A quick housekeeping note: My house has been cleaned. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!!!
The last several nights there has been robust discussions regarding what Putin/Russia is trying to accomplish with the incursions into Polish, Romanian, and Estonian air space. One thing that hasn’t been mentioned is that what Putin and Russia are doing with these incursions is forcing not just the Poles, the Romanians, and the Estonians to expend resources in response, but the other NATO allies in Europe as well. The Baltic states are not wealthy. It has been a long slow economic transition for them. They do not have the air forces that the other NATO member states have because they can’t really afford them. Which, because they’re part of NATO, they don’t need to. Or didn’t. The Baltic states bring other things to the alliance. One of them is providing some of the best capabilities for dealing with information warfare and influence operations in the Information Environment, especially within the Cyber Domain; as well as counter Cyber crime and Cyber warfare capabilities. But any response to repeated Russian violations of their air spaces means the expenditure of resources they don’t have. And that’s were NATO comes in. Every time a NATO member state has to respond in support of one of the Baltic States, as well as Poland and Romania, they’re burning resources. Aviation fuel, maintenance costs for their aircraft, flight hours, etc. We need to keep in mind that part of Putin’s/Russia’s objective is to economically exhaust the NATO member states by forcing them to respond to these excursions thereby leveling the playing field between NATO, its member states, and Russia.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
It Is Vital That This Week Strengthen the World’s Resolve for Robust Action – Address by the President
21 September 2025 – 21:01
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
We are now preparing for a very intense week – a week of diplomacy. We can accomplish a lot if our partners hear us and support proposals that truly bring the end of the war closer. It will be the week of the UN General Assembly – with various events and meetings. The schedule already includes nearly two dozen meetings with leaders from different countries, from all parts of the world – with everyone who has long supported Ukraine and those who are among our new partners. The first meetings are already tomorrow. We are also planning a meeting with the President of the United States this week. There will be an important event on the return of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia – a truly global summit on this issue. It is vital that this week strengthen the world’s resolve for robust action – for without strength, peace will not prevail.
The European Union has already agreed in principle on the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, and we expect its swift adoption. In recent weeks, other countries – from Japan and Australia to the United Kingdom – have also imposed sanctions. Pressure on Russia’s oil fleet, on Russia’s energy trade. Pressure on all of Russia’s sanction-evasion schemes – including through cryptocurrency. I thank Europe for this pressure. I am confident: there must be a step from the United States. Putin must believe that the United States does care, and that strong action will follow.
I want to thank both the United States and all our partners for the effectiveness of the PURL initiative – our new initiative that enables the purchase of American weapons using funds from NATO partners. This includes missiles for Patriot systems, for HIMARS, and other weaponry – all very effective. In October, we expect to provide additional funding for this initiative. We also have our first proposals for partners regarding the export of Ukrainian weapons – modern ones; this will be a controlled export of our weapons, including naval drones. The security of sea routes is an integral part of overall security, and it depends on many nations. Ukraine is offering all its reliable partners our technologies that have already helped us in the Black Sea. We look forward to robust contracts. We are also preparing new long-term steps for Ukraine’s financial stability – and this concerns, first and foremost, Russian assets. Russian assets must work more for defending against Russian aggression and for rebuilding our country. We will discuss this with our partners as well.
Today, there were already several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi: the border areas, the front, and our counteroffensive operation in the area of Dobropillia and Pokrovsk. I want to thank all our warriors, I want to thank every unit for their results and for the truly strong defense of our state and our independence. Next week must further strengthen both our diplomatic positions and our army – this is essential.
Glory to Ukraine!
Georgia:
Georgia’s propaganda behemoth is UK-based. And needs to be sanctioned as soon as possible.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s…— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 4:50 AM
I won’t get tired of saying that I’d never think Armenia would become a refuge to many many Georgians fighting against the autocratic takeover.
Happy Independence Day, Armenia.
— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 10:05 AM
🟥Media founder and prominent Georgian journalist Mzia Amaglobeli has been unlawfully imprisoned for 253 days.
💢She is the first journalist in #Georgia to be recognized as a prisoner of conscience since the end of Soviet times.
freemzia.com
#Journalismisnotacrime
#FreeMzia #RepressionInGeorgia— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) September 21, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Moldova:
A BBC investigation exposed a Russian-backed operation spreading disinformation ahead of Moldova’s 28 September election. Recruits were paid to post fakes, distort polling, and film opponents. The network is linked to Kremlin-aligned, sanctioned oligarch Ilan Shor.
www.bbc.com/news/article…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Shor’s been funding this for at least the past two years.
NATO:
British Typhoons have flown their first NATO sortie under Operation Eastern Sentry, patrolling Polish airspace in response to the recent Russian drone violation.
www.gov.uk/government/n…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 5:33 AM
NATO scrambles German Eurofighters over the Baltic after Russian Il-20M spy plane detected without flight plan or radio contact. The Luftwaffe identified the aircraft visually after launch from Rostock-Laage.
www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deut…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 10:53 AM
The US:
REPORTER: Will you help depend Poland and the Baltic states from Russia if Russia keeps escalating?
TRUMP: Yeah, I would
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) September 21, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Back to Ukraine.
In the data on drone and missile strikes by fascist Russia on democratic Ukraine since Trump took office, you can literally see Putin test Trump, gauge the reaction, and then test more – each time raising the intensity of his attacks.
— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Russia launched over 1,500 drones, 1,280 guided bombs, and 50 missiles at Ukraine over the past week, Zelensky said. More than 132,000 foreign components were found in this weaponry — including from Europe, the US, China, Japan, and others.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 5:22 AM
The frontline communities are enduring daily bombardments that hardly make it to the news anymore. But the war doesn’t pause for weekends. Today, russians shelled Kostiantynivka with MLRS, drones and artillery, killing two and injuring three.
russia is a terrorist state.
— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Interception of the Russian Lancet loitering munition captured by the second interceptor.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 6:07 AM
UPD: Ukraine’s TLK-1000 underwater drone features four neural networks—optical, thermal, acoustic, and inertial—and uses AI navigation with Doppler sensors. It’s built with either composite or metal hulls for deep or shallow missions, Defense Express reports.
defence-ua.com/news/tajemni…— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Over two weeks, the Sky Wars unit of Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade destroyed 23 Russian reconnaissance drones, including Zala, Supercam, Molniya-2, and Herber models, using FPV drones adapted for both day and night missions across the Kursk and northern Slobozhanshchyna sectors.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 9:53 AM
A sudden blast hit the Kadyrovites.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Meanwhile in Tokyo: Ukrainian high jump legend Yaroslava Mahuchikh is making headlines not for breaking records (though she does that too), but for curling up in a sleeping bag mid-competition. 😴👑
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 20, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Chernihiv:
❗️Russian troops now drop explosives from drones onto passing civilian vehicles.
— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 7:47 AM
Kindrativka, Donetsk Oblast:
According to Russian sources: Ukrainian forces have expanded their presence north of Kindrativka toward Kostiantynivka. Based on current assessments, the area in yellow on the map is now very likely under Ukrainian control.
— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) September 21, 2025 at 4:04 AM
Myrnohrad, Donetsk Oblast:
This is what Myrnohrad in Donetsk region looks like. a town near Pokrovsk, where Ukraine’s Armed Forces are holding the line
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Russian occupied Crimea:
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) struck three Mi-8 helicopters and a “Nebo-U” radar system in Crimea.
Pretty😍!— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Russian Mi-8 helicopter destroyed by a precise Ukrainian drone strike in Crimea.
— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 3:24 AM
Just now, a strike was reported on the southern coast of Crimea, presumably in the area of the Foros sanatorium.
(44.3897744, 33.7860935)— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Marinka, Donetsk Oblast:
Marinka, Ukraine 2020 vs 2024. Go ahead and zoom. See for yourself what russia is doing with Ukrainian towns and cities.
— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 3:30 PM
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:
Footage shows a Russian drone being shot down over Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region today.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 1:43 PM
Kadiivka, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
Fuel keeps getting harder to find in Russia — another gas station went up in flames, this time in occupied Kadiivka, Luhansk region.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Sumy Oblast:
Ukrainian drone operators from the TALION unit of the 101st Brigade posted new footage from near Yablunivka in Sumy region.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 11:38 AM
Eastern Ukraine:
A Ukrainian MiG-29 crew took out ten Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine with a precision-guided GBU-62 strike.
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 10:51 AM
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Yesterday, Russia fired a cruise missile directly into an apartment building in Dnipro, Ukraine’s 3rd largest city. The Hachiko team jumped into action to bring food & water to pets who were displaced after the attack. Grateful for their quick work 🙏
— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) September 21, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Open thread!
Medium Cool – Desert Island Companions
BretH
A clean house is a wonderful thing. Thanks for the update, Adam. Question: might there be a silver lining to the Air Force scrambles in that these are not just training missions but live on-the-job training? Maybe expensive in the short term but paying dividends farther out?
Adam L Silverman
@BretH: At one level yes, some practical experience. But there will be a point where there will be diminishing returns.
David Collier-Brown
Slow, predictable escalation, starting with warnings, escorts out of no fly-zones and continuing with closer and closer antiaircraft fire.
Jay
Thank you, Adam.
Adam L Silverman
@Jay: You’re welcome.
jackmac
Adam, thank you, as always, for your brilliant and indispensable daily postings!
Just an observation here, but the reference to Putin/Russia attempting to “economically exhaust” NATO countries with these incursions strikes me as desperation from a country that faces its own economic exhaustion as Ukraine continues to pound (and diminish) Russia’s critical oil industry and capacity.
Andrya
Thanks for doing this, Adam, and a happy Rosh Hashanah!
Carlo Graziani
It is certainly true that Russian incursions drive NATO state resource usage. But it is also true that after 3.5 years of full-out war, Russia is by far the more resource-constrained party in this exchange. So, if the Russians have decided to raise resource-commitment stakes now, they need a pretty strong reason, because ultimately it will cost European states less of their disposable resources to defend against incursions than it costs Russian disposable resources to commit them.
Broken record time: the reason is that the Ukrainian Oil Plan has the Kremlin scared shitless. Not only have the Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refineries and pipelines reduced Russian refining capacity by 17% since August, and caused their pipeline authority to warn oil producers to expect lower acceptance capacity for the forseeable future: oil revenues constitute about 30% of the Russian state budget. And from the Russian perspective, the great and fearful unknown is how fast can Ukraine grow its domestic drone industry in range, payload, and output. They are almost certainly asking themselves, if Iran could gain such comparative advantage from investment in drone development over such a short time, what can they expect from the maturing Ukrainian drone industry over the next year?
Prior to the roll-out of a major air defense upgrade—which is probably in development now—the Russians are basically helpless in the face of an effort that now seems plausibly capable of choking off up to 30% of state revenue. That’s no joke, even without going into the domestic difficulties associated with gas and heating fuel shortages. Putin would be an idiot not to be panicking now, and while he is a monster, he is not an idiot. Any change in Russian war strategy now must necessarily be read in this context. If Russia suddenly wants to put new strain on NATO, it is because of the new strain that Russis is suddenly experiencing itself. Russia would like NATO powers to help end the war on terms they find acceptable. That, in my opinion, is the real reason for these new attacks, and the reason that they are happpening now. The Ukrainians have changed the strategic outlook of this war since August. The Russians are reacting,
Adam L Silverman
@jackmac: You’re welcome.
Adam L Silverman
@Andrya: You’re welcome. And thank you.
Gin & Tonic
Note: Yaroslava Mahuchikh is relaxed, maybe asleep, in a sleeping bag, but she is not “curled up.”
Jay
nitter.poast.org/JPLindsley/status/1969749086145577048#m
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: I did not write the skeet.
Sister Inspired Revolver of Freedom
Thank you Adam.
Westyny
Thank you, Adam.
AlaskaReader
Thanks Adam
Doug
For what it’s worth, Estonia’s GDP per capita is nearly equal to Spain’s, and Lithuania’s is on par with Portugal’s. Latvia is close to Greece on the same measure. Estonia’s per-capita GDP is more than double Russia’s.
What the Baltics are, though, is small. The three republics’ combined population is about 2/3 that of metro Chicago. A modern air force is a big undertaking, and although they have similar levels of wealth, it’s one thing for a Spain of nearly 50 million people to field one, but quite another for Estonia with less than 1/25 as many.
As Carlo Grziani notes at 8 above, the Russian side is the one with the resource constraints. There’s no way that Russia can out-spend even the European NATO partners. (Russia’s GDP is less than the Benelux countries plus Denmark.) What it can hope to do is to raise costs above what European office-holders want to bother with, and to continue to meddle in domestic politics to boost people who think that Europe shouldn’t bother with Ukraine at all.
YY_Sima Qian
@Adam L Silverman: The tactic is reminiscent of the PRC “spamming” Japanese & Taiwanese “Air Defense Identification Zones” w/ manned & unmanned aircraft, w/ rapidly rising intensity over the pasts decade+.
As the PRC “intrusions” started to ramp up, both Japanese & Taiwanese militaries vowed to respond vigorously to each instance. The Japanese Air Self Defense Force even declared that it would scramble 4 fighters to every PRC aircraft nearing the disputed air & maritime space around the Diaoyu/Sensaku Islands. However, both quickly found that such vigorous response was unsustainable. Just the PRC Eastern Theater Command facing Taiwan & Okinawa had more military aircraft (including a burgeoning roster of drones) than the RoCAF & the JASDF in the region combined, & w/ generally much newer airframes. The PLA has 4 other theaters commands to draw resources from, while the JASDF also has to contend w/ Russian probing in the north & the occasional contest of wills w/ South Korea. Both the RoCAF & the JASDF saw exploding fuel & maintenance costs, rapid aging of airframes, & exhaustion of air & ground crews, so both had to significantly draw down the scale of their responses to such daily “incursions”.
Of course, the “Air Defense Identification Zones” established by Japan, Taiwan (& the PRC, South Korea & the US) are unilaterally drawn lines on maps w/ no standing in international law, which is why I put “intrusion” in quotes. It is different in nature to repeated Russian violations of sovereign air space of NATO countries.
YY_Sima Qian
@Doug: I think one aspect that has come to the fore again in light of the war of attrition in Ukraine & the Great Power Competition across the Pacific is the severe limitations of nominal GDP as a measure of national power, particularly for war making (& the potential thereof). What matter is not the nominal fiat currently different countries can spend, but the qty. (& quality) of materiel these countries can acquire for the spend. Decades of excessive financialization has padded nominal GDP figures that do not translate into war making potential. Likewise w/ the service industries that dominates the economies of most of the “advanced developed” economies.
Fortunately, Russia is perhaps only marginally more self-reliant when it comes to its war production compared to Ukraine & NATO, so the PRC & Western components & dual use tools/materiel still need to be bought w/ hard currency. Thus, Ukrainian success in constricting Russia’s means for exporting oil to earn that hard currency does & will hurt.
However, I posit that the inability to date of Western countries (including the US) to ramp up production to aid Ukraine, rearm Europe, & slow the shift in balance of power in the Western Pacific is due to lack of both will & means. There are real constraints in skilled labor & industrial base that won’t be solved in the short term. It is not a coincidence that South Korea has emerged as a mini-arsenal. SK still maintains an advanced, diverse & deep industrial base (2/ the labor force to match), whose defenses contractors have not spent decades driving up the inflation in prices of weapons & munitions, to realize shareholder value at the tax payers’ expense.