(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a quick Rosie update: She’s eating more, starting to put weight back on, and is significantly improved from the weekend and Monday. I, however, am still sleep deprived and exhausted. The other good news is that the oncology vet is excellent and has made it clear that despite the protocols, she’s treating the dog. So if we have to push a treatment back a week or two, then that’s what we’ll do.
The Russians bombarded Odesa today.
Odesa these minutes. Russian forces attacked the city with ballistic missiles, injuring at least 13 civilians. https://t.co/2rSsiqV1dR pic.twitter.com/B1L0azVNki
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 1, 2024
Yet another horrific Russian missile strike on Odesa.
A large depo used by Nova Poshta, Ukraine's civilian shipment service, is reported to have been targeted.
At least 13 were injured as of now. pic.twitter.com/te4j6LIM6A
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 1, 2024
Russian terrorists seem to have a special plan for Odesa and Kharkiv, calling it the "Russian world." If they can't get it, they target all they can reach. pic.twitter.com/5cpv2c3Dpx
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 1, 2024
They also hit Kharkiv itself and Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast again too:
This morning, russian troops killed two civilians and wounded six others, including an 11-year-old boy, by attacking the small town of Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast with a guided aerial bomb. Another bomb struck Kharkiv, damaging civilian infrastructure and houses. pic.twitter.com/uJusPKwlBl
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 1, 2024
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are Preparing Seven New Security Documents for Ukraine: Weapons, Finance, Political Cooperation – Address by the President
1 May 2024 – 20:02
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is a day dedicated to our international work – to the results that Ukraine needs in May and June.
We are preparing seven new security documents for our country – bilateral security agreements, including a security agreement with the United States… Weapons, finance, political cooperation – today I worked with the team on specific details of these documents, and we already have preliminary texts of some of these agreements. Each of them will support us this year and the next ones – this is our security architecture for the period until we join NATO. We are filling the draft agreements with stronger opportunities for Ukraine and for our common security with partners. Obviously, any means of increasing our protection against Russian terror are given special priority.
The second issue is the European orientation. Much depends on our activity, as in every previous stage of our EU integration. Ukraine has already fully implemented its part of the commitments so that we can actually start accession negotiations this June. We are working to avoid any delays or misunderstandings on the part of the European Union. We are preparing all the details, all the steps, all the aspects of communication, together with a team of our international experts. And I am grateful to everyone who is helping. This year, we have to maintain the situation and to achieve new goals in every strategic direction. The European Union, the actual start of negotiations, our rapprochement is one of these directions.
And, of course, the Global Peace Summit, the first of its kind, which can launch a real movement towards just peace. We are preparing for this summit and this movement. We are working closely with the Swiss side. Today we have agreed on the final details, and we are making every effort to ensure that as many leaders and countries as possible attend the summit. This is a matter of principle. The world can stop any aggressor. If it acts in unity and according to the rules of the majority – no aggression can withstand genuine global pressure. And we must all act together to force Russia into peace. In the coming weeks, there will be a lot of non–public work with partners to make the summit truly meaningful.
And one more thing for this day. I have made several personnel changes in the Security Service of Ukraine. Moreover, today I would like to thank the 9th Department of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine – your precision is inspiring. And our National Guard, all those who are on the front line, all those who, together with other units of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, honorably carry out combat missions. Thank you! And especially to the 3rd and 4th Operational Brigades, the warriors of the Omega Special Forces Center, the 5th Separate Assault Detachment, and the 6th Separate Detachment. I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine, who strengthens Ukraine, who helps Ukraine to bring justice – justice and peace – closer.
Glory to Ukraine!
Norway:
Norway will increase military support for Ukraine by NOK 7 billion ($628 million) this year.
The majority of the funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense and protect the lives of Ukrainians.
We are grateful to our Norwegian friends for their unfaltering support.… pic.twitter.com/HxQn4GaO7j
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 1, 2024
Norway will increase military support for Ukraine by NOK 7 billion ($628 million) this year.
The majority of the funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and protect the lives of Ukrainians.
We are grateful to our Norwegian friends for their unfaltering support. Together, we will overcome the russian aggressor.
Washington, DC:
Imposing New Measures on Russia for its Full-Scale War and Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine – United States Department of State https://t.co/r2rJ6do52h
— Jill Dougherty (@jillrussia) May 1, 2024
From the State Department:
The United States is today sanctioning more than 280 individuals and entities to impose additional costs on Russia for both its foreign aggression and internal repression.
In this action, the Department of State is imposing sanctions on more than 80 entities and individuals, including those engaged in: development of Russia’s future energy, metals, and mining production and export capacity; sanctions evasion and circumvention; and furthering Russia’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine.
The Department of State is concurrently delivering to Congress a determination pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act) regarding Russia’s use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops. Pursuant to the CBW Act, the Department is re-imposing restrictions on foreign military financing, U.S. Government lines of credit, and export licenses for defense articles and national security-sensitive items going to Russia. The Department also is sanctioning three Russian government entities associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs and four Russian companies that have contributed to such entities.
Among these actions, the Department is also sanctioning an additional three individuals in connection with the death of Aleksey Navalny in Russian Penal Colony IK-3.
All targets are being designated pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024, as amended, which authorizes sanctions with respect to specified harmful foreign activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.
The United States will continue to use the tools at its disposal to disrupt support for Russia’s military-industrial base and curtail Russia’s use of the international financial system to further its war against Ukraine. We continue to stand in solidarity with Russians striving for a more democratic future and with Ukrainians defending their homeland from Russia’s aggression.
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ACTIVITIES AND PROCUREMENT
The Department of State has made a determination under the CBW Act that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). We make this determination in addition to our assessment that Russia has used riot control agents as a method of warfare in Ukraine, also in violation of the CWC. The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield. Russia’s ongoing disregard for its obligations to the CWC comes from the same playbook as its operations to poison Aleksey Navalny and Sergei and Yulia Skripal with Novichok nerve agents.
In coordination with the Department of the Treasury, the Department of State is designating three Russian Federation government entities associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs and four Russian companies providing support to such entities. The Department of the Treasury is separately designating three entities and two individuals involved in procuring items for military institutes involved in Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs, pursuant to a separate WMD non-proliferation authority.
Pursuant to section 1(a)(i) of E.O. 14024, the following entities are being designated for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy:
- RADIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL DEFENSE TROOPS OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RCB DEFENSE TROOPS) is a specialized Russian military unit responsible for identification of and decontamination from radioactive, chemical and biological hazards. The RCB DEFENSE TROOPS have been involved in the day-to-day operations of Russia’s chemical weapons program and also have facilitated the use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin by Russian armed forces against Ukrainian troops.
- SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ACOUSTICS (FGUP NIIPA) is a Russian government scientific research institute that carries out research and development of military products and develops methods for the export of dual-use goods and technologies. FGUP NIIPA has been involved in the procurement and inventory of chemicals that could be used in the production of chemical weapons agents.
- FEDERAL STATE BUDGETARY INSTITUTION 48TH CENTRAL SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (48TH TSNII) is the leading Russian Ministry of Defense scientific research institute responsible for Russian military protection against infectious diseases and biological threats. 48th TSNII and its facilities are associated with the Russian biological weapons program. 48th TSNII and its branches were previously added to the Department of Commerce’s Entity List on August 27, 2020, and to the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) Section 231 List of Specified Persons on March 2, 2021.
There is a lot more at the link.
What’s interesting, is that I covered the question of Russian use of chloropicrin way back in September 2022.
Tatarigami and his Frontintelligence team have a new assessment regarding the battlespace of Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar. From the Thread Reader App:
Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers’k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵threadBefore proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility
2/ According to on-the-ground reports, occasional Russian groups have temporarily crossed the canal at Chasiv Yar but didn’t establish a bridgehead. A geolocated video by @giK1893 shows that Russians tried to set a position in the south of Chasiv Yar at the landbridge crossing3/ Considering that Russians gathered superior means and forces in the area, it’s a point of concern. It opens an opportunity to advance into the forest on the west side of the canal. If successful, this would provide them with the freedom to choose further assault directions.4/ Losing control of the southern part of Chasiv Yar would be negative, opening the road leading to Kostyantynivka, with the small village of Stupochky being the only obstacle in the way. However, we are not currently close to that situation.6/ Russian forces continuing to make tactical gains in the Ocheretyne area. Their advancing direction suggests an objective to reach Novooleksandrivka and then Vozdvyzhenka, potentially allowing them to cut off the road connecting the vital towns of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.6/ If the @Deepstate_UA’s reported territorial gains are accurate, it indicates that Russian forces have captured fortified positions.If you want to support Ukrainian forces in the area, check @jana_skhidna, a volunteer who consistently delivers aid to frontline forces there
7/ In the Bilohorivka-Siversk direction, over the past 48 hours, the enemy has launched multiple assaults from various directions, supported by a series of KAB strikes. Ground reports indicate that approximately 8 KAB hits occurred within 30 minutes. These assaults were repelled8/ The frontline situation remains complex, but efforts are underway to stabilize it. The arrival of Western ammunition is expected to improve the situation. While Russian forces are making gains, there is no sign of a frontline collapse.9/ These tactical gains may appear minor, but accumulation can lead to operational success. The goal is to form a multi-echelon double-pincer move. The smaller pincer aims to isolate forces south of Bakhmut, while the larger pincer seeks to encircle the entire grouping of forces10/ Ukraine can slow down and even stop the Russian advance, but not without losing several settlements. Despite shortcomings in strategic and operational planning, senior officers and soldiers at the tactical level are demonstrating personal initiative to fix the situation11/ For instance, individual officers and soldiers have taken the initiative to get machinery from charity funds and volunteers to build defenses. They also established ad-hoc training to train new soldiers who did not receive adequate training in the official training facilities12/ Most of these assaults have been countered thanks to infantry, supported by FPV drones, whose ammunition is still being produced in improvised workshops. Innovative ways to bypass EW or enhance FPV flight range are being developed and implemented at the individual level13/ Overall, thanks to ground-level efforts driven by the personal initiative of brigade officers, soldiers, and sergeants, along with the arrival of Western aid and stabilization measures that we can’t disclose, the situation may improve
The Avdiivka front:
Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade firing at the Russian MT-LB with infantry. Related to the attack described in the attached post. https://t.co/DnGbBtTuDL https://t.co/2e9xIRauJL pic.twitter.com/q4Hfix0Zor
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
Kuban, Russian occupied Luhansk:
Missile strike on Russian military training grounds near Kuban, Luhansk region. 100km from the front line. Supposedly ATACMS strike. https://t.co/5HVqgepOE5 pic.twitter.com/MPOcuGCZla
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
Russian Telegram channels post this video. Reportedly, this is a Russian vehicle full of ammunition burning somewhere in occupied Luhansk region. pic.twitter.com/OnALetRfeP
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 1, 2024
Georgia:
Georgia 🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪 pic.twitter.com/hWfr15dzpU
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 1, 2024
The brave woman confronts the riot police in Tbilisi saying: "shoot me, kill me! What are you doing to our children! shame on you!" pic.twitter.com/yvctzjxglc
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 1, 2024
3AM in Tbilisi.
The riot police are using water cannons to disperse the protesters. Tens of thousands of Georgians remain in front of the Parliament. pic.twitter.com/gj0rtZACcY
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 1, 2024
STATEMENT!!!! State Dept On Georgia’s Western Trajectory at Risk#NoTorussianlaw pic.twitter.com/PIKl93rgVI
— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) May 1, 2024
Russia:
/1. Russian oil refinery in Ryazan was under attack tonight. This is the second time when drones target objects on the territory of this oil refinery (thread about previous strikes attached).
Ryazan oil refinery is located 470 km from the frontline. https://t.co/P8gzFp4PID pic.twitter.com/cXBBBw1lPQ— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
/3. Geolocation proof from Ryazan oil refinery. https://t.co/tjNeSlA0IT
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today. So here’s some adjacent material:
“Rama” and her family pic.twitter.com/orPINSrnW5
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
Open thread!
Gin & Tonic
People lining up to buy masks and respirators in Tbilisi:
teezyskeezy
I think the deciding factor in Georgia is how strongly the people in control actually feel affinity for Russia. My guess is not very fucking much, but they feel threats (some personal, some existential to their nation) that make them feel like they should capitulate on this and that right now. However, if the people are strongly motivated, and the officials are of a typical weak venal type, Georgia may spiral out of Russia’s control. Of course, that could be a big disaster, but still can’t help but sneer delightedly at Russia losing, if that’s the case.
teezyskeezy
@Gin & Tonic: That would certainly change the board.
devore
Thanks Adam.
Melancholy Jaques
What are the issues in Georgia? Did this come out of nowhere or was it developing for a while and I missed it?
zhena gogolia
@Melancholy Jaques: A long while.
YY_Sima Qian
I haven’t followed the Caucuses very much, but how does any pro-Russian party win elections in Georgia after 2008?!
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: The history there is complex, but Georgian Dream (the party) was formed as a reaction against the Saakashvili government, for a variety of issues.
Jay
@Melancholy Jaques:
The current issue is a proposed Law, copied from ruZZia that requires NGO’s etc to register as “Foreign Agents”. In ruZZia it was used, once they had a list, to ban their activities and arrest their Admin and employees.
@YY_Sima Qian:
stealth, ruZZian interference, Covid and the economy.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: I can understand that dynamic, given how problematic a character Saakashvili has always been, but why does anti-Saakashvili have to mean w/ pro-Russia? I would have thought Georgian voters would reject such position out of hand.
wjca
What would seriously change the board would be a serious attempt by Georgia to push the Russians out of the parts of Georgia (~20% of the country) they have been occupying since 2008.
I somehow doubt that they have the military firepower to make a serious push. But if they tried, Russia would be looking at a 2 front war. And lots more Russian territory in range of even relatively short range weapons.
Amusing side thought: would Empty Greene oppose a measure labeled Defense of Georgia Act? I’m guessing she has no clue that the Republic of Georgia exists.
Gin & Tonic
@YY_Sima Qian: It was not always pro-russian. To me, this looks like a Yanukovych-2013 moment, with a hard right turn that takes the populace by surprise. It remains to be seen whether this plays out more like Ukraine or Belarus.
YY_Sima Qian
@Gin & Tonic: Ah, that makes sense.
Melancholy Jaques
@Jay:
So, if I understand, it is this law plus the view that it represents Russian encroachment on Georgia’s people, plus general hostility toward Russia?
Jay
@Melancholy Jaques:
Kinda, more bait and switch. The people and platforms the Georgian’s elected Georgia Dream to enact, are 180 degrees from what they voted for, and have become very Putinesque.
Bill Arnold
Wild!
Illegal use of CS gas by Russia was well documented. The evidence for use of chloropicrin must be quite clear. Which in turn means that if true, then Russians must be confident that they’ll be able to propagandize themselves out of a general perception that they are guilty.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Jay
Always check whom you are donating to,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/29/red-cross-decides-against-suspending-russian-branch-despite-links-to-kremlin-war-machine
Not only is the RCC aiding ruZZia’s war and genocide, but they have done nothing to fulfil their requirements regarding things like POW’s.
Gin & Tonic
@Jay: The ICRC has been useless for years. Nobody should ever donate to them, or to the American Red Cross.
Jay
@Gin & Tonic:
any Red Cross.
YY_Sima Qian
OT: The Biden team really is obsessed w/ a comprehensive deal w/ the KSA, apparently even w/o the Israeli component to guarantee the formation of a Palestinian state. This is getting to brain dead level of obtuse. The only conceivable “win” for the U.S. in this scenario is “advantage” in the Great Power Competition w/ the PRC in the ME.
Of course, even w/ such a deal the KSA will continue to play the U.S. & the PRC off against each other, will continue to sell oil to the PRC, continue to purchase green tech from the PRC, continue to work w/ Huawei to build its smart city & mass surveillance initiatives, & continue its limited rapprochement w/ Iran.
David Burbach at the U.S. NWC had some pithy takes on Twitter:
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
or,……..
Since TIFG, and Jarvanka descended the escalator to power, a key diplomatic push by the US has been to normalize relations by regional neighbors and power blocks, (not Iran/Syria), with Israel to “stabilize” the region.
A US/Saw-di agreement on the shape of Palestine, hems Israel into a corner. Kuwait, the UAE, Turkey and Egypt will be next.
YY_Sima Qian
I don’t see how a U.S.-KSA agreement hems in Israel at all, since the U.S. has been incapable of holding Israel accountable on anything.
& virtually no expert I am following thinks security guarantees to the KSA is a good idea (but that could just be the info bubble I am in). This from an administration that was going to hold MBS accountable.
wjca
Well, at least you know there aren’t any total fools (at least on that subject) in the bubble with you.
I’ve generally got no use for theocracies. But given a choice between one whose people have been even nominally civilized for only a couple of generations, or one whose people have been civilized for millennia, I’d definitely got for the latter. Especially for the far greater potential for the theocrats to get ejected from power.
In Iran, regime change (from the inside!) seems entirely possible. Certainly not easy, but it’s definitely not unthinkable that the general public would force a change.
But in Saudi Arabia? The general public is still mentally (and education-wise) where they were a century or more ago. The elites, who have at least been exposed to the modern world, are a tiny sliver, with no power to overthrow the current regime, even in the unlikely event that they wished to.
All of which is to say that an alliance with KSA makes no sense today. Yes, they’ve got lots of cheap oil. But we’re an oil exporter these days; we just don’t need them any more.
EDT fixed typos
Jay
@YY_Sima Qian:
The US has had security deals with Saw-di Arabia since the Brits left.
If the US and the Saw-di’s are on the same page regarding Palestine, then “normalization” between Saw-di and Israel can be contingent on Israel accepting the “vision” for Palestine.
Not saying it will work, but it may create a new pressure point,
Turkey is already applying it’s pressure points,
YY_Sima Qian
Feels like an abusive relationship:
Manyakitty
@zhena gogolia: I remember Tony Bourdain made a show in Georgia and they showed Russian soldiers literally stealing land every day by moving the border markers a little further back.
WTAF.