War for Ukraine Day 779: The Side that Can’t Shoot Back Loses

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Before we start, I want to make something clear, again: the discharge petition is not going to pass and move the Senate’s supplemental aid bill to the floor of the House for a vote. Even if the remaining dozen or so Democratic holdouts agree to sign on, it would still need four Republicans. The reality, however, is it would need at least six Republicans because Congresswomen Tlaib and Omar will not vote for it because it includes additional military aid for Israel in it’s war with Hamas. I don’t think Congresswoman Bush would vote for it either for the same reason, so more likely seven Republican representatives. That is not going to happen. There is no one weird trick to get this passed. The failure to front load this before the 2022 midterms created the opportunity for Republican obstruction. And before someone in the comments explains to me how defense enterprise management works, it is possible to fund things in the defense appropriations bills for longer than a year.

As I start writing tonight’s update – 8:25 PM EDT – the skies over Ukraine are clear. The only air raid alerts are over Russian occupied Luhansk and Crimea.

That was not the case earlier today:

There is an air raid alert in Kyiv and across Ukraine due to the liftoff of two Russian MiG-31. Each is capable of launching a hypersonic missile. pic.twitter.com/7el44GRpue

— Kyrylo Loukerenko (@K_Loukerenko) April 12, 2024

There is not a single quiet day in Kharkiv Oblast without russian shelling.

Today, russian troops killed a 64-year-old man and wounded two other civilians in the Kupiansk district. #ArmUkraineNow before it's too late! pic.twitter.com/1IADTkJLoa

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) April 12, 2024

When GEN Cavoli, the Commander of EUCOM and Supreme Allied Commander Europe testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) yesterday he repeated a statement he’d made to the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) the day before:

“If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and will run out of air defense interceptors in fairly short order,” said General Christopher Cavoli, explaining that Kyiv is dependent on the United States for those key munitions.

“I can’t predict the future, but I can do simple math,” he said. “Based on my experience in 37-plus years in the U.S. military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses.”

Cavoli also said the failure of U.S. lawmakers to approve a $60 billion supplemental security package is already giving Russia a significant advantage.

“They [Ukraine] are now being outshot by the Russian side 5-to-1,” he told lawmakers. “That will immediately go to 10-to-1 in a matter of weeks.

“We are not talking about months. We are not talking hypothetically,” Cavoli said.

I just received this message from a friend in Ukraine… “Here in Ukraine it seems like the US abandoned us. The US is proclaiming they are for democratic principles but in reality they do not support now the only country that is really fighting for those principles. Hard to see.”

— Eleanor Beardsley (@ElBeardsley) April 12, 2024

President Zelenskyy travelled to Chernivsti today. He spoke and participated in the meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities and the Made in Ukraine platform.

Here is the video of his remarks at the former:

And the latter:

The Netherlands:

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte@MinPres announced that the Netherlands will provide an additional €1 billion of military support for Ukraine this year. That is on top of the €2 billion that had already been agreed.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for… pic.twitter.com/axAI2V8dJg

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 12, 2024

The Prime Minister of the Netherlands Mark Rutte @MinPres
announced that the Netherlands will provide an additional €1 billion of military support for Ukraine this year. That is on top of the €2 billion that had already been agreed.

We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. We appreciate your leadership in supporting freedom.
Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

France:

"World War III is already underway. But European leaders, as in the days of Hitler, deny reality"

The main theses the interview with French writer and friend of Ukraine Bernard Henri-Levy for European Pravda.

🔹 The possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine

When… pic.twitter.com/QPxwQjwZuA

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024

“World War III is already underway. But European leaders, as in the days of Hitler, deny reality”

The main theses the interview with French writer and friend of Ukraine Bernard Henri-Levy for European Pravda.

🔹 The possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine

When President Macron proposed this option, he was not sure that the French public would support it.

France is the country of the Munich Agreement. In 1938, France and Britain were the godparents of the Munich Agreement with Hitler.

And despite all the tragic events that entailed this agreement, the spirit of Munich has not died in France. Many people still believe that when you face a dictator – such as Putin – you should at least partially meet his demands. They say that if you feed the beast a little, it will become peaceful.

President Macron is one of those who realized that Putin should get nothing. Because if you give the beast a finger, he will want to bite off your hand.

🔹 Will Russia attack NATO countries?

History proves that it is always with dictatorships: Russia is strong when we are weak. And if we are firm and show resilience – dictators are not confident.

There is less chance of Putin’s escalation. Although, of course, he doesn’t want to stop at Ukraine. There are no red lines for him.

🔹 World War III has already begun

“What is happening now is what World War III is all about. We are in the middle of it, with Russia, with Iran, with China, with North Korea, with Israel and Hamas acting with Putin’s support.”

🔹 Key to Ukraine’s victory

The European press often writes about “war fatigue,” but there is far less fatigue in the AFU trenches near Chasiv Yar today than there is in France or Germany.

If the West had given Ukraine the necessary support, this war could have been over rather quickly.

Link to the full interview with
@BHL
in English: https://youtu.be/qqbVooNmzr0?si=Ek5rJ2qM2cfSZNwu

The US, on the other hand, is going to be busy working on this next week:

On the House floor next week: pic.twitter.com/FT4nGEnM3b

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) April 11, 2024

I went to the House of Representative’s website, this is accurate, not a spoof. The Liberty in Laundry Act prevents the imposition of new energy standards on washing machines.

With U.S. aid still stalled and its army at a breaking point, Ukraine warns: We will lose https://t.co/PcptDIUMi3

— Dan De Luce (@dandeluce) April 12, 2024

NBC News has the details:

KYIV, Ukraine — Forced back, Ukraine is now digging in to stop a collapse across the war’s front lines as Russian attacks and American delays leave Kyiv and its allies to confront the possibility of a painful defeat.

A $61 billion aid package has been stuck in Congress for months, leaving Ukraine exposed on the front lines — running out of ammunition and men — while its energy system now faces an onslaught that is exposing its depleted air defenses.

The shortages forced Kyiv’s military to withdraw from a key eastern city in February, and with no progress in Washington, Ukrainian soldiers are now desperately trying to hold on to their positions along some 600 miles of the front line.

“Nothing has changed: We did not have any shells then, we don’t have any shells now,” said artillery sergeant Andriy, who was part of Kyiv’s retreat from Avdiivka in February after months of intense fighting. “The Russians continue to push in packs, without stopping,” Andriy, who did not want his last name revealed as he was not authorized to speak publicly, told NBC News last week.

Ukrainian leaders, backed up by Western officials, are pushing Republicans to break the logjam before it is too late, fearing the Kremlin could seek to take advantage by launching a new offensive over the summer or sooner.

“They understand that we are in a very weak position right now,” said Oleksandra Ustinova, a member of Ukraine’s parliament who chairs the country’s wartime oversight commission on monitoring aid. “Americans understand that as well. They understand that we literally have nothing to shoot with,” she said in a phone interview this week.On Wednesday, that message was echoed by the top U.S. general in Europe.

A crisis on the battlefield has increasingly become one in the air too.

Russia has turned its attention back to Ukraine’s energy grid, striking key facilities in missile and drone attacks that have exploited a shortage of air defense systems across the country.

But a particular focus has been Kharkiv, forcing rolling blackouts and raising the prospect that Ukraine’s second-largest city could soon become the Kremlin’s primary target.

The city, which had a prewar population of 1.5 million people, lies just 26 miles from the Russian border, and President Vladimir Putin last month hinted at his desire to carve out a “sanitary zone” around the broader Kharkiv region to stop Ukrainian attacks from reaching Russia’s own border regions.

The Ukrainians are looking for additional forms of air defense “of all kinds as soon as humanly possible,” a senior U.S. State Department official said. Kyiv has made it “very clear that the Russians are clearly taking a much more aggressive posture towards Kharkiv right now,” the official said.

Norwegian Chief of Defense Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview this week that air defense was key not just to protecting Kharkiv from missile attacks, but to preventing a ground assault on the crucial city. “I don’t see right now that with the current situation that the Russians can do it, but I’m concerned if Ukraine runs out of air defense systems that would change the dynamics,” he said.

Much more at the link.

Meanwhile in Russia: state TV experts discussed Mike Johnson's meeting with Trump as the deciding factor in whether Ukraine will receive stalled US funding. Referring to Mike Johnson, state TV host Olga Skabeeva claimed him as "theirs," just like Trump.https://t.co/OBRdy6Aga4

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 12, 2024

Andrea Chalupa has more on Speaker Johnson. First tweet from the thread and the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Digging into Speaker Johnson–a staunch evangelical, and the other MAGA Christian nationalists blocking aid to Ukraine in the House, I discovered that Ukraine plays a role in their demented "end times" world view 🧵

— Andrea Chalupa (@AndreaChalupa) April 11, 2024

Mike Johnson is a staunch evangelical. He was featured in a German documentary on taking his daughter to a purity ball where she signed a pledge to never have sex before marriage. Purity balls are seen as dehumanizing to young girls and women

Speaker Mike Johnson and daughter were profiled attending ‘purity ball’ in 2015 German TV news segmentYears before becoming speaker, Mike Johnson and his family were profiled attending a “purity ball” in a German TV news segment, underscoring his deep conservative views.https://abcnews.go.com/US/speaker-mike-johnson-daughter-profiled-attending-purity-ball/story?id=105785626

Mike Johnson explained that his worldview is the bible. Evangelicals take the bible as fact, including creationism (the Earth was created by God in 6 days) and the end times prophecies

It’s well known that evangelicals like Mike Johnson support Israel, because they believe, according to the bible, that Israel will be destroyed in the final battle of good vs evil. Unfortunately, many believe that battle includes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as part of God’s plan 

Here’s a video of Pat Robertson, one of the most consequential evangelical leaders to build white Christian nationalists into a political force, taking over the GOP. He claims the path to Israel’s destruction begins with Russia’s destruction of Ukraine 

The problem with end times “prophesy” is that it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy. This is a great piece on how evangelicals contributed to the conflict in the Middle East, which they see as validation of “prophesy”

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4548756-evangelicals-caused-todays-mess-in-the-middle-east/

Christian nationalists are all about money and power. They align with strongmen to come to power and enrich themselves. Putin and Orban consolidated power with Christian nationalism. Mike Johnson is in this for the money and power, as I discuss here:

Many evangelicals see Russia’s destruction of Ukraine as necessary so Russia can fulfil prophesy by joining the forces of evil to destroy Israel. Pat Robertson provided this handy map to “prove” it’s true. Does Mike Johnson believe this? He said the bible is his worldview.

In last week’s @gaslitnation, I discussed with @MoniqueCamarra and @OlgaNYC1211 whether Mike Johnson will ever unblock Ukraine aid. I argued he will not, out of motivations of money and power. He hides behind Marjorie Taylor Greene to deflect blame 

Christian nationalists believe they’re living prophesy, as @terrelljstarr and I discuss in this week’s @gaslitnation. Mike Johnson is part of their “end times” cult. Biden cannot shame or reason with these people. He must work around them to save Ukraine 

Ukraine is a victim of end times prophesy. They want it to fall to usher in the end times and Jesus returns. Contact your rep through this site by a @gaslitnation listener and demand they get the discharge petitions signed to force a vote on Ukraine aid

Urge your Congressional Representatives to support UkraineLook up your US Congress representatives, use our auto-generated draft letters as the starting point for your request to support Ukraine. Make your voice count, save time. Help Ukraine win.https://helpukrainewin.com/

The EU and some of its member states:

Kyiv is specifically lobbying for Patriot systems currently idle in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”https://t.co/rIk4eqSGMp

— Henry Foy (@HenryJFoy) April 12, 2024

From The Financial Times:

European capitals have rebuffed demands from Kyiv to send their air defence systems to Ukraine, after a week of relentless missile and drone bombardments from Russia that have destroyed critical energy plants in the war-torn country.

Ukraine has long warned that it needed urgent air defence supplies to protect itself against an overwhelming number of Russian rockets targeting the country’s power and heating infrastructure.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped up pleas this week for US-made Patriot batteries, castigating Kyiv’s western partners for “turning a blind eye” as the capital region saw the destruction of its largest power plant.

Speaking at the Three Seas summit in the Lithuanian capital Vilnius on Thursday, he said Ukraine had fallen into a “routine” in which it suffers Russian air attacks and then pleads for more air defences from western partners who promise to provide them but have failed to deliver.

“Missiles are striking every day, and every day we hear that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems. Every day Russian terrorists cut off the electricity to Kharkiv and our other cities, and every day we hear that new aid is coming soon,” Zelenskyy said. “The reality must finally match the words.”

Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat, said this week it was “inconceivable” that western countries could not provide seven extra Patriot batteries to Ukraine, given that they had about 100 in their arsenal they could spare.

Kyiv is lobbying for air defence systems in Poland, Romania and Spain to be sent to Ukraine, two people familiar with the talks told the Financial Times.

Kyiv foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba confirmed on a Ukrainian national news telethon late on Friday that “active negotiations” were under way with allies about acquiring two Patriot and one SAMP/T air defence systems.

While Kuleba did not name those allies, officials with knowledge of the discussions told the FT that Ukraine is in talks with Poland and Spain for a Patriot battery from each and with Romania on the French-Italian SAMP/T.

“If the countries where they are located were now ready to hand them over to us, it would be a matter of a week and we would get them,” Kuleba said.

Ukraine currently has at least three Patriot batteries and one SAMP/T battery which it received in 2023.

“They only need seven,” one person said. “But it’s complicated.”

European capitals have said they do not have plans to send more systems to Ukraine, arguing that they need to retain their own defence capabilities.

Germany has given two Patriot systems to Ukraine but made clear this week it would not provide any more.

“We will not be able to offer any more systems for the time being,” the defence ministry said on Monday.

Ukraine’s demands have put a spotlight on strategic minimum levels of defence capabilities, and whether European Nato states would decide to drop below what they have determined is the least amount required to defend their states in order to send equipment to Ukraine.

“I would say that any decision on going below strategic stock levels lies heavily in the hands of our defence forces and our military and should always remain confidential,” Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said this week when asked if he thought other countries should send more weapons to Ukraine.

Poland’s military has insisted it cannot spare Patriots for Ukraine at a time when it is itself waiting for US deliveries after Washington last June approved an order from Warsaw worth $15bn for Patriots and related equipment.

While also in Vilnius on Thursday, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda ruled out supplying Patriot systems. Instead, he said there was still a possibility Warsaw could transfer more of its Soviet-built missiles to Kyiv, without specifying which models and how many.

“In Poland, we’re just starting to build the Patriot anti-missile defence system. This system in Poland is not ready yet, so we have nothing to donate, even if we wanted to,” Duda said.

More at the link.

For want of a nail…

Brussels:

Belgium probing alleged Russian interference in EU election campaign https://t.co/chLYs3KkjT

— Iuliia Mendel (@IuliiaMendel) April 12, 2024

From Reuters:

BRUSSELS, April 12 (Reuters) – Belgian prosecutors are looking into possible Russian interference in the upcoming European Parliament election following findings provided by intelligence services, Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said on Friday.

He said investigators found that Russian groups are meddling in the European election to push forward pro-Russia candidates and thus weaken European support for Ukraine against Russia’s two-year-old invasion.

“The objective is to help elect more pro-Russian candidates to the European Parliament and reinforce a certain pro-Russian narrative in that institution,” De Croo told reporters.

“Weakened European support for Ukraine serves Russia on the battlefield,” he said.

De Croo said the Belgian investigation was launched after Czech authorities found pro-Russian agents active in Brussels seeking to influence, and even pay, European lawmakers to promote a pro-Russian agenda.

It appeared that cash payments were not made in Belgium though interference had occurred there, he said.

More at the link.

Timofiy Mylovanov, the president of the Kyiv School of Economics, posted a long thread on what he is observing on the ground in Ukraine. Here it is from the Thread Reader App:

The war in Ukraine starts to escalate.

Evidence:

1. On April 11 Russia destroyed the largest power plant in Kyiv 1/ 

Russia used the latest X-69 to strike at Trypillia TPP, which more advanced than “Kinzhal”

X-69 is a subsonic cruise missile with the range of about 400 km 2/

2. On April 11, Russia attacked two Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities

Bloomberg reports that this attack propelled Europe’s prices: European gas futures rose as much as 9.5% 3/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/russia-attacks-ukraine-gas-storage-sites-driving-prices-higher

3. In addition, Russia damaged a large number of power facilities across the country.

Bloomberg: Moscow used more than 80 missiles and drones, U.S. envoy says situation is ‘dire’ 4/

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-missile-strike-targets-cities-across-ukraine-2024-04-11/

3. These attacks with dozens or hundreds of missiles and drones have been steadily increasing

The UN Assistant General Secretary: We are appalled by the increase in civilian casualties as a result of these relentless attacks.  5/

4. According to the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 126 civilians were killed and 478 injured in March.

This is a 20 per cent increase compared with the previous month.6/

dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600…

https://dppa.un.org/en/mtg-sc-9600-asg-jenca-ukraine-11-apr-2024

5. In March, Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also recorded a total of 12 medical facilities and 32 educational facilities destroyed or damaged. 7/ 

6. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was attacked for the first time since November 2022. Russia accuses Ukraine, Ukraine accuses Russia of the attacks 8/ bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Ukraine nuclear plant drone strike prompts warning – BBC NewsThe International Atomic Energy Agency warns Russia and Ukraine not to attack nuclear facilities.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68757082.amp

Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top U.S. military commander in Europe, warned that Ukraine could lose the war with Russia if the U.S. does not send more ammunition to Ukrainian forces quickly. 9/

nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/…

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/10/us/politics/us-aid-ukraine-war.html?searchResultPosition=17

7. Frontline Ukrainian forces are rationing artillery shells due to lack of a reliable Western supplier, allowing Russian troops to outfire them 5-to-1, a ratio that could soon increase to 10-to-1 without additional U.S. aid. 10/ 

8. Russia has reconstituted its army faster than initial U.S. estimates, increasing frontline troop strength by 15% to 470,000 and expanding the conscription age limit. Russia plans to expand its military to 1.5 million troops. 11/

politico.com/news/2024/04/1…

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/11/christopher-cavoli-russian-military-losses-00151718

9. Russian missile attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, bombardment of Kharkiv, and advances along the front are stoking fears that Ukraine’s military is nearing a breaking point. 12/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-11/strikes-on-power-plant-kharkiv-stoke-fears-of-russian-breakthrough?srnd=homepage-europe

Western officials say Ukraine is at its most fragile moment in over two years of war.

Ukrainian officials don’t comment on the “breaking point” but increasingly voice alarming pleas for weapons and air defense 13/ 

There is a risk of Ukrainian defense collapse which could enable Russia to make a major advance for the first time since the early stages of the war. The next few months will be Ukraine’s toughest test. 14/ 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged his country’s allies to make good on their promises of military aid on Thursday, particularly in the form of desperately needed air defence systems as Russia scales up its air strikes 15/

reuters.com/world/europe/u…

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy-arrives-lithuania-summit-war-focus-2024-04-11/

So, in short, Ukraine is running out of air defense and weapons, and Russia is taking advantage of it.

Russia can break through unless the West overcomes its political infighting and dysfunctionality to provide support to Ukraine

16/ 

Democracies are messy, I often hear, but it is the best system. True, but this mess currently makes democracies unable to effectively address Russian threat. It looks more and more like a lack of leadership rather than the usual weakness of democracies. 17X 

🇺🇦Ukraine's 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade demonstrates its Sukhoi Su-27S jets delivering strikes with 🇫🇷French-provided AASM-250 Hammer precision-guided bombs.

If only we could have them (as well as many other weapons) at least a year ago… pic.twitter.com/ShNvTDFFse

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 12, 2024

The Zaporizhzhia front:

HIMARS strike on Russian TOR-M2 air defence system. Zaporizhzhia front.
47.40405, 35.30575https://t.co/9GSi8d9ZSm pic.twitter.com/OW70lBi4SB

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

Destroyed Russian 9A317 of the Buk-M2 air defence system. As said, the strike was carried out by a drone. Somewhere near Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia front. Destroyed presumably between 5th and 10th of April 2024. https://t.co/ZXOz2fcM3l pic.twitter.com/LWfphRWn5X

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

Moscow:

Looks like the HUR got a traitor!

A Toyota Land Cruiser Prado, owned by former SBU officer of Ukraine Vasily Prozorov, was blown up in Moscow.
He moved to Russia several years ago, and before that, since 2014 he had been collaborating with Russian intelligence services.
Reportedly he was hospitalised. pic.twitter.com/heecrSeTUM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 12, 2024

The car of an ex-employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was "leaking" information to Russian security services was blown up in Moscow.

According to the Russian media, the owner of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado blown up in Moscow today was a former employee of the… pic.twitter.com/Nx8nCEU627

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024

The car of an ex-employee of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who was “leaking” information to Russian security services was blown up in Moscow.

According to the Russian media, the owner of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado blown up in Moscow today was a former employee of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Prozorov.

He moved to Russia several years ago, and before that, according to his own words, since 2014, he had been cooperating with the Russian security services, passing them information. As Vasyl himself has repeatedly stated in interviews, the decision to cooperate with the special services of the Russian Federation he “made voluntarily for ideological reasons.” Prozorov is listed in the Myrotvorets (‘Peacemaker’) database.

This afternoon, his SUV was blown up in a parking lot on Korovinskoye highway as Prozorov was getting into the car. He survived and was hospitalized with leg injuries.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron texts or tweets today, so here’s some adjacent material.

A video to restore some faith in humanity:

Rescuers in Sumy saved five tiny puppies while fighting with fire in a building. Look at their mom all worried.

Thankfully, the pups are fine. They were given back to their mom.

📹: SESU pic.twitter.com/mjMNR0YB4P

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 12, 2024