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Russia bombs Ukraine’s maternity hospitals; Republicans in the House can’t sort out supporting Ukraine.

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

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It’s a good piece. click on over. but then come back!!

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The US Supreme Court is on the ballot in november.

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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 752: The Updated Butcher’s Bill from Odesa

War for Ukraine Day 752: The Updated Butcher’s Bill from Odesa

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Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a black border. There are grey buildings with black windows along the left side. The center is a yellowy-grey, perhaps Ukrainian wheat fields. There is a black shadow figure striding through it. The figure's legs and feet are all that is visible of it. On the right side are red Zs, which symbolize Putin's/Russia's "Z" war/special military operation in Ukraine. The sky above the buildings is light grey. "GENOCIDE IS GOING BUT WHO EVEN CARES?" is painted in black in the upper left hand corner.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I am completely fried. Just a long week, not necessarily anything bad. So I’m just going to cover the basics tonight so I can go and rack out.

ETA at 10:00 PM EDT: I’m aware of the Starlink Snowflake news. I’ll try to get to it tomorrow night once I’ve gotten some rest.

The Lithuanian Foreign Minister is, as usual, correct:

More from Odesa:

“Today, one more employee of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, another victim of yesterday’s Russian attack on Odesa, died in the hospital from serious injuries,” Ihor Klymenko reported.

Thus, the death toll from the attack on Odesa on March 15 increased to 21.

“More than 70 people were injured”

President Zelenskyy addressed the increased casualty count from the Odesa attack in his daily address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

16 March 2024 – 20:37

Dear Ukrainians,

Today, unfortunately, the number of fatalities has increased after the strike on Odesa: twenty-one lives have been taken. My condolences to the families and loved ones. Necessary assistance is provided to all the wounded. Local authorities and the Ministry of Internal Affairs are providing support.

There will definitely be our military responses to Russia. These weeks have demonstrated to many that the Russian war machine has vulnerabilities that we can reach with our weapons. I am grateful to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine, and Defense Intelligence for their new Ukrainian long-range capability. I am equally grateful to our defense-industrial complex and everyone who works for Ukrainian strength. What our own drones are capable of is a true Ukrainian long-range capability. Ukraine will now always have a strike force in the sky.

I want to separately commend our warriors this week who are fighting on the ground on the front lines – every soldier, every commander, especially in those areas where the fighting is most intense. Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Donetsk region, near Kupyansk, in the South. I thank all our brigades, all combat units, who are destroying the occupier, giving us greater stability on the front. Today, I discussed the operational situation in detail with General Syrskyi: our capabilities, and existing threats. It is felt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are becoming stronger.

One more thing. We always have to celebrate every Ukrainian success – all our people who bring pride to Ukraine and Ukrainians. This week, our team returned from the Deaflympics in Türkiye. For the first time in our independence, our national Deaflympics team won the most gold medals in the team medal count. I had the opportunity to thank our athletes, coaches, and everyone who helped the team. I presented state awards. I am proud that our people are capable of overcoming all difficulties and, despite everything, capable of bringing results to Ukraine.

Thank you to everyone who fights for Ukraine, works, and dedicates their lives to ensuring that Ukraine wins. It will win. I am confident.

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

On March 16, 2022, Russian occupiers attacked the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, where hundreds of civilians were hiding from shelling.

They dropped a bomb on the theater and were not stopped by the inscription “Children.”

The exact number of victims is still not known – according to various reports – from 300 to 600 people.

Every Russian murderer must be held accountable for what he has done!

Eternal memory to those who died.

A Taurus update. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

The notion that the Taurus targeting process necessitates large amounts processing power and data is not a new or secret revelation. Broadly speaking, there is a “simple” and an “extended” Taurus mission planning protocol. The two are also referenced in the leaked call. 2/10 
“Simple” mission planning typically involves waypoint navigation using GPS. While this simplifies the planning process, it also renders Taurus more vulnerable to countermeasures and reduces accuracy. 3/10 
“Extended” mission planning is more complex. Here you integrate topographical data for TERCOM, pictures for image-based navigation, data on enemy air defense positions, and more detailed models of your target. 4/10 
The probability of Taurus reaching and eliminating its target rises with the complexity of the mission planning process, as discussed in the leaked call. The greater the intricacy of the targeting process, the higher the level of training required by the Ukrainians. 5/10. 
Keep in mind that this kind of extended mission planning was feasible back in the early 2000s, so it doesn’t require supercomputer-level technology. It’s also entirely achievable to store the necessary data separately from the physical data processing machines. 6/10 
In the leaked call, officers discussed how Storm Shadow mission planning is conducted through “reach back.” This likely refers to accessing some data stored in the UK. This indicates that the UK helps Ukraine perform an extended mission planning process in Ukraine. 7/10 
Does this change anything? Absolutely not. Ukraine is fully capable of developing its own data processing infrastructure and obtaining its targeting own data, which they probably already have. Let’s not forget that Ukraine also has its own cruise missile program. 8/10 
The fact remains, that if there was political willingness to allow Ukraine to use Taurus, the government would find a solution that minimizes and potentially prevents any direct Bundeswehr involvement in Ukraine. The key issue is the lack of political will. 9/10 
This has been a savvy political move by the SPD. They invited high-ranking officers to a “secret” meeting where reporting was not allowed, talking about the scarcity of German equipment. It’s no surprise that this tactic influenced some uninformed members of parliament. 10/10 
Many thanks to @John_A_Ridge for reminding me that the United States developed a mission planning system for Tomahawk in the 1990s that can fit inside a van lol.Image

France:

The President of France Emmanuel Macron gave an interview to Ukrainian media.

Its main points:

On the role of France and his words on troops in Ukraine
🔹The role of France in the war in Ukraine is what Churchill has called “the nerve of war”.

🔹We must bear collective responsibility. We are ready for any challenge and if there comes another wave of escalation from Russia, we will be ready to react for the security of Ukraine and Europeans. But France will never initiate any kind of aggression.

🔹Ukraine must have clear visibility of the military aid calendar and walk confidently up to the moment when negotiations become possible.

On aid to Ukraine
🔹I will go to Berlin, speak to Chancellor Scholz and the Prime Minister of Poland. I am confident we will be able to allocate extra finances.

🔹We don’t have limits, we will react to how Russia reacts. I’m not going with advancing initiatives yet because this is not the spirit of collective solidarity.

On negotiations with Putin
🔹If Putin wants to offer something, I will answer his phone call. But the true negotiations about the end of the war must be held by Putin and Zelenskyy.

 

 

NATO HQ:

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, March 14 (Reuters) – Ukraine is running out of ammunition in its war against Russia’s invasion and NATO members are not doing enough to help Kyiv, the alliance’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday.

In unusually blunt comments about the state of the war, Stoltenberg said NATO allies had the capacity to provide more to Ukraine but needed to show the political will to do so.

“Unprecedented aid from NATO allies has helped Ukraine survive as an independent nation. But Ukraine needs even more support and they need it now,” Stoltenberg told reporters at NATO headquarters in Brussels.

“The Ukrainians are not running out of courage, they are running out of ammunition.”

More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s military has recently been grappling with significantly reduced weapons supplies from the West.

“NATO allies are not providing Ukraine with enough ammunition and that has consequences on the battlefield every day,” Stoltenberg said. “It is one of the reasons why the Russians have been able to make some advance on the battlefield over the last weeks and months.

“It is an urgent need for allies to make the decisions necessary to step and provide more ammunition to Ukraine. That’s my message to all capitals,” Stoltenberg said.

“We have the capacity, the economies, to be able to provide Ukraine what they need. This is a question of political will. To take the decisions and to prioritize support for Ukraine.”

He added that any attempt to organise Russian elections in occupied regions of Ukraine would be illegal.

The Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka fronts:

En route to Britain:

 

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

This one just happened!

It’s such a recent attack there is no more thread yet. Just the first tweet.

Syrzan, Samara Oblast, Russia:

Russian media as well as the governor of the Samara region say that this morning Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked by drones. As claimed, a fire also started there as a result of the attack and was extinguished in half an hour. But unfortunately no videos have yet appeared in the media to verify what was hit.
The Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery is located 100km away from Syzran oil refinery. And 900km from the frontline. (53.0664572, 49.8708594)

If you were wondering how things are going with the Ukrainian aligned Russian legions that have raided across the Ukrainian border in to Russia, here you go:

Kozinka Village:

Graivoron border point:

Belgorod:

Moscow:

Ukrainska Pravda has the details:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that Russia is supposedly ready for a peaceful solution to the war it has unleashed against Ukraine, but only on condition that the territories it has captured will be taken into account and Moscow is provided with guarantees.

Source: Putin in an interview with Kremlin-aligned Russian news agencies Russia 1, RIA Novosti, and RT; BBC News Russian

Quote from Putin: “Are we ready for negotiations? Yes, we are, but we are only willing to negotiate based on the realities that have emerged, as they say in such cases, on the ground, rather than on some kind of fantasies created by psychotropic drugs.”

Details: Putin added that “possible negotiations are not a pause for rearming Kyiv, but a serious conversation with security guarantees for Moscow.”

Putin claimed he already knew the “carrots [i.e. incentives] they are going to offer him” to prove that the right time had come for talks.

Quote from Putin: “They’re snorting cocaine now, right? Well, it doesn’t matter, it’s even easier with such people. It’s tougher with the smart ones, they are more dangerous as they influence the consciousness of society, including ours. They will toss out all sorts of their desires under the guise of carrots for us.”

Why this is important: Russia invaded Ukraine and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea and part of Donbas in 2014. The Russian Federation commenced a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, launching missiles and bombs on civilian settlements across the country overnight. Notably, in the early days of the full-scale war, Russian propagandists extensively disseminated claims that “Russia will take Kyiv in three days”, while Russian soldiers marching on Kyiv carried their ceremonial uniforms to parade down Kyiv’s central Khreshchatyk Street.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s Armed Forces expelled Russian troops from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and continue to hold back the Russians on other fronts.

Realising that it would be impossible to achieve victory with force, Russia started to promote the idea of alleged peace talks through which it would seek to retain all the occupied territories. At the same time, the Russians are continuing to terrorise Ukraine, striking energy and civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. They often do so during the night.

Russian forces are suffering heavy losses regardless of their vast number of weapons and hardware. Russia has failed to achieve even the most minor strategic victory, such as reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts as of early March 2024, after over ten years of war and more than two years of full-scale invasion. Fighting for every street and house is ongoing in the cities and villages of Ukraine’s east. Russia has been trying to find weapons and mercenaries in other countries.

Ukraine views the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory, the restoration of Ukraine’s 1991 borders, the release of all prisoners of war, war criminals being brought to justice and Russia paying reparations as the preconditions for negotiations. Ukraine’s Peace Formula outlines all of this.

Background:

  • Earlier, Pope Francis advised Ukraine to “have the courage of the white flag” and negotiate with Russia.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded that “Russian murderers and torturers are not moving further into Europe solely because they are being held back by Ukrainians with weapons in their hands under the blue and yellow flag”.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Open thread!

Reader Interactions

39Comments

  1. 1.

    japa21

    Thanks Adam.  Get some rest.

    I actually agree with Putin on one thing.  The occupied territories must be included in any negotiations, as in it is negotiated that Russia leave all of them, including Crimea, негайно.

  2. 2.

    Gin & Tonic

    Every Ukrainian Catholic priest in the areas of Ukraine occupied by russia has been killed or imprisoned. Every one. And Francis talks about the “courage” of surrendering?

    The death of the Ukrainian Catholic Church will be exclusively Francis’ fault.

  4. 4.

    SteveinPHX

    I hope every day that some way will be found to dynamite this logjam that is blocking aid for Ukraine. It. just boggles my mind how pro-Russian a large part of our government has become.

    BTW, I was kind of away from BJ for a while. Getting back more recently and just realized I haven’t seen any posts from Allison Rose the last few days. Hope all is well.

    All the best.

  5. 5.

    Tony G

    @Gin & Tonic: Speaking as an ex-Catholic: screw the Catholic Church.  There are probably some good low-level priests, but, as with any bureaucracy, the people get worse the higher up you go on the org chart.  Just a totally corrupt organization.

  8. 8.

    frosty

    @SteveinPHX: FYI Allison is a One-L Alison*. She posted on Adam’s thread last night, but otherwise has been quiet. I miss her comments.
    * So was my late S-I-L.

  9. 9.

    Jay

    As always, thank you Adam.

    Shitter has started locking pro-Ukrainian posters out of their accounts.

  11. 11.

    Andrya

    @Gin & Tonic:  Speaking as BJ’s token Catholic- this is something that needs to be strongly communicated before election day.  Allegedly the Republican base cares passionately about freedom of religion? Ukraine has freedom of religion, and russia does not.

    The former Chief Rabbi of Moscow, Pinchas Goldschmidt, left russia for Israel because the russian government demanded to dictate his sermons, reducing them to propaganda.  (link)

    The Jehovah’s Witness faith has been designated as “extremist” and Jehovah’s Witnesses are now serving time in the abusive russian prison system.  Other Protestants, including Baptists and Pentecostals, have been harassed by the police.  Catholics have not, as far as I know, been harassed, but that’s because there are hardly any Catholics in russia- but there are a lot of (Eastern Rite) Catholics in Ukraine.

    And no one, of any faith, has “freedom of religion” if the local FSB office controls the clergy’s sermon.

  15. 15.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Gin & Tonic:

    I don’t know how or why Macron grew a spine, but I am impressed.

    “Relieved” is probably more appropriate than “impressed,” in my opinion. Macron is a bit of a flake, and he seems to respond to his short-term political environment more than he does to long-term strategic calculation. Let us not forget the “brain-death of NATO” episode, and his endless, pointless phone sessions with Putin in 2022, which were certainly not about communicating resolute resistance to Russian strategic aims.

    If I had to guess, his current thinking is that he enhances France’s status within Europe by exhibiting a stark juxtaposition to Scholz’s tergiversation. Which is great, for now, until another butterfly catches his attention.

  17. 17.

    teezyskeezy

    @Adam L Silverman:

    But the question is,does it legitimize him or her more? (in my mind, him, but we will see how well France handles this shit).

    I think if the evil forces of the world really have found the secret sauce formula for subversive propaganda that always wins, it ultimately is not going to lead to a world of well organized control the way they fantasize.  It will be endless roiling chaos that makes no one happy. Let’s think about the “stable” autocracies in the world…let’s think about how they kind of rely upon the rest of the world not going crazy in order to survive.  Parasitic strategies work, until they destroy their only available host.

    Their ultimate success will be the destruction of civilization, without a nuke being fired.

  18. 18.

    teezyskeezy

    @Andrya:

    Conservatives don’t care about freedom of religion.  And they know it. This isn’t something you can cajole them on.  They KNOW they are full of shit and are just trying to shove their particular flavor of Christianity down our throats using whatever means and excuses available. They aren’t in denial about this. They know what they are doing.

    There’s no way to reach them on principle.  They very consciously have rejected such arguments long ago.

  19. 19.

    Carlo Graziani

    Adam, made me look: I presume that the Musk news is this Reuters report on SpaceX building a swarm of surveillance satellites for the NRO.

    I look forward to tomorrow’s discussion thereof.

  20. 20.

    Andrya

    @Gin & Tonic:   One doesn’t have to agree with another person (or church, or anti-church) to care passionately about their right to teach and practice what they believe.  I think the Jehovah’s Witnesses are way off base on blood transfusion, but it enrages me that putin has them imprisoned.  Everyone- everyone- Atheist, Jewish, Baha’i, Muslim, Protestant, Catholic, Sikh, traditional Native American, Pagan, whatever- should be free to teach and advocate, and everyone is the better for it.

  22. 22.

    Carlo Graziani

    @Andrya: There is a reason, however, that we—the heirs of, beneficiaries of, and main proselytizers for the values of the Enlightenment—feel validated in our revulsion for theocracy, in our rejection of religious authority over secular affairs, and in our dislike for ex cathedra interference in political matters by religious officials.

    The world was a much worse place when religious writ ruled the West, and we should never forget that fact.  It is no bad thing for even well-meaning religious personages such as Francis to be told to butt out of matters beyond their competence or jurisdiction, when the occasion arises.

  23. 23.

    Alison Rose

    Thank you as always, Adam.

    @SteveinPHX: @frosty: Thank you for the comments and spelling lesson :) I’m no longer active on this site except to comment on these posts to thank Adam for his work. Reasons exist but I won’t spell them out here.

  24. 24.

    Andrya

    @Carlo Graziani:   The world didn’t work so well when anti-religious figures ruled the roost- Robespierre?  Stalin?  Mao?  Pol Pot?  The key is freedom of expression and belief, and the competing marketplace of ideas, not whether the ruling entity is theistic or anti-theistic.  Pope Francis (whom, actually, I don’t think is terribly bright) is entitled to give his view like everyone else, and, like everyone else, should expect pushback when he’s wrong.

  25. 25.

    Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom

    That drone footage from Special Kherson Cat was hilarious! Thank you for the unexpected laugh, Adam. Dream well.

  26. 26.

    Roberto el oso

    @Carlo Graziani: You could very well be right, but I think there might just be a higher percentage of genuine principle in Macron’s thinking than political calculation. Although there is certainly that, not only in the clear intent of reclaiming the role of European leadership from the Germans but in boxing in Le Pen, whose followers are not uniformly pro-Putin, even if she is.

  27. 27.

    wjca

    @teezyskeezy: if the evil forces of the world really have found the secret sauce formula for subversive propaganda that always wins, it ultimately is not going to lead to a world of well organized control the way they fantasize.

    For openers, that same (or, at least, a closely related) secret sauce formula can be deployed against them.

    They fantasize that they can control information flows, and so avoid that.  That trick has been tried before. It hasn’t ever worked, but “This time for sure!”  Not the smart money bet.

  29. 29.

    Roberto el oso

    @Jay: thank you!  Just read the link. Le Pen clearly condemns the Russian invasion and at the same time pushes back against Macron, but not, it seems to me, very effectively. Her preferred policy sounds pretty meaningless: ” the best strategic ambiguity is silence”.

  31. 31.

    Andrya

    @teezyskeezy:   I think that’s true for most conservatives, but the 2020 election was agonizingly close.  If we can just peel away a few of them… that might make a difference…

  32. 32.

    Roberto el oso

    @Andrya: I actually think Francis is fairly bright, all in all, and is a definite improvement over his immediate predecessors, theologically speaking. This only deepens the disappointment in his comments, which managed to be both naive and condescending.

    I agree with your overall sentiments, btw.

  33. 33.

    Chetan Murthy

    @wjca: I would wish you were right on this but I’ve read enough ostensibly authoritative sources who argue otherwise.  That free and open societies are vulnerable to disinformation in a way that closed, authoritarian societies are not.  That, indeed, the only thing we can do is to provide truthful sources of information to (e.g.) Russians, and hope for the best.  It’s a hard nut to crack, apparently.

    I fear the best thing we have going for us, is that oligarchies and personalist regimes eventually tend to incompetence and failure.  But that can take a while, and they can meanwhile import technology from the West to prop their war machine up.

  34. 34.

    bjacques

    @Chetan Murthy: despite the injury disinformation can cause, an open society is still healthier than a closed one, because what passes for information there becomes the silt that keeps it from functioning much beyond the minimum capacity required to keep the leaders in power and the people minimally clothed, sheltered, fed and occasionally entertained—a recipe for obedience but also apathy. It’s why democracies outperform autocracies and can respond better to crises and are less likely to collapse suddenly.

    Since Ukraine are clearly choosing strategic industrial targets like refineries and arms and electronics factories, it would make sense to deploy at least Browning .30 gunners near the ones within range of Ukrainian drones (and some that aren’t, just in case, if no beefier air defenses are available. But that would be showing initiative, which in autocracies is unrewarded and indeed suspect.

    You can see it with GOP campaigns that get less bang for the buck than Democratic ones. It’s not only the thievery by expensive consultants, but lack of good information flowing up as needed.

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