(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Tomorrow will be the end of the second year of Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion and the beginning of the third year of that defense.

Let’s start with a bit of good news:

Reports indicate another A-50 downed—Russia's eyes in the sky. If confirmed, this marks a major success. Last time it was seen over the Azov Sea. pic.twitter.com/q4XzJ2r5uB

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 23, 2024

Woohoo! Confirmed! A-50 downed!!!🎉 pic.twitter.com/8SyZHTexse

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 23, 2024

Again? Again!
The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed another enemy A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft, worth $330 million.

Great job by Ukrainian warriors! pic.twitter.com/HcLsaGEln5

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 23, 2024

The Russians had nine of these modernized A-50s. Now they have seven. The point of taking them out, however, is to make Russia exceedingly shy in regard to using them. Ukraine’s continually pushing back the distance at which it can destroy these platforms, as well as other Russian aviation assets, makes it harder for Russia to actually use them for their couple of times a week barrages on Ukrainian civilian targets. More on this, as well as this morning’s barrage, after President Zelenskyy’s daily address and the jump.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Democracies should not withdraw from the historical process of protecting all the values that have shaped our modern world – address by the President of Ukraine

23 February 2024 – 17:33

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I am now having a working day in Lviv. First, I met with Prime Minister of Denmark Mette Frederiksen, and then I met with U.S. senators – a delegation led by Chuck Schumer. Good talks and another useful day for Ukraine.

With Mette, we signed a security agreement between Ukraine and Denmark. This is the fourth such agreement. We already have agreements with the UK, Germany, and France. Denmark is the first among countries outside the G7, and the agreement is significant. As has already become a model, we have a clear statement on defense support for this year – one billion eight hundred million euros. The agreement will be in effect for ten years, so each year there will be a corresponding amount of cooperation, including defense cooperation.

Of course, there is also a whole range of necessary political and diplomatic clauses in the agreement that set out our fundamental principles. Increasing pressure on Russia, maximizing cooperation with Denmark, supporting our movement to the European Union and NATO – all the things that strengthen us. Mette, thank you again!

We also work together in the field of joint defense production. We discussed specific things today. Our teams agreed to hold a bilateral defense industries forum and an investment forum. That is, relations are really at a high level. By the way, we also talked today about the specific timeframe for the appearance of F-16s in the Ukrainian sky, with which Denmark has been very, very helpful.

At the meeting with the U.S. Senate delegation, I first thanked them for the positive vote on the package of support for our country and our warriors. This package is not an ordinary one, it is fundamental to our defense both in terms of its content and the signal that support or non-support for this package sends to the world. Democracies should not withdraw from the historical process – the process of protecting all the values that have shaped our modern world.

I briefed the senators on the current situation on the battlefield – on the direct correlation between the weapons our warriors have and the results achieved by our common enemy. Sufficiency of artillery, sufficiency of long-range capabilities are key things for us, for our Defense Forces. And, of course, we are working very actively to deprive Russian aircraft of the ability to dominate the skies near the front this year, as well as on joint defense production projects. We discussed the relevant priorities with the American delegation.

We are now preparing to continue our extremely active international work in the coming weeks. There will be new agreements that will strengthen our troops, the defense of our cities, and the position of our state.

I thank everyone in the world who helps! I thank everyone who defends us, Ukraine, our people, our principles – absolutely fair principles.

No one in the world has the right to destroy independent nations. No one. And we will not allow Russia to destroy Ukraine.

Thank you, Lviv, for this day!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Девятка Івана був мобілізований та стояв на захисті нашої країни. Іван загинув 17 лютого виконуючи бойове завдання в Авдіївці.
Світла пам'ять Герою! pic.twitter.com/MgmeKgsVd9

— Сергій Погребецький (@pogrebeckij) February 23, 2024

Ivan Devyatka was mobilized and stood in defense of our country. Ivan died on February 17 while performing a combat mission in Avdiivka.
Bright memory of the Hero!

I’m pretty sure there’s a problem with the machine translation of this hero’s name, so if one of our Ukrainian speakers will clear that up in a comment, I’ll make the change once I see your correction. All fixed. Thanks Gretchen and Gin & Tonic!

President Zelenskky, as he indicated in his address, met with Senator Schumer and several other Democratic senators today. Senator Schumer had a few things to say:

Schumer to Zelenskyy:"We have come because, the Senate & the good bipartisan Democrat & Republican have voted for the aid that is so needed. Unfortunately, the House is still not made up their mind. And one of the main reasons we've come here is to help them make up their minds." https://t.co/UcE9taLkJs

— Craig Caplan (@CraigCaplan) February 23, 2024

Here is the rest of President Zelenskyy’s tweet:

I met with the U.S. Senate delegation, Senate Democratic Majority Leader @SenSchumer and senators
@SenBlumenthal , @SenJackReed , @MichaelBennet, and @SenatorHassan.

This visit is a solid message from the United States and the American people. It shows that the U.S. support Ukraine. Americans are on the side of truth and we share common values.

I thank our partners for helping us preserve democracy not only in Ukraine!

🇺🇦🇺🇸

You’ll notice what Senator Schumer did not say? He did not say Republicans have not made up their mind. Instead, he said the House hasn’t made up their mind. National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby also blamed the hold up on Congress both yesterday and today.

In his remarks today, President Biden threw in “the Speaker ” but didn’t name Johnson or indicate what party he is from and that Johnson’s GOP House majority caucus is the problem here.

.@POTUS: “Russia is taking Ukrainian territory for the first time in many months. But here in America, the Speaker gave the House a two-week vacation.”

“Failure to support Ukraine in this critical moment will never be forgotten in history.” pic.twitter.com/WUCWi2uKXo

— Andrew Bates (@AndrewJBates46) February 23, 2024

We here all know this is on the House GOP majority caucus, but the average American does not. So if they see or hear any reporting on this, it will be that Senator Schumer blamed the House, the White House, via a spokesperson, blamed Congress, and the President blamed the Speaker and the House. This is absolutely terrible strategic communication. Make who is causing the problem explicit and repeat it over and over and over until it sticks with the pack of useless idiots that are doing business as the White House and Congressional correspondents and reporters.

Britain:

🎬 As part of our latest military aid package, the UK is providing 200 more Brimstone missiles, a precision-guided anti-tank missile, to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

This aid plays a crucial role in stalling Russian advances.

🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦pic.twitter.com/SpVnWqeiVm

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 22, 2024

Denmark:

Check out the full story here https://t.co/TmfXPbCjzb

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) February 23, 2024

Today, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen @Statsmin and I signed an agreement on security cooperation and long-term support between Denmark and Ukraine.

This is a strong document, which confirms Denmark's unwavering support for our people. It includes at least €1.8 billion in… pic.twitter.com/GZWcvLL6os

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 23, 2024

Today, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen @Statsmin and I signed an agreement on security cooperation and long-term support between Denmark and Ukraine.

This is a strong document, which confirms Denmark’s unwavering support for our people. It includes at least €1.8 billion in assistance for this year. Denmark will also support efforts in securing a holistic F-16 capacity through the Air Force Capability Coalition by providing fighter jets, ammunition, simulators, training, and maintenance.

We continue to work on a new security architecture for our country. We thank Denmark for its solidarity with our people. Thank you for your help!

🇺🇦🇩🇰

The Russians decided to have their weekly mass bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets begin again in the small hours before today’s dawn.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine downs 23 out of 31 Russian drones launched overnight.

The drones were downed over Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts, according to the Air Force. https://t.co/ZjtaNny2vh

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 23, 2024

Three people killed in Russian Shahed attack on Odesa. In Dnipro, nine-story residential building hit with a drone. Russia launched 31 Shahed drones, 23 were intercepted. pic.twitter.com/j3Lyv5b2Hq

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) February 23, 2024

One of the drones fell on a civilian enterprise in the coastal zone of Odesa. A fire broke out. A security guard was rescued from the damaged building, she was not injured.

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) February 23, 2024

Russians fired Shahed drones and X-31P and X-22 missiles at Odesa. Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed nine kamikaze drones, and the missiles lost their combat capability in the air.

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) February 23, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine’s military shot down 23 out of the 31 Shahed-type drones Russia launched overnight on Feb. 23, the Air Force reported.

The drones were downed over Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts, according to the Air Force.

Russia also reportedly fired three S-300 anti-aircraft guided missiles from Donetsk Oblast, a Kh-31P missile, and two Kh-22 missiles from the Black Sea.

The Air Force did not specify whether missiles hit any targets, but Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces said earlier that the Kh-31P and Kh-22 lost their combat capability in the air.

In Ukraine’s southern city of Odesa, a drone crashed into the building of a civilian enterprise in the coastal zone, killing three people, Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram.

At least eight people were injured in Dnipro, where an apartment building and an enterprise were hit in the overnight attack, according to Serhii Lysak, the regional governor.

Air defenses destroyed five drones over three districts of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Lysak added.

Drone attacks are an almost daily occurrence in Ukraine, affecting various regions across the country. Overnight on Feb. 22, Ukraine’s air defenses reportedly downed eight Shahed drones.

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Special Kherson Cat has more details on the Ukrainian strike on the Russian A-50.

/2. Presumably video of the Russian A-50 which was shot down over the Kanevsky district of the Krasnodar region, Russia. pic.twitter.com/ROVAnOhlsb

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 23, 2024

/1. Russian sources report about another loss of an A-50. As they say it was shot down in the same area in which the previous one was lost. As always Russians claimed it was a friendly air defense fire.

Russian media: “02/23/2024 Again A-50, again the same area. The enemy has nothing to do with it again. The launches were from the Mariupol area.”

/4. Woman in the video above mentions that aircraft debris has fallen in Trudovaya Armeniya village of the Krasnodar region of Russia. Approximately 210km from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/kmLAdM5gyt

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 23, 2024

/8. Another video of the downed aircraft over the Azov Sea/Krasnodar region area. pic.twitter.com/JHDZgSwLAv

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 23, 2024

/7. Another Russian source about the downed A-50:

“A-50. Again. Again. Again.
Comrades, the problem is at a systemic level.
The resource of these aircraft is almost non-renewable.
The crew is a separate matter. The highest specialists. You cannot bring them from Central Asia.
Eternal flight, guys.”

/12. First footage of the A-50 debris pic.twitter.com/OiDlLwXBcm

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 23, 2024

Local civilian allegedly looking at the remnants of the A-50 plane somewhere at "Borets Truda" farm in Krasnodar Krai. pic.twitter.com/o1wbgvYxHc

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 23, 2024

Forbes also has details:

Incredibly, the Russian air force has lost another one of its rare Beriev A-50M/U Mainstay radar early-warning planes. Video that circulated online on Friday reportedly depicts the A-50’s burning wreckage in Krasnodar Krai, in Russia just east of the Sea of Azov.

The location of the crash, at least 120 miles from the front line in southern Ukraine, could indicate the four-engine, 15-person radar plane either suffered a mechanical failure—or took a hit while operating closer to the front and tried to make it back to its base in Krasnodar before exploding.

For what it’s worth, the Ukrainian air force claimed it shot down the A-50 with assistance from the intelligence directorate in Kyiv.

Either way, it’s a devastating blow for the battered Russian air force. The air arm has lost, mostly to Ukrainian long-range surface-to-air missiles—American-made Patriot PAC-2s, in particular—nine of its best planes in just a month. Including an A-50 that the Ukrainians hit over the Sea of Azov in January.

Prior to that earlier shoot-down, the Russian air force had just nine modernized A-50M/Us. Now it’s down to seven, just a few of which are active at any given time.

The A-50s play important supporting roles in Russia’s two-year wider war on Ukraine. They help to detect incoming Ukrainian missile raids and also relay radio signals from front-line forces to their headquarters, which might be hundreds of miles away.

Early in their wider war on Ukraine, the Russians deployed A-50s north and south of free Ukraine, but kept them at a distance in order to minimize the risk from Ukraine’s S-300 air-defense batteries with their 75-mile range missiles.

Over time, the Russians got bolder. “There is a realistic possibility that Russia will accept more risk by flying Mainstay closer to the front line,” the U.K. defense ministry noted in November.

But that boldness backfired as the Ukrainian air force deployed the three Patriot batteries it got from Germany and the United States. A Patriot PAC-2 ranges 90 miles. Far enough to hit an A-50 flying over the Sea of Azov.

The first A-50 loss spooked the Russians. They began flying their southern A-50 track over land around Krasnodar rather than farther west over the sea. The move was “highly likely indicative of a reduced risk appetite,” according to the U.K. ministry.

But that reduced risk appetite didn’t save the second A-50.

As much as the airframe loss hurts, the loss of 15 experienced airmen might hurt worse. Russian air ops “are constrained by the availability of pilots with sufficient experience to carry out key missions,” analysts Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds wrote in a recent study for the Royal United Services Institute in London.

Russian industry reportedly is working overtime to modernize a new A-50 as a replacement for the first destroyed jet. The cost—potentially hundreds of millions of dollars—is significant. In the meantime, the Russians rapidly are losing their ability to control the air over southern Ukraine.

Still, it’s unlikely the Ukrainian air force can keep shooting down Russia’s best jets at the current rate. Four months after Russia-aligned Republicans began blocking U.S. aid to Ukraine, Ukraine’s stock of Patriots is “dropping to a critical level,” according to Anton Gerashchenko, a former advisor to the Ukrainian interior ministry.

See what the Forbes reporter did? “Russia-aligned Republicans began blocking US aid to Ukraine…” This is how you effectively communicate the problem.

The Wall Street Journal‘s Yarislov Trofimov has published a new essay regarding US support to Ukraine. Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)

When President Vladimir Putin sent tanks toward Kyiv in February 2022, he bet that Western societies—and especially Europe, so dependent on Russian energy—wouldn’t have the stamina to oppose his attack and would eventually acquiesce to Ukraine’s dismemberment or outright disappearance.

Two years later, Ukraine has proved a formidable foe, regaining half of the land initially occupied by Russia and inflicting staggering casualties on Russia’s much more powerful military. Europe, too, has absorbed the economic shock of severing Russian natural-gas supplies and is boosting its military spending and commitments to Ukraine. This month the European Union passed a new $54 billion aid package for Kyiv, overcoming objections by Hungary.

It’s in the U.S., however, that Putin’s wager appears to be paying off, at least for now, as Moscow has successfully inserted itself into America’s culture wars.

Support for Ukraine, widely deemed a self-evident American national interest two years ago, has become a divisive partisan issue in an election year. A notable part of the Republican right has begun expressing admiration for Putin and even for the beauty of Moscow subways and the quality of Russian supermarkets—while pouring scorn on Ukraine’s embattled government and army.

For months the Republican leadership of the House of Representatives has been blocking legislation that would authorize fresh military assistance to Ukraine, including the latest bipartisan bill passed 70-29 by the Senate. The resulting cutoff has already caused an acute shortage of artillery shells in Ukrainian units. According to President Biden and Ukrainian commanders, it’s the main reason why Russia was able to seize the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka this month, Moscow’s first major battlefield advance since May.

The abrupt nature of the cutoff—which came after months of bipartisan assurances that, one way or another, American weapons would continue to flow—has left Ukraine in a particularly vulnerable spot. Russia has regrouped and is pressing a new offensive across the war’s entire front line, a push fueled by massive shipments of artillery shells and ballistic missiles from Moscow’s newfound ally North Korea.

“It’s not just that American aid has been cut, but it’s been cut without warning and without giving us any time to adjust. And it’s clear that Russia could gain the upper hand if Ukraine doesn’t have what it needs to defend itself,” said former Ukrainian defense minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk, who advises President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration. “If this crisis is not resolved, and Ukraine doesn’t receive the assistance, it will become a huge gift to Putin.”

The prospect of an outgunned Ukraine losing much more ground in coming months, coupled with fresh doubts about America’s commitment to defend its allies should Donald Trump return to the White House next year, is increasingly unnerving democracies in Europe and beyond. That’s especially so as Putin has established a de facto military alliance with the rogue regimes of North Korea and Iran while growing closer and closer to authoritarian China.

The sense of anxiety is particularly high in Taiwan, an island democracy that Beijing considers a “renegade province” and has pledged to “reunify” with the mainland. America’s walking away from Ukraine, if it happens, “is going to be a disaster and is going to encourage the dictators in Beijing, in North Korea and in other countries,” warned Wang Ting-yu, who is slated to become chairman of the Taiwanese parliament’s defense and foreign affairs committee. “They will realize that the global leader doesn’t have the strength to keep its patience to support its allies. And if they think that way, they will make wrong decisions and misjudgments.”

That’s a warning echoed by the Biden administration and by some leading Republicans, including the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, who helped to shepherd through this month’s bipartisan bill, which would provide $95 billion in aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. “The entire world of democracies thinks this is important, and we are the leader of this free world. We cannot back away,” Sen. McConnell said about helping Ukraine in an interview. “This is not the time, in my view, to be sending the message that we are not up to the task.” Much of that funding, he added, will flow back to create jobs in U.S. industries.

While Europe and other allies already account for more than half of Western support for Ukraine, only the U.S. possesses the stockpiles of ammunition and other weaponry, such as air-defense interceptors, that can significantly help Ukrainian forces in the immediate future. European production of ammunition, though rising, won’t be sufficient to sustain the Ukrainian military until sometime in 2025, or even later, according to military analysts. Some key pieces of military equipment can only come from U.S. stocks.

The Biden administration and congressional leaders of both parties have been assuring Ukrainian officials that the cutoff in American supplies—now a determining factor on the battlefield—will never happen. The Republican speaker of the House, Rep. Mike Johnson, made similar promises after getting the job in October. “We can’t allow Vladimir Putin to prevail in Ukraine, because I don’t believe it would stop there,” he said in a Fox TV interview at the time. “We’re not going to abandon them.”

Now, even though the latest Senate bill would likely gain an overwhelming majority on the House floor, Johnson has refused to allow a vote on it, saying that he has other priorities. As it currently stands, the House is unlikely to consider Ukraine aid at least until mid-March, and it appears possible that no additional funding for Ukraine will be approved by the current Congress at all.

Looming above the congressional debate, of course, is the prospect of Trump winning the election in November. The former president has repeatedly said that he will reach a quick peace deal in Ukraine, though he hasn’t explained how and under what conditions. In a recent campaign appearance, he also intensified his criticism of NATO, indicating that he wouldn’t defend member-states who fail to meet the military spending target of 2% of GDP. “In fact, I would encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want,” Trump said he had told a European leader.

Asked why so many Republicans are now opposed to funding Ukraine, Sen. McConnell pointed to the isolationist spirit that has long been a force in American politics, particularly before World War II—and to the influence of Trump. “Our likely nominee for president is not enthusiastic about helping Ukraine,” McConnell said.

Officials in Washington and European capitals are skeptical about the prospects of any peace talks with Russia and discount any possibility of a deal before the U.S. presidential elections in November. While Ukraine says it’s unwilling to settle on anything short of regaining all of the 18% of its internationally recognized territory that is currently occupied by Russia, Moscow hasn’t dropped its initial war aim of controlling all of Ukraine.

In this month’s interview with talk-show host Tucker Carlson, Putin spent half an hour talking about how Ukraine—including the western city of Lviv—is historically Russian land and how Ukrainian identity is an artificial construct invented by the Austrian military before World War I. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said in January that Ukraine is a “cancer” and that any independent Ukrainian state, no matter how friendly to Russia, will inevitably be wiped out, even if it’s 10 or 50 years down the line.

“The very existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians,” said Medvedev, who heads Russia’s ruling party. “They will understand that life in a big common state, which they currently dislike very much, is preferable to death. Their death and the death of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realize it, the better.”

The new self-assurance coming from Moscow has prompted a flurry of warnings from American allies in Europe—and in Asia—about the potential domino effect of allowing Russia to win in Ukraine. The stakes, unlike at the outset of the war two years ago, are much higher today because of the hundreds of billions of dollars that the Western allies have spent on Ukraine since then and because of their frequent public commitments to stand by Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”

“The level of U.S. investment in the project of Ukraine’s independence has increased, and therefore [so has] the extent to which U.S. credibility is judged based on Russia’s ability to accomplish or not accomplish its objectives in Ukraine,” said Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the think tank RAND who has advised caution over Ukraine in the past. “If there were to be a dramatic reversal of fortunes in Ukraine, there would be a whole lot more confidence in the emerging pseudo-bloc of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran.”

Many Trump supporters who oppose further funding for Ukraine frame this approach as part of the need to focus on China, a much stronger rival than Russia. Despite warnings to the contrary from Asian allies, they downplay the effect that an American retreat in Europe could have on Asian security. American voters seem to care about Europe and Asia in equal measure, however. According to a recent Pew poll, some 74% of Americans believe that the war in Ukraine is important for U.S. national interests, just a notch below the 75% who say the same about the tensions between China and Taiwan.

Much more at the link.

Would you look at that, RAND’s senior fellow for appeasement and a prominent visitor to the White House over the past two plus years, is, like a stopped clock, right this one time.

The Christian Science Monitor has reported that the Ukrainians are watching all of this dysfunction. (emphasis mine)

The Ukrainian soldiers burrow into their musty underground bunker, waiting at dawn for target coordinates to fire their 105 mm artillery gun. Russian drones have been active overhead, and two incoming Russian shells had come their way.

But the main topic of discussion below ground – here, on one of the farthest frozen battlefields in eastern Ukraine – is of three new jolts of bad news that these soldiers see as closely interlinked. All are indicative of the urgent need for more American arms and ammunition.

First being digested: a new order to substantially cut back and cap the number of shells they fire at the Russian enemy each day.

“Even without this limitation there was not enough,” says the squad leader of the 1st Presidential Brigade of the Ukraine National Guard, giving the name Sasha. “Soon we’re going to have to fight them with our hands.”

Second, news emerged that the city of Avdiivka had fallen, after months of fierce fighting that Ukrainian officials estimate cost Russia some 17,000 dead troops. That news came to this cramped bunker in emotional form, with a video of a wounded soldier left behind in the chaotic final stages of Ukraine’s retreat, who called his sister to say goodbye. (Relatives later recognized the soldier’s body, along with five others, from videos taken after Russians seized the position, Ukrainian media reported.)

The third piece of bad news was from Washington. The U.S. House of Representatives had recessed until the end of February, further delaying a vote on a $60 billion military aid package that cleared the Senate with bipartisan support. Ukraine deems that assistance instrumental to the war effort, if it is going to halt Russia’s building offensive, if not reverse it.

As the second anniversary nears of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, the optimism that heralded Ukraine’s against-all-odds defense in 2022 – which forced Russian troops away from the capital, Kyiv, and recaptured swaths of northeast and south Ukraine – has faded.

It had diminished throughout 2023 with a failed counteroffensive that was bolstered by Western arms deliveries, yet ran headlong into heavily mined Russian positions.

But today one message is constant from Ukrainian soldiers, at multiple points along the front: an urgent plea for weapons and ammunition, on a scale and timeline that only the United States can provide.

The $60 billion vote is “very critical. Europe can’t provide all the supplies,” says a soldier in the bunker, a former English teacher who gives the name Kostiantyn.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, addressing the loss of Avdiivka and a stepped-up Russian pressure along the front, said Monday that Russia was “taking advantage of the delays in aid to Ukraine.”

“We have enough so we don’t lose, but we are far from getting the means of winning. That’s it,” says Kostiantyn. Like many here, he presents the Ukraine war as a pivotal contest between the democracies of the West, and the authoritarianism and dictatorship represented by Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

“You Americans – ‘We the people,’ as you say – have to decide whether to remain a global power,” the former teacher says. “For us, we don’t have a choice, because we have to fight. If not, then someone on TV will tell my kid she is not Ukrainian, she is Russian. And I don’t want that, so we will keep on fighting.

“For you, you have to decide for yourselves, no matter the camp, Republicans or Democrats,” Kostiantyn says.

“I don’t want you to get the impression that the Ukrainian people are not grateful for all your help and support. You owe us nothing,” he adds. “But the fact remains, if the U.S. and NATO allies want us to win, we need more – we need more for winning.”

And winning is not what is happening for Ukraine on the battlefield today, where soldiers daily fend off dozens of Russian artillery, drone, and ground attacks, and have dug deeper defensive positions all along the front line.

“The worst thing for us is when the guys in the trenches ask for artillery support, because they are getting assaulted, and you just have to answer, ‘We don’t have ammunition,’ and that’s just terrible,” says squad leader Sasha. “Every shell can save some of our guys’ lives there.”

Oleksander Tarnavskyi, commander of Ukraine’s forces in the south, said in a statement that he had little choice but to withdraw from Avdiivka, citing an enemy “advancing on the corpses of their own soldiers with a 10-to-1 shell advantage, under constant bombardment.”

Indeed, the Russian firepower advantage – and deep Ukrainian need – extends throughout the 600-mile front, where Russian forces fire 10,000 shells a day and have 4,000 artillery pieces in the country, compared with a rationed 2,000 shells a day fired by Ukraine’s 350 artillery pieces, according to an analysis by Jack Watling, a senior research fellow of the Royal United Services Institute.

“In short, without artillery ammunition, the Ukrainians risk being fixed in permanent defense, slowly ceding ground as most recently seen in Avdiivka,” Mr. Watling wrote in Time.

Much more at the link.

Mariupol:

Mariupol 22 Feb 2022, just 2 days before the russian onslaught. i believe it's in front of the Drama Theatre which was bombed by russia while civilians were sheltering there with children https://t.co/Pzrm2R2EyH

— marta dyczok (@mdyczok) February 23, 2024

Here’s the rest of the quoted tweet and its thread machine translated from the Thread Reader App:

Two years ago, on February 22, I woke up thinking that something had to be done, because everything went to the point where Putin would announce the so-called D/LNR in the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which actually happened the same day, but already in the evening, when we were all at the rally « Mariupol — this is Ukraine».
/1

On the morning of February 22, while still in bed, I created an event on Facebook « Mariupol — this is Ukraine», where I started inviting all in a row Facebook friends from Mariupol. Then I wrote an article on the site to get more people. I expected a hundred, well, maybe two.
/2

In a few hours, about 300 people clicked on the Facebook event, which will go to the Dramtheater.
What was my surprise when a thousand came out.
Mariupolts brought flags and painted creative posters.
/3

We had a free microphone, everyone could speak. Most called for unity and believed that we would cope with the impending trouble.

We also sang the anthem, hugged a lot, shared anxiety.
/4

A few minutes before this photo, I read the news that Putin had announced the so-called DNA on the borders of the Donetsk region. I knew what that meant, but I didn’t know what I could do to prevent an invasion of Mariupol.

/5

In this photo in the microphone, I announce, as the organizer of the rally, this news and at the end I say: «and the lana of the wide field, and the Dnieper, and the twists will be across your throat, the Muscovites are eateries!»

/6

No one then expected us to say goodbye to each other and to the city, although subconsciously even then everyone was scared.

It was an extreme pro-Ukrainian event in the city where the Ukrainian sun rises.

But not the last, I believe.

I really like my Mariupols 💛

Avdiivka:

Video of an Abrams tank with Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade in the Avdiivka area. https://t.co/qU4jdJOTgO pic.twitter.com/1PCWrcNIGi

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) February 23, 2024

Lipetsk Oblast, Russia:

/1. Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant in Lipetsk under kamikaze drones attack. Now. https://t.co/2Gq1d8AnT2 pic.twitter.com/mlNcek9unz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 24, 2024

/3. Video of fire on the territory of the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant pic.twitter.com/KSRw7vw78O

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 24, 2024

For you Sea Baby enthusiasts:

Sea Baby: the russian Black Sea fleet’s nightmare.

📹: @ServiceSsu pic.twitter.com/PgaffOZxOF

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 23, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Let the cutest photo of the day set the tone for a great Friday.

📷: 40th Artillery Brigade pic.twitter.com/WrU6bZTGeu

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 23, 2024

And an urgent plea from Patron!

If PayPay link doesn’t work — please use my email [email protected]
Thank you❤️ pic.twitter.com/75rCyItKLl

— Patron (@PatronDsns) February 23, 2024

Meet Natalia and Sergiy, from the village near Avdiivka, who refused to evacuate because they sheltered many animals and couldn’t leave without them. @UAnimalsENG persuaded them to save their life. Evacuation will be on next week. I want to help to buy enclosures and food for the animals. Right now, our Patron Fund is transferring money for the fence.
If you can — I ask you for help 🙌🏻
PayPal: https://paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=279APN5ES74GE

Direct to the Foundation: https://send.monobank.ua/jar/hmLqdwNzA

Open thread!