Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“When somebody takes the time to draw up a playbook, they’re gonna use it.”

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

Happy indictment week to all who celebrate!

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Meanwhile over at truth Social, the former president is busy confessing to crimes.

White supremacy is terrorism.

“Cheese and Kraken paired together for the appetizer trial.”

I’m pretty sure there’s only one Jack Smith.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

He wakes up lying, and he lies all day.

Every day Vance writes another chapter in the book called “Worst VP Pick Ever”.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

“Why isn’t this Snickers bar only a nickel?”

Donald Trump, welcome to your everything, everywhere, all at once.

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Cole, when it comes to calico cats, restraint is overrated.

It’s not hopeless, and we’re not helpless.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

American History and Black History can not be separated.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 741: Ukrainian Naval Drone Strikes Hard!

War for Ukraine Day 741: Ukrainian Naval Drone Strikes Hard!

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A painting by NEIVANMADE entitled and captions "Kid Killers: Are Fish Food Now." That is painted in red in the upper right corner on a white background. Below it is blue water with a Russian navy ship or plane sinking below the waves. The wreckage has the "Z" symbol painted on it in red. Written below that in blue across the bottom white border is: "You below with your breath, and the sea covered them."

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

The Ukrainians have sunk another Russian warship.

+1 russian ship was upgraded to a submarine. Tonight, the special unit of the

@DI_Ukraine

“Group 13” attacked the patrol ship of the russian Black Sea Fleet, “Sergei Kotov,” worth $65 million. As a result of the attack by Magura V5 naval drones, the russian ship of project 22160, “Sergei Kotov,”  suffered damage to the stern, right, and left sides.  Nice start of the day! Great job, warriors.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Today, the International Criminal Court has taken another step: arrest warrants for the commanders of Russian murderers – Long-Range Aviation and Black Sea Fleet – address by the President of Ukraine

5 March 2024 – 19:18

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the International Criminal Court has taken another step – arrest warrants have been issued for two more representatives of the Russian leadership. This time – military leadership. Commanders of the Russian murderers – Long-Range Aviation and Black Sea Fleet of the terrorist state. In particular, they have carried out and are carrying out a terrorist campaign against our state and people targeting our energy sector and civilian infrastructure. These are obvious crimes – Russia’s war crimes and crimes against humanity. And this is exactly what the International Criminal Court is addressing in a principled fashion.

Once international justice starts working, it cannot be stopped. Justice for Ukraine, for Ukrainians, and for the international community as a whole will definitely be restored. I am thankful to Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court Karim Khan, to the entire team of the International Criminal Court and our Ukrainian team working to restore justice – all the officials who are investigating Russian war crimes, all the experts who are helping, the Prosecutor General and his Office, and all the law enforcement officers of Ukraine. Russian murderers will be held accountable – there is no doubt about it.

Today I want to thank all our warriors, all the units that are restoring security and control in the Ukrainian skies and in our Black Sea. Ukraine has proved what we are capable of, what our strength is capable of. This is evidenced by the number of downed Russian military aircraft and the capabilities of our guys against the Russian fleet. There are no longer any safe harbors for Russian terrorists in the Black Sea and there will never be any more. And there will be no safe space in the sky for them, provided our Ukrainian strength is sufficient. This applies to both supplies from partners and our domestic production.

Today I held several meetings on this. There was a report from the Ministry of Strategic Industries on our defense production, as well as relevant communication with partners. We are implementing the recently reached agreements on supplies and joint projects in the shortest possible time. I am grateful to everyone in the world who helps in a principled, timely and uninterrupted manner.

I also held a meeting with the international bloc of the government and the Office on key issues in certain areas. We are planning our actions for this month, for this spring, to provide Ukraine with the necessary strength and capabilities. Ukraine has to achieve its goals, and all of us in the world have to restore the full force of international law. And when that happens, no terrorist state like Russia will be able to dictate anything either to its neighbors or to the whole world.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people.

Glory to Ukraine!

3 hours ago:

Germany:

The Financial Times has the details of Olaf’s cowardice:

Olaf Scholz’s message last week was clear: Berlin would not deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv because German soldiers would have to be sent to Ukraine to programme them. And that meant Germany would be dragged into war with Russia.

The German chancellor’s argument has now been blown apart — by his own military. A conversation between German air force officers that was intercepted and leaked by Russian media late last week revealed Ukrainian soldiers could operate the Taurus missiles without German “boots on the ground”, as long as they were adequately trained.

“The leak is official confirmation that the chancellor wasn’t telling the truth,” said Norbert Röttgen, an MP for the opposition Christian Democrats and member of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs committee. “It massively damages his credibility.”

Scholz’s allies have rallied to his defence. Rolf Mützenich, head of the chancellor’s Social Democrat (SPD) parliamentary group, told ARD TV on Sunday that the business of sending Tauruses to Ukraine was always “a political and legal grey zone which I myself wouldn’t want to set foot in”. “For that reason, [Scholz’s] decision is politically and legally reasonable,” he said.

Even before the leak, doubts were being expressed in western capitals about Scholz’s approach. Officials in London and Paris expressed dismay last week after he revealed publicly that British and French troops were on the ground in Ukraine helping to operate Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles — a situation he would not permit with the Tauruses.

But the eavesdropping affair has caused much more damage, triggering massive concern about the safety of German government communications as wars rage in Europe and the Middle East. Germany was “caught with its pants down, again”, lamented the mass circulation Bild Zeitung on Monday. “It’s as if [Russia’s leader Vladimir] Putin dropped a cluster bomb over Berlin,” said the Frankfurter Allgemeine.

It was in May 2023 that the Ukrainian authorities first asked for Taurus cruise missiles, one of the most modern weapons systems in the Bundeswehr’s arsenal. With a range of up to 500km they can be used against “high-value targets” such as bunkers or command posts and can penetrate several walls of reinforced concrete.

But in October, Scholz turned down the Ukrainian request. For many this was typical: he had long refused to supply Kyiv with German Leopard tanks, fearing Russian retaliation. But in January last year he finally bowed to intense domestic and international pressure and reversed course.

For months Scholz declined to explain his position on Tauruses. But last week he finally broke his silence, saying German soldiers would have to be stationed in Ukraine to programme the missiles. Berlin would then become directly involved in the war, an outcome he has consistently sought to avoid.

“German soldiers must not be connected at any point with the targets that this system reaches,” he said.

Fellow SPD politicians say Scholz’s caution has huge support among German voters, and the Russian leak has not changed that.

“People here like the way he cautiously weighs up the pros and cons of supplying different weapons systems,” said Nils Schmid, the SPD’s foreign policy spokesperson. “Like Scholz, they don’t want Germany to become a party to this war.”

Schmid added Germans also agreed with the chancellor about the risks of supplying Ukraine with “so impactful a weapon”. “You just don’t know how they would deploy it in an emergency situation,” he said.

But Scholz’s position on Taurus has raised hackles inside his own governing coalition. Worried about Ukraine’s recent setbacks on the battlefield and the US Congress’ failure to approve more military aid for Kyiv, liberal and Green MPs have urged a rethink on a missile that has the potential to significantly boost Ukraine’s military capabilities.

Late last month the three parties in Scholz’s coalition passed a resolution requesting the delivery of “long-range weapons systems” to Kyiv that could strike “far in the rear of the Russian aggressor”. Taurus was not named, but it was clearly implied.

It was also the main subject of the intercepted Luftwaffe call. The officers involved, who included Luftwaffe chief Ingo Gerhartz, were heard to say the missiles could be used by Ukraine to attack the bridge linking mainland Russia to the Crimean peninsula, among other targets. The men also said Ukrainian troops could be trained in Germany to use the missiles. But they stressed that Scholz’s government had still not given the green light for the missiles to be delivered to Kyiv.

Some in Scholz’s SPD think that could one day change. “The leak doesn’t reduce Scholz’s room for manoeuvre — he can still come to a different decision on Tauruses in the future,” Schmid said.

But others said Russia’s aim was to make sure Scholz would never be able to execute a U-turn on the missiles. “Russia has succeeded in creating the perfect political dilemma in Germany,” said Christian Mölling, a defence analyst with the German Council on Foreign Relations. “It will now be all the more difficult for Scholz to re-evaluate the situation and change his mind on the Tauruses after all.”

Johann Wadephul, the Christian Democrats’ spokesperson on foreign and defence affairs, said Putin’s aim was to “entangle Scholz in a web of hints and contorted explanations” to such an extent that it would be impossible for him to opt to supply the Tauruses in the future.

“Scholz has hunkered down in his refusal to send the missiles,” Wadephul said. “He doesn’t seem to understand that by doing that he’s become the best piece on Putin’s chessboard.”

More at the link.

France via Prague:

Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

“Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us.”

The EU’s new defense industrial strategy is out!

Here’s the summary from the European Commission:

With Russia’s unjustified war of aggression against Ukraine, high-intensity conflict has returned to our continent.  This is why a new, first-ever European Defence Industrial Strategy has been put forward. It sets a clear, long-term vision to achieve defence industrial readiness in the European Union. We need to have the defence systems and equipment ready when they are needed and in the quantities that are needed.

The Strategy sets out several new actions to achieve this:

  • encouraging EU countries to invest more, better, together and European. This will be promoted thanks to new programmes to buy and work more easily together at the European level.
  • making European defence industry stronger, more responsive and more innovative. Steps will also be taken to support research, boost investment and work on issues along supply chains. As part of this, an Office for Defence Innovation will open in Kyiv.
  • funding to readythe defence industry, through a new European Defence Industry Programme worth €1.5 billion and discussing defence needs for the next long-term EU budget
  • teaming up with partners across the globe – Ukraine will for instance be able to take part in EU defence industry programmes.

The Strategy also sets out a number of targets. By 2030, EU countries should:

  • buy at least 40% of the defence equipment by working together
  • spend at least half of their defence procurement budget on products made in Europe
  • trade at least 35% of defence goods between EU countries instead of with other countries

This will help make the EU safer and more resilient. It will not only benefit all of us in the EU, but also key allies including NATO and Ukraine.

Here’s the link to the fact sheet.

And here’s the link to the strategy itself.

This HIMARS had a damn good run!

A bit more on the naval drone strike:

It is interesting that in the last three known cases of naval kamikaze drone attacks on the Russian fleet, in each case the drones tried to attack the same place on the ship’s hull that had previously been damaged by the previous drone detonation. Which is possibly one of the tactics for naval drone strikes against ships.

 

That’s a good question.

Donetsk Oblast:

10 years ago today before the Russians occupied it.

The Avdiivka front.

Berdychi, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Interesting info from a russian military instructor who covered the defeat of at least two Russian assault groups in Berdychi that assaulted without artillery support. He says the majority of russian FPVs won’t even take off due to own EW efforts, rendering assault groups defenceless against Ukrainian fire.

Polohivs’kyi District, Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast:

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Moscow, Russia:

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

32Comments

  5. 5.

    Harrison Wesley

    Adam,  what is your opinion on the Victoria Nuland retirement?  This kind of came out of the blue to me, and it just seems kind of odd.  Thanks.

  7. 7.

    BeautifulPlumage

    From Steven Pifer Twitter (@steven_pifer):

    Kerch Bridge links #Crimea (part of #Ukraine) to Tuzla Island (also part of Ukraine).

    Hence no reason for Schultz to worry about Taurus missiles on RU territory if they are used to take out the bridge.

    (from Mar 3, apologies if this is duplicate)

  10. 10.

    coozledad

    It sounds (to my untrained ear) like the Russians are trying to counter the naval drones with small arms fire. Are deck guns unreliable at close range, or are the ships even equipped with anything to meet the threat?

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Harrison Wesley: I’m surprised she waited this long. These jobs take a lot out of people. Normally there’s turnover between year’s two and three of an administration. The bigger issue is whether her replacement can get through the Senate. Right now the entire senior political appointed leadership for policy, plans, and strategy is vacant because the undersecretary for policy nominee can’t seem to get out of committee in the Senate.

  13. 13.

    eversor

    Given the Navy sailor past of mine and a chunk of my career I can’t help but think of all the OSINT (and all the rest of the stuff that Trump leaked all over the place) is being collected and analyzed from this.

    To narrow down a bit more, this the first major conflict where we’ve seen bulk use of off the shelf in some cases drones fitted for combat among a bunch of other totally new methods and tactics used.  From my past and the cynical reality of data collection on that alone this thing is paying for itself.  I’m well aware how horrible all that is to say.

    I know damn well why Biden himself can’t go tout this fact on national TV and our “for Murika” gains have to be explained in “bombing shit creates jobs” but it’s worth noting.  Because it has not gone unoticed in my neck of the woods.  But I do wonder at, or if, witch point that becomes a campain option.  “Ukraine funding is great because jobs, we’ve seen what Russia’s cards actually are, also we just got to live stream the next generation of warfare and disect it without putting boots on the ground”.

  14. 14.

    AlaskaReader

    @Adam L Silverman: I see action on one nominee today, Ronald T. Keohane, to be an Assistant Secretary of Defense, vice James N. Stewart.

    Are these ongoing holdups still fallout from Tuberville or are there other actors involved?

    I’m going to assume the resistance to nominees is coming from one party, or are there persons identifiable so as to become a target for applied pressure from the public?.

  15. 15.

    eversor

    @coozledad:

    This requires an essay and way above my paygrade but as someone who has been on a ship…. though it’s been a while….

    When talking about defense against things (not talking planes, subs, or other ships) you’ve got three real options.  Surface to air, explosive shell via gun, SeaRAM/RAM (shoots missiles), and CIWS (close in weapons system, think angry R2-D2 with a giant gattling gun for a raging boner).  So I’m talking to the US Navy here I can’t speak for the Russian submarine club.

    All these things have ups and downs in terms of range (max and min) altitude (low and high) speed (slow and fast) and blah blah you get the point.  In theory a ship should be able to defend itself.  Practice is always another thing.  There’s also the issue that this sort of drone warfare is very new.  So who knows how anybodies defenses would hold up?

  16. 16.

    Anoniminous

    @eversor:

    Things are going to get downright interesting and informative if Ukraine does manufacture 1,000,000 drones and the EU does manufacture and give Ukraine 1,000,000 drones in 2024.  With those numbers even the current light weight on-board ordinance will wreak devastation on the Russian Army.

    ETA:  Moving from tens and hundreds to thousands and tens of thousands of drone attacks per day is War Changing.

  18. 18.

    Anoniminous

    @eversor: ​
     

    While capable kamikaze surface drones have obvious limitations. Eventually somebody is going to get the smarts to put a Fire-and-Forget anti-ship missile like the Exocet or YJ-62 on sea drones.

  19. 19.

    eversor

    @Anoniminous:

    Very much so.  And it’s a topic along with AI we have to deal with.  It’s also a topic that I’m remotely involved in dealing with.

    I can’t help but notice a massive difference about how this is all talked about at work, how it’s talked about on the news, how it’s talked about among the public, and how it’s talked about on the internet in places like this.

    A ton of different things are coming to a collision here fast and I really don’t like it.

  20. 20.

    eversor

    @coozledad:

    They are.  They are always looking at everything. DOD has thousands of people looking at issues.  I don’t think most people get how large the DOD and all the contractors around it are.  I’m in NOVA, it’s a company town!

  21. 21.

    Jay

    United 24 crowd funds the naval drones. Donate enough to fund a drone, and you get to name it.

    Rumour is, the sucessful drone was named NAFOnian BlownApart.

  23. 23.

    Anoniminous

    @eversor:

    Anyone who claims to understand what we are facing and isn’t deeply worried doesn’t understand what we are facing.

  25. 25.

    eversor

    @Anoniminous:

    A lot of what I support is collection of data and creating massive models of it.  More data better model.*  So from that aspect, this is free data that feeds money back to us and doesn’t cost lives**.  It’s a steal.  It’s also all very unerving at the same time.

  26. 26.

    Mart

    @eversor: I know nothing but I think I know that this war changes every way military planners should be thinking about war. Like start building millions of drones now.

    Also too, thanks Adam.

  29. 29.

    daveNYC

    @coozledad: There’s a limit to how far any deck guns or whatnots can depress in order to hit something, so once a drone gets close enough their defensive choices become more limited.  The Sergey Kotov had a chunky gun and some grenade launchers that at least had the capability of hitting the drones.  I think the bigger issue, at least for the Russian systems, is detecting them.  They’re small and low enough that they’re hanging out in the waves, so you need some good radar or optics to see them, preferably something looking down, which Russia doesn’t seem to have much of at the moment.

    From what I’ve read, people seem to think that something like a bofors with programmable shells would work pretty well, assuming you can detect the incoming drones.  Not sure if Russia can manage to do that though, not without the old MK1 eyeball.

    The Ukrainian tactic of hitting the stern first to try and limit mobility followed by blowing a hole in the side and then blowing a hole in the hole seems to be pretty well established at this point.

  30. 30.

    Paul in KY

    Just think it’s amazing how they are using a dinghy with a big engine & explosives to sink supposed state-of-the-art warships! I hope our navy people are checking that out and looking into ways to stop that kind of attack.

Comments are closed.