Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The willow is too close to the house.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

My years-long effort to drive family and friends away has really paid off this year.

“And when the Committee says to “report your income,” that could mean anything!

Fight for a just cause, love your fellow man, live a good life.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

Ah, the different things are different argument.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

There’s always a light at the end of the frog.

Glad to see john eastman going through some things.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

It’s a doggy dog world.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Putin dreamed of ending NATO, and now it’s Finnish-ed.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Trump makes a mockery of the legal system and cowardly judges just sit back and let him.

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 495: On the Eve of US Independence Day 2023 Ukraine Continues to Fight for That Which Most Americans Take for Granted

War for Ukraine Day 495: On the Eve of US Independence Day 2023 Ukraine Continues to Fight for That Which Most Americans Take for Granted

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The Russians opened up on Ukrainian civilian targets again overnight.

As we in America prepare to celebrate our Independence Day, it is important to keep in mind that despite having their own official Independence Day, right now, every day for the past 495 days, and every day for the foreseeable future, the Ukrainians are fighting for their independence. They are fighting for the ideas and ideals that most Americans take for granted. The right to exist as a distinct state, society, and culture. To establish their own form of government and governance and to adjust and change it as they see fit. To live secure in their persons and property*, not just from their own government, but from Russian interference as well. So for those of us in the US, or Americans abroad, celebrating our Independence Day tomorrow, let’s remember to keep a thought for a much younger still developing democratic Ukraine that is demonstrating many of the ideals we will supposedly be celebrating tomorrow and do so under constant threat of and actual Russian attacks.

* For those playing along at home, this language is actually the right to privacy enshrined in the US constitution as the word privacy meant being being in a state of nakedness in the late 18th century.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We will do everything possible and impossible to make our air defense system the most powerful – address by the President of Ukraine

3 July 2023 – 20:49

I wish you health, dear Ukrainians!

First of all, I congratulate our anti-aircraft warriors – the warriors of the anti-aircraft missile troops of the Ukrainian Air Force, who are celebrating their holiday today.

I thank you for every target you have shot down, warriors! More than three thousand targets have been shot down: more than 180 aircraft, more than 130 helicopters, nearly 40 ballistic and more than a thousand cruise missiles, more than 1,600 drones of various types… All this means thousands and thousands of lives saved by you, hundreds of critical infrastructure facilities that you have protected.

During this war, eight anti-aircraft missile brigades received the honorary award “For Courage and Bravery”. More than 1,100 anti-aircraft warriors received state awards, and eight of them were awarded the highest title – Hero of Ukraine. They are Colonel Serhiy Yaremenko, Lieutenant Colonels Volodymyr Vesnin, Andriy Kruhlov, Serhiy Poberezhets, Artem Sharkov, Dmytro Shumakov, Major Yaroslav Melnyk and Senior Lieutenant Artem Slisarchuk, who was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, our state does not yet have enough high-quality air defense systems to protect our entire territory and shoot down all enemy targets. The enemy is taking advantage of this, as it did today, when it launched another terrorist attack on the city of Sumy with an Iranian drone, hitting residential buildings and the building of the Security Service of Ukraine. As a result of these strikes, there are wounded and killed… My condolences! We will do everything possible and impossible to make our air defense system the most powerful. Today, General Oleshchuk, the commander of the Air Force, reported to me on our actions to strengthen air defense. The goal is for the Ukrainian sky shield to be able to protect our entire territory from Russian terror, and in the future, to become the basis for the European sky shield. This is absolutely necessary and absolutely possible.

By the way, I spoke with Mr. Chancellor Scholz today. Germany has helped Ukraine with air defense in a very powerful way. The brilliant German IRIS-T systems have proved to be very effective in protecting our skies. We also have very effective American Patriots, which were given to us by Germany. Ukraine is grateful for them, as well as for the rest of the vital assistance!

In today’s conversation with Mr. Chancellor, we focused, of course, on further defense cooperation, as well as on strategic issues of protecting our Europe – a Europe that can only be peaceful if peace is guaranteed by full security certainty. Europe cannot have a deficit of security certainty that will provoke Russian tyranny and aggression. Russia will try to take a bite out of Europe only when it sees any kind of security uncertainty. When everything is certain and obvious, Russian tyranny does not dare to violate security.

It is obvious that Europe can be protected from any aggression only together with Ukraine and only together with Ukraine in NATO. That is why we must achieve security certainty about our future in the Alliance. Then Russia will have to refocus on its own statehood – to finally take care of itself, not some expansions.

We are preparing for the Summit very actively, and we expect our partners to be as determined as this historic moment requires.

And, of course, our active actions. The frontline.

The heroic 35th and 36th separate marine brigades – thank you, warriors! The 47th separate mechanized brigade “Magura” – thank you! The glorious 55th separate artillery brigade “Zaporizhzhia Sich” – thank you, warriors! The 128th separate brigade of the Territorial Defense Forces – thank you!

Today, it is worth mentioning Junior Lieutenant Oleksandr Pavlov, platoon commander of the 36th marine brigade. His confident and powerful actions, skillful command in combat bring good results to the state. Thank you!

The crew of the T-80 tank under the command of Junior Sergeant Andriy Marchuk – thank you for your accuracy and bravery! This is the 36th marine brigade.

And from the 35th brigade, I would like to mention the tank commander, Junior Sergeant Artem Obrazko, for his true Ukrainian courage and skill in liberating Makarivka. Thank you, Artem!

Senior Soldier Yevhen Piddubnyi, a sapper from the 47th mechanized brigade. He operates in a very hot area and performs his tasks very effectively. Thank you, Yevhen!

Captain Ivan Ohurtsov. Operating in the Avdiivka sector, our artillery fire groups under his command are very effective in destroying enemy positions and depots. Thank you, warrior!

Maryinka direction… The artillery division under the command of Lieutenant Colonel Pavlo Lukyanov does not give the occupiers a single minute of rest. Your combat results are really significant! Thank you!

I thank everyone who is now in combat, at combat posts and in positions! Thank you to everyone who helps!

And one more thing.

Today, the world once again saw how the Kremlin – unfortunately, at the hands of the current Georgian government – is killing Ukrainian citizen Mykhailo Saakashvili. Human life is the highest value, and we cannot allow Mykhailo to be simply killed. Ukraine has repeatedly called on the Georgian authorities to stop this demonstrative execution. Both we and our partners have offered various options to save Mykhailo. Today, I have instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to summon the Ambassador of Georgia to Ukraine, to express our protest and to offer him to leave Ukraine within the next 48 hours to hold consultations with his capital. Once again, I call on the Georgian authorities to transfer Ukrainian citizen Mykhailo Saakashvili to Ukraine for the necessary treatment and care. And I urge our partners to address this situation, not to ignore it and save this man. No government in Europe has the right to execute people, life is a basic European value.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is the full text of President Zelenskyy’s tweet:

Right now, Russia is killing Ukrainian citizen Mykhailo Saakashvili at the hands of the Georgian authorities. We have repeatedly called on the official Tbilisi to stop this abuse and agree on Saakashvili’s return to Ukraine. Our partners, in coordination with Ukraine, have also offered various rescue options. Today, I have instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon the Georgian Ambassador to Ukraine, to express our strong protest and to ask him to leave Ukraine within 48 hours to hold consultations with his capital. Once again, I call on the Georgian authorities to hand over Ukrainian citizen Mykhailo Saakashvili to Ukraine for the necessary treatment and care. And I urge our partners to address this situation and not ignore it and save this man. No government in Europe has the right to execute people, life is a basic European value.

The Georgian government is controlled by the pro-Russian and neo-Fascist Georgian Dream Party. So don’t hold your breath that anything positive is going to happen here.

Today is Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile troops day.

Here is the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

Today is Ukrainian Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops Day.
We salute the soldiers who keep our skies safe from russian drones, missiles, planes, and helicopters.
Millions of lives have been saved as a result of their efforts.
They are always on guard and prepared for the fight.
Glory to Ukraine’s air defenders!

Here is the full text of Minister of Defense Reznikov’s tweet:

Congratulations to our soldiers on Ukrainian Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops Day! When the terrorist state began their horrific missile attacks on our country, you were on guard and stood up for battle. When it was necessary to master modern Western SAMs as soon as possible, you did it perfectly. When it was necessary to shoot down 100% of enemy missiles, including Kinzhals, you made the impossible possible. Thank you for your service!

Bucha:

Kherson Axis:

Orikhiv Axis:

Here’s the full text of Pfarrer’s tweet:

ORIKHIV AXIS /1740 UTC 3 JUL/ UKR forces are pressing contact at Bilohiria and along the H-08 HWY toward Luhivske. On the T-04-08 HWY axis, Russian units were engaged and pushed back after an encounter west of Kopani. UKR forces are in contact at Robotyne and are reported to have made incremental progress south.

Bakhmut Axis:

Here’s the full text of Pfarrer’s tweet:

BAKHMUT AXIS /1315 UTC 3 JUL/ UKR maintains control of the pace of battle in the Bakhmut Area of Operations. RU attacks on the M-03 axis were defeated at Orikhovo-Vasylivka. RU attacks at Bohdanivka were broken up. UKR forces are have exploited a weekend breakthrough against Russian VDV units and are engaged on the high ground near Klischiivka.

Sumy:

Kramatorsk:

Here’s the full text of the MOD’s tweet:

Victoria Amelina, a Ukrainian writer and war crimes researcher, died in a hospital after being critically injured in a russian missile strike on Kramatorsk. On June 27, she was dining with a delegation of Colombian journalists and writers in the city’s popular pizza restaurant when the missile hit. Victoria was one of Ukraine’s most celebrated young writers. All Russian war criminals will be brought to justice. The evil must be defeated. With the world’s support we will make make this happen.

You may remember that I referenced Ms. Amelina’s literary festival in an update a few weeks back. The Financial Times has more details on her murder:

An acclaimed Ukrainian novelist and poet who began documenting Russian war crimes after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion has succumbed to injuries she sustained in a Russian missile attack on a crowded restaurant last week.

Victoria Amelina, 37, died on Saturday after suffering a severe head injury when a high-precision Russian Iskander missile struck Ria Pizza in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, trapping people under the building’s rubble.

With her passing over the weekend, the death toll from the attack rose to 13 people, including twin 14-year-old sisters, according to Ukrainian authorities. At least 60 other people were wounded in the attack.

“With our greatest pain, we inform you that Ukrainian writer Victoria Amelina passed away on July 1 in Mechnikov Hospital in Dnipro,” PEN Ukraine and the war crimes research group Truth Hounds said in a statement released on Sunday.

Amelina was the author of two novels, including the award-winning Dom’s Dream Kingdom, and a children’s book. In 2021, she received the Joseph Conrad-Korzeniowski literature prize. The same year, she founded the New York Literature Festival in the eastern Ukrainian town of New York, near Bakhmut.

She had been dining at Ria Pizza together with a delegation of Colombian writers and journalists when the missile struck.

“They clearly knew that they were shelling a place with many civilians inside,” PEN Ukraine said of Russian forces.

Ukraine’s domestic intelligence service, the SBU, said it had arrested a local man who allegedly helped co-ordinate the strike and sent video footage of the pizzeria to the Russian military.

Amelina was dining at the restaurant with journalist Catalina Gómez, the writer Héctor Abad Faciolince and Colombia’s former high commissioner for peace Sergio Jaramillo, who had come to Ukraine as part of a campaign to underscore Latin America’s solidarity with the country.

“I was sitting right next to Victoria. We had just finished a day in the field, talking to people about the Russian invasion. As the food was brought to us, I bent down to pick up a napkin and, at that moment, the missile struck,” Jaramillo told the Financial Times.

“Victoria, who had been sitting upright, was badly hit at the back of the neck,” he added. “But I was OK. Then the whole room fell to pieces and time stopped. I stayed with her and called an ambulance and paramedics.”

Rescuers took Amelina to a local hospital before she was transferred to a trauma ward in Dnipro, a larger city further west of the frontline.

“In the last days of Victoria’s life, her closest people and friends were with her,” the PEN Ukraine statement said.

Much more at the link!

RBC Ukraine is reporting on their Telegram channel that the Russians are massing/concentrating significant numbers of troops on the Eastern Front. Here is a machine translation of the details:

!?️How many Russian soldiers concentrated in eastern Ukraine: details were revealed in the Armed Forces

“There ( on the Lyman-Kupyan direction – ed.) assembled a fairly powerful group – more than 120 thousand enemy troops… Throughout our zone (responsibility – ed.) more than 180 thousand soldiers of Russia. In Bakhmutsky – somewhere around 50 thousand, “said the speaker of the Eastern Group of Armed Forces Sergei Cherevati.

Here’s a bit of an update on the post Prigozhin revolt stuff. Some of you have been asking if there were any signs of Wagner in Belarus. According to the pro-Russian reinvasion of Ukraine Telegram channel Grey Zone, the camps are being built.

Dmitri has the audio with English subtitles:

The Financial Times has more details:

Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin called on the Russian public to stand up for his Wagner paramilitaries on Monday as the group continued to recruit troops for the war in Ukraine, in apparent contradiction of the terms of a truce with the Kremlin.

Speaking on the Telegram messaging app for the second time since leading an aborted insurrection last month, Prigozhin said “we need your support more than ever”, as he thanked backers inside Russia.

Also on Monday Wagner was actively seeking recruits to train in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region, according to the group’s ads on Telegram.

The moves come in spite of an agreement, whose details were revealed by Russian president Vladimir Putin, by which Wagner fighters were supposed to choose between signing contracts with the Russian defence ministry, going home or following Prigozhin into exile in Belarus.

However, Prigozhin stopped short of criticising the Kremlin directly.

A Wagner recruiter contacted on the group’s hotline on Monday said various “job openings” were available, including in the “prestigious” storm unit fighting in “the zone of the special military operation” — a reference to the war in Ukraine. Training would last for three weeks in the village of Molkino in southern Russia before deployment, the recruiter said.

Those who want to join Wagner were told to delete all social media accounts because the recruitment process had “become more complicated”, the Wagner official said.

Asked what the next steps were, the recruiter suggested no disruption had occurred after the attempted insurrection: “Why do you believe the news? If something was not right, we would not be having this conversation right now.”

He added that a recruit would sign a contract with Wagner, not the Russian defence ministry. “We have nothing to do with them. Have you seen the statements of Evgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin]? We will not sign any contracts with them.”

Prigozhin was careful not to challenge the Kremlin explicitly in his voice message on Monday, while he defended his “march of justice” towards Moscow last month as an effort to fight traitors and “mobilise our society”. “Soon you will see our next victories at the front,” he added.

He continued to remain silent on his own whereabouts. President Alexander Lukashenko said last week that Prigozhin had flown to Belarus, following the deal the Belarus leader had brokered.

But the warlord’s plane has since flown several times from Belarus to Moscow and St Petersburg and back again, Flightradar24 data shows, raising questions over whether Prigozhin is sticking to the terms of the deal.

In a speech delivered to his generals last Tuesday, Lukashenko said Belarus had earmarked “an abandoned base” on which to station Wagner troops.

On Monday evening, a Telegram channel considered close to Wagner published several photos of the “Wagner base facility construction in Osipovichi”, a town about 100km south-east of Minsk, showing several rows of military tents with wooden bunks.

More at the link!

I think that’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

Little dusty in here.

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

33Comments

  1. 1.

    ETtheLibrarian

    Not sure if I was the leader Belarus that I would be all that comfortable with camps of Wagner soldiers ensconced in my country especially when their leader has a mission/score to settle. But hey, maybe all will go well.

  2. 2.

    Alison Rose

    I appreciate how often Zelenskyy reminds everyone that Ukraine is in essence a shield between the rest of Europe and russia. Not because they want to be, but because they have been forced to be, and because they still have not been fully supplied with what they’ve said they needed for nigh on a year and a half now. I mean, I don’t think putin is batshit enough to suddenly go “send the orcs to France now!” but with this asshole, you never know.

    I also very much appreciate your intro comments, Adam. I’m sure most folks here don’t need the reminder, but a whole lot of others do, like the ones who still act as though this is either a land dispute or that the aggression is coming from the other side because they’re starry-eyed over their daddy putin.

    Came across this post about places for a “one-day vacation” near Lviv. I’ve mentioned before that my mom’s maternal grandfather was from there, so it was lovely to see the beauty near his homeland. (Granted, it likely looked different when he was born in 1902, but even so.)

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  3. 3.

    dimmsdale

    My hat’s off to you for your intrepid and constant reporting, Adam. Thanks and my best wishes to you for a perfect July 4th holiday. Cheers!

  7. 7.

    BR

    Early in the war, Ukraine’s official account posted this, and it has stuck with me.

    freedom
    dignity
    respect
    human rights
    rule of law
    solidarity
    self-organization
    social responsibility
    equality
    freedom of speech
    peaceful protest
    transparency
    accountability
    religious freedom
    multiculturalism
    international law

    *shortlist of what we stand for

    #StandWithUkraine

    These were universal values in the West as of 20 years ago. Now I’d be surprised if even a third are universal.

  9. 9.

    Chris

    Something that occurred to me sometime last year when reading one or the other Russian rant about how Ukrainians aren’t really an independent people historically but are just confused Russians is that at the end of the day, it wouldn’t even matter if that were true. We could grant for the sake of argument everything Putin says about Ukraine being just a historic province of Russia, and that still wouldn’t change the fact that, if that province decided that it no longer wanted to be part of the shit show that is Mother Russia and wanted to be left alone to make a go of democracy and functional government on its own, that would not in any way make them less worth supporting.

    After all, the American colonials were “historically” Britons. Until they decided they didn’t want to be. Leaving your ethnic brethren behind because you think they’re running things like shit is a valid decision.

  10. 10.

    Chetan Murthy

    @Chris: And one can go further.  It was perfectly fine with the USSR (and Putin) that East Germany was a separate state from West Germany.  The idea that Germans in the two Germanys were different peoples …. well, that’s ridiculously laughable.  So as with everything, Russians hold positions that support their agenda.  It’s got nothing to do with actual *truth*.

  11. 11.

    catfishncod

    Arguably, this is Ukraine’s version of the War of 1812. In our war of independence, there were still a lot of sympathizers to the “mother country”, and relatively little damage to infrastructure (since the Tories intended to hold the colonies even more tightly if they won).

    No such notions were out and about in 1812. We were recipients of alll the scorn for breaking up “the empire”, at least the one in Parliament’s collective head. Mayhem was much more the order of the day.

    Not a perfect parallel, but it serves. We proved that our independence wasn’t just a fluke; we could hold our own. (Insert numerous historical caveats here.) The English c. 1790 could still entertain dreams of reconquering the United States.  By 1815, no one with sense still talked like that. And that’s the endgame Ukraine is aiming for — to be prickly enough that Russia no longer *wants* to try re-conquest.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    Related to today’s Shahed salvo, but really kind of an aside:

    Yesterday Sebastian posted a link to a very valuable website that keeps statistics on materiel and personnel wastage in this war. I wrote up an analysis of UAV and missile strikes after the thread was long dead. I won’t repost it here, as you can follow the link if you want to see some details. I’ll just repost the bottom line of what I believe the data is telling us.

    On UAVs, there may be evidence that Russia fires them off at a rate roughly equal to the rate that they procure them from Iran, about 13/day. Today’s strike numbered 17 Shaheds, a bit higher, but the number needs to be averaged over a moving window of about a week to correct for intermittency of strikes. If the number remains in this range it will be evidence of the supply constraint on these weapons.

    Missiles come with a more interesting story. Between January 1 2023 and the end of March 2023, the Russians were firing very intermittent and very large salvoes of missiles i.e 30-60 missiles per salvo, spaced 1-2 weeks apart, averaging about 2.4 missiles per day. Then there was a 5-week pause, after which the missile bombardment resumed, but with more frequent, smaller salvoes. Interestingly, the daily average has roughly doubled, to 4.9 per day.

    The inference that I draw from this data is that during the winter, Russia was experiencing stockpile starvation of offensive missiles, and was literally emptying its inventory, then waiting 1-2 weeks to acqire enough weapons for another large salvo. Since May, however, Russian production capacity has roughly doubled, but they have been firing weapons at a lower, less intermittent, more sustainable rate, possibly as part of the strategy of keeping UA air defenses tied up well behind the front lines—as in they know that smaller salvoes are more likely to be annihilated by A/D than large ones, but they don’t really care so long as their front-line aviation is protected. And they certainly don’t care what they hit with the missiles that do get through.

    It’s amoral, but effective, which is the strategy space that Russia basically operates in (when they succeed in accomplishing “effective”, that is).

  14. 14.

    Sebastian

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Thank you for doing the work, Carlo!

    Did you see the news about new serial numbers on Shaheds, suggesting that Russia now manufactures them in country?

  15. 15.

    dirge

    @Chetan Murthy: So as with everything, Russians hold positions that support their agenda.

    This is the thing. The dividing line between us and them.

    I’m generally pretty wary of manichaean thinking, but there really is a pretty strong duality between our post-enlightenment consensus, where we develop agendas supported by evidence, and their authoritarian cults, where they start with the agenda then find or manufacture evidence.  It’s such a fundamentally different approach to the world, at the epistemological level, that it’s nearly impossible to comprehend other side.

    Once you’ve seen it, you’ll start seeing it everywhere, and it explains so very much.

  16. 16.

    Carlo Graziani

    @dirge: In fairness: Reason is the process of adjusting belief in light of evidence. Unreason is adjusting evidence to conform to prior belief. If we look around, it is necessary to admit that there is a great deal of unreason even in the West—in the US, there are times wnen our politics seem dominated by it, and I’m sure I need not detain anyone here with examples.

    But yes, Russia is actually governed by unreason, and Russian governance and culture appear to heavily disincentivize reason as a process for ordering ideas and policies. It’s part and parcel their peculiar claim to national manifest destiny.

  17. 17.

    way2blue

    As the upcoming NATO summit rapidly approaches—is there a tally of which member countries support Ukraine’s acceptance into NATO (accelerated or not)?  And for those countries which continue to finesse their statements—would they kindly stop mumbling & state clearly the basis for their hedging, dodging, foot-dragging, moving the goal posts…  Thanks.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    Thank you again Adam, the Starlink snowflake has basically cut most of us off from anything thing not in the MSM, and here you are, filling in the blanks, at emotional cost.

    Thank you so much.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    ICYMI, Interview with Amb. McFaul at RFERL:

    And let me answer your other very important point about frozen conflicts. I think that argument also needs to be retired. I don’t know how the war ends. I hope it ends with unified borders of Ukraine, the 1991 borders; that should be the ultimate goal. But if, God forbid, it doesn’t in the short run, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskiy himself and the people of Ukraine, they’re the ones that need to make that decision — not me in Palo Alto, and not President Biden sitting in Washington or anybody else. That is arrogant beyond belief that we should pretend that that’s our decision; that’s his decision and the people of Ukraine’s.

    But if somehow it settles into a frozen conflict, that should never again be used as an excuse to say, “Well, we can’t have NATO membership.” And I think the analogy is West Germany in 1955, when they joined the alliance. Because the borders were unsettled, but we found it in our interests to help bring West Germany into the alliance to stabilize the setting there and then, long-term, create the conditions for unification.

    Because I’m convinced that if, tragically, the borders were somehow not the 1991 borders, the goal for Ukraine has to be to become a thriving economy, capitalist economy, thriving democracy; and you need security for that. And one day, their success will be what compels people on the other side of the border to rejoin and reunite, just like we saw in Germany in 1989. And so that needs to be the goal, and NATO membership is part of reaching that goal.

    Well worth a click.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    dirge

    @Carlo Graziani: there is a great deal of unreason even in the West

    To clarify, Russia’s leadership and their fellow travelers in the west, are exactly who I’m talking about.  In many ways, it’s much more important to understand its role in our own backyard.  That unreason, or anti-reason, is precisely what they all share in common.  It’s the common thread that binds Putin and Trump to the dirtbag leftists who ruined your local DSA chapter, the petty tyrant who wrecked the startup you were working for, the brutal cop or abusive husband or father.

    Some of them, I suppose, are just following the logic of a broken culture, but the people driving that culture are proceeding from the same intellectual toolkit of motivated reasoning, magical thinking, and paranoid solipsism.  It’s pre-enlightenment thinking, or post-enlightenment romantic reaction, or postmodern anti-intellectualism.  Whatever it is, it’s it’s incompatible with civilized society, and it’s not something you can talk people out of after their formative years.

    Russia is its most florid expression.  Today’s Republican Party is almost entirely subsumed.  But the same tendency bubbles to the surface every place that doesn’t aggressively police against it, then metastasizes.

  21. 21.

    Viva BrisVegas

    @catfishncod:

    The English c. 1790 could still entertain dreams of reconquering the United States. By 1815, no one with sense still talked like that.

    Very few anyway. The goals of the UK in the war of 1812 were pretty simple. First, to cut off US aid to the the real enemy, Bonaparte. Second, to prevent the US from taking advantage of the Napoleonic War to annex Canada.

    They were fighting the French in a global war. The war of 1812 was an unwelcome distraction which they were glad to see the end of.

  22. 22.

    SectionH

    Let me just start thanking a bunch you posters. Uhhh, dirge and Carlo and Another Scott and Chris T and Alison (for the fuck’em) and – well damn. I shouldn’t have started individuals.

    I usually try kinda keep up w/ BJ and usually fail, not too many posts yet in still July 3rd. Best for last heartfelt THANK YOU ADAM.

    edited

  24. 24.

    Ruckus

    @Chetan Murthy:

    It’s got nothing to do with actual *truth*.

    With Russia it rarely does. They are in the position they are in because it rarely does. They make it up as they go along, they have been for my over 7 decades, every second of every day. And they get it wrong a billion times more often than they ever get it right.

  25. 25.

    Ruckus

    @Carlo Graziani:

    But yes, Russia is actually governed by unreason, and Russian governance and culture appear to heavily disincentivize reason as a process for ordering ideas and policies. It’s part and parcel their peculiar claim to national manifest destiny.

    You said it far better than I did but I believe we are saying the same thing, just in a different manner.

  26. 26.

    Geminid

    London-based Middle East Eye put up an article June 30 about the Wagner Group’s African operations, titled:

       Wagner rebellion leaves Prigozhin and Putin scrambling for Influence in Africa 

    The Russian president’s greatest challenge to his time in power might be over, but Wagner’s legacy in Africa is up for grabs

    Two Wagner allies:

       For African leaders like the Central African Republic(CAR) President Austin Archange Toudera and Libya’s eastern renegade leader Khalifa Haftar, Wagner’s fate is now interwoven with theirs.

    Both men owe their survival in part to Wagner’s mercenaries, their weapons, and the training they provide to their respective militaries.

    Wagner has been a vehicle for projecting Russia’s power on the continent:

       By outsourcing its operations to Wagner in Africa, Russia was able to cheaply and quickly expand its influence into Libya, Syria, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Mali, and the CAR.

    With a capable military of its own, the UAE do not need Wagner’s military assistance, but instead has served as an administrative hub for Wagner. According to Andreus Krieg, security studies professor at King’s College London:

       “I would also say that the Russian state has only very limited over the networks that Wagner has created in Africa. And tge number one reason reason for that is they have an independent logistical and financial infrastructure the set up in tge UAE.”

    Krieg said it might be a “a game changer” were Putin to ask UAE President Mohammed bin Zayd Al Nahan to “clamp down” on Wagner activities in his country, but I wonder how much leverage Putin has in this matter.

    Krieg also says “the rational thing” would be for Russia to leave Wagner’s Africa projects untouched. Statements by FM Lavrov indicate that is the plan for now, but this seems a fluid situation.

    Middle East Eye is also reporting on the continued power struggle in Sudan. The stories range from bad to horrible.

  27. 27.

    Geminid

    @Geminid: Wagner’s role in Syria and Libya may be affected by changing political conditions. Syria’s Arab neighbors have concluded that the murderous President Assad is there to stay, and are patching up relations.

    The Russian military has a strong presence in northwest Syria that seems secure. Wagner’s presence in the east of the country could change. Reports are that Russian military police detained Wagner leaders in Syria for the duration of Prigozhin’s mutiny. Unlike in the African countries mentioned above, Russia is well placed to take over Wagner operations in Syria.

    Conditions in Libya could change also. Wagner forces spearheaded General Haftar’s drive on Tripoli in 2019. Effective control of Libya’s oil production would have been quite a prize, and could have given Wagner a share in revenues from Libya’s 1 million+ barrels per day of oil produced (which could double under stable conditions). But Turkiye’s intervention sent Haftar’s forces back to the eastern half of the country, which Haftar controlled before he invited Wagner in.

    The UAE are important sponsors of Haftar, but now that they have restored friendly relations with Turkiye the Libyan conflict may stabilize along the current lines of control, and Wagner’s forces there might transfer to more active conflict zones.

  28. 28.

    Betty

    What is the likelihood Wagner will continue getting substantial financial support from African operations?

  29. 29.

    zhena gogolia

    @dimmsdale: Seconded! I’m glad someone is thinking about what the holiday should mean, beyond annoying one’s neighbors. With every explosion, I think what that sound means for someone in Kyiv or Dnipro or Kherson.

  30. 30.

    Geminid

    @Betty: From what the Middle East Eye reporter says, the Wagner operations in Africa will still produce revenues including gold for now. The Russian government would have some difficulty supplanting Wagner’s network in these countries.

    The article is worth a read. Middle East Eye seems like a good source and they cover a lot of ground. They were a good source for reporting on the Turkish elections. Right now they are reporting on the Israeli military  operation in Jenin, in the West Bank, as well as the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

    They also have a good article on rap music and the French immigrant community that gives some background for the current unrest there.

  31. 31.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Sebastian: I did not see that. I’ve seen news items suggesting that the Russian Shahed manufacturing capability is expected to come on-line in 2024.

    The Russians may be firing some prototypes, but their firing rate in June was actually down from its May peak, which would not seem consistent with new production already available now.

  32. 32.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Carlo Graziani: Although if the May firing surge represented the new Iranian shipment scheme (parts assembled in Russia) coming on-line, it could be that the decline to the June rate represents equilibration to the new supply-chain capacity, so that it’s already priced in.

  33. 33.

    Torrey

    ​

    @zhena gogolia: ​
     Thirded, from a someone whose neighbors seem to like fireworks. I can’t imagine what even a simple car backfire must sound like to people in Ukraine.

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