Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No Justins, No Peace

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

No one could have predicted…

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you don’t.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

“They not like us!” (that’s for sure!)

He really is that stupid.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

In after Baud. Damn.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

I’m more Christian than these people and I’m an atheist.

Nikki Haley, who can’t acknowledge ‘slavery’, is a pathetic shill.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

Second rate reporter says what?

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

Oh FFS you might as well trust a 6-year-old with a flamethrower.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 698: Updated Information on the Donetsk Strike – the Russians Most Likely Did It!

War for Ukraine Day 698: Updated Information on the Donetsk Strike – the Russians Most Likely Did It!

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Last night we opened up with what was being alleged to be a Ukrainian strike on Russian occupied Donetsk. The Russian occupation authorities were claiming that the strike was both Ukrainian and had killed civilians. We now have more, and more accurate, information.

More on this after the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Necessary groundwork must be done to ensure that all complications between government officials, business, and law enforcers are resolved – address by the President of Ukraine

22 January 2024 – 21:05

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

The Day of Unity of Ukraine. Once again, I congratulate everyone on this holiday, on the fact that our people and our state have truly felt the potential of unity and the strength that unity gives to the whole nation. It is thanks to unity that Ukraine has endured this war and is defending itself against the Russian onslaught. And it is thanks to the unity not only of ours, but also of everyone in the world who has realized what Russia’s aggression brings. Today, on the Day of Unity, Polish Prime Minister Tusk visited Ukraine. And this is his first visit to a country outside the EU – outside for now – to Ukraine after taking office. The first visit. A very productive one. Today, Mr. Prime Minister Tusk and I had a very meaningful conversation about all the issues between our countries – between Ukraine and Poland – and at the level of European institutions. Defense – there will be a defense package from Poland. And to strengthen our positions, we talked about joint production of weapons, about increasing our capabilities in using Polish equipment and weapons systems. Of course, we talked in detail about political cooperation. About the fact that all the problems between Ukraine and Poland can be overcome mutually – at the level of our states. I am confident that we can overcome the critical situations on the border – the blockade – which significantly undermine solidarity now, and can find pragmatic solutions to any critical situations. I am grateful to Poland for joining the G7 declaration on security commitments for Ukraine. We are starting to work on a bilateral security agreement. We discussed in detail our course towards the European Union and our expectations from this year’s NATO Summit. Poland can help. And, by the way, it is very important that the experience of Poland and Prime Minister Tusk personally – experience in relations with European institutions – can significantly strengthen our actions and decisions. We will use it. We have agreed on the format. Today we had a good meeting and conversation at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy with students of our universities. We were there together with Mr. Prime Minister of Poland, and I am grateful to all the students for their attention to this meeting and for their insightful questions.

I would also like to mention several meetings today.

First, we are specifying our further work with partners for this month and the following month, until the end of February. Ukraine should and will be on the world’s agenda. We are preparing the necessary negotiations and documents. The second meeting concerned Russian assets frozen in various jurisdictions that should be used for protection against Russian aggression. We are shoring up our position – the position of justice. And third. Today, government officials met with representatives of Ukrainian business. The discussion was not an easy one. There are some serious issues. There are real difficulties. I have familiarized myself with the details and asked to do the necessary groundwork to ensure that all complications between government officials, business, and law enforcers are resolved. Everyone can have their own opinion, yes, but in times of war we all have to be united by one task – the strength of Ukraine, the strength of our society and our economy. All the developments will be presented at the National Security and Defense Council.

I thank everyone who is with Ukraine and in Ukraine! I am grateful to everyone who strengthens Ukraine, who fights and works for our country, our society, our people – all Ukrainians.

Glory to Ukraine!

And here is President Zelenskyy’s address specifically focusing on Unity Day:

And here is the English transcript:

Address by the President of Ukraine on the Day of Unity

22 January 2024 – 09:01

Fellow citizens!

Exactly 105 years ago, right here on Sophia Square in Kyiv, the following lines were proclaimed: “The age-old dreams have come true, dreams that the best sons of Ukraine lived for and died for. From now on, the parts of a single Ukraine, separated for centuries, are united into one.”

These are the words of the Unification Act, which brought together the Ukrainian lands on both banks of the Dnipro River into a single state. And on this occasion, today we celebrate the Day of Unity of Ukraine.

Every year on January 22, we have always recalled two key lessons of those times, two guiding principles for all generations of the Ukrainian nation: to gain your own statehood, you have to fight. To preserve it, you have to unite.

And the day has come when it fell to all of us to prove: both these lessons have been learned. Every Ukrainian knows this day. When recalling it, there’s no need to mention the year, just the date and month will suffice. It’s the 24th of February.

When we showed that the unity and independence of Ukraine are real, not declarative values for us. And we did not give up our state, but proved from the first day of the war that people’s full-scale unity repels full-scale enemy aggression. Not symbolically, not sporadically, not in words, but on the frontlines – on all fronts of the war against unfreedom. In all forms of the battle for the preservation of Ukraine. United, independent, strong.

As a tribute to it, since 1990, Ukrainians have been coming together in human chains of unity. Ukrainian unity stretching from west to east. On February 24, Ukrainians joined hands again. Having chosen again not the chains of slavery, but the chain of unity. The only difference is that it has taken on a new form. When every Ukrainian no longer had the concept of “my” or “not my” region, as every corner of Ukraine, every city and village became native. When we became dear to each other. When Ukrainians from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, Dnipro fight for Ukrainians in Donbas and Crimea, in the south and north. When Ukrainians from Zakarpattia, Bukovyna, and Halychyna open the doors of their homes and provide shelter to Ukrainians from Mariupol, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainians who fight. Ukrainians who work. Ukrainians who help. Ukrainian mothers and Ukrainian children who have lost their homes and are now abroad, contributing to the common resistance, collecting and delivering what is needed here. When Ukrainians from every region work to protect every region.

And to liberate every corner that is temporarily occupied. When the Ukrainians who are now there are waiting for us and hearing us. Continuing to be Ukrainians, continuing to resist. And together we will definitely force Russia to leave. And the words of the Unification Act about the unification of the parts of Ukraine that were separated from each other will be heard again. They will become a reality. Because today every Ukrainian is fighting for every Ukrainian. Proving that when all Ukrainians join hands, they won’t raise them to surrender.

We all fight. And today, this is true not only for the Dnipro’s two banks. Today, the unity of Ukrainians spans both hemispheres of the Earth. In every corner of which, on February 24, there were people declaring, “I am Ukrainian.” Declaring it on all continents where our people live. Those who, with the outbreak of a full-scale war, regardless of their place of residence, birth, or passport, said in the affirmative, “I am Ukrainian.” Those who proved it with their deeds. Our millions-strong diaspora, our lobbyists for Ukraine’s interests around the world. Those who collect, find, pack and deliver everything needed for the victory. All those who have not forgotten their roots and do not let the world forget about Ukraine. Everyone who has Ukrainian blood in their veins and a free heart beating in their chest. Ukrainians by origin, who have long proven that they are Ukrainians in spirit. And after many years of waiting, they should finally become Ukrainians by passport. At the legislative level. Today I am submitting to the Verkhovna Rada a key draft law that will allow the adoption of comprehensive legislative amendments and the introduction of multiple citizenship.

And it will allow all ethnic Ukrainians and their descendants from around the world to have our citizenship. Of course, except for citizens of the aggressor country.

All those who, during various emigration waves, were forced to leave their homeland and ended up in Europe, the United States, Canada, countries of Asia and Latin America. All those who help us despite being hundreds and thousands of kilometers away from their homeland.

Foreign volunteers who took up arms to defend Ukraine, all those who fight for Ukraine’s freedom as if it were their homeland. And Ukraine will become such for them.

For everyone who can feel that “being in Ukraine” means “being at home.” Not as tourists, but as citizens. Citizens of a great, united, single Ukraine.

For the freedom of which we are fighting. Fighting for the right to be Ukrainians. And the corresponding decision is one of the elements of this freedom, one of the possibilities to realize this right. The right to be Ukrainian.

Furthermore, today we must take steps not only to strengthen the unity of Ukraine and our people, but also to act for the unity of rights and freedoms, the truth about Ukrainians, the truth about us, and the truth about our history.

To this end, today I have signed a Decree “On the Territories of the Russian Federation Historically Inhabited by Ukrainians.” This is the restoration of truth about the historical past for the sake of Ukraine’s future.

Fellow Ukrainians!

In the spring of 2022, I saw Bucha for the first time after the occupation. And for the first time I wore a T-shirt with the words “I am Ukrainian.” Always, and especially now, the words “I am Ukrainian” carry a special meaning. Today, they are filled with courage, pride, and indomitability of our people. The pain that every Ukrainian feels and at the same time the strength that helps us endure everything. Overcome everything. Survive everything. Knowing and remembering that only strong Ukrainians can be united. And only united Ukrainians can be strong.

Ukrainians all over the world.

I am Ukrainian.

Happy Unity Day, fellow Ukrainians! 

Glory to Ukrainians! 

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost!

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was also in Kyiv today.

The Financial Times has the details.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has pledged to make his country the “most reliable” backer of Ukraine, as western allies struggle to approve further financial and military assistance nearly two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion.

“It is very important to build the feeling that Poland is the most reliable, most stable ally of Ukraine in this deadly clash with evil,” Tusk said during a visit to Kyiv on Monday. “There is nothing more important than supporting Ukraine in its war effort against the Russian attack. This is absolutely number one.”

The Polish premier’s highly anticipated trip comes after relations with Kyiv deteriorated during the last year in office of the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which engaged in trade disputes and mutual recriminations with Ukraine’s government. Tusk took office last month pledging to repair the relationship and place Poland at the heart of EU policymaking.

Poland and Ukraine are ready to finalise talks on investments to jointly produce ammunition and weapons, Tusk said on Monday after talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“The whole free world should help Ukraine in every aspect because it’s our common interest,” he said in a video released by Zelenskyy’s office of the two leaders meeting. “There is no space for symmetry, for neutrality.”

Tusk’s show of support was welcomed by Ukrainian officials, who have been calling on EU and US allies to set aside their domestic political differences and agree on new financial and military aid together worth about $110bn, as Russia has intensified its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Zelenskyy welcomed Tusk as a “good friend”. “We are thankful that Poland, your society, has always been with Ukrainians from the first days of the full-scale war,” he said.

Tusk vowed to resolve all remaining disputes “in the spirit of friendship” and “not to maintain or multiply them”, according to a statement published on the social media platform X.

Much more at the link!

While Tusk’s visit and statements are important, the reality is still currently grim.

Here’s more on the strike in Donetsk from the Thread Reader App:

Crater evidence indicates weapon used was a mortar. If it had been fired by UA forces, the mortar team would have had to have snuck 10 km into Russian-held territory, during daylight, fired, and then escaped back through the front line, without being captured.

This is unlikely. 

Big problem with this occurred to me: Given that artillery or mortar shells travel at multiple times the speed of sound, if a shell lands nearby you’re going to hear the impact explosion BEFORE, you hear the sound of the round being fired, if it’s kms away. Not what video shows. 
Crater from incoming shell that hit near the market – it looks very much like a mortar round crater. A 155mm shell would have dug a much bigger hole.Image
This looks more like a mortar attack than an artillery attack to me, going by the images of craters. Given their range, the weapons would still have had to have been fired inside Russian-held territory – the front line is too far away for them to have been fired from UA positions 
Correction: Mortar shells don’t travel at supersonic speeds. 

More from the Thread Reader App from the account that MacDonald was quote tweeting:

There is one small problem with “Ukraine attacked a Donetsk market in the Kirovskyi District with mortars.”

It’s impossible.

The LOC is 15.2 km away.

No 120 mm mortar system in NATO inventory can reach 15,700 meters.

Splash patterns don’t match any barrel artillery rounds. 

Russian state media and propagandists were very careful not to photograph craters – makes analysis harder – but there is this one.

That’s not from an S-300 missile, Grad, or Smerch rocket. It was a unitary HE warhead and not fragmentation.Image

According to Russian sources, this is the crater caused by a 155 mm artillery round. 

https://twitter.com/A__Alimov/status/1531187814167105538

And more from Sergej Sumlenny, also from the Thread Reader App:

A market in Russia-occupied Ukrainian Donetsk being hit today looks like a 💯Russia-staged provocation:
1) There is no history of UA hitting civilian targets;
2) RU FM Lavrov arrives to the UN this week, RU needs arguments against ams deliveries to UA;
3) Compare Bilhorod case ⬇️ 
3.1) In Dec 2023, Russia shelled its city of Bilhorod with artillery shells, a Christmas market was hit, multiple civilians killed, incl kids. Russia blamed Ukraine for using attack drones to hit the city. But the photos clearly showed traces of artillery shelling ⬇️Image
3.2) So as the next step, the Russians said, the Ukrainians hit Bilhorod with Western(Czechia)-supplied “Vampire” MLRS rockets. The problem: Vampire have double as short range, can not reach Bilhorod. Maria Zakharova from Russian FM still requested a UN SC meeting. ⬇️ 

4) Russia has a long history of shelling cities in Donbas which are under RU occupation to blame Ukraine for that. Already in 2014, RU has even acknowledged it officially – one of RU commanders who was purged after a conflict, was trialed for this. .

5) Summary: ignore what Russia says, it is guaranteed a lie. Russia has a decades-long history of killing own people to blame others. And people from Donetsk are not even being seen as their “own”, they are nothing but slaves for the Russians. 

Avdiivka:

Bakhmut:

From Suspilne: (machine translation):

Residents Avdiks became more active in recording for evacuation from the city, on the morning of January 22, 1,001 people remained in the city.

About it on the air “Public. The resistance was reported by the head of the Avdiyev City Military Administration Vitaly Barabash.

“We feel that people are recording more actively. Yesterday (January 20 — ed.) She was gone. And before that, two days in a row, 9 people left. There has been no such evacuation for a long time. People feel that the tension is great around the city. They see that it is becoming increasingly difficult for us to import humanitarian aid, because it is true that we are constantly being beaten on the road, — said Barabash.

According to him, the evacuation is scheduled for January 22 and 23.

“And we even have those who want to on January 24,” — added a head of administration.

He noted that last night was “more or less calm”: there were isolated chaotic shelling in the old and central parts of the city, there was no mass shelling at night.

“We understand that it’s only for the most part at night. On a world day, of course, very hotly shook around the city. In total, there were 37 mass shootings in the community over the past day, with — many times more. And 12 air bombings. Most of these air bombings in the central part of the city, — said Barabash.

 

Russian occupied Makiivka and Donetsk:

Russian occupied Melitopol:

An update on the petroleum facility in Ust-Luga, Russia:

The damage of the oil and gas terminal in Ust-Luga, Russia, is apparently worse than initially expected. According to analysts at the Moscow-based BCS brokerage it might take weeks, maybe even months, until the facility will return to significant capacity.

Two Ukrainian-made drones have successfully enforced “sanctions” on Russia’s hydrocarbon trades. You can be sure that we are talking not only of millions but billions of USD which will not come or the very least severely delayed. Penalties for not fulfilling contractual duties are not even included.

Source: https://reuters.com/world/europe/analysts-see-russian-fuel-complex-resuming-operations-within-weeks-after-2024-01-22/

#Russia #Leningrad #Ukraine

Moscow:

Details from The Financial Times:

Apple has paid a Rbs1.18bn ($12.3mn) fine into Russia’s state budget, after a court in Moscow found the US tech giant guilty of abusing its dominant market position through the App Store.

FAS, Russia’s anti-monopoly watchdog, announced on Monday it had received the payment following a November ruling that found Apple had prohibited app developers from informing customers that they can pay for their purchases outside the App Store.

The payment will go directly to the Russian budget, boosting the Kremlin’s coffers at a time when President Vladimir Putin’s government is raising funds to support record defence spending on prosecuting the war in Ukraine.

The dispute between Apple and Russia’s competition regulator began before the invasion in February 2022, and is not the first time it has paid fines since then.

The iPhone-maker also paid a Rbs906mn ($10.1mn) fine a year later for a different violation of antimonopoly law, according to the FAS. Other western tech groups, including Google, have paid fines following action by FAS in recent years.

In order to pay fines imposed by the Russian government, US companies must seek permission from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, the body that enforces trade controls.

Apple and the US Treasury did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

More at the link!

For those of you DIY/kitbashing enthusiasts:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material.

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

27Comments

  1. 1.

    frosty

    It’s likely the Russians did it? That was my thought; it made no sense for the Ukrainians to be shelling Ukrainians.

    Thanks for all these posts, Adam. They’ve inspired me to call and email my useless R rep and tell him to give Ukraine everything they ask for. Period.

  3. 3.

    Jay

    Victoria
    @victoriaslog
    19h
    Donetsk residents discussed in chats that Russia shelled the market because workers complained there was no water.

    They also mentioned that Russia shells Donetsk to show it in the news and distract Russians from their troubles and that Ukraine shells only military targets, but they have to be careful not to get in jail for the truth while they live under Russian occupation.

    They might be silent, but they pray for the day they’ll be free again, and probably for Russia’s end too.

    https://nitter.net/victoriaslog/status/1749309500161470616#m

  4. 4.

    Urza

    @Jay: Ok, I suppose that makes sense.  I was trying to figure out why Russia would false flag attacking themselves when there’s no particular reason Ukraine shouldn’t attack them in the territory they control.  Aside from wanting to keep fellow Ukrainians safe.

  5. 5.

    Jay

    @Urza:

    ruZZia has a long history of false flag attacks on even ruZZians.

    The FSB Apartment bombings were used to justify the 2nd Chechen War

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Russian_apartment_bombings

    Another reason why I believe that Canada should send the military to the Alaskan border, set up “filtration camps” and interrogation centers to make sure that “Alaskans”, (if they are) are not “Little Green Men” or “5th Columnists”.

    After all, Alaska is now ruZZian.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    That second video from Zelenskyy is really lovely. The last few minutes with Ukrainians around the world was quite moving.

    I do have a translation question, if G&T or dr luba are about: I know that in the first handful of clips, the people are saying “I’m (or We’re) Ukrainian” and I was able to auto-translate most of the rest, but “Украіна соборна” comes back as from Google as “Cathedral Ukraine”, while DeepL gives me “Ukraine’s unity” (or “Unified Ukraine” as an alternative). I’m assuming the correct translation is close to one of the latter, because cathedral doesn’t make any sense there.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    dr. luba

    І assumed it was a false flag attack yesterday when I heard about it. Ukraine does not target civilians; russia does.  Thanks for confirming it.

  10. 10.

    dr. luba

    @Alison Rose: DeepL has been really buggy today.  I was trying to translate some ethnographic text, and it’s been horrible–weird translations, ignoring large sections of text, disappearing text when I edit….

  17. 17.

    Chetan Murthy

    @dr. luba: Not only that, but also

    1. (as I’m sure you and G&T can confirm), Ukraine makes a big, big deal out of adhering to the laws of war, and being *seen* to adhere to them.  A big deal.  This would be a gigantic own-goal.
    2.  Ukraine is low on shells: from what I read, all sorts, but also arty & mortar.  It would be a stupid waste of ammo to use ’em on some civilian market, when there were military targets a-beggin’ to be hit

    And that doesn’t get into the moral issues.  It’s one thing to bomb Moscow; it’s completely another to bomb Ukrainian *civilians*: I’m sure there’d be a lot of discontent if Ukraine did this.

  19. 19.

    Another Scott

    KyivIndependent.com:

    European Union foreign ministers have reached a political agreement to finalize the work on transferring revenues from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine based on the proposal suggested in December, EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell said on Jan. 22.

    “I’m almost sure this will be finalized soon… Discussions will continue on the level of ambassadors, but I see that the agreement is coming,” Borrell told reporters following a meeting of the EU foreign ministers in Brussels.

    He added that the EU aims to officially make the decision before the next meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council, scheduled for Feb. 19.

    The EU proposed a plan on Dec. 12 to seize about 15 billion euros ($16.2 billion) in projected profits generated by frozen assets of Russia’s Central Bank and transfer them to Ukraine.

    The plan would reportedly require banks holding the assets to place profits in a separate bank account, which would then be transferred to the EU’s budget on an annual basis in order to provide funding for Ukraine. The proposal must be approved by the European Parliament, and all 27 EU member states before it can be implemented.

    […]

    This presumably is easier and quicker to implement legally, and presumably less risky for the global financial system norms, than full confiscation.

    Here’s hoping they can get it done quickly.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  20. 20.

    Lyrebird

    @dr. luba: I also figured it was done by the ru forces, wasn’t sure whether an intentional false flag or just a mistake they were trying to blame on Ukr.

    I only understand a little from here in the US, reading Adam’s posts and quaoar’s stuff on DKos.  With that recent education, sure I know there is disagreement both at the top levels of the military and the middle levels, and Pres. Z. has his critics, but not a single one of those leaders seems to be into sloppy work.  Where the ru forces are all, oh yeah let’s use some kind of blunt instrument to slam these badly-made missiles into this launcher, let’s flatten everything in case we miss…

    I totally agreed with the Grumpy Ukrainian (sp?) commenter last night.

    Sigh.

    May victory and liberation come sooner than seems possible!

    ETA: I remain anti-war in general, and very anti ru’s war on Ukraine in particular.  I do not watch the stuff blowing up with laughs, though I do not judge people on the front lines for doing so.  I just figure, every tank, every radar, every TOS abomination blown up means that many fewer tanks etc attacking.

  21. 21.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    At the risk of stating the obvious, this is really bad news on every possible front, from the increase in death and suffering all over the Middle East to what it does for our resupplying of Ukraine to what it does for November’s election.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @YY_Sima Qian: This may not be entirely a bad thing, if the effect is to refocus US foreign policy in the region on resolution of Israel-Palestine territorial issues.

    Not to be to crass about a tragedy, but in my opinion this is an eggs and omelets situation. There is simply no prospect of a solution that is not mediated and midwifed by the US, almost certainly to the point of exerting toppling pressure on the Netanyahu government. And for that level of commitment, the US Government may need the political spur of a region-wide calamity in the making.

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: One would hope so, but there currently are no signs that the Administration, Congress or the American public have any appetite to wade so deeply back into the Middle Easter morass. The Biden Administration is reacting to each new development in the disparate parts of the region, & not actively attempting to shape the situation by executing a coherent strategy.

    The only “strategy” trial ballooned to date is reverting to the pre-Oct. 7 play of facilitating KSA-Israeli rapprochement, only faster & w/ greater urgency. While any sympathy that the House of Sand may have for the Palestinians are surely performative & rooted in cynical calculations, “normalizing” relations w/ Israel while paying only lip service to the resolution of Palestinian issue is no longer a viable course of action after Oct. 7, or more specifically the grossly disproportional Israeli response in Gaza to the atrocities committed on that day.

    The KSA has publicly stated that the War in Gaza needs to end, & that Israel-Palestine embark on a clear & irreversible path toward a 2SS, before they could normalize relations w/ Israel. There is actually quite a bit of wiggle room in that language, but not likely one that is acceptable to large segments in Israel. It is not just Bibi & the ultra-right wing religion-fascist coalition partners that are inimically opposed to the 2SS. Even the Israelis who support a 2SS might have dramatically different ideas of what an acceptable Palestinian state might look like. An archipelago of “Bantustans”, w/o Palestinian controlled link between Gaza & the WB, does not a state make. The KSA’s other price for normalization (security guarantees from the US, nuclear technology, etc.) are enormously problematic in themselves.

    At the same time, Jordan, Türkiye, Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria, (not to mention Iran, Libya, Syria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Chile, Columbia, Slovenia), the Arab League & the Organization of Islamic Cooperation have all come out in support of the South African case on genocide against Israel in the ICJ.

    Meanwhile, there is zero sign out of the Administration that it is prepared to exercise any leverage over Israel to compel changes in behavior in either Gaza or the WB, & only rhetorical pressure from a minority of Ds in Congress.

    Finally, just about every ME specialist I have followed have noted that the US no longer has the leverage, prestige or power to dictate outcomes in the ME, even leaving aside whether the will exists. The people who still do think the US can dictate outcomes are warmongering reactionaries agitating for conventional war against Iran & all of its proxies.

    I really do not see how your wish could come into fruition.

  27. 27.

    pieceofpeace

    Adam and commentors, I appreciate receiving knowledge about the conflicts and problems going on in the Middle East, formed with easily-readable explanations.  Otherwise, I’d be tempted to ignore it.  Thank you all.

Comments are closed.