“Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
— Vladimir Lenin
Sorry for the delay, been a busy week, but I wanted to take a few moments and do the promised post on what is going on with Russia and Ukraine.
Reports have been trickling in from a variety of sources that Russia has been repositioning significant military assets near its western border with Ukraine. This has followed an increase over the past ten days or so of Russian Information and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU.
While the Russian Ministry of Defense did announce military exercises along the border, these satellite images of the known Pogonovo training ground are worth pointing out amid heightened tensions between Russia and and Ukraine. https://t.co/73J1vLnSMs
— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) April 8, 2021
Alongside the Iskander, which likely belongs to the 119 Missile Brigade, @JanesINTEL has identified an influx of Central Military District troops to Vorenezh:
‣ 74th and 35th Motorized Brigades
‣ 120th Artillery Brigade
‣ 6th Tank Regimenthttps://t.co/Nm0opK90pg— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) April 8, 2021
The official US position is that this is just repositioning for a military exercise:
A US official tells CNN that the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, but that they are conducting training and exercises and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action.https://t.co/JXNL0VuwP7 pic.twitter.com/uLXebN0YeP
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 8, 2021
This includes reports that Russia has mobilized all of its military assets everywhere.
This is actually a full mobilization of the Russian armed forces into combat readiness.
Everything from sleepy Siberian depots and air force bases to nuclear submarines and the tank divisions.#Russia https://t.co/ihO3Gxyh6m
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 6, 2021
And, of course, the Information Warfare and Psychological Operations are in full swing:
In Russian state TV, experts gladly discuss Russian nuclear strike in case of further escalation in Ukraine. “This will make Americans fear and we will be able to do what we want” – is the main message. pic.twitter.com/eEcbUg6U2B
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 6, 2021
Yes, this is what they love to discuss. One friend of mine used to say “whoever Russia fights, it always imagines it fights the US troops”.
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 6, 2021
Under Biden, games are over.
Instead of laughing about Trump’s embarrassing subservience to Putin, grim-faced experts on state TV anticipate harsh measures against the Kremlin by the Biden administration.
“We could end up living like we’re in Iran"https://t.co/kN4YZyQWY6
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 6, 2021
What I specifically think is going on with Russia vis a vis Ukraine is something similar to what we saw back in late Winter/early Spring of 2014 before Putin moved on eastern Ukraine and Crimea once the Olympics were over. Basic maskirovka principles of diversion. Russian media has been going 24/7 on and on about how Ukraine has mobilized additional assets and is preparing to take back eastern Ukraine and, perhaps, even Crimea by force. And that the US is going to move military assets into Ukraine, which is just hyperbolic fantasy for domestic Russian consumption.
The reporting also includes an explicit threat presented as real concern that this could become a tactical nuclear war, which ignores the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have nukes. But it is effective in the Information domain of reinforcing actual Russian military doctrine that, if the Russian military is unable to win a conventional fight, then Russia will use its nuclear weapons tactically to reverse conditions in the battle space. Putting out this type of information is itself part of Russia’s Information Operations/PSYOP doctrine for setting the battle space ahead of military operations. The purpose of this is to freeze the US and NATO from taking action because neither are willing to risk a nuclear strike by Russia or escalation to a nuclear exchange. I’m not really sure this information warfare is effective, but it is in line with Russia’s military doctrine of using Information warfare and PSYOP to set the battle space ahead of actual military operation at the same time that they are physically preparing to set the theater of operations.
At the same time, all of this also provides a convenient way for Putin to change the topic from the fact that Navalny appears to have contracted either COVID or TB from the other inmates on his cell block, that they’re torturing him using sleep deprivation, and that he’s now in the infirmary as a result of a combination of whatever respiratory infection/disease he’s contracted and the effects of his hunger strike.
Russia’s build up and increased Information warfare and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU is also not happening in a vacuum. The Russians and the PRC are in fact quietly collaborating. We’ve been watching it in real time in Libya where the Russian backed Libyan general is being supported by not only Wagner mercenaries, but also Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group, which is wholly owned by the PRC. The attempted coup in Jordan?* We already know one of Prince’s Israeli associates was involved. And Prince is the bridging node here between the PRC/Xi and MBS of Saudi and MBZ of the Emirates, who appear to have been behind the coup. So I have no doubt that there is, at least, informal coordination by Putin and Xi, as well as regional players like Muhammed bin Salman, Muhammed bin Zayed, and Bibi because all of them suddenly are facing a very different strategic reality with the Biden administration than they did with Trump who didn’t actually give a damn about any of this stuff beyond being able to have these authoritarians say nice things about him while they took advantage of him.
One final point: this is basically the equivalent, by Putin and Xi at the geo-strategic level and Muhammed bin Salman and Muhammed bin Zayed and Bibi at the regional strategic level, of the bad guys increasing operations during a Relief in Place/Transfer of Authority (RIP/TOA) just as the outgoing units are almost out of the area of operations (AOR) and the incoming units are just fully taking control as the left seat/right seat ride comes to an end.
And in Putin’s case it conforms to Lenin’s statement: “Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
Right now Putin, as well as XI, Bibi, Muhammed bin Salman, Muhammed bin Zayed, and everyone else is probing to see what Biden and his team will do. In Putin’s case it is entirely possible that he is high on his own misinformation and agitprop supply that Biden is some sort of addled, neurologically ill mental case that is being taken advantage of by Ron Klain, Kamala Harris, and Tony Blinken who are really running the US government. Regardless, all of these bad actors, even the ones like Saudi, the UAE, and Israel that are supposedly partners and clients, are probing. If they find steel, they’ll withdraw. If they find mush, they’ll proceed.
That said, I’d like to see us call Putin’s bluff. The US Army has recently stood back up V Corps. It should be temporarily relocated to Kyiv and it should be plussed up with the 1st Armored Division and the rapid response brigade combat team – the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team – should be brought from FT Bliss and Vicenza respectively to keep them company. Operational Detachments Alpha (ODAs) from the 10th Special Forces Group, Civil Affairs Teams Alpha (CAT-As), and theater strategic Psychological Operations Teams should be added as enablers from Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR). Let the conventional elements train with our Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners. Have the 10th Group bubbas do some Foreign Internal Defense training, the CAT-As do some military support to government work, and the PSYOPers conduct some counter-Psychological Operations with their Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners.
Open thread!
* It’s been a busy week. I’m nowhere near caught up, but hope to be by tomorrow noon. So I’ll hopefully get to the Jordan post I promised sometime this weekend.
raven
yo
David ? ☘The Establishment☘? Koch
/translated
wow – the coveted number 2 slot
Gin & Tonic
Good post, Adam, and good links. But there appear to be some indications that the imminent threat has de-escalated somewhat earlier today (it’s the middle of the night there now.) I’m too tired to go into more detail right now, though.
Steve in the ATL
@raven: where’s the Masters thread?
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL: Don’t they stop playing when it gets dark?
Rob
Scary
RobertDSC-Mac Mini
Back in my heavy military fiction reading days, I remember reading that some Soviet theorists suggested that tactical nukes could help them win. I thought it was too far fetched and a work of fiction. Now it’s not and that’s scary.
Steve in the ATL
@Gin & Tonic: yes, but people still talk about how the day went—how about Justin Rose?!—and how tomorrow will go—will Kevin Kisner make his move? Never a dull moment when you’re talking about golf!
Steve in the ATL
@RobertDSC-Mac Mini: what’s the point of having nukes if you don’t use them?
/TFG in 2017
Gin & Tonic
@Steve in the ATL: You and I may not share the same definition of the word “dull.”
trollhattan
Goddamn Vlad, President for
lifenow way past life, lost his Donny squeaky toy and now wants to test handsome Joe? Ukraine doesn’t need this shit.trollhattan
@Gin & Tonic:
Also, too, isn’t it, you know, golf? Which we now learn one must drive really fast [in-car drive] in order to be best golf player.
frosty
@Steve in the ATL: Never? Never?? That word is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
The only thing worse than playing golf is talking about golf.
M31
They’d have to be really high on the good stuff if they not only think that Biden is addle-pated, but that Klain, Harris, and Blinken are the competency equivalent of Jared
TomatoQueen
*insert ‘this is fine’ doggie here
Cameron
This might be a good time to re-affirm the treaty with Iran, since apparently it’s not just our adversaries who are our adversaries, but our “friends” as well.
Adam L Silverman
@Gin & Tonic: That’s two of us!
StringOnAStick
Thanks, Adam. I read about the Russian troop build up earlier today and it certainly raised my level of concern; thank you for providing context. Putin is quite put out with not having tRump to parade in a dog collar on the world stage anymore.
Adam L Silverman
@Steve in the ATL: @Gin & Tonic: It’s going well…
The Moar You Know
Running distraction for the imminent attack on Taiwan by the PRC. Which will leave us in a hell of a shit position.
Jay
Given the demonstrated failures of Russian/Soviet air defences in Libya and Armenia , I would suggest plausible deniability drone and airstrikes in support of Ukraine, when “The Little Green Men” cross the border into the LPR and DPR.
The OSCE is reporting that most of their unarmed drones are grounded due to jamming, and they are unable to monitor and report on the current situation.
Same thing could happen to some of the forward positioned “DPR” and “LPR” “folks”.
HalfAssedHomesteader
I’m guessing one known unknown is which side the Republican party take.
Mathguy
Can Floriduh man get any more stupid? Gaetz must have a negative IQ.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gaetz-paid-accused-sex-trafficker-who-then-venmod-teen?ref=home
sanjeevs
China is exerting more pressure on the Philippines with their ‘trawlers’.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3128510/south-china-sea-beijing-accuses-philippines-hype-over-chinese
Meanwhile the Duterte admin is trying to use Chinese vaccine diplomacy to justify his appeasement
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2021/04/07/2089569/where-uncle-sam-now-roque-twits-us-top-covax-funder
Doug R
Yeah, I hear Covid is hitting Russia pretty hard. Seems dumb to start a war when you don’t have any spare hospital beds.
Cheryl Rofer
@Gin & Tonic: Dmitri Trenin, the head of Carnegie’s Moscow Center, agrees with you.
Michael Kofman is a great follow on Twitter. He knows Russian military equipment like nobody else I know, and he does his best to get into Russian thinking. As of a few days ago, he was concerned. Hasn’t added any further comment since then.
ETA: Also, too, this is not a good time of day for me to do a lot of thinking.
M31
“Probe with marshmallow Peeps, if it goes right through, proceed, as you are dealing with a member of the Trump family” — Lenin
Adam L Silverman
@Cheryl Rofer:
Me neither. But it was either do the post now or never get to it.
Steve in the ATL
@Adam L Silverman: whoever had that on a prop bet made a fortune!
Jay
Another Scott
Ctrl-F “elections”. Not found.
(I’m no expert, but I hope those who know the region and the politics well will chime in.)
There’s apparently been lots of weirdness going on with the Duma and election laws for the last year or so.
Putin and his team are worried about Navalny and what his popularity means. Putin has often used external (and internal) “threats” to increase his power.
More than testing Biden, I think this is about trying to cement his power before the election in spite of Russians’ distrust of their home-grown vaccine, the economic difficulties, the lack of hope in having sanctions lifted, etc., etc.
With all of that said, we do have to respond to his provocations and not give him free rein wherever he wants to throw Little Green Men around. I hope and expect that Biden, Blinken, and Austin will respond in a way that does not leave Putin with all the initiative cards.
Thanks.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jay
Jay
ronno2018
Good god are you suggesting USA send troops to the Ukraine? NEVER NEVER NEVER.
I want Putin out but that is too far to go. He will die eventually but Russia is so effed up, you need to let happen naturally. STAY AWAY FROM RUSSIA.
Jay
@ronno2018:
US and NATO troops are already in Ukraine, on training missions and joint exercises.
Adam is just suggesting that the Russian “training exercises” be met and matched.
Omnes Omnibus
@ronno2018: Ukraine is not Russia.
Mai Naem mobile
You know what? With Biden as POTUS, I don’t worry about this stuff. With TFG I felt like I had to follow everything. Now, I feel like I can take a mental break. Not saying, Biden is perfect or he isn’t going to make mistakes but you damn well know he’s not going to intentionally put the US in danger .
SiubhanDuinne
@frosty:
Talking about golf = a good conversation spoiled. — Mark Twain
Poe Larity
@Omnes Omnibus: For now.
SiubhanDuinne
@Adam L Silverman:
Man! The euphemisms kids these days come up with!
Jay
@Mai Naem mobile:
the issue with people like Putin, is that simple counter moves can result in unintended consequences, as the Russian response might not be a levelling up layer of escalation.
Kent
Russia has a GDP that is smaller than the state of Texas. And it has been stagnating compared to the US. In other words, every year they fall further and further behind. I can’t imagine this constant war-footing and military buildup is helping their economy. What does Russia even produce that the rest of the world wants other than oil and arms? Both Nigeria and Venezuela are dripping in oil and look how much good it has done for them
China, on the other hand….
Jay
@Kent:
Putin doesn’t care about Russia.
all he is concerned with is maintaining the kakistocracy that keeps him in power.
He’s deflecting from Nalvany, Covid and destroying Russia’s weak democracy with threats of a new war and feeding Russian paranoia.
Morzer
Putin, like Kim Jong Un, is the head of a crime family that also happens to be a government. He’ll act up to get attention, but if he meets a resolute response he’s not going to risk an actual war against superior firepower, because that’s the quickest way to wreck himself and his gang.
Mention was made of China’s posturing near Taiwan – I suspect this is more of an attempt to block other countries from acknowledging Taiwan as an independent state than anything else. If Xi had wanted to attack Taiwan, Trump’s chaotically corrupt and lazy last six months would have been a much better bet than any time in Biden’s first term.
burnspbesq
@Jay:
‘That’s bullshit. It’s black-letter law that bills aren’t privileged unless they actually reveal privileged communications. If that ruling was made without the benefit of in camera review, it’s reversible error.
James E Powell
@burnspbesq:
Can the bankruptcy trustee waive privilege?
ronno2018
@Jay: Looking around I see no evidence of NATO troops in Ukraine.
Do you have evidence of such a thing?
Jay
@burnspbesq:
yup, if somebody pushes, legally, pretty sure it will come out that the NRA paid Russian spy, Marina Butina’s legal costs.
Jay
@ronno2018:
I have friends there, right now.
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-unifier.html
really dude,
PeakVT
No. The West European democracies can do a gut check and decide whether the territorial integrity of countries in their immediate neighborhood matters. We should give them assistance if they request it. But having US troops take the lead is just insanity. America needs to take care of America first and foremost. Over 560,000 Americans have died of COVID since the pandemic has begun. There is no reason to add to the toll of these horrible two years over some dull farmland thousands of miles away.
Richard
@Another Scott: I have essentially lived in Ukraine since 2001 using it as a base for my consulting work. Unfortunately, I’ve been outside the country for more than a year but keep pretty good track of what is going on there and the region in general.
Putin has some serious domestic problems looming on the horizon and he needs to distract the public from Navalny, protests about the economy and a deteriorating currency. He normally does this with a foreign “enemy at the gates” type of move and in this case, it is Ukraine and NATO.
Internal Russian propaganda is in high gear, talking about NATO with Ukraine launching an attack and allowing the state-run media to seriously discuss a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Putin also has a dream of creating a grouping in western Russia that includes Belarus and Ukraine that can counter NATO. He cannot afford Ukraine to succeed because the permanent loss of Ukraine, even as an ally, does actually relegate Russia to third world status with nuclear weapons. Russia’s influence would be greatly reduced everywhere.
Does he intend to attack Ukraine? Unlikely at this point as we are in mud season. In addition, Russia’s conscription rotates every April and it takes time to bring new troops to combat readiness, not to mention that there are simply not enough troops at this point poised for an attack. Furthermore, a full-scale assault, even in late May, would end any negotiating leverage he has with the EU and would likely result in more sanctions.
So, right now he is sabre-rattling. Keep in mind that western forces are also on the move and in a few months joint military exercises will be taking place inside Ukraine. Right now, the USS Eisenhower task force has moved into the eastern Med and is within missile range of Ukraine’s borders with Russia and occupied Crimea.
So, I don’t really think that Russia will launch a full assault even though Putin desperately wants Ukraine. But, expect escalation in the Donbas in May/June. It puts pressure on President Zelensky because he promised peace during his campaign. The Minsk deal is now dead which suits Putin because when the ground hardens and foliage comes out, Russian teams can move beyond the front lines and be more aggressive. The situation will worsen.
Cermet
So, if NATO has troops in the Ukraine then 1) makes sense putin the ass wipe would want to have war games on the Ukraine boarder and 2) would want to add extra troops to protect russia.
NATO troops do not belong in the Ukraine; it would be insane for any NATO troops to fight russian troops – massive nuclear powers do not fight each other except for life or death reasons. NATO troops directly on russia’s most easily attacked/hardest to defend region isn’t a place one should threaten without expecting a strong russian response.
If the US wants to push, add troops to Germany and add/improve air defenses. That both sends a message and puts pressure on putin the ass wipe in a manner that does not directly confronts russia nor its sense of securiety.
raven
@Cermet: Ukraine.
New Deal democrat
The problem I have with this post is simple: why wouldn’t Putin and Xi (Taiwan) not have made their moves while Trump was in office, and there was much less risk of a robust US response? (See, Hong Kong)
Why wait until there is a thoroughly experienced US President in office?
J R in WV
The only thing worse than playing golf is watching others play golf. Like watching grass grow, only slower.
J R in WV
@ronno2018:
How did I miss putting this nym into the pie safe?
Ukraine = Russia?
Nope. That’s what Putin WANTS, not what he has.
Another Scott
@Richard: Thanks for the report.
Good luck going forward.
Cheers,
Scott.
WaterGirl
@Richard: Wow, thanks for all that great information.