Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

When do the post office & the dmv weigh in on the wuhan virus?

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

People are complicated. Love is not.

Washington Post’s Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

It looks like winning debates is a black job!

“I never thought they’d lock HIM up,” sobbed a distraught member of the Lock Her Up Party.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

The choice is between normal and crazy.

They think we are photo bombing their nice little lives.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

We won’t go back.

We know you aren’t a Democrat but since you seem confused let me help you.

The revolution will be supervised.

I was promised a recession.

Our job is not to persuade republicans but to defeat them.

Never forget that he train is barreling down on Trump, even as he dances on the tracks.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 707: Another Significant POW Exchange & We Need To Talk About Civil-Military Relations

War for Ukraine Day 707: Another Significant POW Exchange & We Need To Talk About Civil-Military Relations

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Screen shot of a mural of an eye shedding a tear/crying. The upper eyelid is painted in the blue of Ukraine's flag. The lower eyelid is painted in the yellow of Ukraine's flag. The mural was painted by the artist MyDogSighs.

(Image by My Dog Sighs)

The Ukrainians did a significant POW exchange with the Russians today.

 

Today, 207 Ukrainian defenders returned home from the russian captivity.

Defenders of Mariupol, “Azovstal”, Zmiinyi Island, warriors from the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kherson and Sumy directions.

We will never leave our people behind! We will return all of them 🇺🇦

The former Azov Commander:

Another prisoner exchange took place today, with 207 Ukrainian servicemen returning home. I am happy for everyone who has regained their freedom and wish them a swift recovery.

I sincerely congratulate two fighters of the 12th Brigade Azov of the National Guard of Ukraine on their release from enemy captivity, who, after the Azov unit was expanded from a regiment to a brigade, became part of our military family. However, my joy over their return is overshadowed by the fact that the families of the soldiers who held the defense of Mariupol as part of the Azov regiment will not see their loved ones’ names on the lists once again. In all the exchanges since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the names of my comrades have appeared only a few times. Although it has been more than a year and a half since the order to cease the defense of Mariupol was issued.

More than 900 Azov soldiers remain in Russian captivity, who held the defense of Mariupol with dignity and for 86 days did not allow the enemy to timely transfer forces and means to advance towards Zaporizhzhia.

We are fighting hard against the invaders in the forests of Kreminna, destroying and capturing Russian servicemen, and we continue to believe that the relevant authorities are making sufficient efforts to free our heroes. I am grateful to every Ukrainian who remembers their heroism and fights for their freedom.

You’ll notice there’s been no more word out of Russia, let alone actual evidence provided, about their claim that 65 Ukrainian POWs were killed last week when that IL-26 went down of Belgorod.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Today we managed to free another 207 Ukrainians from Russian captivity, returning a total of 3,035 people; we will do everything to bring everyone back – address by the President of Ukraine

31 January 2024 – 16:04

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have some good news to share. This is the kind of news we are all waiting for. Today we managed to free another two hundred and seven Ukrainians from Russian captivity. One hundred and eighty privates and sergeants. Twenty-seven officers. Almost half of them are defenders of Mariupol. Warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, units of the State Border Guard Service and the National Police. Two hundred and seven guys will soon be home with their families. Two hundred and seven families are already happy. I am sure the guys are already calling home, and have heard the most important words already. I am happy that we are succeeding in this.

This is already the fiftieth exchange during the full-scale war. In total, we managed to return three thousand thirty-five people. And we will do everything to bring back each and every one of them. We have not forgotten about anyone. We are looking for every single surname.

I would like to thank our entire team engaged in this work. Kyrylo Budanov. Andriy Yermak. Vasyl Maliuk. Dmytro Usov. Ihor Klymenko. Dmytro Lubinets. I am grateful to everyone who helps. We often heard at different moments that it would not work. When you know what to do, everything works out, even things that may seem impossible to some. Ukraine knows how to achieve its goals!

Glory to Ukraine!

Germany:

We are grateful to our German friends for their steadfast support. Assisting Ukraine in its fight against the aggressors is an investment in Europe’s future peace and stability.
A new military aid package from Germany includes:
◾️3 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️1 Beaver bridge-laying tank
◾️24 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️4 BV206 tracked all-terrain vehicles
◾️IRIS-T SLS missiles
◾️14 mine ploughs
◾️1 naval mine clearance system
◾️1 Satcom surveillance system
◾️4 border protection vehicles
◾️1,040 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️450 snow chains
◾️194,000 single module group rations

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Meanwhile, in the GOP majority House of Representatives in Washington, DC:

The EU isn’t doing much better:

The Financial Times has published the letter the EU leaders have written calling for a long term commitment to Ukraine:

Ukraine’s will to fight persists and serves as an inspiration to all of us who cherish freedom and justice. But crucial problems loom: Ukraine has insufficient amounts of artillery ammunition. And commitments for military support risk falling short of Ukraine’s needs.

At the beginning of last year, the EU committed itself to an ambitious goal of supplying Ukraine with 1mn artillery rounds before the end of March 2024. The hard truth: we have fallen short of this goal.

But we can’t just give up on our promise. If Ukrainian soldiers are to keep up the fight, the need for ammunition is overwhelming. And the EU member states’ delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is more important than ever.

The EU and its member states have been strong supporters of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And with tangible success: Russia has not been able to achieve any of its goals in the war it started. But our efforts must not wither.

We must renew our resolve and redouble our efforts in order to ensure that we sustain our support for as long as it takes. What is urgent today is to provide the ammunition and weapon systems, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs and air defence, that Ukraine so urgently needs on the ground. Now. Because new orders we place today will only reach the battlefield by next year. We must therefore insist on finding ways to accelerate the delivery of the promised artillery rounds to Ukraine. It can be through donation of existing stocks or joint procurement of ammunition through our defence industries. This requires expanding industrial capacities in Europe through framework procurement contracts and sustainable investments by member states. Partner countries could play an important role as well and are invited to join in our collective effort.

The ways are less important. The ends and means are critical. The signatories to this letter have already co-operated on donations to Ukraine, including the delivery of main battle tanks, howitzers, artillery ammunition and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine. We will continue to explore all options and invite allies and partners to co-fund initiatives.

Our ability to continue to support and sustain Ukraine’s defence, both during the winter and in the longer term, is decisive. In fact, it is a matter of our common European security, and for the brave women and men of the Ukrainian armed forces a question of life and death.

The EU and its member states must renew their efforts and step up their military support. The burden is so great that all states need to do everything they can to support Ukraine — it must continue to be a collective effort.

We call on friends and partners of Ukraine to recommit to sustainable long-term military support for Ukraine as a joint European responsibility. This decision must be taken by each and every country. Only then will Ukraine be able to succeed in its defence against Russian aggression.

Russia doesn’t wait for anybody and we need to act now. If Ukraine loses, the long-term consequences and costs will be much higher for all of us. We Europeans have a special responsibility. Therefore, we must act. Europe’s future depends on it.

Olaf Scholz
Chancellor of Germany

Mette Frederiksen
Prime minister of Denmark

Petr Fiala
Prime minister of the Czech Republic

Kaja Kallas
Prime minister of Estonia

Mark Rutte
Prime minister of the Netherlands

 

Here’s a response from the head of the Servant of the People Party, which is the political party President Zelenskyy belongs to.

The harsh truth is that the promised 1 million EU shells for #Ukraine did not materialize. Therefore, with all due respect, “support for as long as it takes” should be replaced by “support as effectively as it is needed right now.” This is not a matter of slogans, but of Europe’s readiness to defend itself.

Given the news and reporting around President Zelenskyy’s intention to replace General Zaluzhnyi, we need to talk about civil-military relations.

From The Kyiv Post:

Support for Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny is close to universal among troops and a possible plan of President Volodymyr Zelensky to replace him, if it exists, is dangerous to national security and the war effort, soldiers recently interviewed by Kyiv Post said.

Several fighters suggested the Ukrainian president was, with possible Zaluzhny replacement plans, placing his and his government’s popularity with voters ahead of national security.

Frustration with civilian politicians, either ignorant of or not caring about difficult conditions faced by front line soldiers, was a common theme among the total of ten service members interviewed on Wednesday.

All were long-term Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) service members either deployed to the front lines or recently returned from forward operations and known to Kyiv Post for months and in some instances years.

Almost all were men aged 20-45 with at least a year of combat experience. Most had fought on multiple fronts. Ranks ranged from private to captain.

In most cases Kyiv Post interviewed the AFU service members by messenger app or telephone. Interviewees identified themselves but asked their names not be published in order to speak freely. Kyiv Post respected the requests.

In one case a soldier refused even to speak on background because, he said, even the mention of Zaluzhny’s possible ouster in public would assist Russian Federation propaganda.

Timur, a Special Operation Forces operator, said that were Zaluzhny actually replaced, it probably would not affect soldier morale substantially, and that in any case the war would go on. Zaluzhny and his aggressive tactics against Russian forces are popular with troops, he said.

“I don’t think that this situation with Zaluzhny has a strong effect on the fighters at the front,” said Timur. “And I don’t think that with the help of this situation it’s possible to put pressure on the military at the front. There’s no panic. People understand that there’s a war going on, and it’s going on at all levels. The information war has been going on for a long time and it will continue.

“Although this situation may affect some. But for my people, for my unit, I can say that we react to it normally… Normal military personnel, including staff officers, treat him with respect… I personally don’t know of and haven’t heard from any in the military that they don’t like Zaluzhny,” Timur said.

Maksym, a reconnaissance company commander currently deployed to the Bakhmut sector, said that the men in his unit know of possible turmoil at the top of the chain of command, and that for them it would be better if Zaluzhny and his staff were left alone to fight the war without politician interference. In any case, he said, right now discussion of turnover at the top of the AFU is all rumors, he said.

“We’ve heard the reports,” Maksym said. “Maybe it’s fake news, maybe it’s not. We don’t know. For us things are the same. We have work to do. We have to fight.”

A fighter serving with a drone unit accused Zelensky and the national political leadership of intriguing behind Zaluzhny’s back and trying to advance their personal careers.

The drone operator said politicians in Kyiv have no idea of Zaluzhny’s military skill and how the war is really being fought, and talks of replacing him amount to betrayal of Ukraine’s national interests.

He continued: “At the front, soldiers think that (Zelensky Chief of Staff Andriy) Yermak is a [vulgar] and that stupid [vulgar] Zelensky is the same thing.

“As for Zaluzhny, everyone has the unanimous opinion that the army consists only of him, the infantry, the artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles. Everything else is dead weight that holds us [fighting troops] back…

“I will say this: you can replace a car, a woman, a president, even a country. But you can’t replace Zaluzhny!!!”

A representative of a partisan group operating behind Russian lines in Mariupol, through intermediaries, said that public discussion of Zaluzhny’s removal advances Russian war aims and Ukrainian officials doing that should be punished harshly.

“Whoever started this is the enemy,” said the partisan. “Politics and careerism in time of war are treason… We know that all contacts and operations (or partisan work) would not have taken place without the assistance of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. All of them [wanting Zaluzhny sacked] should go to [vulgar].”

There’s much more at the link!

Late last night YY_Sima Qian posted the link to this thread from retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan regarding what he thinks the key issues are here. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

2/ The tensions in this relationship have been apparent for some time. During my first 2023 visit to #Ukraine early last year, I was informed that Zaluzhnyi had been forbidden from speaking to the press without Presidential approval. 
3/ The lack of success in the 2023 counter-offensive, the interview by General Zaluzhnyi in @TheEconomist in late 2023, and perceptions about his presidential aspirations all appear to have built to a crescendo in the past few days. 
4/ It should be stated up front that in peace and war, tensions are always present in civil-military relationships. There is sufficient modern scholarship on this topic that demonstrates this. But, in democracies, it is an unequal dialog. The civilian leader has primacy. 
5/ If Zaluzhnyi is removed (again, not confirmed), there would be many examinations of the wreckage that got us to this point. That is not my intent here. My focus instead is on the key impacts of a possible Zaluzhnyi dismissal. I believe there are six. 
6/ Impact 1. Command of UAF. Zaluzhnyi has been a charismatic & popular leader who prepared in the weeks before the Russian large-scale invasion. He is also an intellectual leader, having written two influential articles on the trajectory of the war and Ukraine’s strategy. 
7/ He also cares deeply for the lives of his troops, and is not an overtly political general. This is not a common combination. It is what sets Zaluzhnyi apart from his peers.

Image

8/ This mix of professional competence, delegation, moral courage, intellectual humility and curiosity are vital strategic leadership traits and will be hard to replace. 
9/ Impact 2. Successive changes down the chain. A Zaluzhnyi removal would assume that a suitable replacement is found. But in every high-level appointment there are successive moves of personnel well down the chain of command. 
10/ This will be a little disruptive, but it is also what military organisations are designed for. Any change in the commander in chief will also change the fortunes of many other senior military leaders. Some will rise and some who were previously on the rise will stagnate. 
11/ Impact 3. Advice to the President. A key role of the C-in-C is military advice to the President. This will obviously change with a new C-in-C. Given Zaluzhnyi’s experience as C-in-C in this war, & qualities described above, it will take time for the new C-in-C to settle in. 
12/ Impact 4. Relationships with allies and security partners. While the Defence Minister is the primary interlocutor with foreign nations on military assistance, this is based on Zaluzhnyi’s priorities. The C-in-C maintains close links with US and NATO military chiefs. 
13/ These would have to be re-established if a new C-in-C takes over. This would take time, but would be facilitated by the enormous good will towards #Ukraine among NATO military institutions and leaders. 
14/ Impact 5. Perceptions of government instability. This is a danger area for Zelenskyy. There may be some, particularly in the US Congress, who could use a change in the C-in-C and the public fallout afterwards, as additional evidence for why they shouldn’t support #Ukraine.Image
15/ As such, the government narrative and information strategy in the wake of any removal of the C-in-C would be vital to get right. 
16/ Impact 6. Russian info operations. The Russian president is acting as if he is on the road to victory. This is a deliberate strategy to influence US Congress members, & other politicians around the world, that Russian victory is inevitable & support for Ukraine is wasted. 
17/ Any removal of Zaluzhnyi would play into this Russian strategic narrative. While the removal of the C-in-C is the prerogative of a civilian leader in any democracy, it will still come with political and strategic information costs. 
18/ Impact 7. The Future of Zaluzhnyi. The current C-in-C won’t disappear if he is sacked by Zelenskyy. While it has been reported that he has been offered alternative national security appointments, finding the right appointment for Zaluzhnyi will be difficult. 
19/ He has experience, stature, networks and leadership skills that will be difficult to reconcile with staff appointments. My sense however is that while Zaluzhnyi will not want to go, he is also first and foremost a soldier and servant of his country. 
20/ It is very likely that he will not want to make the war effort more difficult for his nation by drawing out any removal. 
21/ I won’t address presidential aspirations here. Projecting such aspirations on Zaluzhnyi without evidence is unfair to him. 
22/ The civ-mil relationship between President and C-in-C is clearly at breaking point & in a place where only 1 of 2 things can happen: 1. A significant reconciliation; or, 2. Someone has to go. In democracies, that ‘someone’ is always the senior military person. 
23/ There is an abundance of ambiguity about the next few hours and days in this civil-military crisis in #Ukraine. Like many, I am a huge admirer of General Zaluzhnyi and the stellar leadership he has provided to the Ukrainian military. 
24/ But, unfortunately, if this speculation continues he may soon reach a point of no return in his relationship with the President. That is a tragedy for #Ukraine. However, such crises are also the nature of civil-military relationships in democracies during peace and war. End.Image
25/ Thank you to the following for the insights, images and links used in this thread: @IAPonomarenko @shashj @DefenceU @CinC_AFU @KyivIndependent @reuters @olliecarroll @ChristopherJM 
Hopefully everyone noticed my (deliberate) mistake in this thread: there are 7 key impacts, not 6!!! 

MG Ryan’s assessment is very good, but I want to talk about something else. One of the hallmarks of liberal democratic states and societies is civilian control over the military. This is known as civil-military relations. Leaving aside who is actually to blame for Ukraine’s inability to make large gains in the Autumn offensive known as the 2023 counteroffensive*, properly functioning liberal democracies subordinate the military power and control of the military under the civilian head of government. Even during war time. Under this conceptualization of civil-military relations, President Zelenskyy’s intention to remove and reassign General Zaluzhnyi should not be considered out of the ordinary. Which is different than whether it is a good idea in terms of Ukraine being able to achieve its strategic objectives. Moreover, the Chief of the Armed Forces, which is the position that GEN Zaluzhnyi holds and is equivalent to the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, serves as the head of government’s senior military advisor. If the relationship between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi has deteriorated or, even worse, become dysfunctional and/or toxic, then neither of them, nor the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor Ukraine itself is being well served. Additionally, no matter how positively we all may view each of them from a distance, you don’t become president of a state nor its most senior general officer/flag officer without a certain amount of ego. And most certainly not without being or becoming an effective politician.

I do not know what the resolution of this is. I have no idea whether there’s a right and wrong, two rights, or two wrongs involved in the breakdown of this relationship. I do know that part of the bullet list US Army War College Seminar 12 short course that we would give the students on the first day included personalities matter and relationships matter. If these two personalities are no longer meshing and the relationship is deteriorating, then it is time for a change. If the concern is that GEN Zaluzhnyi is untouchable because of how the troops view him, then that is a significant problem for Ukraine in demonstrating to the EU and NATO that it is suitable for membership. I’ll leave it here for now as we watch and see how things develop over the next week or so.

* A lot of the blame for Ukraine’s inability to make large gains is the fact that its ostensible allies – the US, the EU, EU member states, NATO, and NATO member states failed to actually either provide what Ukraine needed despite having the ability to do so (the US) or to actually live up to the commitments made to provision Ukraine (the EU). Because Ukraine did not have what it needed when it needed it, Russia was able to dig in, create strategic depth for itself, and, as a result, Ukraine had to slowly bore hard wood. There was no lack of Ukrainian will. There was and still is a lack of the ways and means that Ukraine has been begging its allies to provide.

LTG Budanov, currently the Commander of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence/the HUR, as well as one potential replacement for GEN Zaluzhnyi, has some thoughts on what Ukraine needs to be successful.

From CNN:

KyivCNN — 

Aid to Ukraine is frozen in US Congress, and Kyiv could be dealing with a Trump presidency more sympathetic to Moscow. But Ukraine’s spy chief isn’t losing any sleep over the US.

“I don’t worry much about it,” Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate, told CNN in an exclusive interview in Kyiv.

Trump “is an experienced person. He has fallen many times and gotten back up again. And this is a very serious trait,” Budanov said of the former president who has made no secret of his desire to cut US support for Ukraine and whose allies in Congress are opposing efforts to authorize more aid.

In a wide-ranging interview, the military spy chief made clear Ukraine’s desperate need for more ammunition and weapons to hold back Russian assaults, even as he dismissed the risk of the US leaving Ukraine out in the cold.

“We are expecting a positive decision anyway,” Budanov said of the US debate over aid, “To say that [Trump] and the Republican Party are lovers of the Russian Federation is complete nonsense.”

Trump boasted this month on social media that he would rather trust Putin over some American intelligence officers, and famously backed the Russian leader during his presidency.

As head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, whose strength lies in intelligence-gathering and secretive special forces raids, Budanov has gained a reputation as being a man of few words but one who delivers results.

His agency has claimed notable successes, including raids on the Russian-occupied Crimea and attacks on Russian airfields, inflicting embarrassing wounds on the Kremlin.

Earlier in his career, Budanov fought and was injured on the front lines in eastern Ukraine, shortly after Russia first invaded its southern neighbor in 2014.

A figure of ire for the Kremlin, Budanov has been the target of Russian assassination at least 10 times in his career, the Ukrainians say. Late last year, they may have got close to him. His wife was hospitalized with apparent heavy metals poisoning, according to Ukrainian and western officials, in an attack that many suspected to be Russia’s doing.

Known to have strong ties with President Zelensky, the 38-year-old is seen to represent a new generation of military leaders.

At the same time, his utterances, and carefully cultivated public profile, have attracted some criticism. An enigmatic video appearance ahead of the largely stalled counteroffensive is seen now as one of several messages from Ukrainian officials that served to raise expectations too high about what Ukraine’s armed forces could achieve.

With rumors swirling that Zelensky could soon sack Valeriy Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of the army, Budanov is seen as a possible replacement. Budanov would not be drawn on the reports, saying “I personally have no conflict with anyone.”

Amid fierce Russian assaults along Ukraine’s frontlines, ammunition shortages and exhausted troops, Ukraine’s spy chief has one clear priority: more Western support.

“We really need this aid,” Budanov told CNN.

Artillery systems – howitzers – were top of the list, with Ukraine needing a “sharp increase” in the number of guns, Budanov said, regardless of their age and type, as years of fighting take their toll on Ukraine’s long-range cannons.

Ammunition is vital too, he said, as “shells are one of the most decisive factors in this war.”

“Not so much the quality as the quantity,” he added. Ukraine has never managed to outgun Russian firepower, even after Moscow turned to North Korea to keep its ammunition flowing.

CNN has seen Western-made guns supplied with smoke shells instead of high-explosive munitions in Ukrainian frontline units, as shortages hit the battlefield.

But Ukraine is holding its own in the air above the frontlines, the spy chief said. With Russia continually learning from its combat experiences, the trend is for even greater use of unmanned drones on and above Ukraine’s battlefields.

“It is precisely in unmanned systems that we are more or less equal,” Budanov said. Ukrainian social media is bursting with footage from frontline troops showing drones spying on, attacking and even capturing Russian troops, although Moscow uses many of the same tactics.

Kyiv has also stepped up long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, with explosions reported at infrastructure sites outside major cities  far from the Ukrainian border. Russian authorities claimed to have foiled dozens of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks since the new year.

But as Ukraine’s long-held hopes for F-16 jets come to fruition – with Kyiv’s pilots already training on the aircraft – Budanov echoed Ukraine’s newest request.

He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands. “This is what can really help inflict a military defeat” on Russia, he said of the aging aircraft.

Although decades old, the jet – famous for its prowess against Iraqi armor in the first Gulf War – is still lauded by its pilots and US troops, even as US Congress has looked to ax it from the US Air Force’s arsenal.

New jets may be a long shot with aid to Ukraine entangled as part of a greater compromise on US immigration policy, which has been opposed by Trump and his allies in Congress.

Budanov estimates there are more than half a million Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian territories, but does not see much potential for movement on the front lines in the short term.

But he suggested that attacks on Russian infrastructure may grow. While refusing to acknowledge Ukrainian involvement in drone attacks in Russia, he said such operations were “quite possible.”

“Hypothetically, there is a plan according to which all this happens,” he said. “And I believe that this plan includes all the major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation.”

Now, Russian civilians, he said, finally “see the real picture [of war]. They see burning oil depots, destroyed buildings in factories and plants, and so on. This is all beneficial.” he said.

On Wednesday, Ukraine and Russia exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war, in the first swap following the crash of a Russian IL-76 transport aircraft. Moscow claimed Ukraine shot down the plane, which they said was carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

In response, Budanov told CNN that Russia had provided insufficient evidence to back up their claims.

“If everything is as they say, then the first thing they should have done was to show a gruesome picture. Let’s say, the field covered with corpses. And show it to the whole world,” he said. Footage from Russian state media of the crash site, geolocated by CNN, only showed a small number of bodies around the wreckage.

Budanov was resolute in his confidence in a full victory for Ukraine over Russia, despite the public concerns over the fatigue of Ukrainian troops, Russia’s advantage in domestic military production and the lack of movement on the frontlines.

The next six months will be interesting, he said, with that period seeing the end of Russia’s ongoing push along the frontlines.

For Budanov, the war will only end one way.

“The establishment of justice – This is how it will end,” he said, “With the return of what was lost.”

Avdiivka:

This is a video report at this BBC link.

Belbek Airport, Russian occupied Sevastopol, Crime:

 

The Donetsk front:

St. Petersburg, Russia:

That’s enough for tonight.

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Reader Interactions

26Comments

  1. 1.

    Elizabelle

    Very happy about the POWs home.  Also that apparently none were harmed (or on board!) that jet Ukraine took down.

  2. 2.

    hrprogressive

    I’ll answer Claire Berlinski’s question:

    Because the Fascist Republican Party wants Russia to win, and wishes to be a part of the nascent Global Fascist Movement that is slowly attempting to accumulate power around the world in an attempt to destroy all “small l, small d” liberal democracy to achieve authoritarian dominance everywhere they can.

    It’s all pretty out in the open, I’m not sure why people keep asking these types of questions when they have explicitly said as much, in many different ways and forums.

  3. 3.

    jackmac

    Happy  to see the POWs come home.

    On reports that Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny may be relieved by President Zelenskyy, the dismissal of Gen. Douglas MacArthur by President Harry Truman during the Korean conflict in 1951 may not be directly comparable, but could offer some perspective.

    According to the Truman Library:

    “MacArthur thwarted Truman’s attempt to negotiate a ceasefire when the general ordered his troops to invade North Korea and push the NKPA up past the 38th parallel. This was not the first time the general had ignored direct orders from his Commander in Chief. On April 11, 1951, President Truman officially relieved Douglas MacArthur of his command. Word of his firing spread quickly, and the American public found the news upsetting. Truman felt that his decision was just because MacArthur had overstepped his authority, defied direct orders from his superior and interfered with Truman’s hope of ending the Korean War quickly.”

    Finally, I hope Speaker Mike Johnson’s counterparts from the Baltic States offered clear and forceful advice (perhaps as forceful as “quick fucking around”) on providing military aid to Ukraine.

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    Please be sure to watch the videos of the POWs coming home. It will absolutely make you cry, but it is worth it. The relief and joy they evince is poignant and moving.

    I am a little confused by the way some people speak about Zaluzhny’s paramount importance to Ukraine’s armed forces. Not because I doubt it at all, I definitely don’t. I know he is not out on the frontlines himself, but he is still of course at risk, as everyone in the military there is (really, as every person in the country is). He is surely far more at risk than most because of who he is. I’m sure russia sees a target painted on his back. So…it’s obviously possible he could die at some point. I hope beyond hope it doesn’t happen, of course, but it’s not an impossibility. The way some people are discussing his possible removal from his post makes me wonder what would happen in the awful eventuality of his death? I get that the two scenarios are entirely different, but if you say someone is irreplaceable, what happens in the scenario where replacement is necessary because the person is no longer living?

    This is all rhetorical. I’m not looking for concrete answers. Just thinking out loud (so to speak). Just seems to be dangerous to think that everything hinges on one person when that one person is not, so far as I can tell, immortal.

    Also too fuck Mike Johnson all to hell.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  5. 5.

    bjacques

    I’m guessing those POWs didn’t arrive home by IL-76(26?) via Bilhorod Airport. I wouldn’t have been surprised if some of their names had appeared on that bogus manifest.

    ”When I saw that wing coming off, I thought I was a goner!”

    ”But how did you survive?”

    (CHUCKLES) “Well…that’s a story for another time!”

    EDIT: Thanks, Adam for the perspective on the issue with Gen. Zaluzhny. It had come up at dinner and I’d pushed back on it, since the story seemed thinly sourced. But if it has to happen, at least now I have some background and perspective on it.

  6. 6.

    japa21

    @Alison Rose: Nobody is indispensable.  Back in the early days of this war, but after the initial attempt to capture Kyiv was thwarted, I commented on one of Adam’s post that if Russia succeeded in getting Zelensky,  they would find that, if anything, they would have made the situation worse for themselves.

  8. 8.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @jackmac: Well, MacArthur advanced toward the Yalu River against orders & despite public warnings from the PRC (& privately through intermediaries), ignored intelligences that the Chinese PLA (under the guise if the Chinese People’s “Volunteer” Army, or CPVA) had already entered NK & was poised to attack, suffered ignominious defeat due to his arrogance & negligence, & then tried cover his failure by publicly advocating for expanding the war into Manchuria, using nukes against the PRC, as well as employing KMT forces from Taiwan on the Korean Peninsula or invading the Mainland. All of where counter to explicit policy of the Truman Administration. Plus, MacArthur had obvious political ambitions to run as a Republican.

    Whether on the merits or optics, firing MacArthur was right thing to do. MacArthurs’s arrogance & negligences had also resulted in the rapid fall of the Philippines to the IJA/IJN during WW II. He must be one of the most overrated generals in US military history, along outside of some of traitors in the Confederate Army mythologized by the Lost Cause.

  9. 9.

    Gin & Tonic

    A friend’s nephew was KIA two days ago. A different friend’s parents’ home was destroyed by russian artillery last week. All I want to do is put my hands on pretend-Christian Johnson’s throat and squeeze until his face turns purple. Up close and personal, you know. So he can see my eyes.

  12. 12.

    Lyrebird

    @Gin & Tonic: That’s terrible news, G&T, I am so sorry.

    And yes, calling Rep. Johnson a shitweasel would be a terrible wrong to shitweasels everywhere.

  13. 13.

    Another Scott

    @japa21: +1

    A truism I heard long ago:

    “If you can’t be fired, you can’t be promoted.”

    An organization is broken if it depends on a single particular human in a position.  A healthy system depends on knowledge and skill being cultivated in its people.

    Some speculation I heard on the radio driving home was that the general wants 400,000 new troops, and the president is concerned about public support for the war if a mobilization is forced.  Both sides have strong arguments.  It’s a tough problem, but civilian control and decision-making is vital (for all the reasons given above).  If the general cannot accept his orders, then he needs to go.

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  15. 15.

    Another Scott

    I got sent to the dungeon because of a typo in the Email field.

    Help?

    Thanks.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  17. 17.

    minachica

    Is there any truth to the allegations that Poroshenko’s people are pushing the rumors of the Zelensky-Zaluzhny rivalry, in order to shore up Zaluzhny’s position? I’ve gotten hinky vibes about Poroshenko since the beginning. He seems to like going around pretending that he’s still president, negotiating  with Orban, etc.

  18. 18.

    Neal

    @YY_Sima Qian: 

    I recently read David Halberstam’s The Coldest Winter and I must say that MacArthur did not come out well. Only one night spent on the Korean Peninsula during the conflict and a staff that was not only slavishly obeisant, but worse, was wilfully ignoring or manipulating what was actually reliable intel.

    One little point that has doubly annoyed me for years is that as a First Captain (I think it was called that) at West Point he never seemed to have learned to salute the commander-in-chief. Of course I refer to his meeting with Truman. It was a petty and snide thing to do. Years later Stanley McChrystal (not the First Captain but also a West Pointer) seemed to also have had difficulty mastering the chain of command.

  19. 19.

    wombat probability cloud

    @Gin & Tonic: My heart is with you, and with your friends’s families. I don’t know what to do except to hold that rage and channel it as effectively and wisely as we can. It’s incredibly frustrating.

  20. 20.

    wjca

    @Alison Rose:

    No doubt Zaluzhnyi has a target on his back.  But I have to wonder if, having failed multiple assassination attempts, the Russians didn’t start, and push, the rumors about a rift and him getting fired.  It seems right in their disinformation wheelhouse.

    See also @minachica

  23. 23.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Sky News reporting on reviewing Israeli documents that purport to support the claims that UNWRA employees were implicated in the Oct. 7 atrocities:

    Israeli intelligence report claims four UNRWA staff in Gaza involved in Hamas kidnappings
    Sky News has been shown Israeli documents which make a string of allegations against the UN agency, including claims it is “assisting Hamas with securing humanitarian aid that is transferred to the Gaza Strip”.
    Alistair Bunkall
    Middle East correspondent @AliBunkallSKY
    Tuesday 30 January 2024 18:24, UK
    …

    The documents alleges that 6 UNWRA employees were involved in the atrocities (as opposed to the 12 originally reported), out of 12K roster (30K including contractor & volunteers). There are also some sensational claims that Sky News assesses to be currently unproven.

    So, the ICJ is concerned enough about Israeli conduct in Gaza to order immediate cessation of any activity that might lead to genocide (similar to the preliminary rulings against Putin in Ukraine, Assad in Syria, & the military junta in Myanmar), but Western weapons & munitions continue to stream to Israel unimpeded? Israel levels yet to be proven accusations against 0.025%. – 0.1% of UNWRA employees being involved in the Oct. 7 atrocities, & nearly 20 Western governments immediately suspend funding? That asymmetry will undermine Western credibility on human rights for a looong time to come.

    Frankly, I struggle to understand just who these Western governments are trying to placate, & why they need to be placated. Using future funding as leverage to force the UN to reform or replace the UNWRA, sure. Immediate suspension, when most of the same Western governments have failed to attach any strings at all to the platforms & munitions they have sent Israel’s way?

  24. 24.

    lee

    Russia lost another cruiser to a country without a navy.

    “Russian missile cruiser “Ivanovets” destroyed by sea drones at January 31/February 1 in Black Sea”

  25. 25.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @lee: It is Project 12411 Molniya (NATO codename Tarantul-III) class missile corvette, pretty much a missile boat on steroids dating from the late Cold War. I think this particular example is still carrying the SS-N-22 Sunburn ultrasonic anti-ship cruise missiles (& so do the 4 remaining sister ships in the Black Sea Fleet), which I do not recall ever being used for land attack against Ukraine.

    Video footage from the attack shows that multiple naval drones were employed to sink the corvette. Given the corvette’s low displacement, the drones were probably carrying small payloads to extend the range.

    In the Black Sea region, the Russian Black Sea Fleet still has 2 Project 11356R Admiral Grigorovich (NATO codename Krivak V) class missile frigates (including Admiral Makarov that was damaged in Oct. 2022 & repaired by Nov. 2023), 4 Project 636.3 Varshavyanka (NATO codename Improved Kilo II) class diesel electric submarines, 3 Project 22800 Karakurt class missile corvettes, & 4 Project 21631 Buyan-M class corvettes, all of which can launch anti-ship cruise missiles that have been repurposed for land attack. The Black Sea Fleet has a couple of other surface combatants in the Mediterranean, but Türkiye is very unlikely to allow them to the transit the Dardanelles & Bosporus Straits to enter the Black Sea. There are other missile corvettes, missile boats & patrol boats in the Black Sea Fleet, but they are only equipped for patrol or anti-submarine (which the Ukrainian Navy does not have) duties.

    As we have already seen, effective Ukrainian naval drone warfare has pushed the Russian Black Sea Fleet operations to east of Crimea, which is a remarkable achievement, & will be closely studied for years to come by all actors (state or otherwise) seeking asymmetric advantage against much more powerful adversaries.

  26. 26.

    Bill Arnold

    This is a quick read. A framework attributing Russian covert action failures to combinations of 3 causes, ignorance, indifference, and incompetence. (I agree with most of it, FWIW.)
    Ignorance, indifference, or incompetence: why are Russian covert actions so easily unmasked? (Open Access, Kevin P. Riehle, 30 Jan 2024)

    Abstract: Although plausible deniability is a definitional characteristic of covert actions, numerous Russian actions have been unveiled and attributed to Russia over the past decade. The reason for these frequent revelations can be explained by three factors: ignorance, indifference, and incompetence. Russian actions often display ignorance about the reactions they might elicit, indifference to global opinion if they are caught, and incompetence that allows foreign governments to unpeel the sometimes thin veneer of clandestinity that is supposed to cover Russian actions. Frequent revelations based on a combination of those factors have given Russia a reputation of aggressiveness in the international arena, while also limiting Russia’s own actions, even in overt areas such as diplomacy and economic relations, because of that reputation.

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