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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 700: Odesa in the Crosshairs & Murkiness Surrounding the Downed IL-26

War for Ukraine Day 700: Odesa in the Crosshairs & Murkiness Surrounding the Downed IL-26

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Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia opened up on Odesa earlier this evening local time.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine has overcome a tremendous path, stood firm and must defend itself – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

24 January 2024 – 23:20

Dear Ukrainians!

The 700th day of this war – a very difficult day.

First. I summoned Umerov, Zaluzhnyi, Shaptala, Budanov and Maliuk – they reported on the situation with the aircraft and the exchange.

It is obvious that the Russians are messing with the lives of Ukrainian captives, the feelings of their relatives, and the emotions of our society.

All clear facts must be established. To the extent possible, given that the aircraft crashed on Russian territory – beyond our control.

“Facts” is the key word now.

I heard a report from the Commander-in-Chief and the General Staff on the use of the Air Force. The Main Intelligence Directorate is clarifying the fate of all captives. The Security Service of Ukraine is investigating all the circumstances. I have instructed the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine to provide our partners with the information available to Ukraine. Our state will insist on an international investigation.

Second. Today there were reports on the situation on the frontline – a key focus area. Special attention was paid to Avdiivka, other positions in Donetsk region, as well as the Kupyansk direction.

We are doing everything to strengthen our warriors.

Third. The U.S. Senate committee has adopted an important decision on the confiscation of Russian assets, which is a completely fair step. Russia must feel the real cost of its aggression the most, and we in Ukraine are truly grateful to all those who are helping to find, freeze and prepare the confiscation of assets of the Russian state and its associates. I thank everyone in the U.S. Congress who cares about protecting justice.

Fourth. I spoke with the German Chancellor. The topics are quite obvious. I expressed gratitude for the relations we have achieved, for the support and cooperation. It is very important that Germany steadfastly and fundamentally defends Europe – freedom and stability on our continent. The democratic system in Europe can only be preserved if Germany continues to be a reliable defender of democracy.

We discussed further cooperation with Mr. Chancellor. In particular, our defense – first and foremost, of course, protection against Russian missiles and drones. Germany has already saved thousands of Ukrainian lives. We are preparing new joint steps as well.

We also discussed the economy and political interaction at the level of the entire European Union. In particular, this concerns the macrofinancial sector.

I am also grateful to Olaf, to Mr. Chancellor, for his willingness to work on a security agreement based on the corresponding G7 Declaration.

One more thing.

700 days of full-scale war – the war of these Russian savages against Ukraine and life itself. Another Russian strike on Odesa – missiles, “Shahed” drones. Shelling of Kherson and the region. Nikopol, Dnipro, other cities of Dnipropetrovsk region. Our Donetsk region.

Ukraine has overcome a tremendous path, stood firm and must defend itself. It must defend our people and the interests of our state.

I have just signed a decree to honor our warriors with state awards. 243 of our servicemen from different brigades – combat brigades. In total, more than 69 thousand of our defenders from the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine have been awarded: Armed Forces, National Guard, border guards, intelligence, police and other elements of our defense forces. I am grateful to each and every one of them for their fortitude.

Glory to our people! 

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost I:

Colonel Oleg Babii, the Hero of Ukraine and scout of the @DI_Ukraine.

Together with his group, they destroyed three russian Tu-22M3 bombers in the deep rear of the enemy. Ukrainian scouts passed more than 600 km of enemy territory on foot. Returning from the task, the reconnaissance group was ambushed and engaged in an unequal battle with the Russian invaders. Covering the departure of his brothers in arms, Oleg Babii was killed.

For his heroic feat, Oleg Babii was awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine with the “Golden Star” order. Posthumously. Glory to Heroes!

The cost II:

Here’s a little good news:

A bit more:

More:

During the #Ramstein18 meeting, Minister of @NationalDefence of Canada, @BillBlair, announced a new donation of 10 Multirole Boats from Zodiac Hurricane Technologies, valued at approximately $20 million.
Canada will also provide civilian instructors, planes, and support staff within the F-16 Training Coalition.

Thank you, friends!
We appreciate your staunch support!
🇺🇦🤝🇨🇦

And a bit more:

And even more:

So Russia claimed that Ukraine shot down a Russian IL-26 carrying Ukrainian POWs headed for a prisoner exchange.

Here is the statement from Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence:

It appears that several of the names of the POWs supposedly killed on the plane that went down over Belgorod today have already been returned back to Ukraine.

So far, I find it doubtful that the downed Russian aircraft was transporting 65 Ukrainan POWs ‘for prisoner swap’ conveyed by just 3 Russians.

It’s also not highly probable that Ukraine’s military had no idea that a certain Il-76 was carrying POW. Especially now that Russians even claim there were suddenly other POW aircraft, too.

You know, prisoner swaps between Ukraine and Russia are complex and highly sensitive operations in which every breath is reconciled between the two sides for weeks, if not months.

I find it doubtful that in such a major swap involving more than one aircraft full of Ukrainian POWs, the Ukrainian military had no idea about the massive air transfer to Belgorod.

Possible, but not likely.

Lastly, if I understand the situation right, the Il-76 was downed shortly after takeoff near the town of Yablonovo northeast of Belgorod.

So it was supposedly leaving Belgorod, not arriving (I am not sure about this). Was it really about a major prisoner swap?

But… let’s wait and see what really happened.

Either way, any word coming out of the Russian military’s mouth deserves ZERO trust.

Now we wait to see what new evidence comes to light.

Kharkiv:

Avdiivka:

Here’s the rest of Tatarigami’s assessment from the Thread Reader App:

2/ While the northern part of Avdiivka is shielded by the AKHZ (industrial buildings), the southern area is comprised of one to two-story houses susceptible to artillery fire. If unable to capture the area, russians erase it with artillery, deploy infantry, and seize the rubble. 
3/ The visible artillery strikes, moving from the outskirts to residential areas, indicate the shift. Eventually, the damage makes defense challenging. The same problem extends to nearby multi-story apartment buildings targeted by previous Russian FAB hits.Image
4/ The situation on the flanks remains more stable, enabling Ukrainian forces to defend Avdiivka. Sattelite imagery shows a continued shift of artillery fire north of Avdiivka, targeting areas near Stepove, Berdychi, Novobakhmutivka, and NovokalynivkaImage
5/ In summary, Avdiivka’s situation has worsened due to limited artillery ammo, a decrease in counter-battery fire, and a lack of reinforcements. Russia exploits these gaps, leveraging its personnel and ammo numbers advantage. 
6/ Resurgence of Helicopter Operations

Our team previously identified a FARP (Forward Arming and Refueling Point) helicopter base in Strilkove. Following Ukraine’s ATACMS strikes on airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk, the base was abandoned and remained unused until recently.Image

7/ Recent imagery from January 2024 reveals the presence of Russian helicopters at the base. Analysis over multiple days indicates that Russians keep no more than 3-4 helicopters at a time. Additionally, the helicopters appear to be more dispersedImage
8/ We continue to emphasize the need for a sufficient supply of weaponry to Ukraine to achieve a shift in the balance of power. Small numbers provide a short-term advantage, with operational success possible under the right conditions, but the enemy uses this time to adapt. 
9/ Kindly consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us.

Thank You

Ukrinform has the details of what the Russian Navy is doing off the coast of Russian occupied Crimea:

As of 08:00 Monday, January 22, Russia has deployed 13 warships in the Black Sea, including two Kalibr cruise missile carriers, with a total salvo of up to 14 missiles.
That’s according to the Ukrainian Navy Command, Ukrinform reports.

Russia also retains one warship each in the Sea of Azov and the Mediterranean, with no missile carriers among them.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, as of the morning of January 21, Russia had eight warships on combat duty in the Black Sea, including a Kalibr carrier.

Mariupol:

Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

I see that Watergirl covered the news that the Senate Foreign Relations Committee had moved a bill out of that committee to allow for the US government to seize frozen Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine. A companion bill was moved out of the equivalent House committee months ago. While it is unclear if Schumer and McConnell can pull enough GOP votes to get the Senate version past the 60 vote cloture threshold, the bill is DOA in the House. It will never be brought to the floor for an up or down vote. It will die somewhere between the House Foreign Relations Committee and the House Rules Committee. Senator Cardin gets an A for effort and enthusiasm. Unfortunately, this will never become law.

Which brings us to what I think this is a very good question:

Illia Ponomarenko has some thoughts on the matter:

 

This chronic lack of resolve, leadership, and strategic vision will bury the free world.

Systemic fear of responsibility and historical decisions, trying to hold on to the comfort zone as hard as possible — this is why we are where we are now. And the free world is at its weakest throughout the entire post-1991 era.

That’s the endless procrastination, security escapism, and over-compromising at any cost (upon someone else).

It’s painful to realize that in February 2022, much of the Western decision-making elite was generally ready to come to terms with Russia’s complete takeover of Ukraine, which seemed hardly preventable. But a lot of things on the Russian side suddenly went very wrong.

Ukraine unexpectedly (for some) prevailed at the Battle of Kyiv and effectively derailed the central axis of Russia’s blitzkrieg.

The ‘special military operation’ failed, and Russia’s full-scale, protracted war on Ukraine followed. And as you know, the entire history of the war is Ukraine and its friends beating their heads against the wall of the ‘don’t-provoke-Putin’ attitude.

Again and again. It started working only as late as springtime and summertime 2022, when the Battle of Donbas was at its horrific peak and when it became apparent that Russia was not stopping and Ukraine was not going down just like that.

First, it’s tank killers, then artillery, then armored vehicles, radars, ammo, rocket systems, radars, tanks, air & missile defense, now it’s F-16. And with every single weapon and hardware class and type, there has been generally the very same scheme:

1. “Ukraine will never get X and Y, that’s a major escalation, that’s too complicated and too expensive for Ukraine to use”
2. Months-long deliberations, denial, and discussions
3. Ukraine eventually ends up getting X and Y many months late and demonstrates outstanding results on battlefields
4. Russian ‘red lines’ end up being empty threats, and Russia’s military gets a painful punch in the gut
5. *repeat with another weapon*

Do I need to tell the story of a handful of HIMARS systems that effectively derailed Russia’s frontline logistics and its late summer 2022 campaign? Do I need to remind anyone how long Ukraine was denied getting MIM-104 Patriot systems that are now demonstrating the most excellent results in their entire operational history?

Again and again, with every weapon type and class that Ukraine asked for, there was the need to break through the obsession with “escalation management” (that was again and again proven totally inconsistent) and move forward.

With all due respect to President Biden (who has done a lot for Ukraine!), when POTUS spends more than a year saying no and then eventually gives up to the green light on European F-16s for Ukraine and authorizes the transfer of just 20 outdated ATACMS missiles (that nonetheless immediately wipe out key Russian airfields) – that doesn’t look like a way to resolve the problem.

And that’s in the middle of the worst European war since Adolf Hitler in which Ukraine defends itself against one of the world’s biggest military powers with one of the world’s biggest military budgets.

Things have gone pretty absurd by now.

As a result of Ukraine’s successful campaigns in 2022, we all were too quick to optimistically declare that “Putin has already lost,” that what needed to be done had been done, and that the worst European war since Adolf Hitler would somehow go away.

In reality, endless deliberations and obsessive 5D chess to save Putin’s ass from falling entirely into Chinese hands effectively saved the Kremlin from a proper and resolute military defeat in Ukraine that could have disabled the Kremlin from new acts of aggression for decades to come.

Putin was given almost two years to recover from his disastrous early failure. The Kremlin rebooted its economy, adapted it to international sanctions, found new markets to sell gas and oil on, relaunched its military production industry, and made an alliance with Iran and North Korea to get drones, missiles, and ammo and replenish its emptied Soviet stocks. And you know what?

They ended up being very fine with this war. Russian people, being what it is, are silent or widely supportive. The poor and destitute are happy to kill Ukrainians and die for an equivalent of a U.S. blue-collar salary.

The rich and powerful are now having a cut in the giant black hole of budget spending that any war is, and entire Russian industries are thriving thanks to a massive war. Nobody gives a shit about Russia’s insane loss of life not seen since World War II.

From the Western side, we have a historically unique situation. Not a single American or European soldier now has to die in the worst European war since Adolf Hitler. Western defense industries have prospects for gargantuan, long-term contracts to support Ukraine in war and its subsequent post-war defense development.

Ukraine, having as little as it has, demonstrates outstanding battlefield results thanks to the exceptional heroism and dedication of its military. Ukraine asks for money and arms to deal with the greatest European security threat of the 21st century all alone.

But no, the free world keeps impeding itself and fearing getting out of its long-ingrained comfort zone.

And yeah – while the West is just dreaming of getting back to normal, Russia’s propaganda meta-world is having a full-scale war on the entire West. Try and watch Russian TV for five minutes if you don’t trust me.

The Kremlin has recovered from the initial shock of the early setback in Ukraine and has made this “civilization war with the West” a cornerstone of its ideology. It’s now their foremost instrument of holding power over Russia.

They’re not landing on the Moon, or building a quantum computer, or making Russia home to the world’s top five universities. They’ve been investing billions for decades to propagate hatred, revanchism, Soviet Stalinism, domination, and territorial expansion based on “taking what’s ours.”

Poor, destitute, and revenge-seeking, Russia gets back to the state of the besieged fortress of Eurasia that will always be at war with Oceania. They need triumphant victories over the heinous West that owes it everything, they need “new territories” (even in the form of senselessly desolated cities turned into mass graves, you know).

They need war as such.

So of course, why would Moscow want a real ‘ceasefire’ and ‘peace’ in Ukraine at the present status quo — if they obviously see that they can intimidate and wear out the West into giving up on Ukraine completely?

As @FRHoffmann1 very correctly points out, Russia’s main conclusion behind this war is that the West is critically short of resolve.

The Kremlin quite expectedly sees weakness in this endless drama over the Ukraine aid. That’s a pleasant invitation for more aggression because this works. What they’ve seen and are seeing makes them believe NATO will very likely back off first for the sake of a short-living illusion of its peace of mind and safety.

And yeah, they basically don’t even need to reinstate their military power decimated by Ukraine — seeing how weak the West may be, they know that nuclear threats and blackmailing may work.

And yeah, again, there will be a lot of galaxy brans yelling “Send not a single rifle round to Tallinn/Riga/Vilnius/Chishinau/Helsinki/Warsaw and roll back to 1997/1989/1945/1913 for peace!!”

This reminds me of a situation in which a sick person continuously ignores his or her increasingly dangerous symptoms. Until he or she just can’t anymore. Or until it’s too late.

Support my work: https://buymeacoffee.com/saintanger

Here’s the thread that he’s referring to via the Thread Reader App:

In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here’s why 👇 1/20Image
One common mistake in analyzing the threat posed by Russia is falling into the trap of ‘mirror-imaging’. This means assuming that Russia views a potential conflict with us in the same way we view a potential conflict with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. 2/20 
In addition, it is important to be cautious about extrapolating too many lessons from Ukraine & assuming that a war with 🇷🇺 would unfold in a similar manner, albeit on a larger scale. In reality, a war between NATO & Russia would likely take on a different form altogether. 3/20 
🇷🇺 does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war with NATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine & for which we are primarily preparing. Already before taking substantial losses on the 🇺🇦 battlefield, 🇷🇺 knew that it would be inferior in such a scenario. 4/20 
Russian thinking on a war with NATO revolves around the concept of escalation control and escalation management. Russia’s primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively manage escalation and bring the war to an early end on terms that are favorable to Russia. 5/20 
Terminating hostilities early is necessary, given that 🇷🇺 must secure a victorous outcome before NATO’s conventional superiority comes to bear, most notably that of the United States. Two key concepts play a crucial role: de-escalation strikes and aggressive sanctuarization. 6/20 
Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into submission by signaling the ability to inflict progressively greater amounts of damage. 7/20 
This would entail, in particular, long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on. The message to NATO governments: Don’t come to the support of your Eastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer. 8/20 
Simultaneously, Russia would extend its nuclear umbrella over any NATO territory it managed to capture in an initial assault. This sends a second message: Any endeavor to retake that territory, particularly by external NATO forces (USA), will result in nuclear escalation. 9/20 
The psychological fear of escalation, which may ultimately result in unacceptable damage, is supposed to open the door for negotiations about the future of NATO and the security architecture in Europe – of course, on Russia’s terms. 10/20 
This type of warfighting scenario is not a contest of forces, but primarily a risk-taking competition. The question becomes: Who will be the first to back down when confronted with the prospect of largescale war, including potential exchanges of strategic nuclear warheads? 11/20 
As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolve; i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even as risks are increasing. 12/20 
This is why Russia pursues this type of strategy. Russia does not need to match NATO’s conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amid mounting psychological pressure due to a lack of resolve, Russia can walk away with a victory. 13/20 
Here’s the thing: The ongoing war in Ukraine is teaching Russia a crucial lesson – that the West lacks resolve. Domestic disunity and endless discussions about escalation only reinforce Russia’s belief that NATO will back down when push comes to shove. 14/20 
This means Russia does not have to wait until its conventional power is reconstituted. Scenarios where we have 5-10 years to rearm following the end of the war are way too optimistic, in my opinion. 15/20 
I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk that Russia is going to challenge us, sooner rather than later. 16/20 
NATO must credibly deny Russia the ability to seize any substantial part of NATO territory or to threaten strikes against NATO critical infrastructure. This is needed to escape the coercive conundrum that aggressive sancturization and de-escalation strikes pose. 17/20 
We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with 🇷🇺 but also about how to fight one. Are we prepared to retaliate against Russian critical civilian infrastructure in case Russia strikes ours first? How do we react to Russian nuclear first use? 18/20 
Our lack of preparedness, both in the physcial space but also in terms of our cognitive ability to think through these scenarios, is encouraging 🇷🇺. Since 2014, Russian intellectuals have debated extensively and publicly how to win a war against NATO. Where is our debate? 19/20 
What we need, especially in Europe, is whole-of-society effort to get our affairs in order. There’s no denying that this will come with a significant cost, but I fail to see any other viable option. Considering worst-case scenarios, as we should, time has already run out. 20/20

That’s enough for tonight.

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First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

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♬ оригінальний звук – Vitalik

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

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Open thread!

Reader Interactions

47Comments

  1. 1.

    Gin & Tonic

    If they had 65 UA POW’s in Belgorod, why would they put them on a plane to take them to Ukraine? The border is only about 50 clicks away, and there’s no chance UA would allow the aircraft into its territory anyway. If there were 65 Ukrainian POW’s on the plane, why did russia immediately call for an emergency UNSC meeting? Something is way off in this story.

    What’s probably most disturbing is how many “legitimate” news outlets immediately ran with russia’s version of the story, with no skepticism or “allegedly” weasel words.

  4. 4.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Gin & Tonic: Yep. Also, there’s some question that the flight # being given is correct. Based on the flight tracker, there’s no way the flight with the # Russia provided could make it from the vicinity of Cyprus to Belgorod in two hours.

  6. 6.

    Alison Rose

    700 days for a 3-day war. He remains a master strategist.

    Even if they can’t match what we were doing, and ought to still be doing, I do appreciate seeing other countries making it clear that they won’t turn away.

    “Source: Deutschlandfunk” — Also nice to see German dance clubs providing important info.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    Sergej Sumlenny, LL.M
    @sumlenny
    8h
    A technical THREAD on today’s destruction of a Russian #IL76 military cargo plane, why Russia pushes the topic of Ukrainian POWs, and how this story is an impotence symptom for our Western media.
    1) There is no reason to believe there were Ukrainian POWs on board of IL-76. /1

    https://nitter.net/sumlenny/status/1750172436996255984#m

    Apparently, the flights source was Syria, and it was heading north from Belogrod when it was shot down.

    So yeah, the ruZZians are lying again.

    As always, thank you Adam.

  10. 10.

    Jay

    @Gin & Tonic:

    What’s probably most disturbing is how many “legitimate” news outlets immediately ran with russia’s version of the story, with no skepticism or “allegedly” weasel words.

    Yup.

  12. 12.

    Yarrow

    Saw this earlier today.

    General Sir Patrick Sanders will warn the Government of the need to “mobilise” the public if the UK goes to war with Russia, The Telegraph reports.

    Sir Patrick wants British men and women to be prepared to fight if Nato goes to war with Russia, who have gained the upper hand in its invasion of Ukraine.

    It follows a warning by a senior Nato official that the West faces all-out war with Russia within 20 years.

    Meanwhile, Sweden, who is preparing to enter the Nato alliance later this year, has also warned its citizens it could soon be fighting in all-out war.

    The country’s defence minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin recently told citizens: “The world is facing a security outlook with greater risks than at any time since the end of the Second World War.

    “Are you a private individual? Have you considered whether you have time to join a voluntary defence organisation? If not: get moving!”

    Mr Bohlin’s words have sparked a rush to join volunteer organisations and are said to have increased sales of torches and battery-powered radios.

  13. 13.

    Carlo Graziani

    Hoffmann is off his rocker. If Russian national strategy is really what he believes it to be, then it is operating in “The Mouse That Roared” territory. Being willing to out-risk one’s opponent might be a viable strategy in a situation of near-parity, although it would still manifest a will to suicide in a nuclear-armed scenario. But in a situation where the West overmatches Russia militarily by a very large margin, it is an idiotic strategy, which merely invites military humiliation.

    I understand, and approve of, calls to establish more secure deterrence. But these scenaria are imbecilic, to the extent of actually damaging the arguments for accelerated upgunning.

  14. 14.

    wjca

    they destroyed three russian Tu-22M3 bombers in the deep rear of the enemy

    Delighted to see this.  I have been wishing that there was some way to take down these Russian bombers.  Wishing, but thinking it wasn’t really feasible.   So glad to see that the Ukrainians have once again shown just how amazing they are.

  15. 15.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    Hoffman’s not off his rocker.

    ruZZia has been taking a bite here, a bite there and creating frozen conflicts, left, right and center,

    and has been sucessful.

  17. 17.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Jay: Read what he’s actually writing. He believes that individual members of NATO could be picked off and brought under Russian dominance by a strategy that amounts to playing chicken, using encroachments backed by nuclear threats. That is 100% bullshit.

    The Soviet Union, which was approximately an order of magnitude more powerful than Russia, never dared play this kind of game in Europe, for good and sufficient reasons. But you think Putinist Russia could pull it off, and profit from it?

    Bullshit. Putinist Russia would end, if they really tried it.

  20. 20.

    Bill Arnold

    @Carlo Graziani:
    Re that, I laughed at Wikipedia’s sample numerical payoff matrix for a game of chicken.
    ————-Swerve      Straight
    Swerve      0,0            -1,+1
    Straight     +1,-1        -1000,-1000

    The extended Bertrand Russell quote comparing games of chicken by young delinquents with nuclear brinksmanship played by eminent statesmen is also good.

    Russian doctrine is weird and involves a lot of psychology, though. How much of it is messaging directed at the West is not entirely clear.

  21. 21.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:   The Soviet Union did play this kind of game, or something very like it, in 1962.

    One result of this was that the Politburo established that it, and not the General Secretary (Khrushchev) was the ultimate authority, and proceeded to fire his ass.  Which, I think, was all to the good- dictatorship by committee is going to be much more rational than dictatorship by a single man.   Subsequent Soviet governments were far more rational and never risked nuclear war again.

    I am very concerned that putin is less rational than Khrushchev, and even less rational than Stalin

    ETA:  This is intended as dialog, not an attack.  I have tremendous respect for your posts.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic: Seriously? If, say, Russia extended its military power to exert claims on Estonia, say, or Poland?

    That would be like Kazakhstan asserting territorial claims over Russian territory. It’s so lopsided that it’s laughable. The consequences would be calamitous for the initiating party.

  24. 24.

    Jay

    @Carlo Graziani:

    ruZZia has suborned Hungary, grabbed chunks of Georgia, neutered Serbia, has chunks of Moldova, almost captured Germany and France via the far Reich, Italy, etc.

    In the Baltic States, Little Green Men alongside “ruZZian ” speakers could seize areas and neuter them as well, which is why many of the Baltic States are sealing their borders with ruZZia and belaruZZia.

    It is constant attacks on many front’s, from cyber to energy.

  25. 25.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Andrya: (I never assume “attacks.”)

    I believe that the “irrational actor” model is overused, and needs to be retired. Stalin himself, who was probably clinically paranoid, never acted irrationally in his international policy. Iranian leaders, often cited as “irrational,” appear to respond to their political circumstances in ways completely consistent with rationality.

    “Irrational,” in this context, appears mainly to be used in the sense of “undeterred by suicidal risk.” I can’t think of a single state—or state leader—from the past Century to whom this description applies. A counterexample might actually have burned the world to a cinder during the Cold War. Even Khrushev behaved as expected, once Kennedy properly understood his motives and his exit ramps.

    Insofar as Putin is concerned, I continue to believe that “Psychotically Zealous Russian Nationalist” is a terrible model for understanding his decisions. It leaves out the “Mob Boss” aspect of his leadership, which in my opinion is more likely controlling. And mob bosses value their own survival above all else.

  29. 29.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:   If you set Hitler’s anti-Semitism aside, putin’s thinking strikes me as remarkably similar to Hitler’s.

    Both are under the influence of what the French call an “idee fixe” which they are completely unable/unwilling to question.  Hitler, under the influence of his “idee fixe” took what appear to a rational person as insane gambles.  (Declaring war on the US December 11, 1941?  When FDR had been unable to finagle a US declaration of war on Germany after Pearl Harbor?  What was Hitler thinking?)

    Making things more dangerous, putin appears to believe in a warped form of religion, where he believes he is executing G-d’s will.

    If (G-d forbid) TIFG is re-elected, TIFG would first, cut off all Ukraine aid and “order” Ukraine to submit to russia, and second, make it clear that NATO gets no, repeat no, US support.  At that point their are only two nuclear powers in NATO, the UK and France.  putin has already messed with the British political system to bring about Brexit.  putin might quite credibly believe that, if he invaded Estonia or Finland (he considers both part of the “Rusky Mir” the remains of NATO would fold when faced with nuclear blackmail.

    Another similarity to Hitler.  putin is clearly determined to fight this to the end, not because russia needs to do so, but because admitting defeat would end his regime.  (And anyone who overthrows putin is going to kill him ASAP- wouldn’t you, if you overthrew putin?)  Thus, if putin had to face losing a war, thus facing disgrace and execution, I’d expect him to quite possibly issue an order to launch the nukes- similar to Hitler, in 1945, issuing the “Nero Decree”.

  30. 30.

    Alison Rose

    I clicked on this link from FB about as fast as is humanly possible: War cats: Ukraine enlists feline friends in fight against russia

    Wars are fought by soldiers using bullets, shells and missiles, but also with ideas and propaganda — which explains why cats have become the latest battlefront in Ukraine.

    Ukraine’s social media are full of felines, showing how they help soldiers as emotional support animals, attract donations to the military with their fluffy cuteness, and also fight invaders — in this case mice.

    Photos and bios of various specific kitties :) The article also notes that russia has been trying to do the same, although you will never convince me that the orcs don’t just eat the cats after the photos are taken.

  32. 32.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:  Since my last post took a while to write, I didn’t have the benefit of your comment #25.

    About Stalin-  what was irrational was his faith that Germany would not invade.  Historian Stephen Kotkin (whom I recommend, by the way) said that up to the time of the invasion, the USSR was shipping war supplies to Germany hoping to buy them off.  Winston Churchill, in his history of the Second World War, wrote that the British ambassador to the USSR was BEGGING  Stalin to read “Mein Kampf” – saying “He put it all in his book!  He said Germany must invade you!”.  Stalin would not listen.

    I’ll be up for the future beer fest too, but it will have to be wine for me- I hate beer.

  34. 34.

    wjca

    @Carlo Graziani: “Irrational,” in this context, appears mainly to be used in the sense of “undeterred by suicidal risk.”  . . . .

    Insofar as Putin is concerned, I continue to believe that “Psychotically Zealous Russian Nationalist” is a terrible model for understanding his decisions. It leaves out the “Mob Boss” aspect of his leadership, which in my opinion is more likely controlling. And mob bosses value their own survival above all else.

    Perhaps a better take on Putin is that he does not see his actions as involving a suicidal risk.  Even though, in some cases, we do very much see it that way.  So, not so much psychotic as having a very skewed perception of risks.

  35. 35.

    Another Scott

    @Andrya: Didn’t Germany and Japan have some sort of mutual defense pact?

    Gotta be careful about the friends one picks …

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  36. 36.

    Andrya

    @Alison Rose:   I respectfully disagree.  In no way was I minimizing the horror of Hitler’s genocidal anti-Semitism- which, as well as being horrifically evil, was also irrational, and contributed to Germany’s defeat in WW2.  (Among many other factors, a significant number of world class nuclear scientists on the Manhattan project- Niels Bohr, Enrico Fermi, Leo Szilard, Edward Teller, and Aage Bohr- had fled Europe because they were either Jewish, partial Jewish ancestry, or married to a Jewish woman.  Nazi Germany was left with exactly one world class nuclear physicist- Heisenberg, so he had to work alone.  If indeed he did work on a German nuclear bomb- that is disputed to this day.)

    My intent was to use both Hitler and Stalin as models to analyze how irrational putin is likely to be.  For that specific, limited purpose, I had to set aside Hitler’s genocidal anti-Semitism, not because it doesn’t matter, but because it’s irrelevant to Stalin and putin.  Stalin was anti-Semitic, but not genocidally so, and as far as I know putin is not particularly anti-Semitic.

  38. 38.

    Andrya

    @Another Scott:   Germany, Italy, and Japan signed the “Tripartite Pact” in 1940,  in which they  recognized each other’s spheres of influence and pledged to assist one another if attacked.  My understanding is that Mussolini tried to weasel on the basis that the US hadn’t attacked Japan, Japan had attacked the US at Pearl Harbor.  Germany could have taken the same weasel, but chose to declare war on the US.

    My understanding is that Germany and Italy didn’t coordinate with Japan, and vice versa.  I believe that Japan did not even warn the Germans ahead of time re: Pearl Harbor.

    If any amateur (or non-amateur) historians can add to this, I’ll be grateful.  I’m teaching a community college class “Math for Liberal Arts Students” Spring semester, and I’m planning to include the US cryptographers cracking the Japanese codes, as well as Alan Turing’s teams cracking the German codes.  Extra stuff is always welcome!

  40. 40.

    Anoniminous

    Neurobiologists have known since the 1990s a Rational Actor, like the Easter Bunny, Tooth Fairy, and Santa Claus, doesn’t exist.  Damasio’s 1995 book Descarte’s Error gives a popular account of the then known science.  Further research has confirmed and expanded the Damasios findings.

  41. 41.

    ColoradoGuy

    We don’t know the degree of control the KGB/FSB has over the Republican Party. Surely the CIA knows, but they’re not telling us. But Putin probably has a reasonable grasp of how effective their Kompromat program has been over the previous decades.

    Putin’s program for European re-conquest undoubtedly hinges on both control of the GOP and influence on FoxNews and other fascist-allied news organizations. Without that 24/7 news bubble, the puppet strings to MAGA are cut, and the mass hallucination fades away (over time). The US influence operation has its limits, but I’d say it’s the most successful operation the KGB/FSB has ever had.

  42. 42.

    Odie Hugh Manatee

    @Gin & Tonic:

    Yup. Never dismiss the fact that people who are paid to talk will do just that and not much else. I think it’s possible that NATO might hesitate to respond if Putin were to successfully invade and take over Estonia with a lightning attack. Rooting them out is a whole lot more difficult than preventing the invasion in the first place.

    Prepare for war and hope it doesn’t come to that. This is Ruzzia, not a rational country with civic minded people running it. They are monsters and have no problem telling you that you are actually the monster for opposing them. They have little to no regard for life and are not to be trusted.

    Adding to the “Thanks, Adam!” I read these every single night and I appreciate the informative updates.

  43. 43.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Carlo Graziani: What Hoffmann describes is reminiscent of Mao’s strategy for the PRC between the Sino-Soviet split & the Sino-US détente, & it was executed from a position of extraordinary weakness in relation to either superpower at the time. Like Putin today, Mao’s foreignly policy was to sow chaos that undermined both the Western led & the Soviet led orders. Mao certainly believed he was acting rationally, & in some ways he was, by demonstrating superiority in the balance of resolve, despite severe disadvantages in the balance of power, by making both the USSR & the US believe he was not afraid to sacrifice hundreds millions of Chinese lives in a nuclear war.

    Utterly cynical & irresponsible leadership, led to the PRC’s isolation (barring parts of the newly decolonized countries in Africa, & eccentrics such as Albania), but sometimes effective. He brushed off US nuclear threats during the 1st & the 2nd Taiwan Strait Crisis, despite not having nukes & not enjoying a Soviet nuclear umbrella. He brushed off the Soviet nuclear threats during the border clashes w/ the USSR. He ignored both Soviet & Western support for India during the border clash of 1962. He fomented revolutions across SE Asia & farther afield in S. Asia, Africa,  & LatAm.

    The risk is that Putin could definitely miscalculate NATO resolve, or at least doubt it enough to probe w/ bayonet & see what he could get away w/. & once he decides to probe w/ bayonet, he would need to be beaten back, but there is always the danger of things getting out of hand. He can certainly be reckless (from the perspective other than Putin’s) in taking risks. Believe me, I do not enjoy typing these words. As a rule, I am extremely skeptical & critical of the tendency from the US foreign policy “Blob” to inflate threats, ascribe irrationality to rivals, see the world as zero sum, constantly chasing the “credibility” pony & throwing out “deterrence” every other word, all in service of ever more bloated military spending/natsec state, & to sustain US primacy, & in the meantime creating fertile grounds for reactionary/nativist authoritarianism.

    However, Putin has shown that he would take risks that even the Kim Dynasty in NK or the Mullahs in Iran would not take. Up until the day Putin re-invaded Ukraine, I had always thought Adam’s warnings about Putin bordered on the obsessively alarmist. I think events have proven Adam mostly right on Putin.

  44. 44.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: The risk is that Putin could definitely miscalculate NATO resolve, or at least doubt it enough to probe w/ bayonet & see what he could get away w/. & once he decides to probe w/ bayonet, he would need to be beaten back

    And what is the invasion of Ukraine (like taking Crimea, like the invasion of Georgia) but another probe with a bayonet?

  45. 45.

    Chris

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    However, Putin has shown that he would take risks that even the Kim Dynasty in NK or the Mullahs in Iran would not take.

    The USSR would have been terrified to engage in something like the 2016 election fuckery.

    There are degrees of rationality, but I’d have to agree that Putin is, at minimum, more on the aggressive/risk-taking side than possibly any Soviet leader was.

  46. 46.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Chris: The USSR never had such an opportunity as in 2016 (or more specifically since 2008), where one of the two major political parties made itself available for influence & confluence of interests/values. Stalin’s non-aggression pact w/ Nazi Germany pretty much demoralized & marginalized Communists & sympathizers, & discredited the USSR as a vessel to advance anti-Fascism or anti-Nazism. There was a brief respite during WW II, but during the Cold War skepticism to enmity (of varying degrees) toward the USSR prevailed across the political spectrum in the US.

    I think any Soviet leader would have loved the opportunity to influence US domestic politics in the way Putin has managed. They did covertly sponsor political movements & organizations in Western Europe.

    OTOH, no Soviet leader could conceive of probing NATO w/ bayonets. At least not after the Berlin Airlift & the Cuban Missile Crisis.

  47. 47.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Incredible reporting from Mekomit in Israel (in Hebrew), highlighted & translated by Yuval Abraham of +972 Magezine:

    Israeli intelligence secretly surveilled officials in Gaza’s Health Ministry to check if their data on the number of civilians killed in Gaza is ‘reliable’, Israeli intelligence sources told us. The army found the numbers are reliable and now regularly uses them internally in intelligence briefings. According to two sources, Israeli intelligence has no good independent measure of the total number of civilians the army killed in Gaza, making the Health Ministry’s data their main source of information. One reason for this is that officers conducted hundreds of AI-directed assassination strikes against suspected low-level Hamas operatives, usually by destroying entire homes and killing entire families – a practice we previously termed a ‘mass assassination factory’. There was often no bomb damage assessment (BDA) for these strikes, meaning there was no check on who and how many civilians were killed. This routine post-strike check was skipped to ‘save time’. ‘I don’t know how many people I killed as collateral damage. We only check that information for senior Hamas targets,’ one source said. ‘In other cases I didn’t care. I immediately moved on to the next target. The focus was on creating as many targets as quickly as possible. That’s why I trust the Health Ministry in Gaza more than the IDF for these statistics. The army just doesn’t have the information.’

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