Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The words do not have to be perfect.

The frogs are rarely mistaken.

The Supreme Court cannot be allowed to become the ultimate, unaccountable arbiter of everything.

Innocent people don’t delay justice.

Fight them, without becoming them!

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

Israel is using food as a weapon of war. Unforgivable.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

He really is that stupid.

President Biden is doing good where he can, and getting it done.

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

“What are Republicans afraid of?” Everything.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Cole is on a roll !

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

… gradually, and then suddenly.

You know it’s bad when the Project 2025 people have to create training videos on “How To Be Normal”.

The problem people have with Biden’s age is the color of the VPs skin.

If you’re looking for someone who’s young and athletic, go watch a fucking movie.

Maybe you would prefer that we take Joelle’s side in ALL CAPS?

Fani Willis claps back at Trump chihuahua, Jim Jordan.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 736: Ukraine Downs Three More Russian SU-34s While Putin Rattles His Brittle Saber

War for Ukraine Day 736: Ukraine Downs Three More Russian SU-34s While Putin Rattles His Brittle Saber

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The House has passed another short term stepped CR to get through to 8 and 22 MAR 2024, when the appropriators are supposed to have completed their bills in both chambers and have them ready for votes. Now we see which member, if any, of the GOP minority caucus in the Senate decides to hold things up there using procedural gimmicks or whether this passes the Senate quickly and keeps the government open past tomorrow.

The Ukrainians downed three more SU-34s today.

February is the shortest month of the year, but our sky defenders have achieved the greatest results in downing russian jets since October 2022.

The Ukrainian Air Force destroyed:
◾️ten Su-34 fighter-bombers
◾️two Su-35 fighters
◾️one A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft.

It seems like being a russian military plane pilot is the worst job in the world.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose – address by the President of Ukraine.

29 February 2024 – 19:09

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

First. A few summaries of the visits. The key thing is new defense agreements, new packages. There will be more artillery and more joint production with our partners. We use every meeting and every day to provide more capabilities to our warriors. I am grateful to all our partners who help us in the way we need. And in a timely manner, without delays.

We had good talks in Albania – as always, principled support. And not only in terms of our bilateral relations, but also in terms of how to make the dialogue with those states that are still reserved in their support more meaningful. Mr. Prime Minister Rama, thank you once again.

This was already the second Ukraine – South East Europe Summit. We had good meetings with representatives of Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. I shouldn’t disclose all the details now, but I can say that we managed to achieve exactly what we expected. In addition, all the participants of the summit, all the countries of Southeastern Europe, will take part in the Global Peace Summit – the first summit on the Peace Formula at the level of leaders. It is planned to be held in Switzerland. And we already see opportunities for broad representation of countries from around the world.

It was about a just peace, about the first summit of leaders on the Peace Formula, about the opportunities in the world today to decrease chaos and destruction that the Crown Prince and I talked about in Saudi Arabia. It was a very profound, positive conversation. I am grateful for the attention to Ukraine and for the advice. We need to ensure the widest possible participation of the global community in addressing global issues. The restoration of the full force of international law and the prevention of aggression is exactly that kind of issue. We also talked about joint economic and technological projects with Saudi Arabia. We appreciate such cooperation. And it is important that our teams implement project agreements as quickly as possible. Both of our countries will benefit from this.

Today, I also held a meeting on the European direction – our relations with the European Union, the tasks for this year, integration in general, and specifically on relations with our neighbors in the European Union. Our priority is clear: all existing agreements must be implemented, and every word that is spoken must be put into practice. This is exactly the approach Ukraine is taking on the European direction. And it is thanks to this that we have already achieved historic results.

This year should be a time of real negotiations on accession. We can start as early as spring and take the first negotiating steps. This year should also be a time of maximum pragmatism in relations with our neighbors. Everyone sees that Russia is not going to stop. They in Moscow want an arms race and new waves of destabilization. All of us in Europe need to realize this clearly. If the freedom of one falls, the freedom of all the others will not withstand either. This is the reality. We have to defend ourselves. And we can defend ourselves. We must achieve our common goals.

I thank everyone who helps!

I thank everyone who is at combat posts, on combat missions, in battle right now. Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Kupyansk, Bakhmut sector, Avdiivka sector, and the Southern sectors. It is worth remembering that global stability rests solely on the courage and dedication of Ukrainian warriors and our entire nation. It is Ukrainian names that are mentioned in the frontline reports, but everyone understands and sees that Putin’s intentions are much broader. A world in which terror wins would please no one, which is exactly why Putin must lose. Our people in Ukraine are capable of ensuring this – with sufficient support. Support with what the world already has in its weapons depots, in the norms of international law, and in the minds of its leaders.

Glory and gratitude to all our heroes! May the memory of each of our warriors – every Ukrainian man and woman who gave their lives for the sake of Ukraine – be bright and eternal.

Glory to Ukraine!

As winter slowly gives way to spring, the question is will US aid come.

Germany:

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has just clarified his reasons for denying a delivery of Taurus KEPD-350 to #Ukraine. He speaks of the possibility of hitting specific targets in Moscow if the weapon is mishandled, and therefore Germany would need to “participate”, without going into details.

He also repeats his statement that others (France and/or Great Britain) have made sure that they know exactly where and how their weapons (SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow) are being used. This time, however, he does not mention any soldiers on Ukrainian soil.

France:

More from The Financial Times:

France and Germany’s public spat over military support to Ukraine is exacerbating arguments delaying an agreement to pump €5bn into the EU’s fund for weapon shipments, as they bicker over separate demands regarding its rules.

Context: The European Peace Facility (EPF), funded by the bloc’s 27 members outside of the EU budget, partly reimburses capitals for weapons provided to Kyiv. It is overdrawn and needs replenishing.

At a meeting of EU ambassadors yesterday, France continued to demand the EPF only reimburse weapons manufactured in the EU or Norway, arguing that EU money spent to help Ukraine should simultaneously develop the bloc’s defence industry, not third countries’.

But other countries, including Italy, Poland and Finland, want more flexibility, arguing that Ukraine’s ammunition needs are critical and EU producers can’t meet them.

France’s objection comes despite President Emmanuel Macron vowing to support a separate Czech-led initiative to buy artillery shells from outside the EU.

“We will mobilise bilateral financing as well as multilateral,” Macron said. But while he supports (bilaterally) using French cash to buy non-EU materiel, he is blocking others using EU cash to (multilaterally) do the same.

French officials counter that the Czech idea is a short-term fix, and the EPF should remain strategic.

“Certainly, let’s prioritise ‘buy European’,” said one EU diplomat involved in the negotiations. “But let’s not cut off our nose to spite our face.”

Separately, Germany argues the (substantial) value of its bilateral military donations should cancel out its share of the €5bn top-up.

Given Germany contributes about a quarter of the EPF’s funding, other member states oppose this offset demand because it would significantly reduce its liquidity.

The wider context here is the acrimonious war of words between Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Macron’s Monday remark that he “could not rule out” western troops deploying in Ukraine was immediately rebuffed by Berlin, who shot back that Paris should instead send more weapons.

Berlin is the EU’s biggest military supporter of Ukraine by a vast margin. It has vowed to send €7.1bn in 2024, and is increasingly irritated by Paris’ far smaller pledges.

“Macron’s ‘troops’ stunt was about portraying him as a staunch defender of Kyiv and distracting from the money,” said another frustrated EU diplomat. “It has infuriated the Germans.”

Officials caught in the crossfire remain confident of an agreement before the March 21 EU leaders’ summit. But most reckon that while the German issue should be resolvable with creative accounting — a Brussels speciality — France’s ideological stance may only be solved by someone backing down.

These two schmucks in Paris and Berlin are going to ensure that Czech President Pavel is never going to be able to secure the funding from his EU partners to purchase the 155mm rounds he has found in order to send them to Ukraine.

If Ukraine loses this war, it will not be lost in the Donbas or on the Dnipro, it will be lost in Washington DC, Paris, and Berlin!

This Russian abetted crap on the Polish side of the Ukrainian border isn’t helping either:

Yesterday, there was a backlash from the Polish community for me saying that Polish actions on the border are equaling cooperation with Russia. While many Poles got very angry, the voices of many Ukrainians remained unheard in Poland for a long time. When a group of small, pro-Kremlin stooges mixed with justly concerned farmers engaged in illegal actions, vandalizing grain in a country with wheat and a blue sky on its banner, which went through Holodomor, and where throwing away bread is a cultural taboo, it was an act of sacrilege. They were not only blocking grain but also blocking a lot of unrelated goods from private funds and volunteers – like drone parts, vehicles, tourniquets, and many other goods for the frontline.

Before moving forward, I want to note that Ukrainians are extremely thankful and won’t forget the help provided by Poland, as well as the personal acts of Polish volunteers and regular people who aided millions of Ukrainian refugees, far outweighing the harm done by an unrepresentative group of people. I am grateful to the Polish people for the support provided. That being said, gratitude doesn’t grant immunity from criticism, nor does it cancel the fact that Poland, as a state (excluding countless individual acts of kindness), pursues its strategic interests and deals with an existential threat from the East that openly doubts Polish statehood. You know, as I know, that if Ukraine falls and gets occupied, you will have another border with Russia – a nightmare scenario for all of us.

As an individual (I am not an elected official or representative), I think the concerns of Polish farmers are legitimate. I understand this is a real problem for some individuals facing imminent income loss compared to the theoretical occupation of Ukraine in a few years. But I fail to see how the destruction of grain from the sealed train headed to Morocco, playing air raid sirens to buses with women and children fleeing the war, or the blockade of non-agricultural goods helps the situation. The biggest problem is that my words comparing such actions to Russian actions have sparked a much larger argument and smear campaign than the actions of these people, whom even Polish people are calling Kremlin puppets!

You rightfully say that my words hurt you, but the actions of these people hurt Ukrainians for months, and many of you remained silent and ignored that millions of Ukrainians felt betrayed – a backstab from a friend is always the most painful.

I don’t hold a grudge against Polish people, but just as you love your country, I love mine, and if bringing attention to the problem required me to say unpleasant things, so be it. I won’t apologize for my words, nor do I expect an apology from those who insulted me and felt that my words were unjust

It’s up to you to decide whether the discord should continue, but the problem needs mutual addressing. I will refrain from comparing Polish actions with Russian actions in the future, as this is unjust and not helpful, but in return, I ask you to spend just as much energy on Russian stooges in your country, as you spent on me.

The Avdiivka front:

 

Putin gave his state of nation address today. It was long, stultifying, and bellicose all at the same time.

The Financial Times has details:

Vladimir Putin has said that western support for Ukraine risks triggering a global war, in his most explicit threat to use nuclear weapons since he ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

In his state of the nation speech on Thursday, the Russian president told the country’s political elite that claims his country intended to attack Europe were “nonsense”.

But he said any increase in western support for Ukraine “really risks a conflict using nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of all of civilisation”.

Referring to French President Emmanuel Macron’s refusal to rule out sending western troops to Ukraine this week, Putin said Russia remembered “the fate of those who once sent their contingents to our country.

“Now the consequences for possible interveners will be much more tragic,” he added. “We also have weapons that can strike targets on their territory.”

Putin said that western supplies of advanced weaponry and the prospect of a Nato troop deployment risked provoking nuclear conflict. “They think this is some kind of game. They are blinded by their own superiority complex,” he said.

The EU on Thursday said Putin’s threat with nuclear weapons was “absolutely unacceptable and inappropriate” as he was the one who started the war in Ukraine and “advancing instability in the wider region”.

Ahead of the Russian president’s expected re-election, “he is deceiving the nation” and reviving “repression that resembles Stalinist times”, said the European Commission.

The Kremlin had billed Putin’s speech as a road map for the next six years of his rule ahead of Russia’s presidential elections next month. After 24 years in power, he faces no credible challengers, having quashed most opposition and outlawed dissent.

Pro-Kremlin cinema owners across the country held free screenings of the speech, which began at midday in Moscow and revealed how far the war in Ukraine and the strategic rivalry with the west has consumed Putin’s attention.

“They need some dependent, declining, dying space where they can do whatever they want,” Putin said of the west. “They want to do to Russia what they have done in many regions of the world, including Ukraine — to bring discord into our house and weaken us from the inside.”

Putin confirmed Russia would beef up troop deployments on its border with Nato countries to “neutralise threats” created by Sweden and Finland joining the alliance following his invasion of Ukraine.

Although Putin said Russia was prepared to hold arms control talks with the US, which have in effect collapsed since the full-scale invasion, he made it clear Russia was also interested in increasing its ability to strike western countries.

He boasted that the country’s nuclear forces were ready for use, and added that work would soon conclude on new weapons systems, which he has claimed are essentially impossible to shoot down.

“We are dealing with a state whose ruling circles are taking openly hostile actions against us,” said Putin. “They are planning in all seriousness to discuss strategic stability with us while simultaneously, as they say themselves, trying to inflict a strategic defeat on us on the battlefield.”

Denying US claims that Russia plans to deploy a nuclear weapon in space, Putin accused the west of trying to “drag us into an arms race, repeating the trick they played with the Soviet Union in the 1980s” when the USSR overspent on its military, hastening its collapse in 1991.

He said Russia would work to “create the outlines for equal and inseparable security in Eurasia”, adding that “without a sovereign, strong Russia, no stable world order is possible”.

William Alberque, a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Putin’s attempts at nuclear coercion were designed to scare the west into limiting its support for Kyiv at a crucial point in the war.

“He hopes by escalating threats, he can instil restraint or hesitation in western leaders making decisions on how to support Ukraine,” said Alberque.

But Russian analysts said the frequency with which Putin has resorted to nuclear threats risked making them less effective.

Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that despite Putin’s rhetoric, the Kremlin was wary of nuclear conflict.

“They do not want and are afraid of nuclear war,” he said, adding that “nuclear blackmail” had become pro forma for Putin.

More at the link.

As I’ve written repeatedly, Russia’s nuclear weapons use doctrine is misinformation and agitprop intended to, per their doctrine for setting the theater of operations, achieve dominance via shaping the information domain prior to ever beginning operations in the actual world.  It always has been and always be smoke and mirrors.

Speaking of Russian nuclear weapons strategy and policy, you may have seen reporting or social media posts that a bunch of leaked documents raised worrying new concerns about what Putin might be planning. Turns out it is not something that should trouble the sleep of the residents of Lawrence, KS.

That’s enough for tonight.

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36Comments

  4. 4.

    japa21

    Thanks again Adam.  And sorry for my brain non-function last night.  I must be getting older than I thought.

  7. 7.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Nukular Biskits: There is no reason as long as they’re legitimate military targets, they take suitable efforts under International Humanitarian Law and the Laws of Armed Conflict (IHL and LOAC) to reasonably avoid civilian casualties and collateral damage, mitigate civilian harm, and, under just war theory, the strikes are proportional.

    Scholz is just a coward.

  9. 9.

    Nukular Biskits

    @Adam L Silverman:

    Scholz is just a coward.

    I’m inclined to agree.

    Having said that, though, I haven’t seen much reporting on Ukrainian offensive operations (at least those not covert or via guerilla action) across the border.

    Is this primarily because most Ukrainian resources are engaged in defensive operations within Ukraine itself (and by “defensive”, I’m including offensive operations as well)?

  15. 15.

    Another Scott

    @Adam L Silverman: OTOH, Scholz is leading a coalition government that is losing to the CDU in opinion polls. Yet the CDU isn’t able to convince the Bundestag to implement its preferred policies.

    E.g. AA.com (from a week ago):

    German lawmakers on Thursday rejected a motion on the delivery of long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine, despite growing pressure from Kyiv and allies to boost arms deliveries.

    The motion, which was put forward by the center-right CDU/CSU alliance, was backed by 181 lawmakers, while 480 lawmakers voted against the bid, and five abstained.

    It was the second attempt of Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) to build support for the delivery of German advanced weapon systems and long-range missiles to Ukraine, after their similar motion was rejected last month.

    Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been cautious so far about delivering Taurus missiles to Ukraine, fearing that they can be used to attack targets in Russia, and make Germany a party to the conflict.

    On Thursday, lawmakers from Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) and their coalition partners, the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), voted against the CDU/CSU’s motion.

    Liberal politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, the head of the parliament’s defense committee, was the only lawmaker from the coalition, who voted in favor of the motion.

    “I don’t want to be accused one day of not having done the right thing at the right moment,” she said during the debate at the parliament, and called for delivering Taurus missiles to strengthen the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.

    She warned that “Ukraine is running out of time,” and Kyiv was in need of more immediate military firepower, to counter Russia’s attacks.

    Politics is complicated and messy. Germany is, in spite of that, still 2nd only to the USA in providing military support to Ukraine (scroll down).

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  17. 17.

    Another Scott

    Biden’s statement on the CR tonight. WhiteHouse.gov:

    Statement from President Joe Biden on Passage of the Bipartisan Government Funding Bill

    This bipartisan agreement prevents a damaging shutdown and allows more time for Congress to work toward full-year funding bills. That’s good news for the American people. But I want to be clear: this is a short-term fix—not a long-term solution.

    In the days ahead, Congress must do its job and pass full-year funding bills that deliver for the American people. And House Republicans must act on the bipartisan National Security Supplemental, which already passed the Senate with overwhelming bipartisan support and would pass the House if it was brought to a vote.

    During my meeting with Congressional Leaders this week, we all agreed on the vital importance of supporting Ukraine. That understanding must now be backed with action. Every day that House Republicans refuse to hold a vote on the bipartisan National Security Supplemental, the consequences for Ukraine grow more severe.

    In addition to arming Ukraine as they defend against Russian attacks every single day, this bill will help ensure that Israel can defend itself against Hamas and other threats. And it will provide critical humanitarian aid to the Palestinian people and those impacted by conflicts around the world. Because the truth is, the aid flowing into Gaza is nowhere near enough, and nowhere fast enough. Innocent lives are on the line.

    It is time for House Republicans to put our national security first and move with urgency to get this bipartisan bill to my desk.

    He’s not giving up. Neither should we.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  23. 23.

    wjca

    @sanjeevs: What do you think is the reason for the disastrous month for the Russian Air Force? 

    Deferred maintenance.

    Those planes have been working harder than they have in a long time.  But Russian military priorities are on things other than maintenance, which is just dull, boring stuff.  Unfortunately,  equipment just doesn’t keep working well without it.

  24. 24.

    hotshoe

    I know that a Russian pilot can’t just stand on the airfield and tell their commanding officer that they refuse to fly because the Ukrainians are so successful at shooting down Russian planes … but when are those dudes gonna get a clue that it would be better to defect/be a prisoner of war in Ukraine than to end up in the dirt, ashes, and burnt metal?

    I can’t believe that Russian govt are successful at suppressing the bad news that they’ve lost yet another plane.

    People talk and gossip and pass on news to each other; Russians can’t protest openly, but they must know how bad their odds are nowadays.​​​

  26. 26.

    frosty

    @wjca: Deferred maintenance …

    I believe, based on the condition of several things that I’m responsible for, that a shorter term is “neglect”,

  27. 27.

    YY_Sima Qian

    To date, the RuAF has been used very conservatively to preserve the precious assets & personnel. The fact that the Su-34s keep fly into risky environments despite the mounting losses suggest to me that Russia is seeking to exploit the moment of Ukrainian vulnerability (due to the worsening famine of munitions) & put pressure on Ukrainian defenses, especially since Ukraine does not seem have build the equivalent of a “Surovikin Line”. Su-34s are fighter bombers, generally should be used to attack logistical/C&C nodes near the front. They are not (or at least should not be) used for close air support at the line of contact.

    Whether the Russian military has the capability & capacity to take advantage is another matter altogether.

  28. 28.

    Anoniminous

    @YY_Sima Qian:

    Neither side has shown an ability for sustained Bewegungskrieg –  combined arms attack blasting through the front line, bypassing enemy strong points, creating deep penetrations, disrupting and destroying the enemy’s Command and Control creating the conditions to move from a tactical to operational victory.   Thus the current Positional Warfare that favors the Russians because Putin cares nothing about how many causalities his forces are taking and a ton of dumb artillery pounding the Ukrainian front lines.

  29. 29.

    Anoniminous

    @Nukular Biskits: ​
     

    why should Ukraine NOT be considering hitting military targets within Russia proper?

    Because the leaders of the EU and in the US are morons and won’t let them. Ukraine can’t afford to do it anyway because the rotten dribble of munitions will dry up. Ukraine was stupid enough to believe the US & etc. 30 years ago, surrendered their nuclear weapons, and are now paying the price for their gullibility.

  30. 30.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    until one side collapses, you arn’t going to see it.

    Special Kherson Cat noted that the ruZZian’s launched an attack with 24 tanks and IFV’s with half a company of “tank riders” at one of the villages near Adakiva, (sp).

    They didn’t even make it halfway. Between the landmines, drones, cluster munitions, ATGM’s and heavy MG’s, they all got smoked.

    Attacking a UA trench line with just 2 platoons holding it.

    Too many eyes in the sky.

    As one UA soldier put it, you can’t hide anywhere or anything.

  31. 31.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Anoniminous: I have read suggestions that Ukraine allow Russia to achieve a limited breakthrough, & then slaughter the Russian columns as they inevitably get discombobulated attempting to conduct maneuver warfare. Better than a positional war of attrition that play to some of Russia’s limited strengths.

    An awful risk to take, though, & not viable w/o adequate munitions. But then, no strategy is viable w/o adequate munitions.

  32. 32.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Jay: I am confident that Ukrainian defense will continue to prove effective, as long as the artillery shells, mortar bombs, ATGMs, & .50 cal. machine gun rounds last.

  33. 33.

    Jay

    @Anoniminous:

    Over half of the EU doesn’t care who, what or where Ukraine uses their supplied weapons on. The UK and France assist Ukraine with targeting their SCALP, etc, because the UA hasn’t mastered that yet.

    Germany and the US does.

  34. 34.

    Geminid

    @Jay: I think you’ve read Stijn Mitzer’s Oryx article about Turkish arms suppies to Ukraine. Mitzer noted that unlike other Nato countries, Turkiye did not restrict the use of it’s weapons to Ukrainian territory. Ukraine made use of that freedom early in the war, before Russia upped their air defense against TB-2 drones.

    Another interesting aspect of Mitzer’s article* is that Turkiye and Ukraine have been very reticent about Turkish arms supplies. While other Nato countries typically announce miltary aid packages publically, Mitzer said he only learned about the Turkish weapons when they appeared on the battlefield, or from Ukrainian officials speaking off the record.

    * Stijn Mitzer “The Stalwart Ally: Turkish Arms Supplies to Ukraine,” Oryx November 21, 2022.

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    Not a long article from the Economist, but very worthwhile read:

    A new tragedy shows anarchy rules in Gaza
    A shooting and stampede kill 112 and injure hundreds
    Feb 29th 2024

    Early on february 29th death descended on a coastal road in Gaza. As many as 112 people were killed and hundreds more were injured, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, when catastrophe befell an aid convoy of 30 lorries carrying desperately needed food. As with many events in the war between Israel and Hamas, the facts are destined to remain fiercely contested. Nonetheless this tragedy’s importance will go far beyond the immediate loss of life. The images of hungry people jostling for food illustrate the dearth of aid reaching Gaza. The anarchic circumstances surrounding so many deaths highlight a power vacuum there that no one, least of all Israel, knows how to fill. And another civilian calamity will test America’s appetite for letting the war rumble on.

    The incident was in northern Gaza, where the Israeli Defence Forces (idf) has dominated for months. All agree the deaths occurred after the food convoy had passed an Israeli checkpoint and was surrounded by thousands of hungry civilians. Accounts differ over what happened next. Palestinian eye-witnesses say idf soldiers fired on the crowd, killing some and sparking a stampede that claimed more lives. Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, called it an “ugly massacre conducted by the Israeli occupation army”.

    Contradicting this, the idf says the stampede began as people surrounded the vehicles. Aerial video footage purporting to be of the incident shows many people running around and between trucks (see picture). The Israelis say that people were killed and crushed during this stampede, the first stage of the incident. In the second stage “several hundred metres away” from the first, they say, a crowd began moving towards the checkpoint that the convoy had already passed. An Israeli military spokesperson said idf soldiers there “identified a threat” and after firing warning shots used only “limited fire”.Further investigations may reveal more details, and perhaps make it easier to establish an objective picture of what took place. Nonetheless, three things are already obvious. One is that the lack of food and other aid is causing mayhem in Gaza. Israeli security officials have been highly critical of the policy of the government of Binyamin Netanyahu, which has dragged its feet on allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza from Israeli territory. Mr Netanyahu has tried to block cabinet discussions on alternative authorities which could organise food distribution into Gaza. The World Food Programme has warned that “if nothing changes, a famine is imminent in northern Gaza.”

    The second consequence is another blow to the idea that local organisations unconnected to Hamas could quickly take de facto administrative control of Gaza. It is striking that the incident took place in northern Gaza, where Israel has largely ejected Hamas. The truck convoy was organised by private Palestinian firms. Yet the picture that emerges is not of an emerging new hierarchy, but of fear and chaos. Israel is unwilling to enforce public order and unwilling to exit, and no one else is able or prepared to step in. That matters because Mr Netanyahu’s plan for the “day after” in Gaza, a one-page document which was released to the cabinet on February 22nd, envisions administrative control by local groups “who are not affiliated with terrorist countries or groups and are not financially supported by them” who will rise from the rubble. Rule by mafias and mobs appears more likely.

    The final knock-on effect relates to America. It has been pushing for a temporary ceasefire and hostage-release by Ramadan, which it sees as a way of catalysing a reset in the conflict, as well as creating a path to talks over a two-state solution. Mr Netanyahu said on February 29th that Israel was interested in a temporary ceasefire agreement but that “Hamas’ demands are delusional.” He is wary of a ceasefire, which could cause his fragile coalition to collapse. Whoever is to blame for the latest tragedy, it piles on the pressure on all sides to find a way to pause the fighting. One Israeli official said that “we have had a much longer window of legitimacy from the Americans than we expected but it’s about to close.”

    The last line is really damning as far as the Biden Administration’s approach to Israel’s War on Gaza is concerned.

  36. 36.

    Another Scott

    @Jay:

    KyivIndependent.com:

    Russia ramps up attacks in the Avdiivka sector, but Ukrainian forces hold ground and have even retaken some lost positions, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the commander of the Tavria group of forces, said on Telegram on March 1.

    Ukraine was forced to withdraw from Avdiivka, a key front-line city in Donetsk Oblast, on Feb. 17 and from other nearby villages weeks later. Russia is intensifying offensive actions along the front as Ukraine’s Armed Forces face serious ammunition shortages due to delays in U.S. aid.

    According to Tarnavskyi, Russian forces are increasing artillery strikes and infantry assaults near Avdiivka while calling up reserves. The Ukrainian general described the situation as “dynamic,” as Ukraine’s forces retook lost ground in some areas and set up additional firing positions and observation points.

    Over the past day, Ukrainian troops repelled 25 Russian attacks in the Avdiivka sector, the commander said, killing or wounding 319 soldiers and destroying 36 pieces of equipment.

    Moscow’s troops have been focusing their efforts also near Chasiv Yar, a city west of occupied Bakhmut.

    The Khortytsia group of forces’ spokesperson, Illia Yevlash, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that Russia accumulated a large force in the sector and is currently launching a “powerful thrust” toward Chasiv Yar.

    Russia sees the city as crucial for further advances toward Kostyantinivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk, Yevlash said.

    “Preparations for Chasiv Yar’s defense have been underway for a long time, even when the enemy captured Bakhmut,” Yevlash noted, adding that the city is protected by minefields and anti-tank barriers.

    Russian forces are trying to find weak spots in the defenses and focus efforts there to break through, according to the spokesperson.

    As Milley said – “it’s going to be long, it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be bloody…”

    :-(

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

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