Archives for 2024

Pathetic

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 27, 2024 at 1:12 PM

From The Wall Street Journal:

The Biden administration doesn’t have enough time left to use the billions of dollars lawmakers have authorized to arm Ukraine, U.S. and congressional officials said, leaving in President-Elect Donald Trump’s hands what to do with the remaining money.

The administration still has more than $6.5 billion left in what is known as drawdown authority, which allows the Defense Department to transfer weapons and equipment to Ukraine from its own stocks, U.S. officials said. The Pentagon has reached the limit of the weapons it can send Ukraine each month without affecting its own fighting capability, however, and is facing logistical challenges in getting the arms to Kyiv’s forces, they said.

The U.S. would have to ship more than $110 million worth of weapons a day, or just shy of $3 billion in December and January, to spend the remaining funds in time. “I would say it’s impossible,” one congressional official said.

What Trump decides to do with the remaining money will have implications for the battlefield and could help determine how much leverage Kyiv has going into any potential peace negotiations with Russia. Trump has said he would end the war, and U.S. officials worry that his incoming administration could choose to withhold weapons to get Kyiv to the negotiating table.

The remaining funds “offer the next administration considerable leverage to stop or suspend shipments to Ukraine,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S. think tank. “The Trump administration’s first order of business will be to decide what to do with remaining equipment and how best to pursue the next supplemental request to Congress.”

A spokesperson for the Trump transition team didn’t respond to a request for comment.

On Wednesday, Trump said on Truth Social that he planned to nominate retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served in his first administration as a top national-security adviser, to the role of special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg has advocated seeking a negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict but continuing to arm Kyiv to ensure Russia makes no further advances and wouldn’t attack again.

The Pentagon is now aiming to transfer $500 million to $750 million worth of weapons per month from its stocks to Ukraine, said one senior defense official, an increase from the average amount in previous months. But any more than that would require the Pentagon to draw down U.S. inventories to levels that would affect the U.S. military’s own readiness, which defense leaders are unwilling to do.

“We are scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of easy stuff to send off the shelf,” the senior defense official said.

The upcoming shipments are expected to be largely ammunition and artillery, in part, because they are easier to ship, U.S. defense officials said. Heavier equipment such as armored vehicles or tanks can take months to inspect, test and clean before it can be delivered.

The White House, which until two weeks ago said it was confident it could send the full amount to Ukraine before the end of the administration, is now backing off that claim, but it is arguing that people, not arms, are the major challenge for Ukraine.

The Ukrainians “now have healthy stockpiles of the vital tools, ammunition and weapons that they need to succeed on the battlefield,” a senior White House official told reporters Wednesday. “Today, the most pressing challenge for Ukraine is manpower.”

More at the link if you can stomach it.

Also, for accuracy, it is LTG (ret) Kellogg. He’s a retired 3 star, not a retired 4 star.

⚡️Some commitments from NATO summit in July remain unfulfilled, Zelensky says.
Key commitments from NATO’s July summit in Washington, including some air defense systems and other military support, have not been fulfilled, President Volodymyr Zelensky told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Nov. 27.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 27, 2024 at 4:47 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Key commitments from NATO’s July summit in Washington, including air defense systems and other military support, have not yet been fully implemented, President Volodymyr Zelensky told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Nov. 27.

“This significantly affects the motivation and morale of our people,” he said, emphasizing the need for timely delivery of promised support.

Zelensky also raised concerns about Russia’s use of new ballistic missiles, urging NATO partners to provide specific air defense systems that are readily available.

“The recent authorization of long-range strikes against military targets in Russia has helped. But the pressure on Russia must be maintained and increased at various levels,” Zelensky added.

The two leaders also discussed strengthening Ukraine’s ties with the United States and other allies, ensuring the execution of existing agreements, and advancing efforts for Ukraine’s eventual invitation to NATO.

While Ukraine didn’t get a firm commitment to join NATO at the alliance’s summit this year, the 32 allied countries did declare Ukraine’s path to membership “irreversible”.

Along with air defense systems, Ukraine was promised $43 billion in funding, a NATO representative in Kyiv, and new bilateral security agreements.

Sorry, but lowering the draft age to 18 for the sake of getting more manpower while partners still spend months and years weighing the risks of escalation with every single weapon and equipment type that Ukraine begs for does not seem to look like a good long-term strategy.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 27, 2024 at 12:45 PM

It is not a good long term strategy.

I have deleted what I originally wrote here in response to all of the above. When one’s words are no better than silence, one should be silent.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 1,008: For Want of a NailPost + Comments (33)