Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

It’s easy to sit in safety and prescribe what other people should be doing.

When I decide to be condescending, you won’t have to dream up a fantasy about it.

Republican also-rans: four mules fighting over a turnip.

The republican ‘Pastor’ of the House is an odious authoritarian little creep.

I’m starting to think Jesus may have made a mistake saving people with no questions asked.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Some judge needs to shut this circus down soon.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

Balloon Juice has never been a refuge for the linguistically delicate.

Wow, I can’t imagine what it was like to comment in morse code.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

It’s pointless to bring up problems that can only be solved with a time machine.

Let me file that under fuck it.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

The revolution will be supervised.

You cannot shame the shameless.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 725: The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Has Said Something Important

War for Ukraine Day 725: The Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Has Said Something Important

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Before we start, I just want to clarify something. If I make a pointed reply to a commenter, that’s not an invitation to pile on. Same goes for if someone makes a pointed reply to me or to anyone else. Unless the reply is way, way over the line. Another Scott and I do disagree on a number of things. That does not make them a bad person. Nor does it make them unwelcome in the comments to my posts or anyone else’s. I appreciate folks having my back, but I made the point I wanted to make, that was enough. I am glad Another Scott kept commenting last night/this morning and I look forward to him continuing to do so tonight and for as many nights to come as they like.

The Lithuanian Foreign Minister tweeted out a very long and thought provoking thread earlier today. Because it is long, it will be after the jump.

This morning, Ukrainian warriors shot down another russian Su-34 fighter-bomber in the eastern direction.

Also overnight, 12 Shahed UAVs and 1 Kh-59 guided air missile were shot down.

There is no place for russian occupiers and their weapons in the Ukrainian sky. Together, to Victory.

Here is President Zelesnkyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

We must continue to be resilient, determined, and achieve Ukrainian goals in this war – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 February 2024 – 21:41

Dear Ukrainians,

As this week, a very challenging week, is coming to an end, it is important to note several things.

First, gratitude to all our soldiers, all those working in defense, and all those who are helping. This week, the hearts of all those who care – not only in Ukraine – have experienced feelings of concern for our heroes, for our Avdiivka, for every defender, and for the fate of all our people, for the fate of our entire state.

The battle continues, and the main thing in this battle is that we are doing everything possible and impossible to defeat the Russian evil and protect as many Ukrainian lives as possible. Ukrainians have fought heroically before, but for the first time in its history, Ukraine has achieved such global solidarity and support. And although there are different political sentiments in the world, different flashes of problems that distract attention, we still – all together – do our utmost to have the world with us – with Ukraine. Therefore, so that our soldiers can stop the Russian inhumanity and return what is Ukrainian to Ukraine. I thank everyone who fights, who helps, who maintains resilience and determination.

Second, it’s the concrete support of the world. This week has brought our state two more agreements on long-term cooperation and support with leading countries. Germany. France. Our security agreements are very ambitious. Once again, thanks to Chancellor Scholz, President Macron, everyone in our teams who prepared the agreements and entered into them exactly what we need. Defense support, joint political steps, further institutional relationship systematization for greater security and collective strength. We are also working with other partners on new agreements – it will be a very effective and comprehensive architecture of security commitments. Things that will serve to restrain Russian aggression in the future and help protect independence now.

And third, the Munich Security Conference. Very fruitful participation this year. Our Ukrainian perspective on the global agenda was supported by our partners. I had negotiations with the leaders of Denmark, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic – we have a decision on additional support. Also, with the leader of Azerbaijan – as always, a good productive conversation that can strengthen both our nations and the entire region. I met with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the President of Guatemala. Also with American partners. Conversation with President Biden – very important points, including about Avdiivka and the need for continued principled and sufficient support for Ukraine. Talks with the Vice President of the United States – very substantive. Meetings with congressmen – representatives of both parties, both houses of the U.S. Congress. And each such conversation clearly confirmed the key point: Ukraine alone can stop Putin and create conditions for him to be punished for all the evil he has done. But for Ukraine to achieve this success – to protect its land, its people, and our common truth, everyone in the free world – Ukraine must not remain alone. Support is important. Solidarity – is important. Only together, in unity, can we win in this war.

We must continue to be resilient, we must continue to be determined. We must achieve our Ukrainian goals in this war.

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark:

Denmark has decided to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine, – Prime Minister of the country Mette Frederiksen

“Ukraine is asking us for ammunition and artillery now. We, Denmark, have decided to transfer all our artillery to Ukraine. So, sorry, friends, there is military equipment in Europe, it is not only a matter of production. We have weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, which we do not use yet. They must be handed over to Ukraine,” the official stressed.

Ukraine Online

Did I mention that the House of Representatives has taken a two week vacation?

Earlier today Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, shared his view of the strategic environment in a long tweet thread. I think it is important to read it and really hear what he is trying to convey. Landsbergis is viewing what is going on as someone from a state and society that was scarfed up by the Soviet Union and then dominated by its Russo-centric culture. Context always matters. His context is of a state and society that spent decades in subjugation and that is being actively and vocally threatened with that subjugation once again. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

It is good practice to evaluate things honestly – with all their gloominess. And if we don’t shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵 
Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, Europe is facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by Russia’s action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact. 🧵 
Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against Russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won’t admit there is an urgent need? 🧵 
And we need action right now, because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it’s far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake. 🧵 
I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that Russia’s industrial power is no match for the united West. But… 🧵 
We don’t lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support Ukraine and maintain our collective security. Russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy Ukraine and reestablish the Russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this? 🧵 
Currently we are an open book to our adversary – clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness. 🧵 
Strategically the goal should be to change Putin’s calculations. Disrupt the field. I know it’s not easy, but it is better to admit mistakes and chart a new path forward, rather than to engage in empty self-congratulation.

So yes, I am returning from Munich a bit gloomy. 🧵

Laura Rozen has helpfully transcribed key portions of Masha Gessen’s interview with WNYC.

Here’s the last section of Masha Gessen’s recent New Yorker piece that Rozen said to pay attention to: (emphasis mine)

What I Saw

I can’t get one passage out of my mind. In the history-lecture portion of the interview, when Putin got to 1939, he said, “Poland coöperated with Germany, but then it refused to comply with Hitler’s demands. . . . By not ceding the Danzig Corridor to Hitler, Poles forced him, they overplayed their hand and they forced Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking Poland.” (This is my translation.) The idea that the victim of the attack serves as its instigator by forcing the hand of the aggressor is central to all of Putin’s explanations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. To my knowledge, though, this was the first time he described Hitler’s aggression in the same terms.

Putin has reproduced Hitler’s rhetoric before. Ten years ago, announcing the annexation of Crimea, he seemed to borrow from Hitler’s speech on the annexation of Sudetenland. At the time, I assumed that the language had come from a speechwriter who knew what they were doing while Putin may not have. But the way Putin described the beginning of the Second World War in his interview with Carlson suggests that, although he keeps accusing Ukraine of fostering Nazism, in his mind he might see himself as Hitler, but perhaps a wilier one, one who can make inroads into the United States and create an alliance with its presumed future President.

It’s telling, too, that Putin took the time to accuse Poland of both allying with Nazi Germany and inciting Hitler’s aggression. As he has done with Ukraine in the past, he is positioning Poland as an heir to Nazism. He mentioned Poland more than thirty times in his conversation with Tucker. If I were Poland, I’d be scared.

There’s a reason that the senior national security officials in the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and several other EU and NATO member states keep stating that they expect Putin to attack one or more of them in the next few years. They’re not delusional, nor are they fear mongering. They are listening to what Putin is saying, reading what he is writing, and watching what he is doing. What they are hearing and seeing has led them to conclude that they, their states, and their societies are in jeopardy regardless of their status as members of NATO. While it is true that they have their own socio-historical biases regarding Russia that frame their understanding of the threat. It is also true that we need to recognize that we have our own and rather than mirroring onto these states and societies we should engage with what they are telling us.

They are seeing and hearing what the US is failing to do. They are seeing and hearing what Putin and other officials are saying:

And they are drawing reasonable and responsible conclusions from the empirical reality they are observing and acting appropriately.

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Russian occupied Avdiivka:

 

So, Z-Russians on Telegram are now talking about their losses in the Battle of Avdiivka in 2023-2024.

Allegedly, it’s 16,000 men as ‘irreplaceable losses’ (e.g., all fatalities + all severely wounded that will never be back to ranks again), as well as around 300 armored vehicles.

So, if that’s true (though it’s likely that Russians traditionally understate their losses, at least when it comes to lost equipment, given the gargantuan amount of verified video footage we’ve seen) — it means that over the four months of the Avdiivka campaign between mid-October and mid-February, the Russian fatalities rate surpassed the official death toll of the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), which stands at 15,000 fatalities.

Yes, the ill-fated and formerly sadly-remembered senseless war in ‘Afghan’ that once left a heavy scar on an entire generation and particularly precipitated the fall of the Soviet Union…

Fighting for Avdiivka continued since the very days of 2014 and 2015 and lasted with varying intensity all those years before 2022, and was also extremely bloodletting and fierce for almost two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Moreover, the claimed Russian death toll at Avdiivka… literally corresponds to some 50% of the city’s entire population in 2021 (some 32,000).

And that’s within the last four months alone and according to likely downplayed Russian estimates.

I guess that to take New York City, Russians would have to ditch 4.5 million soldiers under the same scheme or what?

And the defense of Avdiivka gradually crumbled particularly due to a severe lack of munitions and means to counter Russian jets relentlessly throwing dozens of guided bombs at the city each and every day. Stalemate around the Ukraine aid at the U.S. Congress is already taking its toll.

And amid all those shortcomings, see the absolutely savage efficacy of the Ukrainian defense, outnumbered and outgunned, — again.

A four-month battle vs a 10-year-long war in Afghanistan. Those are death toll estimates from Russians, not us.

We could have been celebrating victory over the aggressor right now, or at least we could have been much closer to restoring just and stable peace in Europe if Ukraine had been provided with everything it asked for.

There’s still time.

Uhh some painful doomposting from rus volunteer Murz, he found out the numbers of irreversible losses in Avdiivka and it’s not making him happy. And he really seems to like Syrsky.

Keep in mind that he is risking his ass by voicing this information, so it must be really getting to him.

 

Here’s the screen grabs of the letter:

Russian occupied Mariinka:

Diakove, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Kramatorsk and Slovyansk:

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. So here’s one from Anton Geraschenko about another very good Ukrainian girl!

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

41Comments

  3. 3.

    Alison Rose

    Fuck yeah, Denmark.

    Also, Poland after reading Gessen’s article.

    Of course Zelenskyy sounded positive and measured. He can’t sound any other way, or else the GOP will screech about how ungrateful and rude and mean he is. He knows the role he’s expected to play, and he’ll do it to benefit his country and his people, because he’s a professional and a good person, unlike 99% of the Republican Party.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  7. 7.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: Masha Gessen has been cancelled by the German establishment for her criticism of Israeli conduct in Gaza, specifically for this article in the New Yorker:

    In the Shadow of the Holocaust
    How the politics of memory in Europe obscures what we see in Israel and Gaza today.
    By Masha Gessen
    December 9, 2023

  9. 9.

    Anoniminous

    Russian casualties of “16,000 men as ‘irreplaceable losses’ (e.g., all fatalities + all severely wounded that will never be back to ranks again) ….” put into perspective is the entire fighting component of a WW 2 style SS Panzergrenadier Corps. “300 vehicles” is roughly the the number of Armored Fighting Vehicles for a SS Panzergrenadier Division of the same era.

    Russians paid a hell of a price for Avdiivka.

  10. 10.

    YY_Sima Qian

    OT: looks like the Israeli security establishment is all out of ideas as how to address the Palestinian challenge, they plan seems to be replicating the WB in Gaza, per Wesley Morgan (photos, videos & maos through the link):

    IDF gives Israeli TV a tour of the “Netzarim Corridor” they’re building to divide Gaza in two. IDF is demolishing the Turkish hospital and everything else inside the zone. Officer explains the zone will control Gazans’ movement between north and south and facilitate IDF raids.

    Like the kilometer-deep “buffer zone” along Gaza’s perimeter for which the IDF has conducted similar demolitions, this depopulated, IDF-controlled zone flies in the face of the White House’s “no reduction in territory” policy. The White House has commented on neither.

    Going by the Channel 14 map, the Netzarim Corridor appears to be almost exactly 2km wide—1km on each side of the road the IDF is paving down the middle of it from the border to the coast, much like the 1km-deep buffer zone being established inside Gaza along the border.

    Some of what was inside this zone and is apparently now being demolished by the IDF (besides farmland): —Mughraqa village —Juhor al-Dik village —Turkish-Palestinian Friendship Hospital —New Campus of al-Azhar University —Nour amusement park —Sharm amusement park

  12. 12.

    Anoniminous

    @Alison Rose:

    I am as sure as it is possible to be that Poland is not going to let Russia conquer Ukraine.  If necessary they will ally and intervene with military force.  “Germany will destroy our body, but Russia will destroy our soul” said someone whose name I cannot dredge out of memory.

  13. 13.

    Tee

    Thank you Adam.  I read these posts so I know what to say to the children I care for.  I do it so I can be informed and answer the questions they ask.  I try not to overwhelm them as they already have so much going on in their lives. I know that if I can’t answer a question I can ask and get information.  I keep faith that the good in the people will outweigh the evil in the few. Tank you again Adam for making it easier to help those I care for.

  19. 19.

    Bill Arnold

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    IDF gives Israeli TV a tour of the “Netzarim Corridor” they’re building to divide Gaza in two.

    That is appalling. (The border zone, too.)
    Perhaps a North-South divider zone is next. Then the resulting four quadrants can be in turn divided in two.
    /dark snark

  20. 20.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Bill Arnold: No viable Palestinian state will emerge on Gaza from this kind of partitioning, it’s replicating the “Bantustans” in the WB. Would the PA want to take over a Gaza thus configured?

  21. 21.

    YY_Sima Qian

    The Su-34 is supposed to be Russia’s premier fighter bomber, w/ modern radars, EW suites & flight avionics. There were 124 airframes flying as of 2020. 26 have been shot down over Ukraine & a further 3 lost in training accidents since the re-invasion. Not sure how many new airframes Russia has been able to induct into service over the past 2 years.

    Given how conservatively RuAF has been used in the war to date, the attrition rate does not speak well of the RuAF’s SEAD & EW capabilities, or the self-defense suites of the Su-34.

  22. 22.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: …Europeans still fawn over them. At one event the senators & congressmen treated like royalty; Ukrainian & other MPs relegated to the sidelines.

    I suppose it could be sincere respect from the Europeans.  Maybe.

    But it seems more likely to be tactical.  A matter of “We have to flatter these morons, in the hopes that they will behave like adults (however briefly) when they get home.  Because we’ve got no other hope of getting them to do the right thing.”

  23. 23.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Tne only people who think the Two State solution is viable are idiots in Washington DC.  Israel wants the Palestinians gone or dead and if not the former than the latter.

  26. 26.

    pieceofpeace

    Thanks, Adam, and know you are widely and deeply appreciated by me and the many who read these reports which are forwarded.

  27. 27.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: Thank you for that.  I have a hope that it would require a bit less of a smack to get American attention.

    And I expect that Putin feels compelled to work on that assumption.  For example, while Russia keeps hitting civilian targets all across Ukraine, I suspect that the military has strict orders to make sure they never, ever, hit the US Embassy.

  29. 29.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: Sure, if the Russians level the US Embassy in Kyiv & kill or main dozens of US diplomatic corps, then that would be a galvanizing wake up call, but I highly doubt Putin will make it that easy.

  30. 30.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: But in the Baltics, there are those inconvenient US bases, too.  Be a real pest to avoid all of them.  If it even proved possible.  (Of course, if the US not only exits NATO, but pulls all our troops back, that changes the calculus for Putin.)

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @wjca: That is why Putin will not likely launch an all out invasion of any NATO country like he has done wrt Ukraine, but hybrid warfare leveraging elements of the minority Russian populations, as well as right wing movements, causing domestic discontent & provoke crack downs by Baltic governments, & constantly salami slice forward.

    Obviously Putin will also wait for Trump or someone like him in the WH before making the more aggressive moves to the Baltics.

  32. 32.

    Jinchi

    @Anoniminous: ​
      Tne only people who think the Two State solution is viable are idiots in Washington DC.

    The two-state solution is viable. It’s just that the Israeli government clearly does not intend to let it happen.

  33. 33.

    MaryLou

    I appreciate Adam’s comment about the treatment of Another Scott in the comments thread. Adam is often right (not always), but Another Scott offers another perspective and is often right as well. I notice that in tonight’s thread there are no comments from Another Scott and I hope the crowd here has not silenced him.

  36. 36.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Great article by Shashank Joshi at the Economist on detailing how unprepared Europe is to defend itself w/o the US, exerting the most damning section:

    Can Europe defend itself without America?
    It would need to replace military aid, a nuclear umbrella and leadership

    …

    Europe has thought about such a moment for years. In 2019 Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, told this newspaper that allies needed to “reassess the reality of what nato is in the light of the commitment of the United States.” Mr Trump’s first term in office, in which he flirted with withdrawing from nato and publicly sided with Mr Putin over his own intelligence agencies, served as a catalyst. The idea of European “strategic autonomy”, once pushed only by France, was embraced by other countries. Defence spending, which began rising after Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, has now increased dramatically. That year just three nato allies met the target of spending 2% of gdp on defence, which was defined as the bare minimum at last year’s summit in Vilnius. This year at least 18 states, 62% of European allies, will hit it. Europe’s total defence spending will reach around $380bn—about the same as Russia’s, when adjusted for purchasing-power parity.

    Paper tiger

    Those numbers flatter Europe, however. Its defence spending yields disproportionately little combat power, and its armed forces are less than the sum of their parts. The continent is years away from being able to defend itself from attack by a reconstituted Russian force, which could appear as early as the late 2020s. At last year’s summit, nato leaders approved their first comprehensive national defence plans since the cold war. Alliance officials say those plans would require increasing Europe’s existing (and unmet) targets for military capability by about a third. That would mean around 50% more defence spending than today, raising the total to 3% of GDP. Only America, Poland and Greece, the latter flattered by bloated military pensions, reach that level today.

    More money is not enough. Almost all European armies are struggling to meet their recruitment targets, as is America’s. Moreover the rise in spending after 2014 delivered alarmingly little growth in combat capability. A recent paper by the International Institute of Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London, found that the number of combat battalions had barely increased since 2015 (France and Germany added just one) or had even fallen, in Britain by five. At a conference last year, an American general lamented that most European countries could field just one full-strength brigade (a formation of a few thousand troops), if that. Germany’s bold decision to deploy a full brigade to Lithuania, for instance, is likely to stretch its army severely.

    Even when Europe can produce combat forces, they often lack the things needed to fight effectively and for long enough: command-and-control capabilities, such as staff officers trained to run large headquarters; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, such as drones and satellites; logistics capabilities, including airlift; and ammunition to last for longer than a week or so. “The things that European militaries can do, they can do really well,” says Michael Kofman, a military expert, “but they typically can’t do a lot of them, they can’t do them for very long and they’re configured for the initial period of a war that the United States would lead.”

    Poland is an instructive case. It is the poster boy for European rearmament. It will spend 4% of its gdp on defence this year, and splurges more than half of that money on equipment, far above nato’s target of 20%. It is buying huge numbers of tanks, helicopters, howitzers and himars rocket artillery—on the face of it, just what Europe needs. But under the previous government, says Konrad Muzyka, a defence analyst, it did so with little coherent planning and utter neglect of how to crew and sustain that equipment, with personnel numbers falling. Poland’s himars launchers can fire out to 300km, but the country’s own intelligence platforms cannot see targets at that distance. It will rely on America for that.

    ..
    The seemingly dry question of military command and control brings such issues to the fore. nato is a political and diplomatic body. It is also a formidable bureaucracy that spends €3.3bn annually and operates a complex network of headquarters: a Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (shape) in Belgium, three big joint commands in America, the Netherlands and Italy, and a series of smaller ones below. These are the brains that would run any war with Russia. If Mr Trump withdrew from nato overnight, Europeans would have to decide how to perform this role.

    An “eu-only” option would not work, says Daniel Fiott of the Elcano Royal Institute, a Spanish think-tank. In part that is because the eu’s own military headquarters is still small, inexperienced and incapable of overseeing high-intensity war. In part it is because this would exclude Britain, Europe’s largest defence spender, as well as other non-eu nato members such as Canada, Norway and Turkey. An alternative would be for Europeans to inherit the rump natostructures and keep the alliance alive without America. Whatever institution was chosen, it would have to be filled with skilled officers. Officials at shapeacknowledge that much of the serious planning falls on just a few countries. Among Europeans, says Olivier Schmitt, a professor at the Centre for War Studies in Denmark, only “the French, the Brits and maybe the Germans on a good day can send officers able to plan operations at the division and corps level”, precisely those needed in the event of a serious Russian attack.

    …

  37. 37.

    Geminid

    @Jinchi: Nations who have stated that a Two-state resolution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is their official policy include China, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Moving closer to the area in question, the EU nations call for a Two-state solution collectively and singly.

    Even closer, the Arab League adopted a Two-State solution in March of 2022 and has not shifted that position. Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, and the UAE, which have normalized relations with Israel call for a Two-state solution, as do Saudi Arabia and Qatar even though they have yet to normalize. These nations know this problem well because they’ve seen it up close for decades. It’s been a constant source of strife and instability in their region, they want it resolved, and they believe that a Palestinian state alongside- not instead of- the Israeli state is the way.

    I think you are correct when you say that a Two-state resolution to the larger Israeli/Palestinian conflict is viable. I also know there are well informed and well meaning people who believe it’s not, but I think many of the people who blow off a Two-state solution are not so well informed because they don’t actually care that much and resent having to think about the problem. But responsible actors in the region and the world do not have that luxury.it

  40. 40.

    Another Scott

    I just saw this – KyivIndependent.com:

    The White House is prepared to send Ukraine long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) if Congress approves a new funding package, NBC News reported on Feb. 19, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

    After months of deliberation, the U.S. delivered ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in October 2023, but they were an older model with a range of 165 kilometers. Newer variations of ATACMS have a maximum range of around 300 kilometers and have so far not been provided to Ukraine.

    U.S. officials told NBC that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden is prepared to send Ukraine the longer-range ATACMS variation in one of its first aid packages if Congress passes the funding bill.

    The officials also said that it was possible the U.S. would ask its allies to provide long-range ATACMS to Ukraine with the expectation that the U.S. would refill depleted stockpiles.

    […]

    I’d normally add “… gradually, and then suddenly” here, but we’ve seen that “suddenly” hasn’t much happened in real wars. (That said, I would guess [ not a prediction! ] that supplies for Ukraine will be much less of an issue after the spring.)

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    wjca

    @YY_Sima Qian: Among Europeans, says Olivier Schmitt, a professor at the Centre for War Studies in Denmark, only “the French, the Brits and maybe the Germans on a good day can send officers able to plan operations at the division and corps level”, precisely those needed in the event of a serious Russian attack.

    It does occur to me that, while there would certainly be transition challenges, the ability to do that kind of planning is something that is learned.  As we have seen elsewhere, there are ex-military US officers who are willing to be hired to work with foreign militaries.  So finding staff, both to train European officers and to assist while those are getting up to speed, should be entirely possible.  (Especially since there might well be some months while TIFG tried to negotiate for the Europeans to buy back the bases and headquarters that the US has been using there.  Not that we own them, of course, but I doubt he has a clue about that.)

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