If a man comes to kill you, rise early and kill him first.
— Babylonian Talmud, Tractate Berakoth
In a major operational effort, we have thwarted an attack against Israel by the Iranian Quds Force & Shi'ite militias. I reiterate: Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our forces operate in every sector against the Iranian aggression. “If someone rises up to kill you, kill him first.”
— Benjamin Netanyahu (@netanyahu) August 24, 2019
Rise and kill first is adapted from a saying in The Babylonian Talmud, quoted above, that provides the self defense justification if someone breaks into one’s home to kill them. It is also considered to be an unofficial motto, at least, of Israel’s security services, specifically its assassination teams. Which is also the focus and title of Ronen Bergman’s excellent history of Israel’s targeted assassination program. So it should be no surprise that Bibi quotes it in his tweet from earlier today announcing Israeli strikes against Iran’s Quds Force, other Iranian military and militia elements, and, based on some reports, Hezbullah militia elements. It is Bibi’s way of trying to ground what he is doing in Judaic law, which lends an element of religious warfare to today’s strikes, as well as within Israel’s history of striking before it can be struck. And I have no doubt that the Iranians received both of the messages Bibi was transmitting with the final sentence in that tweet.
Report: Israel's Prime Minister went to the Kirya or military HQ during or after the airstrikes southeast of Damascus, the report would indicate how seriously this is being taken and questions about what comes next #breakingnews https://t.co/1OmhkNevyn
— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) August 24, 2019
I guess I'll keep an updated thread if this escalates, these two quotes of interest pic.twitter.com/04YyrBCVGf
— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) August 24, 2019
"The strike targeted Iranian Quds Force operatives and Shiite militias which were preparing to advance attack plans targeting sites in Israel from within Syria over the last number of days.
The thwarted attack included plans to launch a number of armed drones." -IDF— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) August 24, 2019
Syrian state media claims it shot down all the incoming missiles. The first reports were around 11:27 (23:27) PM local time. IDF claimed the incident around midnight. pic.twitter.com/u1PtTvOUqK
— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) August 24, 2019
The closeness of today’s strike to Israel’s upcoming election has not gone unnoticed by Bibi’s unauthorized biographer Anshel Pfeffer.
Interesting correlation between the closeness of an Israeli election and the IDF's sudden eagerness to acknowledge Israel was behind tonight's latest airstrike against Iranian targets in Syria
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) August 24, 2019
Interesting that according to the IDF, while in February 2018 the IRGC used in an armed UAV (which Israel shot down), this time they were apparently planning to use "killer drones" (ie kamikaze drones which are designed to crash and explode on their designated targets)
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) August 24, 2019
There was an unspecified Israeli operation on Thursday to counter the IRGC plan. A phone-call to Putin on Friday and now on Saturday airstrikes against the IRGC in Syria, swiftly followed by a highly irregular announcement by the IDF, and simultaneously a statement by Netanyahu.
— Anshel Pfeffer (@AnshelPfeffer) August 24, 2019
An OpEd published in Iranian media presaged attack of Iranian killer drones, says @LTCJonathan in conference call. "IDF on high alert."
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) August 24, 2019
PM @Netanyahu:"In a major operation, we thwarted an attack against Israel by Iranian Quds force & Shiite militias. I repeat: Iran has no immunity anywhere. Our forces are operating on every front against Iran's aggression. He who rises to kill you, kill him first."[Biblical cite]
— Noga Tarnopolsky (@NTarnopolsky) August 24, 2019
I’ve seen references on social media that Israeli drones have been brought down over Beirut by Hezbullah, but it isn’t a trusted source so take it as RUMINT for the time being. Noga Tarnopolsky has reported that the Israeli Air Force is flying extended/extra combat air patrols and that the Iron Dome missile defense system has been activated in the north of Israel, including the Golan Heights.
As was the case the last several times that Netanyahu ordered strikes, remember he is both the Prime Minister and the Defense Minister, the question will be whether for the time being these are one and done strikes or they begin a pattern of either Iranian-Israeli tit for tat and escalation or if cooler heads prevail. Given that Bibi is fighting not just for his political life, but to be able to leverage his control of the Israeli government to make the investigations into him and the charges against him go away, I would expect to see more strikes. Especially because the Iranians know this. And they know they can provoke him into attacking to prove he’s the best choice in the upcoming Israeli elections to keep Israel safe. The Quds Force commander, Major General Qassem Suleimani, is the best strategist indigenous to the region. I think he’s trying to goad Bibi into overreacting. Into doing something so over the top, so strategically risky that it backfires and blows back not just on Bibi, but also on Israel and Bibi’s US patron: the President. If this is, indeed, Suleimani’s strategy, then it is a risky one. But also one for the potential for great reward.
This could, and likely will, get much worse before it gets better.
Open thread.