spot. But the country who is really displaying a lack of progress on the battlefield is Russia. Supposedly, they are trying a winter offensive which is going nowhere.
Yutsano
Heh. It’s nice to know Patron is allowed to be a Jack Russell Terrorist every now and again.
I’m not sure there’s anything that can be done about the fact that the PRC is giving dual purpose parts to Russia. No one has any real leverage to get them to stop, and they are going to act on their own interests as nations do. I don’t see that pipeline getting cut off unless the PRC suddenly can’t exchange its rubles anymore.
Alison Rose
Fuck yeah, Ukraine! (If G&T or dr luba are about, how would one say that in Ukrainian?) Continuing to prove that when they have what they need, they do what they need to do.
This video made me smile. Never forget your Tactical Cat!
Thank you as always, Adam.
Carlo Graziani
The interview with Skibitskyi is a treasure-trove of hard data. Thanks, Adam, this is extremely valuable.
These are monthly figures. “Maintaining a strategic reserve” means that they’d like the option to surge strikes, or hit targets-of-opportunity outside the scheduled plans, but the tyranny of logistics implies that whatever they do they are ultimately going to fire a maximum of 4 (130/30) “strategic missiles” per day on average, and roughly the same number of “shorter range” missiles.
I imagine that despite the damage these strikes do, the Ukrainians are very relieved by these numbers. They represent nothing like the order-of-magnitude advance in firing-rate capability that we discussed and worried about a few weeks ago—about 200/week, as I recall, which is a more than 6 times what seems to be the case.
Last July, I wrote up an analysis in a BJ comment suggesting that the Russian firing rate capability was about 5/day on average. They have apparently pushed that up to 8/day. That is certainly progress from the Russian perspective, but nothing like the qualitative leap that some feared based on the high-intenity salvoes that they have fired in the past few weeks.
Martin
@Carlo Graziani: 2 million rounds of artillery per year can’t be well received. We’re not remotely close to that. The US produces ⅛ that number, and that assumes we’re giving Ukraine all of it, when policy-wise, Ukraine has to assume they’ll get none.
Devore
Assuming the funding from the USA is turned back on. What about using some of the funding to hire mercenaries? Since Ukraine seems to be running low on manpower
I don’t think I’ve seen this discussed
YY_Sima Qian
The damage patterns on the Il-22M that survived is consistent with blast fragmentation from SAMs. Thus, a Patriot ambush, a brilliant operation that once again illustrates how the Ukrainian Armed Forces make the most w/ their still limited means, & consistently punishing Russian complacency & incompetence. Imagine what they could do w/ more reliable material support.
While Ukrainian AD has made the skies over the front lines & Ukrainian held territory very dangerous for Russian fighters & fighter-bombers, Russian strategic bombers, AWACs & other special mission aircraft’s have so far operated in very permissive environments. The Ukrainian Air Force has so far lacked the very long range SAMs (such as the S-400), & modern fighters w/ modern long range AAMs to contest air superiority over Russian held airspace. That permissive environment probably instilled a level of complacency in RuAF operations, leading to poor habits for Ukraine to take advantage. I would not be surprised if the Russian pilots were busy check for instrument malfunction when their radar warning receivers started to squeal, even as the missiles homed in on them.
Bill Arnold
Saw this a few days ago.
Identifying Russian Vulnerabilities and How to Leverage Them (DECEMBER 14, 2023, Center for a New American Security)
A bit boring, TBH. But their hearts are in the right place.
The Russian Federation is riddled with vulns. Some of them are very old. :-) (I don’t mean infosec vulns, though there are plenty of those, too.)
Carlo Graziani
@Martin: That is another seriously misunderstood and misused number, in my opinion.
The Russians “spray” their artillery shells over wide areas. This is what their field manuals instruct them to do, and what their equipment allows them to do. It is a perfectly reasonable approach to city-pulverization, which has been the principal use of the Russian artillery arm since the ’90s. And it works adequately for attacking static entrenchments. But it is entirely useless for hitting moving infantry, let alone for stopping mixed infantry-armor thrusts. We saw this several times last summer and fall, with footage of Ukrainian tanks brazenly taking up station in open fields to provide covering fire for advancing infantry, while Russian shells arrived late and off-target to meet the threat.
Western artillery comes out looking like “one-shot, one kill” by comparison. There is no WWII-style wiping out of map squares. Each target is ID’d and targeted, accurately, and usually destroyed.
What this all means is that there is an effective ratio, shells-per-kill, that vastly favors the Ukrainian side, probably at least by a factor of 4-5, but possibly by much more (these numbers are very hard to find).
As a consequence, the material advantage of Russian artillery, as counted up in artillery shell production rates, is certainly wildly exaggerated. It is likely that in terms of actual artillery kills, the two sides are not far from parity.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani: I think you are right. NK could help w/ the SRBMs, but the qty it can provide probably number in the dozens, rather than hundreds.
YY_Sima Qian
I am extremely impressed Ukrainian candor here. Every other country’s officials in their circumstance, speaking to MSM (especially domestic ones at a time when additional mobilization is needed), would be playing for propagandistic effect and highlighting the instances where Russia targeted civilians, or the collateral damage from the Russian strikes. Instead, they were frank w/ what they understood to be Russian objectives.
Targeting Ukrainian MIC is actually rational from the Russian perspective, & “legitimate” conduct in war, in so far as anything carried out in this illegitimate war of aggression can be. I do wonder how much impact the Russian campaign is having. Even its surge in the last few of weeks is only significant relative to the very low prior baseline, not relatively to the size of Ukraine & its industry, & strength of its AD. Compare, for example, how many SRBMs Iran launched at U.S. bases in Iraq in retaliation to the assassination of Suleimani, or what the PLA could launch against Taiwan & US bases in Japan & the West Pacific in the opening days of a war over Taiwan.
strange visitor (from another planet)
is it possible that they’ve sortied f-16’s on the DL?
Jay
@strange visitor (from another planet):
Nope.
YY_Sima Qian
@Carlo Graziani:
I agree with the thrust of this analysis, but: we have seen reports of Ukrainian units limited to firing a few rounds a day in a high intensity sector, so there are places where the Ukrainian forces are starved of artillery; Ukrainian stockpile of shells for western artillery will only deplete further; parity is insufficient for Ukraine to go on the offensive & retake occupied territories, the Russian way of employing artillery still give it massive advantages when blasting fixed Ukrainian defenses. It’s just that the Russians suck too much in combined arms maneuvers to take full advantage. Plus, the ubiquity of FPV suicide drones is an equalizer on the current battlefield, for both sides. They are even more accurate, flexible & responsive than precision guided artillery shells, & far more readily available.
Jay
@Devore:
Merc’s and PMC’s have a shitty performance rep. They cause more problems than they solve.
Ukraine has the “Internationals”, many of whom turned out to be jokes in the early days of the war, but have since, sorted themselves out.
Parfigliano
@Carlo Graziani: Plus alot of russian artillery shells are from NK. Wonder how many of those even properly function?
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
@Parfigliano:
Glasnost Gone had a vid a couple of days ago of a ruZZian mortar team, firing NORK mortar rounds. 8 no fires for 8 tries.
*luckily, for the ruZZian crew, the warhead doesn’t arm, if the shell does not launch.
Another Scott
@Jay:
Gomer Pyle – One of our shells is missing
Cheers,
Scott.
Subsole
@Jay: Not surprised to hear that. Machiavelli had their number hundreds of years ago.
Chris
@Devore:
“Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious, and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy.”
Chris
@Subsole:
Damn it! Beat me by three minutes.
Subsole
@YY_Sima Qian:
I suspect the shift in focus is also tied in with the certain knowledge that their odious little toadies in the GOP will keep Lend Lease 2.0 firmly logjammed.
If you know the replacements aren’t coming, it makes sense to focus on knocking off big ticket items that your enemy depends on their allies for.