Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

Since we are repeating ourselves, let me just say fuck that.

Their shamelessness is their super power.

When you’re in more danger from the IDF than from Russian shelling, that’s really bad.

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Stand up, dammit!

Never give a known liar the benefit of the doubt.

Republicans: The threats are dire, but my tickets are non-refundable!

Giving in to doom is how authoritarians win.

They love authoritarianism, but only when they get to be the authoritarians.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

The National Guard is not Batman.

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

Thanks to your bullshit, we are now under siege.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / War for Ukraine Day 648: The Clock Ticks in Kyiv While Those in DC & Brussels Dither

War for Ukraine Day 648: The Clock Ticks in Kyiv While Those in DC & Brussels Dither

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As the winter campaign in Ukraine begins, the strategic failures in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of Europe are becoming a major problem.

NATO General Secretary @jensstoltenberg: we must be ready for bad news, too. This is a war of attrition, battle for effectiveness, battle for logistics. Increasing ammunition production plays a decisive role. The more we support Ukraine, the sooner this war will end.

We must understand that the victory of president Putin will become a tragedy for Ukraine but it will be dangerous for us, as well.

 

https://twitter.com/EHunterChristie/status/1731347922829054201

This is an estimate based on observation of facts on the ground. But it seems a fair-minded exercise to assume it is accurate and, on that basis, to ask the White House the following questions:
– Why were only ~ 20 missiles transferred?
– What is the current reasoning regarding possible further deliveries?
– What about the longer-range, more recent version of the ATACMS? Why has USG not seen fit to transfer those to Ukraine so far?

👍👍👍Ex-head of the CIA Petrius analyzes why there was no breakthrough in the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

We have seen our delays in providing military equipment to Ukraine, our tanks have only recently reached them.

➡️Our delay in making decisions about the M1 (Abrams),
➡️delays with the approval of Leopard tanks,
➡️we delayed decisions on cluster munitions, which could have been very useful,
➡️missile systems with a longer radius of action for rocket systems of salvo fire,
➡️and finally, Western-style airplanes

Retired General David Petraeus lists these factors as to why this year’s counteroffensive failed.

🟢 “Our military doctrine says that in order to break through the types of defenses that we saw in the south (and I don’t think anyone really realized or appreciated the depth of the minefields, and that Russia did a very good defensive part, several lines of defense, etc. ), our doctrine says that this requires air superiority as well as many other capabilities. And we didn’t give it to the Ukrainians”, – David Petraeus in an interview with “Voice of America”

P.S. He is absolutely right.
Error detected – then make it better from now on.
Begin with #ATACMSforUkraine and #TaurusForUkraine

From The Financial Times:

EU leaders risk leaving Ukraine empty-handed at a perilous moment in its war against Russia as divisions over finances threaten a €50bn lifeline for Kyiv and Hungary vows to thwart its EU membership talks.

Disputes within the EU over money and Ukraine’s future are endangering crucial pledges to Kyiv made months ago — just when the flow of US financial and military support for Ukraine has abruptly stalled in a politically divided Congress.

EU member states are far from reaching a deal over topping up the bloc’s joint budget — including €50bn for Ukraine — ahead of a summit in Brussels on December 14-15, said officials involved in the discussions.

EU efforts to reach a compromise are being hampered by the victory of a far-right party in last month’s Dutch election and a recent German court ruling curbing the government’s borrowing. A budget agreement would be “very, very difficult”, a senior official said.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s proposed $60bn package is struggling to pass through Congress.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Friday again vowed to veto the start of Ukraine’s EU membership talks, telling public radio it was “contrary to the interests of several member states” and accession might only be possible “many years from now”.

“We are in a good enough shape to dare say so, no matter the pressure we come under,” he said.

A failure to approve long-term funding, a separate €20bn facility for weapons purchases and the start of accession negotiations would be a hammer blow to Kyiv after the failure of its summer counteroffensive and growing concern about faltering western support. Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister, last week described the EU summit as an “existential moment” for her country.

“It is crucial that the continued support for Ukraine remains and that we Europeans play our role,” Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told the Financial Times.

Ukraine has warned that the uncertainty over US and European support packages is putting the country’s “macro-financial stability” at risk. The €50bn proposed by the EU is designed to keep Kyiv solvent to 2027.

“It is a moment of truth,” said an EU official. “If you say you stand by Ukraine, you have to step up to the plate.”

Germany and other states have vowed to give Brussels no additional funds beyond that required for Kyiv, while others are demanding extra cash for domestically sensitive issues such as migration.

Orbán also opposes the funding package. EU officials note that he has relented on Ukraine decisions before and are trying to assess whether he has a price for his support, including the release of some of the €22bn in EU funds blocked by Brussels over rule of law concerns.

EU officials last week indicated that the European Commission was close to unblocking up to €10bn for Budapest, as reforms enacted earlier this year had strengthened judicial independence.

However, Hungarian officials insist there is no link between Ukraine and the funds issue, and EU officials and diplomats say that this time the Hungarian leader seems more implacable.

“There’s a lot of fog that needs to be lifted in the next weeks. And today there’s so much fog that I don’t see very far away what’s coming,” said De Croo.

More at the link!

The Ukrainians are not going to stop fighting, but if they lose this war, if Putin’s genocidal ambitions are achieved, leading to the rest of Europe being threatened, that loss will lay at the feet of the Biden administration and the US Congress, the European Union, and the EU member states. The Ukrainians are not going to give up, but until or unless the senior people in DC, Brussels, and the capitols of the EU member states get their heads in the game, not giving up is not going to be enough.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

3 December 2023 – 20:18

Fellow Ukrainians!

Today, the Russian occupiers struck at Kherson once again. Brutal strikes. Straight at the city… Houses. Streets. Our hospitals. As of now, two people have been reported dead. My condolences to the families and friends. All the wounded have been provided with the necessary assistance.

Altogether, on this day alone, and only in Kherson region, there were more than 20 Russian shelling occasions – similar to those in Kherson, purely terrorist in nature. In the city of Beryslav and in the villages of the region. I extend my gratitude to all the rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, to all the National Police personnel working to eliminate the consequences of the shelling. I am grateful to all the doctors and nurses who are providing assistance. I am grateful to the local authorities and volunteers who do not abandon their cities and communities to their fate.

Intense battles are ongoing in dozens of areas along the entire frontline. The most severe are the Maryinka, Avdiivka and Bakhmut areas. However, it is also difficult in the south and in Kharkiv region.

And every city in Ukraine, where today was a relatively quiet day… Everyone who is now in the rear. Everyone who can afford to spend time at home. Everyone should remember that the battle for the fate of Ukraine continues. It’s not on social media, not in arguments over political matters, not in squabbling. This battle is where Ukrainians need support every day. Specific things that strengthen Ukraine. Things that add strength to our positions, to our state. Things that allow us to respond to the enemy’s attacks with our actions. Active actions. Bold actions.

I thank everyone who does not forget that the frontline requires support every day. I thank everyone who is working for the sake of unwavering, constant, real support. I thank everyone who understands how important it is for our people in the frontline areas and the temporarily occupied territories to feel that Ukraine remembers them. That Ukraine remembers and will not abandon them to the enemy’s destruction. I thank everyone who does not get discouraged and does not waste their precious energy on arguments. Those who work for the national interests. Those who heal and save lives. Those who educate children and genuinely care for their communities’ interests. Those who manufacture weapons and ammunition for our warriors. Those who organize volunteer fundraisers and, against all odds, provide assistance to specific units. I am grateful to everyone who trains our soldiers, both here in Ukraine and in partner countries. Each such training mission is a tangible contribution to the victory that will come. Inevitably. If you do not just believe in it, do not just expect victory from the warriors, but do everything in your power every day so that Ukraine becomes stronger and our collective capabilities increase.

We are already preparing for the next week, and we will definitely expand the capabilities of our state. In particular, our defense industry. We are preparing new military support packages from our partners. Strengthening our air defense, which is a constant priority, is also in progress.

We will definitely retaliate for the occupiers’ terror against our people. We always do.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s more on what the US’s, the EU’s, and NATO’s failure will mean:

The Ukrainians are willing to spend their blood and treasure, all they’re asking is for us to provide the necessary material and equipment. Material and equipment that is overwhelmingly made in the US or in the EU member states, which creates jobs and economic growth in the US and the EU member states. And we CANNOT even be bothered to do much despite doing so resulting in a major victory that would actually stabilize the global system, benefit our own economy, and cost pennies on the dollars.

For those keeping Advent calendars this season:

3rd Day of Ukrainian Advent Calendar

Today, we want to thank our British partners @DefenceHQ. The UK was the first European country to send weapons to the Ukrainian army to repel russian aggression. And we are also grateful for one of the best modern tanks Challenger 2.

The Challenger 2 became an effective weapon in professional hands of Ukrainian warriors. The spectacular combination of 🇬🇧 technology and 🇺🇦 talent helps lo liberate our land from occupiers.

More Weapons of Victory to came tomorrow. You can guess an option in comments.

#StandWithUkraine #UAMoDAdvent

More on the blockade of military equipment being transshipped through Poland:

From EuroIntegration: (machine translation)

Activist of the NGO “Europe without Barriers” Pavlo Kravchuk said that blockers on the Polish border detained the patrol boat SAFE Boats International, which is part of a program of assistance from the US government.

As “European Truth” writes, he reported this on Facebook.

He said blockers representing the anti-Ukrainian party “Confederation” said they had detained and sent a truck with a boat from SAFE Boats at the end of the queue, claiming it was a “yacht road”, designed as humanitarian aid.

Kravchuk said he received a comment from SAFE Boats stating that she had provided 27-foot patrol boats such as the “Cabin with the possibility of bypassing” (Walk Around Cabin) for Ukraine.

“It’s part of a US government assistance program. The vessels provided by SAFE Boats are intended for use as government patrol vessels and are not intended for use as private yachts, – quoted the company’s statement.

The activist noted that he could not claim for sure that under the cover of one of these boats.

“But I consider it very likely that this is the case, and the Confederacy not only causes insane damage to Ukraine’s economy and delays vital supplies indirectly, but also directly blocks military cargo”, – summed up Kravchuk.

Earlier it was reported that Ukrainian drivers of scales waiting for the crossing of the checkpoint “Krakowiec-Korchova” due to the blockade of Polish carriers, decided to suspend the hunger strike after negotiations.

The day before, representatives of the infrastructure authorities of Ukraine and Poland met in Warsaw, discussing measures to lift the blockade of Polish carriers at the border, and already agreed on several points.

It will be recalled that Polish truckers began protest On November 6, demanding that the EU, among other things, restore the licensing system for Ukrainian drivers entering the European Union.

The State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported, that as of Friday morning, there are a total of about 2,100 trucks on the Ukrainian-Polish border in line to enter Ukraine.

Abomination is the least strong word to describe what happens now along Ukraine’s borders with Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary.

Historians of the future will be genuinely shocked to see how petty, delusional, and irresponsible their ancestors were in the darkest hour – and how they brought grief upon themselves AGAIN and AGAIN by being stunningly blind.

Bakhmut:

 

Avdiivka:

In reference to the murder of the two Ukrainian POWs by Russian militants the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, said:

“Our fighters surrendered because they ran out of ammunition, but Russian b*stards shot unarmed soldiers.

Later, the positions of the Russians were covered and all were eliminated.”

#Ukraine #Donetsk #Avdiivka

 

First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

List of huge losses from October continues.

This BMP was destroyed 22.10.23

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Two more BMPs from 19.10.23

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BTR-82A, T-72 tank and what, former BMP or APC?

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More

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More APCs, tanks from 19.10

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BMPs and tanks

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Left T-72, BTR-80 and destroyed BMP-2. Still everything from 19.10

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This looks like Stalingrad movie from the late 90s

Leftovers of destroyed tanks and IFVs

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4 new BTR-82A and one more MTLB

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Extra image
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All of that was from the north. So a little update from the south, Vodiane village👇

Two new T-72B3M tanks

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New T-80BV and some kinda of panorama

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BMP-1 and tanks. You don’t see tanks? Well, there were T-80 and T-64 I assume
Maybe @naalsio26 will correct me

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@naalsio26 Destroyed MTLB, destroyed BMP, damaged and left T-72B and BTS-2/4.

Vodiane village, south of Avdiivka.

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@naalsio26 If you if an opportunity and desire to support our unit fighting in Kherson direction you may support us via BMC:

@naalsio26 I don’t about human losses but @WT3ll published two photos of destroyed enemy infantry there.

U may count. But the point is that we got used to the fact of huge Russian losses. But the point is that they gave a fuck.
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Krynky, left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Magyar’s Birds are hunting!

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1731284662394273830

Moscow:

Mikhail Khodorkovsky has posted a thread where he assesses Putin’s weaknesses. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

Putin’s war against Ukraine is a catalyst for his regime’s eventual fall. It’s a question of when, not if. This war has triggered forces that will lead to the regime’s collapse. The key challenge now is ensuring a democratic transition post-Putin. 2/11 
Peaceful protests alone can’t topple Putin’s regime. We face the hard truth: his removal won’t happen through elections or peaceful means. This necessitates a different approach for change. 3/11 
Prigozhin’s coup attempt was a turning point. Despite no sympathy for him, this event highlighted the regime’s vulnerabilities. It’s a crack in Putin’s armor that we must acknowledge and exploit. 4/11 
The assassination of Prigozhin and his circle signals deep military dissatisfaction and the regime’s fragility. These internal rifts within the power structure are our opportunities for change. 5/11 
Future regime splits are also inevitable. ‘National patriots’ like Prigozhin won’t bring democratization. We, as a democratic opposition, must be ready to dismantle autocracy and uphold democratic values. 6/11 
Overthrowing Putin is crucial, but the aftermath is vital. I am convinced, dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. We need a balanced, democratic future, not fragmentation. 7/11 
Replacing Putin with another ‘good tsar’ isn’t the answer either. Another strongman would continue corruption and repression. Our aim is a federal, democratic Russia, not centralized autocracy. 8/11 
I envision a Russia where power comes from its people and regions, not just Moscow. A federal parliamentary republic could offer inclusive governance, ensuring diverse voices are represented and heard. 9/11 
The exodus of Russia’s brightest is a loss but also a reservoir of potential leaders for a democratic future. We must harness this intellectual capital to build a free, progressive Russia. 10/11 
This is a shorter adaptation from my piece for @KoerberIP, read in full here: 11/11

Here’s Tendar’s take on Khordokovsky’s assessment:

I have read your thread and while I agree with many points you bring up, I disagree with your outlook of a post-imperial Russia where you see danger of the dissolution of Russia. Let me elaborate:

You say that the dissolution of Russia would lead to unstable, nuclear-armed states. From my perspective I currently see only an unstable and nuclear-armed Russia, which is frantically fighting to win another year to be an empire. That implies to neighbor-countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and even Belarus as well as the republics which are currently inside the so-called Russian Federation. Denying them self-determination is the continuation of the flawed and eventually untenable state of imperial grandism which brought us this very problem in the first place.

Putin is only the symptom of the decease. The problem is that this and all previous Russian states were by design empires and the peoples/minorities primarily cannon fodder for the expansionist aims of Moscow. We see it right now in Ukraine, where disproportionately minorities are sent to die for a lost cause while their lands are getting scarred by mining as well as oil and gas exploitation, without much wealth being left in the regions and instead being transferred to bank accounts all around the world. I can hardly believe that they will return to the status quo, especially knowing how little the word of Moscow can be trusted.

The dissolution or continuation of the Russian state will depend entirely on the peoples’ will. Each region and republic must have a referendum whether to stay or leave the Russian state. Everything else will bring us back to square one, with the results we have been witness over and over again. One might ask how Russia would survive without all its colonies which are currently stripped. The answer lies in the people which decide to stay inside Russia. It will be daunting task which will last generations, but unlike what Moscow is doing right now it might have a chance of success, if it is done in good faith.

Imperial Russia is dead. There is no going back. The earlier this is accepted, with all the consequences, the earlier you can rebuild a new world.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There’s no new Patron tweets, so we start with this adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

And we finish with a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Та й таке! #песпатрон

♬ original sound – conorferguson69

Google translates the caption as:

And so! #песпатрон

While DeepL translates the caption as:

And that’s just it! #песпатрон

Open thread!

 

Reader Interactions

66Comments

  4. 4.

    Alison Rose

    I want to scream.

    The Ukrainians are not going to stop fighting, but if they lose this war, if Putin’s genocidal ambitions are achieved, leading to the rest of Europe being threatened, that loss will lay at the feet of the Biden administration and the US Congress, the European Union, and the EU member states.

    If at some point, putin — and I don’t know enough to know if he is this stupid — decided to expand this war to include troops invading/missiles intentionally fired into a NATO country, and then NATO decides “whee time for all of us to go to war now”, I cannot imagine how infuriating and despicable it would look to the Ukrainians who are left. And don’t blather at me about Article 5. I know. I get it. Just because a thing exists doesn’t make it moral. The notion that some countries and peoples aren’t worth saving and others are simply because of who got invited to the Cool Kidz Club and who didn’t is repugnant.

    What did Kramarenko mean about Zelenskyy obviously resigning at some point? Is she referring to term limits, or thinking that if the war starts going worse, he would leave as some sort of mea culpa? Because, I don’t know, the latter would seem ridiculous. Things being harder going now are not solely to blame on him or the soldiers. If they had gotten everything they needed from the beginning, shit would look a lot different now. It seems unfair and cruel to me to say he would need to resign because other Western countries are wimpy isolationists. I doubt the Candyman Poroshenko could have done any better.

    Snowman — Ukrainian Army style.

    Thank you as always, Adam.

  8. 8.

    Another Scott

    This should be a week where we start to see some motion on the Supplemental. Reuters.com (from 11/30):

    WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) – A classified briefing for all U.S. senators on Ukraine, Israel and elements of the national security supplemental funding package requested by President Joe Biden will be conducted on Tuesday, Dec. 5, Senate aides said on Thursday.

    The briefers will include Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General C.Q. Brown and U.S. Agency for International Development Deputy Administrator Isobel Coleman.

    Big guns doing the briefings…

    Slava Ukraini!!

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  10. 10.

    New Deal democrat

    First of all, I agree with the other commenters calling BS on Kasparov. The US wants Ukraine to win, just without starting World War 3, thank you very much.

    As to Patreas, his point that

    “I don’t think anyone really realized or appreciated the depth of the minefields, and that Russia did a very good defensive part, several lines of defense, etc”
     
    completely answers his criticism that 
     
    “this requires air superiority as well as many other capabilities. And we didn’t give it to the Ukrainians.”

    That Ukraine attacked WW1 style trenches and minefields with about the same result this year is sad. I hope the door is not closed on a better result next year.

  11. 11.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Alison Rose: Eventually he’ll step down. Either because he’s completely burned out and knows he’s becoming ineffective or because the war is over and it is time for the next person to lead the Ukrainians in the post war period.

  12. 12.

    Jay

    @Alison Rose:

    at some point in time, absent giving Ukraine what they need to win in short order, Zelenskyy is going to break and Ukraine will break.

    Look at Georgia, Syria, Moldova or Chechnia.

  13. 13.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Another Scott: The problem isn’t the Senate. The Democrats control the Senate. The problem is the House, where the Democrats do not have the majority. The rest of the problem is that the Biden administration assumed they had time to get this done that they did not in fact have. Because they made assumptions about who would control the House after the 2022 midterms. Those assumptions were wrong.

  14. 14.

    Adam L Silverman

    @New Deal democrat: The Ukrainians are fighting this war the only way they can. No American or other NATO allied general would ever do so. The Ukrainians are fighting this war this way because they have no choice. They begged and begged and begged for F16s for over a year. Had Ukrainian pilots and flight crews begun training in 2022 even though a decision on whether to provide them was not made until 2023, then the Ukrainians would have been ready when the decision was made this year. Instead the decision was made after the 2023 counteroffensive began and, since training only started about four to six weeks ago, the Ukrainians won’t get the F16s until next spring at the earliest.

    It’s easy to bitch about Kyiv’s theater strategy given the fact that we tied one of Kyiv’s arms behind their back.

  18. 18.

    Jay

    @New Deal democrat:

    First of all, I agree with the other commenters calling BS on Kasparov. The US wants Ukraine to win, just without starting World War 3, thank you very much.

    As recent history has shown, the Orc’s “Red Lines” are empty threats.

    We have given Ukraine just enough to defend for a while, not enough to win.

    If the current trajectory continues, ruZZia will win, simply because it had no shortage of “meat cubes”, to throw into the fight and the West is filled with vatnicks and 5th Columnists.

    ruZZia will have it’s 4 wasted oblasts added to it, and a quisling Government in Ukraine, while those Ukrainian’s who can get out will.

    The subsequent “refugee crisis” in Western Europe will further tear apart NATO and lead to the rise of more Reichwing Governments.

    After 8 years or so, of ruZZia rearming and enlisting more meat cubes from the broken lands, ruZZia will go after the Baltic States and NATO will shrug, and pretend it never happened.

  19. 19.

    Alison Rose

    @Adam L Silverman: I mean, after the war is over and Ukraine has won, obviously. And certainly I can imagine he’s about two minutes from burnout every day. But it also seems like this is the cause and the fight of his life, and even in the face of everything he remains so steadfast and strong. It’s hard for me to imagine him…I don’t want to say “giving up” but like, tapping out.

  21. 21.

    Adam L Silverman

    @New Deal democrat: We have been in World War III since sometime between when Putin gave his speech at the Munich Security Forum in 2007 – where he declared that war, announced that the US, the EU, and NATO had started it, and that Russia was the victim – and when he rolled into Georgia in the late summer of 2008.

    And we have been losing this war, because far too few people recognize we’re in it, ever since.

  23. 23.

    Bill Arnold

    @Alison Rose:

    Not to speak for Adam, but for myself: he has stated before that WW3 is already here. Most Western nations just refuse to admit it.

    WWIII is generally shorthand for thermonuclear war. That is what I read NDD as meaning.

  24. 24.

    Adam L Silverman

    @Bill Arnold: No, nuclear war is shorthand for thermonuclear war.World War III is a third world war. Which is great power competition with other means.

  25. 25.

    Adam L Silverman

    @New Deal democrat: @Bill Arnold: Here’s Fiona Hill, maybe you’ll believe her:

    Part of the problem is that conceptually, people have a hard time with the idea of a world war. It brings all kinds of horrors to mind — the Holocaust and the detonation of nuclear weapons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the dawning of the nuclear age. But if you think about it, a world war is a great power conflict over territory which overturns the existing international order and where other states find themselves on different sides of the conflict. It involves economic warfare, information warfare, as well as kinetic war.

    We’re in the same situation. Again, Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014, exactly 100 years after Germany invaded Belgium and France — and just in the same way that Hitler seized the Sudetenland, annexed Austria and invaded Poland. We’re having a hard time coming to terms with what we’re dealing with here. This is a great power conflict, the third great power conflict in the European space in a little over a century. It’s the end of the existing world order. Our world is not going to be the same as it was before.

    People worry about this being dangerous hyperbole. But we have to really accept what the situation is to be able to respond appropriately. Each war has been fought differently. Modern wars involve information space and cyberspace, and we’ve seen all of these at play here. And, in the 21st century, these are economic and financial wars. We’re all-in on the financial and economic side of things.

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has turned global energy and food security on its head because of the way Russia is leveraging gas and oil and the blockade Putin has imposed in the Black Sea against Ukrainian grain exports. Russia has not just targeted Ukrainian agricultural production, as well as port facilities for exporting grain, but caused a global food crisis. These are global effects of what is very clearly not just a regional war.

    Keep in mind that Putin himself has used the language of both world wars. He’s talked about the fact that Ukraine did not exist as a state until after World War I, after the dissolution of the Russian Empire and the creation of the Soviet Union. He has blamed the early Soviets for the formation of what he calls an artificial state. Right from the very beginning, Putin himself has said that he is refighting World War II. So, the hyperbole has come from Vladimir Putin, who has said that he’s reversing all of the outcomes territorially from World War I and also, in effect, World War II and the Cold War. He’s not accepting the territorial configuration of Europe as it currently is.

    What we have to figure out now is, how are we going to contend with this?

  26. 26.

    Alison Rose

    @New Deal democrat: I don’t think it’s a derail as it’s on topic, and I don’t mean this in a combative way, but what expertise do you bring? I’m honestly asking, because we know what expertise and knowledge Adam has. If you disagree, I’m curious to know where that is coming from.

  29. 29.

    wjca

    @Jay: As recent history has shown, the Orc’s “Red Lines” are empty threats.

    Yes, we know that.  Now.  Earlier, it was far from certain that it was pure bluster on Putin’s part.

  30. 30.

    schrodingers_cat

    @Omnes Omnibus: I too have wondered about this terminology.

    If this is the Third World War than what was the Cold War? There were several hot wars under its umbrella even then. Soviet Union had a wider reach than Russia has now.

    If that wasn’t a World War why are the current hostilities a World War?

    ETA: Not necessarily a question for you but just what goes through my mind when we are in a third world war dialog comes up.

  31. 31.

    BR

    @Alison Rose: ​
    NDD’s expertise is economics and economic history and there are few out there better at it. I can imagine that this is one of those topics that requires a lot of different points of view.

  32. 32.

    Chris

    @Adam L Silverman:

    The fact that they couldn’t figure out in 2022 that they needed to push as much aid as they could as fast as they could because losing Republican support was a matter of when not if and they might not have a trifecta anymore come January 2023 is not only criminal in the matter of Ukraine, it also doesn’t inspire much confidence for their grasp of U.S. politics.

  33. 33.

    Geoduck

    Saying “the US” wants any specific thing attempts to gloss over how divided and broken we are right now. What “the White House” wants is far from what “the Republican party” wants.

  34. 34.

    jonas

    The EU needs to fucking ditch Hungary and yesterday. Orban is welcome to join Lukashenko in becoming a Putin dignity wraith. Why the Europeans are still putting up with his shit is beyond me…

  35. 35.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think Kasparov is right wrt Ukraine, even though I tend to think he has become a neo-Cold Warrior eager to see the world divided into implacably opposed camps, ignoring how ugly the last Cold War was for everyone involved, including the liberal democracies.

    Russia is engaged in a war of aggression against Ukraine, so there is a clearly definable objective that defeats Russia, & clearly definable means to do so. OTOH, I don’t know what he means when he says the U.S. needs to “defeat” Iran. Where? How? At what cost?

  36. 36.

    wjca

    @Geoduck: Saying “the US” wants any specific thing attempts to gloss over how divided and broken we are right now. What “the White House” wants is far from what “the Republican party” wants.

    Further, what “the Republican party” (as reflected by a majority of Republicans in Congress) wants is far from what the rabid RWNJs there want.  And, for the moment, that tiny minority of a minority appears to control whether Congress will even vote on more aid.  So, the detail that it would pass that vote overwhelmingly?  Just another factoid on how broken the Congress currently is.

  37. 37.

    wjca

    @jonas: Why the Europeans are still putting up with his [Orban’s] shit is beyond me…

    Basically, everybody is reluctant to change the requirement for consensus, lest they be the one overridden next.

    The EU could probably use a process to eject countries which cease to meet the requirements to join.  But building one would, like most things EU, take a long slow process — even once the decision was taken to create such a process.

  38. 38.

    hrprogressive

    Legitimately curious as to what would have to change / need to change for the US, EU, etc. to actually “get their heads in the game” considering we’re coming up – somehow – on the 2nd anniversary of the Feb 22 invasion into the rest of Ukraine.

    I don’t think it’s impossible, but, like, if they weren’t already there by now – What would bring them around?

  39. 39.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @jonas: Not so simple. What is the justification for ejecting Hungary? Is it because Orban regime is pro-Putin, or is it because the Orban illiberal right wing populist (thus anti-liberal democratic)? If the latter, then the EU would have had to eject Poland under PiS, & issue warnings to Sweden & Italy. If the latter, that would transform the EU’s raison d’être into explicitly anti-Russia, as opposed to pro-European integration & pro-liberal democracy (its current purpose). If the latter, would the EU need to eject Slovakia, which just elected a right wing government that campaigned on stopping military aid to Ukraine?

    The EU project is far more than just about Russia.

  40. 40.

    Another Scott

    @wjca: I’m no expert, but what I’m seeing is that Hungary is mostly trying to get various EU sanctions and threats of sanctions removed from parts of its economy, and billions in euros, before letting things happen with NATO expansion and helping Ukraine.

    IOW, it’s politics.

    E.g. AlJazeera.com (from November 10)

    […]

    Unanimity among all member states is required to admit a new country into the bloc, giving Orban a powerful veto. Under the pro-Russian leader, Hungary has often complicated EU efforts to support Ukraine amid Moscow’s invasion, although Orban has eventually nodded to all military and sanctions packages.

    […]

    Orban’s government has refused to supply Ukraine with weapons in its war against Russia and has threatened to veto EU financial aid packages to Kyiv.

    It also accuses Ukraine of violating the rights of an ethnic Hungarian minority in western Ukraine by preventing education in the Hungarian language.

    At the same time, Hungary is in a protracted struggle with the EU over alleged infractions of rule-of-law and human rights standards. This has resulted in billions of euros in EU funds being withheld.

    Hungary has often been accused of using its EU veto to try to force concessions from Brussels. However, Orban denied that Hungary’s opposition to Ukraine’s EU membership talks was connected to the withheld funds.

    He added that his government would “not accept” pressure from the EU to support Ukraine’s membership bid in exchange for having the funds released.

    However, EU officials are exhibiting increasing frustration with Hungary’s manoeuvring. Amid suggestions that Budapest could try to block a proposed $53bn aid package for Ukraine, sources told Reuters on Friday that they can work around any veto.

    “Hungary risks overstretching its luck. We’d prefer to have them on board but there comes a point when people get fed up with Budapest holding everyone hostage,” one said.

    […]

    There, like here, politics (and change) is slow.

    FWIW.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  41. 41.

    RaflW

    @Chris: I am supportive of more military hardware aid, direct money, and I think the F16 decision/training pace was stupidly slow. All that said, I don’t believe pushing through a significantly larger amount of US aid to Ukraine before the 2022 election was going to be a project without its own internal ramifications in American politics.

    It’s the path not taken, so of course I’m just speculating, but the GOP was already sowing dissension about aid abroad when people a hurting at home (a bullshit ‘choice’ but politics is mostly bullshit sounds and yet real impacts). They woulda had a field day and perhaps the narrow House win would have ben wider, who knows.

    I just think presenting the 2022 funding as if it could have been a lot more needs some view abut how fraught our domestic politics already were.

  43. 43.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    @Omnes Omnibus: @Alison Rose:
    Adam has eloquently described his perspective and whether one calls it a “world war” or not it’s clear [to me, anyway] that we [the U.S. and the Western world in general] are under sustained attack from Russia.

    Here in the U.S. it is less obvious than in Ukraine but no less intentional and dangerous.

    I have no clue what to do about it.

  44. 44.

    Another Scott

    @RaflW: Plus, Congress can (and does) claw back money when it changes its mind. (We all remember the GQPers screaming about clawing back unspent pandemic funding.) And when one is buying widgets, all the supply chain and other constraints that we’ve discussed before come into play, so it can’t all be spent at once.

    No present congress can tie the hands of a future congress from doing whatever it wants – especially on the budget.

    Cheers,
    Scott.

  45. 45.

    Mr. Bemused Senior

    [following up]

    Adam, another commenter posted this link some time ago to a report on GRU unit 29155. I wonder, can you comment on how much credence to give it? It looks well researched to me and certainly fits with what little I know.

  49. 49.

    Jay

    @wjca:

    ruZZia has been issuing “Red Lines” since August, 2008, and all have been empty.

    Great, 15 years of empty threats for some, to learn the lesson.

  50. 50.

    Carlo Graziani

    2c worth:

    The “WWIII” terminology is too protean and vague to guide policy, and is rightly ignored by NatSec leadership. The issue is, and always was, escalation risk. And while there may be different risk-costs and risk-benefits that different people may attach to any US aid policy in this war, anyone who believes that the risk is dismissable is an idiot, in my opinion. Certainly, no such person should be allowed to either become a President of the United States or to advise one.

    In my view, those who critique the Biden administration for its alleged risk aversion have not honestly taken onboard the responsibility of the President to protect the country from real threats, including the very real threat of a thermonuclear exchange ensuing from the mismanagment of situations with escalatory potential. None of those critics would be held accountable for a runaway calamity of this kind, but a thoughtful POTUS would hold him- or herself to such account.

    That will be $0.02.

  51. 51.

    Carlo Graziani

    On ATACMS: WTF? Why is 20 supplied munitions considered too few?

    We already know that the US Army inventory of these munitions is very limited, probably around 500 or so, and the condition of their solid fuel rocket engines is sufficiently questionable that a few must be test-fired every year to verify performance. In the most likely peer-level conflicts envisioned at the Pentagon, that’s probably little more than a 2 month supply.

    The PrSM system, intended as a follow-on to ATACMS, is budgeted at its first 50 or so munitions per year authorized beginning in FY2023. Apparently, the Senate Armed Services Committee would like to increase that to 400 per year, as of a hearing last June. Perhaps we will see that production rate in 2025.

    The bottom line is still unchanged since last year: the US is simply not going to empty its ATACMS inventory no matter what Ukraine’s war exigencies may be. It is a miracle that Ukraine is receiving any ATACMS rounds, and they should be used only for targets justifying their extreme scarcity. Bitching about what Ukraine could accomplish with more is just about the most ignorable among the variously-justifiable demands for faster and more abundant supply of better weapons.

  52. 52.

    Traveller

    As to the WWIII Question: It, as a fact as opposed to an idea, seems so outlandish that the mind just reels & and rejects this almost on auto-pilot.

    The problem is, Do I reject this formulation because it is false or, do I turn away because the cognitive dissonance in just those 5 characters is so great that I refuse to give it any any daylight to it at all?

    I don’t want it to be true, even if it….See? That’s the problem, at least for me and maybe many others.

    There is also the very real human tendency to not look at something in hopes it isn’t really that bad and/or if I ignore the problem it will just go away or heal itself….(this doesn’t seem possible with all the current instability in the world…) but we all hope it will somehow get better….and, parenthetically, sometimes it does! Really….but also not so too.)

    I hope Adam is wrong, I respect him and Fiona Hill, but I desperately want both of them to be wrong!

    Best Wishes, Traveller

  53. 53.

    YY_Sima Qian

    I think the current state of affairs wrt Russia is much closer to Cold War, before détente, than a World War as the general public would understand it. I take what Adam & Fiona Hill are saying, I understand the formulation. I just think Cold War serves just as well as a descriptor, w/o causing cognitive dissonance in the general public. There were plenty of grey zone actions & proxy wars by both the US & the USSR around the world. The West helping Ukraine defend against Russian invasion is not that dissimilar from the US/Saudi Arabia/PRC supporting the Mujahideen against the Soviet Army in Afghanistan, the US/PRC/Thailand supporting the royalists & Khmer Rouge against Vietnam in Cambodia, the USSR/PRC supporting North Vietnam against the US & South Vietnam, or the USSR supporting the DPRK & the Chinese “Volunteers” against the UN & the ROK. In Vietnam, Chinese PLA air defense troops directly engaged USAF/USN bombers & shot down hundreds of aircraft. On the Korean Peninsula, Soviet VVS pilots flying in KPAAF or CPVAAF markings directly engaged USAF/USN aircraft & shot down hundreds. The USSR tried hard to influence the domestic politics of the US & other Western countries, & vice versa. Yet, we did not call the Cold War a World War.

    At some level, this is all semantics. The West is certainly engaged in a globe spanning conflict with Russia, since at least 2008, that more often than not fall short of open warfare.

  54. 54.

    Betty

    The West should be so ashamed of itself for this timidity. I wish this post could be in every inbox of everyone in the White House and Congress.

  55. 55.

    Gvg

    @Adam L Silverman: They also have to calculate how doing various things for Ukraine (spending, foreign spending, war spending, defense and likely quick results look to non military professional public) will impact their keeping control of both houses and even the Presidency later. I think it can make them cautious.

    the same calculation is going on in every other country too. Look at some other election changes. And the EU has some immigration and import export voter opinions impacting their elections more than ours which to me seem not quite reality based, almost MAGA like. Very human though.

  56. 56.

    Gvg

    @Gin & Tonic: I think Kasparov has not grown beyond seeing the world as an ex Soviet citizen. He just doesn’t see anything but a continuation of what he understood then. He had some understanding of a certain time, but hasn’t really been insightful of anything since then. I noticed that years ago. It’s kind of sad really. But it does show how horrible things were in the Soviet Union. He is like a living time lock.

  57. 57.

    zhena gogolia

    I’m still seething about that irresponsible, BULLSHIT quote from Kasparov. He knows better, but he doesn’t care.

  58. 58.

    daveNYC

    @Carlo Graziani: 20 is too few because they’ve already used at least 16 of them and would probably very much like to have more that they could use to destroy various whatevers behind the Russian lines.  No such thing as too much ammunition.

     

    And it doesn’t matter if we don’t think we’re engaged with a war against Russia.  Putin certainly does and his opinion counts more than ours.

  60. 60.

    gvg

    @schrodingers_cat: Yes, I don’t think its WWIII yet. Russia has already devolved and China is using them as a test proxy in case they get more serious later.

    This is…something serious but it’s not sure what yet and could still go in a few different directions.

    It is very serious, possibly existential to Russia and Ukraine. I think even the other countries of the USSR both the ones still in it and the ones that got out. Pretty significant to the former Eastern block countries and nearby West. But it still could seem pretty inconsequential to the US if Ukraine wins and maybe even if it doesn’t if it takes long enough because they have exposed how weak they really are.

    Things are shifting around and China is looking more like the next rival axis, not to mention India wants more etc. Climate change is also going to blow up some old patterns.  The cold war was pretty real and hot too. I don’t think I would call this WWIII, even though it is …something significant. I just don’t have a catchy clear name for it.

  62. 62.

    Paul in KY

    @Traveller: I definitely think Putin/Russia have been ratfucking, etc. with us for years.  I certainly think we should be doing the same to them whenever we can.

  63. 63.

    Paul in KY

    @YY_Sima Qian: Generally agree with your post. I just quibble about this line ‘Soviet VVS pilots flying in KPAAF or CPVAAF markings directly engaged USAF/USN aircraft & shot down hundreds.’.

    That means they shot down more than 199 of our aircraft. I’m pretty sure they didn’t get that many.

  64. 64.

    Gin & Tonic

    @Gvg: I rhink he is 100% correct. I think Sullivan/Blinken/Biden are not committed to a Ukrainian military victory, and I think that should be obvious to everyone.

  65. 65.

    YY_Sima Qian

    @Paul in KY: Dead thread, but according to Wikipedia, the US suffered 2,714 aircraft lost through the course of the Korean War. Air combat losses are more nebulous, since the USAF only concedes 139 losses, but there were 777 losses that were “unknown” or “other”. The VVS claimed 1,200 air combat kills, but that is a preposterous figure.

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